He is a compulsive liar who has been repeatedly in trouble for making shit up. He even made up that he was a doctor when he isn't.
He banned me on Twitter when I told him he was posting misleading polling figures.
Isn't everybody who isn't part of the cult banned? It a badge of honour, like being banned from Comment is Free for pointing out all the Guardian journos are privately educated under articles raging about the evils of Private schools.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
Wasn't it one of the words around the leek pound coin? Pleidiol wyf I'm gwlad, I think..
The price is now too long at 1.5 based on the information we have available. The Conservatives still may not get an overall majority but they must have upwards of an 80% chance now. So I've lumped on. I'll probably hold this bet to conclusion now.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
No Brexit Party in the Vale of Glamorgan! They are not standing because, although the compact and diminutive Alun Cairns was a Remainer, he is now part of the 'Get Brexit done' brigade and can now be found stationed in Boris' vast rectum.
Anyway who are Gwlad, Gwlad? I think I am Gwlad I didn't vote for them.
It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .
I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .
I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead a majority .
There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big in Scotland is complicated.
We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside
I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.
Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.
*makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunder
In six weeks, I haven't met a single voter who articulated anything close to that.
What are the liberal conservative remain areas. In your neck of woods it’s all very brexitty I think a good night for conservatives in south west. So you mightrightly be serene, your problems elsewhere. That sort lumpy night where Lib Dem’s can take Raab but miss Wells, Cheltenham etc. Another factor is how conservatives took south west back from Lib Dem’s in 2015, labour supporters hated libdems after coalition years, unfortunate for Lib Dem’s as many seats since nineties built up on tactical coalition, that hatred still alive and well in 2017, look at the size of labour vote in Wells for example, but my anecdotal sis that is over for this one, is that the same sense you got out there?
And the Tory election leaflets in Wells talking about Wales and labour’s running of NHS in Wales. How did that happen 🤭
The price is now too long at 1.5 based on the information we have available. The Conservatives still may not get an overall majority but they must have upwards of an 80% chance now. So I've lumped on. I'll probably hold this bet to conclusion now.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
Wasn't it one of the words around the leek pound coin? Pleidiol wyf I'm gwlad, I think..
It was. Translated it literally means country, country.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
Wasn't it one of the words around the leek pound coin? Pleidiol wyf I'm gwlad, I think..
It sounds like Ozzy Osbourne trying to speak when he is stoned
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
Wasn't it one of the words around the leek pound coin? Pleidiol wyf I'm gwlad, I think..
Will those people go to the ballot box? might be a more pertinent question than will they vote Tory...
Yes, differential turnout favouring Remainia PLUS smart tactical voting by anti "Boris" types - this is the path to the hung parliament. A narrow and rocky path, strewn with treacherous slippery areas, but a path nonetheless.
This would be my last post on Corbyn. I know he has been vilified and ostracised, so anyone supporting him would suffer the same fate. The main reason is because HE HAS BACKED THE UNDERDOG throughout his life. The underdogs, include people like me, who are marginalised and not considered part of the mainstream. Despite working and contributing into the system. Also the voiceless and the weak, who can't defend themselves. Hence he keeps polling 35-40%, despite the avalanche of bad publicity, courtesy of the right wing press. He could have taken the easy route and become extremely popular with the masses. By playing to the gallery, just like Bojo. Which is being is being anti immigration and Islamphobic. Instead, throughout his life he chose to swim against the tide. In the process making very powerful enemies and pissing off significant sections of the population. Despite all this, he still gives hope to millions across the country and has their vote. Whether he will be around in 24 hours or not is hard to say. However, the very fact that the nasty Tories have agreed to end austerity and hire more Police Officers, Nurses and build more hospitals will be his legacy. To shift focus from bs Brexit, to the real issues that matter in the long run.
This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.
No, not defeatist IMO. Getting the Cons out requires not just hung parliament but Labour staying above 250 seats. That is accepted to be at the very upper end of what is possible today.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
Wasn't it one of the words around the leek pound coin? Pleidiol wyf I'm gwlad, I think..
It was. Translated it literally means country, country.
They're quite localised now but next time there''ll be Gwlad all over.
Everything about this election tells me it should be close, even down to the two equally unsuitable clowns running their respective shows, except for the polls and LauraK telling me it is a Conservative landslide. So I am sticking with Conservative landslide.
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.
At least the begging letters have stopped - after I wrote into HQ telling them to bugger off with their e-mails, as some of us were working bloody hard in the field to get our candidates elected.
Begging letters are probably to keep members loyal, as CCHQ is taking millions elsewhere.
Well, all Tories who like me dislike this regular fuss about tactical voting and vote swapping can wipe it out at a stroke. Just move to PR (hint: nothing to do with AV). Hannan supports PR, as do a few others.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
No Brexit Party in the Vale of Glamorgan! They are not standing because, although the compact and diminutive Alun Cairns was a Remainer, he is now part of the 'Get Brexit done' brigade and can now be found stationed in Boris' vast rectum.
Anyway who are Gwlad, Gwlad? I think I am Gwlad I didn't vote for them.
Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...
It's a hung parliament folks. Convinced of it. Going on nothing but my remorseless pessimism and the fact Labour have had yet another good campaign in terms of cut-through, Tories well behind.
now 1.58. OK folks, you tell me what's going on because I am buggered if I know.
Two possibilities.
1) Someone has some very credible information suggesting that the Conservatives are underperforming.
2) No one knows anything and there's something of a blind stampede.
Given the nature of general elections, 2 seems more likely than 1. But what do I know?
Indeed. I struggle to think what people could have which would unambiguously justify such a reaction. Even if it is reflective of the reality how would people possibly know that on what is available?
I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
No Brexit Party in the Vale of Glamorgan! They are not standing because, although the compact and diminutive Alun Cairns was a Remainer, he is now part of the 'Get Brexit done' brigade and can now be found stationed in Boris' vast rectum.
Anyway who are Gwlad, Gwlad? I think I am Gwlad I didn't vote for them.
deleted - beaten to it.
I have never heard of them. I almost asked the Polling Clerk who the hell they were. A Russian plot to split the anti-Boris vote perhaps. Or would that be Vlad,Vlad?
It's a hung parliament folks. Convinced of it. Going on nothing but my remorseless pessimism and the fact Labour have had yet another good campaign in terms of cut-through, Tories well behind.
Panicking.
It depends on how much cut through the child on the floor of Leeds hospital had. too many pollsters getting 9+ leads for the Tories.
This would be my last post on Corbyn. I know he has been vilified and ostracised, so anyone supporting him would suffer the same fate. The main reason is because HE HAS BACKED THE UNDERDOG throughout his life. The underdogs, include people like me, who are marginalised and not considered part of the mainstream. Despite working and contributing into the system. Also the voiceless and the weak, who can't defend themselves. Hence he keeps polling 35-40%, despite the avalanche of bad publicity, courtesy of the right wing press. He could have taken the easy route and become extremely popular with the masses. By playing to the gallery, just like Bojo. Which is being is being anti immigration and Islamphobic. Instead, throughout his life he chose to swim against the tide. In the process making very powerful enemies and pissing off significant sections of the population. Despite all this, he still gives hope to millions across the country and has their vote. Whether he will be around in 24 hours or not is hard to say. However, the very fact that the nasty Tories have agreed to end austerity and hire more Police Officers, Nurses and build more hospitals will be his legacy. To shift focus from bs Brexit, to the real issues that matter in the long run.
The issue with blindly backing 'the underdog' (I'd argue that it's more backing whoever opposes your country) is that you end up laying wreaths on the graves of members of a terrorist organisation that massacred Israeli athletes, or invite terrorists to Parliament weeks after they tried to assassinate the PM, and successfully assassinated an MP.
I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.
I had assumed it was part of the "lets not be complacent...get your vote out" standard messaging
Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected. Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.
My son - who is young - tells me that there is a BIG interest this time among his age group. That old Con postal army will be hard to overcome though. They've posted a good score. Leader in the clubhouse.
Look at the headline in the Mail, fears really getting whipped up on zero data.
Very unpredictable game for the Mail to play. Could easily motivate Tories in the last few hours, but possibly slightly more likely to demoralise them, I think.
Can't believe Betfair is at 1.6. Have had another £500 on a Tory Majority. Hope I'm wrong and the market is responding to something real, but I'm pretty sure the information moving the market is just anecdotes and rumour. The situation now is the same as it was this morning: Polling averages have a 10% Tory lead and a Hung Parliament is possible but unlikely; more 20% than 30-40% chance.
This would be my last post on Corbyn. I know he has been vilified and ostracised, so anyone supporting him would suffer the same fate. The main reason is because HE HAS BACKED THE UNDERDOG throughout his life. The underdogs, include people like me, who are marginalised and not considered part of the mainstream. Despite working and contributing into the system. Also the voiceless and the weak, who can't defend themselves. Hence he keeps polling 35-40%, despite the avalanche of bad publicity, courtesy of the right wing press. He could have taken the easy route and become extremely popular with the masses. By playing to the gallery, just like Bojo. Which is being is being anti immigration and Islamphobic. Instead, throughout his life he chose to swim against the tide. In the process making very powerful enemies and pissing off significant sections of the population. Despite all this, he still gives hope to millions across the country and has their vote. Whether he will be around in 24 hours or not is hard to say. However, the very fact that the nasty Tories have agreed to end austerity and hire more Police Officers, Nurses and build more hospitals will be his legacy. To shift focus from bs Brexit, to the real issues that matter in the long run.
The issue with blindly backing 'the underdog' (I'd argue that it's more backing whoever opposes your country) is that you end up laying wreaths on the graves of members of a terrorist organisation that massacred Israeli athletes, or invite terrorists to Parliament weeks after they tried to assassinate the PM, and successfully assassinated an MP.
Your comment is why Tory Maj is not nailed on
People are worrying about the NHS, school funding, making ends meet.
Tory lies about Corbyn not so much when they see the Racist in the other party
Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !
Comments
Sorry for my stupidity?
Anyway who are Gwlad, Gwlad? I think I am Gwlad I didn't vote for them.
I am faithful to my nation
1.59
The underdogs, include people like me, who are marginalised and not considered part of the mainstream. Despite working and contributing into the system. Also the voiceless and the weak, who can't defend themselves. Hence he keeps polling 35-40%, despite the avalanche of bad publicity, courtesy of the right wing press.
He could have taken the easy route and become extremely popular with the masses. By playing to the gallery, just like Bojo. Which is being is being anti immigration and Islamphobic. Instead, throughout his life he chose to swim against the tide. In the process making very powerful enemies and pissing off significant sections of the population.
Despite all this, he still gives hope to millions across the country and has their vote. Whether he will be around in 24 hours or not is hard to say. However, the very fact that the nasty Tories have agreed to end austerity and hire more Police Officers, Nurses and build more hospitals will be his legacy. To shift focus from bs Brexit, to the real issues that matter in the long run.
I guess the big money is in the overall majority market.
Tory maj 62.89% chance
And even if they could do that with the GE wouldn’t they get into serious trouble if they used that to play the markets .
1) Someone has some very credible information suggesting that the Conservatives are underperforming.
2) No one knows anything and there's something of a blind stampede.
Given the nature of general elections, 2 seems more likely than 1. But what do I know?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu7vySQbgXI
CROSSOOOVVVVEEEEERRRRR by 6pm at this rate!!!
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017
For fuck sake...
Panicking.
Now is a great time to back it.
But I think we are now facing PM Corbyn.
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.
Take what you will from that.
Imagine what the betting would look like then.
1.67 a few minute ago was too short.
I think 2/3 chance of Tory Maj
If the Cons were a horse with this happening day of race I would not be touching them with a barge pole.
People are worrying about the NHS, school funding, making ends meet.
Tory lies about Corbyn not so much when they see the Racist in the other party
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !
If it is a HP there isn't a viable coalition as far as I can see.
Don't know what that means for the extension.