My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.
It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.
I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.
OK, thanks. I will make a large sum if my call is right. Or yours for that matter. Yet I would prefer to see a shock hung parliament and lose. Which got me thinking - how big would a betting profit have to be to make me neutral. Answer? £25,000. That's how much I'd pay, in other words, to see "Boris" out. For Trump it's bigger. Maybe double that. Crazy, huh.
Shyness comes mainly from being in opposition to those around you (these days particularly if they are lefty as they are tending to be somewhat judgemental) or a degree of shame if you think you are acting slightly immorally (could apply to Waspi ex-Tories) or if you think the questioner will disapprove.
GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch
Greetings from the Land of the Fish! Voting brisk, mid-brisk and unbrisk here. Went to local polling station (junior school at 7.30am - they'd earlier had to improvise with an alfresco booth and box system because the caretaker slept and didn't get there to open up til 7.10am!! My local guesses - Conservative gains in Great Grimsby, |Scunthorpe, Lincoln and (possibly) Hull West and Hessle but - like everyone else - I have no idea whats going to happen ....
I suspect the same.
Here in Yellow are the areas that the Conservatives will probably see a swing against them in England and Wales, and in Blue a swing against Labour:
I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Are you still wearing the green jumper?
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?
How would it sound if they said "OK it's probably foregone conclusion in this constituency, but please wrap up warm, put your wellies on and come out into the driving rain for the evening"?
GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch
The hedge funds chestnut again....we heard that one on the remain night, when in reality no-one knew what the fuck was going on....
Just come on here to see everyone looking at tick by tick changes in the betting markets.
Surely we know by now, and are all richer as a result, that the betting markets don't know anything more than we do. In fact as we saw and benefited from on EUref day, they know substantially less.
My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.
It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.
I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.
OK, thanks. I will make a large sum if my call is right. Or yours for that matter. Yet I would prefer to see a shock hung parliament and lose. Which got me thinking - how big would a betting profit have to be to make me neutral. Answer? £25,000. That's how much I'd pay, in other words, to see "Boris" out. For Trump it's bigger. Maybe double that. Crazy, huh.
I`ve been predicting 10 - 20 maj all week, I`ll stick with that
GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch
If the Hedge Funds are doing an exit poll in the heart of London like in 2016, they will be massively out.
Can someone please explain in words of one syllable why better has swung massively onto NoM today?
There isn’t any proper news, and so people turn to social media. Which is awash with posts from London showing people queuing to make Labour’s safe seats even safer.
I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
GBP/USD dropping all day and getting worse in last couple hours -- the hedge funds will have had info since 2pm and getting more confidence in their data by the hour
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch
If the Hedge Funds are doing an exit poll in the heart of London like in 2016, they will be massively out.
They’ll be out again in force on Primrose Hill, waiting for Byronic to stroll by.
I would say if hedge funds have done any exit polls they might wait until say 8pm. The latter they leave it the more accurate but they only need them before 10pm really.
The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
I would say if hedge funds have done any exit polls they might wait until say 8pm. The latter they leave it the more accurate but they only need them before 10pm really.
If they wanted to make serious money they would force the market out to what wasn’t the true result. Then reel in when the opposite happens.
We’ve all seen Trading Places and frozen concentrated orange juice right?
I would say if hedge funds have done any exit polls they might wait until say 8pm. The latter they leave it the more accurate but they only need them before 10pm really.
The hedge fund thing is a myth....
Tory internal polling isn 2017 was reassuring May she was in line for a comfortable majority.....
No one trusts the polls, but no one either thinks Corbyn could ever be PM
The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Are you still wearing the green jumper?
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?
No, I couldn’t risk strangers hanging tinsel and baubles on me.
One thing that sometimes people forget is that some polling stations cover a few hundred people (or less) and others a few thousand.
Some polling stations look busy just because there are lots of people registered there. Others could have 100% turnout but still just one voter every ten minutes.
The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
A lot of effort has been put in by oppo parties. Could be at the expense of several seats elsewhere. If they lose badly they are hoping to have a least 1 thing to cheer about (IDS could be 2)
The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
One can only hope
Surprise LD gains in the South as I said a few days ago.
Imagine somehow the LDs do an SNP 2015 and win 20-30 seats.
I have an early result, from my son's year 6 class. Greens 5, Lib Dems 6, Brexit 0, Tories 0, Labour 20. Looks like Labour can expect a good result in about seven years...
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
The thing I don’t get is why Raab should be uniquely in trouble in Esher and Walton. Yes there might be some personal factors, yes there might be a reasonable vote to squeeze if all opponents get behind the right candidate. But still... if he’s in trouble surely there must be some other seats flying completely under the radar which should be at risk?
A lot of effort has been put in by oppo parties. Could be at the expense of several seats elsewhere. If they lose badly they are hoping to have a least 1 thing to cheer about (IDS could be 2)
Maybe it is because he is f...ing useless and an arrogant individual?
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
What if the Leavers are coming out in droves, just to make sure we Brexit?
Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...
Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LD
Shameful
What did labour ever offer the lib dems to ensure Johnson couldnt win.... nothing so fuck off with your ridiculous views
I tend to agree with that comment. Until we have PR, tactical voting is unavoidable. Labour though is always incredibly reluctant to come to arrangements with other parties. It clearly expects them to stand down, never the reverse. I think Labour is standing in for instance Abingdon, Cheltenham, Brighton Pavilion, St Albans, Guildford. Most of these are no-hope Labour seats.
But we only get a final say on a WA - which Lab says it wants - if Lab, LD, SNP, PC, SDLP, Green have >320 seats.
Don’t be silly. They don’t even support the centrist candidates in their own party.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
I have an early result, from my son's year 6 class. Greens 5, Lib Dems 6, Brexit 0, Tories 0, Labour 20. Looks like Labour can expect a good result in about seven years...
If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
What happens if you simply must but Ben Stokes is closing in on both his century and the runs to win the 5th and final test of the Ashes with the series 2/2?
“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
Key Brexit Party seat, originally. Profile of the voters ?
Just logged on for the first in 4 hours and Betfair says 1.59.
Quite bizarre Andy_JS Have you got some spreadsheet ready for tonight when you can make us all a shedload of cash
Not really, except comparing the results to the YouGov MRP. If the first 20 or 30 results are in line with it, I think that means it's going to be correct overall.
FrancisUrquhart has an interesting spreadsheet this time.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
Your candidate even asked people not to vote for him yesterday? Or have i got wrong Constituency?
I have an early result, from my son's year 6 class. Greens 5, Lib Dems 6, Brexit 0, Tories 0, Labour 20. Looks like Labour can expect a good result in about seven years...
Prospects for rejoin winning the next referendum also look quite good.
If I’m watching England bat live my feet mustn’t touch the floor. Resting on a drinks bottle or something is ok but never the floor. Whenever I need a wee I fear for the total.
What happens if you simply must but Ben Stokes is closing in on both his century and the runs to win the 5th and final test of the Ashes with the series 2/2?
You don't HAVE to answer.
That’s what the drinks bottle is for.....
Funnily enough, as I get older England are batting worse in Tests.....
Labour reportedly starting to pull activists out of Chingford and Woodford Green and send them to Barnet
How you feeling about Chingford? TCTC?
Tory vote coming out but will keep going until 9pm, some first time Tory voters, a few thumbs up and stop Corbyn won't you, Momentum out earlier but disorganised
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
Walsall South is 124 on the Tory target list, though a very heavy leave seat.
It could be a question of whether a few losses in commuter Remainia are sufficient to offset some Northern gains.
Tories confident of making gains from Labour in the Midlands. They are reporting positive news for them against Ruth Smeeth in Stoke North and Valerie Vaz in Walsall South
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
If it is the unabridged version, then yes. On the other hand I tend to only buy audiobooks of books I particularly like. I lose concentration listening to them (or use them to drop off to sleep) and it is much harder to go back to bits you missed than with the printed page.
The person who invents the device that registers when you drop off to sleep while listening to one of those will make a few Bob. If any of you now do, please sort me out for a % for thinking of it. Ta!
“Personally, for me, it’s very clear cut. Jeremy Corbyn is a man of hope, a man of justice, a man of equality. And the other guy is a f***ing Prick” - Stormzy
Spot on. Corbyn hopes to resolve the Jewish question, it's what they deserve, and they are all going to get the same treatment. He is right about Johnson, too.
I’ve been involved in elections since 1983 and have never ever know what was going on anywhere than in the patch that my committee room covered and that was open to interpretation. I doubt if anyone really knows what’s happening and all these stories are complete and utter bollocks. They help pass the time away but get real nobody really knows
Massive turnout here in Stockton South. Have just gone through the Thornaby polling stations data and it's off the chart for even a general election. Only comparable was the referendum
What if the Leavers are coming out in droves, just to make sure we Brexit?
Then the youthquake means nothing
It's certainly possible. And Labour got a thumping in May - I know, I stood in a comfortably held seat and got demolished. So would be a rapid turnaround to have Labour winning it. However, the leave vote is concentrated in certain areas. This is across the town...
Have also heard from reliable friend in Mirfield (Dewsbury). Turnout there also very high according to staff.
As the day goes on, some of these tighter northern reports seem to be coming in, after the huge London and University turnout reports. May still all be incredibly hard to call.
Still nothing about any tight races in Wales that I've heard, though - anyone got anything there ?
Comments
Nicola is well known in the area - a perceived risk to the Lib Dems (only 8k majority in a very Remainer area)
Why did Swinson launch the LD campaign in a Lab marginal walking next to her anti Gay Candidate
Because Swinson is stupid
This could be tighter than expected -- on east coast it has been torrential rain since before lunch
Here in Yellow are the areas that the Conservatives will probably see a swing against them in England and Wales, and in Blue a swing against Labour:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_Referendum_Results_by_Constituency.svg
Why am I asking someone I only know online what they are wearing?
The hedge funds chestnut again....we heard that one on the remain night, when in reality no-one knew what the fuck was going on....
Surely we know by now, and are all richer as a result, that the betting markets don't know anything more than we do. In fact as we saw and benefited from on EUref day, they know substantially less.
Have you got some spreadsheet ready for tonight when you can make us all a shedload of cash
Me thinks they’re going to hold on in most but it’s going to be incredibly close. I suspect the next few hours will be key.
Also the Tories look very shaky in some of these Southern Remainy seats, but may still have the help of postal votes on their side from elsewhere.
We’ve all seen Trading Places and frozen concentrated orange juice right?
Tory internal polling isn 2017 was reassuring May she was in line for a comfortable majority.....
No one trusts the polls, but no one either thinks Corbyn could ever be PM
Some polling stations look busy just because there are lots of people registered there. Others could have 100% turnout but still just one voter every ten minutes.
Imagine somehow the LDs do an SNP 2015 and win 20-30 seats.
Teller said voting had been quite brisk through the day but nothing special.
So not all of London is youthquaking
Then the youthquake means nothing
They don’t even support the centrist candidates in their own party.
But Dominic Raab is facing a massive fight in Esher. One Tory source puts it at 50-50
From Alex Wickham
It's a grand tradition on here.
This is what happened in 2017:
The swing was 0 at around the 62% Leave area.
FrancisUrquhart has an interesting spreadsheet this time.
Bit like most of our posts.
Certain demographics tend to vote more at certain times though .
The fact that most of the rain has cleared away by 7pm will be a relief for Labour .
And at £50 on 2.48 on Conservatives 340 seats or more
Let's see how this plays out!
If any of you now do, please sort me out for a % for thinking of it. Ta!
Have also heard from reliable friend in Mirfield (Dewsbury). Turnout there also very high according to staff.
Now playing A live version of Billy Bragg's New England...
Come on....fuck the Tories.....
Still nothing about any tight races in Wales that I've heard, though - anyone got anything there ?