So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Everyone should change their mind about how Tuesdays debate went, as new information, fact checking, more detail in the supplementary questions on the 3 debate polls has been coming in all the time since it finished, so we need to be re calculating our own thoughts all the time about what really happened. But also, crucially, what it means for what happens next, it’s certainly not over, gone and in the past.
Tuesdays debate isn’t over. Sunak could only get through it by telling brazen lies on every question asked him - Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
No they didn't the Treasury came up with some of the figure other bits came from 3 different sources - 2 of whom also said they didn't agree to their figures being used the way it was used..
The number of candidates Reform front up and there make up may end up crucial to some of the seat total betting. They are currently short 150 or so. If, say, they don't stand in 100 it makes the situation in those quite critical to the seat outcomes/majority size/Tory hold ons. Plus you'd need to take about 2% off their VI and redistribute.......
The "150 short" thing is just an estimate of course, as I said earlier. No-one knows what candidates a party has lined up for close of nominations tomorrow until it happens. The only reason we know candidates atm is because they or their party has decided to publicise it, and some may choose not to do so until nominations close for whatever reason.
Oh totally agree, just seems Reform haven't increased theirs in a fair while as if most of their agreed candidates are in place. I don't see the logic in waiting till the last second to put in nominations but perhaps they will. Edit - plus, has the Tice money dried up?
...Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action...
Or, as somebody once said (ish) "reaction is always with us"
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Refuk are 16/1 on the Most Seats Without Labour market. Does anyone have a view as to how much value that represents?
Tories under 50 seats is much better at 13/2 if you fancy Refuk doing well.
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
We're not all retired you know
I looked at travelling from Llandudno to Elgin by train recently and it was routed Crewe - Waverley - Dundee - Elgin
It seemed quite a good service and is useful for us to know
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be down
MoonRabbit did get July right so all credit there but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
Did you get the month wrong? Or did Sunak?
May 2nd created a momentum swing, wiped out councillors and mayors, confirmed the craziest of polls are correct, depressed his own party, pepped up opponents - yet just 20 days later he called the early election 🤷♀️
Whilst we all saw the balance of best time to campaign being spring rather than autumn and winter, we ruled out dates after May 2nd on basis no one would be crazy enough to create a momentum swing, wipe out councillors and mayors, confirm the craziest of polls are correct, depress his own party, pep up opponents, and then call the early one.
And that’s me being polite and ignoring your “ but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win” where truth is I only gave two dates, May 2nd, July 4th.
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be disn
It's not at all febrile. It's disillusioned and fed up. Turnout will get 2001ish imo
Ukrainian medic & rescuer Roman "Bolhar" Yukhnevych, 35, killed in Russian double-tap missile strike on Odesa while aiding victims. Hailed as “sincere & bright man” by comrades.
The attacks of Odesa are more than daily now. Hard to count. Putin is trying to take the city out altogether, it feels - ie make it uninhabitable for civilians due to lack of power/comms and unusable as a port
Pretty sure I was woken by one attack on the port last night
"Long power cuts today - especially in #Odesa where internet also failed for many.
Finally found some photos of the explosion heard this morning in the city. It was indeed a downed rocket, fragments of which ended up in someone's garden. You see how easily shrapnel can kill."
I'm out today, but on the slightly rabbithole subject of highly appropriate what3words locations, here's another one from Chesterfield. This is a from a system of separated surfaced footpaths and cycle tracks built around Junction 29 on the M1 in ~1968, since then basically forgotten about like everything else.
This piccie is of difficult access to a public footpath in March (it look sbetter in summer, I think), and is at https://what3words.com/scarred.frantic.shudders one assumes for wheelchair users. It is where the new stuff (in 1968) was linked in with Public Rights of Way severed by the motorway; now the LHA or DFT would probably just not bother with such work and it would be uncontrolled crossings across slip roads, or nothing at all. There's another one close by at https://what3words.com/tell.scouting.scooters, appropriate for mobility scooter users and perhaps a better link on a cut-off road I have not yet explored.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
They hate Mr Sunak almost as much as most Con members do
It's more than that though. Commentators have been salivating at the prospect of crossover with Reform for weeks already, they cannot disguise their eagerness as just being a prediction.
They don't just want to punish the party due to Sunak and have it be rebuilt more right wing (ignoring he is pretty right wing anyway) - they want the party eclipsed, not reformulated (pun intended).
...Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action...
Or, as somebody once said (ish) "reaction is always with us"
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
The people running the Tories have always been a lot more predisposed to neo-liberalism than everyone else in the party. But because of the deferential nature of provincial Tories, they've always been allowed to get away with it. The attitude has been "those people in London must know what they're doing and talking about, so we'd better go along with it".
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
Would it not be generally considered a very underhand move for a nominated candidate for party A to defect to party B so near to close of nominations that party A didn't have time to find a replacement candidate?
It's the sort of tactic that I'd expect someone like Putin to use, preventing the electorate from making a free and fair choice. We shouldn't have that sort of shenanigans in a mature democracy.
I'd hope that the voters would severely punish any party playing that sort of game.
I suspect they'd be able to get away with it in the context of a sudden Refuk surge / Faragasm.
Tory complaints would be based on technicalities around process and precedent that the public won't know anything about. Painting Farage as being sneaky/devious would risk him being seen as cunning if public opinion is already shifting in his direction.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
No, I think Reform only have a 50/50 chance of winning a single seat.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be disn
It's not at all febrile. It's disillusioned and fed up. Turnout will get 2001ish imo
Agreed. A record low is possible, it's not that big a drop to get there.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
That’s how it looks to the Daily Mail:
Douglas Ross doing a chicken run to a seat currently held by one of his own MPs, booting him out in the process, is quite the look.
COMMENT: David Duguid’s statement suggests he’s well enough to stand, but Douglas Ross insists he’s too sick. This could badly damage Ross if enough are persuaded he’s acting out of self interest. What Duguid says next, if anything, will be key.
At the PO Inquiry, Alice Perkins just accused Paula Vennells of lying.
Former Post office Chair Alice Perkins is wife of Jack Straw and Labour, former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells was given a CBE by Tory PM Theresa May
Don't think that's relevant - the entire Post Office board is now a sack of cats all trying to pin the blame on anyone who isn't themselves..
It is relevant in the sense that Labour and the Tories, even Davey and the LDs all cannot escape blame for connections to the PO scandal
Everyone is at fault in the PO scandal...
Enough blame to go round a lot of people….
It has puzzled me for a long time how the organisation could be so incompetent and dysfunctional at every level. Perkins' evidence makes it very clear that the Board was at the heart of the problem.
Many organisations exist like this - as long as management aren’t forced to know what they don’t want to know…
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
No, I think Reform only have a 50/50 chance of winning a single seat.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
I very much get where you’re coming from but you can get 5.1 on REFUK winning 0 seats - if you think it’s a 50/50 shot then deffo lump on
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Given that if YouGov hadn't changed its methodology, it would already have had a tie between Con and Refuk, unless it was an outlier we could expect to (3) in the next few days just through sampling variation.
It's only YouGov finding this sort of support though, no other pollsters are anywhere close to crossover or as close as YG have been all along. Redfield are the only other one remotely close. YGs MRP is also totally at odds with their Sky and Times polls. YG could set a narrative that simply doesn't exist
But isn't that YouGov poll the only one released so far whose sampling was mostly done after the Farage announcement?
Yes but they were also the only ones that had Reform that high in the first place. They have them polling 15% pre farage whereas the consensus is about 10........
I don't think there was really much of a consensus. The range of recent non-YouGov ratings is 9-14%.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
"After riding the Boris bounce to his Warrington South seat in 2019, Andy Carter’s panicked chicken run has finally ended up in farcical failure. Carter, one quarter of the Kangaroo Court’s “Tory Majority“, is currently sat on a doomed 3% majority. Good luck fighting that one…
The Boris backstabber tried to chicken run and get the selection for quite a few seats, including Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire as well as Chester South. He now announces his sullen return"
Ukrainian medic & rescuer Roman "Bolhar" Yukhnevych, 35, killed in Russian double-tap missile strike on Odesa while aiding victims. Hailed as “sincere & bright man” by comrades.
The attacks of Odesa are more than daily now. Hard to count. Putin is trying to take the city out altogether, it feels - ie make it uninhabitable for civilians due to lack of power/comms and unusable as a port
Pretty sure I was woken by one attack on the port last night
"Long power cuts today - especially in #Odesa where internet also failed for many.
Finally found some photos of the explosion heard this morning in the city. It was indeed a downed rocket, fragments of which ended up in someone's garden. You see how easily shrapnel can kill."
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
I just went for a short walk and a thought occured to me...... Did a young linesman from Morayshire get visited by three witches yesterday? Hail wee Dougie, leader of the Scons Hall wee Dougie MP for Aberdeenshire and Moray East Hail wee Dougie thou shalt be LOTO hereafter......
Does he think given the SNP woes he's gaining seats and can present himself as the face of 'successful Unionism and Conservatism'? Set against carnage in the rest of the UK. Is that what this is all about?
I can't even find odds.......
Arise Sir Alec Dougie Ross
Out, damned Ross; out!
Something wicked this way comes (to your constituency)
Ross is one of the minor characters in Macbeth. Interestingly, in Polanski's film (where he's played by John Stride) he's depicted as a serial turncoat and the worst villain of them all.
“Although critics of Trump’s Manhattan prosecution have said this was a novel application of the relevant statutes, other commentators have observed that ‘the creation of phony documentation to cover up campaign finance violations has been repeatedly prosecuted in New York.’ If there was anything novel about the situation, it was the crime, not the prosecution.” https://nytimes.com/2024/06/05/opinion/trump-verdict-felon-campaign.html
MoonRabbit did get July right so all credit there but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
Moonrabbit predicting the election date is like some financial pundits predicting recessions. The old saying goes, they've predicted twenty of the last two recessions.
He's having an excellent campaign. Even the speeding points (& which Lib Dem would be complete without those) got him a bit more coverage in the news the other day.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Everyone should change their mind about how Tuesdays debate went, as new information, fact checking, more detail in the supplementary questions on the 3 debate polls has been coming in all the time since it finished, so we need to be re calculating our own thoughts all the time about what really happened. But also, crucially, what it means for what happens next, it’s certainly not over, gone and in the past.
Tuesdays debate isn’t over. Sunak could only get through it by telling brazen lies on every question asked him - Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
No they didn't the Treasury came up with some of the figure other bits came from 3 different sources - 2 of whom also said they didn't agree to their figures being used the way it was used..
I didn't get much of a chance to look at the news yesterday, but is it true that the Tories have been trying to blame Starmer for entrapment, because he didn't immediately counter Rishi's lies?
...Conservatism exists not to stop progress, nor keep everything the same, but in acknowledgement natures way is everything forever changes, and we need to conserve what is of value and importance. You build a wall to keep the wild things out. Within the wall you build a path to get you from A to B safely in the dark or inclement weather. Where your way leads across the stream, you build a bridge. If you now do nothing to conserve the path and the wall and the bridge, nature will take them from you. It will change your world and take everything you value from you. Those things you want your children to learn in the right way, whilst on your knee? they will learn it first elsewhere, in the wrong way. The world always needs Conservative thinking and action...
Or, as somebody once said (ish) "reaction is always with us"
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
“So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values”
And your point is absolutely spot on too.
We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.
By all means hate it and enjoy voting it out. But don’t confuse what’s about to be thrashed as Conservatism at its best.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
How do we know David Duguid isn't standing down for health reasons?
He said he wanted to fight the seat . The Tories basically said they replaced him for his own good .
That may well be largely true, however if they had concerns over his fitness to campaign they should have made that determination as soon as the election was called not 48 hours before close of nominations. They also shouldn’t be shoehorning the party leader in as candidate because it stinks, it stinks so much you could smell it from the Scilly Isles.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
People like that rarely are, though. Chris Huhne being the exception due to the media circus probably. It is usually only the little people who are held to account.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
My view now is that we are increasingly looking at Reform being the Loyal Opposition on 5th July.
As you say - all highly febrile.
No, I think Reform only have a 50/50 chance of winning a single seat.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
I very much get where you’re coming from but you can get 5.1 on REFUK winning 0 seats - if you think it’s a 50/50 shot then deffo lump on
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is the clear successor seat to Moray. ANME is the clear successor seat to Duguid's old Banff & Buchan. It's objectively more a move than it is staying put. From Forres (western part of Moray) to Peterhead (eastern part of ANME) it's more than a 2 hour drive.
A chicken run is usually defined as moving to a seat which doesn't contain any of the MP's previous seat. That isn't the case here. For example Richard Holden moving from North West Durham to Basildon & Billericay.
OK it's not a 100% chicken run, but using a combination of your position in the party to push out the existing candidate because they are ill doesn't make a good look..
I don’t recall an election when so many seats, some of them winnable, still had local associations of potentially winning parties, looking for candidates at this stage. Does underline the fact that Sunak made the decision to cut and run alone. What does he know?
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Ross is *already* both an MSP and Scottish Tory leader. He had announced he was quitting Westminster to focus on Holyrood. And refereeing. But obviously has changed his mind...
The way the two main parties have treated candidate selection in this election is just awful. Completely treating local parties and local democracy as an inconvenience. Local members must do what they are instructed to.
Although a lot of everyone might think Tuesdays debate is behind us, I actually now suspect it shapes what we can guess is in front of us.
Sunak couldn’t get through the debate without bare faced lies to EVERY question he faced. Waiting lists down (the audience gasped and laughed) boat crossings down (try saying that with Farage on the stage) Rwanda is a deterrent, Pensioners have never paid tax on pensions (he did say that, the very man who invented a pension tax and has been taxing pensions). The 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber, the treasury really did do it.
It’s just sinking in with me now how bad Sunak’s performance was in that debate, because as the leader, he has set a clear lead what the answers are. Everyone one else in his party, in debates, interviews, panels, QT in front of audiences, all must repeat Sunak’s lies now.
Starting with Mordaunt on Friday, no matter how batshit she thinks these answers are, she must say boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do it. Etc etc.
It’s not going to be easy for them, is it?
So you have moved on from: "It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that"
I'm still waiting for the VAT bounce
Ed VAT bounce is not even a dead cat bounce, it seems
What is the 'VAT Bounce' when it is at home?
I believe MoonRabbit predicted a significant recovery in Con polling when they went big on the Lab private school VAT policy and the masses were horrified by this assault on aspiration.
That, IIRC, was her prediction. But if you don't like that prediction, she has others.
By chance when looking for something else I found this: So though she obviously changed her mind there was a time when she predicted July4th. So well done Moon. You really are the messiah!!
MoonRabbit Posts: 12,914 May 16
Anabobazina said:
» show previous quotes She is now (or was) certain it will be in July and cannot possibly be any other month. I dare say her serial certainty will continue all bloody year.
It won’t be July 4th now, it’s already too late to call it with close down next week.
I think Sunak likes being Prime Minister, and it eats him up he’s getting chucked out. Even if experts point to the optimum day in 2024 he will lose less seats and help the party by choosing that, I still think he’ll hang on till the end based on self interest. I wouldn’t even rule out January. Flag Quote · 1Like
To be fair to MR, she is open to changing her mind (see today's posts on the debate compared to those during the debate). I find her an entertaining poster.
Agreed. And she is always honest about the fact that she has changed her mind. So I say fair play to her.
I do wonder though…is the atmosphere really febrile?
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be down
Nor to me. But I can imagine that things might feel rather different to fearful Cons and the right wing of the media...
MoonRabbit did get July right so all credit there but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win.
On the other hand, to blow my own trumpet I was always confident it would be May to the middle of the summer but I went off and I should have stuck to my guns. I believe my logic for calling the election was sound, I just got the month wrong.
Moonrabbit predicting the election date is like some financial pundits predicting recessions. The old saying goes, they've predicted twenty of the last two recessions.
Applies here too.
Boo. 😝
I only gave you 2 dates, May 2nd and July 4th.
Explain how you know I got the May 2nd one wrong, and not Rishi Sunak.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Reform actually matched Conservative yesterday on YouGov's old methodology. The switch in methodology saved the Tories from the 'crossover' narrative.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
They would be within 5% of winning the following constituencies: Great Yarmouth (Lab) South Basildon & East Thurrock (Lab) Rayleigh & Wickford (Lab) Basildon & Billericay (Lab) Havant (Lab) Castle Point (Con) South Holland & The Deepings (Con) Louth & Horncastle (Con) North East Cambridgeshire (Con) South West Norfolk (Con) Bridlington & The Wold (tossup) Gosport (tossup)
I would add that Wikipedia has a good list of constituencies by Brexit vote:
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
How do we know David Duguid isn't standing down for health reasons?
He said he wanted to fight the seat . The Tories basically said they replaced him for his own good .
Absolutely not my political cup of tea, but David Duguid has a pretty substantial local, personal vote. Ross could certainly lose, and just for the Lols it would be fun to see.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Reform actually matched Conservative yesterday on YouGov's old methodology. The switch in methodology saved the Tories from the 'crossover' narrative.
Instead the crossover narrative might come after Friday’s debate.
Mordaunt is probably a decent opponent however, she might do alright vs Farage?
The football being on at the same time won’t help viewership, mind - but the viral clips that come after the debate might be more revealing.
Genuinely - clips from Friday’s debate going viral will be the first time millions of people will even know Farage is standing.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
We're not all retired you know
I looked at travelling from Llandudno to Elgin by train recently and it was routed Crewe - Waverley - Dundee - Elgin
It seemed quite a good service and is useful for us to know
In any case, if it's a works outing you could book a coach from a convenient point for most PBers to get to - Carlisle then Edinburgh Haymarket and one of the Edinburgh Park and Rides (or more probably somewhere like the Ratho Inn, knowing PB).
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm much more astounded at DavidL's notion that the Tories in Scotland didn't get either the leader of the government or the leader of the largest opposition party since the 1950s.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Yes, and I think a main difference is that Sunak is far less popular now than John Major was in 97 where he was constantly polling far higher than his party.
The Tories must be in damage limitation mode now. They must know it is game over.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Yes, and I think a main difference is that Sunak is far less popular now than John Major was in 97 where he was constantly polling far higher than his party.
The Tories must be in damage limitation mode now. They must know it is game over.
^^^ - I think that's the important bit here - both Blair (and Major) were liked, no-one likes Rishi and that's going to ensure a lot of former Tory voters sit in the sun on July 4th...
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Oh, I agree it looks that way.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm sure you have, a hashtag doesn't mean it's remotely possible and may only be being posted for the Lols.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
That's a bit different to what you put in Benpointers Excellent Competition, Pubman!
Don't think they are banned in RoI. Though our ban is hardly effective - a pug got savaged down the road from me a few days ago. Think the dog is still extant.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Yes, and I think a main difference is that Sunak is far less popular now than John Major was in 97 where he was constantly polling far higher than his party.
The Tories must be in damage limitation mode now. They must know it is game over.
^^^ - I think that's the important bit here - both Blair (and Major) were liked, no-one likes Rishi and that's going to ensure a lot of former Tory voters sit in the sun on July 4th...
He didn't really do anything to make himself appear more likeable during the live debate either.
Does underline the fact that Sunak made the decision to cut and run alone. What does he know?
July was the worst possible date for him to call the election.
Apart from ALL the others...
The main point I was trying to make all year, was that election date is never down to the whim of a leader but decided by analytical electoral science. The science can crunch all the planned data release dates and and what they likely say, all the forecast modelling - boat crossings, energy cost drops/rises on inflation and household and business bills - it can find you a sweet spot, 5 weeks to campaign in when promising news comes in, hope is in the air. And that sweet spot, divined by science, can be honed further by planned announcements, rabbit from hat budgets, etc etc to be sweeter still. So it’s never a surprise, it can only be the worst kept secret. And we on PB could follow the science going on, and clean up by getting to markets first.
I was merely trying to prove a hypothesis, that really helps political betting, that in no way, with a partys fortunes and reputation to consider, and politics is about ideas at the end of the day and that’s the reason you joined your party, will this decision be in the gift of one leader or clique around them, to call it whimsically, bouncing everybody with hardly planned last minute toss up decision. No. Of course not. It will be decided by science, and data, and analysis, and months of trailing policies and massaging that date to work for you.
But reflecting about how how it unfolded, how we got here, I fear my theory has been proved spectaculary wrong. A leader and his clique really did decide with about two days to go, bouncing his own hugely expensive campaign manager and catching his own party more on the hop after his “working assumption is autumn” than the opponents.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm sure you have, a hashtag doesn't mean it's remotely possible and may only be being posted for the Lols.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
How do we know David Duguid isn't standing down for health reasons?
He said he wanted to fight the seat . The Tories basically said they replaced him for his own good .
Absolutely not my political cup of tea, but David Duguid has a pretty substantial local, personal vote. Ross could certainly lose, and just for the Lols it would be fun to see.
I disliked Duguid's politics and have been pretty open about it. But as a person? Everyone agrees he is a lovely guy. And this isn't about partisan politics, this is how do we want politics to be done.
If the party does not feel Duguid is fit to stand then why did they let him stand? He was an approved candidate available for selection and was duly selected. Removing him with 2 days to go - literally firing him on his sickbed - is not on.
Love how Ross hides behind the party management board. The board he is a member of...
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
There is now a real danger for the Tories that the chicken runners become the story
Not really. A bunch of MPs most members of the public have never heard of is so niche it's something only politics nerds would care about. And politics nerds have enough stories.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Oh, I agree it looks that way.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
Who did the appointing?
Does anyone else wonder if AP was deliberately scheduled to give evidence to the enquiry during the DDay commemorations?
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Ross is *already* both an MSP and Scottish Tory leader. He had announced he was quitting Westminster to focus on Holyrood. And refereeing. But obviously has changed his mind...
The way the two main parties have treated candidate selection in this election is just awful. Completely treating local parties and local democracy as an inconvenience. Local members must do what they are instructed to.
Between Boris, Truss and Corbyn, party members have forfeited their right to be consulted. They're worse than an inconvenience, they're a liability.
Comments
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
Edit - plus, has the Tice money dried up?
Though I suppose you got to be fairly nuts to aspire to being his VP.
Trump has requested financial and other documents from 8 potential VP picks as he formalizes his vetting. The contenders, in no particular order:
—J.D. Vance
—Doug Burgum
—Marco Rubio
—Tim Scott
—Ben Carson
—Elise Stefanik
—Byron Donalds
—Tom Cotton
https://x.com/axios/status/1798666297401561190
Curiously, the canicide doesn't appear.
Whilst I agree with you about the abstract strand of political thought called "Conservatism", I disagree that this is the case for the concrete manifestation called "The Conservative And Unionist Party". The current party is (crudely and exaggeratedly) a bunch of rich people devoted to strip-mining the country and its inhabitants for their resources and labour in order to repay the debt incurred, a process known as "platform decay" or "enshittification".
So your point is correct, but the current party does not reflect those values and doesn't want to. Any party that imports 1-2% of its population per year to reduce labour costs and increase growth is profit-driven, not values-driven. The future home of your Conservatism may not be the CUP, and if it is it will be a radically different one.
It seemed quite a good service and is useful for us to know
It doesn’t feel remotely febrile to me. The poison of Brexit that upped the temperature of the last 2 elections is gone. There’s a sense of settled opinion I think. I expect turnout will be down
May 2nd created a momentum swing, wiped out councillors and mayors, confirmed the craziest of polls are correct, depressed his own party, pepped up opponents - yet just 20 days later he called the early election 🤷♀️
Whilst we all saw the balance of best time to campaign being spring rather than autumn and winter, we ruled out dates after May 2nd on basis no one would be crazy enough to create a momentum swing, wipe out councillors and mayors, confirm the craziest of polls are correct, depress his own party, pep up opponents, and then call the early one.
And that’s me being polite and ignoring your “ but she basically predicted every month so I'm not sure it's a massive win” where truth is I only gave two dates, May 2nd, July 4th.
Tory election candidate Sam Trask has resigned after his "wholly inappropriate" sexual comments about women were exposed
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1798674984220725402
Pretty sure I was woken by one attack on the port last night
"Long power cuts today - especially in #Odesa where internet also failed for many.
Finally found some photos of the explosion heard this morning in the city. It was indeed a downed rocket, fragments of which ended up in someone's garden. You see how easily shrapnel can kill."
https://x.com/TWMCLtd/status/1798033375506362655
I'm out today, but on the slightly rabbithole subject of highly appropriate what3words locations, here's another one from Chesterfield. This is a from a system of separated surfaced footpaths and cycle tracks built around Junction 29 on the M1 in ~1968, since then basically forgotten about like everything else.
This piccie is of difficult access to a public footpath in March (it look sbetter in summer, I think), and is at https://what3words.com/scarred.frantic.shudders one assumes for wheelchair users. It is where the new stuff (in 1968) was linked in with Public Rights of Way severed by the motorway; now the LHA or DFT would probably just not bother with such work and it would be uncontrolled crossings across slip roads, or nothing at all.
There's another one close by at https://what3words.com/tell.scouting.scooters, appropriate for mobility scooter users and perhaps a better link on a cut-off road I have not yet explored.
They don't just want to punish the party due to Sunak and have it be rebuilt more right wing (ignoring he is pretty right wing anyway) - they want the party eclipsed, not reformulated (pun intended).
Tory complaints would be based on technicalities around process and precedent that the public won't know anything about. Painting Farage as being sneaky/devious would risk him being seen as cunning if public opinion is already shifting in his direction.
Remember Farage is a serial failure at FPTP, and while has a fervent following, he has a low ceiling of support, even amongst Tories, and is loathed by LLG. Even at the height of UKIP fever they only won a single seat once at FPTP, and only got above 20% in a handful of others.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
https://x.com/HolyroodDaily/status/1798676451060851034
4 million views.
https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1798414489190334975
The Boris backstabber tried to chicken run and get the selection for quite a few seats, including Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire as well as Chester South. He now announces his sullen return"
https://order-order.com/2024/06/06/boris-backstabber-slinks-back-to-doomed-seat-after-failed-chicken-run/
Russia has now targeted several Ukrainian equivalents of B&Q.
https://nytimes.com/2024/06/05/opinion/trump-verdict-felon-campaign.html
Applies here too.
And your point is absolutely spot on too.
We have a Conservative Party in the UK that used to be very good at this, and often rewarded with power, but it has lost its way. Distracted by other things, it’s stopped focussing on its main reason to be - to conserve what is of value and important. The party has become an echo chamber for right wing capitalist think tanks and NeoCon groups, its leaders forgetting when they get excited by idea’s, they will ultimately have to defend them on the floor of parliament and at the ballot box.
By all means hate it and enjoy voting it out. But don’t confuse what’s about to be thrashed as Conservatism at its best.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry.
Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest.
Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon.
Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle.
Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1797967463038255270
Douglas Ross denied the Conservatives had 'sacked a man on his sickbed' after he replaced David Duguid as a General Election candidate.
Live updates: https://i.stv.tv/4e2Jsl8
https://x.com/STVNews/status/1798678730610508244
If I were in Clacton I would vote Tory!
Does underline the fact that Sunak made the decision to cut and run alone. What does he know?
Rory is asking some very sensible questions.
I only gave you 2 dates, May 2nd and July 4th.
Explain how you know I got the May 2nd one wrong, and not Rishi Sunak.
Apart from ALL the others...
Applying YouGov's latest poll to their MRP would give Reform three seats:
Boston & Skegness: 2% majority
Clacton: 1% majority
Ashfield: 0.3% majority
They would be within 5% of winning the following constituencies:
Great Yarmouth (Lab)
South Basildon & East Thurrock (Lab)
Rayleigh & Wickford (Lab)
Basildon & Billericay (Lab)
Havant (Lab)
Castle Point (Con)
South Holland & The Deepings (Con)
Louth & Horncastle (Con)
North East Cambridgeshire (Con)
South West Norfolk (Con)
Bridlington & The Wold (tossup)
Gosport (tossup)
I would add that Wikipedia has a good list of constituencies by Brexit vote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum_by_constituency
The key Reform targets ought to be Brexit vote 60%+ and Con held and Lab<30% in 2019
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Mordaunt is probably a decent opponent however, she might do alright vs Farage?
The football being on at the same time won’t help viewership, mind - but the viral clips that come after the debate might be more revealing.
Genuinely - clips from Friday’s debate going viral will be the first time millions of people will even know Farage is standing.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
"Dr Michael Mosley: TV doctor goes missing on Greek island Symi - reports"
https://news.sky.com/story/dr-michael-mosley-missing-on-greek-island-reports-13148791
Largest lead for Keir Starmer on this question since 18 February (when his margin was 15%).
Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, who do British voters believe can build a strong economy? (31 May - 2 June)
Keir Starmer 43% (+2)
Rishi Sunak 29% (-2)
Changes +/- 25 - 27 May
https://news.sky.com/story/woman-mauled-to-death-posted-video-dancing-of-her-with-xl-bully-to-song-saying-i-dont-give-a-f-about-the-breed-being-banned-13148665
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24370354.scottish-labour-councillor-quits-party-autocratic-mp-selections/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=060624
The Tories must be in damage limitation mode now. They must know it is game over.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
Who did the appointing?
Lord knows what he would have done with me this week whilst I was in hospital.
Op went well, should be released tomorrow.
I was merely trying to prove a hypothesis, that really helps political betting, that in no way, with a partys fortunes and reputation to consider, and politics is about ideas at the end of the day and that’s the reason you joined your party, will this decision be in the gift of one leader or clique around them, to call it whimsically, bouncing everybody with hardly planned last minute toss up decision. No. Of course not. It will be decided by science, and data, and analysis, and months of trailing policies and massaging that date to work for you.
But reflecting about how how it unfolded, how we got here, I fear my theory has been proved spectaculary wrong. A leader and his clique really did decide with about two days to go, bouncing his own hugely expensive campaign manager and catching his own party more on the hop after his “working assumption is autumn” than the opponents.
Tell me I’m wrong. I love it when you do 😇
https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-ruth-davidson-s-conservatives-the-scottish-tory-party-2011-19.html
If the party does not feel Duguid is fit to stand then why did they let him stand? He was an approved candidate available for selection and was duly selected. Removing him with 2 days to go - literally firing him on his sickbed - is not on.
Love how Ross hides behind the party management board. The board he is a member of...
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
“Precedented Times”.
We shall never see their like again….