Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Oh, I agree it looks that way.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
Who did the appointing?
At the senior levels, I am sure that was a factor in their appointments. The oiks were just told to shut up and get on with their jobs, which on the whole they were only too happy to do.
The Inquiry has done a fantastic job of turning over stones. Not sure it will be as successful now that it is approaching the Civil/Service Government phase, but let's not underestimate Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing(but bloodysharpItellyou) and his gang. There's a hell of a lot of evidence out there already, and some of the principals are beginning to rat on each other.
I see Douglas Ross’ political career is over, and if it isn’t, it should be. Chicken run to displace ill but recovering colleague. Hope he loses.
Not sure what you're on about. David Duguid has clearly been incapacited and a chunk of his new constituency has been represented by Douglas Ross for the last seven years so makes sense for him to take over as he's a know quantity locally. And ss he's safely in Holyrood anyway hardly a chicken run - in fact he's taking quite a reputational risk if he fails to win. Much safer to have found someone else to stand. Of course, if he does make it to Westminster then he could be quite an influential player in the much-reduced Tory parliamentary party. But will leave the MSP group the job of finding a new leader.
Ross is *already* both an MSP and Scottish Tory leader. He had announced he was quitting Westminster to focus on Holyrood. And refereeing. But obviously has changed his mind...
The way the two main parties have treated candidate selection in this election is just awful. Completely treating local parties and local democracy as an inconvenience. Local members must do what they are instructed to.
Between Boris, Truss and Corbyn, party members have forfeited their right to be consulted. They're worse than an inconvenience, they're a liability.
Deputy First Minister @_Kate Forbes: "If Douglas Ross wants to back the north east, there are some big questions for him this very day on a day he betrays a Conservative candidate in the north east..." #FMQs
How do we know David Duguid isn't standing down for health reasons?
He said he wanted to fight the seat . The Tories basically said they replaced him for his own good .
Absolutely not my political cup of tea, but David Duguid has a pretty substantial local, personal vote. Ross could certainly lose, and just for the Lols it would be fun to see.
I disliked Duguid's politics and have been pretty open about it. But as a person? Everyone agrees he is a lovely guy. And this isn't about partisan politics, this is how do we want politics to be done.
If the party does not feel Duguid is fit to stand then why did they let him stand? He was an approved candidate available for selection and was duly selected. Removing him with 2 days to go - literally firing him on his sickbed - is not on.
Love how Ross hides behind the party management board. The board he is a member of...
But as another poster commented today, this is the Tory attitude to the sick and disabled. Maybe an attack line for you. It's certainly in part a non-devolved area, DWP and all that.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
That's a bit different to what you put in Benpointers Excellent Competition, Pubman!
Let’s not go mocking anyone for their predictions in that competition. I definitely have no ulterior motive in saying that…..
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Oh, I agree it looks that way.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
Who did the appointing?
At the senior levels, I am sure that was a factor in their appointments. The oiks were just told to shut up and get on with their jobs, which on the whole they were only too happy to do.
The Inquiry has done a fantastic job of turning over stones. Not sure it will be as successful now that it is approaching the Civil/Service Government phase, but let's not underestimate Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing(but bloodysharpItellyou) and his gang. There's a hell of a lot of evidence out there already, and some of the principals are beginning to rat on each other.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Hasn’t there been a lot written recently about how in 1997 there was actually similarly low enthusiasm for Blair/Labour pre-election, to Starmer now, and people remember it wrong?
Might we see in years to come, people saying “Remember 2024 when Starmer was wildly popular?”
Isn’t there a decent amount of evidence that the 1997 ‘enthusiasm for Blair/Labour’ is a bit Mandela effect? And that actually the feeling was quite similar to now?
Maybe in years to come people will say “Remember 2024 when everyone was
South Holland - 71% Brexit, 13% Labour in 2019 - 16/1 Reform to win with Sky bet Also had a small be on Amber Valley - 65% Brexit, 27% Lab in 2019 - 33/1 Reform to win with Sky bet
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Oh, I agree it looks that way.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
Who did the appointing?
Does anyone else wonder if AP was deliberately scheduled to give evidence to the enquiry during the DDay commemorations?
No. Whatever else has gone on - I don't think the inquiry itself is part of the conspiracy.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Hasn’t there been a lot written recently about how in 1997 there was actually similarly low enthusiasm for Blair/Labour pre-election, to Starmer now, and people remember it wrong?
Might we see in years to come, people saying “Remember 2024 when Starmer was wildly popular?”
Isn’t there a decent amount of evidence that the 1997 ‘enthusiasm for Blair/Labour’ is a bit Mandela effect? And that actually the feeling was quite similar to now?
Maybe in years to come people will say “Remember 2024 when everyone was
Are LD new favourites in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?
No but @RochdalePioneers now has a chance that didn't exist 2 days ago...
We should have a PB outing. Every poster, of every political persuasion, goes up to Aberdeenshire for the day to campaign for @RochdalePioneers. Otherwise we won't have a PB MP in the next parliament and that would never do.
That said I just looked at the train fare and it's £270 return, so maybe not.
Excellent idea! Remember, though, that the last 90 minutes of the journey will be on a bus, and English and Welsh bus passes are not valid in Scotland.
We're not all retired you know
I looked at travelling from Llandudno to Elgin by train recently and it was routed Crewe - Waverley - Dundee - Elgin
It seemed quite a good service and is useful for us to know
You could do the sleeper from Crewe to Aberdeen or Inverness.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
That's a bit different to what you put in Benpointers Excellent Competition, Pubman!
Yes indeed it is. I put LAB maj 30. Looks like I was wrong! It's happened before.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
That's a bit different to what you put in Benpointers Excellent Competition, Pubman!
Yes indeed it is. I put LAB maj 30. Looks like I was wrong! It's happened before.
I suspect even @Peter_the_Punter will have under estimated the Labour majority...
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Hasn’t there been a lot written recently about how in 1997 there was actually similarly low enthusiasm for Blair/Labour pre-election, to Starmer now, and people remember it wrong?
Might we see in years to come, people saying “Remember 2024 when Starmer was wildly popular?”
Isn’t there a decent amount of evidence that the 1997 ‘enthusiasm for Blair/Labour’ is a bit Mandela effect? And that actually the feeling was quite similar to now?
Maybe in years to come people will say “Remember 2024 when everyone was
If Labour and the LDs had more charismatic leaders I think we would be talking about the perfect storm. All the other ingredients appear to be present.
South Holland - 71% Brexit, 13% Labour in 2019 - 16/1 Reform to win with Sky bet Also had a small be on Amber Valley - 65% Brexit, 27% Lab in 2019 - 33/1 Reform to win with Sky bet
I don't seen any of these happening. They probably need to get 25% to start winning more than two or three seats.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
That's a bit different to what you put in Benpointers Excellent Competition, Pubman!
Yes indeed it is. I put LAB maj 30. Looks like I was wrong! It's happened before.
I suspect even @Peter_the_Punter will have under estimated the Tory majority...
In the event I am nearly right I will, in deference to TSE and his own endless humility, refrain from mentioning the fact more than three times a day.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm sure you have, a hashtag doesn't mean it's remotely possible and may only be being posted for the Lols.
The SCon enthusiasts posting them are not known for their humorousness, particularly not when it comes to lol at their own noisily impotent pols.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
Beer absolutely nailed Perkins. If she is not arraigned for perverting the course of justice it can only be because of a behind-the-scenes stitch up.
I have/had absolutely no ambition or aptitude for climbing the greasy pole but when the veil is drawn back on these people you do start to wonder how just about anyone with a bit of curiosity could have done a worse job.
Perkins' evidence has confirmed for me that it had nothing to do with lack of curiosity. It was indeed a blatant cover-up, extending over decades and with hundreds implicated from the Board down.
The next part of the Inquiry should indicate to what extent the Civil Service and Government is similarly implicated.
Oh, I agree it looks that way.
If it was a conspiracy then that implies the people being appointed were appointed specifically for their ability to look the other way - and that must have been clear to them before they even started.
Anyone vaguely competent would surely have asked questions.
Who did the appointing?
Does anyone else wonder if AP was deliberately scheduled to give evidence to the enquiry during the DDay commemorations?
No. Whatever else has gone on - I don't think the inquiry itself is part of the conspiracy.
What happens to these people afterwards might be.
The incompetence and vagueness *is* part of a pattern.
People were appointed who “were a safe pair of hands” and were “team players”. This happens all the time in dysfunctional organisations. People who wouldn’t cause trouble for their peers.
I just took the German "Wahl-o-mat" (a "voting matching" website) for the EU-Parliament election this weekend. I was amazed at how well the results matched with my pecrecptions of the main parties. AfD was rock bottom from about 30 parties listed and the new BSW (Bündnis Sara Wageknecht) was not much higher.
Does anyone know of a similar machine for the UK election?
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Reform actually matched Conservative yesterday on YouGov's old methodology. The switch in methodology saved the Tories from the 'crossover' narrative.
Instead the crossover narrative might come after Friday’s debate.
Mordaunt is probably a decent opponent however, she might do alright vs Farage?
The football being on at the same time won’t help viewership, mind - but the viral clips that come after the debate might be more revealing.
Genuinely - clips from Friday’s debate going viral will be the first time millions of people will even know Farage is standing.
South Holland - 71% Brexit, 13% Labour in 2019 - 16/1 Reform to win with Sky bet Also had a small be on Amber Valley - 65% Brexit, 27% Lab in 2019 - 33/1 Reform to win with Sky bet
I don't seen any of these happening. They probably need to get 25% to start winning more than two or three seats.
I take GarethoftheVale's earlier point about the demographics of the seat, but I'd have thought that John Hayes would have a substantial personal vote in South Holland - plus, he makes Refuk look like a bunch of woke lefties!
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Reform actually matched Conservative yesterday on YouGov's old methodology. The switch in methodology saved the Tories from the 'crossover' narrative.
Instead the crossover narrative might come after Friday’s debate.
Mordaunt is probably a decent opponent however, she might do alright vs Farage?
The football being on at the same time won’t help viewership, mind - but the viral clips that come after the debate might be more revealing.
Genuinely - clips from Friday’s debate going viral will be the first time millions of people will even know Farage is standing.
That also works well for Ed Davey too.
Ed will be testing to destruction the theory that nice guys don't win.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm sure you have, a hashtag doesn't mean it's remotely possible and may only be being posted for the Lols.
The SCon enthusiasts posting them are not known for their humorousness, particularly not when it comes to lol at their own noisily impotent pols.
I can see why you might think that only those who think an independent Scotland is a good idea have a sense of humour but I can assure you that is not the case.
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Reform actually matched Conservative yesterday on YouGov's old methodology. The switch in methodology saved the Tories from the 'crossover' narrative.
Instead the crossover narrative might come after Friday’s debate.
Mordaunt is probably a decent opponent however, she might do alright vs Farage?
The football being on at the same time won’t help viewership, mind - but the viral clips that come after the debate might be more revealing.
Genuinely - clips from Friday’s debate going viral will be the first time millions of people will even know Farage is standing.
Every marker is pointing to a 1997 result. I know we don't believe it - well some of us don't - but it's time to consider that it really is going to happen on current trends.
I think @Heathener will be vindicated with her predictions of a 97 meltdown which, to be fair to her, were made well in advance of the election.
The only thing I still think is wrong is the level of visceral anger she says there is. I just see apathy and I think you are right in another of your posts re- SKS approval rating. People have made their minds up and very little will change it.
I am still thinking 175-200 Tory seats and a decent labour majority. But who knows.
There is nothing like the enthusiasm for LAB that there was in 1997. However CON are in a much worse state now. So LAB could well get 400+, 200 or maybe slightly more is now at the top of any realistic CON expectations.
Hasn’t there been a lot written recently about how in 1997 there was actually similarly low enthusiasm for Blair/Labour pre-election, to Starmer now, and people remember it wrong?
Might we see in years to come, people saying “Remember 2024 when Starmer was wildly popular?”
Isn’t there a decent amount of evidence that the 1997 ‘enthusiasm for Blair/Labour’ is a bit Mandela effect? And that actually the feeling was quite similar to now?
Maybe in years to come people will say “Remember 2024 when everyone was
I don't remember that at all.
Even with the clause 4 stuff, the 'all the same' left would have been tiny, and social media hadn't caused anything like the fractures/polarisation we get today.
The Electoral Commission has updated its donations database for Q1 2024. Zero reportable donations to the SNP. Just the regular “short money” allocation from the House of Commons, which is very likely to collapse after the general election.
So if they lose half their Short money, they’re pretty much screwed as a party, left with membership fees and begging for tithes from elected MPs and MSPs.
Stuart Andrew: from Pudsey to Daventry. Neil Hudson: from Penrith to Epping Forest. Chris Clarkson: from Heywood&Middleton to Stratford-on-Avon. Kieran Mullan: from Crewe&Nantwich to Bexhill&Battle. Richard Holden: from NW Durham to Basildon&Billericay.
Watched FMQs earlier. Swinney and Sarwar at D Day memorial. Forbes much better than Swinney or Yousaf. Jackie Baillie much better than Sarwar, or anyone else. Ross as bad as usual. Much applause when Forbes commented on his replacement of Duguid.
So, I recall a few PBers predicting SCon gains and a couple floating a ‘value’ punt for the SNP to lose all their seats. Anyone care to nail their flags to those particular masts today?
"Nigel Farage may be about to pull off a once-in-a-century political realignment
We could be just days away from a tipping point in the polls when Reform overtakes the Conservatives"
"Farage’s re-entry into British politics has set off a chain reaction with uncontrollable and unpredictable consequences. The Tories are on the verge of being sucked into a death spiral. The wets and other centrist-dad wannabes must face facts: they bear full responsibility for the possible demise of their once great party."
The more they encourage their readers to do it by saying it is likely the more it may happen.
It's notable just how much formerly Tory commentators despise the party and clearly want it to be replaced.
Picture if you will a scenario like this.
1. Before nominations close tomorrow, Farage announces a number of Tory defections. He publishes a list of 100+ Reform target seats and states they will focus their attention on those seats. Reiterating Tories cannot win and that Tory voters need to come across to Reform.
2. Farage has a good debate.
3. Crossover happens in a poll or two. The MSM picks up on this and a narrative starts to run that Reform can beat the Tories.
4. The DM, Telegraph and Express endorse Reform and reiterate the message.
5. The movement from the Tories to Reform in the polls becomes less of a trickle and more of a flood.
7. GE night, Reform take votes from Tories and Labour and come second in seat count. The Tories essentially collapse and are wiped out. Labour get their stonking majority, and a new populist right wing opposition.
This is obviously fantasy politics. But the mood is febrile. I don’t think it’s impossible this could happen. But it’s the crossover at 3 that matters. If that doesn’t happen, the rest of it won’t fall into place.
Here's my personal take on this, as a probable Tory/Reform swing voter; I expect my logic below will not be atypical of people in my position.
I would rather have a Reform government than a Tory one, mostly because I think we have to get immigration down to solve the long term issues the country faces, and I don't believe that for all the noise, the Tories will do actually do anything about immigration.
I would rather have a Tory government than a Labour one, not from any great love for the Tories but because on almost every issue I expect Labour to be even worse (more tax, which will mostly get spent wastefully on pay rises for the public sector, more immigration, more "green" spending with very dubious rates of return, more expensive regulations for everything).
I live in High Peak which in 2019 was a Tory-Lab marginal. Last time round I voted Tory, and would have done so even had the Brexit party stood.
This time round, there is zero chance the current Tory holds it on current polling, so I might as well express my true preference and vote Reform.
If I lived in a seat that the Tories might conceivably hang onto, it would all depend on how Reform are polling; I might vote for the Tory if I looked like it would keep Labour out, however if we reach crossover I'd definitely be voting Reform.
If there are a reasonable number of people who think like me, then once Reform reach a certain point in the polls (and they aren't far off now), the dam breaks, and it's probably the end for the Tories.
Farrage as Leader of the Opposition would be epic for popcorn sales and terrible for Starmer - I would think he'd almost certainly he'd lose in 5 years time to a Farrage/Tory rump coupon.
So, I recall a few PBers predicting SCon gains and a couple floating a ‘value’ punt for the SNP to lose all their seats. Anyone care to nail their flags to those particular masts today?
SNP won't lose all their seats certainly but there's some chance of SCon gaining one or two, it depends where the SNP vote ends up. Perth and Kinross, Angus and the glens, Argyll look interesting battles,although I think Luke G might have pissed off the good folk of Perth at the hustings
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm sure you have, a hashtag doesn't mean it's remotely possible and may only be being posted for the Lols.
The SCon enthusiasts posting them are not known for their humorousness, particularly not when it comes to lol at their own noisily impotent pols.
I can see why you might think that only those who think an independent Scotland is a good idea have a sense of humour but I can assure you that is not the case.
The number of SCons who went baws deep for Truss and her economic policies was certainly funny in a grim sort of a way, but I'm not sure D.Ross and co saw the joke even in retrospect.
At the PO Inquiry, Alice Perkins just accused Paula Vennells of lying.
Former Post office Chair Alice Perkins is wife of Jack Straw and Labour, former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells was given a CBE by Tory PM Theresa May
Don't think that's relevant - the entire Post Office board is now a sack of cats all trying to pin the blame on anyone who isn't themselves..
Can’t get enough popcorn for this! I can see the whole lot of them being done.
They all deserve to be done, but the scandal encompassed the entire organisation over more than twenty years, so the numbers would truly reach into four figures. Even the Nurenberg Trials, with which the scandal shows some depressing similarities, only prosecuted 199 defendants.
My guess is that the biggest and smallest fish will be the ones to slip through the net. They will pass over the so-called investigators, secretaries and PR people, and also the Board (but scapegoat Vennells). That probably gives them about twenty or so convictions, which should be enough to satisfy the mob.
I can't see any lawyers getting done. Their misdemeanours will no doubt be considered by the Law Society, which I expect will ensure that the more serious offenders are made to stay behind after school, or be given lines.
It seems just Sunak's luck that the only areas where the public think has got better since 2010 are all the ones that his own party doesn't fully support
Saw my first garden placard today in Norwich, a Green. Looks suspiciously like one left over from the locals though!
I saw a Green one yesterday, strategically placed opposite Kingham Station (Oxfordshire). Yet to see a Blue one anywhere.
Round here it's a sea of Yellow.
Kingham is a little pocket of Green support - the LibDems have stood down for them in local elections a couple of times. The Greens aren't actively campaigning round here though, as far as I can see.
So can we conclude that Douglas Ross finally understands his true chances of ever becoming First Minister?
He never had any chance of being First Minister. The next FM, assuming Swinney does not resign in disgrace after losing a very large number of MPs, is Sarwar. At the moment he is leader of the opposition. In the next Parliament that will probably be Kate Forbes.
This has been the life of a Tory in Scotland since the 1950s. I very much doubt it will have come as a surprise to him.
I’m sure I’ve frequently seen the hashtags #ruth4FM, #ross4FM and most tittersome, #jackson4FM.
I'm sure you have, a hashtag doesn't mean it's remotely possible and may only be being posted for the Lols.
The SCon enthusiasts posting them are not known for their humorousness, particularly not when it comes to lol at their own noisily impotent pols.
I can see why you might think that only those who think an independent Scotland is a good idea have a sense of humour but I can assure you that is not the case.
The number of SCons who went baws deep for Truss and her economic policies was certainly funny in a grim sort of a way, but I'm not sure D.Ross and co saw the joke even in retrospect.
Duguid was a big supporter of Truss. And made a minister for 5 minutes as a reward.
It seems just Sunak's luck that the only areas where the public think has got better since 2010 are all the ones that his own party doesn't fully support
So not even 10% think its better on the vast majority of factors. It is a shockingly bad scorecard.
Two Lib Dem officials arrested in Harrogate over election issues from the LEs. DYOR but Tories available at 11/4 to hold here.
Dodgy Lib Dem leaflets...never...
North Yorkshire Police are investigating the party members in Harrogate after campaign material wrongly claimed the Green Party were not contesting a by-election.
The North Yorkshire Council poll for the Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone ward took place in March after former Liberal Democrat Pat Marsh resigned. A leaflet distributed to households said the Greens had '"stood down" when they had actually fielded a candidate. The Liberal Democrats blamed the misinformation on a "printing mistake".
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
I'm not talking much about the general election tax debate. Because it's irrelevant. The few £bn being discussed is dwarfed by the actual tax UK tax increases over the last few years, and the further tax increases we'll almost certainly see in the future.
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, is reportedly under pressure from Labour frontbenchers to increase capital gains tax. Some shadow cabinet ministers are pushing for the change to be made at an autumn Budget to raise more money for public services, The Guardian reported.
It seems just Sunak's luck that the only areas where the public think has got better since 2010 are all the ones that his own party doesn't fully support
So not even 10% think its better on the vast majority of factors. It is a shockingly bad scorecard.
How on earth has 'action the UK is taking on climate change' have a greater score for worse than better? This illustrates more than anything else the lack of objectivity of this poll.
Reform UK has said it will abolish inheritance tax for estates worth under £2 million in a pledge that increases pressure on the Conservatives to promise their own changes...
Tories been beaten to the punch messing about with nonsense national service type policies.
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
About three to four months before I can resume a normal life. Abscess was huge.
I'm not talking much about the general election tax debate. Because it's irrelevant. The few £bn being discussed is dwarfed by the actual tax UK tax increases over the last few years, and the further tax increases we'll almost certainly see in the future.
And even clearer why all BS about VAT on private schools for £1bn isn't really anything to do with tax raising.
Unless massive growth returns to the economy swiftly, there is true danger of a doom loop of ever increasing taxes (directly and indirectly). But no everybody is arguing over things like gendered toilets.
Lord knows what he would have done with me this week whilst I was in hospital.
Op went well, should be released tomorrow.
Good luck with your release - in my experience it was one of the things the NHS did poorly, with several patients delayed by several days. I was told I could go home on Tuesday - didn’t happen until Thursday. On the positive side, the really important bits - the operations went very well.
It seems just Sunak's luck that the only areas where the public think has got better since 2010 are all the ones that his own party doesn't fully support
So not even 10% think its better on the vast majority of factors. It is a shockingly bad scorecard.
How on earth has 'action the UK is taking on climate change' have a greater score for worse than better? This illustrates more than anything else the lack of objectivity of this poll.
It depends a bit on how you interpret the question I suppose.
Is it to be baselined against expectations/capability at the time or absolute? If in 2034 the next government has improved "action the UK is taking" but only by 1% I'd consider that a big failure relative to now, even if in absolute terms we are taking more action.
Reform UK has said it will abolish inheritance tax for estates worth under £2 million in a pledge that increases pressure on the Conservatives to promise their own changes...
Tories been beaten to the punch messing about with nonsense national service type policies.
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
About three to four months before I can resume a normal life. Abscess was huge.
No driving for six weeks etc.
Worst of all no nookie for a similar period.
More time to concentrate on the excitement of the GE ;-)
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
About three to four months before I can resume a normal life. Abscess was huge.
Lord knows what he would have done with me this week whilst I was in hospital.
Op went well, should be released tomorrow.
Good luck with your release - in my experience it was one of the things the NHS did poorly, with several patients delayed by several days. I was told I could go home on Tuesday - didn’t happen until Thursday. On the positive side, the really important bits - the operations went very well.
They have been open with me, the size of the abscess and my diabetes means they want to be cautious with the recovery.
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
About three to four months before I can resume a normal life. Abscess was huge.
No driving for six weeks etc.
Worst of all no nookie for a similar period.
More time to concentrate on the excitement of the GE ;-)
The Electoral Commission has updated its donations database for Q1 2024. Zero reportable donations to the SNP. Just the regular “short money” allocation from the House of Commons, which is very likely to collapse after the general election.
So if they lose half their Short money, they’re pretty much screwed as a party, left with membership fees and begging for tithes from elected MPs and MSPs.
Yeah, the SNP definitely need to get a few millionaire racists in tow.
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
About three to four months before I can resume a normal life. Abscess was huge.
Did people really not know is? That basically every brand beer is made by AB InBev or Heineken. On thing the article gets wrong, San Miguel isn't European, its Filipino.
Don't think they are banned in RoI. Though our ban is hardly effective - a pug got savaged down the road from me a few days ago. Think the dog is still extant.
They might be banned in Ireland soon after the current inept Justice Minister is replaced following the election, due early next year.
Two Lib Dem officials arrested in Harrogate over election issues from the LEs. DYOR but Tories available at 11/4 to hold here.
Dodgy Lib Dem leaflets...never...
North Yorkshire Police are investigating the party members in Harrogate after campaign material wrongly claimed the Green Party were not contesting a by-election.
The North Yorkshire Council poll for the Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone ward took place in March after former Liberal Democrat Pat Marsh resigned. A leaflet distributed to households said the Greens had '"stood down" when they had actually fielded a candidate. The Liberal Democrats blamed the misinformation on a "printing mistake".
No such thing as a “printing mistake”. If you’re the registered agent, you’re personally responsible for all the leaflets that go out with your name on them.
Two Lib Dem officials arrested in Harrogate over election issues from the LEs. DYOR but Tories available at 11/4 to hold here.
Dodgy Lib Dem leaflets...never...
North Yorkshire Police are investigating the party members in Harrogate after campaign material wrongly claimed the Green Party were not contesting a by-election.
The North Yorkshire Council poll for the Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone ward took place in March after former Liberal Democrat Pat Marsh resigned. A leaflet distributed to households said the Greens had '"stood down" when they had actually fielded a candidate. The Liberal Democrats blamed the misinformation on a "printing mistake".
No such thing as a “printing mistake”. If you’re the registered agent, you’re personally responsible for all the leaflets that go out with your name on them.
And of course Lib Dems have particular form on LE leaflets being dodgy as hell.
Glad to see TSE is recovering from his encounter with the barber surgeon. Hopefully his recovery to full health will be swift, aided one imagines by a timely course of leeches.
About three to four months before I can resume a normal life. Abscess was huge.
No driving for six weeks etc.
Worst of all no nookie for a similar period.
Yeah abscesses are a grim thing. My mother developed one a few years back after major surgery, so they couldn’t risk surgery to drain it. She is also allergic to quite a few antibiotics, so she was on massive amounts of the ones she could take plus regular scans to ensure the abscess was reducing. Took 6 months to fix and another 6 months to fully recover.
So it could have been far worse. I’m sure 6 weeks abstinence will do you the power of good, plus you can use the time to profitably search out new pop culture references for future pb threads.
Comments
The Inquiry has done a fantastic job of turning over stones. Not sure it will be as successful now that it is approaching the Civil/Service Government phase, but let's not underestimate Sir Wyn Nice-Oldthing(but bloodysharpItellyou) and his gang. There's a hell of a lot of evidence out there already, and some of the principals are beginning to rat on each other.
Order more popcorn.
I just thought you’d got bit on the bum by a horsefly. I wasn’t paying proper attention Sorry. Get well soon.
Might we see in years to come, people saying “Remember 2024 when Starmer was wildly popular?”
Isn’t there a decent amount of evidence that the 1997 ‘enthusiasm for Blair/Labour’ is a bit Mandela effect? And that actually the feeling was quite similar to now?
Maybe in years to come people will say “Remember 2024 when everyone was
South Holland - 71% Brexit, 13% Labour in 2019 - 16/1 Reform to win with Sky bet
Also had a small be on Amber Valley - 65% Brexit, 27% Lab in 2019 - 33/1 Reform to win with Sky bet
It should be iivestreamed here:
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-4
What happens to these people afterwards might be.
https://x.com/MatthewPrice01/status/1798594404355051965
Edit - that was a typo and a half
People were appointed who “were a safe pair of hands” and were “team players”. This happens all the time in dysfunctional organisations. People who wouldn’t cause trouble for their peers.
Starmer has confidence in him and that is obviously what matters: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyxxv1d1w0lo
Hey ho.
Round here it's a sea of Yellow.
Does anyone know of a similar machine for the UK election?
Booster 11 (first stage)
Reuse
Recycle
https://unherd.com/newsroom/only-16-of-brits-would-fight-to-defend-france/
Even with the clause 4 stuff, the 'all the same' left would have been tiny, and social media hadn't caused anything like the fractures/polarisation we get today.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13500915/British-parachutists-met-French-immigration-officials-landed-Normandy-historic-D-Day-jump.html
https://order-order.com/2024/06/06/times-now-reports-on-the-labour-love-affair-setting-tongues-wagging/
I would rather have a Reform government than a Tory one, mostly because I think we have to get immigration down to solve the long term issues the country faces, and I don't believe that for all the noise, the Tories will do actually do anything about immigration.
I would rather have a Tory government than a Labour one, not from any great love for the Tories but because on almost every issue I expect Labour to be even worse (more tax, which will mostly get spent wastefully on pay rises for the public sector, more immigration, more "green" spending with very dubious rates of return, more expensive regulations for everything).
I live in High Peak which in 2019 was a Tory-Lab marginal. Last time round I voted Tory, and would have done so even had the Brexit party stood.
This time round, there is zero chance the current Tory holds it on current polling, so I might as well express my true preference and vote Reform.
If I lived in a seat that the Tories might conceivably hang onto, it would all depend on how Reform are polling; I might vote for the Tory if I looked like it would keep Labour out, however if we reach crossover I'd definitely be voting Reform.
If there are a reasonable number of people who think like me, then once Reform reach a certain point in the polls (and they aren't far off now), the dam breaks, and it's probably the end for the Tories.
Farrage as Leader of the Opposition would be epic for popcorn sales and terrible for Starmer - I would think he'd almost certainly he'd lose in 5 years time to a Farrage/Tory rump coupon.
My guess is that the biggest and smallest fish will be the ones to slip through the net. They will pass over the so-called investigators, secretaries and PR people, and also the Board (but scapegoat Vennells). That probably gives them about twenty or so convictions, which should be enough to satisfy the mob.
I can't see any lawyers getting done. Their misdemeanours will no doubt be considered by the Law Society, which I expect will ensure that the more serious offenders are made to stay behind after school, or be given lines.
North Yorkshire Police are investigating the party members in Harrogate after campaign material wrongly claimed the Green Party were not contesting a by-election.
The North Yorkshire Council poll for the Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone ward took place in March after former Liberal Democrat Pat Marsh resigned. A leaflet distributed to households said the Greens had '"stood down" when they had actually fielded a candidate. The Liberal Democrats blamed the misinformation on a "printing mistake".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clww9l5ryppo
I'm not talking much about the general election tax debate. Because it's irrelevant. The few £bn being discussed is dwarfed by the actual tax UK tax increases over the last few years, and the further tax increases we'll almost certainly see in the future.
Grumpy thread:
https://x.com/danneidle/status/1798674346103480735?
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, is reportedly under pressure from Labour frontbenchers to increase capital gains tax. Some shadow cabinet ministers are pushing for the change to be made at an autumn Budget to raise more money for public services, The Guardian reported.
Tories been beaten to the punch messing about with nonsense national service type policies.
No driving for six weeks etc.
Worst of all no nookie for a similar period.
Unless massive growth returns to the economy swiftly, there is true danger of a doom loop of ever increasing taxes (directly and indirectly). But no everybody is arguing over things like gendered toilets.
Is it to be baselined against expectations/capability at the time or absolute? If in 2034 the next government has improved "action the UK is taking" but only by 1% I'd consider that a big failure relative to now, even if in absolute terms we are taking more action.
I hope you have plenty of popcorn in.
It's just what this doctor ordered 🍿 🍿 🍿
I’ll be working w/b the 17th.
But not much physical activity for a while.
Did people really not know is? That basically every brand beer is made by AB InBev or Heineken. On thing the article gets wrong, San Miguel isn't European, its Filipino.
Edit: missed the above and assumed some big new poll was coming haha!
So it could have been far worse. I’m sure 6 weeks abstinence will do you the power of good, plus you can use the time to profitably search out new pop culture references for future pb threads.