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So now it is down to 8 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2022 in General
So now it is down to 8 – politicalbetting.com

Sir Graham Brady confirms there are 8?? candidates for the Conservative leadership:BadenochBravermanHuntMordauntSunakTrussTugendhatZahawiMPs will vote for the first time tomorrow – result as soon as possible after ballot closes at 3.30pm.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Like a good curry, I feel the need to repeat myself:

    Evening all :)

    When you are dealing with what has been termed as "the most sophisticated electorate in the world" (?), believe nothing or believe everything as a wise man once told me.

    Nominations are not votes - you can nominate Candidate A and vote for Candidate B. If you're clever, you can be courted by Candidates A, B, C and D and vote for Candidate E.

    The weight of numbers behind each candidate is a measure of illusion and delusion. Clearly, getting past the first hurdle means the eight are all serious players if not in terms of winning in terms of endorsement. Now, as we all know, even @Leon I suspect, there's no such thing as a free lunch.

    If you nominate a candidate and that candidate wins, it's reasonable to suppose said victor will be magnanimous in victory and reward their backers accordingly. Of course, if the candidate isn't successful but pledges support to the eventual winner in good time, there are rewards to be had though the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer should never be forgotten in Cabinet formation.

    Those who have been at the top for longest will have had longest to build networks of support within the Party and will be best placed (arguably) to reward their "friends" - this is why the likes of Sunak start with an advantage. It's not just being Chancellor - it's the control of the Treasury team and the money.

    Osborne built up a formidable network of loyalists - much good it did him in the end but had events transpired otherwise it would likely have smoothed his eventual succession to David Cameron.

    For the lower ranking Ministers, it's that thing you say, that policy you offer, that unexpected offer of supporters which propels you up the rankings and while that may not mean victory today, it likely means a place at the top table and a position of importance in the next contest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    This accelerated timetable may be daft, but you can't call it dull.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    The Tories are clearly racist, the Muslim heritage people have been barred from standing in the leadership contest.

    FAKE NEWS!

    You forgot about Zahawi.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Funny that there’s two white men in the eight nominees. And they’re the outsiders, we could have no white men by tomorrow night.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    ydoethur said:

    This accelerated timetable may be daft, but you can't call it dull.

    It is dull. There we are, I did it!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    ydoethur said:

    The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.

    The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxewg5/ukrainian_forces_destroy_the_railway_bridge/

    Did they use sleeper agents?
    A rail-gun, surely.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Evening folks.

    It has been gently but persistently raining here, about five miles north of Cheltenham, for the last hour. This is immensely pleasing for us gardeners, especially as it is so unexpected.

    The reason it is unexpected is because it was not forecast, which is immensely pleasing to those of us whose complaints about weather forecasters are regularly dismissed, here and elsewhere.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    Zahawi is a good Muslim boy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab

    Kemi has to be the value there. Momentum is with her. (Not the hard-left Corbynite group).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Truss backed by jrm and mad nad, I see.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    stodge said:

    Like a good curry, I feel the need to repeat myself:

    Evening all :)

    When you are dealing with what has been termed as "the most sophisticated electorate in the world" (?), believe nothing or believe everything as a wise man once told me.

    Nominations are not votes - you can nominate Candidate A and vote for Candidate B. If you're clever, you can be courted by Candidates A, B, C and D and vote for Candidate E.

    The weight of numbers behind each candidate is a measure of illusion and delusion. Clearly, getting past the first hurdle means the eight are all serious players if not in terms of winning in terms of endorsement. Now, as we all know, even @Leon I suspect, there's no such thing as a free lunch.

    If you nominate a candidate and that candidate wins, it's reasonable to suppose said victor will be magnanimous in victory and reward their backers accordingly. Of course, if the candidate isn't successful but pledges support to the eventual winner in good time, there are rewards to be had though the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer should never be forgotten in Cabinet formation.

    Those who have been at the top for longest will have had longest to build networks of support within the Party and will be best placed (arguably) to reward their "friends" - this is why the likes of Sunak start with an advantage. It's not just being Chancellor - it's the control of the Treasury team and the money.

    Osborne built up a formidable network of loyalists - much good it did him in the end but had events transpired otherwise it would likely have smoothed his eventual succession to David Cameron.

    For the lower ranking Ministers, it's that thing you say, that policy you offer, that unexpected offer of supporters which propels you up the rankings and while that may not mean victory today, it likely means a place at the top table and a position of importance in the next contest.

    If the selectorate of MPs are the MOST sophisticated electorate in the world, is the final stage (of swiveleyed nutjobs old farts and district councillors) the LEAST?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    ydoethur said:

    This accelerated timetable may be daft, but you can't call it dull.

    There's a number of factors at work here - the sense of getting Boris Johnson out of Downing Street in as dignified a way as possible as quickly as possible. There's also the advantage this hands to the more senior (and therefore more organised) candidates who have networks of support in place.

    There's the more coherent notion we can't go on basically functioning without a Government - actually we can and it works rather well.

    There is finally the thorny question of the membership vote - will the need to get Government re-started mean the membership vote doesn't happen and the parliamentary Party coalesces (happily or otherwise) round one candidate - that looks improbable now but in 48 hours who knows?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss backed by jrm and mad nad, I see.

    Truss is continuity Boris.

    She’d make JRM Chancellor and Nads Home Secretary.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    edited July 2022

    ydoethur said:

    The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.

    The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxewg5/ukrainian_forces_destroy_the_railway_bridge/

    Did they use sleeper agents?
    A rail-gun, surely.
    hmmm

    image
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited July 2022
    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    I fear TSE may be talking Shiite.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab

    Kemi has to be the value there. Momentum is with her. (Not the hard-left Corbynite group).
    It is interesting that Kemi is running against Boris just as he ran against the Cameron and May governments. She is 8.4 to reach the final two.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.200835061
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    Zahawi is a good Muslim boy.
    He can't be, because judging by his loyalty to Johnson, he can't spot a pork pie when he sees one.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    Not saying that pun is Shiite, but I made it at 1834 on previous thread.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    Not saying that pun is Shiite, but I made it at 1834 on previous thread.
    peccasti
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss backed by jrm and mad nad, I see.

    Truss is continuity Boris.

    She’d make JRM Chancellor and Nads Home Secretary.
    Yep, both reasons why I do not want her to win. That and the fact she looks like a tortoise, which is not anyone's fault, even Boris's.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    Not saying that pun is Shiite, but I made it at 1834 on previous thread.
    I felt someone would have, but still ploughed on with the above. What an eid-iot.
  • We are in full denial of reality today.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4018824#Comment_4018824

    Flagged off topic

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4018784#Comment_4018784

    Flagged off topic

    I can see somebody is very wound up by my posts.

    And to that I can say: thank you and I will carry on, wish you the best kind stranger.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss backed by jrm and mad nad, I see.

    Truss is continuity Boris.

    She’d make JRM Chancellor and Nads Home Secretary.
    Any rules on how soon after election a VONC can be triggered?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited July 2022
    I’m hoping Truss implodes, because I’m afraid I subscribe to the notion that anyone against Rishi in the final round is likely to eventually beat him, and I don’t want JRM and Nadine to continue to have sway over government.

    Penny is my choice, Kemi second. They would both give me a chance to consider the Tories again. I’m pretty sure I couldn’t vote for the party led by Truss, particularly if she takes the role of continuity Boris. And I’m not a fan of Rishi.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    Not saying that pun is Shiite, but I made it at 1834 on previous thread.
    You had to Makkah claim to precedence, didn't you?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited July 2022
    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss backed by jrm and mad nad, I see.

    Truss is continuity Boris.

    She’d make JRM Chancellor and Nads Home Secretary.
    Any rules on how soon after election a VONC can be triggered?
    The same question has come in from Alexander in Westminster.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    Doesn't work if you try the troll with a tweak the second time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Kemi is probably too short already but I expect her to go shorter so not laying yet.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    We are in full denial of reality today.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4018824#Comment_4018824

    Flagged off topic

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4018784#Comment_4018784

    Flagged off topic

    I can see somebody is very wound up by my posts.

    And to that I can say: thank you and I will carry on, wish you the best kind stranger.

    Don't worry. I got flagged for saying "Hunt has made the cut". Well that was what I meant to say but I did a "Jim Naughtie" on my keyboard and somehow got letters transposed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab

    Kemi has to be the value there. Momentum is with her. (Not the hard-left Corbynite group).
    Interesting comparison, there is something of the Corbyn about her candidacy.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Off on a complete tangent for a change.

    As @NickPalmer has probably seen, some interesting developments in Danish politics with the founding of the Denmark Democrats three weeks ago. The obvious parallel is with the Sweden Democrats and their Danish counterparts would win 10.8% in a hypothetical Folketing election.

    They have 4 MPs with defections from the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) who seem to be imploding after their poor Folketing and local election results and serious questions over their leader, Morten Messerschmidt (I kid you not).

    The latest Megafon poll has support for the current four party centre-left Government down from 48% to 46%. After a disastrous spell, Venstre are regaining support and are on 13.1%, just behind the Conservatives on 13.4% It's uncertain whether the Denmark Democrats would support a future centre-right Government.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    Kemi is probably too short already but I expect her to go shorter so not laying yet.

    Is she shorter than Sunak?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Kemi is probably too short already but I expect her to go shorter so not laying yet.

    That sentence sounds all wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414

    Kemi is probably too short already but I expect her to go shorter so not laying yet.

    I suspect so, sadly. I am steeling myself for an exit in the next round. Unless she manages to get another big endorsement tomorrow (e.g Priti or Javid).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Truss backed by jrm and mad nad, I see.

    Truss is continuity Boris.

    She’d make JRM Chancellor and Nads Home Secretary.
    Any rules on how soon after election a VONC can be triggered?
    At least as Home Sec Nadine would not be able to destroy the BBC - one of the few things left going for this country on the world stage.

    And as for Mogg as CoE, my mate joked that if that happened his entire time would be spent reintroducing the groat and the pennyfarthing.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    Not saying that pun is Shiite, but I made it at 1834 on previous thread.
    I felt someone would have, but still ploughed on with the above. What an eid-iot.
    I'd just Ramadan with it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    edited July 2022
    stodge said:

    Off on a complete tangent for a change.

    As @NickPalmer has probably seen, some interesting developments in Danish politics with the founding of the Denmark Democrats three weeks ago. The obvious parallel is with the Sweden Democrats and their Danish counterparts would win 10.8% in a hypothetical Folketing election.

    They have 4 MPs with defections from the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) who seem to be imploding after their poor Folketing and local election results and serious questions over their leader, Morten Messerschmidt (I kid you not).

    The latest Megafon poll has support for the current four party centre-left Government down from 48% to 46%. After a disastrous spell, Venstre are regaining support and are on 13.1%, just behind the Conservatives on 13.4% It's uncertain whether the Denmark Democrats would support a future centre-right Government.

    Are you saying Messerschmidt has gone down in flames?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab

    Kemi has to be the value there. Momentum is with her. (Not the hard-left Corbynite group).
    It is interesting that Kemi is running against Boris just as he ran against the Cameron and May governments. She is 8.4 to reach the final two.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.200835061
    If I still had a Betfair account, I’d be on that.

    She’s 2005 Cameron, and has Gove standing next to her.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Off on a complete tangent for a change.

    As @NickPalmer has probably seen, some interesting developments in Danish politics with the founding of the Denmark Democrats three weeks ago. The obvious parallel is with the Sweden Democrats and their Danish counterparts would win 10.8% in a hypothetical Folketing election.

    They have 4 MPs with defections from the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) who seem to be imploding after their poor Folketing and local election results and serious questions over their leader, Morten Messerschmidt (I kid you not).

    The latest Megafon poll has support for the current four party centre-left Government down from 48% to 46%. After a disastrous spell, Venstre are regaining support and are on 13.1%, just behind the Conservatives on 13.4% It's uncertain whether the Denmark Democrats would support a future centre-right Government.

    Are you saying Messerschmidt has gone down in flames?
    He's Fokkered up.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited July 2022

    Kemi is probably too short already but I expect her to go shorter so not laying yet.

    I suspect so, sadly. I am steeling myself for an exit in the next round. Unless she manages to get another big endorsement tomorrow (e.g Priti or Javid).
    This is where some of the undecideds need to donate Kemi their votes to ensure that she reaches the middle stages - like happened to Corbyn, and Thatcher. Fun!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited July 2022
    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    It's only luck that the White House Counsel's team made it to the Oval Office to body-block Flynn/Powell/Byrne's coup plan on 18 December. Otherwise Trump would have signed the EO appointing Powell Special Counsel and armed federal troops would have seized voting equipment.

    Sidney Powell told the Select Cttee that Trump DID verbally appoint her Special Counsel and order her a security clearance. Cipollone is slippery but all but confirms this account, only noting that they never signed the papers.


    https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1546915439460089862
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Tory party is racist.

    The Pakistani heritage people have been barred from standing.

    In these difficult times, they dare not have anyone of an overtly Sunni disposition. That was the mistake they made with Johnson.
    Not saying that pun is Shiite, but I made it at 1834 on previous thread.
    I felt someone would have, but still ploughed on with the above. What an eid-iot.
    I'd just Ramadan with it.
    I heard that the Ayatollahs in Iran caused great damage to the UK by delivering a new type of judgement. It is known as a fatwa nker . AKA Boris Johnson.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    The situation is bad enough without naively multiplying across the whole country. What was the involvement of criminal (well, other than this crime) gangs? Why northern towns rather than southern ones, or is there more to be uncovered? Will there be a proper inquiry?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab

    Kemi has to be the value there. Momentum is with her. (Not the hard-left Corbynite group).
    It is interesting that Kemi is running against Boris just as he ran against the Cameron and May governments. She is 8.4 to reach the final two.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.200835061
    If I still had a Betfair account, I’d be on that.

    She’s 2005 Cameron, and has Gove standing next to her.
    By the same token Tugendhat at 8.4 to reach the last two is a clear lay
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    There will always be some PBers that it will be good to take aim at over their expressed undying love for the worst PM of all time. Boris Johnson's resignation could only be topped by seeing Rees-Mogg or Corbyn lose their seat.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Betfair next pm prices:-

    2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    13.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab

    Kemi has to be the value there. Momentum is with her. (Not the hard-left Corbynite group).
    It is interesting that Kemi is running against Boris just as he ran against the Cameron and May governments. She is 8.4 to reach the final two.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.200835061
    If I still had a Betfair account, I’d be on that.

    She’s 2005 Cameron, and has Gove standing next to her.
    It may be that the timetable works against her. If we had a week before the first vote, and some debates, I could see her building momentum in a similar way that Cameron did. However the lightning fast pace of the contest doesn’t give her time to build a following.

    Are there any hustings before the first ballot, does anyone know?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    I'd love it if he set up his own party and then got hammered in the polls. The lying little git can't be humiliated too much IMO.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    There will always be some PBers that it will be good to take aim at over their expressed undying love for the worst PM of all time. Boris Johnson's resignation could only be topped by seeing Rees-Mogg or Corbyn lose their seat.
    Other than maybe @HYUFD most PBers had had enough of Boris by the end...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    I always thought the same but his refusal to promptly resign last week was worryingly megalomaniacal

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    One theory I've heard is that he'll stand down as an MP by Christmas, so he doesn't have to declare all that extra income then come 2024 he'll put himself forward for a much safer seat for the 2024 GE.

    It allows him to do a chicken run without looking like a chicken run.

    He's a pound shop Churchill, Churchill became PM after losing the Premiership.

    He hasn't spent his entire life just to be PM for three years.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    There will always be some PBers that it will be good to take aim at over their expressed undying love for the worst PM of all time. Boris Johnson's resignation could only be topped by seeing Rees-Mogg or Corbyn lose their seat.
    Other than maybe @HYUFD most PBers had had enough of Boris by the end...
    Yea, but there is @Leon and @BartholomewRoberts who still love him really but pretend to be part of "the herd". I will continue to tease them, just a bit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    And then back in the UK , drafted in to dig the Tories out of the opposition Sunaks disastrous administration led them to.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    How long will that opportunity last? Not sure what BJ's name ID is like in USA but he is NOT a household word. Unlike Tony Blair back in his day.

    Teddy Roosevelt stepped down from Presidency (voluntarily and NOT in disgrace) went big game hunting in Africa, toured Europe with mega-publicity there and in US. Then went on to challenge his hand-picked successor for the Republican nomination, and then the election.

    TR also used the interval to do writing for fun & profit - something that he (like WSC) was very good at. Unlike BJ IMHO.

    EDIT - Plus Boris could depart the House for a (profitable) spell outside, then return via by-election OR general election, pretty much whenever he took the notion. Given ability to cherry-pick seat and quite possibly offer tempting inducements to incumbent Tory MP to step aside?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.

    https://www.british-history.ac.uk/vch/salop/vol11/pp1-19
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,934

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    I'd love it if he set up his own party and then got hammered in the polls. The lying little git can't be humiliated too much IMO.
    The idea as floated the other day is the new PM's government flops before an election and MPs turn back to Boris.
  • If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    This would be pretty funny.

    Looks like we are seeing a disjuncture between pollsters (Opinium/YouGov) and ConHome, the former producing more favourable numbers for Sunak.

    Problem for Sunak is the latter is what is driving discussion in Westminster/on BBC etc.


    https://twitter.com/DrAlanWager/status/1546832363585507328
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    The mood music doesn't seem like just a 30-35% win probability for the Right.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    stodge said:

    Off on a complete tangent for a change.

    As @NickPalmer has probably seen, some interesting developments in Danish politics with the founding of the Denmark Democrats three weeks ago. The obvious parallel is with the Sweden Democrats and their Danish counterparts would win 10.8% in a hypothetical Folketing election.

    They have 4 MPs with defections from the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) who seem to be imploding after their poor Folketing and local election results and serious questions over their leader, Morten Messerschmidt (I kid you not).

    The latest Megafon poll has support for the current four party centre-left Government down from 48% to 46%. After a disastrous spell, Venstre are regaining support and are on 13.1%, just behind the Conservatives on 13.4% It's uncertain whether the Denmark Democrats would support a future centre-right Government.

    No. I missed that- thanks! Danish People's Party now down 7 points on the election and below the threshold for MPs, Denmark Democrats up to 11, taking some from the Social Democrats. Still very even left-right split - will b einteresting to see what further polls show.

    As a rule of thumb, I think most European countries have a hard-right vote of about 10%, which shows up clearly in proportional systems. The AfD in Germany gets around that, and if we had PR in Britain I reckon a far right party would get there (as would a far left party). In some countries like France, you get the far right party moderating slightly and picking up a lot of people who wouldn't call themselves racist, but then finding extremists popping up on their flank (Zemmour)..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    One theory I've heard is that he'll stand down as an MP by Christmas, so he doesn't have to declare all that extra income then come 2024 he'll put himself forward for a much safer seat for the 2024 GE.

    It allows him to do a chicken run without looking like a chicken run.

    He's a pound shop Churchill, Churchill became PM after losing the Premiership.

    He hasn't spent his entire life just to be PM for three years.
    Which local association is going to give him a safe seat, and can he earn enough to keep both the wife and the ex-wife in the ways to which they have become accustomed, in only a couple of years?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Hunt, Braverman and Zahawi are all timewasters.

    I can't see any potential for them to advance.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2022
    Looks like Braverman, Zahawi and Hunt will be the next 3 to leave the race. The only question is how many rounds of voting it takes. A pity they didn't set the bar at 36 instead of 30.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    James O'Brien says goodbye to Boris. Good value as usual!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1lMKFH8Nzk

    Trouble is two you just know that two years from now he will stay be ranting on about him... As will our very own @Scott_xP of course..
    In two years time, Boris might be back in Number 10. That is his hope, anyway.
    He really isn’t Trump. It’ll be the Chiltern Hundreds by the end of September, and off to the US to earn get paid $250k a speech.
    One theory I've heard is that he'll stand down as an MP by Christmas, so he doesn't have to declare all that extra income then come 2024 he'll put himself forward for a much safer seat for the 2024 GE.

    It allows him to do a chicken run without looking like a chicken run.

    He's a pound shop Churchill, Churchill became PM after losing the Premiership.

    He hasn't spent his entire life just to be PM for three years.
    Which local association is going to give him a safe seat, and can he earn enough to keep both the wife and the ex-wife in the ways to which they have become accustomed, in only a couple of years?
    Book advances and some firms pay over £100,000 to listen to Mrs May deliver speeches. I reckon he could earn a few million in 18 months.
  • Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,092

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Yes, because a lazy, narcissistic dishonest incompetent is just what our former colony needs?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    Whoever is last is automatically elimated, as well as anyone failing to get 30.

    8 will probably be 5 by tomorrow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
    No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK

    It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Commiserations. Darn fools, the lot of them (whoever they were).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
    No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK

    It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
    I'm not doing that Leon, I'm pointing out your figures are wrong.

    Just as pointing out that the deranged estimates of 2,000 dead at the Amritsar Massacre are out by a factor of four (the real figure was around 480-500) doesn't diminish the impact of what happened.

    Using the right figures is important as otherwise people will just ignore your posts as hysterical nonsense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Damn.. didn't get the job

    So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping

    Don’t worry too much about it. Have a night off for a few drinks, and get back on the jobhunting tomorrow.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,789
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Honestly, not the dodgiest modelling I've ever come across. Reminds me of Spotlight (the film).

    It does expose a problem - when we have to depend on Leon and his phone calculator to expose how big a problem this might be, something has gone badly wrong.

    A simple question: in what towns/cities has this not yet been exposed? And if it really didn't happen in those, why did it happen in Rotherham (etc)?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2022
    edit
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    If Johnson moves back to New York, can he stand for President in 15 years’ time?

    Not unless he could convince SCOTUS that he qualifies as "natural born citizen" despite renouncing his citizenship?

    AND the American people are in mood to vote for a Benny Hill impersonator. Likely a LOWER bar than above.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Honestly, not the dodgiest modelling I've ever come across.

    It does expose a problem - when we have to depend on Leon and his phone calculator to expose how big a problem this might be, something has gone badly wrong.

    A simple question: in what towns/cities has this not yet been exposed? And if it really didn't happen in those, why did it happen in Rotherham (etc)?
    It certainly happened in Oxford. And is probably still happening
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,761

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    Perhaps Cummings could lend him one of his residences?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited July 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    This struck me from the Telford Report


    "The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.

    "“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/12/over-1000-children-telford-sexually-exploited-inquiry-finds

    1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000

    Let's number crunch

    The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total

    It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing

    Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)

    Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party

    Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.

    Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
    Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
    Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
    Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.

    Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.

    https://www.british-history.ac.uk/vch/salop/vol11/pp1-19
    I'm surprised because whenever I travel through the area I see new housing developments, but appearances can be deceptive. Also, Telford got its own parliamentary constituency for the first time in 1997.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Andy_JS said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    If the bottom two have 30 and 29 votes the latter is the only one to be eliminated. If the bottom two have 29 and 28 votes they're both eliminated.
    Spectator says the rumour is that Rishi lent Hunt support to qualify. So he's literally on life-support.

    Lay.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Sandpit said:

    Will the first round just eliminate those below 30 or also the next lowest?

    Whoever is last is automatically elimated, as well as anyone failing to get 30.

    8 will probably be 5 by tomorrow.
    Presumably Zahawi, Braverman, Hunt out?

    If Nadine is right (I know, I know) then Hunt might get through if Rishi/Williamson are instructing supporters to lend votes.

    I worry for Kemi in the next round, unless she gets another big figure on board.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Don't forget Boris is homeless, literally homeless, in September, as the properties he owns are rented out (and I bet he needs the readies).

    Boris will find someone to put him up.
    Lord Brownlow or Lord Lebedev or Michael Hintze. Someone like that.
This discussion has been closed.