💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Yes. I think there's a big overlap between people who will vote Reform (esp now with Farage) and people who would vote Tory again only if Boris Johnson were still leader.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
They've released the 'fed up and just wanted you all to leave us alone' genie
Well there is definitely that. I also think the Tory pitch is always you might not like us, but we are a serious party, serious policies, willing to take tough decisions. Manage the economy first, be pro business, try to keep your taxes down etc.
Now their record is obviously bad, so its a difficult starting point. But they aren't even going with the been tough, but turning it around, here is a serious vision going forward.
The pitch so far as been nonsense stuff about national service etc. People know its not realistic and not tackling any of the big issues. Bugger all to do with cost of living, crime, immigration. Well you might as well vote for Reform (if you right wing Tory) as that lot have been rubbish and coming out with unserious policies.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
you can still get good odds on Reform taking Ashfield - Very good value imo. For those who dont know the area the seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea .This is the reddest of red wall seats , ripe for Reform
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Foxy is in a Tory seat and wants the Tories out. Yet by voting for a minor party, he increases his chances of getting a Tory MP. Simple mathematics. Not comparable in any way with your seat which is certain Labour.
In FPTP most people vote for the least worst party with a chance of winning.
Which means the biggest battle the Lib Dems/SNP have/had is convincing people that they have a real chance of winning.
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Yes. I think there's a big overlap between people who will vote Reform (esp now with Farage) and people who would vote Tory again only if Boris Johnson were still leader.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Haven’t the Libs been in favour of PR for more than a century. Hard to ditch something as ingrained as that.
Ed Davey speeding into LotO at 73mph unless he falls into one of those inland waterways.
Who would have thought a humble paddleboard could help an election campaign so much. He's transformed his public image from "Who?" to enjoyable chappie.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Some evidence for my theory that Reform can take votes off Labour. Their ceiling is higher than you think.
Yes, there is evidence for that. You could even argue that because the lastest change is a bigger decrease of the Labour vote than of the Tory vote, that change is to the Tories' benefit.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
That may well be true. But it seems that many reform voters see all the other parties as 'globalist puppets of the WEF' So apparently they are all the same. As a 'scare tactic' I just don't think it works.
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
I'm having great difficulty working out where Labour lost 4% of their vote to. the 2% gain to the Lib Dems is obvious (and equally reflected in the YouGov poll yesterday) but the rest seems to be margin of error changes...
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Some evidence for my theory that Reform can take votes off Labour. Their ceiling is higher than you think.
Yes, there is evidence for that. You could even argue that because the lastest change is a bigger decrease of the Labour vote than of the Tory vote, that change is to the Tories' benefit.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
That is true, but only up to a point. There does come a point where the reverse starts to apply and Refuk begins to hurt Labour more, but we are some way from that yet.
It brings however unalloyed joy and happines to Sir Ed and buyers of LD seats.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Some evidence for my theory that Reform can take votes off Labour. Their ceiling is higher than you think.
Yes, there is evidence for that. You could even argue that because the lastest change is a bigger decrease of the Labour vote than of the Tory vote, that change is to the Tories' benefit.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
Ed Davey speeding into LotO at 73mph unless he falls into one of those inland waterways.
Who would have thought a humble paddleboard could help an election campaign so much. He's transformed his public image from "Who?" to enjoyable chappie.
Hugh Bonneville minus the super-injunction. The nation's Fun Dad.
You can write a lot about this election, but it really does all come back to the public's assessment of the government being a succinct 'we hate you and nothing works'.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
So not Cameron legging it after he failed to win a referendum he called ?
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Haven’t the Libs been in favour of PR for more than a century. Hard to ditch something as ingrained as that.
Anyone notice the massive lack of Tory branding of any sort on Suella’s campaign video?
Talking your book a bit - the leaflets have them. I think people just embarassed to be Tory at this point.
(although you've successfully spooked me into scratching 95% of that 0 defections... )
Haha yes I am getting carried away but certainly everything is lining up for something big…if you are Suella this is surely the moment
Braverman's in with a decent shout of being next Tory leader. Why would she defect to a party that's still set up to be nothing more than a Farage vanity vehicle, and where she'd have no influence or clout?
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Agree, though on seats I would not rule out a few quislings on the dark blue team joining the light blue to stand and maybe win - Jenkyns for example.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
Ed Davey speeding into LotO at 73mph unless he falls into one of those inland waterways.
Who would have thought a humble paddleboard could help an election campaign so much. He's transformed his public image from "Who?" to enjoyable chappie.
That was very much the plan. To look both more normal and more fun than Starmer or Sunak.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
BoJo's behaviour regarding Chris Pincher started the slide downhill. Note that there haven't been any Tory poll leads since December 2021. Yep, 2021!!
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Haven’t the Libs been in favour of PR for more than a century. Hard to ditch something as ingrained as that.
Yep, and even if you do take the cynical viewpoint I think it would be rather foolish to assume such an outcome would be likely to persist beyond a single election.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
Well, I don't know about blame but those who elected BoZo were definitely bozos.
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
Wildly offtopic, but someone pointed me at this the other day.
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
Actually 70mm was used a lot at the time for features Ben Hur south Pacific Lawrence of Arabia Exodus etc. The size of the camera didn't really matter because all the Grand Prix footage is shot from a fixed camera and the only camera movement was an occasional pan. Interesting though to see Monaco without the skyscrapers.
Indeed, I was actually interested in what you might think of it technically.
They were using the equipment that might make a big-budget movie of the day, to film a sporting event, which was rather unusual at the time. My personal favourite shot was the car-mounted camera, which went out in a practice session to be overtaken by all the F1 cars.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
It would be worse
Worse than Nigel Farage beating them in a general election?
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
BoJo's behaviour regarding Chris Pincher started the slide downhill. Note that there haven't been any Tory poll leads since December 2021. Yep, 2021!!
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
What, if they get 9.6% of the seats on 12% of the vote, they'll suddenly be in favour of FPTP?
Anyone notice the massive lack of Tory branding of any sort on Suella’s campaign video?
Talking your book a bit - the leaflets have them. I think people just embarassed to be Tory at this point.
(although you've successfully spooked me into scratching 95% of that 0 defections... )
Haha yes I am getting carried away but certainly everything is lining up for something big…if you are Suella this is surely the moment
Braverman's in with a decent shout of being next Tory leader. Why would she defect to a party that's still set up to be nothing more than a Farage vanity vehicle, and where she'd have no influence or clout?
Probably right, but maybe for those slightly lower down in the pecking order who still have leadership ambitions post a potential Tory Reform merger…
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
What, if they get 9.6% of the seats on 12% of the vote, they'll suddenly be in favour of FPTP?
Nah, PR is in the LD DNA.
“We should have a modern government like the Netherlands.”
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
As Professor Sir John Curtice said a few days ago. Only to be rubbished by @HYUFD
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
So not Cameron legging it after he failed to win a referendum he called ?
Yet we’re, generally speaking, abusing Vaughan Gething for NOT doing something very similar.
Anyone notice the massive lack of Tory branding of any sort on Suella’s campaign video?
Talking your book a bit - the leaflets have them. I think people just embarassed to be Tory at this point.
(although you've successfully spooked me into scratching 95% of that 0 defections... )
Haha yes I am getting carried away but certainly everything is lining up for something big…if you are Suella this is surely the moment
Braverman's in with a decent shout of being next Tory leader. Why would she defect to a party that's still set up to be nothing more than a Farage vanity vehicle, and where she'd have no influence or clout?
She had one of the safest seats too.
I wouldn’t be hugely surprised at a defector or two, but they’re likely to be sideshow nutbags/egotists like Cates or Jenkyns.
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Yes. I think there's a big overlap between people who will vote Reform (esp now with Farage) and people who would vote Tory again only if Boris Johnson were still leader.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
There's little doubt he'd be doing less badly in the polls, but he lost the dressing room, didn't he. Lied so relentlessly that there weren't enough MPs willing to work for him. Couldn't form a government. So, you know, what can you do.
They picked him to win an election despite knowing he was unfit for any high office let alone PM, then they ditched him when he proved unfit for any high office let alone PM. Stupid and self-indulgent. In fact you'd have thought they couldn't get more stupid and self-indulgent, but you'd be wrong because they replaced him with Liz Truss.
If it is a punishment beating on 4th July it's well merited and pretty much the whole party is to blame.
I don't normally bet on the US election, but I've laid Biden for the Dem nomination. I think it's at the point where it is now cruel to make him keep going.
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Yes. I think there's a big overlap between people who will vote Reform (esp now with Farage) and people who would vote Tory again only if Boris Johnson were still leader.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
There's little doubt he'd be doing less badly in the polls, but he lost the dressing room, didn't he. Lied so relentlessly that there weren't enough MPs willing to work for him. Couldn't form a government. So, you know, what can you do.
They picked him to win an election despite knowing he was unfit for any high office let alone PM, then they ditched him when he proved unfit for any high office let alone PM. Stupid and self-indulgent. In fact you'd have thought they couldn't get more stupid and self-indulgent, but you'd be wrong because then they chose Liz Truss.
If it is a punishment beating on 4th July it's well merited and pretty much the whole party is to blame.
Yep, and until they own it, they aren’t going to recover.
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Cakeists who respond to cakeist messaging. If they think they're in the shit with high taxes, let's see how they like living in a low tax economy. The net benefit won't be felt by people like them.
David Duguid is set to lose out on a nearly £15,000 redundancy payment because of a Tory selection row.
The former Banff and Buchan MP - who is currently in hospital - will not be eligible to receive a loss of office payment after he was chucked by the Conservatives as a candidate....
...Duguid would have received £14,700 for his seven years as an MP but will now not do so because the Tories binned him as a candidate.
If Ross loses the constituency he will receive the loss of office payment. He was previously not set to do so as he had chosen not to stand.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
BoJo's behaviour regarding Chris Pincher started the slide downhill. Note that there haven't been any Tory poll leads since December 2021. Yep, 2021!!
There may never be one again
Like Labour, they will always come back, with or without a Reform merger (formal or not).
Labour got written off in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tories got written off in 1997, 2001 (lots of “strange death of Tory England” articles), and 2005.
It takes a special event to kill a major party. The rid of unions saw Labour overtake the Liberals, but even then in reality they just displaced and replaced them. A vehicle will rise on the right/centre right. It always does.
David Duguid is set to lose out on a nearly £15,000 redundancy payment because of a Tory selection row.
The former Banff and Buchan MP - who is currently in hospital - will not be eligible to receive a loss of office payment after he was chucked by the Conservatives as a candidate....
...Duguid would have received £14,700 for his seven years as an MP but will now not do so because the Tories binned him as a candidate.
If Ross loses the constituency he will receive the loss of office payment. He was previously not set to do so as he had chosen not to stand.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
Few on this website seem to grasp this. Even post Covid Boris, had they kept him, would be on track to at least force a hung Parliament.
I don't normally bet on the US election, but I've laid Biden for the Dem nomination. I think it's at the point where it is now cruel to make him keep going.
He looked out of it at the War Christmas shit in Normandie. Hunter's trial(s) bollocks appears to be peaking at the most inconvenient time possible too.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
Few on this website seem to grasp this. Even post Covid Boris, had they kept him, would be on track to at least force a hung Parliament.
Very doubtful given he would not have survived the enforced by election due to him being a law breaking lying scumbag.
Comments
Now their record is obviously bad, so its a difficult starting point. But they aren't even going with the been tough, but turning it around, here is a serious vision going forward.
The pitch so far as been nonsense stuff about national service etc. People know its not realistic and not tackling any of the big issues. Bugger all to do with cost of living, crime, immigration. Well you might as well vote for Reform (if you right wing Tory) as that lot have been rubbish and coming out with unserious policies.
Which means the biggest battle the Lib Dems/SNP have/had is convincing people that they have a real chance of winning.
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
EXC: Hospitalised David Duguid to miss out on £15k redundancy payment after Douglas Ross selection row.
But Ross will get the redundo if he loses on July 4th.
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1798746990941184288
I noticed Peter Firth, lead from the Double Deckers, is also in it.
It brings however unalloyed joy and happines to Sir Ed and buyers of LD seats.
But Ross will get the redundo if he loses on July 4th.
dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/…
Ross’s behaviour gets less edifying the more you look at it…
You can write a lot about this election, but it really does all come back to the public's assessment of the government being a succinct 'we hate you and nothing works'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilford_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
They were using the equipment that might make a big-budget movie of the day, to film a sporting event, which was rather unusual at the time. My personal favourite shot was the car-mounted camera, which went out in a practice session to be overtaken by all the F1 cars.
I wouldn’t be hugely surprised at a defector or two, but they’re likely to be sideshow nutbags/egotists like Cates or Jenkyns.
They picked him to win an election despite knowing he was unfit for any high office let alone PM, then they ditched him when he proved unfit for any high office let alone PM. Stupid and self-indulgent. In fact you'd have thought they couldn't get more stupid and self-indulgent, but you'd be wrong because they replaced him with Liz Truss.
If it is a punishment beating on 4th July it's well merited and pretty much the whole party is to blame.
NEW: First Westminster voting intention since Farage announced his candidacy.
LAB 43 (-4)
CON 23 (-1)
LD 9 (-2)
GRN 5 (+2)
RFM 15 (+7)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 3 (-1)
F/w 5th - 6th June. Changes vs. 27th May 2024. 1,056 adults in Great Britain.
We can say there’d be a massive Labour majority, but the rest will have to unfold on the night.
New Thread
The former Banff and Buchan MP - who is currently in hospital - will not be eligible to receive a loss of office payment after he was chucked by the Conservatives as a candidate....
...Duguid would have received £14,700 for his seven years as an MP but will now not do so because the Tories binned him as a candidate.
If Ross loses the constituency he will receive the loss of office payment. He was previously not set to do so as he had chosen not to stand.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-duguid-miss-out-15k-32976900
What a first class see you next Tuesday....
Labour got written off in 1983, 1987, 1992, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The Tories got written off in 1997, 2001 (lots of “strange death of Tory England” articles), and 2005.
It takes a special event to kill a major party. The rid of unions saw Labour overtake the Liberals, but even then in reality they just displaced and replaced them. A vehicle will rise on the right/centre right. It always does.