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  • Right, I'm making a brew and getting chocolate. Keep refreshing, lads:

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
  • spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.

    They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.

    Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.

    I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.
    That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.
    They only need to get 11% to reach a 50% jump in votes. Don't forget they only got 7.4% in 2017. Now, it's possible they fall short of that, but have there been any polls (yet!) with them on 10%?

    Of the LDs current seats, the three Leave voting seats are clearly vulnerable (North Norfolk, Eastbourne, Carshalton), and potentially up to three Scottish seats (O&S is safe).

    So, my reckon on a sensible floor for the LDs is 6 + 1 (Richmond Park), aka 7.

    But I also suspect they'll do better than that. Those additional votes - and even if they were to get just 10% - would still mean they'd increased their total 40%. Those votes have to go somewhere. And in 2017, Farron may have spent his time talking about gay sex, but the underlying targeting of seats was much better than either I, or any other posters, thought. Who expected to see OxWAb or Bath or Eastbourne turn Yellow? Not me. (Kingston and Twickenham I did see... but the others, not so much.)
    Westmoreland could also go of course . Otherwise agree on your base case.
    Indeed, but my assumption is that they will get a lot more second places but few new MPs. in 2024 those second places will be to their advantage though especially if people are as fatigued with the Tories as they were in 1997.
    Yes to be fair there are going to be a lot of near or nearish misses I think in the South of England.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    If Corbyn wins I am moving in with CHB. He is LD so clearly lives in a large house
  • The MRP will show a majority of around 30.

    But I think it will again me captioned with the very real fact that the momentum is clearly with Labour and a bit more momentum will leave them in Government.

    I hope that's the outcome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    A lot of people may not know that the updated version of the YouGov MRP in 2017 was less accurate than the first version. The updated version had Con 303, Lab 269. The original version in 2017 was Con 310, Lab 259, which was closer to the actual result of Con 318, Lab 262.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:



    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Chirac had a far worse count on all measures.

    Corbyn is a dangerous idiot who’s driven by a juvenile dogma that will see our economy collapse in a debt-fuelled crisis, and result in people lose their jobs and homes. He will make us far more vulnerable to security threats, that Russia and China will exploit, and quite possibly get people killed in developing terrorist plots that he refuses to act upon. Strikes will become frequent and more regular. Our lives will be depressed and utterly miserable. For some, Jews, there will be an exodus that will utterly shame our country. Others will fear for their rights of free expression in the intimidating atmosphere he facilitated, and the security of their properties.

    Boris will just be a massive self-centred twat and rather lazy whilst doing it. He’ll drift along making pretty bog-standard establishment decisions, which he’ll big up as massive successes. But he won’t threaten the fundamentals of our national security, defence, economy, terrify one of our longstanding religious communities or pour fuel of the flames of political violence. He will be something of a damp squib and the Tories out by the next election, if sanity returns.

    It isn’t even a difficult choice.
    If you feel that way, deny both a majority.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Ave_it said:

    19 mins to go.

    Will LAB/SNP go ahead?

    LAB/SNP only need 280 to form a government

    How? Are we unilaterally kicking Wales and Northern Ireland out of the Union?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    I agree with your second paragraph. I would also agree with it if you substituted Corbyn for Boris and Stalinists for English Defence League supporters.

    Abuse away!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.
    You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

    You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

    We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

    I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

    Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.
    You'd be mad to trust Johnson with anything. He's a sociopathic liar who will do and say whatever he wants in his pursuit of power. There's nothing to prevent him deciding that a hard Brexit is to his personal benefit and going for it. In fact, that is what I expect him to do if he gets his majority.
    In what fucking universe is a hard Brexit somehow as bad as ruinous Chavez economics and nationally normalised Jew hatred? How? How??

    You're saying Well I don't like that Weimar instability so I'll vote for that firm Mr Hitler.
  • Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.
    You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

    You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

    We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

    I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

    Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.
    And what if your vote gets Corbyn into power? And what if your vote gives Corbyn a small majorty? If enough people do what you are doing, then a Corbyn majority is certain. It's just logic.

    Stalinists and anti-Semites running the country? YOU are enabling that. Shame, shame, shame, shame.
    You're getting boring.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people may not know that the updated version of the YouGov MRP in 2017 was less accurate than the first version. The updated version had Con 303, Lab 269. The original version in 2017 was Con 310, Lab 259, which was closer to the actual result of Con 318, Lab 262.

    They've over-corrected. LAB majority nailed on! :o
  • TOPPING said:

    Hey! I'm back!

    Fuck off

    Edit: kidding.
    You can say whatever you want to me, no need to apologise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    No it’s not.
    You are making assumptions about large majority Johnson government which are heroically rose tinted. Some might say delusional.
  • Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    It's like Edwin Edwards v David Duke.

    We vote for Edwin Edwards because the alternative is even worse.
    If that’s how you feel vote for someone else. It’s not a binary choice.

    Right now looking at the polls the clear and present danger is a Tory majority. The priority has to be to limit Boris’ power.
    Boris will be led by UK and EU civil servants.

    You’d actually be voting for Francois, Redwood and Arlene Foster to hold the whip hand.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Hey! I'm back!

    Fuck off

    Edit: kidding.
    You can say whatever you want to me, no need to apologise.
    a) I know
    b) I didn't
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    I think it'll probably show a majority of between 40 and 50, unless this rumour of 30 is correct.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    Newcastle under Lyme staying Labour, but Don Valley going Con - poor TissuePrice!

    Although I don't like Boris's New Model Wehrmacht, I will be sad if @Tissue_Price does not make it. Or at least until he gets assimilated... :(

    He seems a pleasant enough fellow, but he’s a typical party line man and I haven’t seen him say anything here of striking insight or independence of thought. He won’t do any harm but our politics is really not wanting for more party whip backbenchers.
    I am not a fan of @Tissue_Price politics, but he has always been open about his employment, and on a site about betting cannot be seen to show up his employer. I suspect that he will toe the party line, but probably is better than most party drones.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.
    You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

    You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

    We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

    I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

    Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.
    There isn’t, and he wouldn’t.

    Don’t you want your own party back?
  • Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
    That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    I think it'll probably show a majority of between 40 and 50, unless this rumour of 30 is correct.

    Its not really a rumour. Its a guy who has actually been briefed on it and has been a bell-end and decided to make it crystal clear what it will say.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Hey! I'm back!

    WB ✅🐴🔋
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    rpjs said:

    Ave_it said:

    19 mins to go.

    Will LAB/SNP go ahead?

    LAB/SNP only need 280 to form a government

    How? Are we unilaterally kicking Wales and Northern Ireland out of the Union?
    Cos those LD SDLP PC and GRN Corbynistas will support it

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
    That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
    You are deluded. So utterly deluded. I despair.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Hey! I'm back!

    Fuck off

    Edit: kidding.
    You can say whatever you want to me, no need to apologise.
    a) I know
    b) I didn't
    I didn't mean you specifically, I meant people in general can.
  • Ave_it said:

    19 mins to go.

    Will LAB/SNP go ahead?

    LAB/SNP only need 280 to form a government

    I don’t follow your figures. The Tories would still have more than 300 in that scenario...

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    It's like Edwin Edwards v David Duke.

    We vote for Edwin Edwards because the alternative is even worse.
    If that’s how you feel vote for someone else. It’s not a binary choice.

    Right now looking at the polls the clear and present danger is a Tory majority. The priority has to be to limit Boris’ power.
    Boris will be led by UK and EU civil servants.

    You’d actually be voting for Francois, Redwood and Arlene Foster to hold the whip hand.
    Your putting a lot of faith in Boris, where all the evidence points against trusting him.

    Anyway, this debate is futile now. We should talk again when polls close. Important.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.
  • trukattrukat Posts: 39
    Ave_it said:

    If Corbyn wins I am moving in with CHB. He is LD so clearly lives in a large house

    If Corbyn wins i'm gonna sign on the Dole. Might as well beat the rush.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Ave_it said:

    If Corbyn wins I am moving in with CHB. He is LD so clearly lives in a large house

    As all LDs know, space is needed to accommodate Momentum members in the scullery and the idiot sons of ERG members as gardeners following their time at agricultural college learning which end of a sheep to feed. :)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    To be honest I think a man who would rather take a reporter's phone off him than look at a picture of a seriously ill child and respond like a human being, is pretty anti-British too but then I'm a raging trot so what do I know
  • I know you all missed me deeply, I was banned.

    Glad you are back. I know you wind people up and vice versa but you are still an asset to this particular bag of cats
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:



    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Chirac had a far worse count on all measures.

    Corbyn is a dangerous idiot who’s driven by a juvenile dogma that will see our economy collapse in a debt-fuelled crisis, and result in people lose their jobs and homes. He will make us far more vulnerable to security threats, that Russia and China will exploit, and quite possibly get people killed in developing terrorist plots that he refuses to act upon. Strikes will become frequent and more regular. Our lives will be depressed and utterly miserable. For some, Jews, there will be an exodus that will utterly shame our country. Others will fear for their rights of free expression in the intimidating atmosphere he facilitated, and the security of their properties.

    Boris will just be a massive self-centred twat and rather lazy whilst doing it. He’ll drift along making pretty bog-standard establishment decisions, which he’ll big up as massive successes. But he won’t threaten the fundamentals of our national security, defence, economy, terrify one of our longstanding religious communities or pour fuel of the flames of political violence. He will be something of a damp squib and the Tories out by the next election, if sanity returns.

    It isn’t even a difficult choice.
    If you feel that way, deny both a majority.
    We don’t have this choice at this election.

    It would result in another gridlocked parliament and a No Deal Brexit.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You can mutter that helplessly when your home and assets are confiscated by the Socialist State without recourse in “the name of the people”.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I would say if Tory majority stays within the 1.4 to 1.45 range then a majority of 30 is probably what the MRP is showing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    I think it simpler than that. She simply campaigns on what she believes, whatever other people think. Something that she has in common with both Jezza and Maggie. It contrasts well with more flexible politicians.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    Out to 1.42 on Betfair now. Are we getting any other polls?
  • Andy_JS said:

    I think it'll probably show a majority of between 40 and 50, unless this rumour of 30 is correct.

    I think you're right with that, unless its between 60 and 70, though we can't rule out between 20 and 10. 😉
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.
    You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

    You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

    We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

    I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

    Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.
    There isn’t, and he wouldn’t.

    Don’t you want your own party back?
    Yet he has done absolutely nothing to suggest that he doesn't want a hard Brexit.
    He told me personally that he didn't think a no deal Brexit would damage the economy much. And he has ruled out extending the transition even though nobody believes he can do an advantageous trade deal with the EU by the end of next year.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).
    I'm sure you were moderated for calling all labour voters cunts.
    No, that was me
    Clearly I misused the quote function.... I thought at least a facade of decency was expected from PB'ers. Call them drones or some other back dated 60+ witticism.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.
    If Corbyn had done what Boris has done you would be ranting about that. The PM acted unlawfully when things didn’t work out. That’s not ok.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    Alastair as you are one of the biggest Corbynistas on this site hope you are looking forward to LAB/SNP maj

    Not like this in Hungary which is led by progressive liberal ORBAN


  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
    That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
    Which bits does he like? I'd struggle to think of any. But I'm sure as a fan you could list 3 or 4 for me.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    He doesn't have the numbers for that.

    Yet.
  • I know you all missed me deeply, I was banned.

    Glad you are back. I know you wind people up and vice versa but you are still an asset to this particular bag of cats
    I don't come here to wind anyone up on purpose - and I'd hate if anyone did get that impression - but on the other hand I don't appreciate some of the things were said and I am not prepared to let them slide.
  • Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
    That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.

    You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.

    It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.

    This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:



    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Chirac had a far worse count on all measures.

    Corbyn is a dangerous idiot who’s driven by a juvenile dogma that will see our economy collapse in a debt-fuelled crisis, and result in people lose their jobs and homes. He will make us far more vulnerable to security threats, that Russia and China will exploit, and quite possibly get people killed in developing terrorist plots that he refuses to act upon. Strikes will become frequent and more regular. Our lives will be depressed and utterly miserable. For some, Jews, there will be an exodus that will utterly shame our country. Others will fear for their rights of free expression in the intimidating atmosphere he facilitated, and the security of their properties.

    Boris will just be a massive self-centred twat and rather lazy whilst doing it. He’ll drift along making pretty bog-standard establishment decisions, which he’ll big up as massive successes. But he won’t threaten the fundamentals of our national security, defence, economy, terrify one of our longstanding religious communities or pour fuel of the flames of political violence. He will be something of a damp squib and the Tories out by the next election, if sanity returns.

    It isn’t even a difficult choice.
    If you feel that way, deny both a majority.
    We don’t have this choice at this election.

    It would result in another gridlocked parliament and a No Deal Brexit.
    Disagree.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    A very brave and unequivocal call by RCS, very much at odds with the body of opinion expressed here on PB.com this evening and indeed throughout the day.
    I rather liked his final little piece of arrogance when he added "Save this post", as if to remind us ... "lest you forget just how brilliant I am."
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    It's a huge issue in youth political circles. Outside it's almost not spoken about.
    Nope, it's more than that. If you work in the tech/startup sphere you most probably know someone trans. I'm only tangentially connected with that world and know at least three.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.
    You have no answer to this inconvenient but highly relevant fact. Boris Johnson is a clear menace to the country, just as Jeremy Corbyn is. Only your shrill mania prevents you seeing this.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Andy_JS said:

    I know you all missed me deeply, I was banned.

    Welcome back, looking forward to your commentary on the MRP.
    Glad to have a couple of people value my contributions and whom treat me with some level of respect. Thanks.
    Who, not whom. Tks.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).
    I'm sure you were moderated for calling all labour voters cunts.
    No, that was me
    Clearly I misused the quote function.... I thought at least a facade of decency was expected from PB'ers. Call them drones or some other back dated 60+ witticism.
    Yeah whatevs. They are tho, aren't they? C*nts, I mean. Labour voters. C*nts.

    All of 'em
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.
    You have no answer to this inconvenient but highly relevant fact. Boris Johnson is a clear menace to the country, just as Jeremy Corbyn is. Only your shrill mania prevents you seeing this.
    I've said all the way through both options are shite. But for me it's JC who won't actually be able to do anything, or Boris Johnson who will. He plans to rip up our constitution and break the media.

    I will choose the former every time.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    Have you read anything him of John McD have said about how they want to run the country?
  • You pop out for half a day and come back just 48 hours before polling closes in the GE and eagerly log in to pb expecting a plethora of new polls to fix your habit for a few hours in the face of withdrawal symptoms......

    And there is still NOTHING.

    Roll on 10pm and the YouGov MRP. I may not be able to last out till then.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Hey! I'm back!

    Fuck off

    Edit: kidding.
    You can say whatever you want to me, no need to apologise.
    a) I know
    b) I didn't
    I didn't mean you specifically, I meant people in general can.
    I'm one of your biggest fans.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Eight minutes :o

    Just imagine the excitement in 48 hours :o
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    It's a huge issue in youth political circles. Outside it's almost not spoken about.
    Nope, it's more than that. If you work in the tech/startup sphere you most probably know someone trans. I'm only tangentially connected with that world and know at least three.
    Jo Swinson's difficulty is that it is becoming a huge issue for a lot of women.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited December 2019
    I am going to come back to something I have said 100 times. The Tories needed a significant buffer in the polls (I have thought the needed >10%), because Flat Cap Fred's aren't going to vote Tory in the numbers that the polls suggest.

    We are now starting to see 7-9% polls, and I guess YouGov MRP will be based on a 8-9%. That is terrible for the Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604

    To be honest I think a man who would rather take a reporter's phone off him than look at a picture of a seriously ill child and respond like a human being, is pretty anti-British too but then I'm a raging trot so what do I know

    Are you a raging trot or just a social democrat?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I bet MRP says CON 340. But I might be wrong!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    and despite all of that 10 million people in the UK will STILL prefer him to Johnson. What does that tell us about Johnson?

    I might add that I won't be one of them. Both equally unfit to be PM IMO
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.
  • 30 wouldn't be too bad. Leaves a small cushion until polling day and should scare the hell out of Tory waverers who might otherwise switch party or think there's no point in turning out.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Henrietta said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing". Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
    Given Dickens characterisation of Fagin you may have a point.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Hey! I'm back!

    Fuck off

    Edit: kidding.
    You can say whatever you want to me, no need to apologise.
    a) I know
    b) I didn't
    I didn't mean you specifically, I meant people in general can.
    I'm one of your biggest fans.
    Well that's kind, thank you. I also think you're a decent person, unlike many on here who are not.
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    He doesn't have the numbers for that.

    Yet.
    So you will enthusiastically vote for the one who has already been proven to have the desire, casting unsubstantiated aspersions against the other (there are plenty of other things to put on the charge sheet against Jeremy Corbyn)? The rank hypocrisy of Conservatives is contemptible.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).
    I'm sure you were moderated for calling all labour voters cunts.
    No, that was me
    Object or subject?
  • Hardly surprising unfortunately. It is in the wild bird population and emerges into the domestic bird population with frightening regularity. I have almost got to the point where I don't bother removing the isolation protection from my chickens and ducks anymore as I pretty quickly have to reinstall it all. Very depressing
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    One of the two has led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy. Hint: it wasn’t Jeremy Corbyn.
    You are the worst of the lot, because you are very intelligent. So you have no excuse.
    You have no answer to this inconvenient but highly relevant fact. Boris Johnson is a clear menace to the country, just as Jeremy Corbyn is. Only your shrill mania prevents you seeing this.
    I've said all the way through both options are shite. But for me it's JC who won't actually be able to do anything, or Boris Johnson who will. He plans to rip up our constitution and break the media.

    I will choose the former every time.
    Yep.

    The reason I'm not voting for Corbyn is that he's congenitally incompetent.

    The reason I wouldn't mind Corbyn getting in is that he's congenitally incompetent.

    The reason Corbyn won't get in is that he's congenitally incompetent.
  • Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    No it’s not.
    You are making assumptions about large majority Johnson government which are heroically rose tinted. Some might say delusional.
    Nope, everything we know about Boris’s personality and past record tells us he wants to ditch the ERG and do a practical deal with the EU, and sell it as a huge success.

    This is who he is and what he does. He isn’t an ideologue.

    But, you do have to accept Brexit first, granted.

    However, if it’s the pointless exercise/disaster you expect - and global geopolitics continues to rapidly change - there’s always the option of reaccession in 10-15 years time, which will come round rather quickly.
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.
    You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

    You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

    We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

    I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

    Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.
    You'd be mad to trust Johnson with anything. He's a sociopathic liar who will do and say whatever he wants in his pursuit of power. There's nothing to prevent him deciding that a hard Brexit is to his personal benefit and going for it. In fact, that is what I expect him to do if he gets his majority.
    In what fucking universe is a hard Brexit somehow as bad as ruinous Chavez economics and nationally normalised Jew hatred? How? How??

    You're saying Well I don't like that Weimar instability so I'll vote for that firm Mr Hitler.
    Channeling your inner Ken Livingstone, ironically.
  • Watching this site try to rationalise polls is like watching the stages of grief
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Jonathan said:

    The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.

    PB Tory mode:
    [_] Smug complacent
    [X] Headless chicken panic
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    Johnson is an idiot, Corbyn is a useful idiot.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    hearing that the Brexit Party is really eating into potential Tory gains in the new YouGov MRP - meaning the Tory seat total is likely significantly down on what it could be.

    Tweet from Tom Harwood
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).
    I'm sure you were moderated for calling all labour voters cunts.
    No, that was me
    Clearly I misused the quote function.... I thought at least a facade of decency was expected from PB'ers. Call them drones or some other back dated 60+ witticism.
    Yeah whatevs. They are tho, aren't they? C*nts, I mean. Labour voters. C*nts.

    All of 'em
    Seriously Sean....it must be tough living with a full blown PD.....

  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    A very brave and unequivocal call by RCS, very much at odds with the body of opinion expressed here on PB.com this evening and indeed throughout the day.
    I rather liked his final little piece of arrogance when he added "Save this post", as if to remind us ... "lest you forget just how brilliant I am."
    Labour up in the south, tories up in the north, Midlands and Wales= tory landslide
  • Presumably on the assumption there is a late swing to Labour the exit polls might underestimate the tories a little bit when accounting for postal votes?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    hearing that the Brexit Party is really eating into potential Tory gains in the new YouGov MRP - meaning the Tory seat total is likely significantly down on what it could be.

    Tweet from Tom Harwood

    Nigel Farage. The man who stopped Brexit.
  • BluerBlue said:

    30 wouldn't be too bad. Leaves a small cushion until polling day and should scare the hell out of Tory waverers who might otherwise switch party or think there's no point in turning out.

    Which would make me feel quite comfortable in my early prediction of Tory majority single figures - around 20.

    Personally I think that’s possibly where we’ll end up. The divorce deal will go through and there’ll then be an almighty clusterf**k when it comes to the trade deal, possibly launching us into another GE, possibly leaving us with a no deal.

    Whelp.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    It's a huge issue in youth political circles. Outside it's almost not spoken about.
    Nope, it's more than that. If you work in the tech/startup sphere you most probably know someone trans. I'm only tangentially connected with that world and know at least three.
    That is a very, very small world. And a very niche one.
    I know a trans woman and she never posts about it.in fact I only noticed she had transitioned because she was wearing make up.
  • speedy2 said:

    twitter.com/_liamlane/status/1204519599565418497

    And how would this rando know?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    No it’s not.
    You are making assumptions about large majority Johnson government which are heroically rose tinted. Some might say delusional.
    Nope, everything we know about Boris’s personality and past record tells us he wants to ditch the ERG and do a practical deal with the EU, and sell it as a huge success..
    It really doesn’t. Sacking the left wing of his party, benching Hunt and appointing people like Raab, Patel and Mogg to the cabinet point to another direction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Artist said:

    marke0903 said:

    NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

    CON 337
    LAB 235
    SNP 41
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    BXP 0
    Speaker 1

    CON majority 24

    A Brexit designed by the ERG with those figures.
    We’d risk a No Deal Brexit with that.

    It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
    So wrong
    No, it’s spot on.

    If Labour do “ok” - again - you’ll be stuck with a hard Left successor on a ‘one more heave’ basis, who will - again - fail to win next time.

    Boris is going to take a lot of political damage for the final Brexit Deal, and very probably suffer a nasty recession in office too. The Tories will become wildly disliked.

    It doesn’t matter even if they get 400 seats, the electorate is very volatile these days and the right (sane) leader Labour could gain 200 seats in the subsequent election and a majority if they sort themselves out.

    The radiotherapy needs to be applied first. But, you must first get over your immediate hatred of the Tories and see the long game.
    Giving Boris a blank cheque is not the answer.
    You are far too fixated (visceral like, with your lifelong record of Labour activism) on denying “The Tories” a win.

    You’re thinking with your gut, not your head.

    We know enough about Boris to know he follows the path of least resistance. And he’ll go soft if he has the political room to do so.

    I’d say, from your point of view, it’s about giving him enough rope to hang himself.

    Nope. I don’t trust Boris. There is a significant chance he will deliver a hard Brexit. With a majority there is no mechanism to stop that. Hence I will vote to deny him that majority.
    You'd be mad to trust Johnson with anything. He's a sociopathic liar who will do and say whatever he wants in his pursuit of power. There's nothing to prevent him deciding that a hard Brexit is to his personal benefit and going for it. In fact, that is what I expect him to do if he gets his majority.
    In what fucking universe is a hard Brexit somehow as bad as ruinous Chavez economics and nationally normalised Jew hatred? How? How??

    You're saying Well I don't like that Weimar instability so I'll vote for that firm Mr Hitler.
    From your posts earlier I rather suspect that your principal concern is that you might be asked to pay a bit more tax.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Sean_F said:

    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    It's a huge issue in youth political circles. Outside it's almost not spoken about.
    Nope, it's more than that. If you work in the tech/startup sphere you most probably know someone trans. I'm only tangentially connected with that world and know at least three.
    Jo Swinson's difficulty is that it is becoming a huge issue for a lot of women.
    I would be genuinely interested to see polling on that. It is clearly a huge issue for some very vocal women, especially on Mumsnet. (On this issue I've heard Mumsnet described as "Stormfront Prosecco"...)

    But, of course, the other question is whether transphobia is to 2019 as homophobia was to, say, 1979.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    tyson said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    I think Corbyn is a prick. But Boris Johnson seems to be doing all he can to make me think he is even worse (his "EU Citizens have been using the UK as their own country for too long" article the latest example).
    I'm sure you were moderated for calling all labour voters cunts.
    No, that was me
    Clearly I misused the quote function.... I thought at least a facade of decency was expected from PB'ers. Call them drones or some other back dated 60+ witticism.
    Yeah whatevs. They are tho, aren't they? C*nts, I mean. Labour voters. C*nts.

    All of 'em
    Seriously Sean....it must be tough living with a full blown PD.....

    Hate all this bad language on here.

    Could be SNP/LAB maj 14 on MRP. Or maybe not


  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Andy_JS said:

    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Byronic said:

    I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.

    And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.

    I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth

    I feel much the same way.

    I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.

    This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
    Boris is a bully, serial cheat, proven liar and unlawful in office. Can’t understand why anyone could vote for that.
    Boris is a twit and a liar, a ruthless careerist, and quite amoral. He's not a nice man. Albeit clever.

    But Corbyn is in a different league. How can you not see that? Corbyn is dangerously stupid and nasty, and a friend of very very evil people, who he enables. He has actual Stalinists for ALLIES and COLLEAGUES.

    Casino is right, this is our version of Chirac versus Le Pen, the fraud versus the fascist. Boris is the fraud, Corbyn is the fascist.

    It should be no contest.

    Johnson is an idiot, Corbyn is a useful idiot.
    So why should the voters give any of them power?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Guido saying 30
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    I think it simpler than that. She simply campaigns on what she believes, whatever other people think. Something that she has in common with both Jezza and Maggie. It contrasts well with more flexible politicians.
    You mean Boris? So flexible that a principle has never occurred to him?
  • Jonathan said:

    The PB Tories have gone wobbly again. They’ll be back to their pompous best in seven minutes.

    You’re a good guy, Jonathan. I like you and I wish the Labour Party had more like you.

    However, one of things that drives you is a pathological detestation of the Conservative Party, your lifelong enemy.

    It is so obvious how this comes out in your most partisan form, and I know it isn’t really you.

    You’re a thinker.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    A very brave and unequivocal call by RCS, very much at odds with the body of opinion expressed here on PB.com this evening and indeed throughout the day.
    I rather liked his final little piece of arrogance when he added "Save this post", as if to remind us ... "lest you forget just how brilliant I am."
    I think it's called 'wishful thinking'

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)

    The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.

    The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.

    The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.

    Save this post.

    That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
    I have no idea why Jo Swinson, having realised she was struggling to gain traction in this election, decided the answer was gender self I/D.
    Most of Swinson's tactical calls have been wrong (to put it kindly), but transphobia is a massive issue for a certain demographic. I reckon it's the most binary divide in Britain today apart from, you know, that whole Brexit thing.

    Much of the PB commentariat could largely be construed as the polar opposite of that demographic. And that's fine. But don't doubt that there are lots of people out there for who this is a huge thing.
    It's a huge issue in youth political circles. Outside it's almost not spoken about.
    Nope, it's more than that. If you work in the tech/startup sphere you most probably know someone trans. I'm only tangentially connected with that world and know at least three.
    That is a very, very small world. And a very niche one.
    I know a trans woman and she never posts about it.in fact I only noticed she had transitioned because she was wearing make up.
    It's the small world that's increasingly running the big one. ;)
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    And the pound plunges a bit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    edited December 2019
    Some saying 30, saying 42.
This discussion has been closed.