So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
But it is. In their thousands.
I know - both my daughter and wife left the profession a year back.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Well, the only way to do that is to cut class sizes by 60%.
Which would actually be a great idea, but would be a leetle difficult from a financial perspective.
So I suspect she is talking bullshit.
Well indeed. However, there are no obvious attack lines apparently. Apart from she doesn't have a clue what she is talking about here.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I'm sure everyone knows that Telford is an important issue but on a betting site people will be clearly far more interested in the Tory leadership ballot right now.
The thing is, you need to understand that this site is not all about you. You seem to believe that once you have graced us with your presence or posted your latest photo of a bottle of wine on a table somewhere that we are all obliged to start discussing whatever it is you have decided you want to talk about. It doesn't work like that particularly when half the time you are trying to divert conversation towards your anti-woke obsessions.
Er, OK...
I have no more influence on how discussions proceed, than anyone else, it's a conversation
No, you want us all to discuss what you want. On the eve of the first round of voting for the leader you want us all to discuss Telford grooming gangs and the fact that some of don't care to do that means that we don't care about the issue.
I find your discourse flattering. By sheer dint of wit, personality and charm I can force PBers to talk about what I want to talk about
He should have been sacked, this news has cheered me up more than Boris Johnson resigning.
Michael Masi, the former Formula One race director who was at the centre of Lewis Hamilton’s failed bid to win a record eighth world championship, has quit the FIA.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
But it is. In their thousands.
And the really scary thing? I don't know what would realistically attract them back.
(I certainly don't know what would attract me back. Obviously, enough money would, but the amount needed would be the amount that would allow me to stop teaching shortly afterwards, so that doesn't entirely help.
I think it boils down to some combination of more enjoyment, more respect (broadly interpreted) and less exhaustion. It's a tough but important problem, and I don't think anyone is doing the necessary thinking about it.)
I think one thing that is needed is a conversation about what our education system is for. Is it for babysitting, or for education? Because right now it's not doing either particularly well.
Also, smaller class sizes. That reduces workload and stress.
Finally, proper funding and provision for children with complex needs who are at present dumped in the system with no support as deliberate policy, where they are being set up to fail and cause havoc.
But none of them will ever happen. They all cost money and require intelligence.
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
There is something about Sunak that I find cringeworthy. I think it is the Blair-like slickness, the fake sincerity, the focus-grouped inflections and mannerisms.
Yes he’s charismatic. But there’s something a bit - uncanny valley? about him.
He seems to be presenting as an over eager car salesman or perhaps a pushy manager of a mobile phone shop with just a sprinkling of estate agent.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
But it is. In their thousands.
And the really scary thing? I don't know what would realistically attract them back.
(I certainly don't know what would attract me back. Obviously, enough money would, but the amount needed would be the amount that would allow me to stop teaching shortly afterwards, so that doesn't entirely help.
I think it boils down to some combination of more enjoyment, more respect (broadly interpreted) and less exhaustion. It's a tough but important problem, and I don't think anyone is doing the necessary thinking about it.)
Not even Mr Gove? He seems to be regarded grey matter wise as the David Willetts of the modern Tory Party, at least on PB.
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
There is something about Sunak that I find cringeworthy. I think it is the Blair-like slickness, the fake sincerity, the focus-grouped inflections and mannerisms.
Yes he’s charismatic. But there’s something a bit - uncanny valley? about him.
He seems to be presenting as an over eager car salesman or perhaps a pushy manager of a mobile phone shop with just a sprinkling of estate agent.
It says something that everything you've said is true and he's still clearly the best candidate.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
The attack lines will be against her policies not the person.
Ho ho. English Labour dislike the Scottish Labour playbook then?
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I'm sure everyone knows that Telford is an important issue but on a betting site people will be clearly far more interested in the Tory leadership ballot right now.
The thing is, you need to understand that this site is not all about you. You seem to believe that once you have graced us with your presence or posted your latest photo of a bottle of wine on a table somewhere that we are all obliged to start discussing whatever it is you have decided you want to talk about. It doesn't work like that particularly when half the time you are trying to divert conversation towards your anti-woke obsessions.
Er, OK...
I have no more influence on how discussions proceed, than anyone else, it's a conversation
When you are in the mood, it is more of a monologue
Was reading a book just now and it had a quote I quite liked, seemed apposite with some of our revent political travails and some of the problems in our society to boot.
It is in the nature of weak leaders to punish those of lower standing and leave the superiors to flaunt their lack of respect.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
The attack lines will be against her policies not the person.
Ho ho. English Labour dislike the Scottish Labour playbook then?
Wouldn't make sense even then - it's all one party anyway.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Looks about right.
Meanwhile, champagne corks popping in SNP HQ for the whole lot of them.
Wallace was our only (modest) concern.
All of them, except maybe Braverman will likely still poll better than Boris in Scotland, Sunak and Mordaunt and Tugendhat in particular.
Boris' appeal was mainly to Leave voting areas of England and Wales, he did worse in Scotland than May did
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Looks about right.
Meanwhile, champagne corks popping in SNP HQ for the whole lot of them.
Wallace was our only (modest) concern.
All of them, except maybe Braverman will likely still poll better than Boris in Scotland, Sunak and Mordaunt and Tugendhat in particular.
Boris' appeal was mainly to Leave voting areas of England and Wales, he did worse in Scotland than May did
A turd on a stick would probably poll better than Boris in Scotland.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
But it is. In their thousands.
And the really scary thing? I don't know what would realistically attract them back.
(I certainly don't know what would attract me back. Obviously, enough money would, but the amount needed would be the amount that would allow me to stop teaching shortly afterwards, so that doesn't entirely help.
I think it boils down to some combination of more enjoyment, more respect (broadly interpreted) and less exhaustion. It's a tough but important problem, and I don't think anyone is doing the necessary thinking about it.)
I think one thing that is needed is a conversation about what our education system is for. Is it for babysitting, or for education? Because right now it's not doing either particularly well.
Also, smaller class sizes. That reduces workload and stress.
Finally, proper funding and provision for children with complex needs who are at present dumped in the system with no support as deliberate policy, where they are being set up to fail and cause havoc.
But none of them will ever happen. They all cost money and require intelligence.
Important to note. Many of the "superfluous support staff" are there to deal with SEN pupils. To supervise and facilitate their individual learning and social needs. (Peripheral activities). At the expense of "whole class teaching."
To be honest if Kemi Badenoch or any other contenders were all that, they'd be focussing on the cost of living crisis.
It is likely that the energy cap will exceed the JSA/UC amount at some point this year.
That will destroy this government, this will be a winter of discontent moment.
Instead we get banging on about antiwoke and/or following Putin and leaving the ECHR.
That's not going to make people vote Tory when they quite literally facing a choice between heating or buying food.
The less you can do about the problem at hand, the more you have to talk about something else being the real problem.
It's cold calculation behind the contenders' focus, not carelessness.
The party has disintegrated to the extent that it has no coherent plan for the country anymore.
They want to be in favour of low taxes and a balanced budget but increase spending on health, social care, defence and pensions.......its just a fairy tale and I doubt anyone can spin it better than Boris already did.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Looks about right.
Meanwhile, champagne corks popping in SNP HQ for the whole lot of them.
Wallace was our only (modest) concern.
All of them, except maybe Braverman will likely still poll better than Boris in Scotland, Sunak and Mordaunt and Tugendhat in particular.
Boris' appeal was mainly to Leave voting areas of England and Wales, he did worse in Scotland than May did
You sure? You keep telling us Mr Johnson was, sorry is, practically a commie. As for the lot currently under consideration ...
Gotta say, found Rishi's slobbering 'Boris is one of the most remarkable people I've ever met' stuff a bit much.
I get plenty of members like Boris, even after all this, and Sunak himself might, but the man has set his dogs on you, pretty blatantly too, have some dignity and tone it down even if you cannot/will not go after him too much.
There is something about Sunak that I find cringeworthy. I think it is the Blair-like slickness, the fake sincerity, the focus-grouped inflections and mannerisms.
Yes he’s charismatic. But there’s something a bit - uncanny valley? about him.
He seems to be presenting as an over eager car salesman or perhaps a pushy manager of a mobile phone shop with just a sprinkling of estate agent.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
That’s a huge shame - not your personal decision, which is very much your own choice, which I wouldn’t for a moment criticise - but that the system is in such a state that it’s driving away teachers like you.
But it is. In their thousands.
And the really scary thing? I don't know what would realistically attract them back.
(I certainly don't know what would attract me back. Obviously, enough money would, but the amount needed would be the amount that would allow me to stop teaching shortly afterwards, so that doesn't entirely help.
I think it boils down to some combination of more enjoyment, more respect (broadly interpreted) and less exhaustion. It's a tough but important problem, and I don't think anyone is doing the necessary thinking about it.)
I think one thing that is needed is a conversation about what our education system is for. Is it for babysitting, or for education? Because right now it's not doing either particularly well.
Also, smaller class sizes. That reduces workload and stress.
Finally, proper funding and provision for children with complex needs who are at present dumped in the system with no support as deliberate policy, where they are being set up to fail and cause havoc.
But none of them will ever happen. They all cost money and require intelligence.
Important to note. Many of the "superfluous support staff" are there to deal with SEN pupils. To supervise and facilitate their individual learning and social needs. (Peripheral activities). At the expense of "whole class teaching."
Maybe she means the DfE? In which case I have a modest proposal involving a Great New British Space Program.
To be honest if Kemi Badenoch or any other contenders were all that, they'd be focussing on the cost of living crisis.
It is likely that the energy cap will exceed the JSA/UC amount at some point this year.
That will destroy this government, this will be a winter of discontent moment.
Instead we get banging on about antiwoke and/or following Putin and leaving the ECHR.
That's not going to make people vote Tory when they are quite literally facing a choice between heating or buying food.
If you believe the alarmist press people are already facing that choice. At a time when no one has their heating on...
I recently renewed the gas contract for some family friends, I was shocked at the prices.
Because of the way the energy companies work, the cheapest tariffs are the one which you have to pay on direct debit and they insist on averaging out the 12 month anticipated use so they will start paying the higher price/payments from July 28th.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Leo I of Cornwall, Leo II of Hereford, Leo III of Camden, Leo IV of Pentonville (?), Leon V of Wick, Leon VI of Tuscumbia, Leon VII of Kotor, etc., etc. - Overlord of All the Leons
The reality is that on current trajectory the new leader has to not be Boris Johnson who won the Red Wall but also not be Cameron or any other previous Tory leader who didn't and somehow make Starmer do as badly as Corbyn did there.
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Leo I of Cornwall, Leo II of Hereford, Leo III of Camden, Leo IV of Pentonville (?), Leon V of Wick, Leon VI of Tuscumbia, Leon VII of Kotor, etc., etc. - Overlord of All the Leons
To be honest if Kemi Badenoch or any other contenders were all that, they'd be focussing on the cost of living crisis.
It is likely that the energy cap will exceed the JSA/UC amount at some point this year.
That will destroy this government, this will be a winter of discontent moment.
Instead we get banging on about antiwoke and/or following Putin and leaving the ECHR.
That's not going to make people vote Tory when they are quite literally facing a choice between heating or buying food.
But I am assured that people are happy not to eat and have their children cry as long as their children are safely protected from deviants with dicks going into ladies changing rooms.
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Leo I of Cornwall, Leo II of Hereford, Leo III of Camden, Leo IV of Pentonville (?), Leon V of Wick, Leon VI of Tuscumbia, Leon VII of Kotor, etc., etc. - Overlord of All the Leons
Leon Greyjoy…
Modern answer to the Black Prince? (More like Edward the Confessor!)
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Cruel of you to share-but-not-share that teaser with us, if I may say so.
She said 'delicious' gossip - have they been having orgies in a vat of tiramisu?
The reality is that on current trajectory the new leader has to not be Boris Johnson who won the Red Wall but also not be Cameron or any other previous Tory leader who didn't and somehow make Starmer do as badly as Corbyn did there.
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
Correct.
Midlands and Wales Lab 41% Con 31% LD 11% Grn 7% PC 4% Ref 4%
North Lab 52% Con 27% LD 9% Grn 5% Ref 5%
(YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
Kemi seems to be a Starmer beater because...she's anti-woke?
I am not sure the Red Wall care about this as much as people think they do.
Depends on how you define "woke". A lot of red wall WWC voters are socially conservative. Many of them *very* socially conservative. They instinctively don't like things that don't fit traditional gender stereotypes. But their kids feel very different, so they aren't reactionary in the main.
People like our foreign correspondent seem obsessed about the Woke threat - how we're all being brainwashed into become trans pansexuals who hate Churchill. That isn't something that most red wall WWC voters even understand. But the basis of anti-woke? Being pro flag, pro our boys (football / soldiers etc), pro lock up criminals? Sure.
The problem for the Tories is that their party members are clueless. And candidates are having to pitch increasingly shrill mentalist positions to win the support of these old duffers. Which will be a problem. Or, they can elect someone like Sunak or Badenoch. And win.
Kemi seems to be a Starmer beater because...she's anti-woke?
I am not sure the Red Wall care about this as much as people think they do.
Depends on how you define "woke". A lot of red wall WWC voters are socially conservative. Many of them *very* socially conservative. They instinctively don't like things that don't fit traditional gender stereotypes. But their kids feel very different, so they aren't reactionary in the main.
People like our foreign correspondent seem obsessed about the Woke threat - how we're all being brainwashed into become trans pansexuals who hate Churchill. That isn't something that most red wall WWC voters even understand. But the basis of anti-woke? Being pro flag, pro our boys (football / soldiers etc), pro lock up criminals? Sure.
The problem for the Tories is that their party members are clueless. And candidates are having to pitch increasingly shrill mentalist positions to win the support of these old duffers. Which will be a problem. Or, they can elect someone like Sunak or Badenoch. And win.
Labour under Starmer operates in this space. And this is why the Tories are in trouble. This has Blair written all over it - which makes sense as he's advising them.
I think they will not win a majority whoever they choose. They've had their time.
Blackford and Starmer in talks to try to demand an emergency debate via the Speaker.
The Sky news article doesn't make it clear whether it is a debate to condemn Boris for stopping the no confidence motion from being debated or just to condemn Boris more generally.
But there doesn't appear to be a move to table a proper VONC motion...
So what is stopping Starmer from doing this very straightforward thing?
That's the Telegraph, not the Morning Star. Tbh the article is not up to much. Can you say clickbait?
But we always come back to the problem:
How do you define a school run by a not-for-profit foundation as not a charity, without clobbering many other educational charities that really do need that extra income?
It is not nearly as easy as people like to think, which is why it's never been done.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Well, the only way to do that is to cut class sizes by 60%.
Which would actually be a great idea, but would be a leetle difficult from a financial perspective.
So I suspect she is talking bullshit.
Well indeed. However, there are no obvious attack lines apparently. Apart from she doesn't have a clue what she is talking about here.
Kemi is running against the current Conservative government, not against Labour. The micro-interventions she complains of are the government's (especially Rishi's) Covid and cost of living payments. Her dislike of TAs in schools is a swipe at Zahawi. Of course, it has been done before; Boris ran against the Cameron and May governments.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
I don't think it's stupid at all. It is clear that a lot of what is considered essential in education these days is highly peripheral to the actual process of getting knowledge into kids. We have stupid electronic whiteboards and the like because we can, not because education was deficient without them.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
I don't think it's stupid at all. It is clear that a lot of what is considered essential in education these days is highly peripheral to the actual process of getting knowledge into kids. We have stupid electronic whiteboards and the like because we can, not because education was deficient without them.
You tell them Kemi.
Sounds like you are an expert pal. How long have you been teaching?
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
I've just come back from watching a brilliant musical production at our kids' school. You could see how much the kids involved had got out of it. Presumably this is the kind of "peripheral activity" that will be cut from the budget ("scarce resources" being the result of tax cuts for the rich). Sickening, brain-dead stuff from the new Tory messiah.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
I don't think it's stupid at all. It is clear that a lot of what is considered essential in education these days is highly peripheral to the actual process of getting knowledge into kids. We have stupid electronic whiteboards and the like because we can, not because education was deficient without them.
You tell them Kemi.
At this point, I should note that I have never had a working 'electronic whiteboard' (smart board) in a classroom in all my years in teaching, with the exception of three months at Caldicot. Even there I had to get it set up as nobody else was using it.
As a nation, we are awful at integrating tech into education, made worse by the thoroughly reactionary attitude of the DfE who still seem to regret the loss of quill pens.
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Cruel of you to share-but-not-share that teaser with us, if I may say so.
She said 'delicious' gossip - have they been having orgies in a vat of tiramisu?
Given source, could well be that her MP has been fertilizing HIS roses with his own nightsoil.
Not something average politico would relish seeing in the papers OR bandied about on PB!
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
The Jack W Crystal Balls - Bollocks & Brilliance In Abundance :
Round 1 - Exit- Badenoch Braverman Zahawi - Under 30.
Round 2 Exit - Hunt Truss - Last and insufficient support to continue.
Round 3 Exit - Tugenhat
Sunak and Mordaunt proceed to member ballot.
Mordaunt Wins.
Mordaunt struggles to solve the economic storm and is blown off course by a disgruntled party.
Starmer Wins.
He'd have to offer some solutions of his own to do that. Other than look at her mistakes and say 'I wouldn't have done it like that'.
Not necessarily.
Thatcher had to offer solutions of her own to the economic ills of the time. Blair didn't have to offer solutions of his own - not being the Tories was enough, but he took over in highly prosperous times.
The Jack W Crystal Balls - Bollocks & Brilliance In Abundance :
Round 1 - Exit- Badenoch Braverman Zahawi - Under 30.
Round 2 Exit - Hunt Truss - Last and insufficient support to continue.
Round 3 Exit - Tugenhat
Sunak and Mordaunt proceed to member ballot.
Mordaunt Wins.
Mordaunt struggles to solve the economic storm and is blown off course by a disgruntled party.
Starmer Wins.
He'd have to offer some solutions of his own to do that. Other than look at her mistakes and say 'I wouldn't have done it like that'.
Not necessarily.
Thatcher had to offer solutions of her own to the economic ills of the time. Blair didn't have to offer solutions of his own - not being the Tories was enough, but he took over in highly prosperous times.
Blair took over because the Tories stank of corruption, were out of ideas and were overseeing society collapse, with the NHS on its knees and schools with roofs that were falling in.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
How do you see anyone leading the Tories to a 100 seat majority given the economy? Genuinely interested.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
I don't think it's stupid at all. It is clear that a lot of what is considered essential in education these days is highly peripheral to the actual process of getting knowledge into kids. We have stupid electronic whiteboards and the like because we can, not because education was deficient without them.
You tell them Kemi.
I am sorry but if this is Kemi's policy it is daft.
I am Chair of Trustees of a primary school. When Covid hit the investment the school had made into measures such as these really helped us continue providing a good education to our children remotely, as the results in 2020 and 2021 showed. There are lots of ways of getting knowledge into kids and giving them skills and they are usually different to how we did it when we were children.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
The suggestion is that it was not worded in a technically correct manner, so while it is valid, it is not required to be given priority.
Be that right or wrong, Labour could submit a plainer version which would satisfy that excuse to avoid it, if they wanted.
I suspect both prefer it this way - a row about a VONC without even needing to have the VONC.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
It has already been explained many times
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Only 6 more weeks to go, have strength!
Even Penny has gone down now in my estimation. Are any of these people not useless
No.
Then perhaps we should just accept this period of Government is over and much like in 2010 when it became clear things were over about three years before, perhaps that is where we are now.
Nobody seems to want to say it but maybe it's just time up for the Tories. Maybe they aren't destined to win again and Starmer will win a big majority. We seem to discount this because Labour but the evidence is right there for all to see.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
Because Labour tried to be clever and amend the wording adding a conditional clause. Theyve been offered the chance to have a standwtd VONC at their earliest convenience but they dont appear tp want that.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
I don't think it's stupid at all. It is clear that a lot of what is considered essential in education these days is highly peripheral to the actual process of getting knowledge into kids. We have stupid electronic whiteboards and the like because we can, not because education was deficient without them.
You tell them Kemi.
I am sorry but if this is Kemi's policy it is daft.
I am Chair of Trustees of a primary school. When Covid hit the investment the school had made into measures such as these really helped us continue providing a good education to our children remotely, as the results in 2020 and 2021 showed. There are lots of ways of getting knowledge into kids and giving them skills and they are usually different to how we did it when we were children.
It shows that Kemi is a muppet who is showing herself up already, wading into debates and areas she knows nothing about.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Only 6 more weeks to go, have strength!
Even Penny has gone down now in my estimation. Are any of these people not useless
No.
Then perhaps we should just accept this period of Government is over and much like in 2010 when it became clear things were over about three years before, perhaps that is where we are now.
Nobody seems to want to say it but maybe it's just time up for the Tories. Maybe they aren't destined to win again and Starmer will win a big majority. We seem to discount this because Labour but the evidence is right there for all to see.
Or maybe we’re not.
The fact of the matter is we just can’t know. We can try and predict but governments have come back from periods of unpopularity and they will do so again.
I suspect a hung Parliament is by far the most likely result for the next election - but the leadership change is a big unknown.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Comments
Best wishes for your future endeavours,
However, there are no obvious attack lines apparently.
Apart from she doesn't have a clue what she is talking about here.
Ta
Michael Masi, the former Formula One race director who was at the centre of Lewis Hamilton’s failed bid to win a record eighth world championship, has quit the FIA.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/12/formula-one-f1-michael-masi-leaves-fia?CMP=share_btn_tw
Also, smaller class sizes. That reduces workload and stress.
Finally, proper funding and provision for children with complex needs who are at present dumped in the system with no support as deliberate policy, where they are being set up to fail and cause havoc.
But none of them will ever happen. They all cost money and require intelligence.
Why I'm not inundated with offers to design and plant all your gardens I do not know. Ungrateful lot you are.
It is in the nature of weak leaders to punish those of lower standing and leave the superiors to flaunt their lack of respect.
It quite dispirited me.
It is likely that the energy cap will exceed the JSA/UC amount at some point this year.
That will destroy this government, this will be a winter of discontent moment.
Instead we get banging on about antiwoke and/or following Putin and leaving the ECHR.
That's not going to make people vote Tory when they are quite literally facing a choice between heating or buying food.
It’s nearly as incongruous as Swingback King Crosby turning out to be a filthy big Holocaust denier.
It's cold calculation behind the contenders' focus, not carelessness.
Boris' appeal was mainly to Leave voting areas of England and Wales, he did worse in Scotland than May did
At the expense of "whole class teaching."
They want to be in favour of low taxes and a balanced budget but increase spending on health, social care, defence and pensions.......its just a fairy tale and I doubt anyone can spin it better than Boris already did.
Nice flowers.
3 Rishi Sunak 33%
3.05 Penny Mordaunt 32%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
15.5 Kemi Badenoch 6%
26 Tom Tugendhat
48 Jeremy Hunt
70 Suella Braverman
80 Nadhim Zahawi
200 Sajid Javid
250 Dominic Raab
Edit: also some spreading of bills across quarters, given it was quite a cool May.
But I flirt with and gently tease quite a few of you.
Tho' I'm not fond of people calling others "Turd".
I am not sure the Red Wall care about this as much as people think they do.
Because of the way the energy companies work, the cheapest tariffs are the one which you have to pay on direct debit and they insist on averaging out the 12 month anticipated use so they will start paying the higher price/payments from July 28th.
So yes, people are already facing that choice.
They could use the same column inches to help people prepare or seek assistance.
Scaring people helps no-one
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
Never mind cutting taxes, they'll need to be hiking them wholesale before long.
Keir Starmer has indicated he would like to remove the charitable status of public schools – and he’s spot on
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/07/12/private-education-has-corrupted-country/ (£££)
That's the Telegraph, not the Morning Star. Tbh the article is not up to much. Can you say clickbait?
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1546954895357628417?t=y_mRU7J3mZI6bIBARH-lAw&s=19
Wheras Theresa May is more Lands End or (really old-school) Spiegel catalog
EDIT - Think Penny Mordaunt (from what little I've seen) is similar to TM on fashion front?
AND what about other hopefuls? Somewhat but not entirely minor consideration!
Midlands and Wales
Lab 41%
Con 31%
LD 11%
Grn 7%
PC 4%
Ref 4%
North
Lab 52%
Con 27%
LD 9%
Grn 5%
Ref 5%
(YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1,687; Fieldwork: 6-7 July 2022)
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
People like our foreign correspondent seem obsessed about the Woke threat - how we're all being brainwashed into become trans pansexuals who hate Churchill. That isn't something that most red wall WWC voters even understand. But the basis of anti-woke? Being pro flag, pro our boys (football / soldiers etc), pro lock up criminals? Sure.
The problem for the Tories is that their party members are clueless. And candidates are having to pitch increasingly shrill mentalist positions to win the support of these old duffers. Which will be a problem. Or, they can elect someone like Sunak or Badenoch. And win.
I think they will not win a majority whoever they choose. They've had their time.
Have we met? I don't recall you. (Please don't take that the wrong way.)
The Sky news article doesn't make it clear whether it is a debate to condemn Boris for stopping the no confidence motion from being debated or just to condemn Boris more generally.
But there doesn't appear to be a move to table a proper VONC motion...
So what is stopping Starmer from doing this very straightforward thing?
So far it seems to be various Tudors telling each other to fuck off.
How do you define a school run by a not-for-profit foundation as not a charity, without clobbering many other educational charities that really do need that extra income?
It is not nearly as easy as people like to think, which is why it's never been done.
You tell them Kemi.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
"Why?" asked @Leon on the phone incredulously.
"Simple!" Boris's underling replied. "You're not entitled to any..." He paused for effect. "...Statue-Tory Sick Pay!"
I thank you!
https://www.lep.co.uk/news/people/angela-rayner-unveils-statue-to-fellow-ginger-northerner-baroness-barbara-castle-in-lancashire-town-3413482
As a nation, we are awful at integrating tech into education, made worse by the thoroughly reactionary attitude of the DfE who still seem to regret the loss of quill pens.
Not something average politico would relish seeing in the papers OR bandied about on PB!
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1546931094238412800
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Heat. Boredom. Provocation.. etc. 😊
Sound familiar?
I am Chair of Trustees of a primary school. When Covid hit the investment the school had made into measures such as these really helped us continue providing a good education to our children remotely, as the results in 2020 and 2021 showed. There are lots of ways of getting knowledge into kids and giving them skills and they are usually different to how we did it when we were children.
Be that right or wrong, Labour could submit a plainer version which would satisfy that excuse to avoid it, if they wanted.
I suspect both prefer it this way - a row about a VONC without even needing to have the VONC.
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
Nobody seems to want to say it but maybe it's just time up for the Tories. Maybe they aren't destined to win again and Starmer will win a big majority. We seem to discount this because Labour but the evidence is right there for all to see.
This lot are done, I am out.
The fact of the matter is we just can’t know. We can try and predict but governments have come back from periods of unpopularity and they will do so again.
I suspect a hung Parliament is by far the most likely result for the next election - but the leadership change is a big unknown.
It's the Hail Mary play.
She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State.
In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start.
She might even learn some things.