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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead % in their final surveys

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Comments

  • MarkLittlewoodMarkLittlewood Posts: 36
    First?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

    Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    kinabalu said:

    Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

    Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    What was the average final polling in 2017?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    kinabalu said:

    Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

    Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

    No, all those polls give a bigger Tory lead than 2017
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    The Britain Elects poll tracker projects Labour will be down ~11pts (vs. GE2017) in the North of England, compared to 8pts in London, 7pts in the East Midlands, and 5pts in the West Midlands.

    Take a look: https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D https://t.co/xEmOOvngPj
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    This is tremendous:

    Is this Britain's worst polling station?

    https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/britains-worst-polling-station-17408970#ICID=Android_HuddersfieldExaminerNewsApp_AppShare
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Not first, like Corbyn.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    kinabalu said:

    Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

    Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited December 2019
    Gabs3 said:

    What was the average final polling in 2017?

    ~6.5%....but the variance was huge, from -2 <-> +13.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gabs3 said:

    What was the average final polling in 2017?

    ~6.5%....but the variance was huge.
    Pollsters have learnt their lesson since 2017.... haven't they? :o
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited December 2019
    12th like Corbyn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gabs3 said:

    What was the average final polling in 2017?

    ~6.5%....but the variance was huge.
    Pollsters have learnt their lesson since 2017.... haven't they? :o
    Are you trying to set me off into blind panic?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

    Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time
    It’s profit taking.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited December 2019
    All things considered it's hard to believe that Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Gabs3 said:

    What was the average final polling in 2017?

    ~6.5%....but the variance was huge.
    Pollsters have learnt their lesson since 2017.... haven't they? :o
    Are you trying to set me off into blind panic?
    I think they've moved in the wrong direction. Lab +10 nailed on.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Brom said:

    All things considered it's hard to believe than Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

    That's my conclusion. When you pair it with the Tories seemingly receding slightly in the leafy rural areas with massive majorities, it looks to be promising for vote efficiency.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

    Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

    I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited December 2019
    Brom said:

    All things considered it's hard to believe than Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

    Yes Labour flooding Barnet apparently as well as here in Chingford and looking to pick up London seats to make up for northern losses. Hearing Raab under threat in Esher where apparently it looks very close at the moment but hopefully he clings on
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    I think the disquiet by some conservatives on here is the evidence of a big youth turnout in London and virtually nothing from anywhere else

    At this stage nobody knows nor how much this bad weather will have affected voting outside London
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    kinabalu said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

    Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

    I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?
    Or a bit like Brexit, those with the big money in the market exist in a small bubble and seeing big queues in their local area.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    kle4 said:

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

    I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

    Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

    I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

    Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.
    Everyone is spooked by 2017.
  • danielmawbsdanielmawbs Posts: 96
    I’m absolutely bricking it today. Very hard to concentrate at work.

    Polling station I went to was busy, a slightly older man (probably mid to late 50’s) being helped in by his nurse, a couple leaving and another couple turning up.

    Won’t make any difference as Laurence Robertson will still be elected.

    Also, I saw somebody pointed out that it’s exactly 12 months since T.May Won her VONC meaning she was safe from being ousted for a full 12 months.🤔
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

    I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

    Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.
    Everyone is spooked by 2017.
    Definitely...aren't we all....Most elections when the average poll lead is large i.e. 10%, normally the only talk is just how big the majority will be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    @FrancisUrquhart - are the charts on your page live, and not placeholders?

    *innocent face*
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    kinabalu said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

    Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

    I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?
    In London and the south but unlikely to help in the north

    I think it is quite difficult to say with any confidence between a hung parliament or a majority to be honest
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    HYUFD said:

    No, all those polls give a bigger Tory lead than 2017

    I know. So why the bearish tint in the betting? Is it punters fighting the last war?

    You know, like you tend to do with all your "John Kerry in a skirt" monkey business?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

    Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

    I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?
    ...and whether punters would have any way of knowing that that was happening.

    If I were a worried rich person or a hedge fund manager I would be lumping hugely on NOM or laying con maj for reasons you can deduce from the phrase "hedge fund", irrespective of my expectations of the outcome. I wonder if that is what is happening.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

    I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

    Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.
    Everyone is spooked by 2017.
    Definitely...aren't we all....Most elections when the average poll lead is large i.e. 10%, normally the only talk is just how big the majority will be.
    I am spooked by the turnout queues today.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    kinabalu said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

    Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

    I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?
    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    kinabalu said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They have been settled at about 1.48 for some time

    Big change from the recent lows though. And a fair bit longer than after the 28 seat YouGov got processed.

    I wonder if Remainers are turning out in big numbers and voting super smart?
    If they are, how would anyone know and so why would it affect how people bet?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Turnout market on betfair doesn't seem to have changed too much. 60-70 still 1.6, 70-80 2.9ish
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    RobD said:

    @FrancisUrquhart - are the charts on your page live, and not placeholders?

    *innocent face*

    LOL
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    kinabalu said:

    Cons drifting like a barge in the betting!

    Could it be slipping away from "Boris"? Has the nation rumbled him?

    I'm amazed that you've already got an accurate gauge of turnout and VI
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The available evidence suggests a Conservative majority. The quality of that evidence, however, is not high and it might be misleading.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Chameleon said:

    Brom said:

    All things considered it's hard to believe than Lab 11% down in the North isn't true. You've got a more favourable Tory leader in Boris, crap weather, a BXP offering more threat than UKIP and 2 extra years of anti Britain pro 2nd ref Corbyn since 2017. I wouldn't be surprised if they are down more in the North and down less in London.

    That's my conclusion. When you pair it with the Tories seemingly receding slightly in the leafy rural areas with massive majorities, it looks to be promising for vote efficiency.
    That's very much my view. I think the Conservatives will slip back slightly in the South where the LDs are way behind (most of the time), but will see their vote hold up (or even increase slightly in the North). I also think BXP will mostly taken Northern Labour Leave voters who can't stomach voting for Johnson, but don't want to vote for Corbyn.

    Result: Conservative majority of around 100.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The available evidence suggests a Conservative majority. The quality of that evidence, however, is not high and it might be misleading.

    I like how your new avatar focuses in on the best part of the photo. ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    Andrew said:

    Turnout market on betfair doesn't seem to have changed too much. 60-70 still 1.6, 70-80 2.9ish

    With this weather 65% may be likely
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

    I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

    Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.
    Im pretty sure some of it is nervousness re 2017 and reports of high youth turnout (notwithstanding the fact that the only photo evidence we have for this is from London and Central Manchester seats (I think).

    Personally I don’t think anyone has an effing clue what’s going on at this stage in an election. You hear the odd rumour but it’s impossible to corroborate. Heck, look at how the betting odds tend to wiggle all over the place at a by-election before crashing home shortly before the result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,043
    Just got in after GOTV for Lib Dems in Colne Valley. We also have a local by-election in Colne Valley ward. Started in steady drizzle which got heavier and heavier. Many voters will have soggy leaflets. Lib Dems telling but no others. Indeed Labour put in a complaint that the Lib Dems were asking voters for their poll cards. Lots of Labour activity on the streets but no sign of Conservative activity ( probably on the phones). Turnout at noon was about twice the usual.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,682
    Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    In London and the south but unlikely to help in the north

    I think it is quite difficult to say with any confidence between a hung parliament or a majority to be honest

    No indeed. I have my betting position which pays a packet on big Con win. And I have my political sensibility which takes a battering on same. So I'm incredibly nervous both ways. Cat on a hot tin roof. Want a drink but mustn't. Need to stay very calm. Perhaps some buddhism is in order. Yes, definitely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    I think that the ghosts of 2017 are influencing everyone too much. The pollsters aren't wrong. The Conservative vote efficiency will be up.

    To me, the really interesting questions are:

    1. Will Jo Swinson hold her seat? It will be a big win for the LDs if the SNP's gain East Dumbartonshire.
    2. Will my bet on the Greens vs BXP come in? I've got a small bet on the Green Meanies.
    3. Will any of the likely Labour leadership challengers lose their seats?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.

    But they don't.. the story has been about Labour closing the gap for weeks now ;)
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The available evidence suggests a Conservative majority. The quality of that evidence, however, is not high and it might be misleading.

    I like how your new avatar focuses in on the best part of the photo. ;)
    The Red Guardian's trousers and the Green Lantern's jumper!

    Also, does he have something in his pocket, or is he just pleased to see himself?!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TrèsDifficile said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The available evidence suggests a Conservative majority. The quality of that evidence, however, is not high and it might be misleading.

    I like how your new avatar focuses in on the best part of the photo. ;)
    The Red Guardian's trousers and the Green Lanterns jumper!

    Also, does he have something in his pocket, or is he just pleased to see himself?!
    I wasn't talking about the jumper. :p

    *ahem* :D
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    Tories will be 😁
    Labour will be 😠
    PB will be 🤓
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

    I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

    Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

    Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.
    Those of us who are the real elite wrote it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Do we have odds on what dukedom Curtice will be offered if he gets it right this time?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    RobD said:

    Do we have odds on what dukedom Curtice will be offered if he gets it right this time?

    He'll just get given Scotland to sort out......
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.

    If I've learn't anything it is: nothing hurts Johnson but the potential of seeing one of his long lost children.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

    I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

    Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

    Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

    First time I voted, their was a policeman in full riot gear next to the voting booths. Must have been whichever election it was for us May 1991.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

    I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

    Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

    Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

    Maybe the Police were voting?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IshmaelZ said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    Tories will be 😁
    Labour will be 😠
    PB will be 🤓
    Lib Dems will be 😭
    SNP will be 😍
    Twitter will be 🔔🔚
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    #GE2019 Nowcast (12th Dec):

    CON: 344 (-1), 43.3% (+0.4)
    LAB: 223 (-1), 33.8% (+1.1)
    SNP: 45 (+2), 3.7% (-0.2)
    LDM: 14 (=), 11.7% (-1.3)

    See the graphics for full results.
    Changes w/ 6th Dec.

    Polls from 9-11 Dec.
    Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/jNVQHYMAUU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Or a bit like Brexit, those with the big money in the market exist in a small bubble and seeing big queues in their local area.

    I think big turnout. But it's the differential turnout that matters, isn't it? Who is most energized? Remainers and anti-Tories to stop Boris, or Labour WWC Leavers to Get Brexit Done?

    Remainers do seem up for it. I sense this very strongly. But perhaps the other lot are too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Time_to_Leave said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.
    Those of us who are the real elite wrote it.
    Wrote it down.

    Diamond tier dictated it.

    Diamond tier are a right bunch of dictators.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

    I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

    Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

    Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

    Maybe the Police were voting?
    I hope that's it. No blue lights or other activity which seems to be a good sign.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited December 2019
    Gabs3 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Based on what? Voting looks brisk? That's not much to base it on even if he has blown it.

    I really don't know. Has anybody heard anything reliable and fascinating?

    Certainly Con maj should be MUCH shorter than the 1.5 mark based on the evidence that I'm aware of.
    Everyone is spooked by 2017.
    Definitely...aren't we all....Most elections when the average poll lead is large i.e. 10%, normally the only talk is just how big the majority will be.
    I am spooked by the turnout queues today.
    Perhaps I would have been spooked in 2017, but the seats with high numbers of graduates are almost all red now. Young non graduates will have lower turnout and break more towards the Tories. The lack of news from these Lab battlegrounds is frustrating to say the least, I’m guessing there is no overall sign of Lab holding up or Tories surging so much with the MRP we are likely to have a random smattering of Con gains amongst their top 80 target seats, more like hacking bits out of the red wall rather than smashing it down. 20-25 gains should guarantee a majority.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Don't forget the Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1205146378135101440
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    RobD said:

    Everyone is spooked by 2017.

    That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.

    I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    MarqueeMark said:

    Time_to_Leave said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.
    Those of us who are the real elite wrote it.
    Wrote it down.

    Diamond tier dictated it.

    Diamond tier are a right bunch of dictators.....
    I thought they were lizards?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.
    Hang on, I sucked up to - I mean I legitimately honoured - the PB Holy Trinity and I didn't get mine! This is an outrage!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Gallowgate said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anecdote alert (NW currently blue bellwether swing constituency)

    I wrote earlier today that I only received blue leaflets and that there was a blue Teller at my polling station this morning and that I'd seen no evidence of the reds this campaign, however I'd also only just moved into the constituency and had to register to vote after the start of the campaign.

    Thought I'd update to say just before I drove past a couple of people going from door to door with red clipboards, red rosettes and "Vote Labour" written on the back of the clipboard. So there is red activity afterall.

    Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

    Maybe the Police were voting?
    Or maybe the Fascists were stuffing the ballot boxes with Fascists votes. Thought about that, have you? Hmmmm.

    #That'sEnoughNowRik
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Everyone is spooked by 2017.

    That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.

    I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.
    Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Time_to_Leave said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Time_to_Leave said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hasn't everybody got the Exit Poll? I got my emailed to me this morning, a bit like the way Jezza gets the Queen speech.

    PB Elite members (platinum tier and above) got theirs yesterday.
    Those of us who are the real elite wrote it.
    Wrote it down.

    Diamond tier dictated it.

    Diamond tier are a right bunch of dictators.....
    I thought they were lizards?
    There's any conflict?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    Quincel said:

    I hear turnout has slowed considerably in 649 seats now darkness has fallen, but shot up in Mole Valley where very few voters ventured outside until now.

    Bravo!
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The Britain Elects poll tracker projects Labour will be down ~11pts (vs. GE2017) in the North of England, compared to 8pts in London, 7pts in the East Midlands, and 5pts in the West Midlands.

    Take a look: https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D https://t.co/xEmOOvngPj

    8 pts down in London surprises me. I expected them to be hit harder in the Midlands than London. If it is accurate it presages interesting times in seats like the 3 way marginals of Kensington and Cities.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    IshmaelZ said:

    ...and whether punters would have any way of knowing that that was happening.

    If I were a worried rich person or a hedge fund manager I would be lumping hugely on NOM or laying con maj for reasons you can deduce from the phrase "hedge fund", irrespective of my expectations of the outcome. I wonder if that is what is happening.

    Yes. Rich people tend to lay the Cons to hedge. Which means, ceteris minibus, that the value for the objective punter often lies in backing them.

    But not last time of course.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    Britain Elects

    Contrary to Twitter reports, there have been NO published constituency polls for Uxbridge South & Ruislip.

    Find the latest constituency voting intention surveys here:

    https://t.co/xTe4Cz8DZc https://t.co/DGgGsd5vxP
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Everyone is spooked by 2017.

    That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.

    I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.
    Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
    The ghost of 2017 is definitely in the air. On those polls I ought to want to put silly money on it. But I’m scared.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    Nobody knows. Seriously.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    slade said:

    Just got in after GOTV for Lib Dems in Colne Valley. We also have a local by-election in Colne Valley ward. Started in steady drizzle which got heavier and heavier. Many voters will have soggy leaflets. Lib Dems telling but no others. Indeed Labour put in a complaint that the Lib Dems were asking voters for their poll cards. Lots of Labour activity on the streets but no sign of Conservative activity ( probably on the phones). Turnout at noon was about twice the usual.

    Labour were leafletting Huddersfield station yesterday with non constituency specific flyers, but I presumed the main target to be the bits of town sitting in Colne Valley.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    Was going down for a while, now going back up again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    Just uncertainty before the result. Tory Maj should boost it, obviously a Hung parliament and it is taking a bath.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    Everyone being cautious
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    rcs1000 said:

    1. Will Jo Swinson hold her seat? It will be a big win for the LDs if the SNP's gain East Dumbartonshire.

    Because then the Lib Dems will get a better leader, you mean?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Ironically, the hype about the Red Firewall might harm Boris. If potential northern Tory converts think that millions of their number are going to vote Tory they might just not bother, saving themselves the ethical problem of engaging in class betrayal. The whole concept might turn out to be a damp squib.

    The red firewall does not take much effort it remain in place.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

    No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

    How are you calling it btw?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Also drove past a polling station in the neighbouring constituency [rock solid safe red] which had no signs of activity but a Police car parked outside the station. Hope nothing has gone wrong to justify the Police being at the polling station, never seen that before.

    The police pretty much always pop in on our local polling station whenever there's an election. Nothing sinister, just part of the "beat".
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    I've obviously pinched these figures from someone else's tweet but, if the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2017, we're looking at Con maj ~10.

    If the polls are wrong by the same amount and in the same direction as in 2015, we're looking at Con maj ~110.

    Blimey
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    #GE2019 Nowcast (12th Dec):

    CON: 344 (-1), 43.3% (+0.4)
    LAB: 223 (-1), 33.8% (+1.1)
    SNP: 45 (+2), 3.7% (-0.2)
    LDM: 14 (=), 11.7% (-1.3)

    See the graphics for full results.
    Changes w/ 6th Dec.

    Polls from 9-11 Dec.
    Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/jNVQHYMAUU

    BANK!

    If that were only possible. i'd take that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Time_to_Leave said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Everyone is spooked by 2017.

    That does seem the most likely explanation. In which case, 1.48 Con maj is a standout bet.

    I thought it would be 1.2 on the day.
    Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.
    The ghost of 2017 is definitely in the air. On those polls I ought to want to put silly money on it. But I’m scared.
    It looks huge now. It's going to look enormous in retrospect. And it pays on a majority of 1. But as you say it's scary.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Well it's now dark and wet here. I expect that voting will now not be so brisk.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    El_Capitano said:

    rcs1000 said:

    1. Will Jo Swinson hold her seat? It will be a big win for the LDs if the SNP's gain East Dumbartonshire.

    Because then the Lib Dems will get a better leader, you mean?
    What do you mean, she’s going to be Prime Minister Jo Swinson in a matter of hours!
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,269
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    They're aiming for an all-green position rather than backing a hunch.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Quincel said:

    I hear turnout has slowed considerably in 649 seats now darkness has fallen, but shot up in Mole Valley where very few voters ventured outside until now.

    Just shot up in Batcombe and Badgerside. Brisk too in Owlsdun.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    Most currency trading is automated these days so less driven by rumours than the natural volatility around an election. Of course, if Boris does look as if he cannot command a majority there will be a lot of ass covering (selling) over and above the automated trades.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    TrèsDifficile said:

    If they are, how would anyone know and so why would it affect how people bet?

    Well you can get a sense from the traffic at the polling stations, I guess. If, say, it's a stampede in London but a trickle up in South Yorkshire, that would just possibly be saying something.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    nico67 said:

    What’s up with the pound . Do currency speculators know something we don’t .

    They NEVER know anything we don't. They are the biggest herd of the lot.

    Anyone who spent EU Ref day on here will know how spectacularly wrong they got it. Even Andrew Cooper, Cameron's private pollster, had Remain 10% ahead. That day the pound surged.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,107
    kinabalu said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

    No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

    How are you calling it btw?
    Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled

    Sorry but that is not really acceptable
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Everybody got their party poppers ready for the exit poll?

    BONG...................

    "Our exit poll is predicting that Boris Johnson will remain the Prime Minister with a majority of....that can't be right? Have you checked it? Really....? Fuuuuuuuuuckkkkkkkkkkkk......."
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    No, all those polls give a bigger Tory lead than 2017

    I know. So why the bearish tint in the betting? Is it punters fighting the last war?

    You know, like you tend to do with all your "John Kerry in a skirt" monkey business?
    That's exactly what it is, just like SCons in 2015, and Con/LDs in 2015. Punters struggle to believe the polls in general elections. And that's what makes this site their money.
This discussion has been closed.