A film I have never heard of and just googled. Don't know if it is any good but the cast looks fantastic.
It's absolutely terrible. And I love it to bits. Think a 70's Pertwee Who, then add better effects, increase the amount of UNIT, remove Pertwee, then add Frank Findlay as the Man From The Ministry. Then add space vampires who in their naked form are perky. Very perky. Then blow up London.
It has Peter Firth as a SAS Colonel. Problem is, it's "Dominic Hyde"-era Firth, not the "Spooks" version, so he really hasn't got the gravitas.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
Only seen LibDem posters in North Dorset - I assume the Conservative voters are too embarrassed to advertise the fact. Nothing from Labour either, which lends weight to the idea that the LDs are the main challenger here.
As I said below....Conservatives put their posters out later than other parties, because they invariably get torn down by the other parties.
Or maybe its politically enraged badgers. Taking revenge for the cull. Maybe that's it.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
Interesting language from someone who’s not really anonymous given that he’s going to be a candidate.
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
I suppose the impact of soaring mortgage rates i.e. the Liz Truss Dividend, has hit the gravel driveways of leafy Northumberland, much like everywhere else.
Anecdote: a family member works in high end auto sales and business is good, because HNW individuals are not impacted and are still buying Lambos etc. However, he is inundated with calls from over financed people trying to offload Range Rovers/Land Rovers (which he generally doesn't deal in) because their mortgage costs have soared. These are the people who are going to swing some of these seats.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul and foul.
I think he might give Branthwaite a whirl. He has been superb for Everton this season and – because it's Everton – has had lots of practice at defending!
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
Interesting language from someone who’s not really anonymous given that he’s going to be a candidate.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
Foden has to start. EPL player of the season, just absolutely ripped up at the end of the season. I would say also Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he looked excellent in the friendly the over night (when rest of England were very poor).
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
Defence is shaky as hell. An injury / suspension or two, and it looks really ropey.
Mahoosive nursery fees won't help (2 months at a grand a piece for us coming up), that problem has been solved for the future by Hunt though and replaced by parents with the 'can't get a nursery place' problem.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Sunak won the debate (51 to 49). Crossover would similarly be a ramped headline.
Not sure if this has been discussed yet but Farage has a personal vote and just like the referendum produced a huge turnout from voters to vote leave , I think over 64.5% on turnout at nearly 2/1 is good value given the Farage intervention. I think Reform will get votes significantly from people who would not vote at all otherwise
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
I suppose the impact of soaring mortgage rates i.e. the Liz Truss Dividend, has hit the gravel driveways of leafy Northumberland, much like everywhere else.
Anecdote: a family member works in high end auto sales and business is good, because HNW individuals are not impacted and are still buying Lambos etc. However, he is inundated with calls from over financed people trying to offload Range Rovers/Land Rovers (which he generally doesn't deal in) because their mortgage costs have soared. These are the people who are going to swing some of these seats.
The whole Western car industry is on the brink of collapse at the moment. For a decade and a half it was run on zero interest rates, allowing ordinary people to buy lease premium cars - but now it’s crashing back down to earth, at the same time as regulators are pushing a EV-biased sales mix and the Chinese are turning up to undercut everyone in the mass market.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Sunak won the debate (51 to 49). Crossover would similarly be a ramped headline.
But do you have any evidence that ramped headlines in the tabloid press are able to tranform voting intention?
If so, how can Labour be 20-30% ahead of the Tories?
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Where it might become meaningful is in terms of meeting other people in your social group who are intending to vote Tory/Reform, and social effects that follow from that.
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
Interesting language from someone who’s not really anonymous given that he’s going to be a candidate.
"Fuck the tories" very much captures the zeitgeist and would probably be a net electoral benefit to RP.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
Foden has to start. EPL player of the season, just absolutely ripped up at the end of the season. I would say also Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he looked excellent in the friendly the over night (when rest of England were very poor).
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
It's a tricky one, but I think Southgate won't want to mess around with Bellingham. Foden is very good player to bring off the bench. He could start on the left as well.
I'm obviously biased, but if Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he must be bloody good.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
Foden has to start. EPL player of the season, just absolutely ripped up at the end of the season. I would say also Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he looked excellent in the friendly the over night (when rest of England were very poor).
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
It's a tricky one, but I think Southgate won't want to mess around with Bellingham. Foden is very good player to bring off the bench. He could start on the left as well.
I'm obviously biased, but if Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he must be bloody good.
You start Foden on the left for me as he doe a lot for Man City. Palmer singlehandedly carried Chelsea all season. I think Saka still gets the nod, again he has played well in the big tournaments, but I think Palmer is now next off the rank.
But this is Southgate, we might end up with a back 5, and Bellingham and Rice playing defensive midfield roles.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Where it might become meaningful is in terms of meeting other people in your social group who are intending to vote Tory/Reform, and social effects that follow from that.
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
Perhaps so, but that's nothing to do with people looking at opinion poll figures, spotting a magic number and changing their voting intention en masse.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Sunak won the debate (51 to 49). Crossover would similarly be a ramped headline.
Also a Reform crossover might gain a lot of traction as a headline amongst people who don’t normally follow it much.
Cannot underestimate the name recognition of Farage amongst the otherwise politically unengaged
So if "Fuck the Tories" is bad and "Never Kissed a Tory" is bad, is "Sometimes holding a Tory's hand" just right?
Fuck the Tories is fine. Fuck them and their racist sugar daddy Frank Hester.
FTT is an interestingt strategy in a highly Brexity seat - albeit with the farmers and the fishermen mildly disappointed by the way in which the situation has developed not necessarily to their advantage despite promises.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Where it might become meaningful is in terms of meeting other people in your social group who are intending to vote Tory/Reform, and social effects that follow from that.
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
Perhaps so, but that's nothing to do with people looking at opinion poll figures, spotting a magic number and changing their voting intention en masse.
The mechanism is different, but the effect would be very similar.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Lots of speculation about it, but if what was reported in (I think) The Athletic is true, Holland really is a waste of space.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
IMHO Labour will take Hexham this time. Under 12% swing. Cultural similarities to the Cumbria seats, none Labour currently, all (bar Farron's) set to go Labour this time.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Playing around on Electoral Calculus, I get the Tories on 198 seats with Labour leading by 39-29, which is the best recent Tory poll score and 1pp below the worst recent Labour poll score.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
There is time still for a big shift in the polling. It's just it gets less and less likely each day, and a big shift doesn't have to be a big shift *to* the Tories.
I suspect the chance of a shift away from the Tories is higher than that of a shift to them, simply because of the risk of them descending into panicked chaos.
And that risk becomes greater still if we do see a Faragasm or there are any last minute defections.
By contrast, Labour's strategy is to minimise risk rather than maximise gains, so they're less likely to do anything which might provoke a shift in the polling.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
White is a weird guy. Doesn't like football despite being a footballer and seemingly happy to forego an opportunity to play for his country in a major tournament over some silly falling out.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
But Moray etc is a very Brexity area for Scotland, though.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Lots of speculation about it, but if what was reported in (I think) The Athletic is true, Holland really is a waste of space.
Hmm, I don't think that is true. He had an exceptional background at Crewe bringing through incredible young talent. Then he went to Chelsea and despite them having about 27 different managers, he was actually promoted during that time from reserve to first team coach to assistant manager. My understanding is that he is really the on that devises the tactics.
What I don't think he is so good at is man management. He had a go at being Crewe manager and he awful.
I didn't realise John Sweeney was standing for the Lib Dems. If I was the Lib Dems I am not sure I would want him. He is pretty volatile individual.
Running strongly on an anti-Scientology policy too, he should get rid of that hat he's wearing in his campaign photos, makes him look like the strange bloke on the bus.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Lots of speculation about it, but if what was reported in (I think) The Athletic is true, Holland really is a waste of space.
Hmm, I don't think that is true. He had an exceptional background at Crewe bringing through incredible young talent. Then he went to Chelsea and despite them having about 27 different managers, he was actually promoted during that time from reserve to first team coach to assistant manager. My understanding is that he is really the on that devises the tactics.
What I don't think he is so good at is man management. He had a go at being Crewe manager and he awful.
By asking the players what they do at their clubs...
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
Only seen LibDem posters in North Dorset - I assume the Conservative voters are too embarrassed to advertise the fact. Nothing from Labour either, which lends weight to the idea that the LDs are the main challenger here.
As I said below....Conservatives put their posters out later than other parties, because they invariably get torn down by the other parties.
Or maybe its politically enraged badgers. Taking revenge for the cull. Maybe that's it.
Although I did see a single Tory poster board in Torbay this morning. Maybe badgers don't like the sea?
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
I am fair set to stain myself when we get tory/Fukker cross-over.
Everything Big Rish does seems to make it fucking worse.
Peter Mandelson (yes, I know) actually suggested last week things were so bad the Tories should consider binning Big Rish before the vote
Yes, I took that as pure shit-stirring from Mando. Although he sounds very convincing he must know that such a move would be utterly farcical.
(P.S. he is great on that How to Win an Election podcast. The Fink is decent too. But the weird obsession Chorley has with his own theme tune is nauseating)
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
Why not. Demographic change and a tiredness of the Tories.
Blyth Tory in 2019, Hexham Labour in 2024. It's a funny old world.
Yes. It's a world ripe for either a charismatic demagogue or a once in a lifetime statesman to be PM. At this moment there is zero chance of the first (for which relief much thanks), and a 10%+ chance that SKS is the man we need by way of first class statesman.
I didn't realise John Sweeney was standing for the Lib Dems. If I was the Lib Dems I am not sure I would want him. He is pretty volatile individual.
Running strongly on an anti-Scientology policy too, he should get rid of that hat he's wearing in his campaign photos, makes him look like the strange bloke on the bus.
Well I think he is a bit like the strange bloke on the bus.
I didn't realise John Sweeney was standing for the Lib Dems. If I was the Lib Dems I am not sure I would want him. He is pretty volatile individual.
Yes, he's standing in my constituency against Andrew Mitchell after our usual candidate moved to more promising pastures. I'm a Lib Dem member and have stood as a paper candidate in a previous council election, but I'm not so active these days. I was going to switch my vote tactically to Labour, but have been, I think, tempted back again by a rather moving account of his time in Ukraine. I'm somewhat wary of possible skeletons in his closet though.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
That's their problem. They can't out REFUK the REFUKers.
They can't. Putting myself in the head of a Deplorable (which I can do) I'm voting Farage and Reform, end of. Nothing Sunak says can change that. I can't stand Sunak.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
I am fair set to stain myself when we get tory/Fukker cross-over.
Everything Big Rish does seems to make it fucking worse.
Peter Mandelson (yes, I know) actually suggested last week things were so bad the Tories should consider binning Big Rish before the vote
The trouble is there wouldn’t be consensus on who to pick instead. Plus if you’re the person who gets the short straw in that scenario no way you can argue you are a candidate for PM. Finally no guarantee that it doesn’t make things worse.
Now the election is occurring I think the Tories just have to stick with Sunak and hope.
One thing they could do is publicly fire Levido, because it’s obvious a clown on crack would run a better campaign than he is.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Fieldwork 5-6 June – no 'debate bounce' for Sunak although quite a chunk out of the Labour share that has seemingly gone to LibGrnRef.
Another sub-20% is very bad news as the Tories seemingly have not hit their floor.
As I’ve said elsewhere I expect Reform to do a little worse come the actual election than the polls suggest; my instinct that a good chunk of their VI stems from disillusionment and/or apathy, and apathetic people frequently fail to vote - especially with a party that isn’t really a party, and doesn’t have the GOTV game. Whereas I fully expect a team of six burly men in leisurewear and Ed Davey masks to escort me to the polling booth and make sure I stick my cross next to LD.
Also not hugely surprised that the debate hasn’t changed much. There was so little substance from either leader and the main outtake seems to have been ‘Christ, that was awful television’.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
But Moray etc is a very Brexity area for Scotland, though.
Is it? In 2024?
It was at the time of the vote. Now, disappointment, fishers, farmers ...?
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
Wildly offtopic, but someone pointed me at this the other day.
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
Actually 70mm was used a lot at the time for features Ben Hur south Pacific Lawrence of Arabia Exodus etc. The size of the camera didn't really matter because all the Grand Prix footage is shot from a fixed camera and the only camera movement was an occasional pan. Interesting though to see Monaco without the skyscrapers.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
They've released the 'fed up and just wanted you all to leave us alone' genie
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Foxy is in a Tory seat and wants the Tories out. Yet by voting for a minor party, he increases his chances of getting a Tory MP. Simple mathematics. Not comparable in any way with your seat which is certain Labour.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Like Foxy I can’t see Labour taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston. They only had 5.1% of the vote in Oadby and Wigston in 2023 and were a long way behind in Harborough as well. The LDs are a decent long shot bet at 25-1. The LD candidate Phil Knowles is the Current LD Leader of HDC and very well known locally. It is just not a Labour area.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
They've released the 'fed up and just wanted you all to leave us alone' genie
I think releasing the genie and not being able to control it is a very good analogy for what the Tory party has done to itself over the last decade or so.
Comments
It has Peter Firth as a SAS Colonel. Problem is, it's "Dominic Hyde"-era Firth, not the "Spooks" version, so he really hasn't got the gravitas.
Basically it's...well, here's some short reviews
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZEenkgyrmg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-kkwwWkhro
Or maybe its politically enraged badgers. Taking revenge for the cull. Maybe that's it.
Anecdote: a family member works in high end auto sales and business is good, because HNW individuals are not impacted and are still buying Lambos etc. However, he is inundated with calls from over financed people trying to offload Range Rovers/Land Rovers (which he generally doesn't deal in) because their mortgage costs have soared. These are the people who are going to swing some of these seats.
Pickford/Ramsdale
Walker/Konsa Stones/Dunk Guehi/Gomez Shaw/Trippier
Rice/Wharton Gallagher/Alexander-Arnold
Saka/Palmer Bellingham/Foden Gordon/Eze
Kane/Toney
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
Defence is shaky as hell. An injury / suspension or two, and it looks really ropey.
If so, how can Labour be 20-30% ahead of the Tories?
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
I'm obviously biased, but if Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he must be bloody good.
But this is Southgate, we might end up with a back 5, and Bellingham and Rice playing defensive midfield roles.
Here's my trend prediction from November:
And here's my prediction from March:
Cannot underestimate the name recognition of Farage amongst the otherwise politically unengaged
Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.
Equals worst under Liz Truss.
Highest ever Reform UK %.
Westminster VI (5/6-6/6):
Labour 42% (-4)
Conservative 19% (-1)
Reform UK 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 12% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
And that risk becomes greater still if we do see a Faragasm or there are any last minute defections.
By contrast, Labour's strategy is to minimise risk rather than maximise gains, so they're less likely to do anything which might provoke a shift in the polling.
What I don't think he is so good at is man management. He had a go at being Crewe manager and he awful.
Everything Big Rish does seems to make it fucking worse.
Of course you might get better odds in an hour’s time…
Tied-lowest % of 2019 Conservatives to say they'd vote Conservative again (tying 16/10/22).
Westminster VI, 2019 Conservatives (5-6 June):
Conservative 37% (-5)
Reform 29% (+10)
Labour 19% (-2)
Other 6% (–)
Don't Know 10% (-1)
Changes +/- 31 May-2 June
Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled.
Reform is in SECOND place with voters aged 55-64 and 65+.
Westminster VI, By Age (5-6 June):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 41%
25-34: 26%
35-44: 18%
45-54: 11%
55-64: 18%
65+: 17%
(P.S. he is great on that How to Win an Election podcast. The Fink is decent too. But the weird obsession Chorley has with his own theme tune is nauseating)
NEW: @TimesRadio @JLPartnersPolls focus group with Conservative-to-Reform switchers in Gedling, Ashfield and Derby North
💥 Nigel Farage "positive", "vocal", "outspoken", "arrogant", "refreshing"
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Pretty much Sunak's worst nightmare.
Labour leads by 18% with men and 24% with women.
Reform are SECOND among men.
Westminster VI (5-6 June):
(Men | Women)
Labour (37% | 39%)
Reform UK (19% | 12%)
Conservative (18% | 15%)
Lib Dem (10% | 12%)
Others (10% | 9%)
Don't know (7% | 13%)
Anyone notice the massive lack of Tory branding of any sort on Suella’s campaign video?
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle.
If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win.
If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Now the election is occurring I think the Tories just have to stick with Sunak and hope.
One thing they could do is publicly fire Levido, because it’s obvious a clown on crack would run a better campaign than he is.
(although you've successfully spooked me into scratching 95% of that 0 defections... )
Blue Tory Red Tory same thing.
CON 40
LAB 507
LIB 63
REF 2
GRN 2
SNP 14
PLC 4
LAB majority of 364.
Tories third party.
As I’ve said elsewhere I expect Reform to do a little worse come the actual election than the polls suggest; my instinct that a good chunk of their VI stems from disillusionment and/or apathy, and apathetic people frequently fail to vote - especially with a party that isn’t really a party, and doesn’t have the GOTV game. Whereas I fully expect a team of six burly men in leisurewear and Ed Davey masks to escort me to the polling booth and make sure I stick my cross next to LD.
Also not hugely surprised that the debate hasn’t changed much. There was so little substance from either leader and the main outtake seems to have been ‘Christ, that was awful television’.
And, we appear to be seeing a huge surge in tactical voting.
Per latest Redfield poll:
9% of 2019 Labour voters say they'll vote Lib Dem. That's tons more than I usually see.
Meanwhile, 38% of 2019 Lib Dem voters say they'll vote Labour, meaning still net movement towards Labour from LD.
https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1798741465008607518?s=46
How many of them are of the hard left?
I'm still not totally convinced Starmer himself isn't a lefty in a New Labour coat. Anyone called Keir must be suspect...
Or Soho Plumbers ?
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats