You know the image coming out of both sides is remarkably mixed, doesn’t really scream landslide to me
It’s tough, though isn’t it. My first successful local election campaign, I remember dragging a young couple away from their dinner with fifteen minutes until polls closed, persuading them with my account of how the election was on a knife edge and promising to get them back home before their dinner got cold. Then went to the count and we won by over a thousand.
I did write them a nice personal letter afterwards, a mixture of apology and thanks.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
The Survation poll suggested a very tight contest in Stockton South.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.
Back in the days when we understood politics, both Walsall seats were reasonably comfortably though not overwhelmingly Lab. South had a bigger middle class but was also more heavily Asian. It has swung away from the Conservatives as north has swung towards. I'd be amazed if it was close.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.
If the Tories are taking seats up to 124, they won't mourn Raab as a bit of collateral damage......
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
Your candidate even asked people not to vote for him yesterday? Or have i got wrong Constituency?
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.
If the Tories are taking seats up to 124, they won't mourn Raab as a bit of collateral damage......
I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Are you still wearing the green jumper?
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?
No, I couldn’t risk strangers hanging tinsel and baubles on me.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
Ah yes, later in the night we'll be getting the 'Party X looking very glum at the count in constituency Y, they think they've lost by 4,000 votes' reports, followed by Party X winning easily. It's a noble tradition of election nights.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
By 2 pm, I had no idea whether Leave or Remain had won in Luton. By 4 pm, I thought it was about 54/46 Leave. It turned out to be 57/43.
“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
That'll be the homophobe Stormzy? But that's OK, he's part of your tribe
Thank goodness for democracy, where everyone's vote is worth the same. Unlike on social media where the people who make the most noise get the most attention and quiet people are ignored.
This is the first election in my adult life where I haven't really got involved due to disillusionment with the whole politics thing.
I now deeply regret that decision. Sitting around nervously with nothing to do, looking at the clock, digesting all the rumours and ramping... it's a fucking nightmare. It's torture. It's like watching your team defending a 1-0 lead and the fourth official shows 8 minutes stoppage time.
Getting out on the ground takes the edge off and provides camaraderie and focus. I'm never not getting involved again!
It’s not like they don’t have enough activists. In Chingford they have hundreds. My assumption would be they’ve won it
Jesus christ. Or maybe that they've not got much realistic prospect of winning it? Did that ever cross your mind? Your constant ramping is hilarious, come 17:00 tomorrow I doubt that we'll ever hear again from you (I assume that your contract ends on a Friday right?)
Also, unless it is a 1997 style landslide, by 7pm you very rarely know for certain that you've won a seat or not.
In terms of pulling out of seats, Momentum and Labour don’t tend to do that unless they have a lot of confidence they’re secure.
Momentum were absolutely convinced that they had won Wandsworth in 2018. It did not turn out that way. I thought their human wave tactics in Shaftesbury Ward were counter-productive.
“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
Well I'm convinced - a famous person says it and swears while doing so, he must surely be able to see into the hearts of men.
I wonder if the Tories could have some bad losses in the South, such as even Grieve winning, and then offset that with a few midland northern gains, with the result of a majority of 10 or so.
At the same time, they might not have made quite enough progress in the north for that, or the postal votes may not be enough.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.
If the Tories are taking seats up to 124, they won't mourn Raab as a bit of collateral damage......
He might still hold on!
I do hope not. Massive Tory landslide with Raab, Patel, Johnson and Gove losing would be my perfect result.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
Ah yes, later in the night we'll be getting the 'Party X looking very glum at the count in constituency Y, they think they've lost by 4,000 votes' reports, followed by Party X winning easily. It's a noble tradition of election nights.
The most famous example was Bob Marshall-Andrews declaring he'd lost his seat in Medway in 2005 and then winning it a few hours later by 200 votes.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
Absolutely.
In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,
I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.
That's the only conclusion.
Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second.. Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly
I know it pains you to realise that, for the first time in your life, you are clearly and unambiguously supporting the racist, fascist, nasty, anti-Semite party - the Bad Guys - but there it is, Own it. I will not zip it.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Say he does lose, what are the Tories going to do about him. Will someone stand down straight away to get him back in.
I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)
Of course its not universal! But they will nationally break heavily Labour and over 65 break 50/15 Tories. One of the few ways the polls could all be very wrong is if far more young people vote than expected (or fewer old people vote than expected).
I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)
My 28 year old and his girlfriend are voting tory
This is a quote from a text he sent me earlier today
"there is no way I want the Labour scum in"
He did not get that from me - we rarely talk politics
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.
That's the only conclusion.
True of some but there is a total unconscious blocking of the reality of the LP leadership in the case of many. In some ways it is more frightening in that I don't know what can be done but in other ways less frightening because the scales must drop eventually. The evidence about Corbyn and antisemitism and his support for repressive regimes and vile terrorists is overwhelming but some will not see.
I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
As noted it is mostly true. What I dont like is the automatic assumption from some that they should do so, or old people should gite Tory, with the unspoken implication of being wrong for not doing so.
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
Labour voters are either anti-Semites, or don't mind a bit of vile anti-Semitism.
That's the only conclusion.
Can you just zip it with anti semite stuff for one second.. Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly
I know it pains you to realise that, for the first time in your life, you are clearly and unambiguously supporting the racist, fascist, nasty, anti-Semite party - the Bad Guys - but there it is, Own it. I will not zip it.
That’s not quite fair. He’s supporting one of the MANY racist, fascist etc...
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Say he does lose, what are the Tories going to do about him. Will someone stand down straight away to get him back in.
If Valerie Vaz loses, then who cares - Boris will have 500 MPs to choose from
I'm sick of hearing how everyone under 30 is going to vote Labour. It's such a lazy cliche.
Age is the biggest divider of how we vote nowadays, far bigger than class or income. Of course its going to get highlighted?
I was surprised at how many youngsters were voting Con. whilst out canvassing. That they are universally thought to be in the Labour column is very lazy.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)
I would expect the young outside the metropolis and universities probably vote closer to the rest of the population. It's just the majority of young people congregate in cities, and a larger proportion of them went/go to university.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Completely agree. Even people at the count at 2 in the morning don't always know what's going on, after they've already been counting votes for 4 hours.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
Absolutely.
In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,
They won by 3,000 votes.
Once the count is well under way its pretty simple. Walk up and down looking at tables. You can see who is ahead.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?
It means ‘Nation, Nation’ (roughly - it doesn’t translate well into English). They’re the first two words of the chorus of Land of My Fathers.
I should have known that by the translated title of Land of My Fathers.
I have subsequently learned that they are guerrilla Plaid Cymru bods who disagreed with standing aside, and are thus standing in four seats. Waste of a deposit if you ask me. Not that anyone has.
Comments
I did write them a nice personal letter afterwards, a mixture of apology and thanks.
What if the gains the Tories make actually turn out to be incredibly random but crucially small?
If they’re getting seats on their target list at over 100, the polls have to be incredibly wrong the other way surely.
It's entertaining to read all the rumours and gossip but they mean very little.
Oh. Goner you said? Ah. Sorry I thought you'd written Gooner.
Goner? Oh that's ok.
There’s a Radio 6?
https://www.twitter.com/Sara_Rose_G/status/1205179695643463691
Even if Corbyn is kept out, I will never trust my fellow British Millenials again.
By the way who are Gwlad,Gwlad? I didn't know who they were so they didn't get my vote. Should I have buyer's remorse?
Edit to add link https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/11/21/stormzy-has-posted-homophobic-tweets-calling-people-faggots-and-proper-gay/
And do we really think that kind of turnout was factored into the opinion polls?
No. Me neither.
That's the only conclusion.
Could Boris disaster last few days and Corbyns strong finish have been inspired by their internal polling?
I now deeply regret that decision. Sitting around nervously with nothing to do, looking at the clock, digesting all the rumours and ramping... it's a fucking nightmare. It's torture. It's like watching your team defending a 1-0 lead and the fourth official shows 8 minutes stoppage time.
Getting out on the ground takes the edge off and provides camaraderie and focus. I'm never not getting involved again!
Also, unless it is a 1997 style landslide, by 7pm you very rarely know for certain that you've won a seat or not.
Will CHB be named poster of the DECADE later?!
Corbyn has dealt terribly with it badly
At the same time, they might not have made quite enough progress in the north for that, or the postal votes may not be enough.
1.52/3.1
Is it going to keep bouncing betwwen 1.5 and 1.6 till 9.59pm or will it bust through at one end
It's currently the subject of a plausibility review by Curtice!
Looking at the sheets as they crossed my name off it didn't seem like a high turnout.
Lib Dems complaining about Labour people spamming their candidates website
In 2010 I was at the count for Penistone & Stocksbridge updating the spreadsheet with the test counts for the Tories. We didn’t have any previous count data, so there was some guesswork (I’d calculated targets from canvassing data). At about 2am I couldn’t call it for sure, although thought we’d probably lost. Labour, who would have had far better data than us, looked really panicked which was giving me some hope,
They won by 3,000 votes.
(With the caveat that the young are not a major demographic in Totnes and South Devon!)
Think that as we get later and later, they are suffering from history not having repeated itself.
Eventually we will get a war or something that may wake them up.
https://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/YesMinisterReaction61.gif
This is a quote from a text he sent me earlier today
"there is no way I want the Labour scum in"
He did not get that from me - we rarely talk politics
Especially with low interest rates.
Joke.
(Or is it?)
Tories still favourites in Esher
IDS looks OK in Chingford, according to odds
I have subsequently learned that they are guerrilla Plaid Cymru bods who disagreed with standing aside, and are thus standing in four seats. Waste of a deposit if you ask me. Not that anyone has.