I didn't realise John Sweeney was standing for the Lib Dems. If I was the Lib Dems I am not sure I would want him. He is pretty volatile individual.
Running strongly on an anti-Scientology policy too, he should get rid of that hat he's wearing in his campaign photos, makes him look like the strange bloke on the bus.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Lots of speculation about it, but if what was reported in (I think) The Athletic is true, Holland really is a waste of space.
Hmm, I don't think that is true. He had an exceptional background at Crewe bringing through incredible young talent. Then he went to Chelsea and despite them having about 27 different managers, he was actually promoted during that time from reserve to first team coach to assistant manager. My understanding is that he is really the on that devises the tactics.
What I don't think he is so good at is man management. He had a go at being Crewe manager and he awful.
By asking the players what they do at their clubs...
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
No need to keep an open mind on this one. Scotland hates Reform. Wouldn't be surprised if even Alba beat them.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
But Moray etc is a very Brexity area for Scotland, though.
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
Only seen LibDem posters in North Dorset - I assume the Conservative voters are too embarrassed to advertise the fact. Nothing from Labour either, which lends weight to the idea that the LDs are the main challenger here.
As I said below....Conservatives put their posters out later than other parties, because they invariably get torn down by the other parties.
Or maybe its politically enraged badgers. Taking revenge for the cull. Maybe that's it.
Although I did see a single Tory poster board in Torbay this morning. Maybe badgers don't like the sea?
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
I am fair set to stain myself when we get tory/Fukker cross-over.
Everything Big Rish does seems to make it fucking worse.
Peter Mandelson (yes, I know) actually suggested last week things were so bad the Tories should consider binning Big Rish before the vote
Yes, I took that as pure shit-stirring from Mando. Although he sounds very convincing he must know that such a move would be utterly farcical.
(P.S. he is great on that How to Win an Election podcast. The Fink is decent too. But the weird obsession Chorley has with his own theme tune is nauseating)
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
Why not. Demographic change and a tiredness of the Tories.
Blyth Tory in 2019, Hexham Labour in 2024. It's a funny old world.
Yes. It's a world ripe for either a charismatic demagogue or a once in a lifetime statesman to be PM. At this moment there is zero chance of the first (for which relief much thanks), and a 10%+ chance that SKS is the man we need by way of first class statesman.
I didn't realise John Sweeney was standing for the Lib Dems. If I was the Lib Dems I am not sure I would want him. He is pretty volatile individual.
Running strongly on an anti-Scientology policy too, he should get rid of that hat he's wearing in his campaign photos, makes him look like the strange bloke on the bus.
Well I think he is a bit like the strange bloke on the bus.
I didn't realise John Sweeney was standing for the Lib Dems. If I was the Lib Dems I am not sure I would want him. He is pretty volatile individual.
Yes, he's standing in my constituency against Andrew Mitchell after our usual candidate moved to more promising pastures. I'm a Lib Dem member and have stood as a paper candidate in a previous council election, but I'm not so active these days. I was going to switch my vote tactically to Labour, but have been, I think, tempted back again by a rather moving account of his time in Ukraine. I'm somewhat wary of possible skeletons in his closet though.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
That's their problem. They can't out REFUK the REFUKers.
They can't. Putting myself in the head of a Deplorable (which I can do) I'm voting Farage and Reform, end of. Nothing Sunak says can change that. I can't stand Sunak.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
I am fair set to stain myself when we get tory/Fukker cross-over.
Everything Big Rish does seems to make it fucking worse.
Peter Mandelson (yes, I know) actually suggested last week things were so bad the Tories should consider binning Big Rish before the vote
The trouble is there wouldn’t be consensus on who to pick instead. Plus if you’re the person who gets the short straw in that scenario no way you can argue you are a candidate for PM. Finally no guarantee that it doesn’t make things worse.
Now the election is occurring I think the Tories just have to stick with Sunak and hope.
One thing they could do is publicly fire Levido, because it’s obvious a clown on crack would run a better campaign than he is.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Fieldwork 5-6 June – no 'debate bounce' for Sunak although quite a chunk out of the Labour share that has seemingly gone to LibGrnRef.
Another sub-20% is very bad news as the Tories seemingly have not hit their floor.
As I’ve said elsewhere I expect Reform to do a little worse come the actual election than the polls suggest; my instinct that a good chunk of their VI stems from disillusionment and/or apathy, and apathetic people frequently fail to vote - especially with a party that isn’t really a party, and doesn’t have the GOTV game. Whereas I fully expect a team of six burly men in leisurewear and Ed Davey masks to escort me to the polling booth and make sure I stick my cross next to LD.
Also not hugely surprised that the debate hasn’t changed much. There was so little substance from either leader and the main outtake seems to have been ‘Christ, that was awful television’.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
But Moray etc is a very Brexity area for Scotland, though.
Is it? In 2024?
It was at the time of the vote. Now, disappointment, fishers, farmers ...?
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
Wildly offtopic, but someone pointed me at this the other day.
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
Actually 70mm was used a lot at the time for features Ben Hur south Pacific Lawrence of Arabia Exodus etc. The size of the camera didn't really matter because all the Grand Prix footage is shot from a fixed camera and the only camera movement was an occasional pan. Interesting though to see Monaco without the skyscrapers.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
Even if they did, by the time they're back in power they'll suddenly see the benefits again. It's tragic that it's always in the hands of the party that has most recently disproportionately benefited from it.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
They've released the 'fed up and just wanted you all to leave us alone' genie
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Foxy is in a Tory seat and wants the Tories out. Yet by voting for a minor party, he increases his chances of getting a Tory MP. Simple mathematics. Not comparable in any way with your seat which is certain Labour.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Like Foxy I can’t see Labour taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston. They only had 5.1% of the vote in Oadby and Wigston in 2023 and were a long way behind in Harborough as well. The LDs are a decent long shot bet at 25-1. The LD candidate Phil Knowles is the Current LD Leader of HDC and very well known locally. It is just not a Labour area.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (at most Clacton).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
They've released the 'fed up and just wanted you all to leave us alone' genie
I think releasing the genie and not being able to control it is a very good analogy for what the Tory party has done to itself over the last decade or so.
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Yes. I think there's a big overlap between people who will vote Reform (esp now with Farage) and people who would vote Tory again only if Boris Johnson were still leader.
Tories went all in on squeeze the Reform vote into a small box and all that seems to have happen is Reform vote has popped out the box, like a Jack in the Box.
They've released the 'fed up and just wanted you all to leave us alone' genie
Well there is definitely that. I also think the Tory pitch is always you might not like us, but we are a serious party, serious policies, willing to take tough decisions. Manage the economy first, be pro business, try to keep your taxes down etc.
Now their record is obviously bad, so its a difficult starting point. But they aren't even going with the been tough, but turning it around, here is a serious vision going forward.
The pitch so far as been nonsense stuff about national service etc. People know its not realistic and not tackling any of the big issues. Bugger all to do with cost of living, crime, immigration. Well you might as well vote for Reform (if you right wing Tory) as that lot have been rubbish and coming out with unserious policies.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
you can still get good odds on Reform taking Ashfield - Very good value imo. For those who dont know the area the seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea .This is the reddest of red wall seats , ripe for Reform
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Foxy is in a Tory seat and wants the Tories out. Yet by voting for a minor party, he increases his chances of getting a Tory MP. Simple mathematics. Not comparable in any way with your seat which is certain Labour.
In FPTP most people vote for the least worst party with a chance of winning.
Which means the biggest battle the Lib Dems/SNP have/had is convincing people that they have a real chance of winning.
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Yes. I think there's a big overlap between people who will vote Reform (esp now with Farage) and people who would vote Tory again only if Boris Johnson were still leader.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Haven’t the Libs been in favour of PR for more than a century. Hard to ditch something as ingrained as that.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
What, if they get 9.6% of the seats on 12% of the vote, they'll suddenly be in favour of FPTP?
Ed Davey speeding into LotO at 73mph unless he falls into one of those inland waterways.
Who would have thought a humble paddleboard could help an election campaign so much. He's transformed his public image from "Who?" to enjoyable chappie.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Some evidence for my theory that Reform can take votes off Labour. Their ceiling is higher than you think.
Yes, there is evidence for that. You could even argue that because the lastest change is a bigger decrease of the Labour vote than of the Tory vote, that change is to the Tories' benefit.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
That may well be true. But it seems that many reform voters see all the other parties as 'globalist puppets of the WEF' So apparently they are all the same. As a 'scare tactic' I just don't think it works.
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
I'm having great difficulty working out where Labour lost 4% of their vote to. the 2% gain to the Lib Dems is obvious (and equally reflected in the YouGov poll yesterday) but the rest seems to be margin of error changes...
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Some evidence for my theory that Reform can take votes off Labour. Their ceiling is higher than you think.
Yes, there is evidence for that. You could even argue that because the lastest change is a bigger decrease of the Labour vote than of the Tory vote, that change is to the Tories' benefit.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
That is true, but only up to a point. There does come a point where the reverse starts to apply and Refuk begins to hurt Labour more, but we are some way from that yet.
It brings however unalloyed joy and happines to Sir Ed and buyers of LD seats.
Labour 42% (-4) Conservative 19% (-1) Reform UK 17% (+3) Lib Dem 12% (+2) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
Some evidence for my theory that Reform can take votes off Labour. Their ceiling is higher than you think.
Yes, there is evidence for that. You could even argue that because the lastest change is a bigger decrease of the Labour vote than of the Tory vote, that change is to the Tories' benefit.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
Ed Davey speeding into LotO at 73mph unless he falls into one of those inland waterways.
Who would have thought a humble paddleboard could help an election campaign so much. He's transformed his public image from "Who?" to enjoyable chappie.
Hugh Bonneville minus the super-injunction. The nation's Fun Dad.
You can write a lot about this election, but it really does all come back to the public's assessment of the government being a succinct 'we hate you and nothing works'.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
So not Cameron legging it after he failed to win a referendum he called ?
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Haven’t the Libs been in favour of PR for more than a century. Hard to ditch something as ingrained as that.
Anyone notice the massive lack of Tory branding of any sort on Suella’s campaign video?
Talking your book a bit - the leaflets have them. I think people just embarassed to be Tory at this point.
(although you've successfully spooked me into scratching 95% of that 0 defections... )
Haha yes I am getting carried away but certainly everything is lining up for something big…if you are Suella this is surely the moment
Braverman's in with a decent shout of being next Tory leader. Why would she defect to a party that's still set up to be nothing more than a Farage vanity vehicle, and where she'd have no influence or clout?
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Agree, though on seats I would not rule out a few quislings on the dark blue team joining the light blue to stand and maybe win - Jenkyns for example.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
Ed Davey speeding into LotO at 73mph unless he falls into one of those inland waterways.
Who would have thought a humble paddleboard could help an election campaign so much. He's transformed his public image from "Who?" to enjoyable chappie.
That was very much the plan. To look both more normal and more fun than Starmer or Sunak.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
BoJo's behaviour regarding Chris Pincher started the slide downhill. Note that there haven't been any Tory poll leads since December 2021. Yep, 2021!!
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
The bit where people actually believe it's true. Boris is responsible for all this mess.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
I'm going to call out your idiotic "Waste your vote" statement again because I've seen you do this with me twice now before.
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle. If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win. If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
The Tories might want to change it after July 4th.
It is a self-evident truth that anyone wishing to introduce PR will never be in a position to do so.
Reform even more so, 17% gets them 0 seats (or at most Clacton and Ashfield).
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Indeed, and paradoxically the Libs are likely to become zealous converts to FPP if this carries on.
Haven’t the Libs been in favour of PR for more than a century. Hard to ditch something as ingrained as that.
Yep, and even if you do take the cynical viewpoint I think it would be rather foolish to assume such an outcome would be likely to persist beyond a single election.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
Well, I don't know about blame but those who elected BoZo were definitely bozos.
Must say the picture quality these days is a lot better than the Apollo missions (on which, btw, itw as great to have the feature film a few years back so I could see what it should have looked like).
Wildly offtopic, but someone pointed me at this the other day.
At the 1962 Monaco Grand Prix, a group made a film of the event, that they shot on 70mm film, which must have been horrifically difficult at the time with the heavy cameras and short film lengths. IIRC it was exhibited at Cannes the following year.
Look at it now though, and it’s some of the most captivating footage ever seen of events 60 years ago.
Actually 70mm was used a lot at the time for features Ben Hur south Pacific Lawrence of Arabia Exodus etc. The size of the camera didn't really matter because all the Grand Prix footage is shot from a fixed camera and the only camera movement was an occasional pan. Interesting though to see Monaco without the skyscrapers.
Indeed, I was actually interested in what you might think of it technically.
They were using the equipment that might make a big-budget movie of the day, to film a sporting event, which was rather unusual at the time. My personal favourite shot was the car-mounted camera, which went out in a practice session to be overtaken by all the F1 cars.
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
It would be worse
Worse than Nigel Farage beating them in a general election?
Which means that if they do eclipse the Tories in this election, the people who will carry they blame will be those who plotted against Boris and brought him down.
The blame lies with those who elected BoZo to begin with
What part of “this wouldn’t be happening if BoJo were still leader” don’t you understand?
BoJo's behaviour regarding Chris Pincher started the slide downhill. Note that there haven't been any Tory poll leads since December 2021. Yep, 2021!!
Comments
Of course you might get better odds in an hour’s time…
Tied-lowest % of 2019 Conservatives to say they'd vote Conservative again (tying 16/10/22).
Westminster VI, 2019 Conservatives (5-6 June):
Conservative 37% (-5)
Reform 29% (+10)
Labour 19% (-2)
Other 6% (–)
Don't Know 10% (-1)
Changes +/- 31 May-2 June
Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled.
Reform is in SECOND place with voters aged 55-64 and 65+.
Westminster VI, By Age (5-6 June):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 41%
25-34: 26%
35-44: 18%
45-54: 11%
55-64: 18%
65+: 17%
(P.S. he is great on that How to Win an Election podcast. The Fink is decent too. But the weird obsession Chorley has with his own theme tune is nauseating)
NEW: @TimesRadio @JLPartnersPolls focus group with Conservative-to-Reform switchers in Gedling, Ashfield and Derby North
💥 Nigel Farage "positive", "vocal", "outspoken", "arrogant", "refreshing"
💥 They like - and want - a "Donald Trump for the UK", someone not a "gentleman" but strong and who will get things done
💥 Rishi Sunak is "embarrassing", a "waste of space", "ineffective" and a "powerless puppet"
💥 Politician after politician - Tory and Labour - have failed them on immigration, taxes, and promises, and that is why they are opting for Reform UK. "Change is worth a go"
💥 I read out the Tory 'squeeze message': that a vote for Reform is a vote for Starmer. This was dismissed as a "ploy" to "scare" voters: "I'm voting for whoever I want"
💥 I then read out the 'mega-squeeze': surely a vote for Reform just makes a massive Labour majority more likely? The answer: a Tory government under Sunak would be the same as a Labour landslide - high immigration, high taxes.
💥 In their words, this focus group are "done" with the Conservatives and won't be coming back.
Focus groups are not representative, so the picture in the country could be very different. But if it's anything like this then the Tories are in a truly dire - even existential - situation.
podfollow.com/660638948/epis…
Something that is often forgotten - a large number of the 2019 Tory vote might be considered natural 2024 Reform voters, who had merely lent their votes to 2019 Boris as the closest thing to Farage that they could get.
Pretty much Sunak's worst nightmare.
Labour leads by 18% with men and 24% with women.
Reform are SECOND among men.
Westminster VI (5-6 June):
(Men | Women)
Labour (37% | 39%)
Reform UK (19% | 12%)
Conservative (18% | 15%)
Lib Dem (10% | 12%)
Others (10% | 9%)
Don't know (7% | 13%)
Anyone notice the massive lack of Tory branding of any sort on Suella’s campaign video?
How do people waste there vote? What should they do?
I'm in Bootle.
If I vote Labour, I've wasted my vote because Labour will get 1 trillion billion to the power of a trillion votes. One more is wasted because it won't help them win.
If I vote not-Labour, what's the point? Will the not-Labour candidate feel better by getting two votes instead of one and coming second as the best loser? Either way, that vote is wasted.
So tell me, if you ever did.... why is voting not-Labour in Bootle a wasted vote? Why is voting Labour the same?
We can discuss FPTP all day. It's shit, we know. But the two parties won't change it because then they might not win.
Now the election is occurring I think the Tories just have to stick with Sunak and hope.
One thing they could do is publicly fire Levido, because it’s obvious a clown on crack would run a better campaign than he is.
(although you've successfully spooked me into scratching 95% of that 0 defections... )
Blue Tory Red Tory same thing.
CON 40
LAB 507
LIB 63
REF 2
GRN 2
SNP 14
PLC 4
LAB majority of 364.
Tories third party.
As I’ve said elsewhere I expect Reform to do a little worse come the actual election than the polls suggest; my instinct that a good chunk of their VI stems from disillusionment and/or apathy, and apathetic people frequently fail to vote - especially with a party that isn’t really a party, and doesn’t have the GOTV game. Whereas I fully expect a team of six burly men in leisurewear and Ed Davey masks to escort me to the polling booth and make sure I stick my cross next to LD.
Also not hugely surprised that the debate hasn’t changed much. There was so little substance from either leader and the main outtake seems to have been ‘Christ, that was awful television’.
And, we appear to be seeing a huge surge in tactical voting.
Per latest Redfield poll:
9% of 2019 Labour voters say they'll vote Lib Dem. That's tons more than I usually see.
Meanwhile, 38% of 2019 Lib Dem voters say they'll vote Labour, meaning still net movement towards Labour from LD.
https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1798741465008607518?s=46
How many of them are of the hard left?
I'm still not totally convinced Starmer himself isn't a lefty in a New Labour coat. Anyone called Keir must be suspect...
Or Soho Plumbers ?
All a vote for Reform does under FPTP is hand Labour or the LDs extra seats
Now their record is obviously bad, so its a difficult starting point. But they aren't even going with the been tough, but turning it around, here is a serious vision going forward.
The pitch so far as been nonsense stuff about national service etc. People know its not realistic and not tackling any of the big issues. Bugger all to do with cost of living, crime, immigration. Well you might as well vote for Reform (if you right wing Tory) as that lot have been rubbish and coming out with unserious policies.
Which means the biggest battle the Lib Dems/SNP have/had is convincing people that they have a real chance of winning.
In the Redfield poll the Conservatives are losing 32% of their 2019 voters to Reform. Labour just 4%. As with YouGov yesterday it's completely asymmetric.
But I still think that having the right-wing vote evenly divided between the Tories and Refuk is Starmer's dream scenario.
EXC: Hospitalised David Duguid to miss out on £15k redundancy payment after Douglas Ross selection row.
But Ross will get the redundo if he loses on July 4th.
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1798746990941184288
I noticed Peter Firth, lead from the Double Deckers, is also in it.
It brings however unalloyed joy and happines to Sir Ed and buyers of LD seats.
But Ross will get the redundo if he loses on July 4th.
dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/…
Ross’s behaviour gets less edifying the more you look at it…
You can write a lot about this election, but it really does all come back to the public's assessment of the government being a succinct 'we hate you and nothing works'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilford_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
They were using the equipment that might make a big-budget movie of the day, to film a sporting event, which was rather unusual at the time. My personal favourite shot was the car-mounted camera, which went out in a practice session to be overtaken by all the F1 cars.