Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
I understand the NHS still use leeches.
For some specific issues, they are the best thing to use.
I thought their proper title was Private Providers
No, they are great for removing extravasated blood etc. My ex-boss had them used to remove blood from around his eye. But rather than be squeamish he was positively chilled about it, being a keen naturalist.
One former Treasury official said: “In the end, not least for demographic reasons, this country is going to have to pay more tax and Labour is going to have to find ways to raise it. The British people are crying out for an honest conversation about this.”
Some in Labour agree that a failure to admit they will have to raise taxes could become a “credibility issue” with the public, business leaders and international investors."
This is why, when Labour do start raising taxes, all this stuff about the Tories being liars will come back to bite them.
Both Parties are going to have to do something to raise tax to raise the money they need. They will not do it by growth, they will not doing it through closing loopholes, effeciency savings or the measures already announced.
People like taxes when they do not affect them so expect more stealth taxes.
Neither party is being honest on this with us. Labour can say the Tories are lying about specifics but they do have uncosted plans and are not telling us how that gap will be filled.
You can't be honest when the current Government has given working people a massive £1600 tax cut that cannot be justified based on spending cuts that don't exist.
Of course can, and you can re-iterate it was a reckless thing to do at this stage and point out the money would be better off put into services if you so wished. Portray labour as the party of fiscal responsibility. But that is fine. Their choice.
They may very well have to deal with the electoral consequences of this at a later date. Saying "we have just come in and things are worse than we expected" just won't cut it and the Tories and their supporters will simply say "we told you so".
It doesn't really matter what 2024 Tory supporters do. They can say whatever. What will matter to Labour in 2028 or whenever is what the switchers do.
Well it will if the accusation stick into 2028/9 and it undermines Labour. Alot will depend on how the economy rebuilds and moves forward and if Labour can actually get some growth.
One former Treasury official said: “In the end, not least for demographic reasons, this country is going to have to pay more tax and Labour is going to have to find ways to raise it. The British people are crying out for an honest conversation about this.”
Some in Labour agree that a failure to admit they will have to raise taxes could become a “credibility issue” with the public, business leaders and international investors."
This is why, when Labour do start raising taxes, all this stuff about the Tories being liars will come back to bite them.
Both Parties are going to have to do something to raise tax to raise the money they need. They will not do it by growth, they will not doing it through closing loopholes, effeciency savings or the measures already announced.
People like taxes when they do not affect them so expect more stealth taxes.
Neither party is being honest on this with us. Labour can say the Tories are lying about specifics but they do have uncosted plans and are not telling us how that gap will be filled.
You can't be honest when the current Government has given working people a massive £1600 tax cut that cannot be justified based on spending cuts that don't exist.
Of course can, and you can re-iterate it was a reckless thing to do at this stage and point out the money would be better off put into services if you so wished. Portray labour as the party of fiscal responsibility. But that is fine. Their choice.
They may very well have to deal with the electoral consequences of this at a later date. Saying "we have just come in and things are worse than we expected" just won't cut it and the Tories and their supporters will simply say "we told you so".
Well your last paragraph worked in 2010. "We have to cut harder and faster because of the mess Labour left us". You PB Tories still get mileage out of Liam Byrne's note
I am no more a Tory than you, and that is, partly, my point. That note of Liam Byrne's still comes back to bite. It shouldn't.
Labour should be open and honest. They are going to win at a canter. Both parties are not being honest with us on tax. They should be.
Why on earth should Labour give the Tories and their media arselickers ammunition . The public don’t want honesty they want to live in a bubble where taxes don’t need to go up and yet services will miraculously improve .
You could say the same about Labour and their media flag wavers and sycophants.
However I think Labour need to think strategically about the next election. This one is won. They are home and dry barring a major miracle.
You are wrong about the public. They are happy for taxes to go up. Just not their own.
I still think Elon needs to change tack slightly for true HEAVY interplanetary ships to ships that will be built in orbit as the risks, physics and material science of big big ships heading through earth's atmosphere is err... risky. But you'll want big ships to lift the materials to orbit - ultimately that's my guess as to what superheavy will be used for - to get the materials for the really big stuff into orbit.
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
That was incredible! It still managed to orient itself for a landing burn despite having a flap practically melted off!
That flap definitely didn’t look like it was going to be much good, but it bloody worked when it mattered. I can’t have been the only one who expected it to depart at some point.
They’ll have got a ridiculous amount of data from that camera and all the telemetry.
Experimental science done live on TV, by people who treat every failure as an opportunity to learn, is really awesome to watch
One former Treasury official said: “In the end, not least for demographic reasons, this country is going to have to pay more tax and Labour is going to have to find ways to raise it. The British people are crying out for an honest conversation about this.”
Some in Labour agree that a failure to admit they will have to raise taxes could become a “credibility issue” with the public, business leaders and international investors."
This is why, when Labour do start raising taxes, all this stuff about the Tories being liars will come back to bite them.
Both Parties are going to have to do something to raise tax to raise the money they need. They will not do it by growth, they will not doing it through closing loopholes, effeciency savings or the measures already announced.
People like taxes when they do not affect them so expect more stealth taxes.
Neither party is being honest on this with us. Labour can say the Tories are lying about specifics but they do have uncosted plans and are not telling us how that gap will be filled.
You can't be honest when the current Government has given working people a massive £1600 tax cut that cannot be justified based on spending cuts that don't exist.
Of course can, and you can re-iterate it was a reckless thing to do at this stage and point out the money would be better off put into services if you so wished. Portray labour as the party of fiscal responsibility. But that is fine. Their choice.
They may very well have to deal with the electoral consequences of this at a later date. Saying "we have just come in and things are worse than we expected" just won't cut it and the Tories and their supporters will simply say "we told you so".
It doesn't really matter what 2024 Tory supporters do. They can say whatever. What will matter to Labour in 2028 or whenever is what the switchers do.
Well it will if the accusation stick into 2028/9 and it undermines Labour. Alot will depend on how the economy rebuilds and moves forward and if Labour can actually get some growth.
One former Treasury official said: “In the end, not least for demographic reasons, this country is going to have to pay more tax and Labour is going to have to find ways to raise it. The British people are crying out for an honest conversation about this.”
Some in Labour agree that a failure to admit they will have to raise taxes could become a “credibility issue” with the public, business leaders and international investors."
This is why, when Labour do start raising taxes, all this stuff about the Tories being liars will come back to bite them.
Both Parties are going to have to do something to raise tax to raise the money they need. They will not do it by growth, they will not doing it through closing loopholes, effeciency savings or the measures already announced.
People like taxes when they do not affect them so expect more stealth taxes.
Neither party is being honest on this with us. Labour can say the Tories are lying about specifics but they do have uncosted plans and are not telling us how that gap will be filled.
You can't be honest when the current Government has given working people a massive £1600 tax cut that cannot be justified based on spending cuts that don't exist.
Of course can, and you can re-iterate it was a reckless thing to do at this stage and point out the money would be better off put into services if you so wished. Portray labour as the party of fiscal responsibility. But that is fine. Their choice.
They may very well have to deal with the electoral consequences of this at a later date. Saying "we have just come in and things are worse than we expected" just won't cut it and the Tories and their supporters will simply say "we told you so".
Well your last paragraph worked in 2010. "We have to cut harder and faster because of the mess Labour left us". You PB Tories still get mileage out of Liam Byrne's note
I am no more a Tory than you, and that is, partly, my point. That note of Liam Byrne's still comes back to bite. It shouldn't.
Labour should be open and honest. They are going to win at a canter. Both parties are not being honest with us on tax. They should be.
Why on earth should Labour give the Tories and their media arselickers ammunition . The public don’t want honesty they want to live in a bubble where taxes don’t need to go up and yet services will miraculously improve .
You could say the same about Labour and their media flag wavers and sycophants.
However I think Labour need to think strategically about the next election. This one is won. They are home and dry barring a major miracle.
You are wrong about the public. They are happy for taxes to go up. Just not their own.
The UK print media are overwhelmingly Tory arselickers . Labour have won zip , not a single vote has been cast and if Labour suddenly decided to lay out the truth to the public about the state of the finances and tax rises needed to fix public services then they’d be far from home and dry .
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
Ironic since a lot of you were talking about the ‘largest object to ever re-enter the earth’s atmosphere’… notwithstanding that a meteor of course doesn’t re-enter!
New Survation at 5:30pm and this surely refers to the ‘extinction level event’ for the Tories
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
Wildly offtopic, but someone pointed me at this the other day.
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
And now Perkins has been nailed by none other than Paula Vennells' lawyer.
I still think Elon needs to change tack slightly for true HEAVY interplanetary ships to ships that will be built in orbit as the risks, physics and material science of big big ships heading through earth's atmosphere is err... risky. But you'll want big ships to lift the materials to orbit - ultimately that's my guess as to what superheavy will be used for - to get the materials for the really big stuff into orbit.
What would you build in orbit?
If you're going to Mars you may as well send your payload direct to Mars than faff around in LEO first.
Ironic since a lot of you were talking about the ‘largest object to ever re-enter the earth’s atmosphere’… notwithstanding that a meteor of course doesn’t re-enter!
New Survation at 5:30pm and this surely refers to the ‘extinction level event’ for the Tories
Lecture (in the field) about this sort of thing in Scotland for those interested: no idea if a precedent for Mr Ross.
I come on to PB for a forensic dissection of the possible election outcome of the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency and whether Lady Lily the Pink might improve upon her performance over previous years and all I find is people blathering on about the Conservative Party, Sir Keir Starmer, and some shenanigans in Scotland of all places.
Let's keep focused people.
I am therefore heading off now and might be back later.
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
Wildly offtopic, but someone pointed me at this the other day.
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
This SpaceX broadcast really is a vertical integration achievement.
Elon's rocket on Elon's social media platform, with the signal provided by his satellites.
He is cunning devil in that respect. Same way as Tesla SuperChargers network are located in many prime spots for charging and has solar / battery powerwall tech to provide power for them, and the starlink is much better for internet on commercial planes than existing satellite tech can either be (and there is ever greater need for fast internet on planes, both from telemetry being send to the ground and passengers wanting it).
The super charger network was carefully located to make long distance trips in EVs easy.
Starlink was as a result of others failing to take the opportunity to launch absurdly cheaply on F9. “If no one else will…”. Other LEO constellation designs assumed infrequent, expensive launch.
The story of the Amazonian tribe who just got internet access from Starlink is quite funny.
It took them six months to be hooked on social media and porn, same as the rest of us.
I still think Elon needs to change tack slightly for true HEAVY interplanetary ships to ships that will be built in orbit as the risks, physics and material science of big big ships heading through earth's atmosphere is err... risky. But you'll want big ships to lift the materials to orbit - ultimately that's my guess as to what superheavy will be used for - to get the materials for the really big stuff into orbit.
What would you build in orbit?
If you're going to Mars you may as well send your payload direct to Mars than faff around in LEO first.
Tbh Mars doesn't really fuss me, but are you familiar with the work of Gerard K O'Neill & John Bernal ?
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
And now Perkins has been nailed by none other than Paula Vennells' lawyer.
Alice caught out lying.
Vennells and Perkins were thick as thieves at the PO, but Perkins cut her old friend adrift in her testimony, and now it seems PV is fighting back.
I still think Elon needs to change tack slightly for true HEAVY interplanetary ships to ships that will be built in orbit as the risks, physics and material science of big big ships heading through earth's atmosphere is err... risky. But you'll want big ships to lift the materials to orbit - ultimately that's my guess as to what superheavy will be used for - to get the materials for the really big stuff into orbit.
What would you build in orbit?
If you're going to Mars you may as well send your payload direct to Mars than faff around in LEO first.
For the same reason the ISS was built in orbit. It would be very difficult to build a rocket big enough to lift all the mass needed for a sizeable Mars mission out of the Earth's gravity well in one go. It's much more practical to take it up bit by bit and build it in LEO, despite the difficulties of building stuff in space.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
One former Treasury official said: “In the end, not least for demographic reasons, this country is going to have to pay more tax and Labour is going to have to find ways to raise it. The British people are crying out for an honest conversation about this.”
Some in Labour agree that a failure to admit they will have to raise taxes could become a “credibility issue” with the public, business leaders and international investors."
This is why, when Labour do start raising taxes, all this stuff about the Tories being liars will come back to bite them.
Both Parties are going to have to do something to raise tax to raise the money they need. They will not do it by growth, they will not doing it through closing loopholes, effeciency savings or the measures already announced.
People like taxes when they do not affect them so expect more stealth taxes.
Neither party is being honest on this with us. Labour can say the Tories are lying about specifics but they do have uncosted plans and are not telling us how that gap will be filled.
You can't be honest when the current Government has given working people a massive £1600 tax cut that cannot be justified based on spending cuts that don't exist.
Of course can, and you can re-iterate it was a reckless thing to do at this stage and point out the money would be better off put into services if you so wished. Portray labour as the party of fiscal responsibility. But that is fine. Their choice.
They may very well have to deal with the electoral consequences of this at a later date. Saying "we have just come in and things are worse than we expected" just won't cut it and the Tories and their supporters will simply say "we told you so".
It doesn't really matter what 2024 Tory supporters do. They can say whatever. What will matter to Labour in 2028 or whenever is what the switchers do.
Well it will if the accusation stick into 2028/9 and it undermines Labour. Alot will depend on how the economy rebuilds and moves forward and if Labour can actually get some growth.
One former Treasury official said: “In the end, not least for demographic reasons, this country is going to have to pay more tax and Labour is going to have to find ways to raise it. The British people are crying out for an honest conversation about this.”
Some in Labour agree that a failure to admit they will have to raise taxes could become a “credibility issue” with the public, business leaders and international investors."
This is why, when Labour do start raising taxes, all this stuff about the Tories being liars will come back to bite them.
Both Parties are going to have to do something to raise tax to raise the money they need. They will not do it by growth, they will not doing it through closing loopholes, effeciency savings or the measures already announced.
People like taxes when they do not affect them so expect more stealth taxes.
Neither party is being honest on this with us. Labour can say the Tories are lying about specifics but they do have uncosted plans and are not telling us how that gap will be filled.
You can't be honest when the current Government has given working people a massive £1600 tax cut that cannot be justified based on spending cuts that don't exist.
Of course can, and you can re-iterate it was a reckless thing to do at this stage and point out the money would be better off put into services if you so wished. Portray labour as the party of fiscal responsibility. But that is fine. Their choice.
They may very well have to deal with the electoral consequences of this at a later date. Saying "we have just come in and things are worse than we expected" just won't cut it and the Tories and their supporters will simply say "we told you so".
Well your last paragraph worked in 2010. "We have to cut harder and faster because of the mess Labour left us". You PB Tories still get mileage out of Liam Byrne's note
I am no more a Tory than you, and that is, partly, my point. That note of Liam Byrne's still comes back to bite. It shouldn't.
Labour should be open and honest. They are going to win at a canter. Both parties are not being honest with us on tax. They should be.
Why on earth should Labour give the Tories and their media arselickers ammunition . The public don’t want honesty they want to live in a bubble where taxes don’t need to go up and yet services will miraculously improve .
You could say the same about Labour and their media flag wavers and sycophants.
However I think Labour need to think strategically about the next election. This one is won. They are home and dry barring a major miracle.
You are wrong about the public. They are happy for taxes to go up. Just not their own.
I imagine "we're home and dry, we should start thinking strategically" is what May's advisors were thinking when they came up with that social care policy. It's not over til it's over, and though I'd like more clarity from Labour I'm not surprised they're taking the course they're taking .
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Moderate Tories are drifting to the LDs and Labour, Right-winger Tories may see the Labour 450+ seats predictions and thinking “Sod it, might as well vote Reform”.
You’re right that I think 18% is high for ‘right now’ but in a week’s time…Give it a few days of headlines in the right-leaning papers putting the idea into more people’s heads that Reform might be a ‘better use of a vote’ ultimately, coupled with a Farage debate appearance on Friday…
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
And now Perkins has been nailed by none other than Paula Vennells' lawyer.
Alice caught out lying.
Vennells and Perkins were thick as thieves at the PO, but Perkins cut her old friend adrift in her testimony, and now it seems PV is fighting back.
Cats in a sack!
Unfortunately none of the real lessons will be learned from this exercise. We will still have a revolving cast of public sector senior executives moving from job to job knowing of how to do any of them.
When it comes to the main cast in this Horizon scandal can’t we just get an enterprising backbencher once this election is over to just put through a bill declaring them guilty.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
I still think Elon needs to change tack slightly for true HEAVY interplanetary ships to ships that will be built in orbit as the risks, physics and material science of big big ships heading through earth's atmosphere is err... risky. But you'll want big ships to lift the materials to orbit - ultimately that's my guess as to what superheavy will be used for - to get the materials for the really big stuff into orbit.
What would you build in orbit?
If you're going to Mars you may as well send your payload direct to Mars than faff around in LEO first.
For the same reason the ISS was built in orbit. It would be very difficult to build a rocket big enough to lift all the mass needed for a sizeable Mars mission out of the Earth's gravity well in one go. It's much more practical to take it up bit by bit and build it in LEO, despite the difficulties of building stuff in space.
There are many reasons. Buzz Aldrin has his Mars Cycler concept : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_cycler , which is both conceptually brilliant and exceptionally troublesome.
Greens, LD, Labour and Workers Party all have local people (Merseyside area) standing. The Conservative candidate however, assuming 'whocanivotefor' website is right, is from Kingston upon Thames - I mean - they're not even trying (then again, they didn't in 2019 either).
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
And now Perkins has been nailed by none other than Paula Vennells' lawyer.
Alice caught out lying.
Vennells and Perkins were thick as thieves at the PO, but Perkins cut her old friend adrift in her testimony, and now it seems PV is fighting back.
Cats in a sack!
Unfortunately none of the real lessons will be learned from this exercise. We will still have a revolving cast of public sector senior executives moving from job to job knowing of how to do any of them.
When it comes to the main cast in this Horizon scandal can’t we just get an enterprising backbencher once this election is over to just put through a bill declaring them guilty.
It would be wonderful, Jim!
But as followers of the saga know all too well, all three main parties have dirty hands in this matter. You think they are going to find themselves guilty?
Just noticed that only 30% would fight to defend the UK from an invasion. Shocking.
That seems high to me. There will be quite a few of those 30% deluding themselves that they can take a life but, when it comes to it, actually can't do it.
I still think Elon needs to change tack slightly for true HEAVY interplanetary ships to ships that will be built in orbit as the risks, physics and material science of big big ships heading through earth's atmosphere is err... risky. But you'll want big ships to lift the materials to orbit - ultimately that's my guess as to what superheavy will be used for - to get the materials for the really big stuff into orbit.
What would you build in orbit?
If you're going to Mars you may as well send your payload direct to Mars than faff around in LEO first.
For the same reason the ISS was built in orbit. It would be very difficult to build a rocket big enough to lift all the mass needed for a sizeable Mars mission out of the Earth's gravity well in one go. It's much more practical to take it up bit by bit and build it in LEO, despite the difficulties of building stuff in space.
You can send most of the equipment for a Mars mission ahead of the people you send, and then you know it has landed safely and is waiting for the crew before you send the crew.
I just don't see any advantage to building a bigger ship in LEO, rather than sending several small ships directly. You massively increase the complexity of the mission by trying to build things in orbit. Absurdly so.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
And now Perkins has been nailed by none other than Paula Vennells' lawyer.
Alice caught out lying.
Vennells and Perkins were thick as thieves at the PO, but Perkins cut her old friend adrift in her testimony, and now it seems PV is fighting back.
Cats in a sack!
Unfortunately none of the real lessons will be learned from this exercise. We will still have a revolving cast of public sector senior executives moving from job to job knowing of how to do any of them.
When it comes to the main cast in this Horizon scandal can’t we just get an enterprising backbencher once this election is over to just put through a bill declaring them guilty.
It would be wonderful, Jim!
But as followers of the saga know all too well, all three main parties have dirty hands in this matter. You think they are going to find themselves guilty?
Of course not but then I’ve long yearned for the resurgence of that mythical creature the independent minded backbencher. Sadly what we get is a parade of identikit nonentities who are manacled by the genitals to the party machine.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
It's a Lib Dem redux from 2015.
With, ironically, the same result - the party is wiped out while its leader fucks off to a cushy job with a tech company in California for a seven-figure salary.
This SpaceX broadcast really is a vertical integration achievement.
Elon's rocket on Elon's social media platform, with the signal provided by his satellites.
He is cunning devil in that respect. Same way as Tesla SuperChargers network are located in many prime spots for charging and has solar / battery powerwall tech to provide power for them, and the starlink is much better for internet on commercial planes than existing satellite tech can either be (and there is ever greater need for fast internet on planes, both from telemetry being send to the ground and passengers wanting it).
The super charger network was carefully located to make long distance trips in EVs easy.
Starlink was as a result of others failing to take the opportunity to launch absurdly cheaply on F9. “If no one else will…”. Other LEO constellation designs assumed infrequent, expensive launch.
The story of the Amazonian tribe who just got internet access from Starlink is quite funny.
It took them six months to be hooked on social media and porn, same as the rest of us.
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
OK, few questions this time, perhaps for obvious reasons. Thank you to all those who commented, and responding to the questions as follows:
@Benpointer. Regarding your "The Formally Constituted Party maybe? Or The Single Constitution Member's Party?". I technically covered this in the "THE NATIONAL PARTY OF REGIONAL PARTIES" category...or at least I think I did. The Conservatives used to be the paradigm of this, being a loose association of constituency parties, then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_and_Unionist_Central_Office_v_Burrell came along and muddied the waters, and (I think) Cameron tightened the organisation in the 2000s. So the answer is...um? This is why I omitted both the Labour and Conservative parties. The expanded version will cover this, if only to describe their power dynamic. @HYUFD probably knows more about this than me, btw. Which incidentally begs the question: who writes the Conservative manifesto in 2024? Ditto Labour?
I'l repeat my answer of earlier so I have them all in one place. Regarding the Australian Coalition of Liberals and Nationals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_(Australia), aka the "Coalition". Yes I think you are right and I am wrong. I attempted to draw a distinction between the more informal US/UK alliances and pacts and the more formal European groups and fraktions, but it didn't really work which is why the CDU/CSU appears twice.
Each article has an expanded version, usually written some months afterwards, where I present a longer version backstage with the errors corrected. I'll include that there. This years expanded versions will be after November 2024 due to the elections and conferences.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Farage and the Brexit Party received a 30.5% share and five and a quarter million votes in the 2019 European elections.
5.25 million votes would be 16% of a 32 million turnout (the number of votes at GE2019), so 18% on a lower turnout isn't implausible.
But I do think that the YouGov numbers for Reform are a bit high. That's what the by-elections suggested.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
In the YouGov with new methodology, putting Reform on 17%, they're on 25% in the Midlands, 21% in the North, 12% London and 16% in the Rest of South.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
Only seen LibDem posters in North Dorset - I assume the Conservative voters are too embarrassed to advertise the fact. Nothing from Labour either, which lends weight to the idea that the LDs are the main challenger here.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
That's their problem. They can't out REFUK the REFUKers.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
It's a Lib Dem redux from 2015.
In 2015 the Lib Dems lost 86% of their MPs.
Entirely possible that could happen to the Tories this year. Would leave them on 51 MPs and probably only just the official opposition but potentially not it.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
There’s also the possibility that the Labour vote in some areas will prove very soft and either stay at home because of a lack of enthusiasm, or actively switch to a non-Tory alternative.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
Electoral Calculus Lab 40% Reform 24% Tories 16% gives Lab 499 and Reform in fourth place on 25 seats.....
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Playing around on Electoral Calculus, I get the Tories on 198 seats with Labour leading by 39-29, which is the best recent Tory poll score and 1pp below the worst recent Labour poll score.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Maguire injured, not training yet and not the quickest at regaining form when coming back so sensible. If fit sure he would have been 1st choice despite his limitations at club level.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul after foul.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
Electoral Calculus Lab 40% Reform 24% Tories 16% gives Lab 499 and Reform in fourth place on 25 seats.....
My guess is that it would become impossible to model seat numbers properly, if Reform UK were to reach 24%. They won 3% in 2019, but they won't be putting on 21% in every constituency. It would be more like a range of almost no change on 2019 to anything up to 40%.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul and foul.
I think he might give Branthwaite a whirl. He has been superb for Everton this season and – because it's Everton – has had lots of practice at defending!
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Maguire is injured and the other options are as good technically but also faster so it’s not a bad problem. Grealish has had a lot less game time this season than those in the same position so not a huge surprise.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
And don't forget, in 1983 the 23 included mostly existing seats or by-election wins. There were only 6 actual gains not counting defectors holding on or by-elections, despite an 11% rise from the Liberal vote in 1979. Reform will do far worse than this, basically they have just Farage and Anderson who might poll much above the average.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul and foul.
I think he might give Branthwaite a whirl. He has been superb for Everton this season and – because it's Everton – has had lots of practice at defending!
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Playing around on Electoral Calculus, I get the Tories on 198 seats with Labour leading by 39-29, which is the best recent Tory poll score and 1pp below the worst recent Labour poll score.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
There is time still for a big shift in the polling. It's just it gets less and less likely each day, and a big shift doesn't have to be a big shift *to* the Tories.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
There’s also the possibility that the Labour vote in some areas will prove very soft and either stay at home because of a lack of enthusiasm, or actively switch to a non-Tory alternative.
Reform could pick up don't knows/won't votes, and some Con - Lab switchers.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot as first off the taxi rank after Foden and Saka. Then there is also Anthony Gordon.
But I don't see Bowen and Dunk better than the ones been cut.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
Electoral Calculus Lab 40% Reform 24% Tories 16% gives Lab 499 and Reform in fourth place on 25 seats.....
My guess is that it would become impossible to model seat numbers properly, if Reform UK were to reach 24%. They won 3% in 2019, but they won't be putting on 21% in every constituency. It would be more like a range of almost no change on 2019 to anything up to 40%.
Agree the model is not at all designed for this sort of change. But a divided right will suffer at least as badly from FPTP as the divided centre left have done over the last few decades. And PR will gain a load of new advocates, as well as losing a few lefty ones.
Apols if this has already been mentioned but that 'new method' YouGov (Lab 40%, Con 19%, RefUK 17%, LDs 10%, Greens 7%) gives us the LDs as Official Opposition according to Electoral Calculus.
If we use the YouGov 'old method' figures (Lab 45%, Con 18%, RefUK 18%, LDs 8%, Greens 6%) the LDs still come out of EC as the Official Opposition, on 8% of the vote. The irony of the Tory handwringing at a FPTP outcome like that would be delicious.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
There’s also the possibility that the Labour vote in some areas will prove very soft and either stay at home because of a lack of enthusiasm, or actively switch to a non-Tory alternative.
I think this last point is possible if Con/Ref crossover happens. Even if it only happens in one poll Farage will stylize the election as him versus Starmer. At that point Labour might regret the slogan 'Change'....
Comments
However I think Labour need to think strategically about the next election. This one is won. They are home and dry barring a major miracle.
You are wrong about the public. They are happy for taxes to go up. Just not their own.
It basically landed upright on the surface of the sea, same as we see the Falcon 9 landings.
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
They’ll have got a ridiculous amount of data from that camera and all the telemetry.
Experimental science done live on TV, by people who treat every failure as an opportunity to learn, is really awesome to watch
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
https://x.com/damiansurvation/status/1798713442628669566?s=46
Ironic since a lot of you were talking about the ‘largest object to ever re-enter the earth’s atmosphere’… notwithstanding that a meteor of course doesn’t re-enter!
New Survation at 5:30pm and this surely refers to the ‘extinction level event’ for the Tories
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
https://youtu.be/2r3gVcwoeyw?si=78Drq_nTgMDzZyz_
Alice caught out lying.
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1798675596416823667
And now with Survation predicting an extinction level event...
Could we see crossover between Con and Ref this afternoon?
If you're going to Mars you may as well send your payload direct to Mars than faff around in LEO first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmOf6TODAL0
Time to double down on the trading bets methinks.
Let's keep focused people.
I am therefore heading off now and might be back later.
x
Back to rocket now.
It took them six months to be hooked on social media and porn, same as the rest of us.
Or would that be a bit like Kentucky Fried Chicken telling their "secret blend of herbs and spices" ?
Cats in a sack!
"what do you know about E.L.E.?"
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
You’re right that I think 18% is high for ‘right now’ but in a week’s time…Give it a few days of headlines in the right-leaning papers putting the idea into more people’s heads that Reform might be a ‘better use of a vote’ ultimately, coupled with a Farage debate appearance on Friday…
*Which is reserved for the Poll Rampers.
When it comes to the main cast in this Horizon scandal can’t we just get an enterprising backbencher once this election is over to just put through a bill declaring them guilty.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Greens, LD, Labour and Workers Party all have local people (Merseyside area) standing.
The Conservative candidate however, assuming 'whocanivotefor' website is right, is from Kingston upon Thames - I mean - they're not even trying (then again, they didn't in 2019 either).
But as followers of the saga know all too well, all three main parties have dirty hands in this matter. You think they are going to find themselves guilty?
Defections might then probably follow.
I just don't see any advantage to building a bigger ship in LEO, rather than sending several small ships directly. You massively increase the complexity of the mission by trying to build things in orbit. Absurdly so.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association
FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
Seems reasonable.
I think the current landscape is broadly:
Pro-Labour 20
Pro-Tory 10
Pro-LD 5
Pro-Refuk 5
Pro-Green 5
Anti-Tory 40
Anti-Labour 15
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
“Was that the primary buffer panel?”
https://youtu.be/i7psUqvZMXs?si=-4bxsvuPoraSZAcM
6 months?
6 hours, more like.
Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed.
Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
@Benpointer. Regarding your "The Formally Constituted Party maybe? Or The Single Constitution Member's Party?". I technically covered this in the "THE NATIONAL PARTY OF REGIONAL PARTIES" category...or at least I think I did. The Conservatives used to be the paradigm of this, being a loose association of constituency parties, then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_and_Unionist_Central_Office_v_Burrell came along and muddied the waters, and (I think) Cameron tightened the organisation in the 2000s. So the answer is...um? This is why I omitted both the Labour and Conservative parties. The expanded version will cover this, if only to describe their power dynamic. @HYUFD probably knows more about this than me, btw. Which incidentally begs the question: who writes the Conservative manifesto in 2024? Ditto Labour?
@BartholomewRoberts, @MartinVegas
I'l repeat my answer of earlier so I have them all in one place. Regarding the Australian Coalition of Liberals and Nationals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_(Australia), aka the "Coalition". Yes I think you are right and I am wrong. I attempted to draw a distinction between the more informal US/UK alliances and pacts and the more formal European groups and fraktions, but it didn't really work which is why the CDU/CSU appears twice.
Each article has an expanded version, usually written some months afterwards, where I present a longer version backstage with the errors corrected. I'll include that there. This years expanded versions will be after November 2024 due to the elections and conferences.
Apologies to anybody I missed.
5.25 million votes would be 16% of a 32 million turnout (the number of votes at GE2019), so 18% on a lower turnout isn't implausible.
But I do think that the YouGov numbers for Reform are a bit high. That's what the by-elections suggested.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
"I Fuck The Tories
drink champagnewhen I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."Entirely possible that could happen to the Tories this year. Would leave them on 51 MPs and probably only just the official opposition but potentially not it.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul after foul.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
But I don't see Bowen and Dunk better than the ones been cut.
https://thecritic.co.uk/pro-parent-policies-can-raise-birth-rates/
If we use the YouGov 'old method' figures (Lab 45%, Con 18%, RefUK 18%, LDs 8%, Greens 6%) the LDs still come out of EC as the Official Opposition, on 8% of the vote. The irony of the Tory handwringing at a FPTP outcome like that would be delicious.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.