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What Tories appear to be struggling with is that voters don’t actually like Bozo, and he isn’t the good campaigner he was cracked up to be. He is afloat simply because voters dislike Corbyn more.

WhisperingOracle said:

Hmm - Grieve may only be about 10% behind now in Beaconfield, according to this. That may be the reason for the strange Tory hustings cancellation mentioned in the Indy.

He also thinks Raab's in trouble.

https://twitter.com/paulhilder/status/1204445438071517184

I think Grieve will do it. Non-Tories will know it will piss off Boris; Tories will know Grieve's an ardent Tory but a free-thinking one who'll bolster the constituency's profile. Win win for him.

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

Save this post.

Where does all this confidence come from though?

The California Sun?!

From the fact the regional crossroads look absolutely dire for Labour.

Like really really bad.

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

speedy2 said:

The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.

They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.

Bolsover Tory Gain

Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???

I live in the constituency (derby south) and labour have actually tried to canvass my house (the first time in the 17 years I've lived in it). I think they're worried but I expect Beckett to hold on (sadly this mess is all her fault).

Byronic said:

Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety

24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.

Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.

I need heroin.

I don't know if this will calm you, but...

Before things get that bad, there's quite a big window where Boris remains trapped in No 10, but tragically impotent. If the DUP say "a plague on both your houses" (which seems pretty likely) on matters of confidence, then Jez has got to be doing a lot better to get close to assembling a coalition.

A PM who is good at this sort of thing- a Wilson or a Major- can make a minority government work for a bit. It won't be able to solve Brexit, natch, but given that we still don't have any collective feel for what we want a Brexit solution to look like, that might be for the best.

The big problem is that running a minority government needs guile, which isn't top of the list of Boris Johnson's traits. Even a majority of 30 might be pushing it. Given the agenda of the new parliament, I'd be continually wondering if he'd blow up his majority in a fit of stupidity. If the majority falls below 20, it might be a question of when he blows up his majority.

Wonder what the range is for BoJo to i) stay in No 10 and ii) be confident of getting whatever he wants through? Looks like we're heading for something between those points anyway.

kle4 said:

Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!

Although I don't like Boris's New Model Wehrmacht, I will be sad if @Tissue_Price does not make it. Or at least until he gets assimilated...

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

Given all that, which I largely agree with, it’s pretty clear Johnson inspires a level of disgust which causes many to overlook what you observe.

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Byronic said:

Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety

24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.

Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.

I need heroin.

I would not wish to share a trench with you.

I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.

I think the concern Byronic has is that Boris’s are also starting to circle the urinal in the same gents.

They are not good, but they are not in the same league as Corbyn's.

spudgfsh said:

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

speedy2 said:

The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.

They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.

Bolsover Tory Gain

Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???

I live in the constituency (derby south) and labour have actually tried to canvass my house (the first time in the 17 years I've lived in it). I think they're worried but I expect Beckett to hold on (sadly this mess is all her fault).

Yes likely but by only 2,000. If that is the case then LAB have one seat in the Midlands excl Birm and Leic

Stuartinromford said:

Byronic said:

Fuck. So MRP is not gonna relieve the anxiety

24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.

Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.

I need heroin.

I don't know if this will calm you, but...

Before things get that bad, there's quite a big window where Boris remains trapped in No 10, but tragically impotent. If the DUP say "a plague on both your houses" (which seems pretty likely) on matters of confidence, then Jez has got to be doing a lot better to get close to assembling a coalition.

A PM who is good at this sort of thing- a Wilson or a Major- can make a minority government work for a bit. It won't be able to solve Brexit, natch, but given that we still don't have any collective feel for what we want a Brexit solution to look like, that might be for the best.

The big problem is that running a minority government needs guile, which isn't top of the list of Boris Johnson's traits. Even a majority of 30 might be pushing it. Given the agenda of the new parliament, I'd be continually wondering if he'd blow up his majority in a fit of stupidity. If the majority falls below 20, it might be a question of when he blows up his majority.

Wonder what the range is for BoJo to i) stay in No 10 and ii) be confident of getting whatever he wants through? Looks like we're heading for something between those points anyway.

Bozo is like HY - he will tell everyone who doesn’t agree with him to go away - then wonder where they went.

This is turning into nightmare situation. Same sort of parliament we have now, so more silly buggery for years, Corbynonomics cemented in place as the true believers will think one more heave (and they will get it next time because Brexit won't be sorted and global recession is coming) and the Lib Dems nowhere.

Bedford Tory Gain 41% to 40% LD 10%

PrinceofTaranto said:

rcs1000 said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.

They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.

Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.

I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.

That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.

They only need to get 11% to reach a 50% jump in votes. Don't forget they only got 7.4% in 2017. Now, it's possible they fall short of that, but have there been any polls (yet!) with them on 10%?

Of the LDs current seats, the three Leave voting seats are clearly vulnerable (North Norfolk, Eastbourne, Carshalton), and potentially up to three Scottish seats (O&S is safe).

So, my reckon on a sensible floor for the LDs is 6 + 1 (Richmond Park), aka 7.

But I also suspect they'll do better than that. Those additional votes - and even if they were to get just 10% - would still mean they'd increased their total 40%. Those votes have to go somewhere. And in 2017, Farron may have spent his time talking about gay sex, but the underlying targeting of seats was much better than either I, or any other posters, thought. Who expected to see OxWAb or Bath or Eastbourne turn Yellow? Not me. (Kingston and Twickenham I did see... but the others, not so much.)

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Ave_it said:

spudgfsh said:

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

speedy2 said:

The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.

They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.

Bolsover Tory Gain

Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???

I live in the constituency (derby south) and labour have actually tried to canvass my house (the first time in the 17 years I've lived in it). I think they're worried but I expect Beckett to hold on (sadly this mess is all her fault).

Yes likely but by only 2,000. If that is the case then LAB have one seat in the Midlands excl Birm and Leic

I'm a member of the Lib Dems but we have no chance in the seat. I have to make the decision between the devil and the deep blue sea on thursday. I'm tempted to vote Conservative only because it'll get Beckett closer to being voted out.

Lab will hold onto seats in nottingham surely?

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

kle4 said:

Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!

Although I don't like Boris's New Model Wehrmacht, I will be sad if @Tissue_Price does not make it. Or at least until he gets assimilated...

He seems a pleasant enough fellow, but he’s a typical party line man and I haven’t seen him say anything here of striking insight or independence of thought. He won’t do any harm but our politics is really not wanting for more party whip backbenchers.

If we're going to get more party line people they might as well be political betting wonks as well at least.

Correct Horse Battery will be back at 10pm if MRP shows less than CON maj 200

I haven't seen MRP but I wouldn't be surprised if it was LAB/SNP overall government

rcs1000 said:

While you shouldn't take FocalData too seriously, it does have Dumbartonshire East as *very* close.

While having Fife NE as a comfortable LD gain. And the SNP taking Caithness.

I must admit, the fairly random turnover of seats looks quite convincing to me.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is turning into nightmare situation. Same sort of parliament we have now, so more silly buggery for years, Corbynonomics cemented in place as the true believers will think one more heave (and they will get it next time because Brexit won't be sorted and global recession is coming) and the Lib Dems nowhere.

Why don't you just predict a Labour majority of 150?

Then, anything less than that will be a bonus.

spudgfsh said:

Ave_it said:

spudgfsh said:

Ave_it said:

bigjohnowls said:

speedy2 said:

The Focaldata MRP is really weird.
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.

They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.

Bolsover Tory Gain

Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???

I live in the constituency (derby south) and labour have actually tried to canvass my house (the first time in the 17 years I've lived in it). I think they're worried but I expect Beckett to hold on (sadly this mess is all her fault).

Yes likely but by only 2,000. If that is the case then LAB have one seat in the Midlands excl Birm and Leic

I'm a member of the Lib Dems but we have no chance in the seat. I have to make the decision between the devil and the deep blue sea on thursday. I'm tempted to vote Conservative only because it'll get Beckett closer to being voted out.

Lab will hold onto seats in nottingham surely?

Please vote CON. Please. We need the vote

rcs1000 said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

rcs1000 said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.

They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.

Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.

I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.

That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.

They only need to get 11% to reach a 50% jump in votes. Don't forget they only got 7.4% in 2017. Now, it's possible they fall short of that, but have there been any polls (yet!) with them on 10%?

Of the LDs current seats, the three Leave voting seats are clearly vulnerable (North Norfolk, Eastbourne, Carshalton), and potentially up to three Scottish seats (O&S is safe).

So, my reckon on a sensible floor for the LDs is 6 + 1 (Richmond Park), aka 7.

But I also suspect they'll do better than that. Those additional votes - and even if they were to get just 10% - would still mean they'd increased their total 40%. Those votes have to go somewhere. And in 2017, Farron may have spent his time talking about gay sex, but the underlying targeting of seats was much better than either I, or any other posters, thought. Who expected to see OxWAb or Bath or Eastbourne turn Yellow? Not me. (Kingston and Twickenham I did see... but the others, not so much.)

Well I certainly expected the LibDems to gain Bath and nicely profitable it was too.

I'd say it was probably the most predictable LibDem gain in 2017.

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).

SouthamObserver said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

Given all that, which I largely agree with, it’s pretty clear Johnson inspires a level of disgust which causes many to overlook what you observe.

I know quite a few people who are about to vote Labour and they simply have not taken on board the reality of Corbyn and the Labour leadership. They are blind to what they are doing. During the campaign for much of the time it is like a simulacrum of a normal election in a stable democracy so Corbyn is normalised. Quite frightening.

Ave_it said:

Correct Horse Battery will be back at 10pm if MRP shows less than CON maj 200

I haven't seen MRP but I wouldn't be surprised if it was LAB/SNP overall government

He's already been tweeting with excitement about a nailed on hung parliament

Stark_Dawning said:

speedy2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Hmm - Grieve may only be about 10% behind now in Beaconfield, according to this. That may be the reason for the strange Tory hustings cancellation mentioned in the Indy.

He also thinks Raab's in trouble.

https://twitter.com/paulhilder/status/1204445438071517184

I think Grieve will do it. Non-Tories will know it will piss off Boris; Tories will know Grieve's an ardent Tory but a free-thinking one who'll bolster the constituency's profile. Win win for him.

The problem for Grieve and for other independent MP's is that they don't have local popularity of the size needed to overcome party votes.

Locally he was denounced by the constituency association which tried for many years now to get rid of him.

He is simply an MP who is in the wrong place in the wrong party at the wrong time.
But even Chuka is strugling in the City.

Disagree. Grieve is as almost as synonymous with Brexit as Boris. His profile in his constituency will now be huge. Everyone will see him as 'our man' and vote him in.

My entry in the prediction contest earlier had Others=2. One for the Speaker and one for either Claire Wright or Dominic G. Edit/ or Naomi in NI

Stark_Dawning said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Hmm - Grieve may only be about 10% behind now in Beaconfield, according to this. That may be the reason for the strange Tory hustings cancellation mentioned in the Indy.

He also thinks Raab's in trouble.

https://twitter.com/paulhilder/status/1204445438071517184

I think Grieve will do it. Non-Tories will know it will piss off Boris; Tories will know Grieve's an ardent Tory but a free-thinking one who'll bolster the constituency's profile. Win win for him.

Grieve has the following problems, also known as the Rory Stewart paradox:
1. He's a Tory
2. He's not.

rcs1000 said:

The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

Save this post.

You may well be accurate, although I suspect your results have more to do with reading your tea leaves than any scientific extrapolation.

I have the result as anything from the Conservative Party on most seats to a hundred plus majority. I can't believe the LDs will be so low either.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

kle4 said:

Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!

Although I don't like Boris's New Model Wehrmacht, I will be sad if @Tissue_Price does not make it. Or at least until he gets assimilated...

He seems a pleasant enough fellow, but he’s a typical party line man and I haven’t seen him say anything here of striking insight or independence of thought. He won’t do any harm but our politics is really not wanting for more party whip backbenchers.

If we're going to get more party line people they might as well be political betting wonks as well at least.

Indeed.

CatMan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).

CatMan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).

He isn’t ‘even worse’. Far from it.

And the quote wasn’t as you describe. He was describing the fact that free movement applied across the whole EU so the UK couldn’t distinguish, and he made the point in a perfectly rational and reasonable manner.

There are things to criticise Boris for, heavily, like tank-topped bumboys, letterboxes and suicide bombing gags.

This isn’t one of them.

Stephen Daisley in the Spectator - Nicola Sturgeon’s failings are catching up with her

"Could the SNP leader’s sudden transformation from Dolores Umbridge to Luna Lovegood be connected to the fact she has been forced to campaign in Lanarkshire? Or to her futile pleas for party activists not to canvass for a candidate dropped for anti-Semitism? Or to the stubborn failure of the polls to show the Scottish Tories being punished for Brexit?"

CatMan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).

Very succinctly put!

HaroldO said:

IanB2 said:

What Tories appear to be struggling with is that voters don’t actually like Bozo, and he isn’t the good campaigner he was cracked up to be. He is afloat simply because voters dislike Corbyn more.

We have Johnson as a result of Corbyn. They need each other.

The Conservative and Labour Parties are both shit. Fear of one enables the other. And the worst thing is the further apart they repel one another (and, by extension, their voters,) the more secure they become.

The Tories have permission to present us with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister because Labour started all of this by throwing their rattles out the pram when Mr Tombstone flopped. If they finish second in an election for the fourth time on the bounce then God alone knows what form of deranged lunatic Momentum will inflict upon the country, in the seemingly inevitable fit of uncomprehending and thwarted rage that will begin on Friday morning under those circumstances.

The rest of us are caught between these two hostile camps and completely powerless to escape.

Razedabode said:

Ave_it said:

Correct Horse Battery will be back at 10pm if MRP shows less than CON maj 200

I haven't seen MRP but I wouldn't be surprised if it was LAB/SNP overall government

He's already been tweeting with excitement about a nailed on hung parliament

Wait what? He thinks there’ll be a hung parliament?

That’s new.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Artist said:

marke0903 said:

NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1

CON majority 24

A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.

We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.

So wrong

No, it’s spot on.

If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.

Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.

You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.

PrinceofTaranto said:

rcs1000 said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

rcs1000 said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.

They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.

Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.

I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.

That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.

They only need to get 11% to reach a 50% jump in votes. Don't forget they only got 7.4% in 2017. Now, it's possible they fall short of that, but have there been any polls (yet!) with them on 10%?

Of the LDs current seats, the three Leave voting seats are clearly vulnerable (North Norfolk, Eastbourne, Carshalton), and potentially up to three Scottish seats (O&S is safe).

So, my reckon on a sensible floor for the LDs is 6 + 1 (Richmond Park), aka 7.

But I also suspect they'll do better than that. Those additional votes - and even if they were to get just 10% - would still mean they'd increased their total 40%. Those votes have to go somewhere. And in 2017, Farron may have spent his time talking about gay sex, but the underlying targeting of seats was much better than either I, or any other posters, thought. Who expected to see OxWAb or Bath or Eastbourne turn Yellow? Not me. (Kingston and Twickenham I did see... but the others, not so much.)

Westmoreland could also go of course . Otherwise agree on your base case.

Indeed, but my assumption is that they will get a lot more second places but few new MPs. in 2024 those second places will be to their advantage though especially if people are as fatigued with the Tories as they were in 1997.

Just ordering the patented Polly nose-peg off Amazon for Thursday.....

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

It's like Edwin Edwards v David Duke.

We vote for Edwin Edwards because the alternative is even worse.

Byronic said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

It should be no contest.

It’s not a binary choice.

Sean_F said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

It's like Edwin Edwards v David Duke.

We vote for Edwin Edwards because the alternative is even worse.

Chirac vs Le Pen was the one that came to my mind.

The UK/NI border in the Irish Sea - the one that Boris says will not exist - will have its non-existent border checkpoints in Liverpool and Stranraer

It is nice to have that one cleared up....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50733840

Jonathan said:

Byronic said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

It should be no contest.

It’s not a binary choice.

That's precisely what it is.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If we are to assume the YouGov MRP will show a 30 seat majority on a ~9 point lead (which is what the other MRP released tonight shows), to me that indicates a movement of 2 points will result in a Hung Parliament?

I expect that a 9% lead would result in a much bigger majority than 30. More like 70, IMHO, and that's where you should be betting.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I know you all missed me deeply, I was banned.

You were? For how long? A tea-break???

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Artist said:

marke0903 said:

NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1

CON majority 24

A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.

We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.

So wrong

No, it’s spot on.

If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.

Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.

You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.

You'd be mad to trust Johnson with anything. He's a sociopathic liar who will do and say whatever he wants in his pursuit of power. There's nothing to prevent him deciding that a hard Brexit is to his personal benefit and going for it. In fact, that is what I expect him to do if he gets his majority.

Sean_F said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

It's like Edwin Edwards v David Duke.

We vote for Edwin Edwards because the alternative is even worse.

If that’s how you feel vote for someone else. It’s not a binary choice.

Right now looking at the polls the clear and present danger is a Tory majority. The priority has to be to limit Boris’ power.

Byronic said:

Jonathan said:

Byronic said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

It should be no contest.

It’s not a binary choice.

YES. IT. IS.

LOOK AT THE POLLS

No it isn’t. Look at your ballot paper.

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.

Chirac had a far worse count on all measures.

Corbyn is a dangerous idiot who’s driven by a juvenile dogma that will see our economy collapse in a debt-fuelled crisis, and result in people lose their jobs and homes. He will make us far more vulnerable to security threats, that Russia and China will exploit, and quite possibly get people killed in developing terrorist plots that he refuses to act upon. Strikes will become frequent and more regular. Our lives will be depressed and utterly miserable. For some, Jews, there will be an exodus that will utterly shame our country. Others will fear for their rights of free expression in the intimidating atmosphere he facilitated, and the security of their properties.

Boris will just be a massive self-centred twat and rather lazy whilst doing it. He’ll drift along making pretty bog-standard establishment decisions, which he’ll big up as massive successes. But he won’t threaten the fundamentals of our national security, defence, economy, terrify one of our longstanding religious communities or pour fuel of the flames of political violence. He will be something of a damp squib and the Tories out by the next election, if sanity returns.

It isn’t even a difficult choice.

CatMan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Byronic said:

I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

I feel much the same way.

I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.

I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).

I was initially very offended at that example. But when I read it in context I *think* he meant it as "they can travel here as easily as if they can travel in their own country which is far too unrestricted".