We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Only 6 more weeks to go, have strength!
Even Penny has gone down now in my estimation. Are any of these people not useless
No.
Then perhaps we should just accept this period of Government is over and much like in 2010 when it became clear things were over about three years before, perhaps that is where we are now.
Nobody seems to want to say it but maybe it's just time up for the Tories. Maybe they aren't destined to win again and Starmer will win a big majority. We seem to discount this because Labour but the evidence is right there for all to see.
Or maybe we’re not.
The fact of the matter is we just can’t know. We can try and predict but governments have come back from periods of unpopularity and they will do so again.
I suspect a hung Parliament is by far the most likely result for the next election - but the leadership change is a big unknown.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Let's face Penny, she seems to enjoy bringing up Brexit which I am sure the public want to keep hearing about.
This lot are done, I am out.
The voters in the leadership contest, should she get into the final two, think remainer plots are everywhere, even from longstanding leave supporters. Reassuring them they are not part of such a plot will probably figure in all the campaigns.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Only 6 more weeks to go, have strength!
Even Penny has gone down now in my estimation. Are any of these people not useless
No.
Then perhaps we should just accept this period of Government is over and much like in 2010 when it became clear things were over about three years before, perhaps that is where we are now.
Nobody seems to want to say it but maybe it's just time up for the Tories. Maybe they aren't destined to win again and Starmer will win a big majority. We seem to discount this because Labour but the evidence is right there for all to see.
Or maybe we’re not.
The fact of the matter is we just can’t know. We can try and predict but governments have come back from periods of unpopularity and they will do so again.
I suspect a hung Parliament is by far the most likely result for the next election - but the leadership change is a big unknown.
I think very few were saying in 2010 that Labour was going to win again.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
The reality is that on current trajectory the new leader has to not be Boris Johnson who won the Red Wall but also not be Cameron or any other previous Tory leader who didn't and somehow make Starmer do as badly as Corbyn did there.
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
If the Tories lose the redwall seats Boris won from Labour, unless they regain seats in Scotland or the Remain seats Cameron won that are now Labour or LD then they lose their majority, even if they resolve CoL
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
I think you think these are important issues and so you suggest the public do too. I as usual completely disagree with you.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
I think you think these are important issues and so you suggest the public do too. I as usual completely disagree with you.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
I've just come back from watching a brilliant musical production at our kids' school. You could see how much the kids involved had got out of it. Presumably this is the kind of "peripheral activity" that will be cut from the budget ("scarce resources" being the result of tax cuts for the rich). Sickening, brain-dead stuff from the new Tory messiah.
Of course it’s bullshit, but it doesn’t matter. She’s pandering to the perception the Tory membership have of how education is delivered. She’s sufficiently vague to appeal to almost everyone who matters.
@ydoethur. Here is the quote from the Badenoch launch. Scripted. Not off the cuff.
"We must require schools to concentrate on effective whole-class teaching of rigorous subjects rather than allocating tight resources to superfluous support staff and peripheral activities."
Seems she's got her eye on group work. And differentiated activities, too.
Christ, is she really that dumb?
It speaks so badly about the people cheering for her.
I don't think it's stupid at all. It is clear that a lot of what is considered essential in education these days is highly peripheral to the actual process of getting knowledge into kids. We have stupid electronic whiteboards and the like because we can, not because education was deficient without them.
You tell them Kemi.
I am sorry but if this is Kemi's policy it is daft.
I am Chair of Trustees of a primary school. When Covid hit the investment the school had made into measures such as these really helped us continue providing a good education to our children remotely, as the results in 2020 and 2021 showed. There are lots of ways of getting knowledge into kids and giving them skills and they are usually different to how we did it when we were children.
There are, but they are not necessarily any more effective.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
Due to having fessed up to suffering from excessive boredom during Lockdown, PB's resident flint-knapper @Leon was commissioned by CCHQ to knap the perfect sculpture of Boris Johnson! Finally able to take a break from knapping strangely shaped sex-toys, he accepted the work in a heartbeat, and got to sculpting the same day. Arduous work, but he felt that, over the course of several weeks of almost continuous knapping, that he got it almost completely spot on with just a little bit more required.
However, @Leon had found that he had knapped so meticulously that his hands were thoroughly knackered and sore. He wondered about taking some time off in order to finish off his masterpiece at a later date. Boris's office phoned him back reasonably promptly, but to @Leon's horror, he was told in no uncertain terms that he would lose his fee if he stopped work!
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
Time for a change will be Labour's biggest asset. And, tbh, despite my reservations about Labour, it is certainly time for the Tories to take a break, a good long hard look at themselves and the country they aspire to run and work out what they are for.
Let's face Penny, she seems to enjoy bringing up Brexit which I am sure the public want to keep hearing about.
This lot are done, I am out.
You were praising Keirs brexit policy and how he was 'spot on' earlier when you linked to the Red Wall poll showing 69% think Brexit is unfinished business. So, yep, they do want to hear about it
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Looks about right.
Meanwhile, champagne corks popping in SNP HQ for the whole lot of them.
Wallace was our only (modest) concern.
All of them, except maybe Braverman will likely still poll better than Boris in Scotland, Sunak and Mordaunt and Tugendhat in particular.
Boris' appeal was mainly to Leave voting areas of England and Wales, he did worse in Scotland than May did
You sure? You keep telling us Mr Johnson was, sorry is, practically a commie. As for the lot currently under consideration ...
In the 1992 general election Major lost 40 seats UK wide but actually gained a seat in Scotland compared to what Thatcher won in 1987.
In 2017 May gained seats in Scotland but lost them in England and Wales. In 2010 Brown lost no seats in Scotland but lost 91 seats UK wide. Scotland often acts differently to England at UK general elections in terms of swing
Let's face Penny, she seems to enjoy bringing up Brexit which I am sure the public want to keep hearing about.
This lot are done, I am out.
You were praising Keirs brexit policy and how he was 'spot on' earlier when you linked to the Red Wall poll showing 69% think Brexit is unfinished business. So, yep, they do want to hear about it
I think Keir's policy is good - but I think the public do not want to keep hearing about Brexit from the party that claims it has delivered it and it is done.
I think these two things are not contradictory but you may disagree.
But it all shows Labour stance is tear down statues they don’t like, but put up statues of divisive figures they do like, even on the same plinth, doesn’t it?
Change all the statues after election win in much same way change head of BBC or appoint your own BoE chief once in power?
Here's an interesting stat every time you hear about the cost of living crisis:
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
The Jack W Crystal Balls - Bollocks & Brilliance In Abundance :
Round 1 - Exit- Badenoch Braverman Zahawi - Under 30.
Round 2 Exit - Hunt Truss - Last and insufficient support to continue.
Round 3 Exit - Tugenhat
Sunak and Mordaunt proceed to member ballot.
Mordaunt Wins.
Mordaunt struggles to solve the economic storm and is blown off course by a disgruntled party.
Starmer Wins.
He'd have to offer some solutions of his own to do that. Other than look at her mistakes and say 'I wouldn't have done it like that'.
Not necessarily.
Thatcher had to offer solutions of her own to the economic ills of the time. Blair didn't have to offer solutions of his own - not being the Tories was enough, but he took over in highly prosperous times.
Blair took over because the Tories stank of corruption, were out of ideas and were overseeing society collapse, with the NHS on its knees and schools with roofs that were falling in.
Sound familiar?
No, certainly not familiar with the 1997 that I experienced.
I've been watching Becoming Elizabeth on Starzplay.
So far it seems to be various Tudors telling each other to fuck off.
I’ve just finished season 3 of The Boys on Amazon.
Graphic violence, foul language (OGH would issue Butcher a lifetime ban), and more than occasional nudity - but excellent, and rather chilling political satire.
Right so thanks to the wonders of twitter I have now been sent @OpiniumResearch polling data of 500 Tory members looking at what issues they consider are most important + views on various topics....
THREAD
What issues are you most passionate about? (Pick up to 4)
Cost of living 43% Channel crossings/refugees 32% Grow economy/unemp 32% NHS 24% Ukraine 19%
(I'm simplifying wording to fit in a tweet)
Trans issues came 26 and 27th on the list at 3% (they split participation in sport and rights of transgender people into two different categories).
Only thing lower was "what, if anything, should be done to improve racial equality in the UK".
For those who think Wokery is not a thing...go to London Waterloo station at the moment.
As a man, you will be lectured by EE through giant billboards all over the station on sexist hate in women's football. "EE Hope United will highlight the role of men to act as an ally to women during the Euros, encouraging them to own and challenge the problem of sexist abuse online and elsewhere: as the central perpetrators, online sexist hate is a man’s issue to solve as the campaign leads with the statement ‘Not Her Problem’".
You'd have thought they'd have learned from Gillette, wouldn't you?
The reality is that on current trajectory the new leader has to not be Boris Johnson who won the Red Wall but also not be Cameron or any other previous Tory leader who didn't and somehow make Starmer do as badly as Corbyn did there.
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
If the Tories lose the redwall seats Boris won from Labour, unless they regain seats in Scotland or the Remain seats Cameron won that are now Labour or LD then they lose their majority, even if they resolve CoL
Its not a binary sum. They might lose none of, a fraction, the bulk or all the red wall seats from 2019. Its not all or nothing. They could gain some of the BXP strong showing seats and lose others, or they could get muffed up everywhere. Its simply not a case of retain en masse or lose en masse with nothing in between
But it all shows Labour stance is tear down statues they don’t like, but put up statues of divisive figures they do like, even on the same plinth, doesn’t it?
Change all the statues after election win in much same way change head of BBC or appoint your own BoE chief once in power?
The trouble with new statues is it is usually obvious the statue looks nothing like its subject, whereas for some 18th Century general, we are none the wiser.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Only 6 more weeks to go, have strength!
Even Penny has gone down now in my estimation. Are any of these people not useless
No.
Then perhaps we should just accept this period of Government is over and much like in 2010 when it became clear things were over about three years before, perhaps that is where we are now.
Nobody seems to want to say it but maybe it's just time up for the Tories. Maybe they aren't destined to win again and Starmer will win a big majority. We seem to discount this because Labour but the evidence is right there for all to see.
I don't think Lavour will win a big majority - the enthusiasm for them isn't there like it was in 97 and they lack a charismatic leader. But I am pretty sure the Tories will lose the next election. They are morally and intellectually bankrupt, and the government is fiscally bankrupt, while half the country is deciding between eating and heating their homes this winter. The Tories have run out of road.
For those who think Wokery is not a thing...go to London Waterloo station at the moment.
As a man, you will be lectured by EE through giant billboards all over the station on sexist hate in women's football. "EE Hope United will highlight the role of men to act as an ally to women during the Euros, encouraging them to own and challenge the problem of sexist abuse online and elsewhere: as the central perpetrators, online sexist hate is a man’s issue to solve as the campaign leads with the statement ‘Not Her Problem’".
You'd have thought they'd have learned from Gillette, wouldn't you?
I went through Waterloo today, couldn't give a toss as my train was half an hour delayed and it cost be £40 regardless. Perhaps the Government should look at that
Here's an interesting stat every time you hear about the cost of living crisis:
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
Inflation has made the cost-of-living crisis acute, but the problems go back way further. We've had a poor decade for living standards. We have overburdened our economy. There's too much unproductive public spending, consuming taxpayers' hard-earned money. And there are too many well-meaning regulations slowing growth and clogging up the arteries of the economy. Too many policies like net-zero targets set up with no thought to the effects on industries in the poorer parts of this country. And the consequence is simply to displace the emissions of other countries. Unilateral economic disarmament. That is why we need change.
Here's an interesting stat every time you hear about the cost of living crisis:
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
Inflation has made the cost-of-living crisis acute, but the problems go back way further. We've had a poor decade for living standards. We have overburdened our economy. There's too much unproductive public spending, consuming taxpayers' hard-earned money. And there are too many well-meaning regulations slowing growth and clogging up the arteries of the economy. Too many policies like net-zero targets set up with no thought to the effects on industries in the poorer parts of this country. And the consequence is simply to displace the emissions of other countries. Unilateral economic disarmament. That is why we need change.
So she supported none of the policies her own party implemented, okay then.
She's not going to be able to run on change a second time for the Tories.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I just watched that clip. Poor show.
She could quite easily have conceded that she had been strictly wrong, but turned it to the fact that David Cameron *was* being disingenuous in the sense that it was government policy at the time to support Turkey’s accession.
Let's face Penny, she seems to enjoy bringing up Brexit which I am sure the public want to keep hearing about.
This lot are done, I am out.
You were praising Keirs brexit policy and how he was 'spot on' earlier when you linked to the Red Wall poll showing 69% think Brexit is unfinished business. So, yep, they do want to hear about it
I think Keir's policy is good - but I think the public do not want to keep hearing about Brexit from the party that claims it has delivered it and it is done.
I think these two things are not contradictory but you may disagree.
If they consider it unfinished business they want to know how it will be finished/whats next. They dont care who is offering the proposals for finishing it/whars next, they want details on how. Then they devide how that effects their vote. Same with CoL. Etc.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
I think you think these are important issues and so you suggest the public do too. I as usual completely disagree with you.
Yeah, but you don't "as usual completely disagree with (me)", do you?
We overlap and agree quite a lot in many areas, and, in others, the differences are shades of grey.
This stark and uncompromising black and white assertion suggests to me you simply don't want to engage on this issue because of the fear of where that may take you.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
How do you see anyone leading the Tories to a 100 seat majority given the economy? Genuinely interested.
The UK's proximate economic woes - as with most developed countries - are the consequence of spiking commodities prices. If Ukraine is successful at fending off Russia (and if they are, I suspect we will see regime change in Moscow), then grain will flow again from Ukraine, and coal, oil and gas will flow from Russia.
It is also worth noting that the Baker Hughes rig count continues to tick upwards, which means that US energy production is going to start rising again. Thanks to Covid, natural gas production in the US is still below late 2019 levels - but that is changing, and I'd expect new highs to be reached early next year.
The cost of living crisis can disappear as quickly as it arrived.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
I think you think these are important issues and so you suggest the public do too. I as usual completely disagree with you.
Yeah, but you don't "as usual completely disagree with (me)", do you?
We overlap and agree quite a lot in many areas, and, in others, the differences are shades of grey.
This stark and uncompromising black and white assertion suggests to me you simply don't want to engage on this issue because of the fear of where that may take you.
You just want to close it down.
We did engage last time and the conversation went nowhere, I am happy to do so again if you wish.
I don't think wokery or whatever it is called this week matters, I leave people to themselves.
Inflation has made the cost-of-living crisis acute, but the problems go back way further. We've had a poor decade for living standards. We have overburdened our economy. There's too much unproductive public spending, consuming taxpayers' hard-earned money. And there are too many well-meaning regulations slowing growth and clogging up the arteries of the economy. Too many policies like net-zero targets set up with no thought to the effects on industries in the poorer parts of this country. And the consequence is simply to displace the emissions of other countries. Unilateral economic disarmament. That is why we need change.
So she supported none of the policies her own party implemented, okay then.
She's not going to be able to run on change a second time for the Tories.
Did she also attack tax evasion and the use of dodgy offshore tax havens?
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Just a question, should Turkey have been in NATO? Why are we scared of Turkey?
The reality is that on current trajectory the new leader has to not be Boris Johnson who won the Red Wall but also not be Cameron or any other previous Tory leader who didn't and somehow make Starmer do as badly as Corbyn did there.
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
If the Tories lose the redwall seats Boris won from Labour, unless they regain seats in Scotland or the Remain seats Cameron won that are now Labour or LD then they lose their majority, even if they resolve CoL
Its not a binary sum. They might lose none of, a fraction, the bulk or all the red wall seats from 2019. Its not all or nothing. They could gain some of the BXP strong showing seats and lose others, or they could get muffed up everywhere. Its simply not a case of retain en masse or lose en masse with nothing in between
They can survive losing half the redwall seats and get a small majority (plus gaining a handful with big Brexit Party votes), lose virtually all of the redwall seats Boris gained however and they have to regain Remain seats Cameron won that the Tories have lost since the EU referendum to hold their majority or regain seats in Scotland May won to even have enough seats to govern with the DUP
Here's an interesting stat every time you hear about the cost of living crisis:
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
May I gently suggest the key word there is "average"?
Of course, I said average.
The point is things aren't really that hard for the average household and then there will be a further chunk below average but still spending say £2,000+ on those areas.
So you're left with maybe 25% of households significantly hurting.
And whilst it's not a nice thing to say, the Conservatives don't really need those people (or certainly not many of them) to win a GE.
Why is it strange that Mordaunt would mention Brexit?
Seeing as how card-carrying Tories are obsessed by topic?
I am looking at this from the perspective of the next election, to try and get a bet in early. I thought she was a candidate Labour should fear and that would inform my bet but she's intent on bringing up old debates and lying about stuff so she's not doing any better than Johnson at the moment.
I am going to stick another £50 on Hung Parliament I think
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken.
The reality is that on current trajectory the new leader has to not be Boris Johnson who won the Red Wall but also not be Cameron or any other previous Tory leader who didn't and somehow make Starmer do as badly as Corbyn did there.
I think the Red Wall is lost and has been for some time.
The new leader though can win a Cameron-style majority if they sort out CoL. Otherwise they're screwed.
If the Tories lose the redwall seats Boris won from Labour, unless they regain seats in Scotland or the Remain seats Cameron won that are now Labour or LD then they lose their majority, even if they resolve CoL
Its not a binary sum. They might lose none of, a fraction, the bulk or all the red wall seats from 2019. Its not all or nothing. They could gain some of the BXP strong showing seats and lose others, or they could get muffed up everywhere. Its simply not a case of retain en masse or lose en masse with nothing in between
They can survive losing half the redwall seats and get a small majority (plus gaining a handful with big Brexit Party votes), lose virtually all of the redwall seats Boris gained however and they have to regain Remain seats Cameron won that the Tories have lost since the EU referendum to hold their majority or regain seats in Scotland May won to even have enough seats to govern with the DUP
Kemi seems to be a Starmer beater because...she's anti-woke?
I am not sure the Red Wall care about this as much as people think they do.
Depends on how you define "woke". A lot of red wall WWC voters are socially conservative. Many of them *very* socially conservative. They instinctively don't like things that don't fit traditional gender stereotypes. But their kids feel very different, so they aren't reactionary in the main.
People like our foreign correspondent seem obsessed about the Woke threat - how we're all being brainwashed into become trans pansexuals who hate Churchill. That isn't something that most red wall WWC voters even understand. But the basis of anti-woke? Being pro flag, pro our boys (football / soldiers etc), pro lock up criminals? Sure.
The problem for the Tories is that their party members are clueless. And candidates are having to pitch increasingly shrill mentalist positions to win the support of these old duffers. Which will be a problem. Or, they can elect someone like Sunak or Badenoch. And win.
Labour under Starmer operates in this space. And this is why the Tories are in trouble. This has Blair written all over it - which makes sense as he's advising them.
I think they will not win a majority whoever they choose. They've had their time.
Johnson's achievement- making his government look like a fresh start, rather than version 1.3 of a Conservative government that started in 2010- was an incredible act of politics. Both amazing and not really to be believed. It's not impossible that his sucessor will pull off the same trick again, but it won't be easy. And at some point, people will notice that Conservative election winners- Cameron 2015, May 2017, Johnson 2019 don't last long afterwards.
Meanwhile, the economic outlook looks horrible. And if it's horrible enough, it doesn't matter if Starmer's answers are pure blather. He still wins, by default.
No it's a vicious culture war being fought against a small minority group because the Right have completely run out of ideas on how to actually run the country.
Reading an interview with a guy who worked on the Australian Liberals campaign, he said that when they tried to make trans people a key issue, the response from the voters was: "The country is on fire 3 months a year, what the f*ck are you talking to me about trans people for?"
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Here's an interesting stat every time you hear about the cost of living crisis:
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
Inflation has made the cost-of-living crisis acute, but the problems go back way further. We've had a poor decade for living standards. We have overburdened our economy. There's too much unproductive public spending, consuming taxpayers' hard-earned money. And there are too many well-meaning regulations slowing growth and clogging up the arteries of the economy. Too many policies like net-zero targets set up with no thought to the effects on industries in the poorer parts of this country. And the consequence is simply to displace the emissions of other countries. Unilateral economic disarmament. That is why we need change.
So she supported none of the policies her own party implemented, okay then.
You know she was elected in 2017, right? Consistently voted against net zero, for raising tax thresholds - might be safer to look up what she's done instead of guessing.
Kemi seems to be a Starmer beater because...she's anti-woke?
I am not sure the Red Wall care about this as much as people think they do.
Depends on how you define "woke". A lot of red wall WWC voters are socially conservative. Many of them *very* socially conservative. They instinctively don't like things that don't fit traditional gender stereotypes. But their kids feel very different, so they aren't reactionary in the main.
People like our foreign correspondent seem obsessed about the Woke threat - how we're all being brainwashed into become trans pansexuals who hate Churchill. That isn't something that most red wall WWC voters even understand. But the basis of anti-woke? Being pro flag, pro our boys (football / soldiers etc), pro lock up criminals? Sure.
The problem for the Tories is that their party members are clueless. And candidates are having to pitch increasingly shrill mentalist positions to win the support of these old duffers. Which will be a problem. Or, they can elect someone like Sunak or Badenoch. And win.
Labour under Starmer operates in this space. And this is why the Tories are in trouble. This has Blair written all over it - which makes sense as he's advising them.
I think they will not win a majority whoever they choose. They've had their time.
Johnson's achievement- making his government look like a fresh start, rather than version 1.3 of a Conservative government that started in 2010- was an incredible act of politics. Both amazing and not really to be believed. It's not impossible that his sucessor will pull off the same trick again, but it won't be easy. And at some point, people will notice that Conservative election winners- Cameron 2015, May 2017, Johnson 2019 don't last long afterwards.
Meanwhile, the economic outlook looks horrible. And if it's horrible enough, it doesn't matter if Starmer's answers are pure blather. He still wins, by default.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
It has already been explained many times
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
It's only the government's opinion that the right form of language has not been used.
If the government can decide whether or not to allow a given confidence motion, we are in murky territory.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
How do you see anyone leading the Tories to a 100 seat majority given the economy? Genuinely interested.
Fundamentally the economic situation is not due to the government's failings - high inflation due to a global supply shock is not their fault. So the public are open to the argument that the government are doing the right things to help the country through a difficult period - provided the government do reasonably helpful things and don't oversell what they're able to achieve.
At the moment the government have oversold what they can do and this has created discontent.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
How do you see anyone leading the Tories to a 100 seat majority given the economy? Genuinely interested.
Fundamentally the economic situation is not due to the government's failings - high inflation due to a global supply shock is not their fault. So the public are open to the argument that the government are doing the right things to help the country through a difficult period - provided the government do reasonably helpful things and don't oversell what they're able to achieve.
At the moment the government have oversold what they can do and this has created discontent.
Depends how good Labour are. The Tories blamed Labour for the GFC which worked to great success.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I just watched that clip. Poor show.
She could quite easily have conceded that she had been strictly wrong, but turned it to the fact that David Cameron *was* being disingenuous in the sense that it was government policy at the time to support Turkey’s accession.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken
The way it was framed in the main Vote Leave press conference on Turkey was that it was UK government policy to support Turkish membership and that voting Leave would be the only chance the electorate here would have to vote directly against free movement with Turkey.
Here's an interesting stat every time you hear about the cost of living crisis:
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
May I gently suggest the key word there is "average"?
Of course, I said average.
The point is things aren't really that hard for the average household and then there will be a further chunk below average but still spending say £2,000+ on those areas.
So you're left with maybe 25% of households significantly hurting.
And whilst it's not a nice thing to say, the Conservatives don't really need those people (or certainly not many of them) to win a GE.
Well of course. Plenty of folk are doing quite well. However. Restaurants, hotels, entertainment. People work in them as well. Except they don't if it's all being spent on fuel.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
I don't disagree with your point.
But.
The accession of a new country to the EU requires a Treaty signed by every member of the EU and the accession country. (The EU itself is not a signatory.)
Given that the UK had been one of the - if not the - biggest cheerleader for Turkish accession, it would have been pretty awkward for us to veto it at the last. But it is simply incorrect to say that the UK (or Cyprus or Luxembourg) did not have a veto on Turkey joining the EU.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
It has already been explained many times
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
It's only the government's opinion that the right form of language has not been used.
If the government can decide whether or not to allow a given confidence motion, we are in murky territory.
Backed up by the opinion of the Library of the House who know more about this than any of us here. And I do trust them.
The solution is very simple. Starmer tables the standard motion and he gets the debate
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
How do you see anyone leading the Tories to a 100 seat majority given the economy? Genuinely interested.
Fundamentally the economic situation is not due to the government's failings - high inflation due to a global supply shock is not their fault. So the public are open to the argument that the government are doing the right things to help the country through a difficult period - provided the government do reasonably helpful things and don't oversell what they're able to achieve.
At the moment the government have oversold what they can do and this has created discontent.
Imho the best that that line could achieve for the Tories is a hung parliament.
In any event there is not a cat in hell's chance that this bunch could deliver that line convincingly.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken.
Wow, suddenly pointing out that Greensill Dave was a lying, smarmy, duplicitous bastard makes you a bad person, does it?
I don't get this at all. If her point is true (and it is not denied) that the fop had given an undertaking not to veto, it was grossly misleading of him to say We have a veto and not follow up with Though admittedly I personally am estopped from exercising it, and my successors might also be embarrassed by my undertaking. Leave was wrong and dishonest, but let's not forget the appalling patronising dishonesty emanating from the remainariat at all times in general, and over Turkey in particular.
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
It has already been explained many times
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
It's only the government's opinion that the right form of language has not been used.
If the government can decide whether or not to allow a given confidence motion, we are in murky territory.
If the opposition can add whatever conditionals they like to a VONC and expect it to take precedence procedurally we are in murky territory. If they want the expedited house time, use the standard format.
RedfieldWilton finds Conservative voteshare down 3% in the redwall seats since Boris resigned, RefUK vote more than doubled from 3% to 7%. Labour voteshare unchanged
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
There does seem to be a touch of the ‘Boris problem’ with Penny which Cyclefree flagged up days ago, but we didn’t listen because we couldn’t see it ☹️
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken
The way it was framed in the main Vote Leave press conference on Turkey was that it was UK government policy to support Turkish membership and that voting Leave would be the only chance the electorate here would be able to vote directly against free movement with Turkey.
I don’t have an issue with that. I have an issue with lies. Penny is lying because Paris is worth a mass.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
A school governor isn't in the classroom. They are rarely in the school.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I just watched that clip. Poor show.
She could quite easily have conceded that she had been strictly wrong, but turned it to the fact that David Cameron *was* being disingenuous in the sense that it was government policy at the time to support Turkey’s accession.
Instead she doubled down on a falsehood.
“Paris is worth a mass”…
But it was a monk who had the last word . . . which was "you dirty rat!" or something like that . . .
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Just a question, should Turkey have been in NATO? Why are we scared of Turkey?
If you mean why were we scared of immigration from Turkey, I suppose because the country is extremely populous, has a big existing community in the UK (which often encourages people to migrate in greater volumes), and culturally shared less similarities with the UK than Poland, where we'd seen previous big waves of EU immigration from.
Again, even if Turkey had acceded, with negotiation, the UK could probably have been exempt from free movement with Turkey, somehow, but the point is that successive UK Governments wouldn't have done this. Our Governments and administrators have always opted to go the full docklands hooker approach when it came to implementing EU stuff on the UK, which is a big part of the reason we've now Brexited. But like I say, we got no referendum on UK Governments being shit, we got one on the EU.
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
I think you think these are important issues and so you suggest the public do too. I as usual completely disagree with you.
Yeah, but you don't "as usual completely disagree with (me)", do you?
We overlap and agree quite a lot in many areas, and, in others, the differences are shades of grey.
This stark and uncompromising black and white assertion suggests to me you simply don't want to engage on this issue because of the fear of where that may take you.
You just want to close it down.
We did engage last time and the conversation went nowhere, I am happy to do so again if you wish.
I don't think wokery or whatever it is called this week matters, I leave people to themselves.
The conversation didn't go nowhere. I made genuine and valid points and you refused to accept them.
This is a problem your generation have.
Go and read up on what Tony Blair said on the matter, and then come back on here and tell me when you've understood.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken.
Wow, suddenly pointing out that Greensill Dave was a lying, smarmy, duplicitous bastard makes you a bad person, does it?
I don't get this at all. If her point is true (and it is not denied) that the fop had given an undertaking not to veto, it was grossly misleading of him to say We have a veto and not follow up with Though admittedly I personally am estopped from exercising it, and my successors might also be embarrassed by my undertaking. Leave was wrong and dishonest, but let's not forget the appalling patronising dishonesty emanating from the remainariat at all times in general, and over Turkey in particular.
Uncharacteristically obtuse from you. I criticised Cameron’s disingenuity upthread, but the issue is whether Penny was correct or not.
She was incorrect (and possibly lying) then, she must certainly be lying now as she has been asked about it many times subsequently.
But it all shows Labour stance is tear down statues they don’t like, but put up statues of divisive figures they do like, even on the same plinth, doesn’t it?
Change all the statues after election win in much same way change head of BBC or appoint your own BoE chief once in power?
The trouble with new statues is it is usually obvious the statue looks nothing like its subject, whereas for some 18th Century general, we are none the wiser.
I present to you a statue of Nathan Bedford Forrest:
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
The reality is that when the public want to hear about energy bills and food, the Tories have a debate about statues.
This is why the Tories are seen as more out of touch than ever and crucially, why Labour are ahead - because Labour are not having these arguments. Labour has intelligently manoeuvred subtly onto CoL.
The Tories will lose and lose big if they go down this road - and it looks like that is where they are going.
I'd turn that around.
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
I think you think these are important issues and so you suggest the public do too. I as usual completely disagree with you.
Yeah, but you don't "as usual completely disagree with (me)", do you?
We overlap and agree quite a lot in many areas, and, in others, the differences are shades of grey.
This stark and uncompromising black and white assertion suggests to me you simply don't want to engage on this issue because of the fear of where that may take you.
You just want to close it down.
We did engage last time and the conversation went nowhere, I am happy to do so again if you wish.
I don't think wokery or whatever it is called this week matters, I leave people to themselves.
The conversation didn't go nowhere. I made genuine and valid points and you refused to accept them.
This is a problem your generation have.
Go and read up on what Tony Blair said on the matter, and then come back on here and tell me when you've understood.
Then we can talk again.
Why do you feel the need to condescend me in every post you make, I will debate you if you stop talking to me like I'm dirt on the bottom of your shoe.
RedfieldWilton finds Conservative voteshare down 3% in the redwall seats since Boris resigned, RefUK vote more than doubled from 3% to 7%. Labour voteshare unchanged
Comments
The fact of the matter is we just can’t know. We can try and predict but governments have come back from periods of unpopularity and they will do so again.
I suspect a hung Parliament is by far the most likely result for the next election - but the leadership change is a big unknown.
It's the Hail Mary play.
She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State.
In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start.
She might even learn some things.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/uk-opposition-welcomes-mahatma-gandhi-statue-at-parliament-square/articleshow/46557233.cms?from=mdr
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/merseyside/5374060.stm
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11833544/jeremy-corbyn-fans-want-statue-of-former-labour-leader-to-replace-edward-colston-monument-in-bristol/
If the swing electorate conclude that politicians of any stripe couldn't do much about the energy crisis in the short term anyway, which is probably true, then they might think they may as well deal with things they can control - like erasing the definition of women, altering the public realm to make statements about diversity, politicising the teaching of history, and assessing everyone's worth through the intersectionality of their identity.
Beware.
You are naughty. But I like you. So I forgive you. Next time we meet you owe me a delicious cocktail.
But my post was directed at @StillWaters who made the Euuwwh comment.
https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2022/07/06/marsha-de-cordova-jk-rowling-maya-forstater-tribunal/
Penny 2.94
Sunak 2.96
Truss 5
Truss drifting a bit - not sure why - maybe punters taking note of Jack W's forecast?
Job done.
Country screwed.
In 2017 May gained seats in Scotland but lost them in England and Wales. In 2010 Brown lost no seats in Scotland but lost 91 seats UK wide. Scotland often acts differently to England at UK general elections in terms of swing
I think these two things are not contradictory but you may disagree.
Change all the statues after election win in much same way change head of BBC or appoint your own BoE chief once in power?
In 2020 (albeit before the cost of living crisis) the average household spent over £5,000 per year on restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture.
That's a lot of money on non-essentials that could be cut out if you really have to. Not saying anybody would want to - and life wouldn't be great without any of that - but even so a lot of scope for making savings if you really have to.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-uk-household-budget#nogo
(I probably should leave PB at this point because how can any subsequent post top that?)
Graphic violence, foul language (OGH would issue Butcher a lifetime ban), and more than occasional nudity - but excellent, and rather chilling political satire.
THREAD
What issues are you most passionate about? (Pick up to 4)
Cost of living 43%
Channel crossings/refugees 32%
Grow economy/unemp 32%
NHS 24%
Ukraine 19%
(I'm simplifying wording to fit in a tweet)
Trans issues came 26 and 27th on the list at 3% (they split participation in sport and rights of transgender people into two different categories).
Only thing lower was "what, if anything, should be done to improve racial equality in the UK".
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1546960872744124416
Common sense at last from the Tory membership
As a man, you will be lectured by EE through giant billboards all over the station on sexist hate in women's football.
"EE Hope United will highlight the role of men to act as an ally to women during the Euros, encouraging them to own and challenge the problem of sexist abuse online and elsewhere: as the central perpetrators, online sexist hate is a man’s issue to solve as the campaign leads with the statement ‘Not Her Problem’".
You'd have thought they'd have learned from Gillette, wouldn't you?
Its simply not a case of retain en masse or lose en masse with nothing in between
I think the same.
Inflation has made the cost-of-living crisis acute, but the problems go back way further. We've had a poor decade for living standards. We have overburdened our economy. There's too much unproductive public spending, consuming taxpayers' hard-earned money. And there are too many well-meaning regulations slowing growth and clogging up the arteries of the economy. Too many policies like net-zero targets set up with no thought to the effects on industries in the poorer parts of this country. And the consequence is simply to displace the emissions of other countries. Unilateral economic disarmament. That is why we need change.
'Let them not even eat cake.'
She's not going to be able to run on change a second time for the Tories.
Poor show.
She could quite easily have conceded that she had been strictly wrong, but turned it to the fact that David Cameron *was* being disingenuous in the sense that it was government policy at the time to support Turkey’s accession.
Instead she doubled down on a falsehood.
Then they devide how that effects their vote.
Same with CoL.
Etc.
We overlap and agree quite a lot in many areas, and, in others, the differences are shades of grey.
This stark and uncompromising black and white assertion suggests to me you simply don't want to engage on this issue because of the fear of where that may take you.
You just want to close it down.
The affair between @Cyclefree and @Leon is a very pretty romance.
But the affair between @Leon and @Leon is one of the very greatest love stories of all time.
@Leon finds @Leon thrilling, sexy & compulsively readable.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
It is also worth noting that the Baker Hughes rig count continues to tick upwards, which means that US energy production is going to start rising again. Thanks to Covid, natural gas production in the US is still below late 2019 levels - but that is changing, and I'd expect new highs to be reached early next year.
The cost of living crisis can disappear as quickly as it arrived.
She said you were a very naughty boy…
I don't think wokery or whatever it is called this week matters, I leave people to themselves.
Why didn't he do so earlier?
Seeing as how card-carrying Tories are obsessed by topic?
The point is things aren't really that hard for the average household and then there will be a further chunk below average but still spending say £2,000+ on those areas.
So you're left with maybe 25% of households significantly hurting.
And whilst it's not a nice thing to say, the Conservatives don't really need those people (or certainly not many of them) to win a GE.
I am going to stick another £50 on Hung Parliament I think
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken.
Meanwhile, the economic outlook looks horrible. And if it's horrible enough, it doesn't matter if Starmer's answers are pure blather. He still wins, by default.
No it's a vicious culture war being fought against a small minority group because the Right have completely run out of ideas on how to actually run the country.
Reading an interview with a guy who worked on the Australian Liberals campaign, he said that when they tried to make trans people a key issue, the response from the voters was: "The country is on fire 3 months a year, what the f*ck are you talking to me about trans people for?"
https://twitter.com/nbutton93/status/1546946639918776320
Australia has a lot to show us.
(Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Thickos.
If the government can decide whether or not to allow a given confidence motion, we are in murky territory.
At the moment the government have oversold what they can do and this has created discontent.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1546843079939919873?s=20&t=BdshA4mmfTHBYfdNA4CTJA
I presume this is camp Rishi - they'll donate enough MPs to keep Hunt alive and ahead of Tugendhat so he drops out.
If you watch the odds on Betfair Tugendhat is drifting out and Hunt has come in - they've almost crossed over - and someone knows this.
Plenty of folk are doing quite well.
However. Restaurants, hotels, entertainment. People work in them as well. Except they don't if it's all being spent on fuel.
But.
The accession of a new country to the EU requires a Treaty signed by every member of the EU and the accession country. (The EU itself is not a signatory.)
Given that the UK had been one of the - if not the - biggest cheerleader for Turkish accession, it would have been pretty awkward for us to veto it at the last. But it is simply incorrect to say that the UK (or Cyprus or Luxembourg) did not have a veto on Turkey joining the EU.
The solution is very simple. Starmer tables the standard motion and he gets the debate
I don't understand why he isn't doing just that.
In any event there is not a cat in hell's chance that this bunch could deliver that line convincingly.
I don't get this at all. If her point is true (and it is not denied) that the fop had given an undertaking not to veto, it was grossly misleading of him to say We have a veto and not follow up with Though admittedly I personally am estopped from exercising it, and my successors might also be embarrassed by my undertaking. Leave was wrong and dishonest, but let's not forget the appalling patronising dishonesty emanating from the remainariat at all times in general, and over Turkey in particular.
If they want the expedited house time, use the standard format.
2.88 Penny Mordaunt 34%
3 Rishi Sunak 33%
5.2 Liz Truss 19%
15 Kemi Badenoch 6%
32 Tom Tugendhat
36 Jeremy Hunt
70 Suella Braverman
110 Nadhim Zahawi
280 Dominic Raab
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1546841838904041472?s=20&t=M50g5CkoJHagRvb9c3hY4Q
I have an issue with lies. Penny is lying because Paris is worth a mass.
They are rarely in the school.
Again, even if Turkey had acceded, with negotiation, the UK could probably have been exempt from free movement with Turkey, somehow, but the point is that successive UK Governments wouldn't have done this. Our Governments and administrators have always opted to go the full docklands hooker approach when it came to implementing EU stuff on the UK, which is a big part of the reason we've now Brexited. But like I say, we got no referendum on UK Governments being shit, we got one on the EU.
This is a problem your generation have.
Go and read up on what Tony Blair said on the matter, and then come back on here and tell me when you've understood.
Then we can talk again.
I criticised Cameron’s disingenuity upthread, but the issue is whether Penny was correct or not.
She was incorrect (and possibly lying) then, she must certainly be lying now as she has been asked about it many times subsequently.
And you can bet Farage will not be standing down next time.