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Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157
    Sandpit said:

    Applicant said:

    jonny83 said:

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
    This stuff should be trivial for any serious candidate to deal with. When the field is narrowed then they can get on to the difficult stuff.

    It's a bit like the first five questions on WWTBAM?
    I really want to hear Penny’s answer to the “Women” question. The other four main contenders are all okay on culture stuff.
    Surely the primary issue in the world today is what on earth to do with a trans slave owning statue who claimed to be a woman?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

    I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200


    She has more ministerial experience than either Cameron or Blair had when they became PM. She is slightly younger than Cameron was and a bit younger than Blair.

    Is it because she’s a woman she’s “inexperienced”, or because she isn’t Public School / Oxford educated?

    That's extremely misleading. Cameron didn't have ministerial experience, of course, but he had (with Osborne) oodles of experience at the centre of events as a SPAD, and he had five years of LOTO experience before becoming PM. He'd also surrounded himself with an excellent team which spent a lot of effort learning about how to do government. He was extremely well prepared for office, as was Blair, who also spent his time as a shadow minister and then LOTO very wisely.

    That's completely different from being catapulted into the PM position from a minor role whilst the party is in government.
    A lot would depend on her team and her attitude to it. A return to cabinet government is long overdue in my opinion. Decline then almost dead by end of New Labour. The a few slight resuscitations and relapses with no vital signs at a all under Johnson.
    Very hard to build up an effective team when three quarters of those in it think they should be leader instead of you, and the other quarter think someone else should be.
    True bit isn't that true of all governments at all times?
    Yes, but it is much reduced if the leader has a serious track record, rather than being a Kemi-come-lately.
    So you want a leader with the experience of managing a major department in the stellar Johnson administration. “Time for a change” is out then, more “Steady as she goes” and “Building on Success” (sic)?


    Yeah, well, if the party had listened to me they wouldn't be starting from here. There are no good options.
    So which are the least worst ones?

    I see Truss as continuity Johnson and because of her Remain apostasy now even more Brexiteer in penance - a disaster in pursuit of headlines

    Sunak is a smooth operator but I’m yet to be convinced there’s much of substance there - we need ideas, not slogans. He’s also going to spend time rubbishing the record of the last Chancellor but one, which could be awkward.

    I don’t know much about either Mordaunt or Badenoch - but Mordaunt appears to have been imbibing the Stonewall kool-aid, however much she tries to row back from it now. The issue is not the policy per-se - which reasonable people can disagree over, but the apparently unthinking adoption if it and mindless repetition of meaningless slogans.

    I thought Badenoch’s speech impressive and if followed through both a break from the past and a good start. She appears to have more substance than most of them.
    It's an abysmal field, but I would put the order from least bad (I hate the expression 'least worst'!) to worst as:

    Hunt
    Javid
    Sunak
    Tugendhat
    Mordaunt
    Badenoch*
    Zahawi
    Truss
    Braverman

    * I think she has potential but it's too soon
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    The SNP have put a lot of effort into rewriting history to suggest Brexit is the only reason they're agitating for another referendum, but they were always intent on finding an excuse to have another go. E.g, this 👇 is from a Nov 2014 FT article: https://ft.com/content/45fab178-78a5-11e4-b518-00144feabdc0

    https://twitter.com/JohnFerry18/status/1546617792258084869
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    Question: How many eligible Tory MPs are there for Leadership Top Two "primary"?

    Guido currently says 181 declared MPs = 51% but does NOT give actual # of eligibles. And IF the number is somewhere on the wiki blurb they've done damn good job hiding it.

    My own thought is, a kindergarten class would have a bette/smarter/certainly clearer setup for electing Rug Rat of the Month, that this crowd has for selecting the Queen's next First Lord of the Treasury.

    Or rather, the Top Two for CUP members to ponder.

    BTW, just how many signed-up, paid-up (and possibly fucked-up) members ARE there out there? Does anyone actually know. Not just on PB, but in Tory HQ?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    If anyone is watching this space telescope broadcast, I’m amazed at the technology we possess to look so far into our universe and equally amazed that given the technology we possess NASA don’t seem to be able to successfully co-ordinate a live television broadcast…
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,800
    Debates are where Badenoch can reshape the race. She is a better speaker that most of the others. She sounds human and fresh.

    She will stand out
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,221
    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,942

    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I have kept saying to you that you shouldn't be so hard on yourself, Leon.
    No True Minority would be a Tory, therefore all the candidates are white men.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
    The Winner Takes it All in both cases.
    But eek will miss the Arrival of an As Good as New leader for this part of the Crazy World, overcoming Con voter Disillusion and selling a Dream World, claiming I Have a Dream, while the selectorate drools I Still Have Faith in You and I've Been Waiting for You and waits for the Merry Go Round to stop, No Doubt About It. One Man, One Woman in the final ballot? The process will seem So Long now The King Has Lost His Crown and at the next election the new leader will likely say Why Did It Have to Be Me? And yet, eek will be in Another Town, Another Train.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
    Has Ruth Davidson come out for any of the candidates? She might have some sway
    Not that I am aware of, even after a rummage to check.

    Too centrist, and too critical of Mr J and of the Cabinet for not sorting out the chaos, I think.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368
    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Its a further indication that about 3 to 4% is the immediate resigbation/chaos 'hit' that a new leader needs to reverse and go past. There is not (yet) evidence of further slippage
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    Kemi now 2 away from the threshold on declarations.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641

    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I have kept saying to you that you shouldn't be so hard on yourself, Leon.
    No True Minority would be a Tory, therefore all the candidates are white men.
    On the contrary, I think Tories will increasingly be in a minority.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,942

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    It’s not like anyone on public sector payroll can’t hear these threats to their job, and voters these threats to their services - yet so many posters on PB convinced Tories to get a poll bounce from this extensive media coverage.

    Even cuts to fuel duty benefits richer than poorer people, let alone Javid’s promise to cut NHS expenditure to pay for income tax cuts.
    I think you've got this right. They're making themselves look extremely unattractive to everyone except themselves
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    From Unherd:

    The formerly normal aspiration to settle and start a family is out of reach for swathes of young people. A fundamental compact between conservative principles, and the party that is supposed to represent them, has been broken.

    Britain tends to think of itself as an equal partner to countries such as France, the Netherlands and Germany in terms of incomes and living standards. This is a collective fantasy, which hasn’t been true for well over a decade. The reality shouldn’t be shocking, yet it remains so: Britain’s incomes and living standards have fallen far behind what were its peer nations only 15 years ago. “Across European countries, only households in Greece and Cyprus saw a worse performance between 2007 and 2018 than the UK,” found the Resolution Foundation.

    Because the reality is that Britain’s national religion is no longer Anglican Christianity. It isn’t even the NHS. It is Pensionerism. Britain is a care home with a navy.

    Yet all attempts to reform this growth-killing inequity end in failure, such is the strength of the homeowner-pensioner lobby.

    Without Brexit to focus on, the Government has lost its sense of purpose. The next leader must be a strategist, cerebral, and yet still a salesman. Someone who recognises that there’s more to winning than winning itself, and declinist managerialism — that a far greater prize is changing peoples’ lives and your country, for the better.

    There’s a similar article in the FT: the new decline of Britain

    The graphs are quite shocking in how UK median income is falling behind, even as we do OK-ish on GDP per capita (suggesting rising inequality)

    Moreover, the turning point in all the graphs is the Great Financial Crisis, not Brexit. Up to 2008 the UK was steaming ahead and even overtaking all west European peers, in 2008 we stumbled and fell, and have never recovered

    Something happened in 2008. The easy answer is we borrowed too much and when credit was squeezed, ouch. But that is true of many countries. What was particular to Britain that changed in 2008?
    We didn't have a proper crash in house prices but instead Brown/Darling and then Cameron/Osborne propped up the market with ever more schemes to increase lending.
    It's more that our financial services industry was proportionately far bigger than anyone else's and produced a much greater proportion of government funds by way of tax. We lost huge numbers of really well paid jobs and we have not replaced them which has driven median income down in a somewhat exaggerated fashion. Those who have remained in work have done ok but the loss of the cream at the top has driven down the averages.
    It is also, possibly, a wider secular trend in the West that is slowly spreading

    The rot started in the USA where median incomes have been treading water for ages - hence Trump. Then Britain fell into the trap. Hence Brexit. France looks like it is following, as income stagnates…

    And so on
    It’s the middle classes being hollowed out across the West, as large industry and manufacturing industries have largely moved to Asia, replaced by low-income warehouse and driving work.
    What I find fascinating is the reaction of a range of people to the idea of having industries based in the UK.

    A considerable chunk of the progressive types have absorbed the idea that you can't compete on price with "PhDs for $1 a week in China". Despite the fact that there is a small thing called productivity to consider. And you can get someone with a PhD to work for you in China for a dollar a week, either.
    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
    But it's the absorption of the idea - to a ludicrous excess - by the progressive end of the spectrum that is fascinating.

    The productivity numbers make it quite clear. There isn't much of a gap.

    Further the productivity levels of a country are very closely related to the infrastructure - physical, social and legal - of that country. Healthcare, roads and sewers increase national productivity.

    From that you can actually build a business case that closes for a level of state spending on the above.

    Rather than "All the jobs will go to China, must crucify some billionaire to get enough money to kind of run the NHS".

    AKA Affordable Social Democracy.
    The need for better infrastructure is why many of us want HS2E and NPR built because they are essential infrastructure projects for future growth.

    But because the Treasury's investment models are broken the work can't be justified....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I had this at the weekend from a labour supporter who seemed disgusted that the Tories might have as many a seven minority ethnic people as potential leader. They really do think they have a right to all minority votes.
    There have already been a lot of people flummoxed by Kemi in her Equalities Minister role. Seeing an intelligent and articulate black woman as PM, will turn the world view of a lot of people upside-down.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651

    CoL, Ukraine.

    No let’s talk about statues. Out of touch.

    Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,419

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    So SNP claims of “TORY CUTS!!!” are lies then?

    The have no mandate in Scotland for that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,221

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
    It did seem a rather last-minute glory grab.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    Many a bigot is quite willing to vote for candidate of race, creed, ethnicity, etc. that they are bigoted toward/about/against.

    SO willingness to vote for particular candidate is NOT proof positive that the are NOT a bigot. Instead proof that - from their perspective - they are prepared to cast an intelligent as opposed to knee-jerk vote.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    edited July 12
    There was a clip of Badenoch's launch at lunchtime on WATO; at the beginning when she appeared there was screaming, Bay City Rollers, wet panties type of screaming. Strikes me something similar is going on on PB.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

    I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
    He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651

    Debates are where Badenoch can reshape the race. She is a better speaker that most of the others. She sounds human and fresh.

    She will stand out

    I am sure she will. And she is good, but she will also stand out as being very inexperienced.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
    Source?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
    The Winner Takes it All in both cases.
    more like "gimme, gimme, gimme..."
  • CoL, Ukraine.

    No let’s talk about statues. Out of touch.

    Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
    Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    4. Thanks to No.10 his negatives are out there.
    5. Has had a serious job at the top of government for a long time.
    6. And related. Your average punter knows who he is. (Although that may not be in his favour).
    7. A lot of people will fondly remember him for paying them to do nothing at home for a few months back in 2020.
    Gosh that was generous. I hadn't realised he did it out of his own generosity. Here was me thinking it was taxpayers cash, and all along it was Sunak's. What a guy!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    Roger said:

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    It’s not like anyone on public sector payroll can’t hear these threats to their job, and voters these threats to their services - yet so many posters on PB convinced Tories to get a poll bounce from this extensive media coverage.

    Even cuts to fuel duty benefits richer than poorer people, let alone Javid’s promise to cut NHS expenditure to pay for income tax cuts.
    I think you've got this right. They're making themselves look extremely unattractive to everyone except themselves
    Thank you Roger. 🙂
  • Any lefties that do raise statues are as moronic as the Tories who do.

    Nobody. Cares.

    Labour should steer well clear
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,813

    CoL, Ukraine.

    No let’s talk about statues. Out of touch.

    Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
    Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
    That just shows how Starmer has turned Labour into a party of the right. ;)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

    I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
    He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
    Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich

    For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044


    She has more ministerial experience than either Cameron or Blair had when they became PM. She is slightly younger than Cameron was and a bit younger than Blair.

    Is it because she’s a woman she’s “inexperienced”, or because she isn’t Public School / Oxford educated?

    That's extremely misleading. Cameron didn't have ministerial experience, of course, but he had (with Osborne) oodles of experience at the centre of events as a SPAD, and he had five years of LOTO experience before becoming PM. He'd also surrounded himself with an excellent team which spent a lot of effort learning about how to do government. He was extremely well prepared for office, as was Blair, who also spent his time as a shadow minister and then LOTO very wisely.

    That's completely different from being catapulted into the PM position from a minor role whilst the party is in government.
    A lot would depend on her team and her attitude to it. A return to cabinet government is long overdue in my opinion. Decline then almost dead by end of New Labour. The a few slight resuscitations and relapses with no vital signs at a all under Johnson.
    Very hard to build up an effective team when three quarters of those in it think they should be leader instead of you, and the other quarter think someone else should be.
    True bit isn't that true of all governments at all times?
    Yes, but it is much reduced if the leader has a serious track record, rather than being a Kemi-come-lately.
    So you want a leader with the experience of managing a major department in the stellar Johnson administration. “Time for a change” is out then, more “Steady as she goes” and “Building on Success” (sic)?


    Yeah, well, if the party had listened to me they wouldn't be starting from here. There are no good options.
    So which are the least worst ones?

    I see Truss as continuity Johnson and because of her Remain apostasy now even more Brexiteer in penance - a disaster in pursuit of headlines

    Sunak is a smooth operator but I’m yet to be convinced there’s much of substance there - we need ideas, not slogans. He’s also going to spend time rubbishing the record of the last Chancellor but one, which could be awkward.

    I don’t know much about either Mordaunt or Badenoch - but Mordaunt appears to have been imbibing the Stonewall kool-aid, however much she tries to row back from it now. The issue is not the policy per-se - which reasonable people can disagree over, but the apparently unthinking adoption if it and mindless repetition of meaningless slogans.

    I thought Badenoch’s speech impressive and if followed through both a break from the past and a good start. She appears to have more substance than most of them.
    It's an abysmal field, but I would put the order from least bad (I hate the expression 'least worst'!) to worst as:

    Hunt
    Javid
    Sunak
    Tugendhat
    Mordaunt
    Badenoch*
    Zahawi
    Truss
    Braverman

    * I think she has potential but it's too soon
    Respectable list, although Hunt’s fox hunting and McVeigh comments have given me pause for thought and Javid’s financial history will provide Labour an arsenal of ammunition. And, the first two may not even make it on to the ballot,

    The third - unless he has hidden depths not yet revealed will probably lose to Labour (see red wall polling)

    Which means four and five will be closing on their sixties after a two term Labour government….

    But by then Badenoch will be in her fifties, so presumably experienced enough….
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    Based on declared support, the candidates who still haven’t reached 20 and the numbers they need:

    Badenoch - 2
    Zahawi - 6
    Hunt - 6
    Javid - 8
    Braverman- 8
    Chishti - 20

    Reduce by 1 if they’re allowed to nominate themselves (not sure if that’s the case or not!)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,800
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
    Plus the media will focus on the result of the first leadership ballot and won't pay much attention to anti Boris ranting in Westminster.

    The world has moved on from Boris.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,221

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
    Source?
    I don't have a source for that claim, but it makes sense: Webb is a multinational collaboration (albeit mostly US), and Biden's release of an image early last night seems a very last-minute decision. The other partners may not have been pleased at the politicking if they were not part of the decision to release early.

    That lest picture of the five galaxies is stunning.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    edited July 12

    CoL, Ukraine.

    No let’s talk about statues. Out of touch.

    Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
    Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
    Last time I heard about it, it was generally left leaning (mainly middle class white people) demanding Cecil Rhodes statue be removed. They seemed quite interested in statues. Then there was that one in Bristol. I guess those were Tories that threw that one (of some slave trader everyone had forgotten about) in the harbour?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,221
    edited July 12
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

    I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
    He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
    Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich

    For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
    What happens if he's only ever driven diesels? ;)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,617
    edited July 12
    Penny just got Bob Stewart. Penny still 5 ahead of Truss.

    It does look as if Truss will get the right wing but Penny is holding firm in the betting. Feels like she needs some high profile endorsements - maybe she can get Javid as he seems to have fallen out with Sunak.

    She is going to need the vast majority of Tugendhat, Hunt and Javid supporters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,942

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
    Source?
    I know a couple of people at ESA. The Biden thing jumped the gun on planned presentation that was going to be NASA lead, with acknowledgement of contributions. It's happened before - US politicians assume that everything NASA is involved with is 100% NASA - but it still grates on some people.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
    The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.

    It is ghastly.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 630
    If you are going to compare median family incomes in the US over time, you should recognize that family structures have changed in the US. Bluntly, there are far more families that are headed by a single parent, usually a woman, that there were decades ago.

    Here are some numbers: "Compared to several decades ago, children under 18 are more than twice as likely to live with a single parent (either mother or father). In 1968, only 12% of children lived with a single parent, most often their mother. Single-father households were extremely uncommon, with just 1% of kids living with a single father in 1968. By 2020, 25% of kids lived in single-parent households, and the share of kids who lived with a single father quadrupled to more than 4%. Additionally, the proportion of children under 18 who live with other adults (relatives or non-relatives) has become more common.

    Despite the rise in popularity of non-traditional living arrangements, they tend to offer less financial stability than dual-parent family structures. The median income of single-parent households is less than half of dual-parent households — $36,000 compared to $99,000."
    source: https://www.newspressnow.com/news/local_news/as-single-parent-homes-grow-income-disparity-continues-to-lag/article_9240c7a4-b29e-11eb-a29c-0b380d3e57ef.html

    (Daniel Patrick Moynihan got in political trouble for pointing out the effects of single parent families in 1965, and few politicians have wanted to souch the subject, since: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Negro_Family:_The_Case_For_National_Action )

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He would almost certainly lose to Labour. I think even Truss (whom I don't like) would have more electoral appeal. Mordaunt is the best hope for Conservative leaning voters. It is a risk because she is unknown, but that is a known unknown.
    I believe Mordaunt would be an asset for the Conservatives, but then I don't vote Conservative so I am clueless when it comes to reading Conservative voter tea leaves. To me Truss would be electoral poison, but then she might be catnip to those special people in the Shires and the Red Wall who elect Prime Ministers and Governments.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Selebian said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
    The Winner Takes it All in both cases.
    But eek will miss the Arrival of an As Good as New leader for this part of the Crazy World, overcoming Con voter Disillusion and selling a Dream World, claiming I Have a Dream, while the selectorate drools I Still Have Faith in You and I've Been Waiting for You and waits for the Merry Go Round to stop, No Doubt About It. One Man, One Woman in the final ballot? The process will seem So Long now The King Has Lost His Crown and at the next election the new leader will likely say Why Did It Have to Be Me? And yet, eek will be in Another Town, Another Train.
    My main thinking was that I'm getting to see it before TSE does....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Just brilliant - and these are really just the test images, to make sure everything is calibrated correctly. There will be an awful lot more to come from Webb in the future.

    Well done to the huge team who spent over a decade designing and building the thing.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
    Plus the media will focus on the result of the first leadership ballot and won't pay much attention to anti Boris ranting in Westminster.

    The world has moved on from Boris.
    Yep, that is how shit he was. He is now Mrs Rochester. They will probably leave him in the attic at No10 to remind all future occupants what goes wrong when you have a leader with no morality.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
    Plus hardly anybody will listen to the body of the debate. Its just 'labour trying to be relevant in the face of 24/7 tory press coverage'.
    To the average Joe they are trying to make a man who resigned, resign. Its infantile.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167
    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,942

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
    Source?
    I don't have a source for that claim, but it makes sense: Webb is a multinational collaboration (albeit mostly US), and Biden's release of an image early last night seems a very last-minute decision. The other partners may not have been pleased at the politicking if they were not part of the decision to release early.

    That lest picture of the five galaxies is stunning.
    It was a political thing - politician sees an opportunity - which was why the Biden presentation was all over the place. NASA themselves were barely in the loop.

    NASA, themselves, are generally very good at making the partners feel valued, even for small contributions.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    .

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
    Plus hardly anybody will listen to the body of the debate. Its just 'labour trying to be relevant in the face of 24/7 tory press coverage'.
    To the average Joe they are trying to make a man who resigned, resign. Its infantile.
    The average Joe won't even notice there has been a VONC.
  • dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    4. Thanks to No.10 his negatives are out there.
    5. Has had a serious job at the top of government for a long time.
    6. And related. Your average punter knows who he is. (Although that may not be in his favour).
    5. I know a week is a long time in politics, but he only became CotE in 2020
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    Barnesian said:

    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).

    The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200

    If you are going to compare median family incomes in the US over time, you should recognize that family structures have changed in the US. Bluntly, there are far more families that are headed by a single parent, usually a woman, that there were decades ago.

    Here are some numbers: "Compared to several decades ago, children under 18 are more than twice as likely to live with a single parent (either mother or father). In 1968, only 12% of children lived with a single parent, most often their mother. Single-father households were extremely uncommon, with just 1% of kids living with a single father in 1968. By 2020, 25% of kids lived in single-parent households, and the share of kids who lived with a single father quadrupled to more than 4%. Additionally, the proportion of children under 18 who live with other adults (relatives or non-relatives) has become more common.

    Despite the rise in popularity of non-traditional living arrangements, they tend to offer less financial stability than dual-parent family structures. The median income of single-parent households is less than half of dual-parent households — $36,000 compared to $99,000."
    source: https://www.newspressnow.com/news/local_news/as-single-parent-homes-grow-income-disparity-continues-to-lag/article_9240c7a4-b29e-11eb-a29c-0b380d3e57ef.html

    (Daniel Patrick Moynihan got in political trouble for pointing out the effects of single parent families in 1965, and few politicians have wanted to souch the subject, since: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Negro_Family:_The_Case_For_National_Action )

    This is a very good point. The flipside of it is that there are now two earners in many households, so it's not surprising that those households are a lot better off financially than their counterparts of the early 1960s.

    Somewhat similar in the UK, of course. That's one reason why you need to be very careful in comparisons across generations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
    The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.

    It is ghastly.
    Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    sarissa said:

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    So SNP claims of “TORY CUTS!!!” are lies then?

    The have no mandate in Scotland for that.
    Why did the SNP reject “Full Fiscal Autonomy”?

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773

    Barnesian said:

    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).

    The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
    I suspect it will be more than that, possibly 20+
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,252
    👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."

    https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1546872340956545024?s=21&t=qwWvyu9Fr4TqhCY9XgKhKg
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Breaking:

    Told Jeremy Hunt has made it onto the ballot for the Tory leadership election

    So looks like Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat & Hunt have enough support

    We're waiting to hear on Kemi Badenoch, Nadhim Zahawi, Suella Braverman and Sajid Javid
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    The government have refused to allow Labour's VONC.

    They don't think he would win it...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Why has Tugendhat suddenly fallen behind Badenoch on BE?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325
    What time do nomination papers have to be in by?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368

    Barnesian said:

    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).

    The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
    Theyd have a couple SDLP who might take the whip too
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    I guess this is one answer to @philipjcowley ‘s question on why Labour would bother tabling a confidence motion - betting (successfully) that the government would do something stupid and hand them an easy (throughly likely soon forgotten) win https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1546876230875611139
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    GIN1138 said:

    What time do nomination papers have to be in by?

    6pm
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,813

    👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up

    Material or materiel?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325

    👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."

    https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1546872340956545024?s=21&t=qwWvyu9Fr4TqhCY9XgKhKg

    LOL! Go Ben! :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    Leon said:

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
    The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.

    It is ghastly.
    Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
    Art deco
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Parliamentary bible Erskine May:

    “By established convention, the government always accedes to the demand from the leader of the opposition to allot a day for the discussion of a motion tabled by the official opposition...."

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1546872147456495618
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,176

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
    Plus hardly anybody will listen to the body of the debate. Its just 'labour trying to be relevant in the face of 24/7 tory press coverage'.
    To the average Joe they are trying to make a man who resigned, resign. Its infantile.
    Not necessarily. It could play as Jesus Christ he has been told to go yet again and he STILL WON'T GO. Knowing the effect of a HoC VONC, before during and after the ftpa, is postdoc in UK politics stuff and if Labour can persuade people to get the wrong idea, they won't be fobbed off with yet yebbut Callaghan 1979 bollocks.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147
    Leon said:

    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates

    To widen the debate?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,252
    edited July 12
    Scott_xP said:

    Parliamentary bible Erskine May:

    “By established convention, the government always accedes to the demand from the leader of the opposition to allot a day for the discussion of a motion tabled by the official opposition...."

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1546872147456495618

    This is why Boris should have gone immediately. He still has a couple of months to trample over the UK’s democratic conventions.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367

    👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."

    https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1546872340956545024?s=21&t=qwWvyu9Fr4TqhCY9XgKhKg

    If true he should release it before the MP ballots, it shouldn’t wait until the membership vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Leon said:

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
    The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.

    It is ghastly.
    Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
    Brutalism.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325
    Leon said:

    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates

    Gove will get her on the ballot one way or another (what's in it for him remains to be seen but he'll make sure she's there... ;) )
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Leon said:

    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates

    To widen the debate?
    She’s not there to make up the numbers. Yes, she’s not the most experienced candidate - but her first nomination was from Gove, who most definitely is experienced enough to know she’s up to it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    Leon said:

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
    The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.

    It is ghastly.
    Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
    Art deco

    Art Deco. The Chrysler Building. A decorative spire on a skyscraper

    Sounds bizarrely like... Gothic
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 3,367
    Leon said:

    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates

    Pretty sure she’ll make it. I would be more worried about Javid and Suella…
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,252

    Leon said:

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
    You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
    The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.

    It is ghastly.
    Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
    Art deco
    Art Deco is now over 100 years old.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    .

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
    But Boris is going at the hands of his own party, and nothing that happens tomorrow would change that.
    Plus hardly anybody will listen to the body of the debate. Its just 'labour trying to be relevant in the face of 24/7 tory press coverage'.
    To the average Joe they are trying to make a man who resigned, resign. Its infantile.
    The average Joe won't even notice there has been a VONC.
    Particularly as there won't be one.
    This is seriously constitutionally damaging.
    Sets a precedent for a government which loses its majority simply refusing to allow a vote.
    Still. Nothing to see. Playing politics.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
    Has Ruth Davidson come out for any of the candidates? She might have some sway
    Not yet.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,800
    Scott_xP said:

    Parliamentary bible Erskine May:

    “By established convention, the government always accedes to the demand from the leader of the opposition to allot a day for the discussion of a motion tabled by the official opposition...."

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1546872147456495618

    Does Schofield have a real source or is he just trying to drive traffic to his site?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    edited July 12
    ...

    Barnesian said:

    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).

    The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
    Theyd have a couple SDLP who might take the whip too
    I don't believe the LDs would expose themselves for full frontal coalition again, but C&S might work, and yes the SDLP could take the whip.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200
    If Sunak does implode during the MPs' phase of the contest, which is not at all impossible, who benefits? Javid, I suppose, assuming he gets on to the ballot, otherwise Hunt, but it's not obvious.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Leon said:

    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates

    She's only 3 public endorsements short, and some will be private. She won't have a problem getting nominated.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates

    She's only 3 public endorsements short, and some will be private. She won't have a problem getting nominated.
    I wouldn't be surprised if Theresa May were one of them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,340

    If Sunak does implode during the MPs' phase of the contest, which is not at all impossible, who benefits? Javid, I suppose, assuming he gets on to the ballot, otherwise Hunt, but it's not obvious.

    Whoever is best placed to beat Liz Truss.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368

    ...

    Barnesian said:

    MrEd said:

    Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back

    Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
    Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).

    The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
    Theyd have a couple SDLP who might take the whip too
    I don't believe the LDs would go full frontal coalition again, but C&S might work, and yes the SDLP could take the whip.
    I dont think the LDs would go into C and S, theyd say they will vote issue by issue. If Labs majority fell they would probably say theyd allow a QS to pass but retain the right to bring down the govt if they went astray.
    They wont get cabinet seats so why hitch yourself to a weak government?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544

    For the geeks out there, here's a link to the first Webb images being released:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-62137963

    Biden upset quite a few people yesterday, by ignoring the non-NASA contributions to Webb and jumping the gun on the release. Lots of apologising going on from NASA, I understand.
    Source?
    I know a couple of people at ESA. The Biden thing jumped the gun on planned presentation that was going to be NASA lead, with acknowledgement of contributions. It's happened before - US politicians assume that everything NASA is involved with is 100% NASA - but it still grates on some people.
    Thank you.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 445

    CoL, Ukraine.

    No let’s talk about statues. Out of touch.

    Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
    Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
    Last time I heard about it, it was generally left leaning (mainly middle class white people) demanding Cecil Rhodes statue be removed. They seemed quite interested in statues. Then there was that one in Bristol. I guess those were Tories that threw that one (of some slave trader everyone had forgotten about) in the harbour?
    Right wing mayor Sadiq Khan created a panel to review statues (notice how the headline is "London's new diversity commission 'not about removing statues'", but the actual quote is "It’s not just about taking down statues"). But of course the trick is to set up all these commissions and reviews, wait for things to go quiet before having them report, and then implement their findings. That way, when your opponent points out you're now taking down statues, you can accuse them of being obsessed with the topic, and all that was settled a long time ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    Not a traditional confidence vote:

    Not a traditional confidence vote - doesn’t pass the test - and is also a conditional which further complicates it. Back to the drawing board Labour!

    https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1546879092238196736
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

    I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
    He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
    Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich

    For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
    Lol, still apologising for him. The man of the people that allowed his wife to spend absurd sums making No10 look like a tart's boudoir.

    Leon, he was shit. Get with the herd!
This discussion has been closed.