Tim Montgomerie hypothesises that the election was called to enforce certain Rishi favoured candidates in seats the Tories think they will hold.
He is right, the snap election has meant CCHQ could impose shortlists of 3 Sunak loyalists whereas if the election was in the autumn local associations could still have picked their own candidates from the approved list and had a local in the final round
Surely Sunak isn't planning to try and remain as leader?
Thanks all again for your advice and thoughts yday. Aunt duly reported to insurance company and let them handle it. Didn't report it to plod but will take advice from insurers.
AUNT UPDATE II: I went round to hers to discuss it all last night and there was a knock on the door. I don't want to dox anyone, least of all myself or my aunt, but she lives in what I would say was one of the nicest streets in one of the nicest parts of her constituency. The door-knocker was a fresh-faced Lab canvasser. I recoiled and recovered only to congratulate him on covering the area. I took a leaflet and bade him farewell and good luck. Lab really are going for it.
Tim Montgomerie hypothesises that the election was called to enforce certain Rishi favoured candidates in seats the Tories think they will hold.
He is right, the snap election has meant CCHQ could impose shortlists of 3 Sunak loyalists whereas if the election was in the autumn local associations could still have picked their own candidates from the approved list and had a local in the final round
Thanks Hyufd for confirming the view I had formed without the benefit of your experience of the Party. July 4th was a shockingly bad call, and driven by internal politics rather than a desire to minimise election losses.
Yes it is all about ensuring the next leader of the Tory Party in opposition is Barclay, Tugendhat or Cleverly not Badenoch, Braverman, Patel or Jenrick by filling safe and lean Tory parliamentary seats where the Tory MP is standing down with Sunak loyalists as candidates
The M&S "is struggling" thing on here this morning is fake news. It's had a very good year. It's true it is closing stores in areas where it does;t trade well. But that is not the same thing!
Is it moral to drop Galloway's candidate in favour of Labour's dropped candidate? I'm not sure. None of the parties' leaderships come out well from this candidate selection, deselection and imposition process across the country.
It's not even clear it will produce good government (or good opposition). If all your MPs think the same way, groupthink is bad. If they all come from running think tanks, then they are used to running things and will not want to be backbench cannon fodder, and they are also likely to have fixed ideas about their areas of expertise.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
There was three reasons for Gething's VoNC on the motion.
1) Accepting a donation from a businessman who has been convicted of environmental crimes. 2) Deleting his Covid-era WhatsApp messages 3) Sacking a minister and not disclosing the reason.
My own view is that 1 and 2 are enough to vote no-confidence. 3 is nothing, a political leader should have free rein to select who they want in their cabinet and that goes if you're PM, FM or just a leader of a district council.
Now, Sunak's taken £15m from someone who wants an MP shot (someone's been sent to prison for threatening Caroline Nokes just yesterday). As you're very exercised over a milkshake, you surely are concerned about people who want people shot? Sunak's deleted his Covid-era WhatsApp messages too.
I don't think that it's good for our politics to point to the other side and say that they do it too so I think that Gething should step down because he has lost his moral authority to lead. This could be a turning point in our politics for the better. I hope that you agree with me that Sunak should at least apologise for his misdeeds.
A rather odd thing about Welsh politics is that outside Wales no-one pays it any attention at all. Just complete zero, totally ignored. NI, RoI, Scotland, all get attention, especially Scotland even though its population is about the same as Yorkshire. Not Wales.
That is because Wales has had one party win most of its seats for longer than any other nation in the democratic world.
You could put a hamster up as FM in Wales with a red rosette and it would win
Yeah he’s an appalling right winger. Attacking boat people, the disabled, people with mental ill-health, LGBGT, climate change etc. etc.
His myopic vision, from his billionaire funded chopper, is to drive Britain to an uncaring, ruthless, exploitative, functionalist, factory.
It’s not the way forward for this country, nor the world. It’s absolutely clear to everyone that this dystopia will do nothing to solve the fundamental, systemic, and global problems we face. He is living in a mindset which has literally nothing to offer for solving what really now concerns people.
All of this confirms to me that if the Tories had a centrist candidate that people like me could vote for, they'd be walking this.
Eh? Sunak is the centrist Tory candidate, centrist Hunt is chancellor, centrist Cameron Foreign Secretary they are leaking to Reform for not being rightwing enough if anything.
I would keep Cammo as Forsec, under Labour. He has been excellent – and is well suited to the role.
Yes, Cammo could serve Starmer or Sunak, both centrist upper middle class Oxford educated liberal meterosexuals like him.
He would draw the line at serving an oik like Farage though
Man of the people Farage was a millionaire City trader from a second tier public school, Dulwich College.
Meanwhile, back at Horizon Inquiry, Mrs Jack Straw continues to give spellbinding evidence.
Nick Wallis provides a regular email commentary for subscribers. It is excellent, but for once I disagree with his assessment of a witness. He portray Perkins as an incompetent, bewildered Chair - 'Perkins in Wonderland'. My own view is that she and the Board were the source of much of the mischief the PO caused. In my experience, when a fish stinks, it does so from the head, and her evidence seemed to confirm this is what happened here.
We need Ms Cyclefree on this one. I think she'd agree with me, but will be happy to be corrected if our leading expert on the scandal thinks otherwise.
My reading of it is that the Board (certainly Perkins) were trying to ensure plausible deniability - and that they are trying to throw Vennells and particularly Crichton under the bus by saying 'we weren't told'. My reading is that they (Perkins in particular) will likelyl have had corridor conversations where something will have been mentioned and the response from here will have been 'Ok, well don't bring that up to the board formally until you have something more concrete' or similar - so the push was 'don't tell us unless there is a clear answer'. This seems to be the entire culture of the place - senior people not asking about things that they should have been curious about, and setting a culture to junior people of 'only bring us solutions, not problems'
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
Again you make sound points. Do I detect a wobble in your Tory vote? Are you heading back into the warm embrace of Wavey Davey?
No. The election being called was a horrible shock. Even though I did predict both the shock announcement and the actual day. I now think he should have waited. Then the polls, and the spread markets, and everyone on PB excited at Conservative wipe out event made me feel sick for a week.
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
I just went for a short walk and a thought occured to me...... Did a young linesman from Morayshire get visited by three witches yesterday? Hail wee Dougie, leader of the Scons Hall wee Dougie MP for Aberdeenshire and Moray East Hail wee Dougie thou shalt be LOTO hereafter......
Does he think given the SNP woes he's gaining seats and can present himself as the face of 'successful Unionism and Conservatism'? Set against carnage in the rest of the UK. Is that what this is all about?
Thanks all again for your advice and thoughts yday. Aunt duly reported to insurance company and let them handle it. Didn't report it to plod but will take advice from insurers.
AUNT UPDATE II: I went round to hers to discuss it all last night and there was a knock on the door. I don't want to dox anyone, least of all myself or my aunt, but she lives in what I would say was one of the nicest streets in one of the nicest parts of her constituency. The door-knocker was a fresh-faced Lab canvasser. I recoiled and recovered only to congratulate him on covering the area. I took a leaflet and bade him farewell and good luck. Lab really are going for it.
Which seat is this?
Although in my seat the canvasser muddles up Rachel Barnes (the candidate) with Rachel Reeves…
Meanwhile, back at Horizon Inquiry, Mrs Jack Straw continues to give spellbinding evidence.
Nick Wallis provides a regular email commentary for subscribers. It is excellent, but for once I disagree with his assessment of a witness. He portray Perkins as an incompetent, bewildered Chair - 'Perkins in Wonderland'. My own view is that she and the Board were the source of much of the mischief the PO caused. In my experience, when a fish stinks, it does so from the head, and her evidence seemed to confirm this is what happened here.
We need Ms Cyclefree on this one. I think she'd agree with me, but will be happy to be corrected if our leading expert on the scandal thinks otherwise.
My reading of it is that the Board (certainly Perkins) were trying to ensure plausible deniability - and that they are trying to throw Vennells and particularly Crichton under the bus by saying 'we weren't told'. My reading is that they (Perkins in particular) will likelyl have had corridor conversations where something will have been mentioned and the response from here will have been 'Ok, well don't bring that up to the board formally until you have something more concrete' or similar - so the push was 'don't tell us unless there is a clear answer'. This seems to be the entire culture of the place - senior people not asking about things that they should have been curious about, and setting a culture to junior people of 'only bring us solutions, not problems'
Thanks, Lennon. Yes, that's about where I am.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the culture was Board-driven.
We may in due course learn the extent to which it was also Civil Service/Government driven, but that part of the story is yet to come.
I just went for a short walk and a thought occured to me...... Did a young linesman from Morayshire get visited by three witches yesterday? Hail wee Dougie, leader of the Scons Hall wee Dougie MP for Aberdeenshire and Moray East Hail wee Dougie thou shalt be LOTO hereafter......
Does he think given the SNP woes he's gaining seats and can present himself as the face of 'successful Unionism and Conservatism'? Set against carnage in the rest of the UK. Is that what this is all about?
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
The Electoral Commission has updated its donations database for Q1 2024. Zero reportable donations to the SNP. Just the regular “short money” allocation from the House of Commons, which is very likely to collapse after the general election.
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
They should call a meeting so everyone can talk it through calmly. Give it a couple of days so cooler heads can prevail. Say, Saturday morning?
The M&S "is struggling" thing on here this morning is fake news. It's had a very good year. It's true it is closing stores in areas where it does;t trade well. But that is not the same thing!
M&S is very often the absolutely last store to leave a town
Boro is a prime example, it lost Debenhams, then House of Fraser but Marks kept going until the lack of footfall made keeping the store open impossible.
Same is true of Sunderland where they recently closed while moving to Washington..
All of this confirms to me that if the Tories had a centrist candidate that people like me could vote for, they'd be walking this.
Eh? Sunak is the centrist Tory candidate, centrist Hunt is chancellor, centrist Cameron Foreign Secretary they are leaking to Reform for not being rightwing enough if anything.
I would keep Cammo as Forsec, under Labour. He has been excellent – and is well suited to the role.
Yes, Cammo could serve Starmer or Sunak, both centrist upper middle class Oxford educated liberal meterosexuals like him.
He would draw the line at serving an oik like Farage though
Man of the people Farage was a millionaire City trader from a second tier public school, Dulwich College.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
The Electoral Commission has updated its donations database for Q1 2024. Zero reportable donations to the SNP. Just the regular “short money” allocation from the House of Commons, which is very likely to collapse after the general election.
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
Seems outrageous on David Duguid quite honestly given how the new seat is 75% his old one.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
On seats though even if Reform are level pegging with the Tories or even slightly ahead of the Tories on voteshare, the Tories still win significantly more seats than Reform, Labour and the LDs however win even more seats with a split right.
Anyway, I suspect his return to leadership was peak Farage in the polls. He will decline as the Starmer v Sunak debates from which he is excluded continue and the Conservatives probably win back a few voters from Reform and the LDs if as is likely the Tory manifesto promises a big IHT cut
I don't think IHT is as unpopular as conservatives think it is. One, because most people are already safe from it because who has half a million worth of assets to gift the next generation that they aren't already having to dip into to make ends meet, and two, because it is the very definition of unearned wealth. Income tax bands you can at least go "I work hard for my money, why should it be taxed so high?", with inheritance it's just a case of rich people passing on their money to their kids so they stay rich.
I will probably have to pay some inheritance tax at some point when my grandparents pass away - they are splitting their only asset (their house) between 7 grandkids and my aunt. The house is only worth the ridiculous amount it is because it is within the M25 and the housing market is stupid. If we have to pay some tax - so be it. Again, I'd rather a functioning society than a bit more change in my pocket. The only people who really gripe about it are those who are already wedded to the "no such thing as society" mentality - the extremely wealthy who are all "I've got mine, Jack". If anything I think lots of people would be fine with inheritance tax increasing, especially on estates over £5 or £10 million.
IHT all depends on what you want to achieve. At the moment it is paid in significant amounts only by the unlucky or the badly advised. Because for most people the threshold is £1 million the issue does not arise. Those with very serious assets have a large industry of lawyers and accountants to turn to. (They would be the principal victims of abolition of IHT. Lincoln's Inn would never be the same again). The law allows massive exemptions and (lawful) planning and avoidances.
IMHO it should apply with fewer exemptions at a much lower rate. Like 10%. 40% is too high.
As with any tax on “wealth”, those with actual wealth plan their lives around avoiding it, so it mostly gets paid by the middle classes who happen to have got lucky on the property market.
In my days in the tax biz, Sandy, it was often referred to as 'the voluntary tax', although as I indicated in an earlier post, not everyone objects to volunteering.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
Again you make sound points. Do I detect a wobble in your Tory vote? Are you heading back into the warm embrace of Wavey Davey?
No. The election being called was a horrible shock. Even though I did predict both the shock announcement and the actual day. I now think he should have waited. Then the polls, and the spread markets, and everyone on PB excited at Conservative wipe out event made me feel sick for a week.
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
As usual, I agree with very little of this.
There's still four weeks to go and plenty of time for events but the current situation remains dire for the Conservatives.
It's not a big journey from 150 to 100 or even 50 if MRP numbers are to be believed (I don't). The topline polls continue to show Labour in the low to mid 40s and the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s. The Conservative objective must now be to finish second in terms of seats (votes don't matter) and remain His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The possibility that may not happen exists if tactical voting plays the part some think it will.
As to what will happen after the election and let's assume for now the Conservatives do finish second with between 100-150 seats (not unreasonable from where we are now). The options will either be to quickly unite behind a new leader (improbable) or have that time-honoured phrase - "a battle for the soul of the party".
Will the Conservatives use their autumn conference as a kind of leadership hustings? Seems reasonable - no one outside the party or forums like this will care very much. Perhaps you should join to have a vote in any membership ballot and try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).
The individual who emerges from that sea of electoral hazard will face a party in ruins and the first question won't be how to deal with Labour or even the LDs but how to deal with Reform - again, let's assume Farage is their sole MP. Will someone like a Braverman basically grovel to him to get him back in the fold - propose a merger between the two parties to fight the common "progressive" enemy?
Here's a thought - the Reform leadership may sound like post-Thatcherites but the Reform membership is or are very different and many of them aren't conservative by any measure.
As we know, leaders "evolve" - look at Kinnock and how he shifted in opposition from 1983 to 1992. When parties become serious about wanting power, they are happy to pick the leader most likely to take them there and the funerla pyre of sacred cows slaughtered on that journey will be impressive.
The Conservative Party which wins back power will be unrecognisable from the one which loses it.
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
Again you make sound points. Do I detect a wobble in your Tory vote? Are you heading back into the warm embrace of Wavey Davey?
No. The election being called was a horrible shock. Even though I did predict both the shock announcement and the actual day. I now think he should have waited. Then the polls, and the spread markets, and everyone on PB excited at Conservative wipe out event made me feel sick for a week.
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
As usual, I agree with very little of this.
There's still four weeks to go and plenty of time for events but the current situation remains dire for the Conservatives.
It's not a big journey from 150 to 100 or even 50 if MRP numbers are to be believed (I don't). The topline polls continue to show Labour in the low to mid 40s and the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s. The Conservative objective must now be to finish second in terms of seats (votes don't matter) and remain His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The possibility that may not happen exists if tactical voting plays the part some think it will.
As to what will happen after the election and let's assume for now the Conservatives do finish second with between 100-150 seats (not unreasonable from where we are now). The options will either be to quickly unite behind a new leader (improbable) or have that time-honoured phrase - "a battle for the soul of the party".
Will the Conservatives use their autumn conference as a kind of leadership hustings? Seems reasonable - no one outside the party or forums like this will care very much. Perhaps you should join to have a vote in any membership ballot and try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).
The individual who emerges from that sea of electoral hazard will face a party in ruins and the first question won't be how to deal with Labour or even the LDs but how to deal with Reform - again, let's assume Farage is their sole MP. Will someone like a Braverman basically grovel to him to get him back in the fold - propose a merger between the two parties to fight the common "progressive" enemy?
Here's a thought - the Reform leadership may sound like post-Thatcherites but the Reform membership is or are very different and many of them aren't conservative by any measure.
As we know, leaders "evolve" - look at Kinnock and how he shifted in opposition from 1983 to 1992. When parties become serious about wanting power, they are happy to pick the leader most likely to take them there and the funerla pyre of sacred cows slaughtered on that journey will be impressive.
The Conservative Party which wins back power will be unrecognisable from the one which loses it.
And that Conservative Party is very unlikely to exist until 2029 at the very earliest (more likely 2032)..
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
Seems outrageous on David Duguid quite honestly given how the new seat is 75% his old one.
He also needs to get all the signatures on his nomination form by 5pm tomorrow - I suspect that will be harder than he thinks given how David has been treated...
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
Again you make sound points. Do I detect a wobble in your Tory vote? Are you heading back into the warm embrace of Wavey Davey?
No. The election being called was a horrible shock. Even though I did predict both the shock announcement and the actual day. I now think he should have waited. Then the polls, and the spread markets, and everyone on PB excited at Conservative wipe out event made me feel sick for a week.
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
As usual, I agree with very little of this.
There's still four weeks to go and plenty of time for events but the current situation remains dire for the Conservatives.
It's not a big journey from 150 to 100 or even 50 if MRP numbers are to be believed (I don't). The topline polls continue to show Labour in the low to mid 40s and the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s. The Conservative objective must now be to finish second in terms of seats (votes don't matter) and remain His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The possibility that may not happen exists if tactical voting plays the part some think it will.
As to what will happen after the election and let's assume for now the Conservatives do finish second with between 100-150 seats (not unreasonable from where we are now). The options will either be to quickly unite behind a new leader (improbable) or have that time-honoured phrase - "a battle for the soul of the party".
Will the Conservatives use their autumn conference as a kind of leadership hustings? Seems reasonable - no one outside the party or forums like this will care very much. Perhaps you should join to have a vote in any membership ballot and try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).
The individual who emerges from that sea of electoral hazard will face a party in ruins and the first question won't be how to deal with Labour or even the LDs but how to deal with Reform - again, let's assume Farage is their sole MP. Will someone like a Braverman basically grovel to him to get him back in the fold - propose a merger between the two parties to fight the common "progressive" enemy?
Here's a thought - the Reform leadership may sound like post-Thatcherites but the Reform membership is or are very different and many of them aren't conservative by any measure.
As we know, leaders "evolve" - look at Kinnock and how he shifted in opposition from 1983 to 1992. When parties become serious about wanting power, they are happy to pick the leader most likely to take them there and the funerla pyre of sacred cows slaughtered on that journey will be impressive.
The Conservative Party which wins back power will be unrecognisable from the one which loses it.
Can you imagine the anti-climax the country will feel if the tories actually won.... another 5 years with this. Even for people who oppose labour, it is clear that something new has to happen.... it cannot go on. it would be a disaster. Even if the tories miracuously won with 1 seat, there would have to be a new GE within 6 months, because (as we all know) the right hates itself so much that it cannot govern.
1,014 GB adults interviewed by phone Fieldwork dates 31st May - 4th June
Much better for the Tories and includes Farage's return as ReformUK leader despite which the Tories are 14% more than Reform still.
Ends with the day of the debate too so any Rishi bounce from that not yet caught
Rishi bounce from a debate he clearly lost says the three debate polls 🤣
I’m expecting a Starmer bounce from his win in the debates.
Every post debate poll had far more thinking Sunak won than the Tory voteshare, even 39% of under 50s thought Rishi won the debate
Firstly, the three polls had Starmer winning the debate. On the only important measure from a leaders debate “which one is lying, which one do you trust most” all the polling put him miles ahead.
Secondly I am calling out your reading across a debate snap poll, to the actual election polling, as absolutely humiliating straw clutching bollocks. When you attempt to do that, are you comparing apples with apples, sheep with sheep? A two horse race compared to multi horse race. Seriously? 🤷♀️
All of this confirms to me that if the Tories had a centrist candidate that people like me could vote for, they'd be walking this.
Eh? Sunak is the centrist Tory candidate, centrist Hunt is chancellor, centrist Cameron Foreign Secretary they are leaking to Reform for not being rightwing enough if anything.
Yes. This is the government that has presided over record immigration, and which scoops up the boat people and puts them in 3 star country hotels. After giving them Dominos pizza.
While talking tough bollocks on immigration.
So they pissed off the socially liberal & illiberal.
Meanwhile the Greek coastguard actually sank migrant boats.
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
Seems outrageous on David Duguid quite honestly given how the new seat is 75% his old one.
He also needs to get all the signatures on his nomination form by 5pm tomorrow - I suspect that will be harder than he thinks given how David has been treated...
He needs to have his paperwork - not just the nomination form - both in and accepted by 4pm tomorrow.
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
I'd love to see some of the middle-England village types trying to communicate with the locals here. Knock knock knock. Door opens: "fit ya wan'?" oh shit, I don't understand what he just said..
Meanwhile, back at Horizon Inquiry, Mrs Jack Straw continues to give spellbinding evidence.
Nick Wallis provides a regular email commentary for subscribers. It is excellent, but for once I disagree with his assessment of a witness. He portray Perkins as an incompetent, bewildered Chair - 'Perkins in Wonderland'. My own view is that she and the Board were the source of much of the mischief the PO caused. In my experience, when a fish stinks, it does so from the head, and her evidence seemed to confirm this is what happened here.
We need Ms Cyclefree on this one. I think she'd agree with me, but will be happy to be corrected if our leading expert on the scandal thinks otherwise.
Part of the NU10K thing is presenting a lack of knowledge of your organisation. You are a victim, as well, of Them*.
Tim Montgomerie hypothesises that the election was called to enforce certain Rishi favoured candidates in seats the Tories think they will hold.
He is right, the snap election has meant CCHQ could impose shortlists of 3 Sunak loyalists whereas if the election was in the autumn local associations could still have picked their own candidates from the approved list and had a local in the final round
Thanks Hyufd for confirming the view I had formed without the benefit of your experience of the Party. July 4th was a shockingly bad call, and driven by internal politics rather than a desire to minimise election losses.
Yes it is all about ensuring the next leader of the Tory Party in opposition is Barclay, Tugendhat or Cleverly not Badenoch, Braverman, Patel or Jenrick by filling safe and lean Tory parliamentary seats where the Tory MP is standing down with Sunak loyalists as candidates
Thanks Huyfd.
Apart from anything else, that is a superb betting post!
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
The M&S "is struggling" thing on here this morning is fake news. It's had a very good year. It's true it is closing stores in areas where it does;t trade well. But that is not the same thing!
M&S is very often the absolutely last store to leave a town
Boro is a prime example, it lost Debenhams, then House of Fraser but Marks kept going until the lack of footfall made keeping the store open impossible.
Same is true of Sunderland where they recently closed while moving to Washington..
Carlisle -small city but with a gigantic rural hinterland both sides of the border - has lost Hs of Fraser and Debenhams, (and Littlewoods and BHS earlier) and the local independent department store, but still has M and S. Primark and Next also present and doing OK.
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
Seems outrageous on David Duguid quite honestly given how the new seat is 75% his old one.
He also needs to get all the signatures on his nomination form by 5pm tomorrow - I suspect that will be harder than he thinks given how David has been treated...
He needs to have his paperwork - not just the nomination form - both in and accepted by 4pm tomorrow.
As someone who has previously been involved with entering elections paperwork (both for myself, and assisting others to do so) for a (very) minor party - I do really hope that somewhere in the country one or more of the main parties end up with either 2 candidates, or 0 candidates - and this looks like a prime spot...
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
I'd love to see some of the middle-England village types trying to communicate with the locals here. Knock knock knock. Door opens: "fit ya wan'?" oh shit, I don't understand what he just said..
"Terribly sorry old chap, but do you speak English?"
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
Again you make sound points. Do I detect a wobble in your Tory vote? Are you heading back into the warm embrace of Wavey Davey?
No. The election being called was a horrible shock. Even though I did predict both the shock announcement and the actual day. I now think he should have waited. Then the polls, and the spread markets, and everyone on PB excited at Conservative wipe out event made me feel sick for a week.
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
As usual, I agree with very little of this.
There's still four weeks to go and plenty of time for events but the current situation remains dire for the Conservatives.
It's not a big journey from 150 to 100 or even 50 if MRP numbers are to be believed (I don't). The topline polls continue to show Labour in the low to mid 40s and the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s. The Conservative objective must now be to finish second in terms of seats (votes don't matter) and remain His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The possibility that may not happen exists if tactical voting plays the part some think it will.
As to what will happen after the election and let's assume for now the Conservatives do finish second with between 100-150 seats (not unreasonable from where we are now). The options will either be to quickly unite behind a new leader (improbable) or have that time-honoured phrase - "a battle for the soul of the party".
Will the Conservatives use their autumn conference as a kind of leadership hustings? Seems reasonable - no one outside the party or forums like this will care very much. Perhaps you should join to have a vote in any membership ballot and try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).
The individual who emerges from that sea of electoral hazard will face a party in ruins and the first question won't be how to deal with Labour or even the LDs but how to deal with Reform - again, let's assume Farage is their sole MP. Will someone like a Braverman basically grovel to him to get him back in the fold - propose a merger between the two parties to fight the common "progressive" enemy?
Here's a thought - the Reform leadership may sound like post-Thatcherites but the Reform membership is or are very different and many of them aren't conservative by any measure.
As we know, leaders "evolve" - look at Kinnock and how he shifted in opposition from 1983 to 1992. When parties become serious about wanting power, they are happy to pick the leader most likely to take them there and the funerla pyre of sacred cows slaughtered on that journey will be impressive.
The Conservative Party which wins back power will be unrecognisable from the one which loses it.
Will it though? Cameron's Tories were more like Major's Tories than the IDS, Howard or even Hague Tories.
Starmer Labour is closer to New Labour than Corbyn Labour. The shift away from the centre really began in Opposition not when power was lost.
Even Kinnock only succeeded Michael Foot not Callaghan
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
Seems outrageous on David Duguid quite honestly given how the new seat is 75% his old one.
He also needs to get all the signatures on his nomination form by 5pm tomorrow - I suspect that will be harder than he thinks given how David has been treated...
He needs to have his paperwork - not just the nomination form - both in and accepted by 4pm tomorrow.
As someone who has previously been involved with entering elections paperwork (both for myself, and assisting others to do so) for a (very) minor party - I do really hope that somewhere in the country one or more of the main parties end up with either 2 candidates, or 0 candidates - and this looks like a prime spot...
It really does and would be exactly what Doug deserves...
Tim Montgomerie hypothesises that the election was called to enforce certain Rishi favoured candidates in seats the Tories think they will hold.
He is right, the snap election has meant CCHQ could impose shortlists of 3 Sunak loyalists whereas if the election was in the autumn local associations could still have picked their own candidates from the approved list and had a local in the final round
Surely Sunak isn't planning to try and remain as leader?
Not a chance. He'd have to be largest party to even have a chance and that's not happening.
There won't be any Sunak loyalists in a month, at best it's about influencing who they might pick as the new leader.
Am I the only one on here that has taken the 8/1 from SkyBet on SKS getting fewer actual votes than the 12.9m in 2017?
Is 8/1 not fantastic value?
No, it could be a good bet if turnout is down..
The last election had 47m registered and a turnout of 67% = c.32m votes. 2017 election had 47m registered and a turnout of 69% = c.33m votes. Corbyn’s 12.9m was 40%
So if we assume 48m registered, but a turnout of say 60% (as in 2001), that’s 28.8m votes in total, so 12.9m votes is just under 45%
At 8/1 that’s actually a pretty good bet. @bigjohnowls
Dont forget the extra 2 million expat voters......
If they register. I haven’t.
But yes, if the denominator goes up, then turnout has to be even lower for the bet to come off.
No idea how the polling companies are dealing with this, seems like a reasonably big bit of extra variance given we don't have much idea if it will be extra 200,000 or 1,000,000 voters and they are presumably harder to poll anyway.
As a UK overseas voter I suspect that this group is a lot more "sticky" than in general. First you have to jump through a few hoops to get registered as an overseas voter, and then return a letter each year to confirm your overseas address. If you move the letter gets sent to your old address so you need to actively change your address (in my constituency at least this is still all done by snail mail). Secondly the day to day politics are more at arms length and so a bigger change in the UK situation is needed to make a chang in the vote.
So I think that overseas registered voters are much more likely to vote (as they have an interest in registering). And that they are much less likely to change their vote from last time.
Until 2015 the highest number of overseas registered voters was 35,000. In 2019 it was 230,000. This year there are an extra 2m eligible.
I would be amazed if the polling companies have this bit right, even if I agree once you are a registered overseas voter you will probably vote for your usual party and vote as long as you are allowed to.
Looking at Reform and Cons polling within 2% of each other (17% and 19% respectively) - what would be a point where between the two of them the showing is relatively good, but both of them collapse in terms of seat numbers due to FPTP? I assume if they both polled equal at ~17% that could potentially stop either party getting any / a significant number of seats. Whilst I am not looking forward to this Labour super majority government, I do feel that the extinction of the Conservative party is a long time coming.
Something like a 3:2 ratio between Refuk and Con vote share would probably be the pessimal point in terms of their combined seat total.
So, 21% Refuk, 14% Con might get them just 9 or 10 seats apiece.
That assumes that voting patterns stay the same otherwise, and that would be far from certain in the face of such a big upheaval in public opinion. If Refuk were able to find a couple of dozen "big beasts", they might be able to start concentrating their vote share in target seats, making them more likely to win.
Deadline for nominations is 4pm tomorrow, though - so they've almost certainly left it too late to pick up on any surge this time round.
For all the talk of the Lib Dems being boosted by tactical voting, nobody has talked about Reform being boosted by tactical voting. Could it happen?
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
I'd love to see some of the middle-England village types trying to communicate with the locals here. Knock knock knock. Door opens: "fit ya wan'?" oh shit, I don't understand what he just said..
"Terribly sorry old chap, but do you speak English?"
Walking away from yet another puzzling conversation: weird how there's lots of Eastern Europeans up here..
Meanwhile, back at Horizon Inquiry, Mrs Jack Straw continues to give spellbinding evidence.
Nick Wallis provides a regular email commentary for subscribers. It is excellent, but for once I disagree with his assessment of a witness. He portray Perkins as an incompetent, bewildered Chair - 'Perkins in Wonderland'. My own view is that she and the Board were the source of much of the mischief the PO caused. In my experience, when a fish stinks, it does so from the head, and her evidence seemed to confirm this is what happened here.
We need Ms Cyclefree on this one. I think she'd agree with me, but will be happy to be corrected if our leading expert on the scandal thinks otherwise.
Part of the NU10K thing is presenting a lack of knowledge of your organisation. You are a victim, as well, of Them*.
The goal is not to know.
*Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs, probably.
Listening to some of the PO Execs giving testimony, you'd think they didn't know the PO sold stamps.
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Ipsos has reform at 9% now.... I am not getting a clear signal.
Old poll.
Nope.... out today... sampled after farage declared to run
Nope. Fieldwork was 31 May - 4 June. Only a single day of that poll was captured after Farage decided to run (he didn't declare until 1630hrs on 3 June!) 75-80% of the fieldwork predates his declaration.
At the PO Inquiry, Alice Perkins just accused Paula Vennells of lying.
Former Post office Chair Alice Perkins is wife of Jack Straw and Labour, former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells was given a CBE by Tory PM Theresa May
Don't think that's relevant - the entire Post Office board is now a sack of cats all trying to pin the blame on anyone who isn't themselves..
It is relevant in the sense that Labour and the Tories, even Davey and the LDs all cannot escape blame for connections to the PO scandal
Everyone is at fault in the PO scandal...
Enough blame to go round a lot of people….
It has puzzled me for a long time how the organisation could be so incompetent and dysfunctional at every level. Perkins' evidence makes it very clear that the Board was at the heart of the problem.
Am I the only one on here that has taken the 8/1 from SkyBet on SKS getting fewer actual votes than the 12.9m in 2017?
Is 8/1 not fantastic value?
No, it could be a good bet if turnout is down..
The last election had 47m registered and a turnout of 67% = c.32m votes. 2017 election had 47m registered and a turnout of 69% = c.33m votes. Corbyn’s 12.9m was 40%
So if we assume 48m registered, but a turnout of say 60% (as in 2001), that’s 28.8m votes in total, so 12.9m votes is just under 45%
At 8/1 that’s actually a pretty good bet. @bigjohnowls
Dont forget the extra 2 million expat voters......
If they register. I haven’t.
But yes, if the denominator goes up, then turnout has to be even lower for the bet to come off.
No idea how the polling companies are dealing with this, seems like a reasonably big bit of extra variance given we don't have much idea if it will be extra 200,000 or 1,000,000 voters and they are presumably harder to poll anyway.
As a UK overseas voter I suspect that this group is a lot more "sticky" than in general. First you have to jump through a few hoops to get registered as an overseas voter, and then return a letter each year to confirm your overseas address. If you move the letter gets sent to your old address so you need to actively change your address (in my constituency at least this is still all done by snail mail). Secondly the day to day politics are more at arms length and so a bigger change in the UK situation is needed to make a chang in the vote.
So I think that overseas registered voters are much more likely to vote (as they have an interest in registering). And that they are much less likely to change their vote from last time.
Until 2015 the highest number of overseas registered voters was 35,000. In 2019 it was 230,000. This year there are an extra 2m eligible.
I would be amazed if the polling companies have this bit right, even if I agree once you are a registered overseas voter you will probably vote for your usual party and vote as long as you are allowed to.
Our son is here visiting us from Vancouver and has no interest in voting in GE 24 even though he has a vote
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Ross is *already* both an MSP and Scottish Tory leader. He had announced he was quitting Westminster to focus on Holyrood. And refereeing. But obviously has changed his mind...
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
Looking at Reform and Cons polling within 2% of each other (17% and 19% respectively) - what would be a point where between the two of them the showing is relatively good, but both of them collapse in terms of seat numbers due to FPTP? I assume if they both polled equal at ~17% that could potentially stop either party getting any / a significant number of seats. Whilst I am not looking forward to this Labour super majority government, I do feel that the extinction of the Conservative party is a long time coming.
Something like a 3:2 ratio between Refuk and Con vote share would probably be the pessimal point in terms of their combined seat total.
So, 21% Refuk, 14% Con might get them just 9 or 10 seats apiece.
That assumes that voting patterns stay the same otherwise, and that would be far from certain in the face of such a big upheaval in public opinion. If Refuk were able to find a couple of dozen "big beasts", they might be able to start concentrating their vote share in target seats, making them more likely to win.
Deadline for nominations is 4pm tomorrow, though - so they've almost certainly left it too late to pick up on any surge this time round.
For all the talk of the Lib Dems being boosted by tactical voting, nobody has talked about Reform being boosted by tactical voting. Could it happen?
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
More shenanigans. Ross announced himself as candidate. But still needs to get formally selected by the association. And from what I can see on Facebook they are NOT happy.
Seems outrageous on David Duguid quite honestly given how the new seat is 75% his old one.
I am looking forward to First Minister’s Questions at 12.00. Kate Forbes is standing in for John Swinney. Will Douglas Ross attend?
The Electoral Commission has updated its donations database for Q1 2024. Zero reportable donations to the SNP. Just the regular “short money” allocation from the House of Commons, which is very likely to collapse after the general election.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
Ed Davey confirming this am they oppose labours vat on private schools ?
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
A chicken run is usually defined as moving to a seat which doesn't contain any of the MP's previous seat. That isn't the case here. For example Richard Holden moving from North West Durham to Basildon & Billericay.
Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
I don't understand this twitter post. How can anyone know what a particular party is going to do wrt nominations? Declared candidates is totally different to whether or not a party has a candidate ready to be nominated.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes
She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
"It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January."
@leon you visited Paris at the wrong time. We cycled around the sights before setting off for Orleans and the prep for the Olympics is impressive. Only beggar we saw was being escorted away by 3 Gendarmes, all the litter has been picked up and the buildings hosed down. Every blade of grass is being cut to an inch of its life. The stands and decorations are going up. See surfer in the picture.
Comments
I’m expecting a Starmer bounce from his win in the debates.
https://www.ft.com/content/20185cd5-c1de-46b0-b3dd-ac51260ae38f
A centrist would not have appointed Cruella.
He is the shit Tory candidate...
It's not even clear it will produce good government (or good opposition). If all your MPs think the same way, groupthink is bad. If they all come from running think tanks, then they are used to running things and will not want to be backbench cannon fodder, and they are also likely to have fixed ideas about their areas of expertise.
You could put a hamster up as FM in Wales with a red rosette and it would win
His myopic vision, from his billionaire funded chopper, is to drive Britain to an uncaring, ruthless, exploitative, functionalist, factory.
It’s not the way forward for this country, nor the world. It’s absolutely clear to everyone that this dystopia will do nothing to solve the fundamental, systemic, and global problems we face. He is living in a mindset which has literally nothing to offer for solving what really now concerns people.
Banff and Buchan was SNP in 1997 and Basildon went Labour
Now I think, at least it draws a line, and Conservatives can go back to being proper Conservatives again. Slowly. So there is no point me posting anything other than the true history of this election, and cut through everybody’s spin.
The Conservative debates and leadership election that come after is the important thing.
Did a young linesman from Morayshire get visited by three witches yesterday?
Hail wee Dougie, leader of the Scons
Hall wee Dougie MP for Aberdeenshire and Moray East
Hail wee Dougie thou shalt be LOTO hereafter......
Does he think given the SNP woes he's gaining seats and can present himself as the face of 'successful Unionism and Conservatism'? Set against carnage in the rest of the UK. Is that what this is all about?
I can't even find odds.......
Arise Sir Alec Dougie Ross
It is becoming increasingly clear that the culture was Board-driven.
We may in due course learn the extent to which it was also Civil Service/Government driven, but that part of the story is yet to come.
https://x.com/staylorish/status/1798614146839347245
Boro is a prime example, it lost Debenhams, then House of Fraser but Marks kept going until the lack of footfall made keeping the store open impossible.
Same is true of Sunderland where they recently closed while moving to Washington..
I have readily believed that Vennells will be charged in due course. But will they really put Mrs J Straw in the dock?
There's still four weeks to go and plenty of time for events but the current situation remains dire for the Conservatives.
It's not a big journey from 150 to 100 or even 50 if MRP numbers are to be believed (I don't). The topline polls continue to show Labour in the low to mid 40s and the Conservatives in the low to mid 20s. The Conservative objective must now be to finish second in terms of seats (votes don't matter) and remain His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. The possibility that may not happen exists if tactical voting plays the part some think it will.
As to what will happen after the election and let's assume for now the Conservatives do finish second with between 100-150 seats (not unreasonable from where we are now). The options will either be to quickly unite behind a new leader (improbable) or have that time-honoured phrase - "a battle for the soul of the party".
Will the Conservatives use their autumn conference as a kind of leadership hustings? Seems reasonable - no one outside the party or forums like this will care very much. Perhaps you should join to have a vote in any membership ballot and try to work out which of the undeserving is nearest your version of "Conservatism" (whatever that is).
The individual who emerges from that sea of electoral hazard will face a party in ruins and the first question won't be how to deal with Labour or even the LDs but how to deal with Reform - again, let's assume Farage is their sole MP. Will someone like a Braverman basically grovel to him to get him back in the fold - propose a merger between the two parties to fight the common "progressive" enemy?
Here's a thought - the Reform leadership may sound like post-Thatcherites but the Reform membership is or are very different and many of them aren't conservative by any measure.
As we know, leaders "evolve" - look at Kinnock and how he shifted in opposition from 1983 to 1992. When parties become serious about wanting power, they are happy to pick the leader most likely to take them there and the funerla pyre of sacred cows slaughtered on that journey will be impressive.
The Conservative Party which wins back power will be unrecognisable from the one which loses it.
Secondly I am calling out your reading across a debate snap poll, to the actual election polling, as absolutely humiliating straw clutching bollocks. When you attempt to do that, are you comparing apples with apples, sheep with sheep? A two horse race compared to multi horse race. Seriously? 🤷♀️
While talking tough bollocks on immigration.
So they pissed off the socially liberal & illiberal.
Meanwhile the Greek coastguard actually sank migrant boats.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1907989/lib-dems-arrested-election-harrogate
I assume Harrogate is a top target so not sure how this might play if at all.
Knock knock knock. Door opens: "fit ya wan'?" oh shit, I don't understand what he just said..
The goal is not to know.
*Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs, probably.
Apart from anything else, that is a superb betting post!
Tories still quite some way off a full slate of candidates?
Reform on 465, strangely DOWN 5… are they waiting for something to happen tomorrow?
Starmer Labour is closer to New Labour than Corbyn Labour. The shift away from the centre really began in Opposition not when power was lost.
Even Kinnock only succeeded Michael Foot not Callaghan
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
There won't be any Sunak loyalists in a month, at best it's about influencing who they might pick as the new leader.
In 2019 it was 230,000.
This year there are an extra 2m eligible.
I would be amazed if the polling companies have this bit right, even if I agree once you are a registered overseas voter you will probably vote for your usual party and vote as long as you are allowed to.
This is very relevant for bets like CON vs REFUK vote share or CON Total Votes…
Indeed he has dual UK - New Zealand citizenship
Lib Dems ‘Most seats without Labour’ - 6.6
I still think these are both stonking value
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
That brought forth an audible chuckle on the beach in corrupt Malta.
Couldn't they hire out the Winnebago?
The latter is much more difficult of course but 6.6 for something that is coming up repeatedly in MRPs does not seem bad at all…
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914
May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes
She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
"It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January."
Flag Quote · 1Like
@leon you visited Paris at the wrong time. We cycled around the sights before setting off for Orleans and the prep for the Olympics is impressive. Only beggar we saw was being escorted away by 3 Gendarmes, all the litter has been picked up and the buildings hosed down. Every blade of grass is being cut to an inch of its life. The stands and decorations are going up. See surfer in the picture.