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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead

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  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Heard on Twitter the Russians are going to launch a major cyber attack on the UK internet at 9.59 after they get their bets on at the last minute, it must be true because you heard it here
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Oh dear, can someone poke the hamster?
  • God spare us from Conservatives who, fresh from a referendum campaign on Brexit won by scaring people with untrue stories that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain and are backing for Prime Minister a man who sought to suspend democracy to impose a mandateless policy with enduring consequences on the country and who concluded his election campaign with a posh man’s version of “send the immigrants home”, worry about the ethical credentials of their opponents.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...

    Could be a kicking in the north, and a massive boost in the campuses and campus towns, and London.
    Perhaps. There are only a handful of campus towns not already in Labour hands, though.

    The university towns have swung to Labour in 2010 and 2015 and 2017 already, as memories of the Iraq war receded.
  • tyson said:

    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.

    That's the only conclusion.
    Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second..
    Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly
    Why should it be silenced?

    All those lefties that were outraged by the Farage poster endlessly screaming racism are now happy to vote for Corbyn's Labour party.

    Could anyone make that up?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605

    Looking at the breakdown of the polling stations I've seen I think Labour are going to get a kicking. Off out to see some more in half an hour...

    Could be a kicking in the north, and a massive boost in the campuses and campus towns, and London.
    From the MRP Labour are expected to do very well in seats like this:

    Putney
    Chipping Barnet
    Canterbury
    Portsmouth South
    Bristol NW
    Cambridge
    Leeds NW
    Reading East
    Wirral West
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648

    Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    nichomar said:

    Ave_it said:

    At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!

    It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!

    Where are you I made up the spare bed and bought an extra bottle of cordoniu to celebrate the election results
    nichomar said:

    Ave_it said:

    At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!

    It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!

    Where are you I made up the spare bed and bought an extra bottle of cordoniu to celebrate the election results
    nichomar said:

    Ave_it said:

    At 9pm you will get the Ave it prediction!

    It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!

    Where are you I made up the spare bed and bought an extra bottle of cordoniu to celebrate the election results
    Hello Nichomar

    At home in London at the moment! But I have Ryanair.com and easyjet.com up in case Corbyn wins and I have to move to Spain to rent a room off you!
  • RobD said:

    There's no way canvasing tallies are that precise. Is there any net gain in information by posting tweets from this account?
    You'd need tellers in every polling station providing live time information to get that kind of detail.
    Or a good source at Google HQ.
    :smile:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.

    That's the only conclusion.
    True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.

    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.

    That's the only conclusion.
    True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.

    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.

    That's the only conclusion.
    True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.
    Yebbut there is no evidence of Pablo Escobar personally dealing cocaine.

    I am baffled by the whining about Corbyn not being personally anti semitic. It suggests there are values of x for which Corbyn being xly anti semitic is perfectly fine and dandy. What are these values?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Anyone else having issues loading the site?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    Tory Fibs is putting out a lot of fibs of his own, like knowing that a particular constituency is hinging on 10 votes at the moment.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited December 2019

    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.

    That's the only conclusion.
    True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.
    Yebbut there is no evidence of Pablo Escobar personally dealing cocaine.

    I am baffled by the whining about Corbyn not being personally anti semitic. It suggests there are values of x for which Corbyn being xly anti semitic is perfectly fine and dandy. What are these values?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else having issues loading the site?

    Yes, the hamster is tired.
  • So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.

    Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    algarkirk said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    And me, and millions more who admire and respect the Jewish community.

    Last night at a Corbyn rally they were chanting

    “from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free”,

    the genocidal promise of Hamas to drive out the Jews from Israel/Palestine.

    Strange that the only war the "stop the war " lot ever seem to want is against Israel

    Strange that

    Remind me of their past and current leadership again?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    All set for the evening!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else having issues loading the site?

    I had a minor problem reloading just now.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Gabs3 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648

    Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...

    They were 4 points behind in 2017, reasonable for Labour to campaign there. You could write a very long book about antisemetism in the Labour, don't need to get the tinfoil hats out as well.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory Fibs is putting out a lot of fibs of his own, like knowing that a particular constituency is hinging on 10 votes at the moment.

    Chown? Fibbing? Never!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else having issues loading the site?

    Yes, hamster is tired.
    Yep - this bad boy might not be able to take the load later... is there a plan B?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Gabs3 said:

    Byronic said:

    Gabs3 said:

    How many of us are feeling:

    https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691

    Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.

    Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.

    That's the only conclusion.
    I am coming to the conclusion I will need to emigrate im the next decade or so. These people will become the majority sooner or later.
    For pity's sake give it a rest
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    All set for the evening!

  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory Fibs is putting out a lot of fibs of his own, like knowing that a particular constituency is hinging on 10 votes at the moment.

    Chown? Fibbing? Never!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else having issues loading the site?

    Yes, hamster is tired.
    Give it some Weetabix.
  • Brace
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    God spare us from Conservatives who, fresh from a referendum campaign on Brexit won by scaring people with untrue stories that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain and are backing for Prime Minister a man who sought to suspend democracy to impose a mandateless policy with enduring consequences on the country and who concluded his election campaign with a posh man’s version of “send the immigrants home”, worry about the ethical credentials of their opponents.

    Everyone worries about the ethical credentials of their opponents.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else having issues loading the site?

    Yes, hamster is tired.
    Yep - this bad boy might not be able to take the load later... is there a plan B?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Passed 3 polling places whilst driving home. Turnout looked brisk.
  • Brace
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else having issues loading the site?

    I had a minor problem reloading just now.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Gabs3 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648

    Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...

    They were 4 points behind in 2017, reasonable for Labour to campaign there. You could write a very long book about antisemetism in the Labour, don't need to get the tinfoil hats out as well.
  • So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.

    Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!
  • So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.

    Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    We back?
  • And we are back. Was worried then.
  • I think we're back.
  • And we are back. Was worried then.
  • Brace
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Passed 3 polling places whilst driving home. Turnout looked brisk.
  • Testicle.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    OMG IT'S ALIIIIVE
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    We back? :o:o:o:o
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Hooray! Anyone actually think Boris in trouble? Sky News Australia only source
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    PB better stand up to tonight's immense strain, it's like a hand holding mine through the stresses of the night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    All set for the evening!

    You crashed PB with this post. :)
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    PB down and it's now 1.41

    Coincidence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    That was hell!
  • Betfair Con Majority now down to 1.41
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Betfair feeling better about a Con majority
  • And, we're back.

    Pidders defenestration rumours intensify on Twitter.
  • Ah - we're back.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    First PM from the Lords in fifty+ years confirmed!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I was only joking about a Russian cyber attack honest
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    Thank god for that, I didn't particularly want to spend the evening and night on Twitter.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    These so called info from the campaigns is often total hogwash . Done to force others to redirect campaign resources to where they’ll be wasted .

    On a different issue did anyone see the astonishing bias from Vicky Young today on the BBC, saying Johnson deserved a majority .

    The BBC have lost a lot of credibility in this election .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Can activists tell me if that sort of thing actually makes any difference?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    edited December 2019
    What is everybody drinking tonight?

    Just dropped my wife off to vote in Rushcliffe (I voted this morning) -Turnout high in this rare remain northern(ish) seat. No Ken Clarke this time who had a big personal vote.

    Wife reported that they handed her an unfolded ballot paper
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Just been running round Mosborough and Killamarsh, turnout brisk in Killamarsh
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Not sure what Lib Dem vote there was to collapse, they lost their deposit in 2017!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    nichomar said:

    I was only joking about a Russian cyber attack honest

    Nice try, comrade, OGH is on his way to your house as we speak.
  • Brom said:

    Hooray! Anyone actually think Boris in trouble? Sky News Australia only source

    Much as I am right on board with that rumour, the LD vote share last time was just under 4%, so it's collapse isn't that exciting.
  • Just did the democratic duty in Alyn & Deeside.

    It was absolutely heaving compared to normal. 6 people in there with me. Never ever seen that before. Could this mean something seismic?*




    *er no, because I normally vote on my own at 7am.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....

    But what if I miss it? :o
  • Andy_JS said:

    nichomar said:

    I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows

    Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.

    It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
    Absolutely.

    In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,

    They won by 3,000 votes.
    Once the count is well under way its pretty simple. Walk up and down looking at tables. You can see who is ahead.
    Yes, but it can take some time before you get to that point.
  • So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.

    Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!
  • Been out....Turn out very large...for Christmas parties that is.
  • Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....

    There'll be a new thread at 10pm with the exit poll.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    We will find out soon.
    If the Conservatives win Sunderland Central they have won the election.
    If not, then look at the swing in Swindon.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    The sidesplitter would be him losing by one vote, having voted himself in Westminster!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Hello, hello. Are you still there?

    Time to go anyway, just before the PB victory lap begins. Before that they will panic and I will be encouraged, and then BONG Boris Johnson set for a landslide majority.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    More rumours about Pidcock, hrrrm. Still dubious here.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Less than two hours until The Big Bong! :D
  • RobD said:

    All set for the evening!

    You crashed PB with this post. :)
    Absolutely disgraceful waste of pineapple
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    edited December 2019
    One thing that really worries me is I've followed this election pretty closely and now I try to think back I can barely remember a single conservative policy (other than, of course "get Brexit done" - which is really more of an aspiration than a policy at this point).

    On the other hand I can remember dozens of Labour ones. From free internet to the WASPI pledge to cutting fares for commuters to taxing those earning over 80k.

    What I'm saying is that Labour have given people something to vote for. The Tories have not.

    If the Tories scrape home narrowly tonight the spectre of Corbynism will remain. I just don't think they've done enough to discredit it. And Labour may well get lucky next time round.
  • RobD said:

    Can I suggest that ONLY a Mod posts the exit poll? 82 smart arses trying to post it first is not good for the site.....

    But what if I miss it? :o
    Great idea Mark.

    But please can we also avoid 82 posts in the final 10 minutes asking people to leave the Exit Poll to a mod?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    The Betfair markets i'm monitoring are out of sync again.

  • Foxy said:

    The sidesplitter would be him losing by one vote, having voted himself in Westminster!
    That reminds me of the candidate in the locals the other year that got 0 votes....he didn't even remember to vote for himself.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Had a Truman Show experience when site went down. The real world came into view. 😜
  • Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andrew said:

    More rumours about Pidcock, hrrrm. Still dubious here.

    Her constant tweeting suggests it’s probably tight. I doubt her personal vote is high so that might mean Con outperform the MRP a bit
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    Stoke Newington.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    Workington?
  • Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    If only there was a spreadsheet that showed that...
  • So if Labour hold Workington + Stoke Newington, that is a bad sign for the Tories?

    Something of a 1992 Basildon if you will
  • Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    If only there was a spreadsheet that showed that...
    Can you kindly link me?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    So anecdote from Hampshire constituency. Just voted Lib Dem.

    Busier than I’ve ever seen it but it’s usually dead so what do I know!

    echo chamber?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    So if Labour hold Workington + Stoke Newington, that is a bad sign for the Tories?

    Something of a 1992 Basildon if you will

    Lord above.
  • Had a Truman Show experience when site went down. The real world came into view. 😜

    I feared I had been exiled to Conservative Home.
  • Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    If only there was a spreadsheet that showed that...
    Can you kindly link me?
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
  • Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    The spreadsheet is your friend:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=0
  • There's something of a shift I am observing in these hours, which is a bit like 2017.
  • Can somebody remind me of a typical Leave seat to look out for early on, which will give an indication of how the Tories are doing?

    The spreadsheet is your friend:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=0
    Thank you.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Gabs3 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/lucianaberger/status/1205097181486747648

    Of course they want to go out their way to ensure the Jew doesn't get elected...

    Tory Hold Berger out of a job
This discussion has been closed.