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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While we await the Cummings presser my nomination for the book

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While we await the Cummings presser my nomination for the bookshelf of the pandemic

My nomination for the book shelf of the pandemic https://t.co/96GyYQTOFC

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,916
    I expect this has already been said, but these crowds jostling for space outside Dom's door... one law for the press and one for the plebs!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Is he another "apolitical" Bishop who cannot keep his trap shut.?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,894

  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,574
    He doesn't need a press conference to resign. I wonder what is going on.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    The stage has been set, the audience is in place, the chorus hovers in the wings, and all await the arrival of the player...

    Dom does love his drama.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,080
    Whatever he does. The public is not interested in the legal technicalities.
    They are interested in the spirit of them. And the way they were commonly understood to apply.
    If they were understood incorrectly...Well who's fault was that?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707
    RobD said:

    He doesn't need a press conference to resign. I wonder what is going on.

    You're a PB Tory. Surely you can read the mind of your leader (aka the lying overweight buffoon)?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,574
    murali_s said:

    RobD said:

    He doesn't need a press conference to resign. I wonder what is going on.

    You're a PB Tory. Surely you can read the mind of your leader (aka the lying overweight buffoon)?
    We are indeed of one mind. I just forget whose mind it is.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,792
    FPT:
    In case anyone was wondering what a Dominic Cummings speech looks like:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,894

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green once tried his hand at employment law against me so I know he is not infallible - indeed it was a bit embarrassing. But he knows his constitutional and criminal onions.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,015
    The damage is done. The Cummings press conference will convince those who want to be convinced, but Johnson is weaker today than he was last Monday. There is no getting around that.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 9,565

    The stage has been set, the audience is in place, the chorus hovers in the wings, and all await the arrival of the player...

    Dom does love his drama.

    'The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
    The Middle Class was quite prepared.
    But as it is! . . . My language fails!
    Go out and govern New South Wales!"'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,541
    DougSeal said:

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green once tried his hand at employment law against me so I know he is not infallible - indeed it was a bit embarrassing. But he knows his constitutional and criminal onions.
    Was this in court, or on Twitter? :D
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,916
    Mr Urquhart,

    We need more Covid cases. Think of the vaccine trials.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    edited May 2020
    Now if he had just gone straight away, everybody would now be distracted by the lovely sunny bank holiday*, takeaway beer and ice cream and idiots crowding on beaches.

    He could do his soft soap interview next week about making a panicked decision, the difficulties of having an autistic child, etc etc etc and be back in government before Christmas.

    And Boris could have done a press conference, giving the big dangers of Covid, he knows personally, can't have one rule for one, protect the great NHS, yadda yadda yadda.

    * except me, who is working.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,288
    Will Cummings still be in post on the 1st of June?

    Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
    PP/Betfair: 5/4 go, 4/7 stay
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,894

    DougSeal said:

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green once tried his hand at employment law against me so I know he is not infallible - indeed it was a bit embarrassing. But he knows his constitutional and criminal onions.
    Was this in court, or on Twitter? :D
    His employer client threatened my employee client, who had resigned, with court action. It never got to court for the simple reason he was talking bollocks and it was obvious his client didn’t have the money or bottle for the massive claim being threatened. It did result in some interesting correspondence though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green is a partisan political hack who has lost his fair share of cases. His word is not law. Law is law.

    I actually though agree with him that what matters is the word reasonable. I said the other day that reasonable is a word used in law for good reason just as David says.

    Whether his actions are legal or not depend upon whether they were reasonable in his circumstances. I completely agree with that 100%.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,159
    I have just seen somebody on twitter say that Captain Tom should behead Cummings on live TV. That would be the perfect vignette for Britain 2020.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    Now what was that rule again...oh yes spinners, should never be seen and should never become the story.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,894

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green is a partisan political hack who has lost his fair share of cases. His word is not law. Law is law.

    I actually though agree with him that what matters is the word reasonable. I said the other day that reasonable is a word used in law for good reason just as David says.

    Whether his actions are legal or not depend upon whether they were reasonable in his circumstances. I completely agree with that 100%.
    His litigation success rate is 100% better than yours. All litigators have lost their fair share of cases. It goes with the job.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,719
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:

    FPT for EdmundinTokyy

    Ta, that's interesting, but it doesn't quite explain - to me - why Japan has done so amazingly well despite having a pretty shambolic response.

    An innate genetic and/or cultural advantage against this kind of virus (plus masks FFS) makes sense to me: it explains why East Asia in general has done so well

    The masks probably help a bit, also there's a lot of pre-existing anti-flu infrastructure like cleaning door handles, not needing door handles in the first place etc. (Lots of detail here from someone with a weak immune system due to cancer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biVlGogYDfI )

    However, if you compare the response to the cases, it's very clear that you have:
    - Fast growth -> Response -> Slow decline -> Complacency -> Fast growth -> Strong response -> decline

    So any theory that's based on something *not* involving the response can't be much of the story, or you wouldn't see the growth phases before the response and during the complacency period.

    Also the shambles probably helped a bit, because after screwing up the cruise ship situation so badly, the government took the thing seriously enough to do the early response (cancel events, WFH where possible, close schools).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    edited May 2020
    I thought the lockdown restriction comms was bad, the pre-briefing leaks for a week before with all ministers saying you have to wait another week before anything confirmed, the leak of the slogan the morning before, not having the detailed documents released until the next day...but the dealing with Cummings scandal is different league in terms of piss poor political management.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    In case anyone was wondering what a Dominic Cummings speech looks like:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4

    Unpopular opinion: I find him quite personable, if prickly, and he is interestingly smart
    He tries some independent thinking.

    Which is why he so hated by vested interests of all types.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited May 2020
    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,399
    Ladbrokes have a Buzzword Bingo market. Sorry 1/2, Apologise 1/1, Bizmark 50/1. Other words available.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821
    dixiedean said:

    Whatever he does. The public is not interested in the legal technicalities.
    They are interested in the spirit of them. And the way they were commonly understood to apply.
    If they were understood incorrectly...Well who's fault was that?

    Absolutely.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,789
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    We must not understate that although some converted red to blue seats have massive Tory majorities, others are very marginal.

    The top 60 or so Labour target seats have majorities under 7000. That's not exactly a lot of people to piss off before the Tory majority gets torpedoed.

    I am not persuaded that the size of the majority is as key as the speed with which the pendulum swung. Whilst acknowledging that longer term demographic trends are present, it is far from obvious that a sudden big - indeed massive in several cases - swing such as was seen in some seats such as Sedgefield, Durham NW, Grimsby,Leigh, Bassetlaw et al implies that they have changed their alleigance on a permanent basis - particularly in the context of the Corbyn and Brexit factors no longer being relevant. I suspect that such seats with substantial Tory majorities in 2019 are more winnable for Labout than many others which on paper are far more marginal.
    It is cultural change, see also Australia, the US, Canada and France and Italy.

    The skilled white working class is moving right, the upper middle class to the liberal left
    On the current definitions, Michael Foot would be populist right and Margaret Thatcher would be liberal left.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Cummings doesn’t like to look weak so couldn’t initially bear having to give an apology or saying he panicked and was worried about his child .

    If his child is autistic then some of the flak will go but still why didn’t he just make a statement on Saturday .

    He must surely realize that saying anything that isn’t true will definitely be the end .

    If the child doesn’t have any specific issues then I’m not sure an apology will wash now .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    edited May 2020
    If Cummings had gone straight away, other than the Guardian and the twitterati, I think the most the public would remember of this in a week was something something, that weird bloke, something, had covid, something, broke the rules or something...ohhhhh beeeerrrrrrr.....and a month, no recollection at all.

    Nobody is talking about Professor Pantsdown, and he is still assisting the government and nailed on come a second wave he will be back on SAGE in person.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,475
    FPT


    Cummings aside, looking at the amended regulations it is now legal to move home.

    My question is:
    Is it therefore legal to move in with others?
    I don't see anything in the guidance specifically prohibiting it or addressing it at all.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/government-advice-on-home-moving-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821
    He is going to explain very precisely what he did and which regulations and laws he didn't violate and will in short baffle with bullshit.

    And people will say bollocks it's one law for you and another for the plebs.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,053
    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,479
    RobD said:

    He doesn't need a press conference to resign. I wonder what is going on.

    Just think how much your head would be turned if there were a successful film starring Benedict Cumberbatch as you. My theory: he is going to go, but he wants to seal the legacy by out-Cumberbatching Cumberbatch, out-Tuckering Tucker and out-Campbelling Campbell (see in particular Campbell's self-invited channel 4 appearance in 2003).

    In other words, it will be classic Dom. Its only purpose is to be classic Dom.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721
    Surely he's been asked to apologise?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green is a partisan political hack who has lost his fair share of cases. His word is not law. Law is law.

    I actually though agree with him that what matters is the word reasonable. I said the other day that reasonable is a word used in law for good reason just as David says.

    Whether his actions are legal or not depend upon whether they were reasonable in his circumstances. I completely agree with that 100%.
    His litigation success rate is 100% better than yours. All litigators have lost their fair share of cases. It goes with the job.
    Indeed. So he can be right or he can be wrong just as I said.

    Though as it happens and as I said after saying he could be wrong: I agree with him. I said to you on Saturday that reasonable has a meaning in law and is used for a good reason. Here David Allen Green is saying the exact same thing as I said three days ago.

    You didn't agree with me on Saturday. Do you agree with David when he's now saying the same thing I said?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    Possible that we're now at less than 100 hospital deaths per day in England.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,189
    stjohn said:

    Ladbrokes have a Buzzword Bingo market. Sorry 1/2, Apologise 1/1, Bizmark 50/1. Other words available.

    Not tempted by any, but always good fun.

    I hope Cummings comes out swinging. I think they’ve made a terrible error, but he might as well go down fighting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,645
    stjohn said:

    Ladbrokes have a Buzzword Bingo market. Sorry 1/2, Apologise 1/1, Bizmark 50/1. Other words available.

    Would be very Cummings to "I'm sorry you..." us.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821
    edited May 2020
    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,600

    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.

    He`d just do that by letter, surely?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    edited May 2020
    eadric said:

    This is beyond nonsensical. Cummings is being condemned for answering all the questions by the same people who condemn him for avoiding all the questions.

    Odious. They really do just hate him. Boulton is a toad.

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1264886159466954752?s=20

    Its the same mentality that condemned him for not going to meetings and then condemned him for going to meetings.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/25/explain-apologise-move-on-johnson-statement-dominic-cummings

    "The contrast is glaring with other countries where experts – not politicians – lead briefings to the public on the reasons for evolving policies and the risks involved. Even in Sweden, whose approach to the pandemic has been controversial and at odds with its European neighbours, the nightly updates, including admissions of error, by the country’s health chief, Anders Tengell, have been a model of clarity and made him something of a national hero. It’s been reported that some people have his image tattooed on their arms. I do not think this is an honour Cummings will be receiving just now."
  • eekeek Posts: 17,293
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,766
    edited May 2020
    Dura_Ace said:

    I have just seen somebody on twitter say that Captain Tom should behead Cummings on live TV. That would be the perfect vignette for Britain 2020.

    Surely the full English if the auld lad's up to it.

    Dragged, usually by a horse, on a wooden frame to the place where he was to be publicly put to death.
    Hanged by the neck for a short time or until almost dead (hanged).
    Removed from hanging and placed on a table. Still alive, the victim was cut open in the abdomen and his intestines and sex organs removed The removed organs were burned in a flame, prepared close to the prisoner.
    The victim's head was cut off, and the rest of the body hacked into four parts or quarters (quartered).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,479
    Dura_Ace said:

    I have just seen somebody on twitter say that Captain Tom should behead Cummings on live TV. That would be the perfect vignette for Britain 2020.

    Colonel Sir Tom, please.

    My theory is that Johnson will further promote him to distract the proles whenever necessary. He will be a Duke, General and bishop this time next year.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
    How many normal members of the public have broken some aspect of the lockdown regulations and received no penalty whatsoever? Millions by now, surely? So actually quite a bit like a normal member of the public after all.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,824

    eadric said:

    This is beyond nonsensical. Cummings is being condemned for answering all the questions by the same people who condemn him for avoiding all the questions.

    Odious. They really do just hate him. Boulton is a toad.

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1264886159466954752?s=20

    Its the same mentality that condemned him for not going to meeting and then condemned him for going to meetings.
    Yes, I wouldn't criticise him for holding the press conference - seems reasonable under the circs. Let's see what he has to say.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,399
    Paddy Power have bets about the statement. Evens he confirms he visited Barnard Castle. I’ve had the £10 they allowed me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Freggles said:

    FPT


    Cummings aside, looking at the amended regulations it is now legal to move home.

    My question is:
    Is it therefore legal to move in with others?
    I don't see anything in the guidance specifically prohibiting it or addressing it at all.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/government-advice-on-home-moving-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak

    The government actually advised (even before Boris spoke about starting to lift lockdown) that in certain circumstances it can be OK to move in with others.

    After the spike in domestic violence cases was reported advice was issued saying that if a couple has a bad argument it is ok for one partner to move into a friend's home to cool down for a few days.

    Not an example under the law but again covered by being reasonable. Stepping away to cool down can be better than feeling trapped until someone resorts to violence.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,823
    NHS England numbers out - 59 - Very low, even for a weekend (effectively).

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    We are living in a golden age of infantile performance art indeed. :wink:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    Scott_xP said:
    That's a name from the past.

    It was anecdotes from the Crouch End coffee shops which predicted the Labour general election win in 2015.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721
    Stocky said:

    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.

    He`d just do that by letter, surely?
    I suppose a press conference with questions would be a way of taking more of the blame on to himself, if he were so inclined.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    We must not understate that although some converted red to blue seats have massive Tory majorities, others are very marginal.

    The top 60 or so Labour target seats have majorities under 7000. That's not exactly a lot of people to piss off before the Tory majority gets torpedoed.

    I am not persuaded that the size of the majority is as key as the speed with which the pendulum swung. Whilst acknowledging that longer term demographic trends are present, it is far from obvious that a sudden big - indeed massive in several cases - swing such as was seen in some seats such as Sedgefield, Durham NW, Grimsby,Leigh, Bassetlaw et al implies that they have changed their alleigance on a permanent basis - particularly in the context of the Corbyn and Brexit factors no longer being relevant. I suspect that such seats with substantial Tory majorities in 2019 are more winnable for Labout than many others which on paper are far more marginal.
    It is cultural change, see also Australia, the US, Canada and France and Italy.

    The skilled white working class is moving right, the upper middle class to the liberal left
    On the current definitions, Michael Foot would be populist right and Margaret Thatcher would be liberal left.
    No, as the right still supports tax cuts as Thatcher did and unlike Foot and Foot was not pushing tighter immigration controls either.

    Thatcher was opposed to UK involvement in a Federal EU even as PM she did not advocate the UK leaving the EEC as Foot did.

    Roy Jenkins was classic liberal left though
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
    How many normal members of the public have broken some aspect of the lockdown regulations and received no penalty whatsoever? Millions by now, surely? So actually quite a bit like a normal member of the public after all.
    Whatever Dom is I really don't think you can say he is like a normal member of the public.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,792
    eek said:
    That's potentially the much bigger scandal. The track and trace app, as we both know, has been a total and utter f***-up.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,600
    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.

    He`d just do that by letter, surely?
    I suppose a press conference with questions would be a way of taking more of the blame on to himself, if he were so inclined.
    Good point, I never thought of that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,466
    edited May 2020

    Dura_Ace said:

    I have just seen somebody on twitter say that Captain Tom should behead Cummings on live TV. That would be the perfect vignette for Britain 2020.

    Surely the full English if the auld lad's up to it.

    Dragged, usually by a horse, on a wooden frame to the place where he was to be publicly put to death.
    Hanged by the neck for a short time or until almost dead (hanged).
    Removed from hanging and placed on a table. Still alive, the victim was cut open in the abdomen and his intestines and sex organs removed The removed organs were burned in a flame, prepared close to the prisoner.
    The victim's head was cut off, and the rest of the body hacked into four parts or quarters (quartered).
    Deleted.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,834
    RobD said:

    He doesn't need a press conference to resign. I wonder what is going on.

    The media are going to fuck it up. They will ask rambling, too clever by half, questions. It will give Dom all the cover he needs.
  • So will Dominic resign?
  • Stocky said:

    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.

    He`d just do that by letter, surely?
    Yes, and indeed it would be really odd to announce you were becoming a distraction in a press conference that would, in itself, be a distraction. You'd take the whisky and revolver, and slip quietly out of the back door.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,123
    eadric said:

    Some disturbing reading to pass the time as we wait. A quarter of covid deaths in Mexico are people aged 25-49

    !!

    https://twitter.com/MBA1930/status/1264602340981645312?s=20

    But that contradicts what HYUFD says, so it can't be right.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,123
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    We must not understate that although some converted red to blue seats have massive Tory majorities, others are very marginal.

    The top 60 or so Labour target seats have majorities under 7000. That's not exactly a lot of people to piss off before the Tory majority gets torpedoed.

    I am not persuaded that the size of the majority is as key as the speed with which the pendulum swung. Whilst acknowledging that longer term demographic trends are present, it is far from obvious that a sudden big - indeed massive in several cases - swing such as was seen in some seats such as Sedgefield, Durham NW, Grimsby,Leigh, Bassetlaw et al implies that they have changed their alleigance on a permanent basis - particularly in the context of the Corbyn and Brexit factors no longer being relevant. I suspect that such seats with substantial Tory majorities in 2019 are more winnable for Labout than many others which on paper are far more marginal.
    It is cultural change, see also Australia, the US, Canada and France and Italy.

    The skilled white working class is moving right, the upper middle class to the liberal left
    On the current definitions, Michael Foot would be populist right and Margaret Thatcher would be liberal left.
    No, as the right still supports tax cuts as Thatcher did and unlike Foot and Foot was not pushing tighter immigration controls either.

    Thatcher was opposed to UK involvement in a Federal EU even as PM she did not advocate the UK leaving the EEC as Foot did.

    Roy Jenkins was classic liberal left though
    Margaret Thatcher's Chancellors had no qualms about increasing VAT.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,894

    DougSeal said:

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green is a partisan political hack who has lost his fair share of cases. His word is not law. Law is law.

    I actually though agree with him that what matters is the word reasonable. I said the other day that reasonable is a word used in law for good reason just as David says.

    Whether his actions are legal or not depend upon whether they were reasonable in his circumstances. I completely agree with that 100%.
    His litigation success rate is 100% better than yours. All litigators have lost their fair share of cases. It goes with the job.
    Indeed. So he can be right or he can be wrong just as I said.

    Though as it happens and as I said after saying he could be wrong: I agree with him. I said to you on Saturday that reasonable has a meaning in law and is used for a good reason. Here David Allen Green is saying the exact same thing as I said three days ago.

    You didn't agree with me on Saturday. Do you agree with David when he's now saying the same thing I said?
    I’m not going through the thread again but I recall a lot of your argument relied on the “all parents would have done the same ergo it was reasonable” defence. As I have repeatedly said, that is known as the Helen Lovejoy defence, and cuts no ice. Killing a suspected paedophile because all parents would have done the same is not a defence, for example. You have to take into account your “neighbour“ ie anyone, your kids and everyone else, you could reasonably have foreseen to have been affected (or infected) by your actions. In the words of the first case you will learn at law school -

    The rule that you are to love your neighbour becomes in law, you must not injure your neighbour; and the lawyer's question, Who is my neighbour? receives a restricted reply. You must take reasonable care to avoid acts or omissions which you can reasonably foresee would be likely to injure your neighbour. Who, then, in law, is my neighbour? The answer seems to be – persons who are so closely and directly affected by my act that I ought reasonably to have them in contemplation as being so affected when I am directing my mind to the acts or omissions which are called in question. - Donoghue v Stevenson [1932] UKHL 100

    His actions put at risk people he should have had directly in contemplation as being infected by he virus he and his wife were carrying if they came into contact with them. It’s that basic. There were alternatives, up to and including social services, that would have better protected his legally defined “neighbours”, thus his actions were clearly unreasonable and a court will hold the same.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
    How many normal members of the public have broken some aspect of the lockdown regulations and received no penalty whatsoever? Millions by now, surely? So actually quite a bit like a normal member of the public after all.
    Whatever Dom is I really don't think you can say he is like a normal member of the public.
    Your implicit complaint was that he is being treated better than a normal member of the public. I was just pointing out that a substantial chunk of the public has received no censure whatsoever for their own individual violations of lockdown, let alone become the subject of a nationwide witch hunt...
  • eadric said:

    Stocky said:

    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.

    He`d just do that by letter, surely?
    Yes, and indeed it would be really odd to announce you were becoming a distraction in a press conference that would, in itself, be a distraction. You'd take the whisky and revolver, and slip quietly out of the back door.
    Dom is vain
    True. Or as vain as a bald man carrying his lunch in an ASDA plastic bag can be.
  • stjohn said:

    Paddy Power have bets about the statement. Evens he confirms he visited Barnard Castle. I’ve had the £10 they allowed me.

    This buzzword has now been taken down.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    eadric said:

    Some disturbing reading to pass the time as we wait. A quarter of covid deaths in Mexico are people aged 25-49

    !!

    https://twitter.com/MBA1930/status/1264602340981645312?s=20

    Obesity, air pollution and poor health care will all feature in that.

    Its also possible that many of the dead oldies are being recorded under different causes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
    How many normal members of the public have broken some aspect of the lockdown regulations and received no penalty whatsoever? Millions by now, surely? So actually quite a bit like a normal member of the public after all.
    Whatever Dom is I really don't think you can say he is like a normal member of the public.
    Your implicit complaint was that he is being treated better than a normal member of the public. I was just pointing out that a substantial chunk of the public has received no censure whatsoever for their own individual violations of lockdown, let alone become the subject of a nationwide witch hunt...
    Higher standards
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,834
    In non Dom news New ICU cases in Sweden, whilst well down from their peak have started to rise again



    Looks like starting to hit Gothenburg, Malmo still basically unaffected.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    And while we are all distracted by COVID scandals....China not messing about.

    Hong Kong needs a controversial new security law to tackle "growing terrorism", the territory's security chief has said.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52794433
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m curious to find out what he can say to make things better. And suspecting that he is a man in a hole who can’t stop digging.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    @DougSeal you’re wasting your time because as we know @Philip_Thompson knows more about the law and the guidelines than David Allen Green, so his opinion is worthless.

    David Allen Green is a partisan political hack who has lost his fair share of cases. His word is not law. Law is law.

    I actually though agree with him that what matters is the word reasonable. I said the other day that reasonable is a word used in law for good reason just as David says.

    Whether his actions are legal or not depend upon whether they were reasonable in his circumstances. I completely agree with that 100%.
    His litigation success rate is 100% better than yours. All litigators have lost their fair share of cases. It goes with the job.
    Indeed. So he can be right or he can be wrong just as I said.

    Though as it happens and as I said after saying he could be wrong: I agree with him. I said to you on Saturday that reasonable has a meaning in law and is used for a good reason. Here David Allen Green is saying the exact same thing as I said three days ago.

    You didn't agree with me on Saturday. Do you agree with David when he's now saying the same thing I said?
    I’m not going through the thread again but I recall a lot of your argument relied on the “all parents would have done the same ergo it was reasonable” defence. As I have repeatedly said, that is known as the Helen Lovejoy defence, and cuts no ice. Killing a suspected paedophile because all parents would have done the same is not a defence, for example. You have to take into account your “neighbour“ ie anyone, your kids and everyone else, you could reasonably have foreseen to have been affected (or infected) by your actions. In the words of the first case you will learn at law school -

    The rule that you are to love your neighbour becomes in law, you must not injure your neighbour; and the lawyer's question, Who is my neighbour? receives a restricted reply. You must take reasonable care to avoid acts or omissions which you can reasonably foresee would be likely to injure your neighbour. Who, then, in law, is my neighbour? The answer seems to be – persons who are so closely and directly affected by my act that I ought reasonably to have them in contemplation as being so affected when I am directing my mind to the acts or omissions which are called in question. - Donoghue v Stevenson [1932] UKHL 100

    His actions put at risk people he should have had directly in contemplation as being infected by he virus he and his wife were carrying if they came into contact with them. It’s that basic. There were alternatives, up to and including social services, that would have better protected his legally defined “neighbours”, thus his actions were clearly unreasonable and a court will hold the same.
    No I never said all. I never say all. I said if he felt it was necessary for him and if it was reasonable for him to think that then it's covered by the reasonable excuse proviso.

    The requirement is for it to be reasonable. Never needs or needed to be "all" and I believe people are individuals.

    Two people can face the same situation and make different choices with both being reasonable.

    I don't accept that social services come before family nor did the DCMO who put family before social services.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Dura_Ace said:

    I have just seen somebody on twitter say that Captain Tom should behead Cummings on live TV. That would be the perfect vignette for Britain 2020.

    Surely the full English if the auld lad's up to it.

    Dragged, usually by a horse, on a wooden frame to the place where he was to be publicly put to death.
    Hanged by the neck for a short time or until almost dead (hanged).
    Removed from hanging and placed on a table. Still alive, the victim was cut open in the abdomen and his intestines and sex organs removed The removed organs were burned in a flame, prepared close to the prisoner.
    The victim's head was cut off, and the rest of the body hacked into four parts or quarters (quartered).
    You're obviously into retro but restraint might be a useful adjunct.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,399

    stjohn said:

    Paddy Power have bets about the statement. Evens he confirms he visited Barnard Castle. I’ve had the £10 they allowed me.

    This buzzword has now been taken down.
    Peter. It is still there with Paddy Power. Not as a buzzword but whether he confirms he was at Barnard Castle. Now 4/6.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,792
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    He doesn't need a press conference to resign. I wonder what is going on.

    The media are going to fuck it up. They will ask rambling, too clever by half, questions. It will give Dom all the cover he needs.
    That's highly likely.

    Most of the Lobby know Cummings well, and the vast majority really don't like him for a whole number of reasons.

    He's also much more intelligent than the hacks, and with a very sharp idea of how the public thinks and reacts.

    Whatever the outcome, it's going to be must-watch TV.
  • Stocky said:

    My guess is that Cummings will go - not because he did anything wrong but because this has become a distraction for the government in its efforts to fight the pandemic.

    He`d just do that by letter, surely?
    Indeed, plus I very much doubt he'd take media questions as is being proposed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    Alistair said:

    In non Dom news New ICU cases in Sweden, whilst well down from their peak have started to rise again



    Looks like starting to hit Gothenburg, Malmo still basically unaffected.

    Slowly moving from one city to another would be what the herd immunity supporters would want.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,789

    And while we are all distracted by COVID scandals....China not messing about.

    Hong Kong needs a controversial new security law to tackle "growing terrorism", the territory's security chief has said.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52794433

    The government's China policy is to dig a hole until they reach it.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,707

    So will Dominic resign?

    I blo*dy well hope not! Can I be the founding member of the PB Tories for Dom club?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    Bad Al used to say you have to kill the story within a few news cycles. Big Dom giving some press conference is just extending this for a load more.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
    How many normal members of the public have broken some aspect of the lockdown regulations and received no penalty whatsoever? Millions by now, surely? So actually quite a bit like a normal member of the public after all.
    This is a desperate defence . The general public aren’t setting policy and if those in charge just break the restrictions without any penalty then what message does that send out .
  • Dominic is going to make this so much worse than it needs to be.

    I bet Keir can't imagine he would get this lucky.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,692
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    We must not understate that although some converted red to blue seats have massive Tory majorities, others are very marginal.

    The top 60 or so Labour target seats have majorities under 7000. That's not exactly a lot of people to piss off before the Tory majority gets torpedoed.

    I am not persuaded that the size of the majority is as key as the speed with which the pendulum swung. Whilst acknowledging that longer term demographic trends are present, it is far from obvious that a sudden big - indeed massive in several cases - swing such as was seen in some seats such as Sedgefield, Durham NW, Grimsby,Leigh, Bassetlaw et al implies that they have changed their alleigance on a permanent basis - particularly in the context of the Corbyn and Brexit factors no longer being relevant. I suspect that such seats with substantial Tory majorities in 2019 are more winnable for Labout than many others which on paper are far more marginal.
    It is cultural change, see also Australia, the US, Canada and France and Italy.

    The skilled white working class is moving right, the upper middle class to the liberal left
    On the current definitions, Michael Foot would be populist right and Margaret Thatcher would be liberal left.
    No, as the right still supports tax cuts as Thatcher did and unlike Foot and Foot was not pushing tighter immigration controls either.

    Thatcher was opposed to UK involvement in a Federal EU even as PM she did not advocate the UK leaving the EEC as Foot did.

    Roy Jenkins was classic liberal left though
    Margaret Thatcher's Chancellors had no qualms about increasing VAT.
    They cut income tax across the board however
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I don't care if he was recovering from an operation, his missus had got covid-19 and his son is autistic - No sympathy, I want him sacked.

    Same as I would any normal member of the public in those circumstances

    Listen, the Chief Constable had broken his leg in February and his aunt has diabetes so I think he should be let off the theft of a Mars Bar. Just like any normal member of the public.
    How many normal members of the public have broken some aspect of the lockdown regulations and received no penalty whatsoever? Millions by now, surely? So actually quite a bit like a normal member of the public after all.
    Surely it is the quarantine regulations he has broken ?

    Most normal people would not have gone and put their aged parents at risk.
    Knowing they had the virus.
    However most normal people would think you are a complete bastard to drive 250 miles to do that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175

    I’m curious to find out what he can say to make things better. And suspecting that he is a man in a hole who can’t stop digging.

    The suggestion I saw earlier was "deeply personal and medical revelation", but I am not convinced he can play the sympathy card and win
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,198
    Scott_xP said:

    I’m curious to find out what he can say to make things better. And suspecting that he is a man in a hole who can’t stop digging.

    The suggestion I saw earlier was "deeply personal and medical revelation", but I am not convinced he can play the sympathy card and win
    In normals times that might work e.g. see when the media overstepped the mark with Gordo and he was able to say hey I only have partial sight you bastards.

    But this isn't normal times, everybody with a medical condition is being locked away. My folks haven't been out the house in 3 months.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888

    stjohn said:

    Paddy Power have bets about the statement. Evens he confirms he visited Barnard Castle. I’ve had the £10 they allowed me.

    This buzzword has now been taken down.
    Is it because f**k you was backed off the board??
This discussion has been closed.