I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !
Never been this nervous about politics before. Think this one is huge. I'm going for a lie down in a darkened room.
Labour sources Cardiff Central : saying majority likely to match 2017.
Take what you will from that.
Why would they say that unless they wanted to mobilize the Conservative vote?
Cardiff North would be of more interest. A sea of orange from Whitchurch, through Rhiwbina to Llanishen and Cyncoed. And the LD candidate has backed voting Labour!
All political punters should be forced to look at charts showing the Betfair movements and the full PB.com threads for the previous election before betting on the next one. We do this every time, crazy rumours and whispers of differential turnout and it is accurate no more than chance. In 2016 the rumours pushed Leave from 4/1 to 10/1 during polling day!
Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !
Never been this nervous about politics before. Think this one is huge. I'm going for a lie down in a darkened room.
Don't do that! Who knows what might happen if you stop watching the screen?
now 1.58. OK folks, you tell me what's going on because I am buggered if I know.
Two possibilities.
1) Someone has some very credible information suggesting that the Conservatives are underperforming.
2) No one knows anything and there's something of a blind stampede.
Given the nature of general elections, 2 seems more likely than 1. But what do I know?
What about other polling similar to exit poll style on behalf of other media leaking out?
It would be worthless.
Exit polling is quite different to standard opinion polling. It's only as accurate as it is because John Curtice & Co. have had six successive elections to compare turnouts and voting intentions across the same polling stations.
There is no chance of any leak from the exit poll itself , unless some people doing the data collection on the ground outside polling stations are leaking then this betting drama looks plain silly .
Thsi makes it sound as if it is unfair that the tories will only get an overall majority if their lead is 6 points, but if they do get an overall majority it will still be with well under 50% of the vote share.
Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.
Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .
I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .
I live opposite a polling station & it was incredibly busy this morning despite the wind & rain,now down to a trickle of people...
Yes but often especially in the cities people will pop into the polling booth either on their way to work or on their way home.
I still think the Tories will get a comfortable majority , following betting patterns is leading to some Tory supporters in here from almost reaching for the Prozac !
Never been this nervous about politics before. Think this one is huge. I'm going for a lie down in a darkened room.
Don't do that! Who knows what might happen if you stop watching the screen?
If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
There is no chance of any leak from the exit poll itself , unless some people doing the data collection on the ground outside polling stations are leaking then this betting drama looks plain silly .
As someone who routinely overreacts to things, I endorse the message that this reaction does not make sense.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.
I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
This would be my last post on Corbyn. I know he has been vilified and ostracised, so anyone supporting him would suffer the same fate. The main reason is because HE HAS BACKED THE UNDERDOG throughout his life. The underdogs, include people like me, who are marginalised and not considered part of the mainstream. Despite working and contributing into the system. Also the voiceless and the weak, who can't defend themselves. Hence he keeps polling 35-40%, despite the avalanche of bad publicity, courtesy of the right wing press. He could have taken the easy route and become extremely popular with the masses. By playing to the gallery, just like Bojo. Which is being is being anti immigration and Islamphobic. Instead, throughout his life he chose to swim against the tide. In the process making very powerful enemies and pissing off significant sections of the population. Despite all this, he still gives hope to millions across the country and has their vote. Whether he will be around in 24 hours or not is hard to say. However, the very fact that the nasty Tories have agreed to end austerity and hire more Police Officers, Nurses and build more hospitals will be his legacy. To shift focus from bs Brexit, to the real issues that matter in the long run.
The issue with blindly backing 'the underdog' (I'd argue that it's more backing whoever opposes your country) is that you end up laying wreaths on the graves of members of a terrorist organisation that massacred Israeli athletes, or invite terrorists to Parliament weeks after they tried to assassinate the PM, and successfully assassinated an MP.
Your comment is why Tory Maj is not nailed on
People are worrying about the NHS, school funding, making ends meet.
Tory lies about Corbyn not so much when they see the Racist in the other party
Nothing I said is a lie, Corbyn's default position is to back the UK's enemies.
I don't like the Tories much, but reluctantly had to become a first time Con voter, because they'll screw up the country the least over the next 5 years.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.
Or Sir Sydney Rough-Diamond in Carry on up the Khyber.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.
So long as it isn't like Reginald Dyer at Jallianwala Bagh.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.
When the panic subsides the hubristic victory lap will begin.
Thsi makes it sound as if it is unfair that the tories will only get an overall majority if their lead is 6 points, but if they do get an overall majority it will still be with well under 50% of the vote share.
It depends on vote share. For example, a lead of 47% to 41% would probably deliver a comfortable Conservative majority. A result like Con 37% to Lab 31% would almost certainly result in a hung Parliament.
Com Res think that their poll of Con 41 to Lab 36, would give the Conservatives a majority of 6.
There is no chance of any leak from the exit poll itself , unless some people doing the data collection on the ground outside polling stations are leaking then this betting drama looks plain silly .
If people are reacting to what individual data collectors are saying about individual polling stations, then that is hardly an indication to what is happening on a national scale.
‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’
I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.
At least the begging letters have stopped - after I wrote into HQ telling them to bugger off with their e-mails, as some of us were working bloody hard in the field to get our candidates elected.
I assume a lot of people did, which was why one of them was followed up by an apology and acknowledgement that people were helping already.
I know polls have said for weeks Tories are around 40 but what if they drop below 40 and Labour stay around 32-36. That could happen entirely due to turnout.
If the Cons were a horse with this happening day of race I would not be touching them with a barge pole.
Why do you take a barge pole to the races? Is it your lucky barge pole? I had ten quid on Chummys Favourite, and tipped him live on air. And I was on snow night.
I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.
Doesn't that email get sent out a every GE.
Yep but it only takes one inexperienced person to misunderstand it and they start to move the market. Everyone else follows, not knowing what the original trigger was and thinking someone must know something.
The golden mantra should be No One Knows Anything (Except 3 people in a locked room) ... until about 15 seconds past 10 PM.
Well, my guess FWIW is that it will be a result similar to 2017 - a Hung Parliament rather than a stonking majority.
But, hey, what do I know.
Raining very heavily here. No time to discover that there is a leak in the conservatory roof .......
My opinion is that there are a lot of opinions on here and each one is worth about as much as the next.. and that's about zero
Some unkind people might suggest some of the opinions are worth less than zero, but I wouldn't want to play that game lest there be demerit points for over posting.
Time for a power nap ahead of the count. Play nice everyone and congrats to PM Boris/Jeremy in advance.
I reckon the market started moving after CCHQ sent out their "Labour turnout is High, have you voted" email as part of their GOTV operation (timed 16:34).
Somebody, somewhere thinks that this is a real emergency email instead of a standard pre-programmed one, the later being what I have assumed it is.
No idea which is right or which is wrong.
WillS.
Doesn't that email get sent out a every GE.
Yep but it only takes one inexperienced person to misunderstand it and they start to move the market. Everyone else follows, not knowing what the original trigger was and thinking someone must know something.
The golden mantra should be No One Knows Anything (Except 3 people in a locked room) ... until about 15 seconds past 10 PM.
That’s what they want us to think. I don’t believe it. Sounds unlikely.
I think a hung parliament is becoming more likely and my reason for saying it are as follows
Large youth turnout in London and possibility of IDS and Raab losing
HYUFD was far from confident today
Little if any information from the red wall and beyond which you would expect if big gains
Poor weather across most of the country and early dark evenings
Rumours of smaller postal votes being received
The pound and betting markets falling confidence
Is this the David Herdson moment of 2017
What was the final Herdson call? I missed it.
RCS is usually pretty accurate.
He’s also in the USA.
Not that that means he is wrong.
Wasn't the RCS call yesterday an 80 seat Con majority. With MOE and the MRF so close in many seats, that could also be a comfortable 100 plus plus, plus majority or a hung Parliament.
Labour will be delighted to see the rain now clearing eastwards ready for the peak time for their more core demographics to come out .
The back edge of the rain is now into west London and should have cleared through most parts by 7 pm which gives them a dry slot all the way through to 10 pm .
It might though hang on in East Anglia but that’s hardly a bastion of Labour support so won’t make much difference.
If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
What happens if you simply must but Ben Stokes is closing in on both his century and the runs to win the 5th and final test of the Ashes with the series 2/2?
I know polls have said for weeks Tories are around 40 but what if they drop below 40 and Labour stay around 32-36. That could happen entirely due to turnout.
Pretty unlikely imo - look at last election, May repeatedly shooting herself in the foot, and still got 42.4% (only marginally less than Blair got in his biggest landslide). That vote is solid imo.
Labour's hope is the squeeze on the LDs/Greens, coming out with around a 36-42, and with a bit of fortune wrt vote distribution could result in Cons on 310ish. Johnson is then stuck, possibly unable to pass the WA, looking a bit impotent and directionless, and a 2nd election might see things closer.
As I noticed. People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
The Tories if they've got any brain cells are going to say it's too close to call or nothing at all. They are not going to be swinging dicks until 9am tomorrow when the majority is concrete - or not, as the case may be.
They may have confiscated personal phones at CCHQ....
Ever get the feeling that you are in a further remake of "Day of the Body Snatchers"? Perhaps we have to face the fact that only the trashing of the economy to demonstrate that Corbynism can't work will rid us of it?
As I noticed. People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else. But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere. Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
Quite right. We need to display the spirit of Brigadier John Nicholson, at the Siege of Delhi.
So long as it isn't like Reginald Dyer at Jallianwala Bagh.
Or Colonel Nicholson at the end of Bridge Over the River Kwai when he realises he's aided and collaborated with the Fascistic & brutish enemy and betrayed his own side. I'll give it 2-3 months for the BJorg to get to that stage after a BJ landslide.
Comments
Cardiff North would be of more interest. A sea of orange from Whitchurch, through Rhiwbina to Llanishen and Cyncoed. And the LD candidate has backed voting Labour!
Back into 1.57
Looks spot on to me.
If I’m right, I’m going to get very drunk
Exit polling is quite different to standard opinion polling. It's only as accurate as it is because John Curtice & Co. have had six successive elections to compare turnouts and voting intentions across the same polling stations.
Werent you on Tory Maj at some really short odds?
Or it could be the aliens which were conducting thought probes last night.
Nothing I said is a lie, Corbyn's default position is to back the UK's enemies.
I don't like the Tories much, but reluctantly had to become a first time Con voter, because they'll screw up the country the least over the next 5 years.
RCS is usually pretty accurate.
Battersea LAB hold 1.25 on Betfair Sportsbook can be laid at 1.2 on the Exchange.
On the other hand, I still think the postal votes could still be just cancelling that out.
Moving my forecast to the lower end of 0-30, to 0-15, but as ever still too early to say.
But, hey, what do I know.
Raining very heavily here. No time to discover that there is a leak in the conservatory roof .......
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1205180908032188417
That seems pretty reasonable.
Com Res think that their poll of Con 41 to Lab 36, would give the Conservatives a majority of 6.
Not that that means he is wrong.
But I missed the one from David Herdson.
I said this a couple of days ago...
I had ten quid on Chummys Favourite, and tipped him live on air. And I was on snow night.
The golden mantra should be No One Knows Anything (Except 3 people in a locked room) ... until about 15 seconds past 10 PM.
People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
That could be Labour voters or Conservative ones though.
Time for a power nap ahead of the count. Play nice everyone and congrats to PM Boris/Jeremy in advance.
The back edge of the rain is now into west London and should have cleared through most parts by 7 pm which gives them a dry slot all the way through to 10 pm .
It might though hang on in East Anglia but that’s hardly a bastion of Labour support so won’t make much difference.
£18 million?
You don't HAVE to answer.
Pretty unlikely imo - look at last election, May repeatedly shooting herself in the foot, and still got 42.4% (only marginally less than Blair got in his biggest landslide). That vote is solid imo.
Labour's hope is the squeeze on the LDs/Greens, coming out with around a 36-42, and with a bit of fortune wrt vote distribution could result in Cons on 310ish. Johnson is then stuck, possibly unable to pass the WA, looking a bit impotent and directionless, and a 2nd election might see things closer.
They may have confiscated personal phones at CCHQ....
Which is why I was sorry to miss his call for this one - if he did one?
But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere.
Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.