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Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    edited July 12
    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    It’s not like anyone on public sector payroll can’t hear these threats to their job, and voters these threats to their services - yet so many posters on PB convinced Tories to get a poll bounce from this extensive media coverage.

    Even cuts to fuel duty benefits richer than poorer people, let alone Javid’s promise to cut NHS expenditure to pay for income tax cuts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Roger, the Labour VONC is to remind us that Starmer's a bit slow and unimpressive.

    Mr. Urquhart, not too surprising. He did make a seriously bad call, although Mercedes (for all their bleating) had screwed up their strategy. Had they not played safety first, Hamilton would've been on fresher tyres and would've easily retained the lead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    The markets have REALLY soured on Hunt and Zahawi, both way way out at 3+ figures.
    Javid was already there.

    £66 now lost by someone or other on Chishti at 1000.0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    From Unherd:

    The formerly normal aspiration to settle and start a family is out of reach for swathes of young people. A fundamental compact between conservative principles, and the party that is supposed to represent them, has been broken.

    Britain tends to think of itself as an equal partner to countries such as France, the Netherlands and Germany in terms of incomes and living standards. This is a collective fantasy, which hasn’t been true for well over a decade. The reality shouldn’t be shocking, yet it remains so: Britain’s incomes and living standards have fallen far behind what were its peer nations only 15 years ago. “Across European countries, only households in Greece and Cyprus saw a worse performance between 2007 and 2018 than the UK,” found the Resolution Foundation.

    Because the reality is that Britain’s national religion is no longer Anglican Christianity. It isn’t even the NHS. It is Pensionerism. Britain is a care home with a navy.

    Yet all attempts to reform this growth-killing inequity end in failure, such is the strength of the homeowner-pensioner lobby.

    Without Brexit to focus on, the Government has lost its sense of purpose. The next leader must be a strategist, cerebral, and yet still a salesman. Someone who recognises that there’s more to winning than winning itself, and declinist managerialism — that a far greater prize is changing peoples’ lives and your country, for the better.

    There’s a similar article in the FT: the new decline of Britain

    The graphs are quite shocking in how UK median income is falling behind, even as we do OK-ish on GDP per capita (suggesting rising inequality)

    Moreover, the turning point in all the graphs is the Great Financial Crisis, not Brexit. Up to 2008 the UK was steaming ahead and even overtaking all west European peers, in 2008 we stumbled and fell, and have never recovered

    Something happened in 2008. The easy answer is we borrowed too much and when credit was squeezed, ouch. But that is true of many countries. What was particular to Britain that changed in 2008?
    We didn't have a proper crash in house prices but instead Brown/Darling and then Cameron/Osborne propped up the market with ever more schemes to increase lending.
    It's more that our financial services industry was proportionately far bigger than anyone else's and produced a much greater proportion of government funds by way of tax. We lost huge numbers of really well paid jobs and we have not replaced them which has driven median income down in a somewhat exaggerated fashion. Those who have remained in work have done ok but the loss of the cream at the top has driven down the averages.
    It is also, possibly, a wider secular trend in the West that is slowly spreading

    The rot started in the USA where median incomes have been treading water for ages - hence Trump. Then Britain fell into the trap. Hence Brexit. France looks like it is following, as income stagnates…

    And so on
    The theory that the fall of communism removed the threat of ‘the workers’ turning toward an alternative economic model and hence removed the imperative for western governments to ensure that the benefits of capitalist growth were spread reasonably fairly remains persuasive, even though there isn’t much empirical evidence to support it.
    I’ve never encountered that theory. At first glance, it makes some sense, even if the process is unconscious
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    Just so they can force a whole bunch of spineless Tories to confidence Boris – easy pickings for election lit.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,362
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    England haven't even used up half their overs yet. Unreal.

    This is an actual cricket match, or it’s a bunch of hired actors pretending to play, in order to attract dodgy Russian betting money?
    Not sure. I heard yesterday on the commentary of the women's game that Russian gamblers had been conned into betting on a non existent IPL match where every time the ball left the limited screen the umpire indicated 4 or 6. It's maybe a bit like that.
    Yes, there was a fake IPL match in India, purely to attract bets which were never paid out afterwards. Perhaps today’s most bizzare news story.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/11/conmen-set-fake-indian-premier-league-tournament-make-thousands/
    Hold my beer ... I was juyst looking at this one. Apparently rehab centres for treating addiction to crypto are a thing. Complete with tasteful photos of walkies in the local Borders scenery.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

    'In May, jobless and broke, Roy checked into Castle Craig, one of the only centres in the world that treats cryptocurrency addiction. (He lost his job when he relapsed; his rehab fees are covered by medical insurance.) His cryptocurrency portfolio is worth about €300. Now, amid the incongruous grandeur of a Scottish stately home, he is attempting to rebuild his life – and quieten the tormenting thought that he should have pulled out his money when he had the chance.

    “It’s heartbreaking,” Roy says, softly. “I hate myself for the fact that I didn’t take it out.”'
    In what sense are crypto losers addicted, rather than just investors who did not get out in time?
    The excitement? Buying and selling? I dunno. Not like me - put money in a unit trust and leave it etc. But Leon confirms it is a Thing. Personally, if I wanted cheap thrills, I'd rather go and have a walk along the Tweed and a few pints in the pubs in Peebles.
    Different thing. What you are doing there is giving yourself a sense of pleasure and wellbeing and (I think) generating serotonin, rather than giving yourself a little dopamine hit.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    It would be really funny if Chishti has 50 undeclared supporters
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    While there's been much focus on Kemi's views on wokeness and the trans issues, there's been less focus on her promise to abandon net zero, roll back the state, cut education expenditure and so on.

    I can see her winning the Tory membership over. I'm less persuaded that abandoning net zero and rolling back the state so drastically will win over the typical floating voter.

    I want the Tories removed a long long way from office. Whichever candidate they select as PM. But it is encouraging to think that people like Badenoch can actually be a serious contender for *the Tories*.

    The threat to Labour is simple. She is far more confident, articulate and sane that so many of the various prominent BAME equivalents are in Labour. A black woman who is a successful migrant saying lets cut the crap and focus on people's priorities goes way beyond what Labour can offer.
    Badenoch was born in Wimbledon.
    So she’s migrated north of the river?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309

    I was expecting this from the lefty’s.
    I hear the Welsh mountains are nervous about their inclusion. And the Angel of the North is considering his options.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,250
    edited July 12
    The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.

    You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.

    Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.

    The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    From Unherd:

    The formerly normal aspiration to settle and start a family is out of reach for swathes of young people. A fundamental compact between conservative principles, and the party that is supposed to represent them, has been broken.

    Britain tends to think of itself as an equal partner to countries such as France, the Netherlands and Germany in terms of incomes and living standards. This is a collective fantasy, which hasn’t been true for well over a decade. The reality shouldn’t be shocking, yet it remains so: Britain’s incomes and living standards have fallen far behind what were its peer nations only 15 years ago. “Across European countries, only households in Greece and Cyprus saw a worse performance between 2007 and 2018 than the UK,” found the Resolution Foundation.

    Because the reality is that Britain’s national religion is no longer Anglican Christianity. It isn’t even the NHS. It is Pensionerism. Britain is a care home with a navy.

    Yet all attempts to reform this growth-killing inequity end in failure, such is the strength of the homeowner-pensioner lobby.

    Without Brexit to focus on, the Government has lost its sense of purpose. The next leader must be a strategist, cerebral, and yet still a salesman. Someone who recognises that there’s more to winning than winning itself, and declinist managerialism — that a far greater prize is changing peoples’ lives and your country, for the better.

    There’s a similar article in the FT: the new decline of Britain

    The graphs are quite shocking in how UK median income is falling behind, even as we do OK-ish on GDP per capita (suggesting rising inequality)

    Moreover, the turning point in all the graphs is the Great Financial Crisis, not Brexit. Up to 2008 the UK was steaming ahead and even overtaking all west European peers, in 2008 we stumbled and fell, and have never recovered

    Something happened in 2008. The easy answer is we borrowed too much and when credit was squeezed, ouch. But that is true of many countries. What was particular to Britain that changed in 2008?
    We didn't have a proper crash in house prices but instead Brown/Darling and then Cameron/Osborne propped up the market with ever more schemes to increase lending.
    It's more that our financial services industry was proportionately far bigger than anyone else's and produced a much greater proportion of government funds by way of tax. We lost huge numbers of really well paid jobs and we have not replaced them which has driven median income down in a somewhat exaggerated fashion. Those who have remained in work have done ok but the loss of the cream at the top has driven down the averages.
    It is also, possibly, a wider secular trend in the West that is slowly spreading

    The rot started in the USA where median incomes have been treading water for ages - hence Trump. Then Britain fell into the trap. Hence Brexit. France looks like it is following, as income stagnates…

    And so on
    The theory that the fall of communism removed the threat of ‘the workers’ turning toward an alternative economic model and hence removed the imperative for western governments to ensure that the benefits of capitalist growth were spread reasonably fairly remains persuasive, even though there isn’t much empirical evidence to support it.
    I think, though, we'd have seen the same had the Eastern bloc continued for another twenty years. Globalisation would still have been a thing (although, Eastern European countries would be excluded form it). Communism was long discredited as an alternative by 1989.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    I haven't come up with a Viz name for Kemi as yet – no offence intended to her by the omission, if she's reading, I'm working on it.

    Kemi Badenough. Capable of losing the next election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044


    She has more ministerial experience than either Cameron or Blair had when they became PM. She is slightly younger than Cameron was and a bit younger than Blair.

    Is it because she’s a woman she’s “inexperienced”, or because she isn’t Public School / Oxford educated?

    That's extremely misleading. Cameron didn't have ministerial experience, of course, but he had (with Osborne) oodles of experience at the centre of events as a SPAD, and he had five years of LOTO experience before becoming PM. He'd also surrounded himself with an excellent team which spent a lot of effort learning about how to do government. He was extremely well prepared for office, as was Blair, who also spent his time as a shadow minister and then LOTO very wisely.

    That's completely different from being catapulted into the PM position from a minor role whilst the party is in government.
    A lot would depend on her team and her attitude to it. A return to cabinet government is long overdue in my opinion. Decline then almost dead by end of New Labour. The a few slight resuscitations and relapses with no vital signs at a all under Johnson.
    Very hard to build up an effective team when three quarters of those in it think they should be leader instead of you, and the other quarter think someone else should be.
    True bit isn't that true of all governments at all times?
    Yes, but it is much reduced if the leader has a serious track record, rather than being a Kemi-come-lately.
    So you want a leader with the experience of managing a major department in the stellar Johnson administration. “Time for a change” is out then, more “Steady as she goes” and “Building on Success” (sic)?


    Yeah, well, if the party had listened to me they wouldn't be starting from here. There are no good options.
    So which are the least worst ones?

    I see Truss as continuity Johnson and because of her Remain apostasy now even more Brexiteer in penance - a disaster in pursuit of headlines

    Sunak is a smooth operator but I’m yet to be convinced there’s much of substance there - we need ideas, not slogans. He’s also going to spend time rubbishing the record of the last Chancellor but one, which could be awkward.

    I don’t know much about either Mordaunt or Badenoch - but Mordaunt appears to have been imbibing the Stonewall kool-aid, however much she tries to row back from it now. The issue is not the policy per-se - which reasonable people can disagree over, but the apparently unthinking adoption if it and mindless repetition of meaningless slogans.

    I thought Badenoch’s speech impressive and if followed through both a break from the past and a good start. She appears to have more substance than most of them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    I was expecting this from the lefty’s.
    But it's rather telling that Mordaunt wasn't.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    From Unherd:

    The formerly normal aspiration to settle and start a family is out of reach for swathes of young people. A fundamental compact between conservative principles, and the party that is supposed to represent them, has been broken.

    Britain tends to think of itself as an equal partner to countries such as France, the Netherlands and Germany in terms of incomes and living standards. This is a collective fantasy, which hasn’t been true for well over a decade. The reality shouldn’t be shocking, yet it remains so: Britain’s incomes and living standards have fallen far behind what were its peer nations only 15 years ago. “Across European countries, only households in Greece and Cyprus saw a worse performance between 2007 and 2018 than the UK,” found the Resolution Foundation.

    Because the reality is that Britain’s national religion is no longer Anglican Christianity. It isn’t even the NHS. It is Pensionerism. Britain is a care home with a navy.

    Yet all attempts to reform this growth-killing inequity end in failure, such is the strength of the homeowner-pensioner lobby.

    Without Brexit to focus on, the Government has lost its sense of purpose. The next leader must be a strategist, cerebral, and yet still a salesman. Someone who recognises that there’s more to winning than winning itself, and declinist managerialism — that a far greater prize is changing peoples’ lives and your country, for the better.

    There’s a similar article in the FT: the new decline of Britain

    The graphs are quite shocking in how UK median income is falling behind, even as we do OK-ish on GDP per capita (suggesting rising inequality)

    Moreover, the turning point in all the graphs is the Great Financial Crisis, not Brexit. Up to 2008 the UK was steaming ahead and even overtaking all west European peers, in 2008 we stumbled and fell, and have never recovered

    Something happened in 2008. The easy answer is we borrowed too much and when credit was squeezed, ouch. But that is true of many countries. What was particular to Britain that changed in 2008?
    We didn't have a proper crash in house prices but instead Brown/Darling and then Cameron/Osborne propped up the market with ever more schemes to increase lending.
    It's more that our financial services industry was proportionately far bigger than anyone else's and produced a much greater proportion of government funds by way of tax. We lost huge numbers of really well paid jobs and we have not replaced them which has driven median income down in a somewhat exaggerated fashion. Those who have remained in work have done ok but the loss of the cream at the top has driven down the averages.
    It is also, possibly, a wider secular trend in the West that is slowly spreading

    The rot started in the USA where median incomes have been treading water for ages - hence Trump. Then Britain fell into the trap. Hence Brexit. France looks like it is following, as income stagnates…

    And so on
    It’s the middle classes being hollowed out across the West, as large industry and manufacturing industries have largely moved to Asia, replaced by low-income warehouse and driving work.
    What I find fascinating is the reaction of a range of people to the idea of having industries based in the UK.

    A considerable chunk of the progressive types have absorbed the idea that you can't compete on price with "PhDs for $1 a week in China". Despite the fact that there is a small thing called productivity to consider. And you can get someone with a PhD to work for you in China for a dollar a week, either.
    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    My hunch is Javid may struggle to get 20 nominations.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    edited July 12
    I thought this 20 nominations was supposed to cull the field extensively?
    It looks like Shapps and the Chasti bloke only.
    Anyone else unlikely to make it? Javid? Braverman?

    Edit. I see Sandpit has covered this.

    Nine it is then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Lots of people have made huge sums with crypto, and the volatility means that can still happen. Problem is, the reverse is true as well. I'd view it akin to gambling, and (if I were inclined to invest, which I am not) only bet what you can afford to lose.

    People viewing it as a sure thing or chasing losses are cruising for a financial bruising, sadly.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    IanB2 said:

    While there's been much focus on Kemi's views on wokeness and the trans issues, there's been less focus on her promise to abandon net zero, roll back the state, cut education expenditure and so on.

    I can see her winning the Tory membership over. I'm less persuaded that abandoning net zero and rolling back the state so drastically will win over the typical floating voter.

    I want the Tories removed a long long way from office. Whichever candidate they select as PM. But it is encouraging to think that people like Badenoch can actually be a serious contender for *the Tories*.

    The threat to Labour is simple. She is far more confident, articulate and sane that so many of the various prominent BAME equivalents are in Labour. A black woman who is a successful migrant saying lets cut the crap and focus on people's priorities goes way beyond what Labour can offer.
    Badenoch was born in Wimbledon.
    So she’s migrated north of the river?
    To Nigeria and the USA?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    It would be really funny if Chishti has 50 undeclared supporters

    It wouldn't be funny for whoever's laid him at 1000 on Betfair.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    Something to put on their leaflets at the next GE - "your MP voted to keep Boris in office in July 2022" - to hide the lack of policies.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368
    Andy_JS said:

    The smart thing for Kemi Badenoch to do now would be to move very slightly to the left. She's got the right-wing vote sewn up already. Patel and Braverman's votes will mostly go her way regardless.

    Conciliatiry Kemi. Kind Kemi. To add to the already marvellous Kudos Kemi.
    Shes awesome. Im in love. Dehenna can wait!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Dean, to be fair, only three candidates have odds under 5, and only two more have odds under 20.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    jonny83 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    Political grandstanding, keeping the pressure on and showing their voter base that they are holding the government to account.

    Waste of time really but political parties do stuff like this.
    Maybe have the debate but scrub the vote at the last minute.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited July 12
    dixiedean said:

    I thought this 20 nominations was supposed to cull the field extensively?
    It looks like Shapps and the Chasti bloke only.
    Anyone else unlikely to make it? Javid? Braverman?

    Zahawi, Hunt, Javid, and Braverman are all going to struggle imo.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,659

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    Yes, I think I qualify. I just want some sensible government between now and the election, and RS clears that fairly low bar.

    TT would be my preference but he's far too sensible to appeal to the Party, and fails on other counts too. Glad to see him having a decent run though.
    Fair enough. I can see the 'sensible' argument given what we've had but that also seems a bit 'managed decline' to me.

    He also sounds too much like a conglomerate of Ed Miliband and George Osborne.
    Well it's not my Party so my view is of little interest, if any.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    England’s fielding as good as their batting.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Pulpstar said:

    England's match going about as well as Javid's punt for leadership.

    I'm convinced than ever that only one of the test side and the white ball side can be successful. We are paying the price for winning 4 test matches while chasing in the last innings.

    Alternatively - really bad toss to lose and this could have been India 97 all out...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Lots of people have made huge sums with crypto, and the volatility means that can still happen. Problem is, the reverse is true as well. I'd view it akin to gambling, and (if I were inclined to invest, which I am not) only bet what you can afford to lose.

    People viewing it as a sure thing or chasing losses are cruising for a financial bruising, sadly.

    If you own 1 bitcoin today and do nothing tommorow you'll own one bitcoin* ;)

    * Unless your exchange goes bust.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    It’s not like anyone on public sector payroll can’t hear these threats to their job, and voters these threats to their services - yet so many posters on PB convinced Tories to get a poll bounce from this extensive media coverage.

    Even cuts to fuel duty benefits richer than poorer people, let alone Javid’s promise to cut NHS expenditure to pay for income tax cuts.
    "Slash the state" translates as larger class sizes, more potholes, smaller pensions and longer waiting lists. It only attracts those taxes outweigh their use of public services, or are simply too thick to join the dots.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    From Unherd:

    The formerly normal aspiration to settle and start a family is out of reach for swathes of young people. A fundamental compact between conservative principles, and the party that is supposed to represent them, has been broken.

    Britain tends to think of itself as an equal partner to countries such as France, the Netherlands and Germany in terms of incomes and living standards. This is a collective fantasy, which hasn’t been true for well over a decade. The reality shouldn’t be shocking, yet it remains so: Britain’s incomes and living standards have fallen far behind what were its peer nations only 15 years ago. “Across European countries, only households in Greece and Cyprus saw a worse performance between 2007 and 2018 than the UK,” found the Resolution Foundation.

    Because the reality is that Britain’s national religion is no longer Anglican Christianity. It isn’t even the NHS. It is Pensionerism. Britain is a care home with a navy.

    Yet all attempts to reform this growth-killing inequity end in failure, such is the strength of the homeowner-pensioner lobby.

    Without Brexit to focus on, the Government has lost its sense of purpose. The next leader must be a strategist, cerebral, and yet still a salesman. Someone who recognises that there’s more to winning than winning itself, and declinist managerialism — that a far greater prize is changing peoples’ lives and your country, for the better.

    There’s a similar article in the FT: the new decline of Britain

    The graphs are quite shocking in how UK median income is falling behind, even as we do OK-ish on GDP per capita (suggesting rising inequality)

    Moreover, the turning point in all the graphs is the Great Financial Crisis, not Brexit. Up to 2008 the UK was steaming ahead and even overtaking all west European peers, in 2008 we stumbled and fell, and have never recovered

    Something happened in 2008. The easy answer is we borrowed too much and when credit was squeezed, ouch. But that is true of many countries. What was particular to Britain that changed in 2008?
    We didn't have a proper crash in house prices but instead Brown/Darling and then Cameron/Osborne propped up the market with ever more schemes to increase lending.
    It's more that our financial services industry was proportionately far bigger than anyone else's and produced a much greater proportion of government funds by way of tax. We lost huge numbers of really well paid jobs and we have not replaced them which has driven median income down in a somewhat exaggerated fashion. Those who have remained in work have done ok but the loss of the cream at the top has driven down the averages.
    It is also, possibly, a wider secular trend in the West that is slowly spreading

    The rot started in the USA where median incomes have been treading water for ages - hence Trump. Then Britain fell into the trap. Hence Brexit. France looks like it is following, as income stagnates…

    And so on
    It’s the middle classes being hollowed out across the West, as large industry and manufacturing industries have largely moved to Asia, replaced by low-income warehouse and driving work.
    What I find fascinating is the reaction of a range of people to the idea of having industries based in the UK.

    A considerable chunk of the progressive types have absorbed the idea that you can't compete on price with "PhDs for $1 a week in China". Despite the fact that there is a small thing called productivity to consider. And you can get someone with a PhD to work for you in China for a dollar a week, either.
    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
    Ideas of what is progressive and conservative have shifted quite a bit over the past thirty years.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368
    Pulpstar said:

    The markets have REALLY soured on Hunt and Zahawi, both way way out at 3+ figures.
    Javid was already there.

    £66 now lost by someone or other on Chishti at 1000.0

    Hunt is yesterdays loser. Javid just too dull. Zahawi lacks broad enough appeal and theres a 'what were you up to?!' aspect
    Chishti is this times Graham Brady.
    All gone by tomorrow
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    The betting market has already decided it's down to 5 candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch. Difficult to disagree.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,213
    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993

    The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.

    You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.

    Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.

    The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.

    To put some figures on your insane hyperbole

    GDP per capita

    UK: $46,209

    Spain: $26,238

    Estonia: $21,421

    Latvia: $16,406

    (Source: Trading Economics)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    Applicant said:

    Alistair said:

    Applicant said:

    Just reading about Starmer's call for a VONC...

    Assuming he does win the vote (which he won't), how does it actually achieve his aim of getting a new PM more quickly?

    In the same way that Callaghan remained as PM after he lost the VONC in 1979, Johnson would remain as PM.

    The process to elect a new leader of the Conservative Party is already underway and any general election, the timing of which would still be set by the current administration and so would see a polling date set for later in September.

    So nothing in his cunning plan would achieve the result he seeks. Who is advising Starmer???

    He wants all the Tories who so openly and publicly blew up Johnson to give him their confidence. That's all. Will look great on a leaflet apparently.
    They wouldn't be. They would be giving confidence to the governing party.

    Nope. Every leaflet will have the MP and all the quotes where they have supported the crook.
    So it's nothing more than playing party politics?
    I am shocked, shocked, to discover politics going on in the Houses of Parliament.
    Indeed. If the parties were reversed, all the lefties would be denouncing the Tories for doing it...
    It is perfectly allowable to remind the selectorate and the electorate about the volte-face being undertaken by ex-Johnson supporters as they try to "draw a line under" or "move on from" where they were barely a week ago. If I hear anyone else say "we are where we are" I shall.....I shall.... stub my toe!!!
    It is playing politics, but thats what they do. I think if Johnson had any honour he would have resigned properly and left a caretaker in charge - such as the Deputy PM. But we know he has no honour.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,800

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    Dropping the Barnett formula extra funding would be very popular....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    It would be the final nail in the unionist coffin.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited July 12
    The oddest one I have been able to lay so far this race is Gillian Keegan.

    No idea who she is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
  • NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2
  • Really got their finger on the pulse. WHO CARES
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    Or, to make a wider point, many of the promises and slogans these wanabee PM’s are making now, to woo their geriatric members, will surely be used against them by the opposition parties come the real election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    dixiedean said:

    The prospect of a PM setting out on a promise to slash the State would be a Labour dream right now.

    They can slash the English state if they like. The Scottish state is not their’s to slash.
    So SNP claims of “TORY CUTS!!!” are lies then?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    She would be a huge reset for the government, the Conservative Party and British Politics generally.

    How it would work out in the end I have no idea but it would be interesting to see what happens...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Does anyone want media-led “debates”, as opposed to party-organised hustings with a TV feed for anyone who wants it?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,250

    Really got their finger on the pulse. WHO CARES

    It is deeply troubling to consider what a large chunk of Tory MPs think is important.

    It’s a Catch-22; you have to be mad to win their support, but then you are too mad to win the country. It was the “genius” of Boris that he was able to square that circle.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,368
    edited July 12

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    It seems unlikely. If the STories get back to 20/21 ish then they are running hard defence on 5 seats and theres perhaps 4 I can see them throwing resources at, only 2 of which i think are realistic (and require positive recovery from their current freefall)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Nigelb said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    FPT - as it's probably worth discussing and not getting lost.

    None of the leadership contenders seems to be talking about levelling up. Focus seems to be on shrinking the state, which helps London and the SE. Have the Tories given up on the Red Wall, or do they hope that going large on Chicks with Dicks will obscure the abandonment of levelling up as a policy objective?

    That isn't going to work when I suspect the Labour manifesto will feature HS2E, NPR and quite possibly given the state of Parliament a plan to move Parliament to Manchester

    * Can't really be Birmingham for reasons and as others have pointed out if you move it to a small place it will total dominate the town / city but would leave whole piles of things in London.
    Why couldn't it be Birmingham ?

    The romantic in me would like Colchester, York or Winchester but none of those will happen.
    Too near London especially with HS2 - you would end up with Parliament in Birmingham and most things left where they were.

    And the whole point of the change would be to change the focus of the country away from being London centric.
    Am I missing something? Since when was it Labour policy to move parliament out of London? It’s a pretty extraordinary move
    I didn't say it was policy - but given the state of Parliament it makes sense to firstly have a discussion about it and secondly whether there are votes in it.

    And up North knocking London down a peg or 2 is probably worth a fair few votes.
    The Palace of Westminster will need to be repaired whether or not it remains the home of Parliament.

    A permanent move to another city doesn't take away the need to repair the existing buildings
    Why would it need to be repaired if it's no longer home of Parliament.

    But the cost of repairing an empty building is X or Y times cheaper than doing repairs when the building is being used.
    Because it is a major historic landmark. It is iconic and an important part of our national heritage.

    The idea of it being allowed to slowly disintegrate or even be demolished would be cultural vandalism

    As Andrea Leadsome said in a recent article about the refurb (and she is in charge of it) “the Houses of Parliament is one of the most famous buildings in the world, like the Taj Mahal, it is also a World Heritage site, it belongs to humanity, but it is our job to look after it, however awkward”

    Hard to argue with that

    If you compile a list of the ten most iconic, instantly recognisable buildings in the world Westminster is on there

    Rough list:

    Pyramids
    Parthenon
    Tower of Pisa
    Taj Mahal
    Empire State Bldg
    Eiffel Tower
    Palace of Westminster
    Sydney Opera House
    Burj


    Number ten can be disputed between Stonehenge, Statue of Liberty, The Pantheon, Hagia Sophia, Gobekli Tepe (should be top of the top ten really), Notre Dame, St Basil’s Cathedral, et al, depending on your definition of “building”
    No Colloseum?!
    Good one, yes. Clean forgot. That’s the tenth

    The White House? I know it isn't exactly imposing, but still...
    The White House isn't even in the top two most significant landmarks in its own country. Both the Statue of Liberty and Golden Gate Bridge are surely higher.
    If we are going bridge then the Forth (Railway) Bridge or Sydney Harbour Bridge win that game, surely? The Golden Gate is hardly a unique structure.

    I can understand not including the White House on architectural merit but it is at least instantly recognisable.

    If nobody has to live in the building, then The Great Wall of China should should maybe get a mention too?
    Only once they've built the other three walls
    A pedant points out it would need only be two.
    Another pedant points out 'which Great Wall'? As there are lots. The common perception of one, continous wall is very wrong indeed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    edited July 12

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    Politics needs shaking up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451
    Leon said:

    The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.

    You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.

    Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.

    The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.

    To put some figures on your insane hyperbole

    GDP per capita

    UK: $46,209

    Spain: $26,238

    Estonia: $21,421

    Latvia: $16,406

    (Source: Trading Economics)
    Median incomes would probably show them closer together. Spain, however, was among the countries worst hit in both 2008 and 2020.

    France is probably the best comparitor with the UK. Both in terms of overall income, and in terms of the very wide gap in fortunes between different reasons.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Sandpit said:


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Does anyone want media-led “debates”, as opposed to party-organised hustings with a TV feed for anyone who wants it?
    The media.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    Sandpit said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet has 180 backers, only half the Parliamentary party so far - including 18 who went for the non-runners Patel and Shapps.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview#gid=0

    Looks like a nine-horse race, with only Chrishti unlikely to be nominated.

    Sunak
    Truss
    Mourdaunt
    Tugendhat
    Badenoch
    Zahawi
    Hunt
    Javid
    Braverman

    The other 180-odd don't have to openly support anyone but even if they do I suspect they will coalesce around the front runners because... jobs innit?

    So I am not convinced Zahawi, Hunt, Javid, and Braverman are going to make it.

    What time do we expect to know btw?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,594

    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One problem with replacing Westminster Palace, even temporarily, is that it is utterly enormous in terms of area 112,476 m2

    Bucks Palace is 77,000, British Museum 99,000.

    It's no Palace of the Parliament, Hofburg or Louvre but it is bigger than anywhere else in the UK.

    Having said that do we need 112,476 m2 of floor space for parliament or could we get by with less.

    Considering it is so vast, it is daft that not all MPs can get a seat when the Commons is full!
    The actual chamber would be very easy to replicate in any good sized country house. The offices, less so.

    How many MPs, Lords and hangars on actually work in Westminster though ?
    Is Wentworth Woodhouse still for sale?

    They could build an invisible office block like Ford at Castle Ashby.
    It was sold to a trust who are trying to do it up (slowly).

    MPs would feel right at home with the leaky roof and the shabby 1960s accommodation blocks nearby.
    NEC 190000 sqm of floor space plus large office areas. No doubt the reconfiguration of an exhibition space would present challenges, but large enough venues are available.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,237

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    Pulpstar said:

    The oddest one I have been able to lay so far this race is Gillian Keegan.

    No idea who she is.

    Is that most surprising?
    I don't think Ms. Keegan would make the podium for "oddest".
  • Labour lead by 14% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall Voting Intention (11 July):

    Labour 46% (–)
    Conservative 32% (-3)
    Reform UK 7% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26-27 June

    The culture wars will surely win these back
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    He would almost certainly lose to Labour. I think even Truss (whom I don't like) would have more electoral appeal. Mordaunt is the best hope for Conservative leaning voters. It is a risk because she is unknown, but that is a known unknown.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    jonny83 said:

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
    This stuff should be trivial for any serious candidate to deal with. When the field is narrowed then they can get on to the difficult stuff.

    It's a bit like the first five questions on WWTBAM?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    It's hard to tell if this is a piss take or not.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1546823188012744706
    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs

    I have no idea who the members of the Common Sense Group are but I deduce from their name alone that every last one of them is a fool.
    The paradox of Common Sense: people who claim that it informs their thinking usually lack it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what this VONC tomorrow is supposed to achieve?

    Labour are looking pretty good at the moment looking on high at this Tory fiasco.
    Why would they want to become embroiled without any obvious end goal?

    They seem to want to tie the Tories to Bozo. But hes going.
    The risk is how many will see them looking like student politicians and desperate attention seekers whilst the adults select a new PM.
    If they forced a GE, Bozo remains PM.
    So, essentially, they want a GE. A truism.
    Nah, a GE isn't an option since the demise of FTPA. Even if the VONC passed, Boris would stay on as caretaker PM until the Tory leadership contest produces a result.

    The VONC would have made sense before DACOP, but not now.
    Labour are going to raise Boris meeting KGB in secret, Lebvedevs appointment, Boris use of chequers, and Libdems will probe the Tories on claims Boris is the British Harvey Weinstein. The point here is to smear all the Tories in a coating of smelly Boris and force Tory poll % as low as they can,

    That is as far from student politics or pointless, as politics can be.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?
    Dunno, but No to Indyref II is bound to figure in it somewhere.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    Common sense group decide that with a war in Ukraine, a cost of living crisis, fractured relations with our neighbours including problems in NI, and declining standards and confidence in public life that the priority for the next leader is statues. Sounds closer to monster raving loony than common sense to me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    4. Thanks to No.10 his negatives are out there.
    5. Has had a serious job at the top of government for a long time.
    6. And related. Your average punter knows who he is. (Although that may not be in his favour).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Sandpit, not a fan of political debates given how they can dominate elections and are wide open to incompetent hosting and groupthink effects. Especially if one or more of those determining the worm (running approval/disapproval) has a very set view.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    jonny83 said:

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
    Common Sense Group? FFS, bunch of small brained populists no doubt. Politicians are meant to deep thinking not gut instinct gutter politics. The sooner these types of Johnson-apologising-buffoons are marginalised the better.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    edited July 12
    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
    Some have declared support but Ross is not saying as he wants to work effectively with whoever wins.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 72
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    Politics needs shaking up.
    The Yorubian Candidate
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    GIN1138 said:

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    She would be a huge reset for the government, the Conservative Party and British Politics generally.

    How it would work out in the end I have no idea but it would be interesting to see what happens...
    I suspect the way it works out for whoever wins is heavy defeat at the next GE because... the economy.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    Really? Then what do you make of how she says she is going to do it, then?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?
    Dunno, but No to Indyref II is bound to figure in it somewhere.
    Found some details lurking under an ad (for some reason my adblocker didn't work) - have added them below.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,530
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    Politics needs shaking up.
    Kemi would torpedo into oblivion Biden's 'you ain't black unless you vote Dem/left ' schtick.

    Yebbut the British conservatives just put Kemi in charge of the world's fifth largest economy Joe mate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    Sandpit said:

    Guido’s spreadsheet has 180 backers, only half the Parliamentary party so far - including 18 who went for the non-runners Patel and Shapps.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview#gid=0

    Looks like a nine-horse race, with only Chrishti unlikely to be nominated.

    Sunak
    Truss
    Mourdaunt
    Tugendhat
    Badenoch
    Zahawi
    Hunt
    Javid
    Braverman

    The other 180-odd don't have to openly support anyone but even if they do I suspect they will coalesce around the front runners because... jobs innit?

    So I am not convinced Zahawi, Hunt, Javid, and Braverman are going to make it.

    What time do we expect to know btw?
    Nominations close at 6pm so I presume shortly thereafter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,147

    The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.

    Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.

    Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
    Neo-gothic monstrosity.

    Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    Andy_JS said:

    The betting market has already decided it's down to 5 candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch. Difficult to disagree.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    The betting market has decided it's down to 3 or 4 candidates: Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss and maybe Badenoch. Tugendhat is at 20:1, which translates as "very unlikely". Badenoch's 14:1 not much better.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,651
    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I have kept saying to you that you shouldn't be so hard on yourself, Leon.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.

    I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.

    Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.

    I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
    Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.

    I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
    Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
    There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.

    Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
    The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.

    1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two.
    2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo)
    3. No to more borrowing.

    Anyone got anything else?
    4. Thanks to No.10 his negatives are out there.
    5. Has had a serious job at the top of government for a long time.
    6. And related. Your average punter knows who he is. (Although that may not be in his favour).
    7. A lot of people will fondly remember him for paying them to do nothing at home for a few months back in 2020.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    Politics needs shaking up.
    That’s what led Italians to vote for Berlusconi then Lega Nord then the Cinque Stelle. Not much good it has done them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,083
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    It's hard to tell if this is a piss take or not.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1546823188012744706
    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs

    I have no idea who the members of the Common Sense Group are but I deduce from their name alone that every last one of them is a fool.
    If they were just a little smarter, they'd at least have hit the open goal of calling themselves the Commons Sense Group
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,445
    eek said:


    📺 Sky News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Monday 18 July

    📺 Then ITV News announced it would hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Sunday 17 July

    📺 Now Channel 4 News has announced it will hold first Tory leadership TV debate on Friday 15 July


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1546864962605293570

    Sad to say - I won't be able to watch C4's debate because I will be watching Abba.
    The Winner Takes it All in both cases.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,250
    edited July 12
    Leon said:

    The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.

    You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.

    Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.

    The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.

    To put some figures on your insane hyperbole

    GDP per capita

    UK: $46,209

    Spain: $26,238

    Estonia: $21,421

    Latvia: $16,406

    (Source: Trading Economics)
    The numbers all look really weird at the moment due to Covid. For example, IMF and World Bank suggest NZ has overtaken UK but I am skeptical.

    I am most interested in PPP median income, ie what is the ordinary living standard of the average person.

    For the UK it is also highly instructive to look at UK with London & SE and UK without. Sobering.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Applicant said:

    jonny83 said:

    NEW

    First all MP Tory leadership hustings is **tonight**.

    Any candidate with over 20 MPs support will be grilled on their approach to the culture wars including controversial statues and British history by the Common Sense Group of Tory MPs. 1/2

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_Group

    This 'Anti Woke' group? Interesting evening ahead for these candidates.
    This stuff should be trivial for any serious candidate to deal with. When the field is narrowed then they can get on to the difficult stuff.

    It's a bit like the first five questions on WWTBAM?
    I really want to hear Penny’s answer to the “Women” question. The other four main contenders are all okay on culture stuff.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi was born in London but only because her mother required specialist maternity care.

    She was raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She even carries a trace of Nigerian in her accent.

    Although I am poles apart from her politically, if she became PM it would something of a cultural shockwave, and that would be quite delightful.

    Politics needs shaking up.
    That was the reason people voted for Johnson, and indeed Trump. These did not turn out to be good choices.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    I was expecting this from the lefty’s.
    But it's rather telling that Mordaunt wasn't.
    Penny does not come out of praising Jo in a bad light at all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    Carnyx said:

    Penny Mordaunt claims she will break through SNP yellow wall in Scotland if she replaces Boris Johnson as Prime Minister

    A front-runner in the race towards becoming Prime Minister has claimed she will ‘turn the tide against the SNP’ in Scotland.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/penny-mordaunt-claims-she-will-break-through-snp-yellow-wall-in-scotland-if-she-replaces-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-3764620

    Clueless.

    TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.

    Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?

    Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

    The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
    Has Ruth Davidson come out for any of the candidates? She might have some sway
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    From Unherd:

    The formerly normal aspiration to settle and start a family is out of reach for swathes of young people. A fundamental compact between conservative principles, and the party that is supposed to represent them, has been broken.

    Britain tends to think of itself as an equal partner to countries such as France, the Netherlands and Germany in terms of incomes and living standards. This is a collective fantasy, which hasn’t been true for well over a decade. The reality shouldn’t be shocking, yet it remains so: Britain’s incomes and living standards have fallen far behind what were its peer nations only 15 years ago. “Across European countries, only households in Greece and Cyprus saw a worse performance between 2007 and 2018 than the UK,” found the Resolution Foundation.

    Because the reality is that Britain’s national religion is no longer Anglican Christianity. It isn’t even the NHS. It is Pensionerism. Britain is a care home with a navy.

    Yet all attempts to reform this growth-killing inequity end in failure, such is the strength of the homeowner-pensioner lobby.

    Without Brexit to focus on, the Government has lost its sense of purpose. The next leader must be a strategist, cerebral, and yet still a salesman. Someone who recognises that there’s more to winning than winning itself, and declinist managerialism — that a far greater prize is changing peoples’ lives and your country, for the better.

    There’s a similar article in the FT: the new decline of Britain

    The graphs are quite shocking in how UK median income is falling behind, even as we do OK-ish on GDP per capita (suggesting rising inequality)

    Moreover, the turning point in all the graphs is the Great Financial Crisis, not Brexit. Up to 2008 the UK was steaming ahead and even overtaking all west European peers, in 2008 we stumbled and fell, and have never recovered

    Something happened in 2008. The easy answer is we borrowed too much and when credit was squeezed, ouch. But that is true of many countries. What was particular to Britain that changed in 2008?
    We didn't have a proper crash in house prices but instead Brown/Darling and then Cameron/Osborne propped up the market with ever more schemes to increase lending.
    It's more that our financial services industry was proportionately far bigger than anyone else's and produced a much greater proportion of government funds by way of tax. We lost huge numbers of really well paid jobs and we have not replaced them which has driven median income down in a somewhat exaggerated fashion. Those who have remained in work have done ok but the loss of the cream at the top has driven down the averages.
    It is also, possibly, a wider secular trend in the West that is slowly spreading

    The rot started in the USA where median incomes have been treading water for ages - hence Trump. Then Britain fell into the trap. Hence Brexit. France looks like it is following, as income stagnates…

    And so on
    It’s the middle classes being hollowed out across the West, as large industry and manufacturing industries have largely moved to Asia, replaced by low-income warehouse and driving work.
    What I find fascinating is the reaction of a range of people to the idea of having industries based in the UK.

    A considerable chunk of the progressive types have absorbed the idea that you can't compete on price with "PhDs for $1 a week in China". Despite the fact that there is a small thing called productivity to consider. And you can get someone with a PhD to work for you in China for a dollar a week, either.
    It was globalised capitalism and free trade aka Thatcherism that did this, not "progressive types".
    But it's the absorption of the idea - to a ludicrous excess - by the progressive end of the spectrum that is fascinating.

    The productivity numbers make it quite clear. There isn't much of a gap.

    Further the productivity levels of a country are very closely related to the infrastructure - physical, social and legal - of that country. Healthcare, roads and sewers increase national productivity.

    From that you can actually build a business case that closes for a level of state spending on the above.

    Rather than "All the jobs will go to China, must crucify some billionaire to get enough money to kind of run the NHS".

    AKA Affordable Social Democracy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Leon said:

    It’s remarkable how many “racist, classist, sexist” PB right wingers are eager to see a white working class woman, or a young black women, take the Tory leadership and become Prime Minister

    It’s almost as if the caricatures are BOLLOCKS

    I had this at the weekend from a labour supporter who seemed disgusted that the Tories might have as many a seven minority ethnic people as potential leader. They really do think they have a right to all minority votes.
This discussion has been closed.