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So now it is down to 8 – politicalbetting.com
So now it is down to 8 – politicalbetting.com
Sir Graham Brady confirms there are 8?? candidates for the Conservative leadership:BadenochBravermanHuntMordauntSunakTrussTugendhatZahawiMPs will vote for the first time tomorrow – result as soon as possible after ballot closes at 3.30pm.
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Evening all
When you are dealing with what has been termed as "the most sophisticated electorate in the world" (?), believe nothing or believe everything as a wise man once told me.
Nominations are not votes - you can nominate Candidate A and vote for Candidate B. If you're clever, you can be courted by Candidates A, B, C and D and vote for Candidate E.
The weight of numbers behind each candidate is a measure of illusion and delusion. Clearly, getting past the first hurdle means the eight are all serious players if not in terms of winning in terms of endorsement. Now, as we all know, even @Leon I suspect, there's no such thing as a free lunch.
If you nominate a candidate and that candidate wins, it's reasonable to suppose said victor will be magnanimous in victory and reward their backers accordingly. Of course, if the candidate isn't successful but pledges support to the eventual winner in good time, there are rewards to be had though the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer should never be forgotten in Cabinet formation.
Those who have been at the top for longest will have had longest to build networks of support within the Party and will be best placed (arguably) to reward their "friends" - this is why the likes of Sunak start with an advantage. It's not just being Chancellor - it's the control of the Treasury team and the money.
Osborne built up a formidable network of loyalists - much good it did him in the end but had events transpired otherwise it would likely have smoothed his eventual succession to David Cameron.
For the lower ranking Ministers, it's that thing you say, that policy you offer, that unexpected offer of supporters which propels you up the rankings and while that may not mean victory today, it likely means a place at the top table and a position of importance in the next contest.
You forgot about Zahawi.
2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
80 Jeremy Hunt
90 Suella Braverman
100 Nadhim Zahawi
210 Dominic Raab
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9AXU2rWH88
The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.
It has been gently but persistently raining here, about five miles north of Cheltenham, for the last hour. This is immensely pleasing for us gardeners, especially as it is so unexpected.
The reason it is unexpected is because it was not forecast, which is immensely pleasing to those of us whose complaints about weather forecasters are regularly dismissed, here and elsewhere.
There's the more coherent notion we can't go on basically functioning without a Government - actually we can and it works rather well.
There is finally the thorny question of the membership vote - will the need to get Government re-started mean the membership vote doesn't happen and the parliamentary Party coalesces (happily or otherwise) round one candidate - that looks improbable now but in 48 hours who knows?
She’d make JRM Chancellor and Nads Home Secretary.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.200835061
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4018824#Comment_4018824
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https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4018784#Comment_4018784
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I can see somebody is very wound up by my posts.
And to that I can say: thank you and I will carry on, wish you the best kind stranger.
Penny is my choice, Kemi second. They would both give me a chance to consider the Tories again. I’m pretty sure I couldn’t vote for the party led by Truss, particularly if she takes the role of continuity Boris. And I’m not a fan of Rishi.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
As @NickPalmer has probably seen, some interesting developments in Danish politics with the founding of the Denmark Democrats three weeks ago. The obvious parallel is with the Sweden Democrats and their Danish counterparts would win 10.8% in a hypothetical Folketing election.
They have 4 MPs with defections from the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) who seem to be imploding after their poor Folketing and local election results and serious questions over their leader, Morten Messerschmidt (I kid you not).
The latest Megafon poll has support for the current four party centre-left Government down from 48% to 46%. After a disastrous spell, Venstre are regaining support and are on 13.1%, just behind the Conservatives on 13.4% It's uncertain whether the Denmark Democrats would support a future centre-right Government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk
Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
And as for Mogg as CoE, my mate joked that if that happened his entire time would be spent reintroducing the groat and the pennyfarthing.
She’s 2005 Cameron, and has Gove standing next to her.
Sidney Powell told the Select Cttee that Trump DID verbally appoint her Special Counsel and order her a security clearance. Cipollone is slippery but all but confirms this account, only noting that they never signed the papers.
https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1546915439460089862
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Are there any hustings before the first ballot, does anyone know?
It allows him to do a chicken run without looking like a chicken run.
He's a pound shop Churchill, Churchill became PM after losing the Premiership.
He hasn't spent his entire life just to be PM for three years.
Teddy Roosevelt stepped down from Presidency (voluntarily and NOT in disgrace) went big game hunting in Africa, toured Europe with mega-publicity there and in US. Then went on to challenge his hand-picked successor for the Republican nomination, and then the election.
TR also used the interval to do writing for fun & profit - something that he (like WSC) was very good at. Unlike BJ IMHO.
EDIT - Plus Boris could depart the House for a (profitable) spell outside, then return via by-election OR general election, pretty much whenever he took the notion. Given ability to cherry-pick seat and quite possibly offer tempting inducements to incumbent Tory MP to step aside?
Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
https://www.british-history.ac.uk/vch/salop/vol11/pp1-19
Looks like we are seeing a disjuncture between pollsters (Opinium/YouGov) and ConHome, the former producing more favourable numbers for Sunak.
Problem for Sunak is the latter is what is driving discussion in Westminster/on BBC etc.
https://twitter.com/DrAlanWager/status/1546832363585507328
As a rule of thumb, I think most European countries have a hard-right vote of about 10%, which shows up clearly in proportional systems. The AfD in Germany gets around that, and if we had PR in Britain I reckon a far right party would get there (as would a far left party). In some countries like France, you get the far right party moderating slightly and picking up a lot of people who wouldn't call themselves racist, but then finding extremists popping up on their flank (Zemmour)..
I can't see any potential for them to advance.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
8 will probably be 5 by tomorrow.
It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
Just as pointing out that the deranged estimates of 2,000 dead at the Amritsar Massacre are out by a factor of four (the real figure was around 480-500) doesn't diminish the impact of what happened.
Using the right figures is important as otherwise people will just ignore your posts as hysterical nonsense.
It does expose a problem - when we have to depend on Leon and his phone calculator to expose how big a problem this might be, something has gone badly wrong.
A simple question: in what towns/cities has this not yet been exposed? And if it really didn't happen in those, why did it happen in Rotherham (etc)?
AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Lay.
If Nadine is right (I know, I know) then Hunt might get through if Rishi/Williamson are instructing supporters to lend votes.
I worry for Kemi in the next round, unless she gets another big figure on board.
Lord Brownlow or Lord Lebedev or Michael Hintze. Someone like that.