Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead

1356711

Comments

  • isam said:

    Drutt said:

    Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.

    That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?

    CON under 325 you mean?
    If Con under 325 is 1.02 then that’s huge.
  • saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

    No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

    How are you calling it btw?
    Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled

    Sorry but that is not really acceptable
    I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.

    I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.

    I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
    Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
    Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.
    7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.
    Its an opinion, we all have them.
  • alb1on said:

    Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.

    The staff get distracted by the dog humping the table leg whilst Boris humps the other leg. :)
    Boris would probably look at the dog and say "well that looks a jolly jape, I'll have a go at that myself when I get home"
  • rcs1000 said:

    Here in Los Angeles, the only question I've had was "So, your election's between a clown and an anti-semite, right?"

    I hope you replied "it's between a clown and an anti-semite and a clown and an Islamophobe". (Commas discretionary)
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    IshmaelZ said:


    Wrong. Elective postal voting is a bit of Blair era gerrymandering with which no true Conservative should have any truck.

    The hurdle for postal vote eligibility should exclude all bar those who genuinely unable to attend in person.

  • kle4 said:

    Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.

    Wtf? "I really wish I could decide how to vote. Oh, wait, Boris is taking his dog to the polling station. That settles it - I'm voting for the dog!"
    Obviously such things are not designed to cause somebody to suddenly switch their view, they're part of the ongoing process of building an image or brand, or just getting more visibility.
    He is referring to all makers of bullshit products
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.

    Can you imagine if the first declaration is a Tory gain. Utter bombshell.
    It would save me a sleepless night, as there'd be no point staying up.
    Get your beauty sleep.

    We are in for a long night IMO

    Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.

    I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.

    Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.

    I was turned away.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Here in Los Angeles, the only question I've had was "So, your election's between a clown and an anti-semite, right?"

    That’s not fair. There’s also a non-entity, and a Krankie.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    No offence but it's amazing how much can be written based on nothing concrete.

    It reminds me of 1997 in Mitcham & Morden. Tory canvassers there were convinced they were going to buck the national trend and increase their slim majority. In fact they suffered an enormous defeat on a huge swing, and the Labour MP is still there today.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    kinabalu said:

    Absolutely. Has there ever been an election before where the polls averaged a 10% lead and you could get 1.48 for a majority? Staggering, but I think nobody is taking anything for granted yet.

    Well I would lump on if I wasn't already positioned that way for a slightly scary amount. Will the Cons REALLY pick up a ton of WC Labour seats though? When those people are in the ballot box will they actually go ahead and do it? Is Brexit so important to them as to risk being called class traitors by their nearest and dearest?
    Not in big cities, not at all.

    But, in smaller urban areas in the North and Midlands, the drift away from Labour has been taking place over a long time. It's rather like the way people refused to believe, pre-1997, that places like Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Birmingham Edgbaston were on the point of voting Labour, simply because they never had done before.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    isam said:

    Drutt said:

    Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.

    That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?

    CON under 325 you mean?
    No. But the numbers have refreshed on BF, and not necessarily in this punter's favour. Much more like 1.02 in each case now.
  • Andy_JS said:

    No offence but it's amazing how much can be written based on nothing concrete.

    “Nothing concrete” eh? Must be good for Labour....
  • Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605

    This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.

    Odd posting for a supposed journalist to make.... sounds more like an activist?
  • Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .

    I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
    Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .

    I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .

    There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.

    We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .

    I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
    Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.

    Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.

    *makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    ramp alert
  • Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.

    Depends how “real time”. In 2017 I needed a “bloody hell it was supposed to be a Tory majority how do I salvage my betting position” button. If you can do me one of those that would be great.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Boris taking his dog to the polling station is clever electioneering. He’s appearing all over the shop.

    Boris has always appeared all over the shop to me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    kle4 said:

    Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?

    He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjob
    Too much information.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

    No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

    How are you calling it btw?
    Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled

    Sorry but that is not really acceptable
    I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.

    I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.

    I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
    Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
    Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.
    7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.
    Its an opinion, we all have them.
    It's a fact. Not an opinion.
  • melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    From afar it looks like most of any surge of young voters there might be is happening in seats Labour would expect to win anyway based on the most recent polling.

  • It does look as if turnout could be lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.

    Still need more reports from Wales.

    You had mine from North East Wales marginals at 2pm.

    We’ve had both weather and turnout occurring, with scattered showers of brisk, slowing down later,
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    ramp alert
    Sorry, truth hurts eh
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited December 2019
    Andecdata - first geniune election in the former Peoples Republic of Bercow for many years. Looked like lots of 'ticks' already showing on the address lists.

    Put 3 down for former Tory Dorrell and 1 down for the current Tory (v reluctantly by yours truly).

    I wonder if Lib Dems will surprise on the upside now after managing expectations so well with their pants campaign?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.

    Sorry to be a bore but could you link to the s/s? ta.
  • Just voted in Pontefract, turnout, and I quote, ‘steady’.
  • Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.

    Depends how “real time”. In 2017 I needed a “bloody hell it was supposed to be a Tory majority how do I salvage my betting position” button. If you can do me one of those that would be great.
    Well at the moment it is pining Betfair every 15s. I can obviously ping it faster.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    kle4 said:

    Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?

    He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjob
    His dog?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    morning all...

    sorry if this has been asked already but is there a list of estimated declaration times?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited December 2019

    It does look as if turnout could be lower in the north so far, outside the cities. Could change later though.

    Still need more reports from Wales.

    You had mine from North East Wales marginals at 2pm.

    We’ve had both weather and turnout occurring, with scattered showers of brisk, slowing down later,
    and with that, back to you in the studio John.

    Thanks Robin. Looks wild out there ! Robin Wiggs, our Wales correspondent, on the spot in Wales there.

    In other news..

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?
  • At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.

    Sorry to be a bore but could you link to the s/s? ta.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.

    Can you imagine if the first declaration is a Tory gain. Utter bombshell.
    It would save me a sleepless night, as there'd be no point staying up.
    Get your beauty sleep.

    We are in for a long night IMO

    Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.

    I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.

    Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.

    I was turned away.
    Because they haven't identified enough Labour voters to take to the polling stations. Is all.
  • saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

    No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

    How are you calling it btw?
    Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled

    Sorry but that is not really acceptable
    I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.

    I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.

    I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
    Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
    Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.
    7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.
    Well, there's disruption on GWR services out of Paddington this evening. Could affect Thames Valley constituencies' turnout a bit (although I think a lot of us voted this morning. The polling booth was busier than I remember it at 7:00 this morning); that kind of thing is outside (apparently) anyone's control but the Almighty. And, on the evidence, he's a total b*st*rd.
  • Boris Johnson has just personally told me this

    ‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’

    I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.

  • melcf said:

    kle4 said:

    Will Boris be proposing to Carrie if he gets a landslide?

    He will probably be proposing to anyone that offers him a blowjob
    His dog?
    I am sure he has thought about trying it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Drutt said:

    isam said:

    Drutt said:

    Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.

    That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?

    CON under 325 you mean?
    No. But the numbers have refreshed on BF, and not necessarily in this punter's favour. Much more like 1.02 in each case now.
    Sorry yes.

    Could you do it at 1.07? Laying Lab maj at 16/1 ish??
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    spudgfsh said:

    morning all...

    sorry if this has been asked already but is there a list of estimated declaration times?

    That's on @FrancisUrquhart 's excellent sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=669939416

    Check out the seat tab.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .

    I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
    Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .

    I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .

    There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.

    We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .

    I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
    Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.

    Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.

    *makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
    Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunder
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,123
    edited December 2019
    The Betfair market is clearly spooked. How much of that is city people in the London bubble, who knows.
  • Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?

    That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    ramp alert
    Sorry, truth hurts eh
    You have no idea what the turnout is, nobody does, you are just guessing
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602

    At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    That was reduced slightly to 6.6% in 2015 and they won a majority of 12.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    isam said:

    Drutt said:

    Dutching your BF backing pennies between CON maj and NOM works out at 1.07.

    That has to be a good value way of effectively backing LAB under 325 (otherwise about 1.02)?

    CON under 325 you mean?
    If Con under 325 is 1.02 then that’s huge.
    If Con under 325 is 1.02.

    NOM at circa 3.0 is a bargain.

    Although IMO 3.0 is about right
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Would people be interested in real time betting numbers on the spreadsheet? And if so, which ones? I have put up Betfair Tory O/M up just as a test.

    Sorry to be a bore but could you link to the s/s? ta.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/
    tyvm
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    egg said:

    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .

    I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
    Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .

    I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .

    There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.

    We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .

    I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
    Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.

    Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.

    *makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
    Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunder
    In six weeks, I haven't met a single voter who articulated anything close to that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited December 2019

    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .

    I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
    Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .

    I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .

    There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.

    We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .

    I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
    Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.

    Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.

    *makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
    I agree the BP has made it even more difficult to work out . Are you sure it’s just popcorn ? Or is it too early to drink !
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited December 2019
    It's worth remembering that last time the Tories did better than the exit poll with the first few results to be declared from the North East which led Peter Kellner to say that maybe the Tories would get a majority after all. That came to an end when Swindon North was declared a bit later and was in line with the exit poll.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    Why?
  • egg said:

    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .

    I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
    Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .

    I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .

    There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.

    We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .

    I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
    Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.

    Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.

    *makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
    Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunder
    It was the straw that ensured I will definitely not be voting Tory for the first time in 8 GEs!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.

    Can you imagine if the first declaration is a Tory gain. Utter bombshell.
    It would save me a sleepless night, as there'd be no point staying up.
    Get your beauty sleep.

    We are in for a long night IMO

    Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.

    I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.

    Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.

    I was turned away.
    Because they haven't identified enough Labour voters to take to the polling stations. Is all.
    Must have all voted already!!
  • That spreadsheet really is awesome.
  • Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?

    That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
    Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
  • Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605

    This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.

    Odd posting for a supposed journalist to make.... sounds more like an activist?
    Owen Jones using a quote from Boris Johnson as a FACT?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    RobD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    morning all...

    sorry if this has been asked already but is there a list of estimated declaration times?

    That's on @FrancisUrquhart 's excellent sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA/edit#gid=669939416

    Check out the seat tab.
    cheers.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited December 2019

    Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.

    More importantly I’ll be tucking into a spaghetti bolognese and a pint of a lager in less than 2 hours.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Boris Johnson has just personally told me this

    ‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’

    I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.

    At least the begging letters have stopped - after I wrote into HQ telling them to bugger off with their e-mails, as some of us were working bloody hard in the field to get our candidates elected.
  • Brom said:

    At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.
    I think we can say that the Swin-gasm isn't going to materialise tonight, save for the possible Raab unseating.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.

    More importantly I’ll be tucking into a spaghetti bolognese and a pint of a lager in less than 2 hours.
    two pints and a [packet of crisps would be more effective
  • Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, you have had TWO THIRDS OF YOUR TIME TO VOTE.

    More importantly I’ll be tucking into a spaghetti bolognese and a pint of a lager in less than 2 hours.
    ..and that is something the whole nation can rally around.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Sunderland Central was Lab 45% Con 30% with the latest YouGov MRP.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Sean_F said:

    Not in big cities, not at all.

    But, in smaller urban areas in the North and Midlands, the drift away from Labour has been taking place over a long time. It's rather like the way people refused to believe, pre-1997, that places like Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Birmingham Edgbaston were on the point of voting Labour, simply because they never had done before.

    My fear is that the Midlands in particular will go blue blue blue. They went for Thatcher in a way that places like South Yorkshire and the North East did not.

    And there was that CH4 vox pop from Brum with the oiky guy saying how Boris was a "lovable buffoon" who was a "straight talker". That shook me up.

    I just don't trust them.
  • melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    saddened said:

    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.
    Working tonight but should be free by 8am tomorrow, to post the same.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oxDwxNcURTU
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    The much awaited Murali_s final seat projection for GE19 has been released and it's reasonably good news for the PB Tories. The Tories on course for a majority of 4!

    C: 327
    L: 237
    LD: 18
    SNP: 45
    OTH: 23

    Margin of error +/- 20 seats for C, L; +/- 5 seats for LD, SNP.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited December 2019

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    Straws in the wind but Tories fancy their chances in Sunderland Central (Lab majority 10k), hopefully some truth in that.

    Can you imagine if the first declaration is a Tory gain. Utter bombshell.
    It would save me a sleepless night, as there'd be no point staying up.
    Get your beauty sleep.

    We are in for a long night IMO

    Something I didnt realise until today Dennis has been in hospital for the whole campaign.

    I am back on him in the Constituency betting but DYOR.

    Too many cars today trying to help him retain the seat.

    I was turned away.
    Because they haven't identified enough Labour voters to take to the polling stations. Is all.
    Must have all voted already!!
    Keep whistiing. It's dark - and this night will be long......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunderland Central was Lab 45% Con 30% with the latest YouGov MRP.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0

    Still a major swing in fairness.
  • murali_s said:

    The much awaited Murali_s final seat projection for GE19 has been released and it's reasonably good news for the PB Tories. The Tories on course for a majority of 4!

    C: 327
    L: 237
    LD: 18
    SNP: 45
    OTH: 23

    Margin of error +/- 20 seats for C, L; +/- 5 seats for LD, SNP.

    That aligns with my guess!
  • Does anyone know if the turnout odds have moved today?
  • Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205165468044185605

    This sounds a bit defeatist. Not sure Owen Jones knows much more than the rest of us though.

    Odd posting for a supposed journalist to make.... sounds more like an activist?
    Jones is basically an activist - albeit one in the same class as Izzard.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Not in big cities, not at all.

    But, in smaller urban areas in the North and Midlands, the drift away from Labour has been taking place over a long time. It's rather like the way people refused to believe, pre-1997, that places like Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Birmingham Edgbaston were on the point of voting Labour, simply because they never had done before.

    My fear is that the Midlands in particular will go blue blue blue. They went for Thatcher in a way that places like South Yorkshire and the North East did not.

    And there was that CH4 vox pop from Brum with the oiky guy saying how Boris was a "lovable buffoon" who was a "straight talker". That shook me up.

    I just don't trust them.
    You don't trust who? The Tories or West MIdlands voters?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    melcf said:

    saddened said:

    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.
    Working tonight but should be free by 8am tomorrow, to post the same.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oxDwxNcURTU
    Giving us some posts on your own time, huh? Very generous.

    Or are you one of those 400 employees Labour let go?
  • Brom said:

    At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.
    I think we can say that the Swin-gasm isn't going to materialise tonight, save for the possible Raab unseating.
    I don't think there will be too many people saddened by his defenestration if it happens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Animal_pb said:

    saddened said:

    kinabalu said:

    No one can know. At this moment we could have 70% voting Labour or 70% voting Tory and no one would have a clue. We just have to wait until 10pm. These market movements ae not driven by any inside knowledge.

    No. Although I've heard nasty stories from no less a source than the BBC that the postals are especially good for the Tories. Wonder what happens if they lose the proper vote but win just purely because of people doing it early by mail? Do we get to know the split even?

    How are you calling it btw?
    Excuse me, and with respect what on earth is this proper vote. A postal vote for us oldies is a proper vote, and for many others who cannot get to the polls who may be disabled

    Sorry but that is not really acceptable
    I dont agree with the previous poster but acceptable is the wrong word imo. They are allowed their thoughts on what is and isnt a proper vote.

    I would prefer voting at weekends, voting for residents who have been here 5+ years but dont happen to have the right flavour passport, but others dont want that.

    I fail to see why people shouldnt be able to express their disdain for certain categories of voting, when in reality everyone has some view on who should be able to vote and how.
    Maybe but many would be disenfranchised if they could not postal vote
    Many are disenfranchised by no weekend voting, or by not having the right flavour passport.
    7 AM - 10 PM, nobody is disenfranchised. If you can't find 30 mins to vote, you don't want to.
    Well, there's disruption on GWR services out of Paddington this evening. Could affect Thames Valley constituencies' turnout a bit (although I think a lot of us voted this morning. The polling booth was busier than I remember it at 7:00 this morning); that kind of thing is outside (apparently) anyone's control but the Almighty. And, on the evidence, he's a total b*st*rd.
    Train disruption in this country isn't exactly an unusual occurrence.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    I am done for the day.

    quite encouraging despite torrential drizzle and floods of less than Biblical proportions.

    See you guys at 9.55pm
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    alb1on said:

    Good to know that Americans understand the choice we have. They do it so much better by combining both features in one President. :D

    This deserves more than a 'like' (although I've done one).

    It deserves an overt and painstakingly typed out GREAT POST :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    You've suddenly become less credulous? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Brom said:

    At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    Main reason being Lib Dems were polling double what they are now.
    I think we can say that the Swin-gasm isn't going to materialise tonight, save for the possible Raab unseating.
    I don't think there will be too many people saddened by his defenestration if it happens.
    Well there's Boris, Mrs Raab and er...
  • Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?

    That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
    Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
    that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    He is a compulsive liar who has been repeatedly in trouble for making shit up. He even made up that he was a doctor when he isn't.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Its pretty important for Labour to have this rain clearing.

    Historically their supporters tend to come out in bigger numbers from around 7 to 10 pm . It’s this period last time according to those on the 2017 exit poll where Mays majority started slipping away .

    I remember Michael Thrasher saying this when he was talking about the changes they saw during the day .

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Con maj creeping ever upwards on the markets.
  • Boris Johnson has just personally told me this

    ‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’

    I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.
    RobD said:

    You've suddenly become less credulous? ;)
    Fewer, not less.

    Bloody students.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Boris Johnson has just personally told me this

    ‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’

    I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.

    If get Brexit and done never again appear in a sentence or indeed anywhere in that order I will be very happy.

    Just off to vote now.
  • Just voted near Cowbridge. I pondered and pondered. Who are Gwlad, Gwlad ( auto correct didn't like them either). Their candidate lived in Bexleyheath anyway. Only other choices were the Greens, Cairns and the National Socialists. Did I get the last bit right?

    That last one is the new name for the Brexit Party
    Gwlad Gwald describe themselves as a Welsh nationalist centre right pro-Brexit Party.
    that party name sounds like Biggus Dickus announcing how pweased he is!
    I had assumed they were blood and soil nationalists when I saw the name. I suspect they are. And yet the candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan lives in Bexleyheath.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    nico67 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s strange as a Labour supporter I’ve already accepted a Tory majority and so aren’t stressed at all ! It seems the Tory supporters in here seem convinced that it might be a 2017 repeat .

    I even wrote a piece on how this isn't 2017 which I'm starting to get the willies about !
    Very funny ! As much as I’d like it to be a 2017 repeat I can’t see it happening .

    I think I can understand though how some Tory supporters are suffering an emotional rollercoaster . I think the problem is what sort of lead guarantees a majority .

    There might be more tactical voting this time , and even with a big lead the situation in Scotland is complicated.

    We don’t really know about turnout barring these reports from people at some of the polling stations , I suspect though it will be higher in Remain areas but because the Tories have managed to keep onside many of their Remainers it might not be so damaging .

    I think it’s a bit more unpredictable overall with loads of different dynamics in play .
    Brexit Party not standing in 2017 Tory won seats certainly helps the Tories not go backwards - but having asymmetric swing between the two sets of seats really does make it tricky. The extent of the swing in those marginals the Tories must gain is perhaps obscured. 10% lead should be enough. 5% - not so much.

    Anyway, I could be any serener if I was a Williams sister.

    *makes a grab for another bag of compulsively eaten popcorn, despite hating the stuff.....*
    Does it help them? Look at rabbs worries with his majority, what swallowing brexit party may have done is make Boris Tories look like populist front more than traditional conservative, in some areas good look, in liberal conservative remain areas strategic blunder
    In six weeks, I haven't met a single voter who articulated anything close to that.
    What are the liberal conservative remain areas. In your neck of woods it’s all very brexitty
    I think a good night for conservatives in south west. So you mightrightly be serene, your problems elsewhere.
    That sort lumpy night where Lib Dem’s can take Raab but miss Wells, Cheltenham etc.
    Another factor is how conservatives took south west back from Lib Dem’s in 2015, labour supporters hated libdems after coalition years, unfortunate for Lib Dem’s as many seats since nineties built up on tactical coalition, that hatred still alive and well in 2017, look at the size of labour vote in Wells for example, but my anecdotal sis that is over for this one, is that the same sense you got out there?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Somebody posted the possible outcomes for the first 4 or 5 seats likely to declare tonight and what they might mean for the overall results.

    I thought i'd saved it but haven't.

    Can anybody give me a refresher please?
  • Fenster said:

    He is a compulsive liar who has been repeatedly in trouble for making shit up. He even made up that he was a doctor when he isn't.
    He banned me on Twitter when I told him he was posting misleading polling figures.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    melcf said:

    saddened said:

    melcf said:

    Seems like Labour has managed a higher or more enthusiastic turnout, than expected.
    Wouldn't be suprised, if this last minute surge, brings Labour in the 36-39% range.

    Been good reading your posts. Shame we won't be seeing you again after 10PM.
    Working tonight but should be free by 8am tomorrow, to post the same.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oxDwxNcURTU
    We'll see won't we.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    The price is now too long at 1.5 based on the information we have available. The Conservatives still may not get an overall majority but they must have upwards of an 80% chance now. So I've lumped on. I'll probably hold this bet to conclusion now.

    Yes, it should be 1.2 to 1.25.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    RobD said:

    You've suddenly become less credulous? ;)
    Horse .... the pills they be working!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Boris Johnson has just personally told me this

    ‘our teams on the ground are reporting a high Labour turnout. So have you voted yet? Have your friends and family?’

    I got the same email. Must admit, I’m looking forward to the Cabinet getting back to running the country instead of writing emails to me twice a day.
    RobD said:

    You've suddenly become less credulous? ;)
    Fewer, not less.

    Bloody students.
    Fewer credulous?
  • At GE2010 Cameron's Tories had a 7.2% national vote share lead and were 20 seats short of a majority.

    At GE2015, Cameron's Tories were 6.5% ahead on the national share of the vote and got a working majority of 12 seats.
This discussion has been closed.