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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.
    You have no answer to this inconvenient but highly relevant fact. Boris Johnson is a clear menace to the country, just as Jeremy Corbyn is. Only your shrill mania prevents you seeing this.
    The distinct advantage of Corbyn over Johnson is his zero probability of a majority.
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    I agree with your second paragraph. I would also agree with it if you substituted Corbyn for Boris and Stalinists for English Defence League supporters.

    Abuse away!
    Boris Johnson is friends with Taki Theodorocopulos and his other pal Darius Guppy writes for Richard Spencer.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Majority of only 28.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Hardly surprising unfortunately. It is in the wild bird population and emerges into the domestic bird population with frightening regularity. I have almost got to the point where I don't bother removing the isolation protection from my chickens and ducks anymore as I pretty quickly have to reinstall it all. Very depressing

    Worrying given the number of Xmas birds in that area. I saw my own turkey being taken off to meet his end yesterday afternoon.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Pass the Refreshers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    My prediction was 40 to 50.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Guido has great sources

    It's Tory maj of 30. Fuck. We are inches from disaster
  • Gentlemen. Start your engines...

    60 seconds to go.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Forex sites saying MRP has con maj 28.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:



    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Chirac had a far worse count on all measures.

    Corbyn is a dangerous idiot who’s driven by a juvenile dogma that will see our economy collapse in a debt-fuelled crisis, and result in people lose their jobs and homes. He will make us far more vulnerable to security threats, that Russia and China will exploit, and quite possibly get people killed in developing terrorist plots that he refuses to act upon. Strikes will become frequent and more regular. Our lives will be depressed and utterly miserable. For some, Jews, there will be an exodus that will utterly shame our country. Others will fear for their rights of free expression in the intimidating atmosphere he facilitated, and the security of their properties.

    Boris will just be a massive self-centred twat and rather lazy whilst doing it. He’ll drift along making pretty bog-standard establishment decisions, which he’ll big up as massive successes. But he won’t threaten the fundamentals of our national security, defence, economy, terrify one of our longstanding religious communities or pour fuel of the flames of political violence. He will be something of a damp squib and the Tories out by the next election, if sanity returns.

    It isn’t even a difficult choice.
    If you feel that way, deny both a majority.
    We don’t have this choice at this election.

    It would result in another gridlocked parliament and a No Deal Brexit.
    Disagree.
    Err.. ok.

    You’re still wrong, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
    That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
    I agree there is a long and honorable tradition of English radicalism, from the Levellers and Diggers to the Tolpuddle Martyrs and Chartists, the Abolitionists and the Pro-Boers through to modern times. Corbyn is at the heart of this tradition.

    For example, Thomas Paine's books were massive sellers in their day, and still read well today. The Rights of Man sold possibly a million copies, when the population of England was less than 10 million people.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    28. Even worse
  • Drutt said:

    Forex sites saying MRP has con maj 28.

    Didn't model. NOT YOUGOV.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    edited December 2019
    Rumour of 28 now.
  • Here. We. Go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    I've genuinely forgotten what the first MRP showed.
  • kle4 said:

    I've genuinely forgotten what the first MRP showed.

    68
  • kle4 said:

    I've genuinely forgotten what the first MRP showed.

    68
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    :o
  • F5 F5 F5
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction was 40 to 50.

    It was my prediction too.
    It's heading for Hung Parliament again.
  • TORY MAJORITY OF 28.
  • Tories are f##ked.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Mwahahahaha Hung Parliament!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Oh bollocks though 68 was the new number!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    Boris clever? So the rumour that he was a Skullion Scholar at Oxford is untrue?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

    Catastrophe.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.

    You’re a good guy, Jonathan. I like you and I wish the Labour Party had more like you.

    However, one of things that drives you is a pathological detestation of the Conservative Party, your lifelong enemy.

    It is so obvious how this comes out in your most partisan form, and I know it isn’t really you.

    You’re a thinker.
    If only we all had your impartiality and objectivity Casino! FWIW Boris took it to a new level when he acted unlawfully. Should have been sacked then and there. No way back after that.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    That's a surprising comment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Ave_it said:

    Oh bollocks though 68 was the new number!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    LOL :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    delete
  • Labour have made a lot of progress
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    MRP Con Maj = 28
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Didn't expect LDs to rise from 12 to 15.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Pound off a cliff. Just the beginning.
  • Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    No it’s not.
    You are making assumptions about large majority Johnson government which are heroically rose tinted. Some might say delusional.
    Nope, everything we know about Boris’s personality and past record tells us he wants to ditch the ERG and do a practical deal with the EU, and sell it as a huge success..
    It really doesn’t. Sacking the left wing of his party, benching Hunt and appointing people like Raab, Patel and Mogg to the cabinet point to another direction.
    Thats because he was in a hung parliament and hostage to the ERG and trying to get to the election!

    Obvs.
  • I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Of course 28 majority means just 14 seats over the 326 winning mark.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Andy_JS said:
    MOE also means it could be 60 majority.
  • So a 9 point lead indicates a small majority.

    7 looks like a Hung Parliament - and Labour look to be on the move.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
  • Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.

    I think people need to calm down.
  • How long can Johnson keep a majority of 28 together? 18 months? Less?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    So YouGov are saying 9% is now only just barely enough....last MRP you had to get down to 6-7% before it was Hung Parliament time.
  • delete

    Eh??
  • RobD said:
    Down from 11 with YouGov right? Or was it 10?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Tories are f##ked.

    They needed a better manifesto.
    42-43% is not enough to win a majority in the present times, they need more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    And yet polls have barely moved, as an average, in several weeks.

    I make so many predictions, but I think the last one I made was Tory majority of about 35. They'd take that, or 28 for that matter, but there's no doubt the MRP will give Labour supporters a shot in the arm, belief that they can do this, they just need to outperform the polls a little rather than a lot. They could still do this.

    Pleasant night to all.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Labour get a gain in Putney.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    So YouGov are saying 9% is now only just barely enough....last MRP you had to get down to 6-7% before it was Hung Parliament time.

    Could be BXP being silly buggers in Labour seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    As expected, Labour are up 2% at the expense of the LDs. Tories static on 43%.

    Con 43%
    Lab 34%
    LD 12%
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    The actual headline voting % haven't changed all that much (9 point lead?)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    What's that smell? :wink:
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    RobD said:

    Ave_it said:

    Oh bollocks though 68 was the new number!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    LOL :D
    Hope I get the exit poll right.

    Mon-Fri I am living with CHB
    Sat/Sun I am living outside cyclefree's £5m hampstead house

    What a shit poll
  • 28 means an effective majority of around 34 once the shinners and speakers are taken into account.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Considering that doesn't even take into account Tactical Voting, this election is tight.

    As one or two of us have been suggesting ;)

    And that's a clear and definite shift to Labour.

    Cons will be a bit worried tonight. If they're not in denial.
  • Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
    That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.

    You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.

    It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.

    This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.
    Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.
  • https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1204521319032860680?s=20

    Labour is recovering - but is it quickly enough?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Farage needs to move. NOW.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    Is the .csv of this latest MRP up on the website yet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Yeesh, 28 majority on a 9 pt lead? It's not going to be that large a gap.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.

    We're having a practice run for Thursday night :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    speedy2 said:
    So in two weeks LAB have gained two?

    *innocent face*
  • Byronic said:

    Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

    Catastrophe.

    The catastrophe is a Labour majority. That isn’t happening. A close to 10 point lead will deliver the Tories a handy majority. Johnson will be free to launch his assault on the constitution.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717
    rcs1000 said:

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    If the Lib Dems gain a decent number of affluent English seats and Jo Swinson loses hers, it would be a good result for them in the longer term. Choosing her was a disastrous decision.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.

    You’re a good guy, Jonathan. I like you and I wish the Labour Party had more like you.

    However, one of things that drives you is a pathological detestation of the Conservative Party, your lifelong enemy.

    It is so obvious how this comes out in your most partisan form, and I know it isn’t really you.

    You’re a thinker.
    If only we all had your impartiality and objectivity Casino! FWIW Boris took it to a new level when he acted unlawfully. Should have been sacked then and there. No way back after that.
    You know I hated that just as much as you did. I said so on here at the time.

    This is about stopping Corbyn, and resolving (for now) the biggest national issue we face.

    Boris can then do one if he’s shite as far as I’m concerned.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited December 2019

    Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.

    I think people need to calm down.

    It's PB 48hrs before a general election. And you expect people to be calm? ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Yougov MRP then still gives a Tory majority of 28 and the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher even if as expected it has tightened a bit since the last poll

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204521341774381056?s=20
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Poll predicts biggest Tory majority in 32 years.

    PB Tories panic and say “hung parliament”

    Go figure.
  • Me thinks it's going to be like 1992. It's definitely not looking very 1983
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Equivalent poll in 2017 understated the Tories by 15+ seats
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Byronic said:

    Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

    Catastrophe.

    The country is fucked
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Labour have made a lot of progress

    They would be losing seats still. Which is ridiculously bad at this stage of a government.
  • Hmm. Tiny voteshare changes are causing rather big changes in seat totals here.

    That could play out either way on Election Day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    9% lead = comfortable Conservative majority. There is no need for bed-wetting.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    East Devon is a tossup between IND and CON with the point estimates and confidence intervals both exactly the same, and no other party on more than 3 !
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Con : Other seats %age is 52:48.

    And lo, the banter heuristic came to pass
  • It’s up to Nigel to rescue this now.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    One thing is certain if the Yougov MRP result is correct prepare for years of more of the same and no change.
  • So an increase in 2 points = 20 seats.

    So 2 more points and 319 = HP.

    Off we go
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    How long can Johnson keep a majority of 28 together? 18 months? Less?

    He can keep it until the first Brexit vote that is not the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (that they are all signed up to)

    Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.

    I think people need to calm down.

    Direction of travel and how much further progress need to make, ie, not much more. Still a good result for the Tories if it pans out, but the media narrative will spread - it is close, very close. And will those Labour waverers, and the red wall, risk it now?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    At GE2017 the combined Tory majorities in their 14 most marginal seats was 5,596 votes, meaning 2,803 people voting differently would have lost them those seats.

    2,803 votes out of 33 million.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Byronic said:

    Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.

    Catastrophe.

    Nope, the final 2017 Yougov MRP correctly forecast a hung parliament, this one forecasts a Tory majority
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Sean_F said:

    9% lead = comfortable Conservative majority. There is no need for bed-wetting.

    It is entertaining though. ;)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    9 point lead is still very good, 1 day of campaigning to go and the Tories would have taken that 6 weeks ago, but obviously a shame the majority has halved, but that was over 2 weeks or so!
  • For goodness sake all of you, get a grip! It is a poll saying Boris will win and the fact it is not suggesting a landslide means any Tory waiverers are far less likely to waiver if there is even the slightest chance of a Corbyn government.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Lib Dems gain South Cambs, St Albans, Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam. Lose Brecon & Radnorshire, North Norfolk.
This discussion has been closed.