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So now it is down to 8 – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Not unless he could convince SCOTUS that he qualifies as "natural born citizen" despite renouncing his citizenship?

    AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
    After a Trump, Trump, Trump Jr, and Trump Jr terms after the abolition of limits, perhaps you'd be in the mood for that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.

    https://www.british-history.ac.uk/vch/salop/vol11/pp1-19
    I'm surprised because whenever I travel through the area I see new housing developments, but appearances can be deceptive. Also, Telford got its own parliamentary constituency for the first time in 1997.
    Also the masses and masses of modern industrial and warehousing units. Seems every roundabout is flanked by them. In the 1990s didn't a number of big Japanese firms setup there?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited July 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
    No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK

    It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
    I'm not doing that Leon, I'm pointing out your figures are wrong.

    Just as pointing out that the deranged estimates of 2,000 dead at the Amritsar Massacre are out by a factor of four (the real figure was around 480-500) doesn't diminish the impact of what happened.

    Using the right figures is important as otherwise people will just ignore your posts as hysterical nonsense.
    I completely agree (which is why I amended my post after you rightly corrected my error)

    I am one of the people that has dismissed this as hysterical nonsense - ie when I saw Sarah Champion, Labour MP for Rotherham, say that maybe 1 million girls had been abused by Muslim Grooming Gangs, I reacted with derision and incredulity. 1 million?? FFS

    So I ignored it

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/child-sex-abuse-gangs-could-5114029


    "Child sex abuse gangs could have assaulted ONE MILLION youngsters in the UK"

    1 million? Get out of here. Absurd

    And yet if little Telford can have 1000 cases, and Rotherham 1800, and Oldham similar and then Derby, and Southampton, and Oxford and Salford and on and on and on.... then one million becomes horribly plausible

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    May be worth assessing what you think you did right, where you may have slipped up, and how you might improve your pitch in near future.

    And keep pitching!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.

    https://www.british-history.ac.uk/vch/salop/vol11/pp1-19
    I'm surprised because whenever I travel through the area I see new housing developments, but appearances can be deceptive. Also, Telford got its own parliamentary constituency for the first time in 1997.
    How can I put this - you may see new housing developments, but a lot of them are not in Telford, they're in the wider borough of Telford and Wrekin. Which has become a distinction without a difference in many ways, but is still a distinction.

    Which does have a fast growing population, it's up about 50% in 20 years, but equally started that time from a base of around 165,000.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Sorry to hear that.

    There will be another opening soon.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,292
    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Also worth pointing out votes are anonymous, whereas endorsements are not.

    It's possible some MPs who originally thought Zahawi or Braverman might be good idea and backed them publicly before things changed, or felt obliged to back them, might not do so in the next round.

    In other words, it's possible they get as few as 16 or 17 votes in the first round.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    He already looks as though he's been sleeping under an ill-trimmed hedge (fund).
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,285

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
    What does he have to gain by having Hunt in the contest (presuming he has no actual chance of reaching the final two)? Trying to get Badenoch or Tugendhat knocked out an early stage?
    I also wonder if Hunt regrets now not taking a job in Boris' cabinet (even though it would have been a demotion). The whole of King over the Water act didn't exactly work out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,292
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
    No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK

    It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
    I feel that was the situation 5-6 years ago but we have now recognised and discussed it.

    Of course, that's very different from institutional and societal change so it could never happen again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,505

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    Boris will find someone to put him up.
    Lord Brownlow or Lord Lebedev or Michael Hintze. Someone like that.
    I reckon The Queen will.

    In exchange for him not nominating a bunch of chancers for honours.

    Palace advisors working to ensure Boris Johnson’s honours list does not ’embarrass’ Queen

    Her Majesty’s private secretary Sir Edward Young is understood to be in regular communication with Cabinet Secretary Simon Case over outgoing PM’s rewards to loyalists, business backers and friends


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/palace-relies-on-top-civil-servant-to-temper-boris-johnsons-resignation-honours-list-1736380

    Apparently The Queen has no veto powers on this.

    For the LOLZ Boris Johnson should nominate Prince Andrew for a hereditary peerage of first creation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,606

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Also worth pointing out votes are anonymous, whereas endorsements are not.

    It's possible some MPs who originally thought Zahawi or Braverman might be good idea and backed them publicly before things changed, or felt obliged to back them, might not do so in the next round.

    In other words, it's possible they get as few as 16 or 17 votes in the first round.
    If an MP thought Zahawi or Braverman were a good idea, do they have the intellectual bus fare to write an X on a ballot paper.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    Boris will find someone to put him up.
    Lord Brownlow or Lord Lebedev or Michael Hintze. Someone like that.
    I reckon The Queen will.

    In exchange for him not nominating a bunch of chancers for honours.

    Palace advisors working to ensure Boris Johnson’s honours list does not ’embarrass’ Queen

    Her Majesty’s private secretary Sir Edward Young is understood to be in regular communication with Cabinet Secretary Simon Case over outgoing PM’s rewards to loyalists, business backers and friends


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/palace-relies-on-top-civil-servant-to-temper-boris-johnsons-resignation-honours-list-1736380

    Apparently The Queen has no veto powers on this.

    For the LOLZ Boris Johnson should nominate Prince Andrew for a hereditary peerage of first creation.
    She's not using Buck House at the moment, is she?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,921
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
    Why would he prop up Hunt at this stage? Puzzling.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    He’ll still have the three months’ notice, will be making £13k a month and have police protection that will ensure he’s never actually homeless.

    He’ll probably squat at Chequers for a month, until he can sort out his arrangements.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,505
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
    What does he have to gain by having Hunt in the contest (presuming he has no actual chance of reaching the final two)? Trying to get Badenoch or Tugendhat knocked out an early stage?
    I also wonder if Hunt regrets now not taking a job in Boris' cabinet (even though it would have been a demotion). The whole of King over the Water act didn't exactly work out.
    It'll be easier for Sunak to offer Hunt a lowly cabinet job or no job if Hunt polls 18 MPs tomorrow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Andrew Mitchell backs Hunt.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    He’ll still have the three months’ notice, will be making £13k a month and have police protection that will ensure he’s never actually homeless.

    He’ll probably squat at Chequers for a month, until he can sort out his arrangements.
    Given rate of inflation and Richy Rishi tax rises, £13k a month ain't much these days ;-)

    More seriously, perhaps it will encourage him to quit as an MP and then he can relocate to the US to earn the big bucks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    Sandpit said:

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Don’t worry too much about it. Have a night off for a few drinks, and get back on the jobhunting tomorrow.
    Sorry to hear that. There is an element of luck in the process, however well you prepare. Hopefully the luck will be on your side next time!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
    No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK

    It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
    I feel that was the situation 5-6 years ago but we have now recognised and discussed it.

    Of course, that's very different from institutional and societal change so it could never happen again.
    The Telford Report says it is still happening, in exactly the same pattern

    I have heard the same, anecdotally: still going on
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    IDS being cagey on Sky News, not backing anyone yet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,921
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    I'm sure I've heard people bleating on here about the courage of the gotch eyed racist in single handedly calling out the Asian grooming gangs? Take your compliments where you can.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,606

    IDS being cagey on Sky News, not backing anyone yet.

    He’s learning. He doesn’t want to land like an albatross on his preferred candidate’s campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    I'm sure I've heard people bleating on here about the courage of the gotch eyed racist in single handedly calling out the Asian grooming gangs? Take your compliments where you can.
    I think that was Tommy Robinson. Unfortunate messenger.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited July 2022
    Tugendhat lengthening.

    Now 26/34

    Top 4 treading water.

    Hunt edging back in, now 55/65
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Also worth pointing out votes are anonymous, whereas endorsements are not.

    It's possible some MPs who originally thought Zahawi or Braverman might be good idea and backed them publicly before things changed, or felt obliged to back them, might not do so in the next round.

    In other words, it's possible they get as few as 16 or 17 votes in the first round.
    Liars poker.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,955
    NEW: A national security risk unseen since the Profumo Affair.

    Who accompanied Boris Johnson to a former KGB agent's villa in Italy after the Skripal poisonings?

    Why didn't the then Foreign Secretary say he met Alexander Lebedev?

    w/ @claudiabromley.

    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/audio/londongrad-the-johnson-affair/?sig=QJV5tdSUHYe8zolNaK0rOGxHsDKAN7kkwQbVzs0hXfk

    Lord Ricketts, the UK's first National Security Advisor and a former Joint Intelligence Committee chair,
    calls the trip “unprecedented”, “shocking”, “extremely risky” and “very dangerous for the minister’s own reputation and an irresponsible thing to do in that climate”.

    Chris Steele, former head of MI6’s Russia desk, says it is “extremely potentially compromising … it needs to be properly investigated by the relevant authorities, which in this case is definitely the security service”.

    Angela Rayner, Labour deputy leader, told us that if Johnson is "found to have breached the national security protocols that are there to keep us all safe, he has no option but to leave his office immediately and face the full consequences of the law. It's an absolute red line."

    On who Johnson went with, I put the rumour that he was accompanied by a specific young woman to Downing Street.

    Guto Harri told me that Johnson denies it and: “If you publish this, then the Prime Minister will sue and you can be the first to contribute to his retirement fund.”


    https://twitter.com/pcaruanagalizia/status/1546878294750072845
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,292
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
    Why would he prop up Hunt at this stage? Puzzling.
    Maybe he's trying to buy his endorsement later?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,802

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Not unless he could convince SCOTUS that he qualifies as "natural born citizen" despite renouncing his citizenship?

    AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
    SCOTUS would only consider such a claim, if he ever won. See Ted Cruz. So there is nothing stopping him standing, assuming he can regain citizenship, which is do-able but unusual and not trivial.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,038
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Honestly, not the dodgiest modelling I've ever come across. Reminds me of Spotlight (the film).

    It does expose a problem - when we have to depend on Leon and his phone calculator to expose how big a problem this might be, something has gone badly wrong.

    A simple question: in what towns/cities has this not yet been exposed? And if it really didn't happen in those, why did it happen in Rotherham (etc)?
    So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.

    As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.

    My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.

    There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    I'm sure I've heard people bleating on here about the courage of the gotch eyed racist in single handedly calling out the Asian grooming gangs? Take your compliments where you can.
    Interesting that your reaction to this story is not to think about the 1000+ victims or the police failings or institutional disasters... no, your first reaction is to ignore all these possibilities and instead call the person talking about it, "Nick Griffin"

    Have you ever considered that you are the baddie?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    I'm sure I've heard people bleating on here about the courage of the gotch eyed racist in single handedly calling out the Asian grooming gangs? Take your compliments where you can.
    I think that was Tommy Robinson. Unfortunate messenger.
    Telford grooming scandal was Robinsons hobby horse for quite a while.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,505
    Currently partaking in a Tory members poll for YouGov, includes only the final eight.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498

    Kemi really has picked the wrong week to run against Net Zero.

    She could simultaneously promise subsidies for dual option heat pumps that can be used for aircon during the summer.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,285

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
    What does he have to gain by having Hunt in the contest (presuming he has no actual chance of reaching the final two)? Trying to get Badenoch or Tugendhat knocked out an early stage?
    I also wonder if Hunt regrets now not taking a job in Boris' cabinet (even though it would have been a demotion). The whole of King over the Water act didn't exactly work out.
    It'll be easier for Sunak to offer Hunt a lowly cabinet job or no job if Hunt polls 18 MPs tomorrow.
    Couldn't he have just offered him a lowly cabinet job or not job at all if Hunt didn't even make the ballot?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Of course, but he made the allegations and everyone ignored him and dismissed him - they should have investigated his allegations, and then called him a racist for making unsubstantiated claims.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610

    Kemi really has picked the wrong week to run against Net Zero.

    Yep.

    What she should be arguing about/making policy on is how we get to zero carbon. Not the target.

    If telling people to rip all their gas boilers out isn't going to work then come up with something else.

    If we put a man on the moon we can do this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Do we think that the Huntsman is being lined up as runner-up by a Sunak stealth putsch? Hunt knows he can’t win but will get a big job as runner-up in a Sunak government. Maybe I’m buying MadNad’s conspiracy theories too easily.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,921
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    I'm sure I've heard people bleating on here about the courage of the gotch eyed racist in single handedly calling out the Asian grooming gangs? Take your compliments where you can.
    Interesting that your reaction to this story is not to think about the 1000+ victims or the police failings or institutional disasters... no, your first reaction is to ignore all these possibilities and instead call the person talking about it, "Nick Griffin"

    Have you ever considered that you are the baddie?
    When people realise that being a racist rsole may inspire a teeny bit of scepticism about their claims of concern for abuse victims, I'll embrace my baddie-hood.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    I'm sure I've heard people bleating on here about the courage of the gotch eyed racist in single handedly calling out the Asian grooming gangs? Take your compliments where you can.
    I think that was Tommy Robinson. Unfortunate messenger.
    Telford grooming scandal was Robinsons hobby horse for quite a while.
    All getting a bit ad hominem here isn't it? I mean, yes, the medium is the message and everything, but the actual established facts are about a trillion times as important as who it was who first pointed them out. To the victims if no one else.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Not unless he could convince SCOTUS that he qualifies as "natural born citizen" despite renouncing his citizenship?

    AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
    After a Trump, Trump, Trump Jr, and Trump Jr terms after the abolition of limits, perhaps you'd be in the mood for that?
    Well, elections ARE about available options NOT perfect scenarios.

    BTW, reason BJ renounced his dual citizenship had WAY less to do with his political career (at time anyway) and MORE to do with desire to avoid US taxes.

    Interesting blurb re: BJ's US citizenship (have zero clue re: source)

    https://www.artiopartners.com/renounce/boris-johnson-renounces-citizenship-tax/

    “It’s an accident of birth that has left me with this thing. I’ve got to find a way of sorting it out.”, Mr. Johnson was quoted in the Sunday Times. This “thing” he refers to is the capital gains tax bill he received from the IRS for the sale of his home in London. Johnson stated that it was outrageous to be charged taxes by the IRS when he hasn’t lived in America since he was 5 years old.

    Many wonder though if giving up his American citizenship is all about the taxes. Some believe it is his future political aspirations where a dual citizenship could be an obstacle. It is known that Johnson has plans in the next general election to run for Parliament. During his appearance in 2012 on “The Late Show with David Letterman”, Boris did admit he was American and was quoted as saying “a fact I’m trying to conceal to the London electorate.”

    When questioned by Letterman about the rumors of Johnson possibly becoming Britain’s next Prime Minister, he laughed and said “I’ve as much chance of being reincarnated as an olive.” During his interview with Letterman in 2006, Johnson did acknowledge to Letterman, “As you’ve already pointed out, I could be President of the United States… technically speaking.” Now that he has renounced his American citizenship though, he is no longer able to run for America’s highest office. . . .

    ADDENDUM - Boris Johnson on Late Show [hosted by David Letterman], June 6, 2012

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgxuylfPkRg
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Not unless he could convince SCOTUS that he qualifies as "natural born citizen" despite renouncing his citizenship?

    AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
    SCOTUS would only consider such a claim, if he ever won. See Ted Cruz. So there is nothing stopping him standing, assuming he can regain citizenship, which is do-able but unusual and not trivial.
    Johnson is far too young to be POTUS in the US's current iteration.

    Come back in 25 years.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324

    Kemi really has picked the wrong week to run against Net Zero.

    I wonder if she's planning to quit sniffing glue?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,053

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    How long will that opportunity last? Not sure what BJ's name ID is like in USA but he is NOT a household word. Unlike Tony Blair back in his day.

    Teddy Roosevelt stepped down from Presidency (voluntarily and NOT in disgrace) went big game hunting in Africa, toured Europe with mega-publicity there and in US. Then went on to challenge his hand-picked successor for the Republican nomination, and then the election.

    TR also used the interval to do writing for fun & profit - something that he (like WSC) was very good at. Unlike BJ IMHO.

    EDIT - Plus Boris could depart the House for a (profitable) spell outside, then return via by-election OR general election, pretty much whenever he took the notion. Given ability to cherry-pick seat and quite possibly offer tempting inducements to incumbent Tory MP to step aside?
    May is getting 6 figures for speech. May. 6 figures. A half dozen of those a year and you already doing nicely…..

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited July 2022

    Do we think that the Huntsman is being lined up as runner-up by a Sunak stealth putsch? Hunt knows he can’t win but will get a big job as runner-up in a Sunak government. Maybe I’m buying MadNad’s conspiracy theories too easily.

    If MPs want to fix it so those are the final two, it's not a conspiracy, it's them doing their job to present to the members the choice they want to be considered.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    algarkirk said:

    NOM 1.73
    Con Maj 3.75
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Lay Lab Maj

    The prospect of a Lab majority (326+ seats) remain tiny. More like 20/1.

    The chance of a Tory majority are more like 6/4.

    Kind of. But Lab Maj definitely not value short of 10/1.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    How long will that opportunity last? Not sure what BJ's name ID is like in USA but he is NOT a household word. Unlike Tony Blair back in his day.

    Teddy Roosevelt stepped down from Presidency (voluntarily and NOT in disgrace) went big game hunting in Africa, toured Europe with mega-publicity there and in US. Then went on to challenge his hand-picked successor for the Republican nomination, and then the election.

    TR also used the interval to do writing for fun & profit - something that he (like WSC) was very good at. Unlike BJ IMHO.

    EDIT - Plus Boris could depart the House for a (profitable) spell outside, then return via by-election OR general election, pretty much whenever he took the notion. Given ability to cherry-pick seat and quite possibly offer tempting inducements to incumbent Tory MP to step aside?
    May is getting 6 figures for speech. May. 6 figures. A half dozen of those a year and you already doing nicely…..

    Personally I think you’re doing nicely on just one of those!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Not unless he could convince SCOTUS that he qualifies as "natural born citizen" despite renouncing his citizenship?

    AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
    After a Trump, Trump, Trump Jr, and Trump Jr terms after the abolition of limits, perhaps you'd be in the mood for that?
    Well, elections ARE about available options NOT perfect scenarios.

    BTW, reason BJ renounced his dual citizenship had WAY less to do with his political career (at time anyway) and MORE to do with desire to avoid US taxes.

    .
    Of course, he wouldn't have left it so late otherwise.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Jonathan said:

    IDS being cagey on Sky News, not backing anyone yet.

    He’s learning. He doesn’t want to land like an albatross on his preferred candidate’s campaign.
    Or he is waiting for the juicy 'return to cabinet' offer.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194

    Kemi really has picked the wrong week to run against Net Zero.

    That's a worry. She's fluent and compelling as a speaker. She has a clear set of views. But what happens when those views collide with reality? Is she the sort of person who tries to change reality rather than her views?

    (With hindsight, one of Gove's problems as EdSec was that he had spent the previous few years working out what he wanted to do. Which was fine, he picked up a lot of things that were wrong. But he went in with a fully worked-out blueprint that fell apart on contact with actual teachers and schools. See the Duke of Wellington line about making campaigns out of rope, not iron.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,763
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: A national security risk unseen since the Profumo Affair.

    Who accompanied Boris Johnson to a former KGB agent's villa in Italy after the Skripal poisonings?

    Why didn't the then Foreign Secretary say he met Alexander Lebedev?

    w/ @claudiabromley.

    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/audio/londongrad-the-johnson-affair/?sig=QJV5tdSUHYe8zolNaK0rOGxHsDKAN7kkwQbVzs0hXfk

    Lord Ricketts, the UK's first National Security Advisor and a former Joint Intelligence Committee chair,
    calls the trip “unprecedented”, “shocking”, “extremely risky” and “very dangerous for the minister’s own reputation and an irresponsible thing to do in that climate”.

    Chris Steele, former head of MI6’s Russia desk, says it is “extremely potentially compromising … it needs to be properly investigated by the relevant authorities, which in this case is definitely the security service”.

    Angela Rayner, Labour deputy leader, told us that if Johnson is "found to have breached the national security protocols that are there to keep us all safe, he has no option but to leave his office immediately and face the full consequences of the law. It's an absolute red line."

    On who Johnson went with, I put the rumour that he was accompanied by a specific young woman to Downing Street.

    Guto Harri told me that Johnson denies it and: “If you publish this, then the Prime Minister will sue and you can be the first to contribute to his retirement fund.”


    https://twitter.com/pcaruanagalizia/status/1546878294750072845

    The last two lines make no sense. That aside, it is good someone is running with this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,327

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    Boris will find someone to put him up.
    Lord Brownlow or Lord Lebedev or Michael Hintze. Someone like that.
    I reckon The Queen will.

    In exchange for him not nominating a bunch of chancers for honours.

    Palace advisors working to ensure Boris Johnson’s honours list does not ’embarrass’ Queen

    Her Majesty’s private secretary Sir Edward Young is understood to be in regular communication with Cabinet Secretary Simon Case over outgoing PM’s rewards to loyalists, business backers and friends


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/palace-relies-on-top-civil-servant-to-temper-boris-johnsons-resignation-honours-list-1736380

    Apparently The Queen has no veto powers on this.

    For the LOLZ Boris Johnson should nominate Prince Andrew for a hereditary peerage of first creation.
    Can Bozza recommend...Bozza?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: A national security risk unseen since the Profumo Affair.

    Who accompanied Boris Johnson to a former KGB agent's villa in Italy after the Skripal poisonings?

    Why didn't the then Foreign Secretary say he met Alexander Lebedev?

    w/ @claudiabromley.

    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/audio/londongrad-the-johnson-affair/?sig=QJV5tdSUHYe8zolNaK0rOGxHsDKAN7kkwQbVzs0hXfk

    Lord Ricketts, the UK's first National Security Advisor and a former Joint Intelligence Committee chair,
    calls the trip “unprecedented”, “shocking”, “extremely risky” and “very dangerous for the minister’s own reputation and an irresponsible thing to do in that climate”.

    Chris Steele, former head of MI6’s Russia desk, says it is “extremely potentially compromising … it needs to be properly investigated by the relevant authorities, which in this case is definitely the security service”.

    Angela Rayner, Labour deputy leader, told us that if Johnson is "found to have breached the national security protocols that are there to keep us all safe, he has no option but to leave his office immediately and face the full consequences of the law. It's an absolute red line."

    On who Johnson went with, I put the rumour that he was accompanied by a specific young woman to Downing Street.

    Guto Harri told me that Johnson denies it and: “If you publish this, then the Prime Minister will sue and you can be the first to contribute to his retirement fund.”


    https://twitter.com/pcaruanagalizia/status/1546878294750072845

    You have just published it, Greedy Guto will be calling your lawyers next.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Also he specialises in disrupting trials, rather than exposing people who haven't yet been caught.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Do we think that the Huntsman is being lined up as runner-up by a Sunak stealth putsch? Hunt knows he can’t win but will get a big job as runner-up in a Sunak government. Maybe I’m buying MadNad’s conspiracy theories too easily.

    I don’t believe Sunak will have the votes to not only get through to the second round but also choose Hunt as the opponent, based purely on the fact that it doesn’t seem Hunts campaign is setting the world on fire, so it would require a big contingent (70 MPs?) potentially to launch him into second place.

    There’s plenty of MPs out there who haven’t endorsed Rishi. A good number of those look transfer-friendly to Truss IMHO, unless Penny or Kemi can peel some of them off.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,571

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    It's stuff like this that turns people into Nick Griffins. Abuse, and cover up by the establishment.

    BBC News - Telford child sex abuse went on for generations, inquiry finds
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-61983584

    Would you like more evidence? I'm sure Leon and others will oblige.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
    You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Kemi really has picked the wrong week to run against Net Zero.

    Yep.

    What she should be arguing about/making policy on is how we get to zero carbon. Not the target.

    If telling people to rip all their gas boilers out isn't going to work then come up with something else.

    If we put a man on the moon we can do this.
    We didn't NATO did. Also, men are quite small and light. What you should be saying is, We can't deliver the Elizabeth Line except 4 years late and 4bn over budget, and we seriously think we can engineer the entire fucking world out of a problem?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,505

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    Boris will find someone to put him up.
    Lord Brownlow or Lord Lebedev or Michael Hintze. Someone like that.
    I reckon The Queen will.

    In exchange for him not nominating a bunch of chancers for honours.

    Palace advisors working to ensure Boris Johnson’s honours list does not ’embarrass’ Queen

    Her Majesty’s private secretary Sir Edward Young is understood to be in regular communication with Cabinet Secretary Simon Case over outgoing PM’s rewards to loyalists, business backers and friends


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/palace-relies-on-top-civil-servant-to-temper-boris-johnsons-resignation-honours-list-1736380

    Apparently The Queen has no veto powers on this.

    For the LOLZ Boris Johnson should nominate Prince Andrew for a hereditary peerage of first creation.
    Can Bozza recommend...Bozza?
    I think it is a bit like can Trump pardon Trump?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Also he specialises in disrupting trials, rather than exposing people who haven't yet been caught.
    I thought that was Tommy Robinson.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,496
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    And then back in the UK , drafted in to dig the Tories out of the opposition Sunaks disastrous administration led them to.
    Will he be flying back on the same plane as David Miliband?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    kle4 said:

    This would be pretty funny.

    Looks like we are seeing a disjuncture between pollsters (Opinium/YouGov) and ConHome, the former producing more favourable numbers for Sunak.

    Problem for Sunak is the latter is what is driving discussion in Westminster/on BBC etc.


    https://twitter.com/DrAlanWager/status/1546832363585507328

    Even Zahawi beats him!!

    Only 2 remaining candidates don't beat him, and one of those is allegedly only still in on borrowed Sunak votes. The man is toxic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
    You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
    Are you suggesting he can't know you to a T?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: A national security risk unseen since the Profumo Affair.

    Who accompanied Boris Johnson to a former KGB agent's villa in Italy after the Skripal poisonings?

    Why didn't the then Foreign Secretary say he met Alexander Lebedev?

    w/ @claudiabromley.

    https://www.tortoisemedia.com/audio/londongrad-the-johnson-affair/?sig=QJV5tdSUHYe8zolNaK0rOGxHsDKAN7kkwQbVzs0hXfk

    Lord Ricketts, the UK's first National Security Advisor and a former Joint Intelligence Committee chair,
    calls the trip “unprecedented”, “shocking”, “extremely risky” and “very dangerous for the minister’s own reputation and an irresponsible thing to do in that climate”.

    Chris Steele, former head of MI6’s Russia desk, says it is “extremely potentially compromising … it needs to be properly investigated by the relevant authorities, which in this case is definitely the security service”.

    Angela Rayner, Labour deputy leader, told us that if Johnson is "found to have breached the national security protocols that are there to keep us all safe, he has no option but to leave his office immediately and face the full consequences of the law. It's an absolute red line."

    On who Johnson went with, I put the rumour that he was accompanied by a specific young woman to Downing Street.

    Guto Harri told me that Johnson denies it and: “If you publish this, then the Prime Minister will sue and you can be the first to contribute to his retirement fund.”


    https://twitter.com/pcaruanagalizia/status/1546878294750072845

    You have just published it, Greedy Guto will be calling your lawyers next.
    Wanna bet?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    ydoethur said:

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Sorry to hear this.

    If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
    Better things on the way for you both!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,921
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    It's stuff like this that turns people into Nick Griffins. Abuse, and cover up by the establishment.

    BBC News - Telford child sex abuse went on for generations, inquiry finds
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-61983584

    Would you like more evidence? I'm sure Leon and others will oblige.


    Lovely that 'Leon' has a stout defender
    Stick to trying to convince people of your Scottishness.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572

    algarkirk said:

    NOM 1.73
    Con Maj 3.75
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Lay Lab Maj

    The prospect of a Lab majority (326+ seats) remain tiny. More like 20/1.

    The chance of a Tory majority are more like 6/4.

    Kind of. But Lab Maj definitely not value short of 10/1.
    You do need to factor in the possibility that the Tories will be headed by another pisspoor leader by then.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,606
    Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    image

    @JimmySecUK
    A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.

    Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1546926584904425472
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,496

    Do we think that the Huntsman is being lined up as runner-up by a Sunak stealth putsch? Hunt knows he can’t win but will get a big job as runner-up in a Sunak government. Maybe I’m buying MadNad’s conspiracy theories too easily.

    I don't think there are enough centrist MPs to get both Hunt and Sunak as the last two.
    I suspect it was simply Javid's supporters switching that put Hunt over the line.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Also he specialises in disrupting trials, rather than exposing people who haven't yet been caught.
    I thought that was Tommy Robinson.
    Ah, yes. Mixing up my right wing nutters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324

    ydoethur said:

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Sorry to hear this.

    If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
    Better things on the way for you both!
    Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.

    Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,285
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    NOM 1.73
    Con Maj 3.75
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Lay Lab Maj

    The prospect of a Lab majority (326+ seats) remain tiny. More like 20/1.

    The chance of a Tory majority are more like 6/4.

    Kind of. But Lab Maj definitely not value short of 10/1.
    You do need to factor in the possibility that the Tories will be headed by another pisspoor leader by then.
    Labour majority is very much game on if Cosplay Thatcher becomes PM.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    And there it is. Call me Nick Griffin. The usual
    The issue is clear - the deliberate inaction of police forces resulted in these crimes being committed with impunity. Those forces need gutting, starting with the very rotten apples at the top. What I am less clear on is how that is to happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572

    image

    @JimmySecUK
    A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.

    Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1546926584904425472

    His 3 years in Russia have never been properly explained IMO.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,053

    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
    What does he have to gain by having Hunt in the contest (presuming he has no actual chance of reaching the final two)? Trying to get Badenoch or Tugendhat knocked out an early stage?
    I also wonder if Hunt regrets now not taking a job in Boris' cabinet (even though it would have been a demotion). The whole of King over the Water act didn't exactly work out.
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Honestly, not the dodgiest modelling I've ever come across. Reminds me of Spotlight (the film).

    It does expose a problem - when we have to depend on Leon and his phone calculator to expose how big a problem this might be, something has gone badly wrong.

    A simple question: in what towns/cities has this not yet been exposed? And if it really didn't happen in those, why did it happen in Rotherham (etc)?
    So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.

    As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.

    My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.

    There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.
    When the police and social services “withdrew” from some traveller communities in the 90s, the result was not an improvement in the conditions of many travellers.

    Instead, the worst scumbags in their communities took advantage of the situation to brutalise and terrorise their own kind.

    But, hey, some people (not travellers) felt better about themselves. So all good there.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324
    edited July 2022
    Farooq said:

    image

    @JimmySecUK
    A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.

    Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1546926584904425472

    Cummings has always been dodgy as fuck. The Conservative Seamus Milne.
    I think he needs another trip to Barnard Castle. He's obviously not seeing things clearly.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,310
    edited July 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Honestly, not the dodgiest modelling I've ever come across. Reminds me of Spotlight (the film).

    It does expose a problem - when we have to depend on Leon and his phone calculator to expose how big a problem this might be, something has gone badly wrong.

    A simple question: in what towns/cities has this not yet been exposed? And if it really didn't happen in those, why did it happen in Rotherham (etc)?
    So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.

    As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.

    My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.

    There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.
    The problem is essentially one of poverty, which is widespread. I have no doubt Leon's figures are reasonably accurate.

    The problem is often compounded by exceptionally poor policing and misconceptions about racial 'sensitivities'. These issues are of course much more likely to be present in the poorest areas.

    Any attempt at dealing with the problem which does not begin by addressing poverty is superficial and therefore likely to fail.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,519
    rcs1000 said:



    So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.

    As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.

    My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.

    There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.

    Sounds right. I was in Nottingham for 13 years - there's a very large Muslim population, but I never heard of any organised rape (and the whole place was a good example of intercommunal rubbing along - even in the Indo-Pakistan wars people agreed not to transfer them locally). Knfie crime, drugs, yes, though not a Muslim issue particularly. Rape gangs? No.

    The reality seems to have been that it was a nasty issue in many post-industrial depressed Northern towns (not in, for instance, Liverpool, Sheffield or Manchester). It does need a proper analysis, but not facile arithmetic extrapolation across everywhere.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Sorry to hear this.

    If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
    Better things on the way for you both!
    Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.

    Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
    So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?

    I understand why people vote with their feet though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Both Rishi and Penny have hit the 30 declared supporter threshold for the next ballot. None of the others have at this stage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.

    Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,285
    Jonathan said:

    Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.

    I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited July 2022

    image

    @JimmySecUK
    A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.

    Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1546926584904425472

    That's quite a telling piece of nonsense. Not because he is advocating a 'realistic' scenario wherein Ukraine may not be able to regain all its lost territory. People can believe that it might well come to that, regrettably.

    It's because of the talk of NATO membership being the cause of this, and the 'humiliation' of Russia. Those are just Russian talking points.

    Trying to disguise what he says as 'unpleasant fact' doesn't hide the use of those talking points, that he has a motivation to defend. It's still nothing more than saying there is a Russian sphere where states are not allowed to be independent if they want and Russian aggression is justified because they were humiliated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    image

    @JimmySecUK
    A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.

    Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1546926584904425472

    Cummings has always been dodgy as fuck. The Conservative Seamus Milne.
    I think he needs another trip to Barnard Castle. He's obviously not seeing things clearly.
    He misses the fundamental point that Putin's view of what is his dream of Greater Russia is that Ukr is totally taken over and as long as Putin is in office that will not change even if 50% of the male youth of Russia are slaughtered.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Of course, but he made the allegations and everyone ignored him and dismissed him - they should have investigated his allegations, and then called him a racist for making unsubstantiated claims.
    Nick Griffin (a racist twat, for the purposes of clarity) wasn't just ignored, he was prosecuted for bringing up grooming gangs


    "Rodney Jameson QC, prosecuting, told the jury that Mr Griffin made allegations of paedophile drug rapes by Asian Muslims in Keighley during his speech."

    As it turns out, that was all true

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/speeches-by-bnp-leader-led-to-race-hate-charges-1.1003051
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,571

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    It's stuff like this that turns people into Nick Griffins. Abuse, and cover up by the establishment.

    BBC News - Telford child sex abuse went on for generations, inquiry finds
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-61983584

    Would you like more evidence? I'm sure Leon and others will oblige.


    Lovely that 'Leon' has a stout defender
    Stick to trying to convince people of your Scottishness.
    BBC News - Rotherham abuse scandal: How we got here
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-61868863
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,953
    Farooq said:

    image

    @JimmySecUK
    A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.

    Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.


    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1546926584904425472

    Cummings has always been dodgy as fuck. The Conservative Seamus Milne.
    The candidates need to be made to guarantee he’ll be allowed nowhere near the government again.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: A national security risk unseen since the Profumo Affair.


    REDACTED”


    https://twitter.com/pcaruanagalizia/status/1546878294750072845

    You have just published it, Greedy Guto will be calling your lawyers next.
    You have just quoted it. Be very afraid.

    Looking potentially electrifying.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
    You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
    I know what you are and who you are. You are a racist who thinks giving money to 16 year old Thai girls is doing them a favour as you have written in detail on here mor than once. When someone of a different ethnicity does the same thing you find it disgusting as everyone who has read your posts on here this evening can attest.

    I suggest you get back to talking about your travels there's less opportunity for hypocrisy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Sorry to hear this.

    If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
    Better things on the way for you both!
    Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.

    Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
    So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?

    I understand why people vote with their feet though.
    No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?

    So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,053
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
    I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
    I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
    Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.

    Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
    He was (is) a racist.

    He also happened to be right on this one issue.

    But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
    Also he specialises in disrupting trials, rather than exposing people who haven't yet been caught.
    I thought that was Tommy Robinson.
    All these unhinged fascist nutters look the same to me….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,572

    rcs1000 said:



    So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.

    As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.

    My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.

    There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.

    Sounds right. I was in Nottingham for 13 years - there's a very large Muslim population, but I never heard of any organised rape (and the whole place was a good example of intercommunal rubbing along - even in the Indo-Pakistan wars people agreed not to transfer them locally). Knfie crime, drugs, yes, though not a Muslim issue particularly. Rape gangs? No.

    The reality seems to have been that it was a nasty issue in many post-industrial depressed Northern towns (not in, for instance, Liverpool, Sheffield or Manchester). It does need a proper analysis, but not facile arithmetic extrapolation across everywhere.
    There were similar cases in Oxford, Wycombe and Peterborough so not completely a Northern issue.

    Sex cases are very difficult to prosecute, particularly when a lot of the victims are young and often don't see themselves as victims.

    Bad policing is certainly part of the problem, but also a failure of social services, and of the families and communities of these towns.
This discussion has been closed.