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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds remainers more likely than leavers to vote tactically

With tactical voting likely to play a big part on Thursday YouGov has just published some new polling showing that overall a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Hmm.
  • Do we have a reference point of similar questions being asked just before GE2017? If not, then it's impossible to interpret this polling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
    That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?
  • Nigelb said:

    a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
    That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?

    I think Mike means 'not' rather than 'now'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280
    I've reported @BritainErects to Twitter. Don't expect anything will be done about it though.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Just catching up on the days events. The "friend" of Ashworth, is even more of a despicable see you next Tuesday, than the Boris ambush journalist of yesterday.
    How these people sleep at night I have no idea.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Do we have a reference point of similar questions being asked just before GE2017? If not, then it's impossible to interpret this polling.

    Here's a good one from 2015...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/04/icm-phone-poll-naming-clegg-has-him-holding-sheffield-hallam/
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Andy_JS said:

    I've reported @BritainErects to Twitter. Don't expect anything will be done about it though.

    Late to the party so don't know why you did. But it is now user not found.
  • Oooh interesting.
  • O/T

    I'm playing Scrabble with Midge Ure.

    I've got 4 letters left but they mean nothing to me.

    O

    V

    N

    R
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Do we not have any spies working in YouGov? We have plenty of panelists...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Nigelb said:

    a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
    That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?

    I think Mike means 'not' rather than 'now'.
    That would make sense, yes.
    It might be correct to say that a quarter of voters don’t have a first choice, only a last one ?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    So is anti-Labour tactical voting a thing?

    Or not.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Just had a look at some of Shadsy's odds - Corbyn is 3/1 to be PM by the new year. I think the current level of panic is justified.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    They got that out quick, I only did that survey this morning
  • Nigelb said:

    a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice.
    That doesn’t read the way it was supposed to mean, I think ?


    Candidate or parties I like the most 57%.

    Where does the 25% come from?
  • Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...
  • If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

    That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280

    If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

    That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

    Same with me. None of them are very appealing.
  • Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...

    While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Remainers more likely to vote tactically than Leavers? File under no shit, Sherlock.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited December 2019

    If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

    That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

    Yes, surely tactical voting is voting for the one you dislike second least.

    I think they have the question wrong. (Edit/ or the lead has the interpretation wrong)

    It should be vote FOR the one you like the most OR vote AGAINST the one you dislike the most.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    O/T

    I'm playing Scrabble with Midge Ure.

    I've got 4 letters left but they mean nothing to me.

    O

    V

    N

    R

    If there's an "E" free somewhere on the board you might be able to play roven?

    No need to thank me :smiley:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2019
    Is Nigel trying to stop his gravy time stopping? He's making a fortune out of chaos and not Brexiting, after all.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204460345286385664
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Anorak said:

    Is Nigel trying to stop his gravy time stopping?
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204460345286385664

    Mad.
  • Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
  • That question doesn't mean tactical voting, it can equally mean voters viewing the choice as the "lesser evil".

    I don't believe for a second that tactical voting is going to be significant. We hear the same stuff every time.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    camel said:

    So is anti-Labour tactical voting a thing?

    Or not.

    Who can say for certain? My guess: yes, but probably not to any great extent. I would imagine that most LD tactical voting is for Labour against Tory candidates. Only a few seats will provide opportunities for Tory voters whose party can't win to help a Lib Dem against Labour.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...

    While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.
    Given that the choice for most people is one of cow dung or sheeps' droppings most people will be leaving it to the last second to make up their mind.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
    Yup. That's me.
  • IanB2 said:

    They got that out quick, I only did that survey this morning

    Maybe they only asked you? ;)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
    Well yes. But that doesn't mean it's a tactical vote. I think for plenty of people they will vote for 'the candidate they dislike tbe least' - but that candidate may have no hope of winning. The two candidates you dislike the most may, and often will, be the only two in with a chance of winning. Arguably that is why we're in this situation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    That question doesn't mean tactical voting, it can equally mean voters viewing the choice as the "lesser evil".

    I don't believe for a second that tactical voting is going to be significant. We hear the same stuff every time.

    Usually it is significant.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    Odd goings-on in Beaconsfield - I wonder if Grieve could be in with a shout.

    https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...

    While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.
    I wonder whether that may be more prevalent in the South East? Here in the Midlands everyone I speak to know what they are going to do.
  • Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...

    While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.
    “Largely made up their minds”. They won’t be disproportionately moved by that photo or Ashworth.

    And those who have decided are pretty unlikely to switch back to Labour. Once you’ve made the calculation that Brexit>NHS>tribal loyalty it’ll take an awful lo to o come the anecdata we’re hearing about the visceral reaction to Corbyn

    Yes it might shift the occasional voter, but not enough IMO to overcome the story of the past 4 weeks of a consistent gap and a more efficient Tory vote than before.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Odd goings-on in Beaconsfield - I wonder if Grieve could be in with a shout.

    https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584

    Wasn't he miles off in the polling for that constituency?
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
    Well yes. But that doesn't mean it's a tactical vote. I think for plenty of people they will vote for 'the candidate they dislike tbe least' - but that candidate may have no hope of winning. The two candidates you dislike the most may, and often will, be the only two in with a chance of winning. Arguably that is why we're in this situation.
    I agree it’s not necessarily tactical, though it may be. It is, however, different from an endorsement.

    One substantial risk for the Conservatives is that if they are perceived to have a good chance of an overall majority, many such voters may cast their vote in a way that minimises the chances of that, even if they are no more enthused by Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ve just done my latest panellist VI question, so I guess they are updating up to the wire

    Another poll skewed :)
    Two PBers.... out of 40 million+ electors. Hmmmmm :D
    The pollsters tell me I’m a member of few very hard to contact demographics.
    Folk that still have time for Dave?
    That too.

    In the shrine* I have to David Cameron I have four things signed by him.

    *Study but mostly a printer room.
    Your body being one?
    Alistair said:

    1.36 to 1.46 is a change from 72% to 68%.

    Get a fucking grip and learn some basic mathematics.

    Well you've done it for me now so I dont have to. Cheers.
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s hilarious the ones in here freaking out seem to be Tory supporters whilst Labour supporters like myself seem quite chilled .

    Shouldn’t it be the other way round .

    PB Tories have two modes. Smug complacency, and headless chicken panic.
    And "satisfied after eating roast baby"

  • The voting system must change! We should be able to vote for something that is close to our beliefs not trying to game the system to stop something we hate.

    The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.

    After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Cookie said:

    Just had a look at some of Shadsy's odds - Corbyn is 3/1 to be PM by the new year. I think the current level of panic is justified.

    For that even to be a possibility the Tories would have to fail to get around 310 seats I think (allows for DUP). Is that about right?

    I think 3/1 is poor value.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2019
    Jonathan said:

    That question doesn't mean tactical voting, it can equally mean voters viewing the choice as the "lesser evil".

    I don't believe for a second that tactical voting is going to be significant. We hear the same stuff every time.

    Usually it is significant.
    Yes, but what matters is whether it is going to be more significant, or differently structured, this time round. It probably will be in a few high-profile seats such as Finchley & Golders Green, but whether it will be more generally, and in particular in Con/Lab marginals, is less clear. It's somewhat hard to see why it would be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    Anorak said:

    Is Nigel trying to stop his gravy time stopping?
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1204460345286385664

    Mad.
    Not if it really is true he does not want to leave the EU. He probably only stood down candidates under pressure.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    Odd goings-on in Beaconsfield - I wonder if Grieve could be in with a shout.

    https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584

    Wasn't he miles off in the polling for that constituency?
    Not that much - about 14% in the last poll a couple of weeks back, IIRC, and about half the ground to make up was of Labour and Green percentages.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Why is NOM tightening so much

    I got 5.1 at 3.30pm yesterday.

    Its 3.95 now.

    Profit taking by Tory Maj backers or another poll?

    I think the former FWIW
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eek said:

    Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...

    While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.
    Given that the choice for most people is one of cow dung or sheeps' droppings most people will be leaving it to the last second to make up their mind.
    Some people, certainly. A large fraction of the electorate, probably not. Most people, certainly not.

    This has been an excessively long campaign fought very largely on two issues about which the electorate has had years to come to a settled opinion: Brexit and the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. I interpret the near-stasis in the polls as evidence that the campaign effectively lasted about three weeks, up until late November, and that even within that period all that really happened was a bit of Remain and Leave consolidation around the two main parties (aided on the Leave side, of course, by the Brexit Party partial stand-down.)

    I would therefore hazard a guess that most voters have indeed decided; and, moreover, that anyone still dithering at this late stage is likely not to bother to turn out - especially if the weather turns out to be as awful on Thursday as the forecast currently suggests. Heavy rain all over the country: a fittingly dismal climax to this vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Odd goings-on in Beaconsfield - I wonder if Grieve could be in with a shout.

    https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584

    Wasn't he miles off in the polling for that constituency?
    Not that much - about 14% in the last poll a couple of weeks back, IIRC, and about half the ground to make up was of Labour and Green percentages.
    18% by the looks of it, with the Tories on 53%.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Wasnt Con Maj 1.22 the n Monday?

    Its 1.38 now
  • O/T

    I'm playing Scrabble with Midge Ure.

    I've got 4 letters left but they mean nothing to me.

    O

    V

    N

    R

    If there's an "E" free somewhere on the board you might be able to play roven?

    No need to thank me :smiley:
    TSE casting himself in the role of Joe Dolce?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

    That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

    If 'party I like best' runs ABCD, it must be very rare that 'party I dislike the least' is anything other than ABCD too.

    It's overwhelmingly just a snarkier way of saying the same thing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    3 hours and 38 minutes, to be precise?
  • Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

    I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

    These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:
    The issue is a lot of false rumours going around about the yougov mrp when it has not yet being completed.
  • Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Odd goings-on in Beaconsfield - I wonder if Grieve could be in with a shout.

    https://twitter.com/JohnPicton5/status/1204438749930819584

    Wasn't he miles off in the polling for that constituency?
    Not that much - about 14% in the last poll a couple of weeks back, IIRC, and about half the ground to make up was of Labour and Green percentages.
    18% by the looks of it, with the Tories on 53%.
    Yes, you're right, the Tories were on 53%, not 50 in that. You'd have to say though, that the Tories there may be worried if they're performing such strange action as this.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

    I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

    These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)

    I think you've found 12 people who are all very unlikely to vote...
  • eek said:

    Crikey. Can we all just calm down?

    Poll lead has been remarkably static for weeks. People have largely made up their minds and a bit of confected froth in the past couple of days isn't going to change that.

    Over the weekend and yesterday there was even a slight uptick in the gap.

    I'm sticking with Con +60.

    At least until after 10pm tonight...

    While your ultimate prediction looks entirely sensible, I completely disagree with you that people have now made up their minds. There are a lot of people out there really unhappy with the choice that they have been offered this time. They are still considering their options.
    Given that the choice for most people is one of cow dung or sheeps' droppings most people will be leaving it to the last second to make up their mind.
    Some people, certainly. A large fraction of the electorate, probably not. Most people, certainly not.

    This has been an excessively long campaign fought very largely on two issues about which the electorate has had years to come to a settled opinion: Brexit and the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. I interpret the near-stasis in the polls as evidence that the campaign effectively lasted about three weeks, up until late November, and that even within that period all that really happened was a bit of Remain and Leave consolidation around the two main parties (aided on the Leave side, of course, by the Brexit Party partial stand-down.)

    I would therefore hazard a guess that most voters have indeed decided; and, moreover, that anyone still dithering at this late stage is likely not to bother to turn out - especially if the weather turns out to be as awful on Thursday as the forecast currently suggests. Heavy rain all over the country: a fittingly dismal climax to this vote.
    Look at the satisfaction ratings of (a) Boris Johnson (b) the government and (c) Jeremy Corbyn. Calculate the number of people who must be dissatisfied with all three. Consider how fixed they are likely to be in any choice they might provisionally have made.

    NB that percentage is something like 40% of the electorate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited December 2019

    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.
    I'm going to steel myself and watch 2017 again. :)


    (just kidding, I couldn't watch that again :o )
  • And the idea that this is an excessively long campaign is laughable. It couldn’t have been shorter.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    Show off - I found it strange that the trailer was had an introduction explaining how it was filmed..
  • eek said:

    Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

    I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

    These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)

    I think you've found 12 people who are all very unlikely to vote...
  • RobD said:

    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    Watching the BBC election special from 1983 might help too.
    I'm going to steel myself and watch 2017 again. :)


    (just kidding, I couldn't watch that gain :o )
    It took me fully 5 seconds to comprehend what the exit poll was saying, even though the Dimble was spelling it out.
  • Some were thinking about not voting - but most did want to vote; it was a case of "who do I dislike least?"
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2019

    And the idea that this is an excessively long campaign is laughable. It couldn’t have been shorter.

    It feels long though. How many more Get Brexit Dones and Privatising the NHS can you take?
  • And the idea that this is an excessively long campaign is laughable. It couldn’t have been shorter.

    It feels long though. How many more Get Brexit Dones can you take?
    Only another ten years or so, I’m afraid.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
    That offends me!

    You can't have a "pile" of effluent. It's liquid.

  • Hmmm

  • Drutt said:

    If I do vote in this election then it will be for the party I dislike least.

    That's not tactical voting though, rather a reflection on the quality off the options available.

    If 'party I like best' runs ABCD, it must be very rare that 'party I dislike the least' is anything other than ABCD too.

    It's overwhelmingly just a snarkier way of saying the same thing.
    Possibly, but it says something about the way you are looking at it.

    In the past, I have voted enthusiastically (and campaigned for) the party I liked best. Now, I couldn't say that I like any of them.

    The reason it is relevant here is, as I understand the question in the header, it just demonstrates that 25% of people aren't fans of any party (I'm actually surprised it isn't hight, but that's another point). I don't see how it indicates tactical voting.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    The survey is incoherent. "Party I like most" and "party I dislike least" are going to come to the same thing in the mind of anyone sane, so the question doesn't differentiate between VIs, just voters' state of mind. What it thought it was asking was, will you vote for the party you like most or *against* the party you *dislike* most. Different question.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
    That is a very pertinent point.

    My criteria would be what is the best shot at preventing either of these clowns achieving a majority. Which means voting tactically against the Conservative Party.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Stocky said:

    Cookie said:

    Just had a look at some of Shadsy's odds - Corbyn is 3/1 to be PM by the new year. I think the current level of panic is justified.

    For that even to be a possibility the Tories would have to fail to get around 310 seats I think (allows for DUP). Is that about right?

    I think 3/1 is poor value.
    Quite. I can't see any scenario in which the Tories do that badly that doesn't involve at least the Labour Leavers returning en masse to their former party on polling day, and it would probably require an implosion in Scotland as well.

    I think that plenty of us will be worrying at least a little about the former - it's the reason why the realistic range of results in this election still extends into Hung Parliament territory - but there's still no evidence of a collapse in the Tory lead in the polls, and the mood music from Scotland is broadly encouraging for the Blue Team.

    Jeremy Corbyn could still end up in power, but a lot is going to need to go wrong for the Tories in a very short space of time for that to happen from this position.
  • The voting system must change! We should be able to vote for something that is close to our beliefs not trying to game the system to stop something we hate.

    The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.

    After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.

    Great post. I know I should get politically active rather than just accept perpetual political disappointment, and to make any difference it probably needs to be in Labour or the Tories. There are many Labour and Tory politicians I admire but they tend to retiring or getting kicked out! It is time for a centrist entryist takeover of one of the main parties, which one, I am ambivalent. If it works for kippers and momentum why cant it work for centrists?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    The survey is incoherent. "Party I like most" and "party I dislike least" are going to come to the same thing in the mind of anyone sane, so the question doesn't differentiate between VIs, just voters' state of mind. What it thought it was asking was, will you vote for the party you like most or *against* the party you *dislike* most. Different question.

    Exactly, that would indicate tactical voting, but it isn't what is being asked here.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019

    Hmmm

    Going off memory that looks like mostly a decrease in the unfavourable figure rather than a positive vote for, so not the end of the world.

    Edit: I lie, it's half and half.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Some were thinking about not voting - but most did want to vote; it was a case of "who do I dislike least?"

    As AlistairMeeks commented below that's a lot of the electorate and chances are they aren't going to make up their mind until presented with the paper.

    I have to admit when I voted it was with a heavy heart wishing that the Lib Dems were an option (they weren't as a vote for them around here is no different from not voting or spoiling the ballot).
  • Byronic said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - unless there was some further context, this is not a particularly uswful question since candidate I dislikethe least is just a grumpier way of saying candidate I like the most. Or am I missing something? I'm in full blown panic mode so may not be thinking clearly. For other Tory panickers, Ladbrokes has NOM at 4.0 + boost.

    If you adore Jeremy Corbyn, you’ll vote for him. If you salute Boris Johnson Benny Hill-style every time you see him, you’ll vote for him.

    If you think both are stinking piles of effluent, the choice is markedly harder and different considerations come into play.
    That offends me!

    You can't have a "pile" of effluent. It's liquid.

    I stand duly corrected. Delete pile, replace with slurry.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Hmmm

    Another pointer to HP
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    Greeting from the Land of Fish! One of the interesting points from that Ashcroft survey was how "moments" that the media and political devotees set great store by in an election campaign don't seem to resonate with large swathes of the voting public. I did a bit of amateur-focus grouping at work today - about a dozen people aged 30s to 60s all pretty apolitical an d virtually all undecided how they would vote.

    I mentioned BorisPhoneHospitalFloorGate - they all knew about it but although some thought that what Boris had done was "a bit weird" most seemed more excised by the child's mum letting him stay on the floor; the women (all mothers) said they'd have held the child on their lap to sleep or give up their chair for the child - which |I found quite surprising in view of the media hoo-ha. Equally, taking a pic of him ill and giving it to the papers didn't go down too well. Similarly, with today's AshworthBanterGate most weren't bothered with what he had said - but all though his mate was a creep for recording and releasing the conversation.

    These are people who don't use Twitter and only use Facebook for chatting to their friends and posting pics of holidays and children's birthdays; is there a disconnect between what the media, political anoraks and the Twitterati think is important and what large sections of the population do? (As an aside, none of them remembered anything about ReesMogg/Grenfell, Corbyn's Car Crash interview or Andrew Neil's monologue against Boris Johnson)

    I think you've found 12 people who are all very unlikely to vote...
    No - I think he/she`s found people who are fairly typical up and down the country and probably will vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Shouldnt posters who state "Get a fucking grip and learn some basic mathematics"

    Learn some basic Maths

    Alistair states 1.36 is a 72% chance

    Its 73.6% chance

    0/10 see me

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    RobD said:

    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    3 hours and 38 minutes, to be precise?
    It was 3hrs 48 mins when you posted.

    PB Tories gone mad!!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Anyway, as this place is wobblier than a jelly factory in an earthquake, I shall go and watch 1917 for a couple of hours.....

    3 hours and 38 minutes, to be precise?
    It was 3hrs 48 mins when you posted.

    PB Tories gone mad!!

    I'm assuming MarqueeMark will want to revel in the excitement in the build up. :)
  • Byronic said:

    Hmmm

    Another pointer to HP
    No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Hmmm

    -30 is still a long way behind -14.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Hmmm

    Going off memory that looks like mostly a decrease in the unfavourable figure rather than a positive vote for, so not the end of the world.

    Edit: I lie, it's half and half.
    Yes it was 22/60 last time. A 4 point swing
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Ashworth had been on holiday with the guy who leaked the tape.

    Blokes just don't come any lovelier than that.
  • Tory majority back into 1.35 now....a little assurance
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sean_F said:

    Hmmm

    -30 is still a long way behind -14.
    Corbyn doesn't mind being behind Boris, just not too far behind.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    The voting system must change! We should be able to vote for something that is close to our beliefs not trying to game the system to stop something we hate.

    The old two party system provided stability when the parties were clustered coalitions that carried out internal compromises and then bid for power. Big binary issues like Brexit break that model and then to put the icing on the cake the Labour Party has been captured by extremist fanatics.

    After this crisis of an election I'm going to get politically active as appalled centrists can't simply act like consumers who don't like the offerings. One problem is the fanatics are really dedicated.

    Great post. I know I should get politically active rather than just accept perpetual political disappointment, and to make any difference it probably needs to be in Labour or the Tories. There are many Labour and Tory politicians I admire but they tend to retiring or getting kicked out! It is time for a centrist entryist takeover of one of the main parties, which one, I am ambivalent. If it works for kippers and momentum why cant it work for centrists?
    Just join the lib dems and work from the ground up it can’t be done from within labour or Tory they think they control their patch and will never change except to the extremes. There is no better satisfaction than beating a lazy complacent Tory councillor try it it’s enjoyable.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Hmmm

    Another pointer to HP
    No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.
    Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.

    The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.

    This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.

    I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    edited December 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Hmmm

    -30 is still a long way behind -14.
    It might be a lot closer after the LGI controversy, and I don't expect Corbyn has improved at all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,771
    So when are we expecting an end to the wibbling? (I mean of course this super Yougov which is going to make the act of voting superfluous).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Sean_F said:

    Hmmm

    -30 is still a long way behind -14.
    For Alistair its 16 behind!!
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    @Black_Rook

    Two pieces of incisive analysis here this evening.

    It why I come here.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Hmmm

    Another pointer to HP
    No, not quite. Someone on here will be more familiar with the historic numbers but I’d say tighter than it has been, but still a good lead. Corbyn has just moved to “slightly more welcome than a hornet in the foreskin” while Boris remains polarising.
    Corbyn's favourability is climbing fast, exactly as happened in 2017.

    The difference here is that the climb happened later, and from a worse position, but as PB showed us a few threads ago, the trajectory is the same.

    This poll is 6-9th. There's two-three more days of campaigning after those dates. More time for him to climb AND we know the NHS has been, and will be, all over the news from now to polling day.

    I wish I didn't bring bad tidings, but I reckon Labour can quite easily get to a hung parliament from here, and from there on, God save us all, and may the best man win in the fight for the lifeboats.

    You see only Scylla while a large part of the electorate is staring with horror at sailing into Charybdis.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    DavidL said:

    So when are we expecting an end to the wibbling? (I mean of course this super Yougov which is going to make the act of voting superfluous).

    YouGov won't be definitive this time, because of LGI

    In terms of calming nerves, it will be valerian pastilles, not valium pills
This discussion has been closed.