So there is not much change, in line with the non movement in polls for the past 2 weeks.
I have to say I'm haven't been quite convinced of Yougov's MRP this time round, but nor do I think we're already nailed on for a hung parliament.
Personally, I find some of the results surprising. Most of the con/lib marginals are in line with constituency polling when available and make sense given the majorities and remain vote (I'm just a bit surprised the swing is so big in St Albans), but in most labour leave seats the swing to the tories is much smaller than the constituency polls have shown, or what you'd expect based on the terrible retention rate of labour leave voters (50% according to the latest Deltapoll iirc).
It'll be interesting to see which is right on polling day.
Remember that the MRP’s weakness, as YouGov themselves explain in their blurb, is dealing with very localised campaigns. As the LDs have been pushed back to targeting more narrowly, you’d expect the model to get less accurate in forecasting their result.
If the LD get 12% the customary number of seats for a Liberal party on that level is in the low teens.
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
If the job is trashing the LibDems, "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson will have had a cracking first effort......
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worse it will be but not worse than today's weather.
The French getting the worst of the weather is *always* good news.
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
Yes, the Brexit Party op failed. That's why Nigel Farage is talking about spoiling ballots. He's not saying every possible switcher from Labour should spoil their ballot rather than vote Tory even when a BXP candidate is on offer, but he is saying to those who are reluctant to go the whole hog that they should consider going halfway and spoiling their ballot instead. It's like encouraging a child to eat their peas.
The Brexit Party winning the Euros got May sacked, the second referendum/revoke tide turned, and a Tory leader who has got Brexit almost over the line installed. People who wanted to Remain now feasting on crumbs of comfort by seeing Farage marginalised are welcome to them!
Should the Conservatives win on Thursday and Brexit goes ahead as planned, then there's a strong argument to be made that Farage is the most consequential figure in British politics of the 21st Century, to date.
I seek to comment not on the desirability or otherwise of this situation, but merely to suggest that it is the case.
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
I expect him to hold, his seat was one of the very few in the north to have voted Remain.
Yes, the Brexit Party op failed. That's why Nigel Farage is talking about spoiling ballots. He's not saying every possible switcher from Labour should spoil their ballot rather than vote Tory even when a BXP candidate is on offer, but he is saying to those who are reluctant to go the whole hog that they should consider going halfway and spoiling their ballot instead. It's like encouraging a child to eat their peas.
The Brexit Party winning the Euros got May sacked, the second referendum/revoke tide turned, and a Tory leader who has got Brexit almost over the line installed. People who wanted to Remain now feasting on crumbs of comfort by seeing Farage marginalised are welcome to them!
Should the Conservatives win on Thursday and Brexit goes ahead as planned, then there's a strong argument to be made that Farage is the most consequential figure in British politics of the 21st Century, to date.
I seek to comment not on the desirability or otherwise of this situation, but merely to suggest that it is the case.
Farage was just leader of the party advocating the popular cause of EU exit, rather than a consequential figure himself. I can't think of anyone who decided they wanted to exit the EU because they liked Nigel Farage. He and Ukip succeeded because of the intrinsic and long-standing popularity of Brexit, and because of PR in European elections, which isn't due to anybody in British politics in particular.
Huge regional differences in postal voting. North East had over a quarter of votes done by post even in 2010. That trend has continued. It's quite possible that we'll see wild swings in the Northeast and the target seats for the Tories doing well.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I can see them being squeezed into single figures now. Their Scotland seats all look vulnerable as do Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Carshalton.If they have a lot of near misses in the South East there wont be much left.Even Richmond doesn't seem as certain as it once looked.
Evidence please
Focaldata's MRP has them losing Carshalton, Eastbourne, North Norfolk and Caithness, with Swinson herself clinging on to her seat by only 1%.
I have other reservations about their results, but it's very close to what Yougov's MRP said. They just have them barely taking a couple more tory seats than Yougov did, like Winchester or Cities of London and Westminster (doubt the latter though given yesterday's poll...), and if the libdems perform a tiny bit worse than expected they could be at 8 seats or below under that model (they only have Richmond, Oxford West, Twickenham, Kingston, Bath and Orkney as safe seats).
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
Exactly my own experience with my sister here in Wales. After 2 years of suffering with cancer she was deteriorating rapidly and had a DNR. I was summoned to the nursing home as she was sinking rapidly and it was clear she had only a short time left
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
Sorry to hear about your sister.
Some of your account brings back memories of the endless cancelled appointments often at the last minute, weeks to get a GP appointment etc.
Then after numerous cancellations go to LLandough hospital for the first Chemo treatment & are then told it can't happen because no pre-treatment has been done (It's never happened before was the Consultant's excuse). And then resume your place in the queue..
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I can see them being squeezed into single figures now. Their Scotland seats all look vulnerable as do Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Carshalton.If they have a lot of near misses in the South East there wont be much left.Even Richmond doesn't seem as certain as it once looked.
Evidence please
I think you will see it in the MRP. Tories still campaigning hard in Richmond ,they haven't given up.Odds tightening and SNP increasingly bullish in the 3 Scottish seats( other than O&S).The London polls yesterday showed the LDs droppping back. The evidence is there.
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
It's a Remain-leaning area - but only by about 53:47 according to estimates. The current iteration of the MRP has the seat as leaning Lib Dem (5% vote share margin based on central estimates,) and the 2017 result was closer than that of course. The Brexit Party is a complicating factor this time, but I'd imagine that the local Tories will be fancying their chances nonetheless.
Indeed and things could be very different this time if there is more tactical voting
Or less tactical voting. And there's the rub; it's impossible to tell how much tactical voting is actually tactical.
When I lived in Cheltenham I met loads of Labour supporters who voted LibDem because Labour didn't stand a chance. If they had all voted Labour then they might have actually been the main challengers to the Tories and the LibDems would have tactically voted for them.
Probably the most consequential figure of C21 politics is Cameron who didn't have to push so quickly on austerity, but did anyway, and his choice brought about Corbyn, Brexit, and all the rest. You could also argue Blair but it looks more like Cameron at the moment.
The 'experts' who think its odd the SNP didn't focus solely on Brexit need to work out why the SNP campaign bombed in 2017 when they did exactly that.
The current dual message is like a knocking up your core vote strategy. Mention Indy first to fire up Yessers who Did Not Vote in 2017. Then switch to an anti Boris and Brexit message to lock down the anti-Con vote.
This is so blindingly obvious I cannot take the utterances of the people in the article seriously.
Alistair , It is the SUN, comic singers at best. I see also Fitalaugh has reappeared at election time, CCHQ must be struggling when they are bringing out the old Dad's Army mob.
Hi MalcolmG, glad to see you are still in feisty and acerbic form as ever. I rarely post these days, but I do still follow PB.com, just prefer to lurk rather than post very often outside elections. I finally caught the political bug and started to do some GE/Holyrood betting from 2015 onwards with some modest success after so many years of following the expertise and tips of the regular punters on here.
Good to see you Fitalass and glad to see you take my comments in the way they are intended, just for laughs. Many on here take it too seriously and miss intended humour. I hope you are well and enjoying life.
All well with us, although life in general feels a lot quieter now all three of our lads have flown the nest. I do miss that everyday hectic buzz and noise of family life. Hope you too are well and enjoying life in your patch of Scotland.
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
I expect him to hold, his seat was one of the very few in the north to have voted Remain.
You may be right, but it is an unusual outcrop of LD support surroundd by blue.
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
And out in the villages to the south there seem to be a lot more blue posters than normal.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
Which cruise ship is that if you do not mind telling me ?
P&O Ventura. They are supposed to be returning via ports in Portugal and Spain, which have been cancelled. Mum says she will be getting some money back. I told her having longer in the canaries sunshine and a refund is a result.
I didn't realise that was 2017 until after I'd had a heart attack!
Had a heart attack? Head up to your local A&E, if it ain't closed by now. Please turn up with a couple of coats or preferably a sleeping bag. They may thrombolyse you by Xmas, if they manage to find you under that pile of furniture. In the meanwhile vote Brexit.
Don't be silly, @Charles will be making his own private arrangements.
That's the thing. When your myocardium goes on the blink, the best place is the emergency cardiac catheter lab. In Leicester the ambos take you straight there, bypassing ED, and often having an emergency stent and thrombosis within 20 min.
Try to get that service in the private sector and you will be telling your tale to St Peter!
Got cancer? No problem, grab a couple of coats and lie down. Whilst our in house clown gets the oven ready brexit done
My late sister had the misfortune to have cancer in Labour's NHS service in Wales, where the level of incompetence from Consultant downwards was breath taking,
Exactly my own experience with my sister here in Wales. After 2 years of suffering with cancer she was deteriorating rapidly and had a DNR. I was summoned to the nursing home as she was sinking rapidly and it was clear she had only a short time left
The nursing sister repeatedly phoned our surgery for a doctor only to receive an answer phone message that they were closed for staff training (a thursday afternoon)
In the end she called an ambulance who confirmed she was failing and asked me as her POA what to do. I did not feel qualified and wanted my sister to pass away in the nursing home in accordance with her wishes but the paramedics said they would take her to hospital but the decision was mine. I was not at all happy but relented for her to go to hospital where she died five hours later
I then had to perform a formal identification of her body and provide a police statement
And all because the doctors closed their surgery and no cover was available anywhere else. Glan Clwyd hospital has been failing for years and is in special measures
Sorry to hear about your sister.
Some of your account brings back memories of the endless cancelled appointments often at the last minute, weeks to get a GP appointment etc.
Then after numerous cancellations go to LLandough hospital for the first Chemo treatment & are then told it can't happen because no pre-treatment has been done (It's never happened before was the Consultant's excuse). And then resume your place in the queue..
Yes, the Brexit Party op failed. That's why Nigel Farage is talking about spoiling ballots. He's not saying every possible switcher from Labour should spoil their ballot rather than vote Tory even when a BXP candidate is on offer, but he is saying to those who are reluctant to go the whole hog that they should consider going halfway and spoiling their ballot instead. It's like encouraging a child to eat their peas.
The Brexit Party winning the Euros got May sacked, the second referendum/revoke tide turned, and a Tory leader who has got Brexit almost over the line installed. People who wanted to Remain now feasting on crumbs of comfort by seeing Farage marginalised are welcome to them!
The ERG and to some extent Tory constituency chairmen's unwillingness to countenance a Theresa May arrangement with Labour that would have involved effectively staying in the CU and SM was what got May sacked.
I wouldn't say Boris Johnson has "got Brexit almost over the line". You write as if he's a rugby player who has done some spectacular and forceful moves, beaten player after player, and here he is, almost about to score a memorable try. But he hasn't succeeded at anything, for all his talk of a new "golden age". I'm sure his record of failures in the Commons (number of things he has failed at, divided by the number he has attempted) surpasses any previous prime minister's for a century at least.
Yes, the Brexit Party op failed. That's why Nigel Farage is talking about spoiling ballots. He's not saying every possible switcher from Labour should spoil their ballot rather than vote Tory even when a BXP candidate is on offer, but he is saying to those who are reluctant to go the whole hog that they should consider going halfway and spoiling their ballot instead. It's like encouraging a child to eat their peas.
The Brexit Party winning the Euros got May sacked, the second referendum/revoke tide turned, and a Tory leader who has got Brexit almost over the line installed. People who wanted to Remain now feasting on crumbs of comfort by seeing Farage marginalised are welcome to them!
Should the Conservatives win on Thursday and Brexit goes ahead as planned, then there's a strong argument to be made that Farage is the most consequential figure in British politics of the 21st Century, to date.
I seek to comment not on the desirability or otherwise of this situation, but merely to suggest that it is the case.
There have been other personalities like Farage but all of them were MP's. Here is the list of people who changed British History without being PM: Paddy Ashdown, he destroyed the Liberal centre. David Owen, he stopped Foot from becoming PM. Enoch Powell, he overthrew 2 PM's over Immigration and Europe. Joseph Chamberlain, he split the Liberals and the Conservatives twice over Ireland and Protectionism.
Indeed and things could be very different this time if there is more tactical voting
Or less tactical voting.
Last time Lib Dems could tactically vote Labour because they didn't understand what an antisemite Corbyn was. This time though they are better informed.
Good news weather wise. The newest predictions have shifted the worst part of the storm to France. The more south you are the worst it will be but not worse than today's weather.
Today is diabolical in the south
One of the worst days I can remember for weeks. It has rained all day long with driving gale force winds. Hideous.
And Speedy is talking complete rubbish. Thursday's weather is awful. Heavy rain across the south and a heavy band into the north after lunch which will turn to sleet and snow even to low levels.
My mother texted me to say she is stuck in the canaries as her cruise ship has broken down. I told her not to be in any hurry to sail back north.
Which cruise ship is that if you do not mind telling me ?
P&O Ventura. They are supposed to be returning via ports in Portugal and Spain, which have been cancelled. Mum says she will be getting some money back. I told her having longer in the canaries sunshine and a refund is a result.
The Labour shadow minister's Tory friend is getting WAAY to hard a press.
Look at it this way. He has info given to him, that told him Corbyn was not just shit, but a danger to the country, and Labour ministers were secretly admitting this,
Was he meant to sit on that, because mates? Or should he do the nation a service, and sacrifice a friendship for the greater good?
The wanker here is Ashworth. A man prepared to campaign for a leader he knows is unfit, and a menace to our security
It doesn’t sound like MRP will make pleasant reading for the LDs.
Money on Swinson being next leader to quit? Corbyn might avoid going immediately (perhaps a pledge to quit before next conference?) whereas if it’s a poor LD night Swinson could go quickly.
I’m not saying incredibly likely. I think she’ll probably on balance get another chance given she’s only just taken the job, but there might be value there?
Swinson is brand new and will be given time to grow into the job. The mistakes are strategic - getting carried away after the Euros and planning a campaign expecting to be about to sweep the country. Adopting a revoke policy that wouldn’t attract a single extra voter but would repel many soft remainers. Appointing the same guy to manage the campaign that made such a shambles of 2017. Making idiots of themselves by abusing OGH’s permission to use his reputation to send absurd voter letters to no-hope constituencies up and down the land. Claiming to be focused on denying Bozo his majority yet even today directing activists toward seats where we are up against Labour remainers. Etc.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I can see them being squeezed into single figures now. Their Scotland seats all look vulnerable as do Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Carshalton.If they have a lot of near misses in the South East there wont be much left.Even Richmond doesn't seem as certain as it once looked.
Evidence please
I think you will see it in the MRP. Tories still campaigning hard in Richmond ,they haven't given up.Odds tightening and SNP increasingly bullish in the 3 Scottish seats( other than O&S).The London polls yesterday showed the LDs droppping back. The evidence is there.
The model has Caithness and Edin W as too close to call and Jo Swinson not that far clear of the SNP either. On a bad night, Sheffield Hallam could end up as the only LD seat between Orkney and Oxford.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
The MRP says that Plaid, the Greens and the Lib Dems have something important in common (apart from the Remain Alliance): one safe seat each. But, in fairness, there's also a collection of likelies on top of that.
I'd expect them to do a lot better than one, of course. I still think that the prediction I ventured a few weeks ago of 20-22 seats is achievable, but at the upper end of possible outcomes as things stand.
To qualify as a record drubbing, the Lib Dems would need to go below eight. The record low for the old Liberal Party was six.
I can see them being squeezed into single figures now. Their Scotland seats all look vulnerable as do Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Carshalton.If they have a lot of near misses in the South East there wont be much left.Even Richmond doesn't seem as certain as it once looked.
Evidence please
Focaldata's MRP has them losing Carshalton, Eastbourne, North Norfolk and Caithness, with Swinson herself clinging on to her seat by only 1%.
I have other reservations about their results, but it's very close to what Yougov's MRP said. They just have them barely taking a couple more tory seats than Yougov did, like Winchester or Cities of London and Westminster (doubt the latter though given yesterday's poll...), and if the libdems perform a tiny bit worse than expected they could be at 8 seats or below under that model (they only have Richmond, Oxford West, Twickenham, Kingston, Bath and Orkney as safe seats).
LD under/overs is 18.5 with bet365. I filled my ISA just before the election was called and don't have a great deal of skin in this game, but I am on LD under 36.5 at 5/6 for a few quid.
So there is not much change, in line with the non movement in polls for the past 2 weeks.
I have to say I'm haven't been quite convinced of Yougov's MRP this time round, but nor do I think we're already nailed on for a hung parliament.
Personally, I find some of the results surprising. Most of the con/lib marginals are in line with constituency polling when available and make sense given the majorities and remain vote (I'm just a bit surprised the swing is so big in St Albans), but in most labour leave seats the swing to the tories is much smaller than the constituency polls have shown, or what you'd expect based on the terrible retention rate of labour leave voters (50% according to the latest Deltapoll iirc).
It'll be interesting to see which is right on polling day.
Remember that the MRP’s weakness, as YouGov themselves explain in their blurb, is dealing with very localised campaigns. As the LDs have been pushed back to targeting more narrowly, you’d expect the model to get less accurate in forecasting their result.
If the LD get 12% the customary number of seats for a Liberal party on that level is in the low teens.
Whereas in any mature representative democracy it should be about 80.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
And out in the villages to the south there seem to be a lot more blue posters than normal.
Yes, true, but Lancaster will probably go Cat, and Morecambe will probably stay Con.
I would suggest people remember the MRP is a model based on polling data, not constituency level polling, not an exit poll and certainly not the result.
Its effectiveness is giving a better estimate of the big picture result than a single poll, not in predicting individual seats. Localised tactical voting isn't picked up.
The Labour shadow minister's Tory friend is getting WAAY to hard a press.
Look at it this way. He has info given to him, that told him Corbyn was not just shit, but a danger to the country, and Labour ministers were secretly admitting this,
Was he meant to sit on that, because mates? Or should he do the nation a service, and sacrifice a friendship for the greater good?
The wanker here is Ashworth. A man prepared to campaign for a leader he knows is unfit, and a menace to our security
Do you often tape friends conversations with you ? I’m not defending Ashworth who is an idiot but equally his so called friend is pondscum !
Whilst we are swapping NHS stories, I have one from 2005, when Labour were in charge.
My Mum went into hospital because of pain she was having. When we went there we found out that it was cancer. She had been in for checks not that long beforehand (having had a melanoma removed the year before). The doctor was looking at the results of those checks, and was asking the other staff why it hadn't been picked up. It turned out that they hadn't been dealt with properly.
It was probably too late for her anyway, but you never know.
The NHS isn't perfect whoever is running it. I agree with previous comments that it needs the politics taking out of it, and the emotion. We need to consider all the options, and be prepared to make difficult (and sometimes unpopular) decisions to get the best results.
Using the NHS as a political football isn't helping anyone.
A politically savvy friend of mine just made a brilliant and encouraging point
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women
Leaving aside the fact that you're wildly breaking character at this point, the number of women who have slept with Boris Johnson is drawn from a limited pool of people and far outweighed by the number of women who haven't slept with him, and by the number of women who wouldn't sleep with him if you'd put a gun to their heads. Stop being silly
I do wonder if Tim Farron will survive, the usual display of banners seem somewhat subdued this time, the A6 North of Milnthorpe is not quite as heavily bannered this time.
And out in the villages to the south there seem to be a lot more blue posters than normal.
Yes, true, but Lancaster will probably go Cat, and Morecambe will probably stay Con.
Yes, I agree with both of those. Lancaster might be closer than expected if the Greens continue their push from the Euros but I've seen no evidence of them working the area that hard.
A politically savvy friend of mine just made a brilliant and encouraging point
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women
Haven’t you looked at the polls? If Bozo wins, it'll be on the back of male voters. Ultimately it’ll be on all of our backs, but it appears to be men who are more inclined to be duped by his shtick. Women are better able to spot a fraud when they see one.
I’m even less inclined to believe his previous tweets given his latest one . He needs to STFU ! Apologies for my bad language but really he’s seriously beginning to grate now.
Whilst we are swapping NHS stories, I have one from 2005, when Labour were in charge.
My Mum went into hospital because of pain she was having. When we went there we found out that it was cancer. She had been in for checks not that long beforehand (having had a melanoma removed the year before). The doctor was looking at the results of those checks, and was asking the other staff why it hadn't been picked up. It turned out that they hadn't been dealt with properly.
It was probably too late for her anyway, but you never know.
The NHS isn't perfect whoever is running it. I agree with previous comments that it needs the politics taking out of it, and the emotion. We need to consider all the options, and be prepared to make difficult (and sometimes unpopular) decisions to get the best results.
Using the NHS as a political football isn't helping anyone.
Agree, take the politics out, End of wishful thinking.
I would be opposing the LDs in every seat now. They could be looking at almost a wipe out I fancy.
They'd have to be pretty unlucky to increase their total vote count by 50+% and see an almost total wipeout.
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.
That would be almost a wipe out wouldn't it? 12 per cent plus is not a given either- we have already had polls at lower levels and there is still the potential last minute squeeze to come.
The Labour shadow minister's Tory friend is getting WAAY to hard a press.
Look at it this way. He has info given to him, that told him Corbyn was not just shit, but a danger to the country, and Labour ministers were secretly admitting this,
Was he meant to sit on that, because mates? Or should he do the nation a service, and sacrifice a friendship for the greater good?
The wanker here is Ashworth. A man prepared to campaign for a leader he knows is unfit, and a menace to our security
Gove and May have that view of Johnson, doesnt stop them supporting him, working for him and pretending he is a great leader.
Ashworth improved in my standing, he admitted on live tv hed been a plonker and did what he could to minimise the damage.
I’m even less inclined to believe his previous tweets given his latest one . He needs to STFU ! Apologies for my bad language but really he’s seriously beginning to grate now.
Looks as if he has done something we have been unable to do
Comments
Will be within 1000 either way..Tom Brakes GOTV has always been fantastic
I seek to comment not on the desirability or otherwise of this situation, but merely to suggest that it is the case.
https://t.co/F1v9HSCTDg https://t.co/utvhwCGTSz
Interesting for those early declarations
I have other reservations about their results, but it's very close to what Yougov's MRP said. They just have them barely taking a couple more tory seats than Yougov did, like Winchester or Cities of London and Westminster (doubt the latter though given yesterday's poll...), and if the libdems perform a tiny bit worse than expected they could be at 8 seats or below under that model (they only have Richmond, Oxford West, Twickenham, Kingston, Bath and Orkney as safe seats).
Sorry to hear about your sister.
Some of your account brings back memories of the endless cancelled appointments often at the last minute, weeks to get a GP appointment etc.
Then after numerous cancellations go to LLandough hospital for the first Chemo treatment & are then told it can't happen because no pre-treatment has been done (It's never happened before was the Consultant's excuse).
And then resume your place in the queue..
Labour's NHS Wales is beyond crap.
When I lived in Cheltenham I met loads of Labour supporters who voted LibDem because Labour didn't stand a chance. If they had all voted Labour then they might have actually been the main challengers to the Tories and the LibDems would have tactically voted for them.
How many self respecting women would admit to fancying Boris, let alone sleeping with him? 10%? 5%?
Yet they DO fancy him and they DO sleep with him. He's probably boffed more women than any PM since Lloyd George.
Ditto the Tories, People won't admit to fancying them, but they will vote for them, in secret. Especially women
*innocent face*
https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1204492100244512769
I wouldn't say Boris Johnson has "got Brexit almost over the line". You write as if he's a rugby player who has done some spectacular and forceful moves, beaten player after player, and here he is, almost about to score a memorable try. But he hasn't succeeded at anything, for all his talk of a new "golden age". I'm sure his record of failures in the Commons (number of things he has failed at, divided by the number he has attempted) surpasses any previous prime minister's for a century at least.
...fuck it, I might as well pick up my pension now...
Here is the list of people who changed British History without being PM:
Paddy Ashdown, he destroyed the Liberal centre.
David Owen, he stopped Foot from becoming PM.
Enoch Powell, he overthrew 2 PM's over Immigration and Europe.
Joseph Chamberlain, he split the Liberals and the Conservatives twice over Ireland and Protectionism.
Last time Lib Dems could tactically vote Labour because they didn't understand what an antisemite Corbyn was. This time though they are better informed.
Look at it this way. He has info given to him, that told him Corbyn was not just shit, but a danger to the country, and Labour ministers were secretly admitting this,
Was he meant to sit on that, because mates? Or should he do the nation a service, and sacrifice a friendship for the greater good?
The wanker here is Ashworth. A man prepared to campaign for a leader he knows is unfit, and a menace to our security
What's the point of the embargo then?
Not impossible, of course, but unlikely.
I'd have thought their Deepest Remainia seats would be pretty safe: Twickenham, Kingston, OxWAb, Bath, plus Orkney & Shetland. I'd also be staggered if they didn't take Richmond Park.
That could be the same Hung Parliament as the last one.
Its effectiveness is giving a better estimate of the big picture result than a single poll, not in predicting individual seats. Localised tactical voting isn't picked up.
Its importance is being overhyped I think.
@joe_armitage
·
8m
The size of the majority rhymes with flirty.
My Mum went into hospital because of pain she was having. When we went there we found out that it was cancer. She had been in for checks not that long beforehand (having had a melanoma removed the year before). The doctor was looking at the results of those checks, and was asking the other staff why it hadn't been picked up. It turned out that they hadn't been dealt with properly.
It was probably too late for her anyway, but you never know.
The NHS isn't perfect whoever is running it. I agree with previous comments that it needs the politics taking out of it, and the emotion. We need to consider all the options, and be prepared to make difficult (and sometimes unpopular) decisions to get the best results.
Using the NHS as a political football isn't helping anyone.
https://twitter.com/joe_armitage/status/1204498642775805955
Clearly 230 maj.
The swingometer says a majority of around 50 if the Conservatives lead by 11%.
Gotta be close
End of wishful thinking.
CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1
CON majority 24
Until we remind PB Tories that thirty is well within MOE.
well, different MRP:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1204498501398388738
A man opines on what women think.....
Ashworth improved in my standing, he admitted on live tv hed been a plonker and did what he could to minimise the damage.
Unite us