As I noticed. People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else. But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere. Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
I am sure PB Tories will have an opportunity to switch from blind panic back to smug triumphalism in a few hours. I always imagine that PB Tories think of themselves as heirs to their imperial forebears, maintaining their stiff upper lips while the lesser races are consumed by their emotions, calmly putting down a Pashtun uprising or relieving Mafeking. On present form they are more Corporal Jones than General Gordon. Show some backbone, PB Tories. Playing fields of Eton! Your man has this!
PB Tories panicking is one of the two default modes.
As I noticed. People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else. But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere. Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
Low turnout in marginals in the north means what? Voters would rather stay at home than vote Tory?
Anecdotally I have quite a few (4) friends who are at university but resident in Mr Raab's patch. All four of them requested postal votes and followed through with voting, of the 3 that I knew in 2017, none did so and they all voted at university instead. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very significant swing against him.
As I noticed. People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else. But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere. Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
Low turnout in marginals in the north means what? Voters would rather stay at home than vote Tory?
Or the reverse, Labour voters staying home. No one knows for sure.
We know from the turnout reports that Labour will probably do better than expected in London and in heavy student areas. But they hold most of those seats anyway.
Turnout in Labour Leave areas was down in the GE in 2017 and at the 2019 Euro elections and I’d expect to see the same again.
As for what’s being suggested from Esher , I’d be shocked if Raab lost his seat . I’d expect a much lower majority for him but if the Tories lose Esher I would be stunned .
Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.
Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.
And who does?
Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
I think shy Labour is more likely
Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.
Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.
And who does?
Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
I think shy Labour is more likely
Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.
Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.
And who does?
Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
I think shy Labour is more likely
Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
To be fair, how would you know if you had?
You wouldn’t have just been seeing queues in Brixton. There would have been a deluge of corbynista propaganda all over the country with them all shouting about it.
I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.
You?
You've been very consistently predicting that.
My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.
It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.
I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.
I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
Reading through some of the recent comments, honestly, if I were a Tory I’d be ashamed of myself today. To be fair, I would on any other day, but particularly so today. Flaky or what?
Has PB got no one on the ground in the Red Wall?! The dearth of information is eerie.
Who doesn’t use twitter and Facebook to brag about queues and how they’ve voted.
And who does?
Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
I think shy Labour is more likely
Who’s ever met a shy Labour person? If anything was happening outside of London then we would be hearing nothing other than what we’re seeing in London. But we’re not. Why’s that?
I sent you the video of the Peterborough voters the other day. They’d say don’t know but they’d choose Labour over Tory
I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
I expect the biggest lies in 2016 weren't on the side of the bus.
Update from Plymouth. Quite a lot of people out and about near the University around 4 and got lost and drove past a polling station On Mount St and there was a queue to the gate approx 30 people and a steady stream of people heading towards the polling station.
There were also some huge Vote Labour signs near the University, and an excellent Boris Jog on homemade sign nearby.
I have noticed both in North and South Devon that a lot of the Tory signs have been vandalised or graffitied.
Back near Bristol now and weather has improved through the day between the two cities.
Hmm, I think we might see a much higher swing towards Labour in places where they are advancing and much higher swings towards the Conservatives in places where they are advancing.
Harry Cole says Tories confident in Kensington, but not in Esher...
Kensington Tory Gain thanks to Swinson standing a high profile Tory homophobe there as a LD
Shameful
What did labour ever offer the lib dems to ensure Johnson couldnt win.... nothing so fuck off with your ridiculous views
I tend to agree with that comment. Until we have PR, tactical voting is unavoidable. Labour though is always incredibly reluctant to come to arrangements with other parties. It clearly expects them to stand down, never the reverse. I think Labour is standing in for instance Abingdon, Cheltenham, Brighton Pavilion, St Albans, Guildford. Most of these are no-hope Labour seats.
But we only get a final say on a WA - which Lab says it wants - if Lab, LD, SNP, PC, SDLP, Green have >320 seats.
Anecdotally I have quite a few (4) friends who are at university but resident in Mr Raab's patch. All four of them requested postal votes and followed through with voting, of the 3 that I knew in 2017, none did so and they all voted at university instead. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very significant swing against him.
Broxtowe update: It's raining, my polling station was just as busy as last time. One dude commented he didn't realise the local candidates names would be on the paper.
As I noticed. People usually like to report increases in turnout not decreases.
Beyond the M25 silence, unless you live an a heavy student area.
I translate it as: turnout higher where Corbyn is popular, lower where he is not.
We’ve heard little from the Tories too though. That to me suggests it’s very close.
Basically Corbyn is getting his Student, London vote out, but no one else. But the Conservatives might not get their vote out anywhere. Very low enthusiasm.
You could see both the Conservative and Labour vote crash towards abstaintion outside of London.
Lower turnout than last time could be the only sure bet.
Low turnout in marginals in the north means what? Voters would rather stay at home than vote Tory?
Just went to vote in an incredibly safe Tory seat. For the first time ever here I had to actually queue, with 5 people in front of me.
The polling clerk has given me a new word to describe turnout as well. It's apparently been "mad" and like this all day.
Anecdotes on the profile of voters ?
Mostly seemed to be young-ish or middle aged, which makes sense given the time of day. This is a polling station in a small village on the edge of tow, so high proportion of elderly voters, with a lot of commuters.
My anecdote from the heart of London. I walked past a couple of Westminster polling stations at lunchtime and there was absolutely no one queuing at either.
Tories bed wetting Labour silent (but they may be using their time more usefully than on here) Lib Dems have come to terms with whatever the outcome is but also seem to using their time more productively.
What will be will be be generous in victory and defeat we all have to start again tomorrow.
If it is the unabridged version, then yes. On the other hand I tend to only buy audiobooks of books I particularly like. I lose concentration listening to them (or use them to drop off to sleep) and it is much harder to go back to bits you missed than with the printed page.
I shit you not. I'm in the canteen picking up stuff to go and two of the serving staff were discussing the election behind a partition. The convo segued onto the EURef, and one of them was insistent that the EU had passed a law to abolish the Royal Family in 2022. I don't know what to say, I really don't. Lord God Above, how can the world hold such bollocks?
I expect the biggest lies in 2016 weren't on the side of the bus.
I think that's true. We are in a little PB bubble. I don't know why people voted Leave, other than what they tell me, the Ashcroft surveys, Goodwin's papers, and the other guys papers (I forget their names). I had heard the pink lightbulb motive (somebody voted to Leave because you can't get pink lightbulbs no more, allegedly) but all the thousands of little micromotives elude me. It's always disconcerting when you realise the world in your head is different to other people's.
If it is the unabridged version, then yes. On the other hand I tend to only buy audiobooks of books I particularly like. I lose concentration listening to them (or use them to drop off to sleep) and it is much harder to go back to bits you missed than with the printed page.
Surely that poll points to a HUNG PARLIAMENT?? 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
Greetings from the Land of the Fish! Voting brisk, mid-brisk and unbrisk here. Went to local polling station (junior school at 7.30am - they'd earlier had to improvise with an alfresco booth and box system because the caretaker slept and didn't get there to open up til 7.10am!! My local guesses - Conservative gains in Great Grimsby, |Scunthorpe, Lincoln and (possibly) Hull West and Hessle but - like everyone else - I have no idea whats going to happen ....
I’m heading to vote in 45 minutes or so. The red suit may deter any coded information about voting speed being given. But I shall do my best to get that vital information.
Comments
Remember: absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence.
As much stubborness now, though, as anything else. The vibes are for much closer.
You?
Would that account have sent the opposite message the Tories were very confident?
No one knows for sure.
We know from the turnout reports that Labour will probably do better than expected in London and in heavy student areas.
But they hold most of those seats anyway.
As for what’s being suggested from Esher , I’d be shocked if Raab lost his seat . I’d expect a much lower majority for him but if the Tories lose Esher I would be stunned .
And who does?
Then match the demographics. Tory voters don’t shout about it in public.
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1204854735095914496
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1205188821857558529
Shameful
Steve Fisher Oxford Uni who has a good record of analysis & forecasting.
Con majority 40
If 2017 style polling error, Con lead 4 points then Con majority 10 seats
I can't remember his forecast.
If HY isn’t confident, surely all is lost, lost....
But they didn’t. And haven’t.
And more importantly, the nation would lose a top top political talent.
My prediction is 353/220/13/40 so I think that's a 54 majority.
It's way above my original betting position (HP), so I'll not be making vast amounts of cash.
I have put a fiver on Cons 370+ at 9/1 today, and a few other saviour bets to ease the pain of an exceptional night for 'statesman' who hid in a fridge.
The polling clerk has given me a new word to describe turnout as well. It's apparently been "mad" and like this all day.
https://twitter.com/SebastianMurdoc/status/1205187398797279235
The far right nearly falls out with each other as much as the far left.
There were also some huge Vote Labour signs near the University, and an excellent Boris Jog on homemade sign nearby.
I have noticed both in North and South Devon that a lot of the Tory signs have been vandalised or graffitied.
Back near Bristol now and weather has improved through the day between the two cities.
Swindon South vs Sunderland Central
But we only get a final say on a WA - which Lab says it wants - if Lab, LD, SNP, PC, SDLP, Green have >320 seats.
Your guy (odious person as he is) is going to remain PM (sadly).
Even the Murali_s projection gives the Tories a majority of 4.
> Nip and tuck between the Tories and Lib Dems in Cities of London & Westminster.
> Lib Dems feeling depressed RE Finchley and Kensington, hopeful RE Esher & Walton.
> Tory vote holding up well in Scotland (in line with polling).
#GE2019
https://t.co/9G6GjDxmqr
Built on instinct. It’s slipping away from them.
Tories bed wetting
Labour silent (but they may be using their time more usefully than on here)
Lib Dems have come to terms with whatever the outcome is but also seem to using their time more productively.
What will be will be be generous in victory and defeat we all have to start again tomorrow.
Means Stephen Hammond survives!