Aren't tactical voters sawing off the branch on which they sit?
Why on earth should the Labour party come round to changing the electoral system if LibDems are willing to vote Labour tactically?
LibDems should not vote tactically, otherwise the system will never change.
The LibDem should say, "We will withdraw our candidates from 100 seats and urge our voters to vote tactically if you, the Labour party, do likewise for 50 seats".
Tactical voting without a quid pro quo is giving away something for nothing.
Otherwise, the LibDems will continue to see their Labour MP pleading for their tactical vote, election after election.
I’m even less inclined to believe his previous tweets given his latest one . He needs to STFU ! Apologies for my bad language but really he’s seriously beginning to grate now.
Looks as if he has done something we have been unable to do
Unite us
True . Finally someone manages to unite the warring factions ! Seriously though this forum is really not that acrimonious , it’s quite funny at times with some decent lighthearted banter .
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
Swinson is brand new and will be given time to grow into the job. The mistakes are strategic - getting carried away after the Euros and planning a campaign expecting to be about to sweep the country. Adopting a revoke policy that wouldn’t attract a single extra voter but would repel many soft remainers. Appointing the same guy to manage the campaign that made such a shambles of 2017. Making idiots of themselves by abusing OGH’s permission to use his reputation to send absurd voter letters to no-hope constituencies up and down the land. Claiming to be focused on denying Bozo his majority yet even today directing activists toward seats where we are up against Labour remainers. Etc.
Like Malcolm Tucker says: if we fire you now it looks like *we* fucked up.
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
Some chatter on social media that the Scot Tories fancy it in Lanark and Hamilton East Hyper marginal SNP seat, dyor
Loads of SLAB vote to squeeze with only 350 votes between 1st and third last time. If there is to be a Con gain in Scotland it has to be a prospect from what it looks like on paper.
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.
That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.
Clearly you are attempting to talk the lib dems down part of the silent conspiracy that has been in play from both lab Tory and con from day one not sure why you’re bothering unless you resent having your council seat taken from you.
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
I've been to Romania and I lived in Egypt for a few months.
The NHS might be a bit wobbly, but it is infinitely superior to anything in either of those countries, especially Egypt, one of the poorest countries in the Arab world
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
Hello Byronic. Did you change your investment profile?
Looks like odds on LAB/SNP majority happy days for Corbynistas Smithson/TSE/Meeks/Cyclefree.
I have a small investment property in Luxulyan. Would you like to move in?
How relieved are Tories going to be to see their projected majority falling based on polling done some days in advance of polling day, and with the models self-confessed weakness in picking up seat-specific campaigning?
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
If you keep up with these hysterical posts so will I !
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
x-rays they already have in the drawer before you turn up don’t count.
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty. The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.
30?
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.
If the majority is 30 then it's not a hung Parliament - by definition.
I think he means that if the Tories are on course for a majority of 30 if the election was today then, given Labour are closing the gap, it will probably be a hung parliament when the election is on Thursday.
For the record, I don't think that. It's just my reading of what he means.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.
That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.
Clearly you are attempting to talk the lib dems down part of the silent conspiracy that has been in play from both lab Tory and con from day one not sure why you’re bothering unless you resent having your council seat taken from you.
I have been selling LD seat numbers for the last fortnight as you will see from my posts here but have now cashed out at a large profit following the last You Gov MRP and just left with some small constituency bets.Therefore I don't care from a betting point of view. I knew this election was not going to be good for the LDs and was just trying to give you guys the heads up on this site. No one really listened though.
The Focaldata MRP is really weird. They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
Yeah, there's a bunch of very odd results. Another one is the tories winning Stoke Central, but labour retaining the neighboring Newcastle-under-Lyme with an increased majority (both are heavily leave).
That is better, a majority of Forty or Fifty. The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.
30?
If it is only 30 then it will be probably another Hung Parliament, since the direction will be too heavy in favour of Labour.
The direction of travel was the opposite until Monday - but who the fuck really knows? It's far too close for comfort for us Tories, but I'm strangely calmer now than I have been for the last 2 days.
A majority of ONE stops Corbyn becoming PM, sees Brexit over the line (for now), and that's enough for most of us.
I will happily swap you stories of my experience of the NHS over the last few years and it has nothing to do with funding. Dad was stuck in a hospital for 3 weeks as he couldn`t go back to his care home as a hospital discharged someone to the home with Norovirus shutting the home for 3 weeks. Mum was stuck in a bed over a weekend as a care home wouldn`t take patients while there was no GP surgery at the weekend. Mum twice was stuck because hospital transport failed to turn up. If an elderly patient needs Social care if its not been arranged by a Friday lunchtime forget it will be Monday before they go and they wonder why there is a shortage of beds.
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
I would not wish to share a trench with you.
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.
Hmm - Grieve may only be about 10% behind now in Beaconfield, according to this. That may be the reason for the peculiar hustings cancellation by the Tories mentioned in the Indy.
The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
The Focaldata MRP is really weird. They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
Yeah, there's a bunch of very odd results. Another one is the tories winning Stoke Central, but labour retaining the neighboring Newcastle-under-Lyme with an increased majority (both are heavily leave).
The Conservatives at 60% in the Dudley seats but Bassetlaw neck and neck ? It's useless in individual seats.
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
The taxi drivers are naughty little fibbers.
Probably true, if they mean "if you pay cash USD and aren't fussy about the qualifications of the radiographer or safety of the equipment."
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
I would not wish to share a trench with you.
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.
I don't think anyone thinks he is storming to victory. It's just whether the Tories can trip enough enough for him to cobble together a majority. I don't think he can, but if headline predictions are in the 10-30 majority range, that looks doable for him if he outperforms the polls even a little.
The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Tory overall maj at 1.39 is back where it was before the Survation outlier on Sunday
The fundamentals haven't changed. If the Tories hold the 317 seats they captured last time then they only need nine gains for an overall majority.
If the actual Conservative lead in vote share is only 3.5-4% then that should be enough to do the job. Every poll of the campaign has had a lead of at least 6% and the average is more like 10%.
Unless there has been a massive polling failure, then a Hung Parliament would therefore seem to require some combination of the following to be true:
1. Spectacular collapse in Tory polling lead in the final surveys due tomorrow 2. Hugely efficient LD vote picking off a string of Tory Southern Remain seats whilst simultaneously losing deposits almost everywhere else 3. In the event of a tight finish elsewhere, a Tory implosion in Scotland
For 1. we'll have to wait and see; there have been a couple of polls with Labour on 35/36% recently, but others still had them in the low 30s. No consistent and dramatic narrowing yet evident
There's evidence from the MRP and some constituency polls of isolated strong performances by the LDs, though even amongst the constituency surveys results have been decidedly mixed. The three sets of London numbers from Deltapoll yesterday were uniformly discouraging to the yellows. So not much evidence of point 2., either
The mood music from Scotland, the MRP and the Scotland-only polls are all reasonably encouraging for the Tories. They might hold their current numbers, they might go down to about eight, but a wipeout seems improbable based on available evidence
In short, if the MRP comes out with a number something like Con Maj 30 then I'd be inclined to believe it, and it would certainly seem unlikely that a margin that large would be wiped out in 48 hours.
The Focaldata MRP is really weird. They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.
Bolsover Tory Gain
Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???
It’s not designed to be a representation of reality it is to power this groups view of who you should tactically vote for to beat the tories, these sites have been a scourge on this election campaign.
The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
The Focaldata MRP is really weird. They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.
Bolsover Tory Gain
Bolsover Skinner maj 1,000. But CON gain Derby N, Ashfield and just maybe Derby S???
It’s not designed to be a representation of reality it is to power this groups view of who you should tactically vote for to beat the tories, these sites have been a scourge on this election campaign.
I tend to agree, the Focaldata MRP based on it's results by constituency does not look credible.
I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
The Conservative lead will be at least ten points, and I would be very surprised if the majority is less than 80. (I reckon the Conservatives will beat 1987, but fall short of 1983.)
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Save this post.
That is my view, more or less. Bollocks to Brexit and gender self I/D are unpopular positions with the voters.
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
I would not wish to share a trench with you.
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.
I think the concern Byronic has is that Boris’s are also starting to circle the urinal in the same gents.
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
Swinson is brand new and will be given time to grow into the job. The mistakes are strategic - getting carried away after the Euros and planning a campaign expecting to be about to sweep the country. Adopting a revoke policy that wouldn’t attract a single extra voter but would repel many soft remainers. Appointing the same guy to manage the campaign that made such a shambles of 2017. Making idiots of themselves by abusing OGH’s permission to use his reputation to send absurd voter letters to no-hope constituencies up and down the land. Claiming to be focused on denying Bozo his majority yet even today directing activists toward seats where we are up against Labour remainers. Etc.
I agree with all of that apart from the first sentence. If Swinson loses her seat she certainly won’t be given time; she may not anyway.
In retrospect the error was possibly electing a wannabe PM with government experience, when what the Lib Dems needed was a punchy insurgent. Ed Davey is the least likely insurgent in history... which is why it should have been Layla Moran. And yes, pun intentional.
It’s remarkable that Moran’s seat, previously the most marginal of all, is now generally accepted to be a safe seat while Swinson’s is on a knife edge. (Some of the blame for that is on the local Conservative association who selected an absolute disaster of a candidate; all the more remarkable in that they turned down the one Conservative politician in the whole of Oxfordshire who I think could have given Layla a run for her money.)
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
Re NHS - my stepmother has been waiting for an x-ray result for over two weeks now. Two separate conversations with cab drivers - one Romanian, one Egyptian - and both told me they could get x-ray results in their home countries in 5 minutes.
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
x-rays they already have in the drawer before you turn up don’t count.
I had a filling re-done last week and the (private) dentists did four x-rays in three minutes and had them all up on screen thirty seconds later. My 3yo subluxated his elbow two months ago and (after an admittedly long A&E wait post-triage) he had an NHS x-ray done and viewed so quickly I forgot to ask for a copy for his bedroom wall. Doc, happy there was no fracture, popped it back in there and then.
Comments
Why on earth should the Labour party come round to changing the electoral system if LibDems are willing to vote Labour tactically?
LibDems should not vote tactically, otherwise the system will never change.
The LibDem should say, "We will withdraw our candidates from 100 seats and urge our voters to vote tactically if you, the Labour party, do likewise for 50 seats".
Tactical voting without a quid pro quo is giving away something for nothing.
Otherwise, the LibDems will continue to see their Labour MP pleading for their tactical vote, election after election.
Or 73 years if you count 1910-1983.
Basically it's close for the last person to remember how bad they where when in power, to have died off.
So it could be sometime by the end of the 21st century.
Hyper marginal SNP seat, dyor
Also my father - suffering from cancer and other ailments - was 10 days ago discharged from hospital only to record a temperature of 39.8 two hours later. And promptly had to return to the same hospital the very same day.
24-30 is what I predicted at the very beginning of the campaign (i.e a small majority) but right now it feels far far far too close.
Labour is fast catching up, the boy-on-the-floor has yet to impact the polls, it needs the tiniest swing for Boris to be unseated by a quasi-Islamist Marxist Jew-hater.
I need heroin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictions
The NHS might be a bit wobbly, but it is infinitely superior to anything in either of those countries, especially Egypt, one of the poorest countries in the Arab world
Speaking of other MRPs, I missed that Datapraxis did their version 3 days ago (maj 38).
Looks like odds on LAB/SNP majority happy days for Corbynistas Smithson/TSE/Meeks/Cyclefree.
I have a small investment property in Luxulyan. Would you like to move in?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
They have the Conservatives doing better in London than in the North.
They have the Conservatives of being in danger in Cumbria but IDS being comfortably ahead.
Good evening, everyone.
For the record, I don't think that. It's just my reading of what he means.
As always, so much comes down to local issues, tactical voting on the day, and turnout.
And, as @isam quite rightly said, it may be the YouGov MRP in GE2017 just got lucky once.
A majority of ONE stops Corbyn becoming PM, sees Brexit over the line (for now), and that's enough for most of us.
I'll just wait for the YouGov...
It’s in everyone’s interests for Boris to win big, even the Labour Party as it’s their only route back to sanity and Government.
https://twitter.com/AaronBell4NUL/status/1204448310666387457
Hallam Lab hold!
I'm just a bit bemused at the way some people seem to think Corbyn is storming to victory, when his ratings are in the toilet.
He also thinks Raab's in trouble.
https://twitter.com/paulhilder/status/1204445438071517184
It does illustrate that the modelling - which is as much art as science - is as important as the polling.
#goaaron
The Labour Party will find itself with a seat total very similar to the Conservatives in 1997. While they'll hold up well in dense city centres and university seats, they'll do poorly in their traditional heartlands. Lots of smaller Leave-leaning towns are going to go Blue.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
The SNP benefits in 2019 from Lab-to-SNP switchers, and Unionist tactical voting unwinding thanks to Brexit... but this is probably a one-off. With Brexit behind us, Unionist tactical voting will return in 2024.
Save this post.
It's useless in individual seats.
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/why-as-a-lifelong-labour-voter-it-is-your-moral-duty-to-vote-conservative-20191209191606
The California Sun?!
If the actual Conservative lead in vote share is only 3.5-4% then that should be enough to do the job. Every poll of the campaign has had a lead of at least 6% and the average is more like 10%.
Unless there has been a massive polling failure, then a Hung Parliament would therefore seem to require some combination of the following to be true:
1. Spectacular collapse in Tory polling lead in the final surveys due tomorrow
2. Hugely efficient LD vote picking off a string of Tory Southern Remain seats whilst simultaneously losing deposits almost everywhere else
3. In the event of a tight finish elsewhere, a Tory implosion in Scotland
For 1. we'll have to wait and see; there have been a couple of polls with Labour on 35/36% recently, but others still had them in the low 30s. No consistent and dramatic narrowing yet evident
There's evidence from the MRP and some constituency polls of isolated strong performances by the LDs, though even amongst the constituency surveys results have been decidedly mixed. The three sets of London numbers from Deltapoll yesterday were uniformly discouraging to the yellows. So not much evidence of point 2., either
The mood music from Scotland, the MRP and the Scotland-only polls are all reasonably encouraging for the Tories. They might hold their current numbers, they might go down to about eight, but a wipeout seems improbable based on available evidence
In short, if the MRP comes out with a number something like Con Maj 30 then I'd be inclined to believe it, and it would certainly seem unlikely that a margin that large would be wiped out in 48 hours.
That’s pretty amazing even allowing for the repeat views .
Does this mean I am immune from banning?!
https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1204464116355805192?s=20
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I think the concern Byronic has is that Boris’s are also starting to circle the urinal in the same gents.
In retrospect the error was possibly electing a wannabe PM with government experience, when what the Lib Dems needed was a punchy insurgent. Ed Davey is the least likely insurgent in history... which is why it should have been Layla Moran. And yes, pun intentional.
It’s remarkable that Moran’s seat, previously the most marginal of all, is now generally accepted to be a safe seat while Swinson’s is on a knife edge. (Some of the blame for that is on the local Conservative association who selected an absolute disaster of a candidate; all the more remarkable in that they turned down the one Conservative politician in the whole of Oxfordshire who I think could have given Layla a run for her money.)