"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Also he specialises in disrupting trials, rather than exposing people who haven't yet been caught.
I thought that was Tommy Robinson.
All these unhinged fascist nutters look the same to me….
So, I grew up in Bedford, which has a very large Muslim population. I went to a state school which drew mostly from the lower income parts of the town. And I'm still friends with a lot of people from the area.
As far as I know, there is no Asian grooming scandal in Bedford. And while I certainly have friends who have been raped, none that I know of were victims of the kind of organized ring that happened in Telford, Rochdale, Rotherham etc.
My guess is that problems occur when the police are unwilling to act because of concerns about "community relations". And this creates a viscous feedback loop: people see that they aren't going to be prosecuted or investigated, which encourages bad behaviour. And the worse the problem gets, the more and more unwilling the police are to act.
There are a lot of very shitty human beings - if they feel they can rape and abuse without consequence then they will.
Sounds right. I was in Nottingham for 13 years - there's a very large Muslim population, but I never heard of any organised rape (and the whole place was a good example of intercommunal rubbing along - even in the Indo-Pakistan wars people agreed not to transfer them locally). Knfie crime, drugs, yes, though not a Muslim issue particularly. Rape gangs? No.
The reality seems to have been that it was a nasty issue in many post-industrial depressed Northern towns (not in, for instance, Liverpool, Sheffield or Manchester). It does need a proper analysis, but not facile arithmetic extrapolation across everywhere.
There were similar cases in Oxford, Wycombe and Peterborough so not completely a Northern issue.
Sex cases are very difficult to prosecute, particularly when a lot of the victims are young and often don't see themselves as victims.
Bad policing is certainly part of the problem, but also a failure of social services, and of the families and communities of these towns.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Working for the growing home-school community, and private tutoring for 11+ and Oxbridge entrance.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
I know what you are and who you are. You are a racist who thinks giving money to 16 year old Thai girls is doing them a favour as you have written in detail on here mor than once. When someone of a different ethnicity does the same thing you find it disgusting as everyone who has read your posts on here this evening can attest.
I suggest you get back to talking about your travels there's less opportunity for hypocrisy.
You have no idea who I am, I politely suggest you desist
Also, aren't you the tragic, low-watt old fuck that said "Downblousing is OK coz I did it?"
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
The prospect of a Lab majority (326+ seats) remain tiny. More like 20/1.
The chance of a Tory majority are more like 6/4.
Kind of. But Lab Maj definitely not value short of 10/1.
You do need to factor in the possibility that the Tories will be headed by another pisspoor leader by then.
Difficult to think he/she could be more pisspoor than the present incumbent so we have to reckon the Tory core vote will not go below its current level of about 30%. That should be enough, just, to block a Lab Maj.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.
Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.
Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK
It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
I care about this issue. A lot. And have written about it. Here - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/29/two-lessons-learnt/ - for instance, written after the Lambeth report. I could write the same thing and just change the name of the place. If you really want to depress yourself, go to the IICSA website and look at all the reports. It's not just Asian grooming gangs. It's churches and schools and sport and childrens homes. Everywhere.
Safeguarding matters. Or ought to. But it doesn't. We don't care to assess the risk to the vulnerable and even if we do we don't care to do anything about it because it would upset far too many comfortable shibboleths. And so children, mostly but not exclusively girls, are abused in the most hideous ways imaginable.
It is beyond shameful. What was done was evil. And the failure to act by those who stood by when they should have intervened was also evil.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
There will be a big demand for tutoring as kids need to catch up. Likely to be needed too with ongoing teacher shortages and strikes.
I have considered taking the pension, and doing the odd locum. It can be very lucrative in my field. Just not very satisfying churning patients but never any continuity, which is the cornerstone of good medical care. I may just cut my hours.
C4 News views the contest as sounding the death knell for levelling up. I’d suggest Labour commissions a loudspeaker van to travel round the red wall constituencies with John Lydon’s ‘Ever got the feeling you’ve been cheated’ on a loop.
Most of the Tugendhat and Hunt vote will surely switch to Sunak / Mordaunt.
So, if most of the Braverman vote switches to Badenoch it seems there is a chance that Badenoch could get ahead of Truss in the Final 4 - eliminating Truss.
I think it's well under a 50% chance but looking at the numbers it looks distinctly possible.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
Except MPs control the two who could thru to members in tory case.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
@JimmySecUK A screenshot from Dominic Cummings' private Substack, where he advocates forcing Ukraine to cede territory "in the south/east" and advocates no further NATO expansion, ever.
Tory members should know if this man has any involvement in the leadership campaign of any candidate.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Ah, yes, but with Gove the massive neo-con as CX and DPM she’ll be guided to…. oh, wait….
Just been out for a very warm walk in a very humid East London. Plenty of tetchy people about mostly if the horns are any indicator, driving cars.
The Conservative Party leadership hopefuls aren't talking to the likes of me currently - their main audience is their 350 or so colleagues in the Parliamentary Party and once they get through to the membership ballot, the Party members themselves.
Once elected, they may deign to talk to the rest of us - I'm not sure what candidates are trying to do as USPs in the leadership election can be considered anything approaching what they will do in the likely or unlikely event of being elected.
I suspect if the weather forecasts are accurate we will have increasing numbers of hot, tired and tetchy people in London and the South East by the weekend.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
Both Rishi and Penny have hit the 30 declared supporter threshold for the next ballot. None of the others have at this stage.
True enough . . . as far as THAT goes. Declared supporters obviously essential to making the ballot.
However, they do NOT automatically translate into actual VOTES cast via SECRET ballot.
One of the strategies formerly used in US national political conventions, back before first-ballot nominations became the (late 20th-century) norm, was for campaigns of leading contenders to "hold back" some of their support for future ballots.
Generally by casting votes in early roll-calls for "favorite sons" and similar also-rans, so that PROVIDED they held the line with declared supporters (convention votes being public) their candidate would show gains in subsequent ballots. As failure to demonstrate such momentum could (and frequently was) fatal to your hopeful's hopes.
Variant of this was to have some of your delegates cast votes - again when they would NOT be decisive - for you opponent(s). Then you could pull the rug out from under him/them (at least a little) by transferring those votes, either to your own candidate, or to someone else as an electoral parking lot.
Like the late, great Kenny Rodgers said Gotta know when to hold 'em Gotta know when to fold 'em Gotta know when to walk away And when to run
And you never count your money When your sittin' at the table There'll be time enough for countin' When the deal is done
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
You're completely wrong about Griffin. He was - unfortunately - one of the first to bring up Asian/Muslim grooming gangs, LONG before national media. He was secretly recorded by TV and suffered a prosecution for it, but was acquitted
"Rodney Jameson QC, prosecuting, told the jury that Mr Griffin made allegations of paedophile drug rapes by Asian Muslims in Keighley during his speech."
So 8 contenders nominated for the leadership ballot tomorrow but really only Sunak, Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Truss likely in contention.
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.
Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.
Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK
It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
I care about this issue. A lot. And have written about it. Here - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/29/two-lessons-learnt/ - for instance, written after the Lambeth report. I could write the same thing and just change the name of the place. If you really want to depress yourself, go to the IICSA website and look at all the reports. It's not just Asian grooming gangs. It's churches and schools and sport and childrens homes. Everywhere.
Safeguarding matters. Or ought to. But it doesn't. We don't care to assess the risk to the vulnerable and even if we do we don't care to do anything about it because it would upset far too many comfortable shibboleths. And so children, mostly but not exclusively girls, are abused in the most hideous ways imaginable.
It is beyond shameful. What was done was evil. And the failure to act by those who stood by when they should have intervened was also evil.
You should remember we live in a country where the Head of OFSTED, the person who defines safeguarding, not only literally does not know what it is, but says that sexting is not a safeguarding matter, and gives her inspectors orders not to identify themselves in lessons so that if they commit safeguarding breaches they cannot be prosecuted.
To link the two topics, Badenoch could really rock the boat if she called for a judge led national public inquiry like Iraq/hacking, fully televised (might be tricky given the topic). How would the other candidates, and then Labour, respond?
Edit: what a toxic, vicious "wedge issue" that could turn into. Feel a bit bad suggesting it.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
Ann Cryer was the one we should have been listening to over 20 years ago.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
Christina Dalcher @CV_Dalcher Let’s put this out there: No one wants trans people to not exist. No one hates them. The argument is about acknowledging biologically-grounded differences between the sexes, keeping women safe, keeping sports fair, and protecting kids.
So 8 contenders nominated for the leadership ballot tomorrow but really only Sunak, Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Truss likely in contention.
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
You think Tugendhat has enough genuine backers to make Sunak able to try out such a tactic?
C4 News views the contest as sounding the death knell for levelling up. I’d suggest Labour commissions a loudspeaker van to travel round the red wall constituencies with John Lydon’s ‘Ever got the feeling you’ve been cheated’ on a loop.
I think it died months ago when all the rail investment north of birmingham was pulled.
So 8 contenders nominated for the leadership ballot tomorrow but really only Sunak, Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Truss likely in contention.
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
Irrespective of your view on who should be Prime Minister and leader, do you think the 1922 has acted reasonably in imposing the election process which seems to this observer to favour the more senior MPs who would have time to accumulate networks of supporters rather than "newer" candidates?
A number of here seem to like Kemi Badenoch but the process seems designed to prevent her building any momentum against, as you say, Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt or Tugendhat.
As @NickPalmer has probably seen, some interesting developments in Danish politics with the founding of the Denmark Democrats three weeks ago. The obvious parallel is with the Sweden Democrats and their Danish counterparts would win 10.8% in a hypothetical Folketing election.
They have 4 MPs with defections from the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti) who seem to be imploding after their poor Folketing and local election results and serious questions over their leader, Morten Messerschmidt (I kid you not).
The latest Megafon poll has support for the current four party centre-left Government down from 48% to 46%. After a disastrous spell, Venstre are regaining support and are on 13.1%, just behind the Conservatives on 13.4% It's uncertain whether the Denmark Democrats would support a future centre-right Government.
Are you saying Messerschmidt has gone down in flames?
I don't know about that - those chaps were driving Fokkers.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who I reckon Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
Mordant’s Achilles heal is having Sunak, Truss, Patel and an assorted range of interesting characters who feel they would do a better job all ready to undermine her when she inevitably struggles with the current financial crisis. I doubt she has the authority to control them. They will be ready to take over when Penny loses.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
Ann Cryer was the one we should have been listening to over 20 years ago.
There are a couple of Labour heroines in this awful, momentous story. Ann Cryer is one, Sarah Champion is another. Both shunned by their party for speaking out
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Rough trade politics. The relevant voter groups will be asking: which candidate makes it hardest for SKS to win the Tory seats he needs.
In terms of a sane common sense world of social democrats and one nation Tories Hunt stands out a mile as the pick. Well Wm Hill offer him at 66/1.
Why? Lots of reasons. One is that SKS and Hunt would be an easy match for SKS to at least be level. A no score draw every time.
SKS would fare badly with 2 of the eight only. Mordaunt and Kemi. Which is why she is in the running. Dip toe, Don't bet the farm.
Yes, the whole thing is bonkers. And your point is?....
C4 News views the contest as sounding the death knell for levelling up. I’d suggest Labour commissions a loudspeaker van to travel round the red wall constituencies with John Lydon’s ‘Ever got the feeling you’ve been cheated’ on a loop.
I think it died months ago when all the rail investment north of birmingham was pulled.
TBF, that isn't quite true. It's all investment north of Manchester and Nottingham.
Wayne Rooney new manager of DC United. Interesting move.
Not exactly a triumph at Derby County was he?
Very weird take.
He did a decent job as a coach there to be fair to him, in extraordinary circumstances, on any fair measure. That they had 19 points deducted (or whatever it was) is hardly his fault.
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
C4 News views the contest as sounding the death knell for levelling up. I’d suggest Labour commissions a loudspeaker van to travel round the red wall constituencies with John Lydon’s ‘Ever got the feeling you’ve been cheated’ on a loop.
I think it died months ago when all the rail investment north of birmingham was pulled.
C4 News was excellent tonight on the Tory Whack A Mole / Squid Game jamboree. Interesting poll - and a good interview with Ben Houchen, who was very wary of spending cuts and said none of the candidates had demonstrated any interest in northern regeneration.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
Ann Cryer was the one we should have been listening to over 20 years ago.
The classic movie "Rita, Sue and Bob too" in 1987 hinted more than a bit about what was going on.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Could you please not accuse drunks and criminals of being like the DfE?
A chap I row with is a criminal - done his time and out on a tag. He has never dreamed of screwing up the entire eduction system.
Another friend became a hopeless alcoholic, got attacked, suffer brain damage etc. Again, in his wildest moments, he never a manager to the school system.
Some drunks and criminals are upstanding citizens, compared to the DfE.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Shame there's no money in punning, you'd be a billionaire. Awesome natural talent.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
Just been out for a very warm walk in a very humid East London. Plenty of tetchy people about mostly if the horns are any indicator, driving cars.
The Conservative Party leadership hopefuls aren't talking to the likes of me currently - their main audience is their 350 or so colleagues in the Parliamentary Party and once they get through to the membership ballot, the Party members themselves.
Once elected, they may deign to talk to the rest of us - I'm not sure what candidates are trying to do as USPs in the leadership election can be considered anything approaching what they will do in the likely or unlikely event of being elected.
I suspect if the weather forecasts are accurate we will have increasing numbers of hot, tired and tetchy people in London and the South East by the weekend.
All the tetchy people / Where do they all come from?
BTW (also FYI) "tetchy" is a word seldom heard in USA outside of occasional English lit class.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
Ann Cryer was the one we should have been listening to over 20 years ago.
The classic movie "Rita, Sue and Bob too" in 1987 hinted more than a bit about what was going on.
Yes, though rather clearer in the darker source text written by Andrea Dunbar (who dissociated herself from the film).
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Shame there's no money in punning, you'd be a billionaire. Awesome natural talent.
That loud bang you heard from your neighbouring county was @IshmaelZ exploding...
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.
Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.
Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK
It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
I care about this issue. A lot. And have written about it. Here - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/29/two-lessons-learnt/ - for instance, written after the Lambeth report. I could write the same thing and just change the name of the place. If you really want to depress yourself, go to the IICSA website and look at all the reports. It's not just Asian grooming gangs. It's churches and schools and sport and childrens homes. Everywhere.
Safeguarding matters. Or ought to. But it doesn't. We don't care to assess the risk to the vulnerable and even if we do we don't care to do anything about it because it would upset far too many comfortable shibboleths. And so children, mostly but not exclusively girls, are abused in the most hideous ways imaginable.
It is beyond shameful. What was done was evil. And the failure to act by those who stood by when they should have intervened was also evil.
Yes, that's more balanced than some earlier contributions. Although there's a serious issue with Asian grooming gangs, the idea that they are the only source of abuse that vulnerable teenage girls face is nonsense.
Not enough attention is paid to the care system. Most of the victims are in it. They are very vulnerable and badly damaged. And yet our care system is hopeless, both in quality and in funding. Teenagers in children's homes and other care settings are not protected from evil sufficiently. Of course we need to blame the evil predators, but any solution also depends on improving safeguarding, hugely, throughout the care system.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Could you please not accuse drunks and criminals of being like the DfE?
A chap I row with is a criminal - done his time and out on a tag. He has never dreamed of screwing up the entire eduction system.
Another friend became a hopeless alcoholic, got attacked, suffer brain damage etc. Again, in his wildest moments, he never a manager to the school system.
Some drunks and criminals are upstanding citizens, compared to the DfE.
This is very true, and I humbly apologise to @SeanT and all other drunken criminals out there.
Well, my husband has just revealed that he is still a Tory party member. He joined in 2019 to vote "Not Boris".
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Cruel of you to share-but-not-share that teaser with us, if I may say so.
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
She is articulate and straightforward. People might not like what she’s saying but they may respect her for how she says it. I don’t think that’s necessarily a slam dunk.
Not that I think she’ll get it. Truss and Mordaunt are far more likely. And I also have my own concerns about her. But I think it’s easy to dismiss her as a Labour dream when she represents such a change that there is much that would be unknown.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
You could make some easy money by supping with the devil and becoming a part-time Ofsted inspector, doing a few inspections a year.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
I know what you are and who you are. You are a racist who thinks giving money to 16 year old Thai girls is doing them a favour as you have written in detail on here mor than once. When someone of a different ethnicity does the same thing you find it disgusting as everyone who has read your posts on here this evening can attest.
I suggest you get back to talking about your travels there's less opportunity for hypocrisy.
You have no idea who I am, I politely suggest you desist
Also, aren't you the tragic, low-watt old fuck that said "Downblousing is OK coz I did it?"
Everyone and their pet hamster knows who you are you twat.
Just been out for a very warm walk in a very humid East London. Plenty of tetchy people about mostly if the horns are any indicator, driving cars.
The Conservative Party leadership hopefuls aren't talking to the likes of me currently - their main audience is their 350 or so colleagues in the Parliamentary Party and once they get through to the membership ballot, the Party members themselves.
Once elected, they may deign to talk to the rest of us - I'm not sure what candidates are trying to do as USPs in the leadership election can be considered anything approaching what they will do in the likely or unlikely event of being elected.
I suspect if the weather forecasts are accurate we will have increasing numbers of hot, tired and tetchy people in London and the South East by the weekend.
All the tetchy people / Where do they all come from?
BTW (also FYI) "tetchy" is a word seldom heard in USA outside of occasional English lit class.
I didn't realise I had an American audience - "tetchy" is in Romeo & Juliet (that's the one by William Shakespeare, not West Side Story or the film with Leonardo DiCaprio, the proper one) so was probably around when the Iroquois were running the Midwest.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one modest British town. Population 80,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 4%? Roughly the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an average-sized Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 800,000 girls have been abused. Close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Telford is much bigger than 80,000, it's nearer 150,000.
Edit - and it is certainly not typical of 'middle Britain.' It's quite a bit poorer than average and has a much younger population than average. It has also always had high rates of teenage pregnancy.
Apologies, I was counting households, I shall amend
Telford is a New Town so the population would probably have been a lot less 40 years ago than now.
Not really, because it grew very fast to start with in the early 1960s and then stagnated. 20 years ago it was only about 5,000 people smaller than it is now.
Edit - in 1983 it had 108,000 in the town itself.
No matter how you cut it, nothing diminishes the scale and horror of what happened in Telford, nor (after Oldham Rotherham Oxford Rochdale and so many more) the clear implications for what has happened across the UK
It is only matched in scale by the wilful Denial within the UK political classes (across all sides). No one wants to talk about it, no one wants to discuss it, because it is too big and unbearable and because of the consequences for us as a country
I care about this issue. A lot. And have written about it. Here - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/29/two-lessons-learnt/ - for instance, written after the Lambeth report. I could write the same thing and just change the name of the place. If you really want to depress yourself, go to the IICSA website and look at all the reports. It's not just Asian grooming gangs. It's churches and schools and sport and childrens homes. Everywhere.
Safeguarding matters. Or ought to. But it doesn't. We don't care to assess the risk to the vulnerable and even if we do we don't care to do anything about it because it would upset far too many comfortable shibboleths. And so children, mostly but not exclusively girls, are abused in the most hideous ways imaginable.
It is beyond shameful. What was done was evil. And the failure to act by those who stood by when they should have intervened was also evil.
Yes, that's more balanced than some earlier contributions. Although there's a serious issue with Asian grooming gangs, the idea that they are the only source of abuse that vulnerable teenage girls face is nonsense.
Not enough attention is paid to the care system. Most of the victims are in it. They are very vulnerable and badly damaged. And yet our care system is hopeless, both in quality and in funding. Teenagers in children's homes and other care settings are not protected from evil sufficiently. Of course we need to blame the evil predators, but any solution also depends on improving safeguarding, hugely, throughout the care system.
Care homes are a scandal, and a racket for private contractors, with no real attempt at care. We had one near me for a while. Police were there every night, but the company didn't care, just let them run wild and pocketed the cash.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
I know what you are and who you are. You are a racist who thinks giving money to 16 year old Thai girls is doing them a favour as you have written in detail on here mor than once. When someone of a different ethnicity does the same thing you find it disgusting as everyone who has read your posts on here this evening can attest.
I suggest you get back to talking about your travels there's less opportunity for hypocrisy.
You have no idea who I am, I politely suggest you desist
Also, aren't you the tragic, low-watt old fuck that said "Downblousing is OK coz I did it?"
Everyone and their pet hamster knows who you are you twat.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
She is articulate and straightforward. People might not like what she’s saying but they may respect her for how she says it. I don’t think that’s necessarily a slam dunk.
Not that I think she’ll get it. Truss and Mordaunt are far more likely. And I also have my own concerns about her. But I think it’s easy to dismiss her as a Labour dream when she represents such a change that there is much that would be unknown.
Reminds me of Corbyn, a conviction politician with limited appeal beyond her tribe and no experience. Truss and Mordaunt are far better, A cabinet job awaits.
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
Get onto something more frivolous. You are no fun when you go all serious.
I am aware that PB, like the rest of the UK, would really really really rather talk about something - anything - else
I for one salute you, the Nick Griffin of PB.
Yes, it was a total scandal that no-one in authority took Griffin’s accusations seriously.
Just dismiss the man as a racist, while hundreds of thousands of girls get raped.
He was (is) a racist.
He also happened to be right on this one issue.
But because he was a racist and sounded like an unhinged Fascist ranting incessantly about brown people the way he had all his life (due to being an unhinged fascist who ranted incessantly about brown people) he was ignored.
Oh course. But there still should have been someone in authority acting on his pronouncements.
Even if the conclusion is that the guy is a total racist who’s just making up stuff, there would be evidence that the guy was a racist who was making up stuff. Except that he wasn’t making up stuff, he was actually aware of thousands of girls being raped.
Are we talking about Nick Griffin or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson)? Griffin has talked about grooming gangs, but it's Robinson who's focused on them. In both cases, they started talking about grooming gangs AFTER those events had become widely reported.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
Ann Cryer was the one we should have been listening to over 20 years ago.
There are a couple of Labour heroines in this awful, momentous story. Ann Cryer is one, Sarah Champion is another. Both shunned by their party for speaking out
That is quite literally Woke.
And people say it doesn't have real world effects..
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
Not really. Badenoch's interviews and speeches are very compelling.
Her weakness is that she's inexperienced, not that she's bonkers.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Quite a few children (among the families I know) have various problems with the classroom environment and some one-to-one tuition can do astonishing things for their self confidence and education. Please go for it.
As Donald J. Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows that his post-presidential quest to consolidate his support within the Republican Party has instead left him weakened, with nearly half the party’s primary voters seeking someone different for president in 2024 and a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
I wonder if Boris Johnson would ever consider setting up his own party and running his own candidates against Conservative Party candidates - that would be amusing, wouldn't it?
Imagine Kemi Badenoch's 28,000 majority overturned by a Johnson Party (the name needs a lot of work) candidate and the Official Conservatives reduced to fewer than the LDs have now.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
I know what you are and who you are. You are a racist who thinks giving money to 16 year old Thai girls is doing them a favour as you have written in detail on here mor than once. When someone of a different ethnicity does the same thing you find it disgusting as everyone who has read your posts on here this evening can attest.
I suggest you get back to talking about your travels there's less opportunity for hypocrisy.
You have no idea who I am, I politely suggest you desist
Also, aren't you the tragic, low-watt old fuck that said "Downblousing is OK coz I did it?"
Everyone and their pet hamster knows who you are you twat.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
You could make some easy money by supping with the devil and becoming a part-time Ofsted inspector, doing a few inspections a year.
"The inquiry confirms the findings of a Sunday Mirror investigation in 2018 that reported up to 1,000 children in the town may have been victims of child sexual exploitation over 40 years.
"“The extent to which that estimate was accurate has been the subject of debate in Telford,” Crowther said. “I have come to the conclusion that the Sunday Mirror’s estimate is an entirely measured, reasonable and nonsensational assessment.”"
1000 girls over 40 years. And this is just one fairly modest British town. Population 150,000
Let's number crunch
The Muslim population of Telford is 3,000, so about 2%? Less than half the national average of Muslims in proportion to the total
It is estimated that 300 perps are involved in this vile Telford abuse. That means 10% of Telford's Muslim population, 20% of men, 25-30% of male adults, were involved? Mind boggling at first glance. However this was spread over many decades, so it's more like 5% of adult males at any one time, at a very very rough guess (perhaps a better numbergeek can help). Still, 1 in 20 (if these numbers are right, but they make sense if 1000+ girls were abused). Astonishing
Zoom out. 1000 girls abused over 40 years in a town with an half-the-average Muslim population. That means we can read across nationally. Telford is quite representative of the UK as a whole. It is Middle Britain in multiple ways (is is neither north nor south, it is Tory now but it was Labour in 2010)
Telford, if it has been repeated across the UK (and we have seen near-identical patterns in Oldham , Rochdale, Derby, Rotherham, and others) suggests about 400,000 girls have been abused, yet multiply by twice if you factor in the average Muslim population. That is to say, close to Labour MP Sarah Champion's estimate: of "one million girls" which she published in the Sun and the Mirror, and which got her exiled by the Labour Party
For someone who by their own testimony abused girls in Bangkok this shouldn't be a great subject for you. If you think those 16 year olds enjoyed earning money having sex with you well into your 40's ad 50's I think you're deluded.
You have no idea who I am so I suggest you desist
I know what you are and who you are. You are a racist who thinks giving money to 16 year old Thai girls is doing them a favour as you have written in detail on here mor than once. When someone of a different ethnicity does the same thing you find it disgusting as everyone who has read your posts on here this evening can attest.
I suggest you get back to talking about your travels there's less opportunity for hypocrisy.
You have no idea who I am, I politely suggest you desist
Also, aren't you the tragic, low-watt old fuck that said "Downblousing is OK coz I did it?"
Everyone and their pet hamster knows who you are you twat.
So I'm now drowning my sorrows in cans of Sipsmith G&T. It's rather nice and 7.3% ABV; it's definitely helping
Sorry to hear this.
If it's any consolation I went for a job interview last Thursday and didn't get it either - annoyingly, because they had already got an internal candidate lined up.
Better things on the way for you both!
Well, in my case the odds are it will be self-employment, which is what I was planning to do anyway. This would have been a very nice job and more secure than that, plus it would have made certain family problems slightly easier to manage, but losing it is hardly the end of the world.
Bluntly, with cash in the bank, a business I can grow, and a house with no mortgage I am in the very fortunate position of being able to do whatever the hell I like. There are a great many people very much worse off than me, whatever happens next. Starting with my colleagues who are looking in appalled disbelief at the brewing shitstorm in education.
So no longer teaching in the new school year? Or doing supply?
I understand why people vote with their feet though.
No. Had enough. Didn't need to go on, and decided after the appalling way I and the teaching profession have been treated in the last five years, of which the disastrous Covid policy was just the tip of the boil, I didn't want to. Who would, ultimately, want to work for drunks and criminals like the DfE for ridiculous hours and mindless abuse from large numbers of idiots?
So - tutoring, probably. If not, writing and music. Was thinking of starting a podcast series - not much money in it but it would be quite fun.
Teaching loses a good teacher, but good luck .
Why thank you.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
I take it sacking all the support staff to focus on "core teaching" isn't one that would encourage you?
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think Labour would be concerned about Badenoch because she is an unknown quantity and therefore more difficult to build attack lines against and to define initially. After that, who knows? It is a roll of the dice and she could do very well or otherwise could fail miserably.
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
To attack Badenoch, you would play a video of Badenoch.
She is articulate and straightforward. People might not like what she’s saying but they may respect her for how she says it. I don’t think that’s necessarily a slam dunk.
Not that I think she’ll get it. Truss and Mordaunt are far more likely. And I also have my own concerns about her. But I think it’s easy to dismiss her as a Labour dream when she represents such a change that there is much that would be unknown.
Reminds me of Corbyn, a conviction politician with limited appeal beyond her tribe and no experience. Truss and Mordaunt are far better, A cabinet job awaits.
I seem to remember Corbyn did rather well in 2017 against the odds…. Not quite as well as is sometimes suggested, but perhaps he did have some appeal before he got mired in controversy and the Brexit debate?
So 8 contenders nominated for the leadership ballot tomorrow but really only Sunak, Mordaunt, Tugendhat and Truss likely in contention.
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
Irrespective of your view on who should be Prime Minister and leader, do you think the 1922 has acted reasonably in imposing the election process which seems to this observer to favour the more senior MPs who would have time to accumulate networks of supporters rather than "newer" candidates?
A number of here seem to like Kemi Badenoch but the process seems designed to prevent her building any momentum against, as you say, Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt or Tugendhat.
In terms of selecting a PM who has to be ready to run the country as soon as this election is over, no.
If we were selecting a Leader of the Opposition with time to grow into the role maybe but we aren't
Comments
Sex cases are very difficult to prosecute, particularly when a lot of the victims are young and often don't see themselves as victims.
Bad policing is certainly part of the problem, but also a failure of social services, and of the families and communities of these towns.
Five in court in Nottingham facing 36 child grooming charges
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-50333707
39 years in prison for two members of grooming gang who raped 14-year-old in Sherwood Forest
https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/uk-world-news/39-years-prison-two-members-2229096
Tories crap.
Labour crap.
The big unknown is the Lib Dems in southern England. My suspicion is that they’ll gravely underperform, as per usual. But you never know…
Also, aren't you the tragic, low-watt old fuck that said "Downblousing is OK coz I did it?"
Otherwise people will simply argue she's a denier and I don't think there's much of a market for that in the UK.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
So yes, 4.5 is way too low.
Interesting move.
Safeguarding matters. Or ought to. But it doesn't. We don't care to assess the risk to the vulnerable and even if we do we don't care to do anything about it because it would upset far too many comfortable shibboleths. And so children, mostly but not exclusively girls, are abused in the most hideous ways imaginable.
It is beyond shameful. What was done was evil. And the failure to act by those who stood by when they should have intervened was also evil.
I have considered taking the pension, and doing the odd locum. It can be very lucrative in my field. Just not very satisfying churning patients but never any continuity, which is the cornerstone of good medical care. I may just cut my hours.
So, if most of the Braverman vote switches to Badenoch it seems there is a chance that Badenoch could get ahead of Truss in the Final 4 - eliminating Truss.
I think it's well under a 50% chance but looking at the numbers it looks distinctly possible.
Corbyn just needed 30 MPs from memory.
Quite significant in this fairly illiquid market.
I am a little surprised how little overall cash is being traded. I expected a more active betting market for this.
I'm not aware of either having made accusations that were ignored. They have campaigned on the issue after the fact. They didn't uncover anything. If you know otherwise, please do fill me in, but at the moment you appear to be lauding Griffin and/or Robinson for something they didn't do.
Let's talk about some things Robinson did do. Calling him a racist or a fascist is only the start. Robinson has been found guilty of actual bodily harm against a police officer (for which he was sentenced to a year in prison), assaulting another man (12 weeks suspended), using a false passport (10 months), mortgage fraud (18 months), stalking and contempt of court. He's not just unhinged: he's a violent criminal.
I strongly suspect this is happening everywhere, even Bedford (not far from Luton) despite @rcs1000 well-meaning protestations
eg Worcester
https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/17809758.worcester-grooming-victim-cant-name-abusers/
And elsewhere
"Some estimate that grooming gangs operate in 73 towns, from Plymouth to Liverpool, from Cambridge to Glasgow."
https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2019-05-14/debates/349FA275-CB65-45C0-87C7-EE16D1FD1B0A/GroomingGangs
The Conservative Party leadership hopefuls aren't talking to the likes of me currently - their main audience is their 350 or so colleagues in the Parliamentary Party and once they get through to the membership ballot, the Party members themselves.
Once elected, they may deign to talk to the rest of us - I'm not sure what candidates are trying to do as USPs in the leadership election can be considered anything approaching what they will do in the likely or unlikely event of being elected.
I suspect if the weather forecasts are accurate we will have increasing numbers of hot, tired and tetchy people in London and the South East by the weekend.
I may not be lost for ever. But a great many things will have to change in a great many ways before I consider going back.
However, they do NOT automatically translate into actual VOTES cast via SECRET ballot.
One of the strategies formerly used in US national political conventions, back before first-ballot nominations became the (late 20th-century) norm, was for campaigns of leading contenders to "hold back" some of their support for future ballots.
Generally by casting votes in early roll-calls for "favorite sons" and similar also-rans, so that PROVIDED they held the line with declared supporters (convention votes being public) their candidate would show gains in subsequent ballots. As failure to demonstrate such momentum could (and frequently was) fatal to your hopeful's hopes.
Variant of this was to have some of your delegates cast votes - again when they would NOT be decisive - for you opponent(s). Then you could pull the rug out from under him/them (at least a little) by transferring those votes, either to your own candidate, or to someone else as an electoral parking lot.
Like the late, great Kenny Rodgers said
Gotta know when to hold 'em
Gotta know when to fold 'em
Gotta know when to walk away
And when to run
And you never count your money
When your sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the deal is done
"Rodney Jameson QC, prosecuting, told the jury that Mr Griffin made allegations of paedophile drug rapes by Asian Muslims in Keighley during his speech."
As it turns out, that was all true
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/speeches-by-bnp-leader-led-to-race-hate-charges-1.1003051
If Sunak is clever and has a big enough lead on the first ballot he might 'lend' some of his supporters to Tugendhat in subsequent ballots to knock out Truss and Mordaunt. Then he would face Tugendhat in the membership ballot which would be his best chance of winning it
Another damn good reason to get out of teaching.
Edit: what a toxic, vicious "wedge issue" that could turn into. Feel a bit bad suggesting it.
The first eliminations are tommorow, but we will see too where the momentum builds. Sunak vs Mordaunt in the members vote IMO, with Mordaunt winning.
Christina Dalcher
@CV_Dalcher
Let’s put this out there:
No one wants trans people to not exist. No one hates them.
The argument is about acknowledging biologically-grounded differences between the sexes, keeping women safe, keeping sports fair, and protecting kids.
Why is that so hard to understand?
https://twitter.com/CV_Dalcher/status/1546862446660517890
A number of here seem to like Kemi Badenoch but the process seems designed to prevent her building any momentum against, as you say, Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt or Tugendhat.
In terms of a sane common sense world of social democrats and one nation Tories Hunt stands out a mile as the pick. Well Wm Hill offer him at 66/1.
Why? Lots of reasons. One is that SKS and Hunt would be an easy match for SKS to at least be level. A no score draw every time.
SKS would fare badly with 2 of the eight only. Mordaunt and Kemi.
Which is why she is in the running. Dip toe, Don't bet the farm.
Yes, the whole thing is bonkers. And your point is?....
He did a decent job as a coach there to be fair to him, in extraordinary circumstances, on any fair measure. That they had 19 points deducted (or whatever it was) is hardly his fault.
He has asked me - sensible fellow that he is - who he should vote for, his only firm view being that Suella should not be let out of the house unaided. We have, my friends, a genuine Red Wall Tory. Though not really since he voted Green at the local elections the last time on account of the local Tory candidates being (his words) "completely fucking useless"
Also I learnt some delicious - but completely unrepeatable - gossip about the local MP.
Round 1 - Exit- Badenoch Braverman Zahawi - Under 30.
Round 2 Exit - Hunt Truss - Last and insufficient support to continue.
Round 3 Exit - Tugenhat
Sunak and Mordaunt proceed to member ballot.
Mordaunt Wins.
THEN please fill in the dwarfs:
Bashful =
Doc =
Dopey =
Grumpy =
Happy =
Sleazy =
Sleepy =
I’d be much more relaxed about someone like Truss or Rishi - a known quantity with known and pre-tested attack lines.
Starmer Wins.
A chap I row with is a criminal - done his time and out on a tag. He has never dreamed of screwing up the entire eduction system.
Another friend became a hopeless alcoholic, got attacked, suffer brain damage etc. Again, in his wildest moments, he never a manager to the school system.
Some drunks and criminals are upstanding citizens, compared to the DfE.
BTW (also FYI) "tetchy" is a word seldom heard in USA outside of occasional English lit class.
A standard even more high-prized by PBers than Trafalgar!
With regrets, and much nostalgic fondness, but still. Enough
These places can't be levelled up, so be it. They are, in their waddling obese impoverishment, now determined to return to Labour.... so be it
We draw a line roughly along the frontier of the Danelaw.... and wish you well. If the North kicks up a fuss they can have Gravesend and most of Birmingham. And Tower Hamlets as an enclave for their Embassy. We'll have the Lakes. And we keep Scotland
Sorted
Not enough attention is paid to the care system. Most of the victims are in it. They are very vulnerable and badly damaged. And yet our care system is hopeless, both in quality and in funding. Teenagers in children's homes and other care settings are not protected from evil sufficiently. Of course we need to blame the evil predators, but any solution also depends on improving safeguarding, hugely, throughout the care system.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/us/politics/trump-approval-polling-2024.html
Not that I think she’ll get it. Truss and Mordaunt are far more likely. And I also have my own concerns about her. But I think it’s easy to dismiss her as a Labour dream when she represents such a change that there is much that would be unknown.
Who am I?
And people say it doesn't have real world effects..
However if that happens and the GOP fail to win back both the House and Senate in November I doubt Trump will run again anyway
Her weakness is that she's inexperienced, not that she's bonkers.
Imagine Kemi Badenoch's 28,000 majority overturned by a Johnson Party (the name needs a lot of work) candidate and the Official Conservatives reduced to fewer than the LDs have now.
Close?
If we were selecting a Leader of the Opposition with time to grow into the role maybe but we aren't