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This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.0
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Second0
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Our thoughts are with you at this difficult time.TheScreamingEagles said:This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.
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FPT:
It's to the government's credit that they've allowed the scientists to play such a prominent role. It's something that's not been seen in many other countries to the same extent.
From a sociology perspective these two men are authority figures, their involvement now will make it much easier to enforce stronger behavioural changes later, in a way that wouldn't be the case if it were the PM making the case. In a time of political division, the deployment of the scientists is a genius idea.0 -
Actually the last time local elections were deferred was 2014. From early to late May. The lead makes the same mistake as a PB’er last week.0
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..0
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Ok, thanks. We also have to be careful when using the very latest data, as they could well be for just part of the day. This depends on whether the data are published daily or several times a day. Eg. Worldometers has currently +2547 new cases in Italy since midnight GMT.FrancisUrquhart said:
I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.eristdoof said:
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed0 -
It could be worse. They could be kept running, tying up capital for a year and requiring more investment if there are material changes that might affect the outcomes.TheScreamingEagles said:This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.
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Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS13 -
It is interesting that even the ideologically opposed haven't started the usual personal attacks on the CMO and CSA.Sandpit said:FPT:
It's to the government's credit that they've allowed the scientists to play such a prominent role. It's something that's not been seen in many other countries to the same extent.
From a sociology perspective these two men are authority figures, their involvement now will make it much easier to enforce stronger behavioural changes later, in a way that wouldn't be the case if it were the PM making the case. In a time of political division, the deployment of the scientists is a genius idea.1 -
Ah yes, because the EU had their own elections a fortnight later than the planned locals.IanB2 said:Actually the last time local elections were deferred was 2014. From early to late May. The lead makes the same mistake as a PB’er last week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_Kingdom_local_elections0 -
There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/questioning-governments-coronavirus-strategy-not-wrong-danger/4 -
Welcome aboard.AlwaysSinging said:Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS
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Which bets?TheScreamingEagles said:This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.
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Ruined my position and planned payout on Khan.
Still.. too late to cancel the Labour leadership race.0 -
Welcome, AS Always good to have new blood in discussions.AlwaysSinging said:Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS0 -
Hello AS!0
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A very warm welcome!AlwaysSinging said:Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS0 -
It's a disaster. The London Mayoral election has been an absolute zinger, I had quite a bit on Sadiq Khan at super odds. Did Boris not think of the punters?TheScreamingEagles said:This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.
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There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.kinabalu said:Stocky said:I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.
Do they still do a tit count? - I didn't read it! God.
With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!
Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?1 -
I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.
Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.0 -
What happens with by-elections? Easy for government to forget them, but areas cannot be left unrepresented for long periods.david_herdson said:
Nevertheless, with the EC requesting it it would have been bold to keep them going, even with massive poll leads to look forward to.
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It sounds like the penny is slowly dropping on Fleet St.rottenborough said:There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/questioning-governments-coronavirus-strategy-not-wrong-danger/1 -
Tik tok.MyBurningEars said:0 -
I dispute this header. Khan doesn't look a certainty, he is a certainty.0
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AlwaysSinging said:
Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS
Hello.......AS
PB kept me sane.....a fine example of an oxymoron......2 -
TikTok.MyBurningEars said:
There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.kinabalu said:Stocky said:I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.
Do they still do a tit count? - I didn't read it! God.
With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!
Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?
Don’t call them Young’uns.
Familiarise yourself with the works of Dua Lipa.
Having said that I am only 41 and the gap between me and “young people” is already a chasm.2 -
I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles0
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Fpt
Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:
“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”
I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.0 -
Elections are governed by statute. To postpone will probably require either an SI or legislation unless a statute allows a minister to order it some other way.Time_to_Leave said:I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.
Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.
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***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***1
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Take up video gaming. It's so varied there's something for everyone and even if its a genre not hugely popular with da yoof it allows for shared language and culture. That'll build a bridge through shared consumption without having to take a plunge into all youth focused media.MyBurningEars said:
There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.kinabalu said:Stocky said:I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.
Do they still do a tit count? - I didn't read it! God.
With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!
Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?0 -
Thanks for the data source, Github has plenty of gems lurking around. I would be great to use it, lets see if I can find the time to analyse it in detail. If not I can give it to a student to work with.JM1 said:
If you are interested, all the Italian data is here: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19 It's interesting to look at the trends here and to fit various models. Clearly very bad but I would not getting worse in terms of the fraction of positive cases per day etc., so if it follows a typical Gaussian pattern, a few more days of fairly consistent growth, followed by a decline in new cases in 7-10 days or so (i.e., that will be the Italian peak). But let's see...eristdoof said:
Ok, thanks. We also have to be careful when using the very latest data, as they could well be for just part of the day. This depends on whether the data are published daily or several times a day. Eg. Worldometers has currently +2547 new cases in Italy since midnight GMT.FrancisUrquhart said:
I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.eristdoof said:
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed
I do expect the Italian total cases to become linear at some point then level off. I don't like using just the last two day's data to claim that the pattern has changed.0 -
I know, Boris Johnson hates me, this is his revenge.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's a disaster. The London Mayoral election has been an absolute zinger, I had quite a bit on Sadiq Khan at super odds. Did Boris not think of the punters?TheScreamingEagles said:This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.
Just dawned on me these London Mayoral will coincide with Scottish and Welsh parliament/assembly elections.
The betting during the counts will be fun that night.0 -
I work in the Ministry of Justice and expect to be re-deployed in a couple of months or face being disciplined.....eadric said:
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The Civil Contingencies Act allows local elections to postponed by the Executive in certain circumstances. Like a pandemic.algarkirk said:
Elections are governed by statute. To postpone will probably require either an SI or legislation unless a statute allows a minister to order it some other way.Time_to_Leave said:I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.
Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.0 -
28 Weeks Later?Sunil_Prasannan said:***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6OtF7daIPM0 -
No anti-bac wipes in Ilford North's Sainsbury's, B & M, Tesco, Aldi, or Boots. Luckily, got a couple of packs left.tyson said:I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles
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Gordon Brown: In the coronavirus crisis, our leaders are failing usrottenborough said:There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-crisis-leaders-failing-gordon-brown0 -
Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.
But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.1 -
Will the elections go back on cycle after the delay I wonder?0
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If it's the riff I'm thinking of, then that's an abridged version of Godspeed You! Black Emperor's 'East Hastings'. The longer version is better.Sunil_Prasannan said:***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***
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Welcome. Are you SAT or B? Or do you just "Sing whatever"?AlwaysSinging said:Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS0 -
If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.david_herdson said:
University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.
Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.0 -
From tomorrow my terrace will be open to a select few for evening drinks, you have to bring your own, sit a meter apart and show no signs of the bug but it’s better than nothing.1
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Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.rcs1000 said:Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.
But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.0 -
That's so bad I wished you'd employed the shit sandwich technique to cushion it at least.ydoethur said:
If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.david_herdson said:
University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.
Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.0 -
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/statsministeren-danmarks-graenser-lukker-fra-klokken-12-i-morgen
Denmark closing borders to all non citizens from midday tomorrow0 -
At least when he talks about 'our leaders' he is trying to take a global view of things (why note, he did save it after all).williamglenn said:
Gordon Brown: In the coronavirus crisis, our leaders are failing usrottenborough said:There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-crisis-leaders-failing-gordon-brown0 -
You savage.tyson said:I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles
1 -
"In the House, In a Heartbeat" - John Murphy.Foss said:
If it's the riff I'm thinking of, then that's an abridged version of Godspeed You! Black Emperor's 'East Hastings'. The longer version is better.Sunil_Prasannan said:***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_UFqw3vm0s1 -
It is 2% of population. No doubt Corbynistas think that the wicked Tories plan to kill 1.3 million people out of sheer spite and disdain. But what these Hitlerian sloganists are actually arguing with is some carefully thought out science and medicine from the top people in the UK, a world centre of excellence in epidemiology. Unless the Corbynista has a better plan they have little to offer a waiting world.Gardenwalker said:Fpt
Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:
“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”
I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.2 -
You're analogy of it being a war kind of answers the point - it can be surprising after the most devastating wars or pandemics how much doesn't change. Plenty does, especially with the huge ones, but humans and human society weather these things a lot better than we tend to think. And that's not being complacent about the threat, just that society is more durable than people think, even when we're all a lot more snowflakey.eadric said:It's my kids that sadden me. Yes they will probably survive, but what sort of world will they inherit? How much of their extended family will get through?
We're heading into a war. It's hideous. I wish to God I had been wrong.4 -
The price of Camden apartments will probably collapse in the depopulated future. Those that own them would be better of chucking them in and taking a huge loss, rather than keeping them as millstones round their necks.eadric said:It's my kids that sadden me. Yes they will probably survive, but what sort of world will they inherit? How much of their extended family will get through?
We're heading into a war. It's hideous. I wish to God I had been wrong.2 -
I think they have also shut the beaches!0
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My awesome simile does not soften it?kle4 said:
That's so bad I wished you'd employed the shit sandwich technique to cushion it at least.ydoethur said:
If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.david_herdson said:
University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.
Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.
What’s really annoying me is that the disease itself will almost certainly be much less dangerous than the reaction to it. I can only conclude, for example, that Leo Varadkar is either insane or trying to force a government of national unity. Because his measures bear no resemblance to the actual situation in Ireland.1 -
I used to assume that "28 days later" was a sequel to "28 days", well it did come out 2 years after the first one.Sunil_Prasannan said:***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***
I felt really silly when someone told me they were totally different, and 28 days later is good.
1 -
It's that "herd" word. It's a rather determinst and cold way to describe the population of a proud and venerable island nation.Gardenwalker said:Fpt
Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:
“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”
I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.
The Will of the Herd?
Sounds all wrong.0 -
Isolation measures cause cases to collapse.JM1 said:Oh, absolutely! Two days of data are clearly insufficient for anything statistically significant. But the provincial level data (especially for Lodi / Cremona) does suggest that the epidemic might have peaked already and that the rest of Lombardy is beginning to follow a similar trend (I could use R to analyse but also might give it to a student ;-))
We know this.
It's worked in South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
That's not the problem. The problem is what happens when you lift the restrictions.
The UK government is following the policy of allowing a large-ish number of people to get infected before implementing draconian measures. Other governments have different policies. Only time will tell which is right.0 -
"The Internet Can’t Save Us From Loneliness in Pandemic
Forced isolation only deepens the emptiness we often feel when communicating by screen
People who spend more time online are less happy, but what are we to do when connecting with people online is our only option?
By Christopher Mims"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-internet-cant-save-us-from-loneliness-in-pandemic-11583958251?mod=hp_lead_pos100 -
Thank you for the advice downthread. If signing up to TikTok is the price of reconnecting with the yoof'o'today, perhaps the time has come to accept the ravages of time itself.
More topically...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnf74nttz9E
Most of them are not standing two metres apart and many of the dance moves seem to involve repeatedly touching the face, so I'm not sure what good this message is doing...0 -
On the plus side, you doubled the number of likes you got.AlwaysSinging said:Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread
I'll repost...
FPT:
Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS
Welcome0 -
Voice chat helps a lot in my experience.Andy_JS said:"The Internet Can’t Save Us From Loneliness in Pandemic
Forced isolation only deepens the emptiness we often feel when communicating by screen
People who spend more time online are less happy, but what are we to do when connecting with people online is our only option?
By Christopher Mims"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-internet-cant-save-us-from-loneliness-in-pandemic-11583958251?mod=hp_lead_pos100 -
I believe this is Evul Stuuuupid Tory Policy - see Farcebook and reddut for detailed explanations.eadric said:
Or is it different if other countries do this?1 -
Well, that’s all of us screwed then.Andy_JS said:"The Internet Can’t Save Us From Loneliness in Pandemic
Forced isolation only deepens the emptiness we often feel when communicating by screen
People who spend more time online are less happy, but what are we to do when connecting with people online is our only option?
By Christopher Mims"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-internet-cant-save-us-from-loneliness-in-pandemic-11583958251?mod=hp_lead_pos100 -
And yet Boris was criticised for doing this days agoeadric said:1 -
Surely it would be possible to gradually lift restrictions while keeping an eye on the rate of new infections? Then, if they start to tick up too much, reimpose some of the restrictions. You could vary the restrictions imposed so as not to come down disproportionately on particular sections of the public. You'd still eventually attain herd immunity, but without overwhelming your health system in the process.rcs1000 said:
Isolation measures cause cases to collapse.JM1 said:Oh, absolutely! Two days of data are clearly insufficient for anything statistically significant. But the provincial level data (especially for Lodi / Cremona) does suggest that the epidemic might have peaked already and that the rest of Lombardy is beginning to follow a similar trend (I could use R to analyse but also might give it to a student ;-))
We know this.
It's worked in South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
That's not the problem. The problem is what happens when you lift the restrictions.
The UK government is following the policy of allowing a large-ish number of people to get infected before implementing draconian measures. Other governments have different policies. Only time will tell which is right.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
You savage.tyson said:I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles
I liked your post from the previous thread about Brexit....
I wish we were all still bickering about Brexit for obvious reasons.....it all appears such a long time ago.....
Just think this one thing....if the authorities in Wuhan had isolated that unusual cluster of patients with pneumonia quickly at the end of November, this Covid malarky would have probably got a couple of paragraphs in the world section of the Guardian.....
Instead...we are looking at an event that is going to define the world for generations....0 -
Always Singing - welcome.
Lovely Username. Give us a song?
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Hard to know. If Boris gets us through this with a lot less deaths than are currently feared, he will carry all before him.Time_to_Leave said:I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.
Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.0 -
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I hope we don't cave in to populism as far as the British expert advice is concerned.3
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Was that before or after I passed on my tip from the WH?eadric said:
I said all international air travel would cease in a fortnight, about a week back.Chameleon said:https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/statsministeren-danmarks-graenser-lukker-fra-klokken-12-i-morgen
Denmark closing borders to all non citizens from midday tomorrow
It looks now like ALL international travel, of any kind, will end.0 -
Even the Ireland & Craven scholarship examinations at Oxford were suspended during the world wars.ydoethur said:
If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.david_herdson said:
University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.
Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.
They'll get over it.0 -
This is going to be fun* isn't it...
Up here the cancellation of the Tees Valley Mayoral means that Ben Houchen has another 12 months to either utterly cement his place as a man who delivers his promises or the man who bankrupted the Combined Authority by wasting all its cash on a now bankrupt airport.
Sadly the day where the awful Jessie Joe Jacobs gets demolished as Labour's candidate is also delayed.0 -
Does anyone just feel an enervating sense of dread?
Denmark closes its borders, then Poland...
Impossible to concentrate on work.2 -
Yep. With you all the way.eadric said:It's my kids that sadden me. Yes they will probably survive, but what sort of world will they inherit? How much of their extended family will get through?
We're heading into a war. It's hideous. I wish to God I had been wrong.
At the rate we are going it won't matter that Bonkers Boris doesn't want to shut our borders. Everywhere else will have done so no one will be able to come and go from here either.
This is primarily about lives and families. The desperate messages coming out of Italy today about people dying on their own, lucid to the end as they knew their fate but totally alone, are harrowing.
House prices are, perhaps, less of an issue. Be grateful for a roof over your head. I doubt people will be moving anywhere.
It's also about the economic impact. The stock markets are still nowhere near bottoming out. The knock-on effects of this across all industries are in nascent shape. It will take months and months for the ripples to become tidal waves as industry after industry collapses.
There has, quite simply, been nothing like it globally since the Second World War.0 -
Leading the minority chargeAlastairMeeks said:0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaoVg6ejgRQFeersumEnjineeya said:
Surely it would be possible to gradually lift restrictions while keeping an eye on the rate of new infections? Then, if they start to tick up too much, reimpose some of the restrictions. You could vary the restrictions imposed so as not to come down disproportionately on particular sections of the public. You'd still eventually attain herd immunity, but without overwhelming your health system in the process.rcs1000 said:
Isolation measures cause cases to collapse.JM1 said:Oh, absolutely! Two days of data are clearly insufficient for anything statistically significant. But the provincial level data (especially for Lodi / Cremona) does suggest that the epidemic might have peaked already and that the rest of Lombardy is beginning to follow a similar trend (I could use R to analyse but also might give it to a student ;-))
We know this.
It's worked in South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
That's not the problem. The problem is what happens when you lift the restrictions.
The UK government is following the policy of allowing a large-ish number of people to get infected before implementing draconian measures. Other governments have different policies. Only time will tell which is right.
You may find this speech by the PM of Singapore interesting. Explicitly talks about this being for the long haul, a year or more, and how they do plan to ramp extra restrictions up and down. So your strategy sounds very much like theirs.
You can also watch the same speech in Chinese. Impressive smarts and confident delivery - wonder how many Americans would take a Lee Hsien Loong - Donald Trump swap right now. And how many Singaporeans... (FWIW I don't like his repressive domestic policies at all, and I'm not even sure how many Singaporeans do - the ones I know find the levels of repression there very disturbing, but they're obviously more western-oriented ones.)0 -
If others do it - a superb proportional responseMalmesbury said:
I believe this is Evul Stuuuupid Tory Policy - see Farcebook and reddut for detailed explanations.eadric said:
Or is it different if other countries do this?0 -
T'was me I think. But you'd have to be a miserable git to complain that people are being helped out during the crisis.kle4 said:
Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.rcs1000 said:Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.
But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.0 -
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Apparently Netflix subscriptions have rocketedMarqueeMark said:
T'was me I think. But you'd have to be a miserable git to complain that people are being helped out during the crisis.kle4 said:
Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.rcs1000 said:Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.
But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.0 -
Has this actually been confirmed? 'DiscloseTV' appear to be the only people reporting it.eadric said:0 -
Professors Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan are nodding in assent to the wise words of Professor tyson.tyson said:
Andy...the British Expert Advice doesn't speak with one voice....the Govt has temporarily coalesced around a position that is untenable.....Andy_JS said:I hope we don't cave in to populism as far as the British expert advice is concerned.
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I think this seldom-sung Charles Wesley hymn hits the right spot. Whatever one's faith, or none, it is magnificent:
Jesu, lover of my soul
Let me to Thy bosom fly,
While the gathering waters roll,
While the tempest still is high:
Hide me, O my Saviour, hide,
Till the storm of life is past;
Safe into the haven guide;
O receive my soul at last.
Other refuge have I none,
Hangs my helpless soul on Thee;
Leave, oh, leave me not alone,
Still support and comfort me.
All my trust on Thee is stayed,
All my help from Thee I bring;
Cover my defenceless head
With the shadow of Thy wing.
Plenteous grace with Thee is found,
Grace to cover all my sin;
Let the healing streams abound;
Make and keep me pure within.
Thou of life the fountain art,
Freely let me take of Thee;
Spring Thou up within my heart,
Rise to all eternity.
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I'd say do you want to bet on there been no such miserable gits, but since this is a betting site, you probably would!MarqueeMark said:
T'was me I think. But you'd have to be a miserable git to complain that people are being helped out during the crisis.kle4 said:
Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.rcs1000 said:Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.
But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.0 -
Just for Eadric:eadric said:
Abide With Me might come in handyAlastairMeeks said:
The most beautiful lyrics of any hymn ever:
Abide with me; fast falls the eventide;
The darkness deepens; Lord, with me abide;
When other helpers fail and comforts flee,
Help of the helpless, oh, abide with me.
Swift to its close ebbs out life’s little day;
Earth’s joys grow dim, its glories pass away;
Change and decay in all around I see—
O Thou who changest not, abide with me.
I need Thy presence every passing hour;
What but Thy grace can foil the tempter’s pow’r?
Who, like Thyself, my guide and stay can be?
Through cloud and sunshine, Lord, abide with me.
I fear no foe, with Thee at hand to bless;
Ills have no weight, and tears no bitterness;
Where is death’s sting? Where, grave, thy victory?
I triumph still, if Thou abide with me.
Hold Thou Thy cross before my closing eyes;
Shine through the gloom and point me to the skies;
Heav’n’s morning breaks, and earth’s vain shadows flee;
In life, in death, O Lord, abide with me.
I can never hear it without feeling the prickle of almost-tears. The words were written by a Scottish Anglican of very right wing views, who had showed no such amazing talent before penning this. He wrote the words in the last fortnight of his life, as he died of tuberculosis. The hymn was sung at his funeral.
https://youtu.be/t3zNCg55kiw1 -
We’ll cope, Sean. This is a nation that knows how to survive a war. We’ll take our losses, mourn the fallen, then pick up the pieces and carry on. We’re not so different from our (admittedly slightly hardier) forebears.eadric said:AlastairMeeks said:
"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time*"
*hopefully that's an exaggeration: BUT we are now seeing, at first hand, what it is like for the nation to go into a serious, potentially devastating war
No one under 80 has a memory of anything like this.0 -
Just finished watching the Danish PMs press conference - Denmark is closing its borders - if you don't live here or can prove you have a job here you won't get in - there are a few vague ideas about visiting children etc but the rules kick in tomorrow at midday.
Effectively this is the end of flights to/from Denmark, all the land borders will be secured and I suspect unless you are driving a Danish car with your health card (which effectively is your ID card here) you will find it difficuly to get in. Goods traffic unaffected.0 -
Thank you for your kind welcomes. To answer Eristdoof's question, I'm a Bar often pressed into service as a T, but nowadays more of a conductor than a
prolesinger.
At this time I would sing something resolute. "I Will Lift Mine Eyes", perhaps the lovely setting by Jake Runestad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1KUjQ2v7fk0 -
Up there with Keep me in your heart for a while by Warren Zevon. Won't do the whole thing, just two lines:eadric said:
Abide With Me might come in handyAlastairMeeks said:
The most beautiful lyrics of any hymn ever:
Abide with me; fast falls the eventide;
The darkness deepens; Lord, with me abide;
When other helpers fail and comforts flee,
Help of the helpless, oh, abide with me.
Swift to its close ebbs out life’s little day;
Earth’s joys grow dim, its glories pass away;
Change and decay in all around I see—
O Thou who changest not, abide with me.
I need Thy presence every passing hour;
What but Thy grace can foil the tempter’s pow’r?
Who, like Thyself, my guide and stay can be?
Through cloud and sunshine, Lord, abide with me.
I fear no foe, with Thee at hand to bless;
Ills have no weight, and tears no bitterness;
Where is death’s sting? Where, grave, thy victory?
I triumph still, if Thou abide with me.
Hold Thou Thy cross before my closing eyes;
Shine through the gloom and point me to the skies;
Heav’n’s morning breaks, and earth’s vain shadows flee;
In life, in death, O Lord, abide with me.
I can never hear it without feeling the prickle of almost-tears. The words were written by a Scottish Anglican of very right wing views, who had showed no such amazing talent before penning this. He wrote the words in the last fortnight of his life, as he died of tuberculosis. The hymn was sung at his funeral.
If I leave you it doesn't mean I love you any less
and
There's a train leaving nightly called, "When all is said and done."0 -
Enough of the WW2 mythology. 90% of the population have no memory of the war.Animal_pb said:
We’ll cope, Sean. This is a nation that knows how to survive a war. We’ll take our losses, mourn the fallen, then pick up the pieces and carry on. We’re not so different from our (admittedly slightly hardier) forebears.eadric said:AlastairMeeks said:
"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time*"
*hopefully that's an exaggeration: BUT we are now seeing, at first hand, what it is like for the nation to go into a serious, potentially devastating war
No one under 80 has a memory of anything like this.0 -
How about this alternative Welsh hymn?Mysticrose said:I think this seldom-sung Charles Wesley hymn hits the right spot. Whatever one's faith, or none, it is magnificent:
Jesu, lover of my soul
Let me to Thy bosom fly,
While the gathering waters roll,
While the tempest still is high:
Hide me, O my Saviour, hide,
Till the storm of life is past;
Safe into the haven guide;
O receive my soul at last.
Other refuge have I none,
Hangs my helpless soul on Thee;
Leave, oh, leave me not alone,
Still support and comfort me.
All my trust on Thee is stayed,
All my help from Thee I bring;
Cover my defenceless head
With the shadow of Thy wing.
Plenteous grace with Thee is found,
Grace to cover all my sin;
Let the healing streams abound;
Make and keep me pure within.
Thou of life the fountain art,
Freely let me take of Thee;
Spring Thou up within my heart,
Rise to all eternity.
In heavenly love abiding,
no change my heart shall fear;
and safe is such confiding,
for nothing changes here:
the storm may roar without me,
my heart may low be laid;
but God is round about me,
and can I be dismayed?
Wherever he may guide me,
no want shall turn me back;
my Shepherd is beside me,
and nothing can I lack:
his wisdom ever waketh,
his sight is never dim,
he knows the way he taketh,
and I will walk with him.
Green pastures are before me,
which yet I have not seen;
bright skies will soon be o'er me,
where darkest clouds have been;
my hope I cannot measure,
my path to life is free;
my Saviour has my treasure,
and he will walk with me.0 -
Yes it is a sense of grief for the world now gone. I've gone through various of the phases. Depression for a long time. Now I'm at acceptance.Gardenwalker said:Does anyone just feel an enervating sense of dread?
Denmark closes its borders, then Poland...
Impossible to concentrate on work.0 -
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