politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While we await the Cummings presser my nomination for the book

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  • DougSeal
    DougSeal Posts: 12,785
    I think the Bernard Castle thing is what the Govt's critics will concentrate on.
  • Overall, I think that was a disaster.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    Laura lining up a nice easy delivery..
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    Oh lor.

    Je never regrette rien.
  • That response to Laura is a disaster in itself.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074

    Its very weird look with him sitting at a table and the journalists having to come up to a mic.

    Our unelected PM :)
  • BluestBlue
    BluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Overall, I think that was a disaster.

    So no scalp today then?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    So this just boils down to whether you think they should have driven to Durham and then back again a fortnight later. Yawn.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    He is now giving it the media twisting the story.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    He has closed down all the potential questions with his statement. He has done well. It doesn't let Boris off the hook though.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    Party of around ten drinking on the roadside terrace outside a local pub this afternoon.
    The Dom effect ?
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    edited May 2020
    Does anybody actually believe that he rationalised his actions as he has now described as the events happened?
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    Genuine pants-shitting comedy here. Multiple breeches of the basic regulations around not going back to work when your missus has symptoms. And not driving 260 miles. Not taking a 30 minute test drive to see if you can see well enough to drive.

    Number 10 attempting to Tunnel to Java. And Dom - "I have to take decisions like this every day". Wow. You're judgement is that shit and you say you are essential to the Downing Street operation
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    Now he’s blaming the media.

    What a fool.

    Next he’ll be blaming Stephen Kinnock.

    It was not a complicated situation. It was a straightforward one that you got totally wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2020
    He gives this statement Friday / Sat, steps down, this story would have been done and dusted by Sunday and the government would have been undamaged, and Big Dom would have been back in government by the end of the year.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    glw said:

    Does anybody actually beleive that he rationalised his actions as he has now described as the events happened?

    100%
  • The word "sorry" might have helped.
  • sarissa
    sarissa Posts: 2,190
    He returned to work on the 14th April being able to get childcare that he couldn’t on the 28/29th March?
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    Is Dom wearing one of Boris' big shirts?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813

    He has closed down all the potential questions with his statement. He has done well. It doesn't let Boris off the hook though.

    He still needs to resign, he's breached quarantine.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited May 2020
    An extraordinary scene this, in the rose garden.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    "I think I behaved reasonably"

    So, the story rolls on.
  • I'm not really sure the argument that he thought he showed good judgement is going to help the fact millions of people did not do the same. Seems like a kick in the teeth to me.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Benidorm and Ibiza back on this summer.

    The Spanish government says no quarantine for foreign tourists from July 1st

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52800611
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    edited May 2020

    This explanation would have worked if it had been given immediately along with a bit of contrition, perhaps.

    but then we wouldn't have had the big screen outside his house, the absolute nadir of this crisis so far.
    I hope you're referring to the 'crisis' of the PM's chief advisor being revealed to be a self-entitled, law breaking, arrogant prick rather than the crisis of tens of thousands of people dying of Covid-19?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292

    The word "sorry" might have helped.

    Even if he wasn't sorry? I prefer honesty.
  • BluestBlue
    BluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    He gives this statement Friday / Sat, steps down, this story would have been done and dusted by Sunday and the government would have been undamaged, and Big Dom would have been back in government by the end of the year.

    Why gives his opponents the satisfaction?

    Now they can just get stuffed with extreme prejudice :smile:
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    *cough*Manzikert*cough*

    Lovely present for Starmer, though.
  • eadric said:

    The word "sorry" might have helped.

    He said sorry earlier on
    He did not say sorry for breaking the rules.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074

    So this just boils down to whether you think they should have driven to Durham and then back again a fortnight later. Yawn.

    STAY HOME
    PROTECT THE NHS
    SAVE LIVES
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
  • El_Capitano
    El_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    This would work as a halfway effective response to an interrogation by Durham Constabulary.

    It will do nothing to reconcile the public to Cummings and Johnson. No one, but no one, is going to have their minds changed by this.

    So why's he doing it?
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,268
    edited May 2020
    How does this compare with Mrs C's account as published? Can we believe that he hasn't been tested?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Why wasnt he tested?
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    Even Peston tripping him up now.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110

    The word "sorry" might have helped.

    He is an absolute pro with this interview compared to Boris' calamity yesterday.

    He is clearly a bastard but I am not wholly unimpressed.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926

    So this just boils down to whether you think they should have driven to Durham and then back again a fortnight later. Yawn.

    STAY HOME
    PROTECT THE NHS
    SAVE LIVES
    But there is room for discretion is there not? That's s slogan, sure, you try to follow it as far as at all possible.
  • BluestBlue
    BluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Maybe Cummings really is The Master after all... :wink:
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    eadric said:

    The word "sorry" might have helped.

    He said sorry earlier on
    He said he was sorry for being late. And gave no reason for his tardiness...
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    I bet this press conference doesn't change many minds. All the people who detested Cummings before will continue to do so, and those who like him will continue to do so.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not sure this is the BBC breaking news headline the government was hoping for:

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1264947585476964352?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2020

    Why wasnt he tested?

    At the time, do you remember the media outrage that "privileged" people like Prince Charles got tested that weren't in the specific category.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Enough to hang on. Not enough to satisfy his critics, even those criticising in good faith rather than for partisan reasons.
  • https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1264947907217821696

    The car thing sounds like nonsense to me
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    edited May 2020

    Overall, I think that was a disaster.

    I do not.

    I think he came over as reasonable and contrite and many will wonder why he is such a bogey man

    I blame Boris for his dreadful presentation last night for making it worse, much worse, and why I believe Boris needs to go on paternity leave

    Some things have been revealed that t needed clarification including the police did not consider any further action was required, the guardian and mirror falsely accused him of a second visit, he explained his visit to Barnard Castle , and Boris was not told initially
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    In fairness, Piers wouldn’t be convinced by anything. He even tried to deny the forgeries at the Mirror after he’d been sacked.

    But you can’t blame him for suggesting this hasn’t quite cut it.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    eadric said:

    The word "sorry" might have helped.

    He said sorry earlier on
    That was for being late!
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    ydoethur said:

    Even Peston tripping him up now.

    Pesto far more probing than the lovely Laura was.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463

    Why wasnt he tested?

    At the time, do you remember the media outrage that "privileged" people like Prince Charles got tested that weren't in the specific category.
    I don't understand why he wasn't tested, he'd been around a lot of people who got it, so a test would have been justified.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    Load of shite questioning from Beth. Useless.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    @Big_G_NorthWales are you really buying this nonsense about driving to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight, which as you know, is also a breach of the rules, and has nothing to do with his kid.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950

    Why wasnt he tested?

    At the time, do you remember the media outrage that "privileged" people like Prince Charles got tested that weren't in the specific category.
    Indeed.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2020
    It is a good point. He must have known this would come out, given the neighbours must have known he wasn't there for 2 weeks, the plod visit and the trip to the hospital. If they had got out in front of this, given a statement, probably far less of an issue.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074

    So this just boils down to whether you think they should have driven to Durham and then back again a fortnight later. Yawn.

    STAY HOME
    PROTECT THE NHS
    SAVE LIVES
    But there is room for discretion is there not? That's s slogan, sure, you try to follow it as far as at all possible.
    "Do as I say, not as I do!"
  • Survives for what?

    For goodness sake he broke the rules and admitted to it!
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    It's a non story.

    Now - let's get the economy restarted and the pubs open!
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256

    Overall, I think that was a disaster.

    I do not.

    I think he came over as reasonable and contrite and many will wonder why he is such a bogey man

    I blame Boris for his dreadful presentation last night for making it worse, much worse, and why I believe Boris needs to go on paternity leave

    Some things have been revealed that t needed clarification including the police did not consider any further action was required, the guardian and mirror falsely accused him of a second visit, he explained his visit to Barnard Castle , and Boris was not told initially
    Unfortunately his explanation doesn’t cut it.

    It should do, actually, because there is no good reason to stop people driving around in closed groups. But his own government’s rules did prohibit it. It was not exercise nor was it shopping.
  • Andy_Cooke
    Andy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Any reasonable parent who was worried about his eyesight would certainly bundle their 4-year-old into a car and go for a 30 mile drive in the country.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Do we know that the "public mood" is on this? Media keep referring to it, does anyone give a toss other than Twitter, really, let's be honest?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    Go Beth!!!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Beth being predictably shrill, asking him when he stopped beating his wife.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    The guidance around small children is for lockdown not quarantine. Or do people not give a shit about the difference ?
  • DougSeal
    DougSeal Posts: 12,785
    edited May 2020
    To me it just sounded like he prepared a statement to fit the available evidence justifying his actions ex-post facto. The bit about going to Barnard Castle to see if he felt well enough to go back was especially unconvincing..
  • He might have got away with it, without that ridiculous statement on driving 30 miles to test his eyesight, with his CHILD in the car
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2020
    glw said:

    Why wasnt he tested?

    At the time, do you remember the media outrage that "privileged" people like Prince Charles got tested that weren't in the specific category.
    I don't understand why he wasn't tested, he'd been around a lot of people who got it, so a test would have been justified.
    I don't understand why all the major players in government weren't been tested daily tbh. No reasonable person really thought what Boris jumped the queue on testing, outrageous.

    The behaviour of lots of world leaders is baffling to me on this. Not just Trump or Boris, but Merkel got exposed, Trudeau got exposed.
  • Why wasnt he tested?

    Not seeking to get tested and then going to a place where medical assistance in case of an urgent emergency would be much further away than in his home in Islington seems a little bit irresposnsible, doesn't it?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    eadric said:

    The word "sorry" might have helped.

    He said sorry earlier on
    He should have said sorry on Friday.

    He, and the government, have two unenviable choices:

    1. Allow "the mob" to get Cummings scalp, and he resigns.

    2. Allow the story to run on for days (or perhaps even weeks) as CCTV footage is unearthed showing the Cummings family in a service station

    I suspect they'll go for (2). And I suspect they'll regret it. They'll have managed to avoid looking weak, but at the expense of pissing off a lot of moderate Tories. The "one rule of them, another for us" meme will not be easily dispelled.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    eadric said:

    The stammering is a good look. Makes him appear hesitant but sincere, a little emotional

    Laurence Olivier lives!
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    Ave_it said:

    It's a non story.

    Now - let's get the economy restarted and the pubs open!

    Especially in Barnard Castle.
  • eadric said:

    Overall, I think that was a disaster.

    I do not.

    I think he came over as reasonable and contrite and many will wonder why he is such a bogey man

    I blame Boris for his dreadful presentation last night for making it worse, much worse, and why I believe Boris needs to go on paternity leave

    Some things have been revealed that t needed clarification including the police did not consider any further action was required, the guardian and mirror falsely accused him of a second visit, he explained his visit to Barnard Castle , and Boris was not told initially
    Also his kid went to hospital. May not be relevant, but will generate sympathy
    Again, is he unique? No.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950

    It is a good point. He must have known this would come out, given the neighbours must have known he wasn't there for 2 weeks, the

    plod visit and the trip to the hospital. If they had got out in front of this, given a statement, probably far less
    of an issue.
    It’s a balance. One might argue that it’s pretty unfair that he’s had to disclose that his son went to hospital.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Anyway, back to my afternoon task of repairing a brick path...
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    The lack of experience in press conferences is very visible - he read off the prepared statement without a hitch, but is stumbling badly with fairly predictable questions.

    To be fair the statement sounded quite plausible, but I think the repeated refusal to apologise is a fatal flaw.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    He should still resign.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Even I am feeling sorry for him, it is a public flogging. Excruciating to listen to.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804

    Anyway, back to my afternoon task of repairing a brick path...

    Tsk Richard, you didn't furlough the staff did you?
  • squareroot2
    squareroot2 Posts: 7,097
    ydoethur said:

    In fairness, Piers wouldn’t be convinced by anything. He even tried to deny the forgeries at the Mirror after he’d been sacked.

    But you can’t blame him for suggesting this hasn’t quite cut it.
    Piers is all wind and piss jumping on any bandwagon that keeps him in the spotlight.
  • BluestBlue
    BluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020

    Do we know that the "public mood" is on this? Media keep referring to it, does anyone give a toss other than Twitter, really, let's be honest?

    Almost certainly not. You can feel the fading of the embers and the evaporation of the froth with every passing minute...
  • OldBasing
    OldBasing Posts: 173
    All this driving around to/from and around County Durham from London. Didn’t he stop anywhere for fuel?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    edited May 2020
    My father has said by his reckoning Cummings has broken quarantine (not just lockdown) at least three times. That's utterly criminal from a public health point of view.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    Ave_it said:

    It's a non story.

    Now - let's get the economy restarted and the pubs open!

    You plebs can go to the pub!

    I just want to feel safe enough to be able to complete my conquest of ScotRail by doing those last two trains west and north of Inverness. :)
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    Irrespective of the coronavirus restrictions, driving with impaired eyesight and driving while so ill that you could barely walk are offences in themselves.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    So, essentially, what do we know now that we didn't know half an hour ago, except that he went back to Downing Street after being with his wife who was showing symptoms, and that he himself was still showing symptoms when he drove to Barnard Castle?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    eadric said:

    Overall, I think that was a disaster.

    I do not.

    I think he came over as reasonable and contrite and many will wonder why he is such a bogey man

    I blame Boris for his dreadful presentation last night for making it worse, much worse, and why I believe Boris needs to go on paternity leave

    Some things have been revealed that t needed clarification including the police did not consider any further action was required, the guardian and mirror falsely accused him of a second visit, he explained his visit to Barnard Castle , and Boris was not told initially
    Also his kid went to hospital. May not be relevant, but will generate sympathy
    The problem is he has not apologised, yes there were difficult circumstances with his child etc but that is what viewers will have looked for at least even if he stays
  • El_Capitano
    El_Capitano Posts: 4,251

    He might have got away with it, without that ridiculous statement on driving 30 miles to test his eyesight, with his CHILD in the car

    That's brilliant, isn't it? Go for a drive to see whether or not you're fit to drive?

    "Sir, can I ask you to breathe into this bag, please?"

    "Well, offisher, I'd thought I'd just drive for 30 milesh to see if I'm drunk."
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    That was a reasonable explanation which is what the law asks for. Same rule for everyone.
  • DougSeal
    DougSeal Posts: 12,785

    Do we know that the "public mood" is on this? Media keep referring to it, does anyone give a toss other than Twitter, really, let's be honest?

    And the Mail Online comments section. And the thousands of people writing to their Tory MPs. Yeah - we know what the public mood is.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,110
    Go Gary!
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    rpjs said:

    Irrespective of the coronavirus restrictions, driving with impaired eyesight and driving while so ill that you could barely walk are offences in themselves.

    Indeed.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347

    Enough to hang on. Not enough to satisfy his critics, even those criticising in good faith rather than for partisan reasons.

    Indeed.
    And the account might have been a great deal more convincing if it hadn’t taken days to emerge (see the ‘lawyered‘ comments above).

    Why could this not have all been said when the story first broke, rather than waiting - and then blaming the press for their speculation ?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714

    Do we know that the "public mood" is on this? Media keep referring to it, does anyone give a toss other than Twitter, really, let's be honest?

    Almost certainly not. You can feel the fading of the embers and the evaporation of the froth with every passing minute...
    Guys: when people like @MaxPB - no Corbyn loving Remoaner - are talking about tearing up their Conservative membership cards over this, then you have to recognise that at least some people who voted Tory last time around are not particularly happy about this.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    It's a non story.

    Now - let's get the economy restarted and the pubs open!

    You plebs can go to the pub!

    I just want to feel safe enough to be able to complete my conquest of ScotRail by doing those last two trains west and north of Inverness. :)
    Strong call Sunil - I have done both the lines, both are well worth doing and each offer spectacular but quite contrasting views. You should be able to go in July - do it.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709

    That was a reasonable explanation which is what the law asks for. Same rule for everyone.

    What was the “reasonable” explanation for making a pleasure drive to Barnard Castle?
  • MattW
    MattW Posts: 28,302

    My father has said by his reckoning Cummings has broken quarantine (not just lockdown) at least three times. That's utterly criminal from a public health point of view.

    There are two halves to that claim.

    One is whether there was significant risk to others, which has not been convincingly established.

    The other is to do with public perception, on which Cummings has just attempted to skewer media reporting.

    We 'll see how it plays.
This discussion has been closed.