politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead

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  • Fysics_Teacher
    Fysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north

    As I noticed.
    People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.

    Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.

    I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.

    That could be Labour voters or Conservative ones though.
    I’m outside the M25. I have no idea what turnout is like. I voted later than normal so I have nothing to compare it to.

    Remember: absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence.
  • noneoftheabove
    noneoftheabove Posts: 24,858
    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north

    As I noticed.
    People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.

    Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.

    I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
    We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
    Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else.
    But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere.
    Very low enthusiasm.

    You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.

    Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
    The markets gone for high turnout today!
  • SarahMcD
    SarahMcD Posts: 8
    kinabalu said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    People are talking about Davids 2017 call i think

    Yes, I know. That was legendary apparently.

    Which is why I was sorry to miss his call for this one - if he did one?
    David isn't involved with the Tories any longer. He's made a call (on Twitter), but he's not as well placed as previously.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1205185840084930561

    Wut. Chelsea was never going to turn?
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chris said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Listen to David

    https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205180908032188417

    He's hinting the polls are wrong. He must know something. What has he heard?
    https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205185909114707968
    I thought Chris was being ironic.
    So did Chris, believe me.
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    camel said:

    what you calling kinabalu>?

    Con maj 60 to 75.

    As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.

    You?
  • NorthofStoke
    NorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Pound going down but not sharply
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Chris said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205174434174316547

    This sounds like bollocks

    You've suddenly become less credulous? ;)
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Never change PB

    I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
    PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.
    The other one is sneering, right?
    Hurting somebody.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north

    As I noticed.
    People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.

    Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.

    I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
    We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
    Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else.
    But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere.
    Very low enthusiasm.

    You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.

    Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
    Low turnout in marginals in the north means what? Voters would rather stay at home than vote Tory?
  • Fysics_Teacher
    Fysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1205186234294898689


    Would that account have sent the opposite message the Tories were very confident?
  • spudgfsh
    spudgfsh Posts: 1,568
    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    what you calling kinabalu>?

    Con maj 60 to 75.

    As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.

    You?
    my gut is still going for small to moderate Tory Majority (25-40)
  • noneoftheabove
    noneoftheabove Posts: 24,858
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1205185840084930561

    The vital question is are they glum because they think they are losing, or are they glum because the lightweight muppet will remain deputy PM?
  • MightyAlex
    MightyAlex Posts: 1,789
    £ -0.7%
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    SarahMcD said:

    David isn't involved with the Tories any longer. He's made a call (on Twitter), but he's not as well placed as previously.

    Ah OK. Thanks. I'll check it out.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Anecdotally I have quite a few (4) friends who are at university but resident in Mr Raab's patch. All four of them requested postal votes and followed through with voting, of the 3 that I knew in 2017, none did so and they all voted at university instead. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very significant swing against him.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.
  • speedy2
    speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north

    As I noticed.
    People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.

    Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.

    I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
    We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
    Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else.
    But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere.
    Very low enthusiasm.

    You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.

    Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
    Low turnout in marginals in the north means what? Voters would rather stay at home than vote Tory?
    Or the reverse, Labour voters staying home.
    No one knows for sure.

    We know from the turnout reports that Labour will probably do better than expected in London and in heavy student areas.
    But they hold most of those seats anyway.
  • contrarian
    contrarian Posts: 5,818
    All we have to go on right now is twitter and twitter is dominated by the left
  • OldBasing
    OldBasing Posts: 173
    The £ v. US$ is not looking well.
  • nico67
    nico67 Posts: 5,652
    Turnout in Labour Leave areas was down in the GE in 2017 and at the 2019 Euro elections and I’d expect to see the same again.

    As for what’s being suggested from Esher , I’d be shocked if Raab lost his seat . I’d expect a much lower majority for him but if the Tories lose Esher I would be stunned .
  • ozymandias
    ozymandias Posts: 1,518
    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sorry just seen this, made me giggle.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1204854735095914496
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    edited December 2019
    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Rather than holding up as a big, proud wall to invaders, it might just be becoming a smaller home-made wall with little outside interest.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    NorthofStoke said:

    Pound going down but not sharply

    Usual reaction to growing uncertainty.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529
  • ozymandias
    ozymandias Posts: 1,518
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    1.60
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person?
    Churchill famously referred to Clem Atlee as a modest man, with much to be modest about.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...

    Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LD

    Shameful
  • Fysics_Teacher
    Fysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
    To be fair, how would you know if you had?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    Stop getting my hopes up! It would be hilarious.
  • funkhauser
    funkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    what you calling kinabalu>?

    Con maj 60 to 75.

    As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.

    You?
    my gut is still going for small to moderate Tory Majority (25-40)

    Steve Fisher Oxford Uni who has a good record of analysis & forecasting.

    Con majority 40

    If 2017 style polling error, Con lead 4 points then Con majority 10 seats
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I said this a couple of days ago...

    Yes, Curtice is due for a fall. 3 in a row almost spot on. Asking a lot to repeat the trick a 4th time.
  • Fysics_Teacher
    Fysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person?
    Churchill famously referred to Clem Atlee as a modest man, with much to be modest about.
    But I don’t think he hid his Labour leanings very well.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    edited December 2019
    funkhauser said:

    spudgfsh said:

    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    what you calling kinabalu>?

    Con maj 60 to 75.

    As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.

    You?
    my gut is still going for small to moderate Tory Majority (25-40)

    Steve Fisher Oxford Uni who has a good record of analysis & forecasting.

    Con majority 40

    If 2017 style polling error, Con lead 4 points then Con majority 10 seats
    The latter looks much more likely to me at this point, but we shall obviously all see soon.
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...

    Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LD

    Shameful
    What did labour ever offer the lib dems to ensure Johnson couldnt win.... nothing so fuck off with your ridiculous views
  • rural_voter
    rural_voter Posts: 2,038
    SarahMcD said:

    kinabalu said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    People are talking about Davids 2017 call i think

    Yes, I know. That was legendary apparently.

    Which is why I was sorry to miss his call for this one - if he did one?
    David isn't involved with the Tories any longer. He's made a call (on Twitter), but he's not as well placed as previously.
    Was RCS accurate in 2017?

    I can't remember his forecast.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows

    Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing

    HYUFD was far from confident today

    Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains

    Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings

    Rumours of smaller postal votes being received

    The pound and betting markets falling confidence

    Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017



    If HY isn’t confident, surely all is lost, lost....
  • OnlyLivingBoy
    OnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,660
    kinabalu said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I said this a couple of days ago...

    Yes, Curtice is due for a fall. 3 in a row almost spot on. Asking a lot to repeat the trick a 4th time.
    Admitting the possible fallibility of Curtice is surely PB heresy.
  • nico67
    nico67 Posts: 5,652
    If things are very complicated the exit poll might have a larger than normal range of seats projected for the parties .
  • ozymandias
    ozymandias Posts: 1,518
    edited December 2019
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
    To be fair, how would you know if you had?
    You wouldn’t have just been seeing queues in Brixton. There would have been a deluge of corbynista propaganda all over the country with them all shouting about it.

    But they didn’t. And haven’t.
  • twistedfirestopper3
    twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,641
    We've just voted. Anecdotally, the village hall floor was immaculately clean. Obviously a hung parliament beckons.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    No, not Laura! That would sink my great odds next Lab Leader bet.

    And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Is it possible the HP says they have a huge range and they say it could either be HP or majority as per 1992?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Is it possible the HP says they have a huge range and they say it could either be HP or majority as per 1992?

    I think you've said HP so often it is now replacing other words in your lexicon. :p
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    kinabalu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    No, not Laura! That would sink my great odds next Lab Leader bet.

    And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.
    Really?
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    what you calling kinabalu>?

    Con maj 60 to 75.

    As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.

    You?
    You've been very consistently predicting that.

    My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.

    It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.

    I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    viewcode said:

    I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?

    Probably a targeted facebook from "Boris".
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Reading through some of the recent comments, honestly, if I were a Tory I’d be ashamed of myself today. To be fair, I would on any other day, but particularly so today. Flaky or what?
  • Mauve
    Mauve Posts: 130
    Just went to vote in an incredibly safe Tory seat. For the first time ever here I had to actually queue, with 5 people in front of me.

    The polling clerk has given me a new word to describe turnout as well. It's apparently been "mad" and like this all day.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
    I sent you the video of the Peterborough voters the other day. They’d say don’t know but they’d choose Labour over Tory
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    LOL

    https://twitter.com/SebastianMurdoc/status/1205187398797279235

    The far right nearly falls out with each other as much as the far left.
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    spudgfsh said:

    3ChordTrick said:

    Labour sources Cardiff Central : saying majority likely to match 2017.

    Take what you will from that.

    how on earth can they know that without doing their own exit poll?
    Presumably their GOTV operation is indicating differential turn-out of the same order.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    It’s also the Daily Mail
  • OnlyLivingBoy
    OnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,660
    viewcode said:

    I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?

    I expect the biggest lies in 2016 weren't on the side of the bus.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    Mauve said:

    Just went to vote in an incredibly safe Tory seat. For the first time ever here I had to actually queue, with 5 people in front of me.

    The polling clerk has given me a new word to describe turnout as well. It's apparently been "mad" and like this all day.

    Anecdotes on the profile of voters ?
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows

    Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing

    HYUFD was far from confident today

    Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains

    Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings

    Rumours of smaller postal votes being received

    The pound and betting markets falling confidence

    Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017



    If HY isn’t confident, surely all is lost, lost....
    We’re doomed I tell you doomed
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1205191854079270913
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    No, not Laura! That would sink my great odds next Lab Leader bet.

    And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.
    Really?
    I fear for kinabalu's sanity this evening, if pidders loses,
  • Nemtynakht
    Nemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Update from Plymouth. Quite a lot of people out and about near the University around 4 and got lost and drove past a polling station On Mount St and there was a queue to the gate approx 30 people and a steady stream of people heading towards the polling station.

    There were also some huge Vote Labour signs near the University, and an excellent Boris Jog on homemade sign nearby.

    I have noticed both in North and South Devon that a lot of the Tory signs have been vandalised or graffitied.

    Back near Bristol now and weather has improved through the day between the two cities.
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205191988854886400
  • speedy2
    speedy2 Posts: 981
    Hmm, I think we might see a much higher swing towards Labour in places where they are advancing and much higher swings towards the Conservatives in places where they are advancing.

    Swindon South vs Sunderland Central
  • Time_to_Leave
    Time_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited December 2019
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ozymandias said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ozymandias said:

    KentRising said:

    Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.

    Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.

    And who does?

    Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
    I think shy Labour is more likely
    Who’s ever met a shy Labour person?
    Churchill famously referred to Clem Atlee as a modest man, with much to be modest about.
    But I don’t think he hid his Labour leanings very well.
    He was a red Tory who even served in a Tory PM’s Cabinet! Not pure enough for Corbynites.
  • rural_voter
    rural_voter Posts: 2,038
    nichomar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...

    Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LD

    Shameful
    What did labour ever offer the lib dems to ensure Johnson couldnt win.... nothing so fuck off with your ridiculous views
    I tend to agree with that comment. Until we have PR, tactical voting is unavoidable. Labour though is always incredibly reluctant to come to arrangements with other parties. It clearly expects them to stand down, never the reverse. I think Labour is standing in for instance Abingdon, Cheltenham, Brighton Pavilion, St Albans, Guildford. Most of these are no-hope Labour seats.

    But we only get a final say on a WA - which Lab says it wants - if Lab, LD, SNP, PC, SDLP, Green have >320 seats.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Mauve said:

    Just went to vote in an incredibly safe Tory seat. For the first time ever here I had to actually queue, with 5 people in front of me.

    The polling clerk has given me a new word to describe turnout as well. It's apparently been "mad" and like this all day.

    "Mad"? I assume that is some regional dialect for "brisk"
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205191988854886400

    There's no way canvasing tallies are that precise. Is there any net gain in information by posting tweets from this account?
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    PB Tories - relax and stop being babies!

    Your guy (odious person as he is) is going to remain PM (sadly).

    Even the Murali_s projection gives the Tories a majority of 4.
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    camel said:

    I fear for kinabalu's sanity this evening, if pidders loses,

    Be like getting kicked in the stomach by a mule. And I'd have to retire my #pidcock2024 hashtag just as it was gaining traction.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    #Rumours:

    > Nip and tuck between the Tories and Lib Dems in Cities of London & Westminster.

    > Lib Dems feeling depressed RE Finchley and Kensington, hopeful RE Esher & Walton.

    > Tory vote holding up well in Scotland (in line with polling).

    #GE2019
    https://t.co/9G6GjDxmqr
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205192411762372614
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    camel said:

    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    No, not Laura! That would sink my great odds next Lab Leader bet.

    And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.
    Really?
    I fear for kinabalu's sanity this evening, if pidders loses,
    I tipped Pillock for the chop weeks back.
  • squareroot2
    squareroot2 Posts: 7,098
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    Why dont you just stop mKing pointless posts. You know feck all
  • alex_
    alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Chameleon said:

    Anecdotally I have quite a few (4) friends who are at university but resident in Mr Raab's patch. All four of them requested postal votes and followed through with voting, of the 3 that I knew in 2017, none did so and they all voted at university instead. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very significant swing against him.

    Which university seat has lost their votes?
  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Broxtowe update: It's raining, my polling station was just as busy as last time. One dude commented he didn't realise the local candidates names would be on the paper.
  • Nemtynakht
    Nemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    speedy2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Still surprised we’ve heard little from the north

    As I noticed.
    People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.

    Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.

    I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
    We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
    Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else.
    But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere.
    Very low enthusiasm.

    You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.

    Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
    Low turnout in marginals in the north means what? Voters would rather stay at home than vote Tory?
    Or stay at home rather vote Labour?
  • CorrectHorseBattery
    CorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    squareroot2 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    Why dont you just stop mKing pointless posts. You know feck all
    Thanks for your support I’ll keep posting
  • funkhauser
    funkhauser Posts: 325
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    You believe him?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Momentum just knocked Tory HQ in Chingford, what data are they working off?
  • ozymandias
    ozymandias Posts: 1,518
    Labour voters staying at home outside London.

    Built on instinct. It’s slipping away from them.
  • kinabalu
    kinabalu Posts: 46,273
    nichomar said:

    Really?

    Yes absolutely. Very young, though, so it's mainly about her potential. I sense something a little bit special. We'll see - assuming she holds.
  • Mauve
    Mauve Posts: 130
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Mauve said:

    Just went to vote in an incredibly safe Tory seat. For the first time ever here I had to actually queue, with 5 people in front of me.

    The polling clerk has given me a new word to describe turnout as well. It's apparently been "mad" and like this all day.

    Anecdotes on the profile of voters ?
    Mostly seemed to be young-ish or middle aged, which makes sense given the time of day. This is a polling station in a small village on the edge of tow, so high proportion of elderly voters, with a lot of commuters.
  • alex_
    alex_ Posts: 7,518
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205191988854886400

    What should the over 30s do?

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/toryfibs/status/1205191988854886400

    There's no way canvasing tallies are that precise. Is there any net gain in information by posting tweets from this account?
    You'd need tellers in every polling station providing live time information to get that kind of detail.
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    My anecdote from the heart of London. I walked past a couple of Westminster polling stations at lunchtime and there was absolutely no one queuing at either.
  • nichomar
    nichomar Posts: 7,483
    3.5 hours to go

    Tories bed wetting
    Labour silent (but they may be using their time more usefully than on here)
    Lib Dems have come to terms with whatever the outcome is but also seem to using their time more productively.

    What will be will be be generous in victory and defeat we all have to start again tomorrow.

  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    It sounds just like the kind of thing everyone always says when trying to encourage people to go out knocking on doors.
  • Fysics_Teacher
    Fysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1205191854079270913

    If it is the unabridged version, then yes. On the other hand I tend to only buy audiobooks of books I particularly like. I lose concentration listening to them (or use them to drop off to sleep) and it is much harder to go back to bits you missed than with the printed page.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    Hearing Wimbledon is the perfect split opposition pattern. Even in my sample of friends 45% voted Labour, 45% voted LD, 10% voted Other (Cons).

    Means Stephen Hammond survives!
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    viewcode said:

    I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?

    I expect the biggest lies in 2016 weren't on the side of the bus.
    I think that's true. We are in a little PB bubble. I don't know why people voted Leave, other than what they tell me, the Ashcroft surveys, Goodwin's papers, and the other guys papers (I forget their names). I had heard the pink lightbulb motive (somebody voted to Leave because you can't get pink lightbulbs no more, allegedly) but all the thousands of little micromotives elude me. It's always disconcerting when you realise the world in your head is different to other people's.
  • ozymandias
    ozymandias Posts: 1,518
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1205191854079270913

    If it is the unabridged version, then yes. On the other hand I tend to only buy audiobooks of books I particularly like. I lose concentration listening to them (or use them to drop off to sleep) and it is much harder to go back to bits you missed than with the printed page.
    Surely that poll points to a HUNG PARLIAMENT?? 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    https://twitter.com/tedward13/status/1205190267147620354

    That sounds like Tory panic to me
    Or being very sensible, in taking nothing for granted.
  • speedy2
    speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    ozymandias said:

    Labour voters staying at home outside London.

    Built on instinct. It’s slipping away from them.

    I have the suspicion that Conservatives may gain Sunderland while losing Swindon.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Something tells me that the younger voters may be feeling more bothered to brave the rain than the still pro-Brexit, but older voters.

    On the other hand, I still think the postal votes could still be just cancelling that out.

    Moving my forecast to the lower end of 0-30, to 0-15, but as ever still too early to say.

    A lot of people thought high turnout in bad weather favoured Remain in 2016. It did not turn out that way.
    Maybe it did. Maybe it the result in good weather was 55% Leave.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQC
    AramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    RochdalePioneers said:

    camel said:

    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pinch of salt caveats wrt rumours etc, but that was an 18% Lab maj last time, and it's only a moderately leavy area.


    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529

    No, not Laura! That would sink my great odds next Lab Leader bet.

    And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.
    Really?
    I fear for kinabalu's sanity this evening, if pidders loses,
    I tipped Pillock for the chop weeks back.
    If this comes to pass, the weeks of official mourning from the Pidders rampers will be too much to bear.
  • UpTheMariners
    UpTheMariners Posts: 7
    Greetings from the Land of the Fish! Voting brisk, mid-brisk and unbrisk here. Went to local polling station (junior school at 7.30am - they'd earlier had to improvise with an alfresco booth and box system because the caretaker slept and didn't get there to open up til 7.10am!! My local guesses - Conservative gains in Great Grimsby, |Scunthorpe, Lincoln and (possibly) Hull West and Hessle but - like everyone else - I have no idea whats going to happen ....
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
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