With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
She is articulate and straightforward. People might not like what she’s saying but they may respect her for how she says it. I don’t think that’s necessarily a slam dunk.
Not that I think she’ll get it. Truss and Mordaunt are far more likely. And I also have my own concerns about her. But I think it’s easy to dismiss her as a Labour dream when she represents such a change that there is much that would be unknown.
Reminds me of Corbyn, a conviction politician with limited appeal beyond her tribe and no experience. Truss and Mordaunt are far better, A cabinet job awaits.
I have a funny feeling she'll do very well in the televised debates.
So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.
As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.
My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.
There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.
Sounds right. I was in Nottingham for 13 years - there's a very large Muslim population, but I never heard of any organised rape (and the whole place was a good example of intercommunal rubbing along - even in the Indo-Pakistan wars people agreed not to transfer them locally). Knfie crime, drugs, yes, though not a Muslim issue particularly. Rape gangs? No.
The reality seems to have been that it was a nasty issue in many post-industrial depressed Northern towns (not in, for instance, Liverpool, Sheffield or Manchester). It does need a proper analysis, but not facile arithmetic extrapolation across everywhere.
There were similar cases in Oxford, Wycombe and Peterborough so not completely a Northern issue.
Sex cases are very difficult to prosecute, particularly when a lot of the victims are young and often don't see themselves as victims.
Bad policing is certainly part of the problem, but also a failure of social services, and of the families and communities of these towns.
The problem seems to have been that the police, social services and families all knew what was going on. But the only response to attempts (usually by families) to uncover it was suppress the information.
To my mind the people in the police and social services who knew, and deliberately did nothing are child abusers and should be on the sex offenders register.
So 8 contenders nominated for the leadership ballot tomorrow but really only Sunak, Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Truss likely in contention.
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
You think Tugendhat has enough genuine backers to make Sunak able to try out such a tactic?
The Jack W Crystal Balls - Bollocks & Brilliance In Abundance :
Round 1 - Exit- Badenoch Braverman Zahawi - Under 30.
Round 2 Exit - Hunt Truss - Last and insufficient support to continue.
Round 3 Exit - Tugenhat
Sunak and Mordaunt proceed to member ballot.
Mordaunt Wins.
Mordaunt struggles to solve the economic storm and is blown off course by a disgruntled party.
Starmer Wins.
Let me guess: all Tory candidates are always shite, and the Labour leader always wins.
Close?
Nope. Not always. To win, you need someone who can control the party whilst weathering the economic storm. Not easy, but certainly not a job for a novice.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
I take it sacking all the support staff to focus on "core teaching" isn't one that would encourage you?
We could also cut back on history teachers by simply sending the class to worship at their local slaver statue. Perhaps their school uniforms could be union jacks to advertise Global Britain to any tourists passing by.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Lol Are you expecting your local constituency to switch to the Tories any time soon? Or indeed very much of the world's greatest city?
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
Not really. Badenoch's interviews and speeches are very compelling.
Her weakness is that she's inexperienced, not that she's bonkers.
Compelling to you. That’s the point. Corbyn was similarly compelling .
Possibly the first time I have seen someone asking to be doxxed on PB. (It still shouldn’t be done, even if requested)
I once managed to post a pic of someone's house on PB, quite unintentionally ... though the person in question was overjoyed to see the 1830s print in question.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
You're completely wrong about Griffin. He was - unfortunately - one of the first to bring up Asian/Muslim grooming gangs, LONG before national media. He was secretly recorded by TV and suffered a prosecution for it, but was acquitted
"Rodney Jameson QC, prosecuting, told the jury that Mr Griffin made allegations of paedophile drug rapes by Asian Muslims in Keighley during his speech."
That article does not say any of the allegations made by Griffin were true. 12 men were found guilty of sexual offences in Keighley, but the earliest event prosecuted was five years after Griffin's comments. Griffin in 2004 was not talking about events happening in 2009 onwards. I'm not aware of any specific allegation made by Griffin that was proven true. I'm not aware of Griffin actually making specific or actionable allegations. But then I am not familiar with Griffin's speeches.
"A number of high-profile cases - including the offending in Rotherham investigated by Professor Alexis Jay,3 the Rochdale group convicted as a result of Operation Span, and convictions in Telford – have mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity. Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White.4 Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations.5 However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending. This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that ethnicity data is collected.6 During our conversations with police forces, we have found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However, there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.7" (More details on p. 25 seq.)
I said right at the start of this shindig that Penny is the candidate Labour fear. Yet she appears to be far too woke for many Tory tastes, so I’m not sure she’ll appeal sufficiently to the membership.
However, I hope she wins. Is a nice lady and I’d rather have her as PM than any of the others.
So 8 contenders nominated for the leadership ballot tomorrow but really only Sunak, Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Truss likely in contention.
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
You think Tugendhat has enough genuine backers to make Sunak able to try out such a tactic?
Yes, I expect Tugendhat to be third tomorrow
Can't go wrong with a bland middle aged white guy.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Lol Are you expecting your local constituency to switch to the Tories any time soon? Or indeed very much of the world's greatest city?
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
@Leon - the abuse was not just perpetrated by Asians. Nor - @NickPalmer - just happening in depressed Northern towns. Read the IICSA reports: churches, charities, sport, councils, schools etc. Anywhere there are children, abusers will seek to get their hands on them.
Making this just a Muslim/Asian issue is wrong because the evidence is that it is not just such an issue and it means we don't take the action we need to if we are serious about stamping it out.
To link the two topics, Badenoch could really rock the boat if she called for a judge led national public inquiry like Iraq/hacking, fully televised (might be tricky given the topic). How would the other candidates, and then Labour, respond?
Edit: what a toxic, vicious "wedge issue" that could turn into. Feel a bit bad suggesting it.
IICSA has been going since 2014. Practically no one is interested much. As Leon says it's too big. And it is much bigger than simply Asian gangs.
Kemi really has picked the wrong week to run against Net Zero.
That's a worry. She's fluent and compelling as a speaker. She has a clear set of views. But what happens when those views collide with reality? Is she the sort of person who tries to change reality rather than her views?
(With hindsight, one of Gove's problems as EdSec was that he had spent the previous few years working out what he wanted to do. Which was fine, he picked up a lot of things that were wrong. But he went in with a fully worked-out blueprint that fell apart on contact with actual teachers and schools. See the Duke of Wellington line about making campaigns out of rope, not iron.)
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Shame there's no money in punning, you'd be a billionaire. Awesome natural talent.
That loud bang you heard from your neighbouring county was @IshmaelZ exploding...
Possibly the first time I have seen someone asking to be doxxed on PB. (It still shouldn’t be done, even if requested)
I once managed to post a pic of someone's house on PB, quite unintentionally ... though the person in question was overjoyed to see the 1830s print in question.
Eh? You posted a picture of a random house, and it just happened to be owned by a fellow PBer? What?
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
You're completely wrong about Griffin. He was - unfortunately - one of the first to bring up Asian/Muslim grooming gangs, LONG before national media. He was secretly recorded by TV and suffered a prosecution for it, but was acquitted
"Rodney Jameson QC, prosecuting, told the jury that Mr Griffin made allegations of paedophile drug rapes by Asian Muslims in Keighley during his speech."
That article does not say any of the allegations made by Griffin were true. 12 men were found guilty of sexual offences in Keighley, but the earliest event prosecuted was five years after Griffin's comments. Griffin in 2004 was not talking about events happening in 2009 onwards. I'm not aware of any specific allegation made by Griffin that was proven true. I'm not aware of Griffin actually making specific or actionable allegations. But then I am not familiar with Griffin's speeches.
"A number of high-profile cases - including the offending in Rotherham investigated by Professor Alexis Jay,3 the Rochdale group convicted as a result of Operation Span, and convictions in Telford – have mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity. Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White.4 Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations.5 However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending. This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that ethnicity data is collected.6 During our conversations with police forces, we have found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However, there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.7" (More details on p. 25 seq.)
I am not an expert, but I believe this comment reached 12.98 on the Denial-o-meter, a tool which, it was hitherto supposed, only went up to 10
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Shame there's no money in punning, you'd be a billionaire. Awesome natural talent.
That loud bang you heard from your neighbouring county was @IshmaelZ exploding...
Shame. I used to like Devon.
There was some beautiful countryside in it, but it's now all an ex-moor.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
Nah Londoners should get independence from all the shires, not just the northern ones.
Does anybody else find it a bit weird that several of those on this forum who are most virulently opposed to woke identity politics, especially on matters of race and ethnicity, coincide with those who keep pointing out (proudly, I assume) the diverse ethnicities of the Tory leadership contenders? Gosh, I almost feel like quoting MLK out of context.
Possibly the first time I have seen someone asking to be doxxed on PB. (It still shouldn’t be done, even if requested)
I once managed to post a pic of someone's house on PB, quite unintentionally ... though the person in question was overjoyed to see the 1830s print in question.
Eh? You posted a picture of a random house, and it just happened to be owned by a fellow PBer? What?
Yep, but actually quite credible (it was in the right part of the world). (It was an urban scene, which makes it much more likely on stat grounds, and it had a railway in it, which explains my interest in the pic.)
I said right at the start of this shindig that Penny is the candidate Labour fear. Yet she appears to be far too woke for many Tory tastes, so I’m not sure she’ll appeal sufficiently to the membership.
However, I hope she wins. Is a nice lady and I’d rather have her as PM than any of the others.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
@Leon - the abuse was not just perpetrated by Asians. Nor - @NickPalmer - just happening in depressed Northern towns. Read the IICSA reports: churches, charities, sport, councils, schools etc. Anywhere there are children, abusers will seek to get their hands on them.
Making this just a Muslim/Asian issue is wrong because the evidence is that it is not just such an issue and it means we don't take the action we need to if we are serious about stamping it out.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Shame there's no money in punning, you'd be a billionaire. Awesome natural talent.
That loud bang you heard from your neighbouring county was @IshmaelZ exploding...
Shame. I used to like Devon.
There was some beautiful countryside in it, but it's now all an ex-moor.
Maybe time to take the temperature out of things with talk of leadership contests
From BBC
Patrick Flynn, political analyst at the betting exchange SMarkets, has been running his figures on who might win this contest, and at what stage all the others will be beaten in the votes by MPs.
According to his model, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Kemi Badenoch and Nadim Zahawi will be eliminated in the first three ballots among MPs; Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will go after that; Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will make the final two.
At that stage, all Conservative Party members are able to vote, with the result due on 5 September.
Flynn explained his workings - he looks at how different demographics of MPs have endorsed candidates so far and how those who supported different runners in past contests are shaping up now.
He also looks at MPs voting records on social and economic issues and where their constituencies lie on Brexit.
While some commentators have predicted a quick falling away of candidates, Flynn suggests we could be in for up to five rounds of voting before two rivals emerge.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Perhaps the point is not so much that, but that others were making those allegations too, and were ignored ? Certainly true in the case of Rotherham.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales, the Midlands and Northern Ireland
Does anybody else find it a bit weird that several of those on this forum who are most virulently opposed to woke identity politics, especially on matters of race and ethnicity, coincide with those who keep pointing out (proudly, I assume) the diverse ethnicities of the Tory leadership contenders? Gosh, I almost feel like quoting MLK out of context.
The Tory party really do deserve a fair bit of credit on this, and most opponents have given them some, although a significant proportion have not, or just done it grudgingly. But the fan boys are certainly banging on about it beyond its newsworthiness.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales and Northern Ireland
You're the one who voted PC, which I have never dared to do. And called for a Free Antrim. As well as supporting a party which has broken up the UK by placing a frontier in the Irish Sea.
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Who did you tell him he should vote for?
The fact that he could correctly identify the weakest candidate of the eight is a good start on working it out himself, though.
Does anybody else find it a bit weird that several of those on this forum who are most virulently opposed to woke identity politics, especially on matters of race and ethnicity, coincide with those who keep pointing out (proudly, I assume) the diverse ethnicities of the Tory leadership contenders? Gosh, I almost feel like quoting MLK out of context.
The Tory party really do deserve a fair bit of credit on this, and most opponents have given them some, although a significant proportion have not, or just done it grudgingly. But the fan boys are certainly banging on about it beyond its newsworthiness.
Not the Party so much as the MPs, though. We have yet to see what the result is.
Maybe time to take the temperature out of things with talk of leadership contests
From BBC
Patrick Flynn, political analyst at the betting exchange SMarkets, has been running his figures on who might win this contest, and at what stage all the others will be beaten in the votes by MPs.
According to his model, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Kemi Badenoch and Nadim Zahawi will be eliminated in the first three ballots among MPs; Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will go after that; Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will make the final two.
At that stage, all Conservative Party members are able to vote, with the result due on 5 September.
Flynn explained his workings - he looks at how different demographics of MPs have endorsed candidates so far and how those who supported different runners in past contests are shaping up now.
He also looks at MPs voting records on social and economic issues and where their constituencies lie on Brexit.
While some commentators have predicted a quick falling away of candidates, Flynn suggests we could be in for up to five rounds of voting before two rivals emerge.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
You're completely wrong about Griffin. He was - unfortunately - one of the first to bring up Asian/Muslim grooming gangs, LONG before national media. He was secretly recorded by TV and suffered a prosecution for it, but was acquitted
"Rodney Jameson QC, prosecuting, told the jury that Mr Griffin made allegations of paedophile drug rapes by Asian Muslims in Keighley during his speech."
That article does not say any of the allegations made by Griffin were true. 12 men were found guilty of sexual offences in Keighley, but the earliest event prosecuted was five years after Griffin's comments. Griffin in 2004 was not talking about events happening in 2009 onwards. I'm not aware of any specific allegation made by Griffin that was proven true. I'm not aware of Griffin actually making specific or actionable allegations. But then I am not familiar with Griffin's speeches.
"A number of high-profile cases - including the offending in Rotherham investigated by Professor Alexis Jay,3 the Rochdale group convicted as a result of Operation Span, and convictions in Telford – have mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity. Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White.4 Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations.5 However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending. This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that ethnicity data is collected.6 During our conversations with police forces, we have found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However, there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.7" (More details on p. 25 seq.)
I feel somewhat wary about replying to this. There is clearly a problem in some places with Asian/Muslim gangs. How many cases have there been? How many similar networks of white men have been reported? I am sure there are networks of white groomers, but it seems likely that the specific cases we have seen may well be a different mode to the white groups.
Sadly to the casual eye, the report you link to just looks like another example of skirting gingerly around the racism issue. It probably isn’t, but when the narrative is so different from public perception a strong case needs to be made.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I'm sure everyone knows that Telford is an important issue but on a betting site people will be clearly far more interested in the Tory leadership ballot right now.
The thing is, you need to understand that this site is not all about you. You seem to believe that once you have graced us with your presence or posted your latest photo of a bottle of wine on a table somewhere that we are all obliged to start discussing whatever it is you have decided you want to talk about. It doesn't work like that particularly when half the time you are trying to divert conversation towards your anti-woke obsessions.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
I don’t mind who ends up winning, so long as it’s not Truss. The blue dress almost made me puke.
I thought Badenoch’s line that given record spend on the civil service, people should reasonably expect their passports to be processed on time was quite a good one - that could cut through to the wider public as well as the party members.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
I take it sacking all the support staff to focus on "core teaching" isn't one that would encourage you?
Fucking hell. What moron is proposing that?
(Although given the difficulty recruiting TAs it may happen by default anyway.)
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
@Leon - the abuse was not just perpetrated by Asians. Nor - @NickPalmer - just happening in depressed Northern towns. Read the IICSA reports: churches, charities, sport, councils, schools etc. Anywhere there are children, abusers will seek to get their hands on them.
Making this just a Muslim/Asian issue is wrong because the evidence is that it is not just such an issue and it means we don't take the action we need to if we are serious about stamping it out.
Are people saying it’s just an Asian/Muslim issue? Or flagging up a particular variant of offending that seems specific?
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
I think the Labour Party would actually want Braverman to lose, on the grounds that there's no point the government being utterly hated if there are no elections to turn them out and no economy left to rescue.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Or Hunt to split the Tories.
Mordaunt is the best placed to do well in a GE, Sunak will not be terrible but wont do great either, whereas Truss, Badenoch could be popular or disasters. Not sure on The Hat at all.
To link the two topics, Badenoch could really rock the boat if she called for a judge led national public inquiry like Iraq/hacking, fully televised (might be tricky given the topic). How would the other candidates, and then Labour, respond?
Edit: what a toxic, vicious "wedge issue" that could turn into. Feel a bit bad suggesting it.
There already is a very good inquiry. We don't need another one. Nor do we need it turned into a "wedge" issue. What we do need is action taken to protect those entrusted to our care - our children - our offering to the future.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
I take it sacking all the support staff to focus on "core teaching" isn't one that would encourage you?
Fucking hell. What moron is proposing that?
(Although given the difficulty recruiting TAs it may happen by default anyway.)
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
No, she’s younger, and smarter, and might change over time. Corbyn was the same useless fool for decades.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales and Northern Ireland
You're the one who voted PC, which I have never dared to do. And called for a Free Antrim. As well as supporting a party which has broken up the UK by placing a frontier in the Irish Sea.
I voted for every Tory candidate on that Town Council ballot paper, I just voted for a few, not all, Plaid candidates to use up my votes as they were the only alternative left. I always use all my votes.
I want NI to stay in the UK, a free Antrim is only my preference to Antrim being forced into the Republic against its will if the rest of NI ever backs a United Ireland.
The government has now passed legislation to remove the Irish Sea border
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales and Northern Ireland
You're the one who voted PC, which I have never dared to do. And called for a Free Antrim. As well as supporting a party which has broken up the UK by placing a frontier in the Irish Sea.
I voted for every Tory candidate on that Town Council ballot paper, I just voted for a few, not all, Plaid candidates to use up my votes as they were the only alternative left. I always use all my votes.
Counter productive, but I respect the reasoning nonetheless.
To link the two topics, Badenoch could really rock the boat if she called for a judge led national public inquiry like Iraq/hacking, fully televised (might be tricky given the topic). How would the other candidates, and then Labour, respond?
Edit: what a toxic, vicious "wedge issue" that could turn into. Feel a bit bad suggesting it.
There already is a very good inquiry. We don't need another one. Nor do we need it turned into a "wedge" issue. What we do need is action taken to protect those entrusted to our care - our children - our offering to the future.
You mean turning it into a party political issue and then spending a large amount of money on a new organisation to not deal with it, isn't an option?
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I'm sure everyone knows that Telford is an important issue but on a betting site people will be clearly far more interested in the Tory leadership ballot right now.
The thing is, you need to understand that this site is not all about you. You seem to believe that once you have graced us with your presence or posted your latest photo of a bottle of wine on a table somewhere that we are all obliged to start discussing whatever it is you have decided you want to talk about. It doesn't work like that particularly when half the time you are trying to divert conversation towards your anti-woke obsessions.
Er, OK...
I have no more influence on how discussions proceed, than anyone else, it's a conversation
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales and Northern Ireland
You're the one who voted PC, which I have never dared to do. And called for a Free Antrim. As well as supporting a party which has broken up the UK by placing a frontier in the Irish Sea.
I voted for every Tory candidate on that Town Council ballot paper, I just voted for a few, not all, Plaid candidates to use up my votes as they were the only alternative left. I always use all my votes.
I want NI to stay in the UK, a free Antrim is only my preference to Antrim being forced into the Republic against its will if the rest of NI ever backs a United Ireland.
The government has now passed legislation to remove the Irish Sea border
I can't help thinking that point 3 is just a teensy bit optimistic. And it doesn't change my point that the same party in its previous administration, under the same prime minister, imposed that very border.
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales and Northern Ireland
You're the one who voted PC, which I have never dared to do. And called for a Free Antrim. As well as supporting a party which has broken up the UK by placing a frontier in the Irish Sea.
I voted for every Tory candidate on that Town Council ballot paper, I just voted for a few, not all, Plaid candidates to use up my votes as they were the only alternative left. I always use all my votes.
I want NI to stay in the UK, a free Antrim is only my preference to Antrim being forced into the Republic against its will if the rest of NI ever backs a United Ireland.
The government has now passed legislation to remove the Irish Sea border
Don't forget, Down is more Protestant than Antrim.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Who’s we?
Southern England. The "Suthangli" as identified by Romanized Vikings who feared them
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
We are one United Kingdom, the North as much as Scotland, London and the South, Wales and Northern Ireland
You're the one who voted PC, which I have never dared to do. And called for a Free Antrim. As well as supporting a party which has broken up the UK by placing a frontier in the Irish Sea.
I voted for every Tory candidate on that Town Council ballot paper, I just voted for a few, not all, Plaid candidates to use up my votes as they were the only alternative left. I always use all my votes.
I want NI to stay in the UK, a free Antrim is only my preference to Antrim being forced into the Republic against its will if the rest of NI ever backs a United Ireland.
The government has now passed legislation to remove the Irish Sea border
Don't forget, Down is more Protestant than Antrim.
All good stuff, like the benefits of laminate floors. "PB's 100 helpful hints for DIY Partitionist Bitter Enders."
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
There is something about Sunak that I find cringeworthy. I think it is the Blair-like slickness, the fake sincerity, the focus-grouped inflections and mannerisms.
Yes he’s charismatic. But there’s something a bit - uncanny valley? about him.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
As Heseltine said 'he who wields the dagger never wears the crown.'
I suspect Rishi is worried. Penny should be favourite.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Looks about right.
Meanwhile, champagne corks popping in SNP HQ for the whole lot of them.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Shame there's no money in punning, you'd be a billionaire. Awesome natural talent.
That loud bang you heard from your neighbouring county was @IshmaelZ exploding...
Shame. I used to like Devon.
There was some beautiful countryside in it, but it's now all an ex-moor.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Plan would be the same as Boris. Wait for self inflicted mistakes. Net zero in a heat wave the first of them. (Could have made a similar point by suggesting to suspend fuel duty for 2 years without getting fully into the net zero wormhole.)
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
@Leon - the abuse was not just perpetrated by Asians. Nor - @NickPalmer - just happening in depressed Northern towns. Read the IICSA reports: churches, charities, sport, councils, schools etc. Anywhere there are children, abusers will seek to get their hands on them.
Making this just a Muslim/Asian issue is wrong because the evidence is that it is not just such an issue and it means we don't take the action we need to if we are serious about stamping it out.
Are people saying it’s just an Asian/Muslim issue? Or flagging up a particular variant of offending that seems specific?
The method of mass prosecution does se quite specific to Asian gangs though, whether that is a result of how the pattern of offending, or whether mass prosecutions could obe possible or should be pursued in other types of abuse, for instance in trafficked and coerced prostitution rings, I don't know.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
The Jack W Crystal Balls - Bollocks & Brilliance In Abundance :
Round 1 - Exit- Badenoch Braverman Zahawi - Under 30.
Round 2 Exit - Hunt Truss - Last and insufficient support to continue.
Round 3 Exit - Tugenhat
Sunak and Mordaunt proceed to member ballot.
Mordaunt Wins.
Mordaunt struggles to solve the economic storm and is blown off course by a disgruntled party.
Starmer Wins.
Let me guess: all Tory candidates are always shite, and the Labour leader always wins.
Close?
Nope. Not always. To win, you need someone who can control the party whilst weathering the economic storm. Not easy, but certainly not a job for a novice.
Who has most experience as party leader? Who has most experience as Prime Minister? I suspect yhey are all novices with 0 experience.
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Please…
With regard to Braverman, which popular character is each of the candidates ?
I offer… “Suella de Vil, Suella de Vil, If she doesn't scare you No evil thing will To see her is to Take a sudden chill…”
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
As Heseltine said 'he who wields the dagger never wears the crown.'
I suspect Rishi is worried. Penny should be favourite.
The members used to like them. He needs to try to recapture that. It won't be done by talk of not telling fairy tales. That's what all electorates want.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I'm sure everyone knows that Telford is an important issue but on a betting site people will be clearly far more interested in the Tory leadership ballot right now.
The thing is, you need to understand that this site is not all about you. You seem to believe that once you have graced us with your presence or posted your latest photo of a bottle of wine on a table somewhere that we are all obliged to start discussing whatever it is you have decided you want to talk about. It doesn't work like that particularly when half the time you are trying to divert conversation towards your anti-woke obsessions.
Er, OK...
I have no more influence on how discussions proceed, than anyone else, it's a conversation
No, you want us all to discuss what you want. On the eve of the first round of voting for the leader you want us all to discuss Telford grooming gangs and the fact that some of don't care to do that means that we don't care about the issue.
Maybe time to take the temperature out of things with talk of leadership contests
From BBC
Patrick Flynn, political analyst at the betting exchange SMarkets, has been running his figures on who might win this contest, and at what stage all the others will be beaten in the votes by MPs.
According to his model, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Kemi Badenoch and Nadim Zahawi will be eliminated in the first three ballots among MPs; Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will go after that; Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will make the final two.
At that stage, all Conservative Party members are able to vote, with the result due on 5 September.
Flynn explained his workings - he looks at how different demographics of MPs have endorsed candidates so far and how those who supported different runners in past contests are shaping up now.
He also looks at MPs voting records on social and economic issues and where their constituencies lie on Brexit.
While some commentators have predicted a quick falling away of candidates, Flynn suggests we could be in for up to five rounds of voting before two rivals emerge.
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Who did you tell him he should vote for?
The fact that he could correctly identify the weakest candidate of the eight is a good start on working it out himself, though.
I didn't. I am waiting to see who survives the endless ballots.
Himself was having a good laugh at the ludicrous ballot process just now. He generally thinks most politicians are a waste of space. But in his professional life he has worked well with a number of them in all parties. He was particularly incensed by Robert Jenrick's behaviour and thought Robert Buckland very overpromoted.
We have a Labour councillor in Millom since the local elections whom he knows and thinks very good indeed. So he is not in any sense a typical Tory at all.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Well, the only way to do that is to cut class sizes by 60%.
Which would actually be a great idea, but would be a leetle difficult from a financial perspective.
To link the two topics, Badenoch could really rock the boat if she called for a judge led national public inquiry like Iraq/hacking, fully televised (might be tricky given the topic). How would the other candidates, and then Labour, respond?
Edit: what a toxic, vicious "wedge issue" that could turn into. Feel a bit bad suggesting it.
There already is a very good inquiry. We don't need another one. Nor do we need it turned into a "wedge" issue. What we do need is action taken to protect those entrusted to our care - our children - our offering to the future.
"After our last hearing, President Trump tried to call a witness in our investigation," Rep. Liz Cheney says in closing of Tuesday’s Jan. 6 hearing, adding that the committee has alerted the Department of Justice. http://bit.ly/3uDt0mk
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
Not really. Badenoch's interviews and speeches are very compelling.
Her weakness is that she's inexperienced, not that she's bonkers.
Compelling to you. That’s the point. Corbyn was similarly compelling .
We've just had the Tory Corbyn.
Please don't insult my intelligence. We all know you are just rehearsing attack lines.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
But it is. In their thousands.
And the really scary thing? I don't know what would realistically attract them back.
(I certainly don't know what would attract me back. Obviously, enough money would, but the amount needed would be the amount that would allow me to stop teaching shortly afterwards, so that doesn't entirely help.
I think it boils down to some combination of more enjoyment, more respect (broadly interpreted) and less exhaustion. It's a tough but important problem, and I don't think anyone is doing the necessary thinking about it.)
Missed this interesting titbit - what if some really damaging scandal emerged?
Conservative leadership candidates will be forced to agree in writing that they will not withdraw from the contest if they are in the final two names put to a vote of the party's members, under new plans to stop MPs stitching up who is the next prime minister
I was also excited by this, but I see it is almost a week old, so practically prehistoric. Sunak needs a lot of stories like this to remind members of his appeal.
Does anybody else find it a bit weird that several of those on this forum who are most virulently opposed to woke identity politics, especially on matters of race and ethnicity, coincide with those who keep pointing out (proudly, I assume) the diverse ethnicities of the Tory leadership contenders? Gosh, I almost feel like quoting MLK out of context.
Have they made their race and ethnicity central to their candidacy?
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
The attack lines will be against her policies not the person.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
It might well be she is a smooth talking fool. That's almost a return to traditional leadership in fairness.
Comments
To my mind the people in the police and social services who knew, and deliberately did nothing are child abusers and should be on the sex offenders register.
Why?
As Cyclefree sagely notes, child sexual exploitation is a huge problem. But is there a specific problem with Muslim and/or Asian grooming gangs? The Home Office concluded in a 2020 report, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/944206/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf , that there is not, saying:
"A number of high-profile cases - including the offending in Rotherham investigated by Professor Alexis Jay,3 the Rochdale group convicted as a result of Operation Span, and convictions in Telford – have mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity. Beyond specific high-profile cases, the academic literature highlights significant limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of offending. Research has found that group-based CSE offenders are most commonly White.4 Some studies suggest an over-representation of Black and Asian offenders relative to the demographics of national populations.5 However, it is not possible to conclude that this is representative of all group-based CSE offending. This is due to issues such as data quality problems, the way the samples were selected in studies, and the potential for bias and inaccuracies in the way that ethnicity data is collected.6 During our conversations with police forces, we have found that in the operations reflected, offender groups come from diverse backgrounds, with each group being broadly ethnically homogenous. However, there are cases where offenders within groups come from different backgrounds.7" (More details on p. 25 seq.)
(Worth watching)
However, I hope she wins. Is a nice lady and I’d rather have her as PM than any of the others.
The people that conquered the world. Including Scotland
Making this just a Muslim/Asian issue is wrong because the evidence is that it is not just such an issue and it means we don't take the action we need to if we are serious about stamping it out.
And it is much bigger than simply Asian gangs.
Does anybody else find it a bit weird that several of those on this forum who are most virulently opposed to woke identity politics, especially on matters of race and ethnicity, coincide with those who keep pointing out (proudly, I assume) the diverse ethnicities of the Tory leadership contenders? Gosh, I almost feel like quoting MLK out of context.
Prepare for the Tories to become a much posher party again if he becomes their leader and PM
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1546856062845915140?s=20&t=DeFMRR65_wa_rRNK2W3L9A
From BBC
Patrick Flynn, political analyst at the betting exchange SMarkets, has been running his figures on who might win this contest, and at what stage all the others will be beaten in the votes by MPs.
According to his model, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, Kemi Badenoch and Nadim Zahawi will be eliminated in the first three ballots among MPs; Tom Tugendhat and Liz Truss will go after that; Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will make the final two.
At that stage, all Conservative Party members are able to vote, with the result due on 5 September.
Flynn explained his workings - he looks at how different demographics of MPs have endorsed candidates so far and how those who supported different runners in past contests are shaping up now.
He also looks at MPs voting records on social and economic issues and where their constituencies lie on Brexit.
While some commentators have predicted a quick falling away of candidates, Flynn suggests we could be in for up to five rounds of voting before two rivals emerge.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62115347
Five rounds seems excessive, I think 4 will be the max.
Certainly true in the case of Rotherham.
The fact that he could correctly identify the weakest candidate of the eight is a good start on working it out himself, though.
Sadly to the casual eye, the report you link to just looks like another example of skirting gingerly around the racism issue. It probably isn’t, but when the narrative is so different from public perception a strong case needs to be made.
The thing is, you need to understand that this site is not all about you. You seem to believe that once you have graced us with your presence or posted your latest photo of a bottle of wine on a table somewhere that we are all obliged to start discussing whatever it is you have decided you want to talk about. It doesn't work like that particularly when half the time you are trying to divert conversation towards your anti-woke obsessions.
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
I thought Badenoch’s line that given record spend on the civil service, people should reasonably expect their passports to be processed on time was quite a good one - that could cut through to the wider public as well as the party members.
Mordaunt is the best placed to do well in a GE, Sunak will not be terrible but wont do great either, whereas Truss, Badenoch could be popular or disasters. Not sure on The Hat at all.
No wonder Gove likes her.
Corbyn was the same useless fool for decades.
But I see what you’re getting at.
I want NI to stay in the UK, a free Antrim is only my preference to Antrim being forced into the Republic against its will if the rest of NI ever backs a United Ireland.
The government has now passed legislation to remove the Irish Sea border
All the Quangocrats will be very upset.
I have no more influence on how discussions proceed, than anyone else, it's a conversation
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
Yes he’s charismatic. But there’s something a bit - uncanny valley? about him.
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
I suspect Rishi is worried. Penny should be favourite.
Meanwhile, champagne corks popping in SNP HQ for the whole lot of them.
Wallace was our only (modest) concern.
Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Who has most experience as Prime Minister?
I suspect yhey are all novices with 0 experience.
With regard to Braverman, which popular character is each of the candidates ?
I offer…
“Suella de Vil,
Suella de Vil,
If she doesn't scare you
No evil thing will
To see her is to
Take a sudden chill…”
Himself was having a good laugh at the ludicrous ballot process just now. He generally thinks most politicians are a waste of space. But in his professional life he has worked well with a number of them in all parties. He was particularly incensed by Robert Jenrick's behaviour and thought Robert Buckland very overpromoted.
We have a Labour councillor in Millom since the local elections whom he knows and thinks very good indeed. So he is not in any sense a typical Tory at all.
Which would actually be a great idea, but would be a leetle difficult from a financial perspective.
So I suspect she is talking bullshit.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1546949109386559489
Please don't insult my intelligence. We all know you are just rehearsing attack lines.
(I certainly don't know what would attract me back. Obviously, enough money would, but the amount needed would be the amount that would allow me to stop teaching shortly afterwards, so that doesn't entirely help.
I think it boils down to some combination of more enjoyment, more respect (broadly interpreted) and less exhaustion. It's a tough but important problem, and I don't think anyone is doing the necessary thinking about it.)
Conservative leadership candidates will be forced to agree in writing that they will not withdraw from the contest if they are in the final two names put to a vote of the party's members, under new plans to stop MPs stitching up who is the next prime minister
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/12/1922-committee-rules-how-tory-will-elect-next-prime-minister/
I was also excited by this, but I see it is almost a week old, so practically prehistoric. Sunak needs a lot of stories like this to remind members of his appeal.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1545033843480084482
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
They'd probably both sort of enjoy it and it'd break the tension.
I'd enjoy the banter heuristics on here afterwards as they critiqued each other.