Having a play around some constituencies it looks quite tight. Getting out the vote looks crucial, as ever. I still think the Christmas Party factor will bite, but I’m not sure who.
I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I feel much the same way.
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.
It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.
This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.
Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.
The other thing I wish to point out before I head off is that this polling was over the last 7 days. But I have detected a VERY noticeable shift to Labour in the last 36 hours, prior to which it was stagnant. I think the momentum to Labour is huge.
Digging around a bit, it’s a lot better for the LibDems than it appears. They are still in contention in a lot of their target seats. Bearing in mind the model’s self-confessed weakness in identifying seat-specific effects, the LDs could still surprise on the upside, and so take Bozo’s majority down.
I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I feel much the same way.
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.
It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.
This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.
Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.
Really? That's what would sway people who have been undecided up until now? I just don't understand people.
Yes. I've had lots of people talking about it. The NHS really matters to people and a sick child ... you couldn't have got a worse possible closing meme for Johnson.
When the post-mortem of this election is written I think that will be the moment when Johnson lost it.
I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.
I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.
I’ve been too busy then too ill to get an independent sense of what is going on. There’s huge dissatisfaction at the available choice and that’s as much as I’ve picked up.
Yeesh, 28 majority on a 9 pt lead? It's not going to be that large a gap.
Tories really had better hope yesterday's debacle doesn't have an effect, because this poll is based on seven days' data, so if there is an effect not very much of it will be in the MRP.
The other thing I wish to point out before I head off is that this polling was over the last 7 days. But I have detected a VERY noticeable shift to Labour in the last 36 hours, prior to which it was stagnant. I think the momentum to Labour is huge.
Offset that with 20% postal votes.
But, heck, this is tighter.
Night all.
With great reluctance, I am forced to agree. It's a huge mood shift. I am not sure why. But it has happened. Labour are within touching distance of being biggest party
Their problem is that it has come so so late, that is quite unlikely. But a hung parliament is super do-able. For them.
Erm am I missing something here? It’s still showing a Tory majority, and actually one I think looks quite realistic.
I think people need to calm down.
The direction of travel is clear. If labour are up another 2% on election day, that means a hung Parliament
And in 2017 the MRP showed a lower seat count for the Tories than what they achieved. So there’s so many ifs and buts in this.
A slim Tory victory is essentially what it’s predicting and essentially what I think a lot of us have been saying for some time. I thought the 50+ majority stuff was always a bit of guff.
Given the direction, that probably means a Hung Parliament.
Catastrophe.
The catastrophe is a Labour majority. That isn’t happening. A close to 10 point lead will deliver the Tories a handy majority. Johnson will be free to launch his assault on the constitution.
The Tories like to pretend a Corbyn majority is likely when it never has been.
The Truth is a Boris majority is likely. Tories naturally delight at the prospect of a blank cheque.
I think the tone of Johnston on the last day could effect 20 seats.
He surely has to come out and make a passionate speech about the NHS. Maybe make some cast-iron guaranteee (copyright D Cameron) about how he won't privatise it.
I've been moderated for pointing out that anyone who votes for Corbyn, or helps a Labour MP with a tactical vote, is enabling the elevation of a quasi-Islamist, Britain-loathing, Jew-hating prime minister, with all that means for the soul of the nation.
And these people need to morally own their awful decision, and the terrible consequences. Remainerism is a passing affair, anti-Semitism and crypto-Marxism are continuing evils that hurt millions, and will hurt again.
I'm sorry if this offends. But it is simply the truth
I feel much the same way.
I can’t understand why 46% of the electorate would seemingly prefer him as PM in a forced choice.
This should really be down at Chirac v. Le Pen levels.
Few would agree with characterising Jeremy Corbyn as "Britain-loathing"! Which way would Shelley, Blake, Burns and Dickens vote on Thursday?
I think lots would agree that Jeremy Corbyn is Britain-loathing.
That's rubbish. Corbyn dislikes Britain's inequality and unfairness and its colonial past. Disliking the establishment isn't the same as hating Britain. I love this country, that's why I want it to be better. I think Corbyn's views come from a similar place.
You do, yes. Corbyn sees Britain as the root of all evil in the world.
It comes through with every fibre of his being, and everything he says.
This isn’t even a point for debate. It’s just true.
Not really. He dislikes the establishment and the colonialist and racist mindset that has ruled for much of our history. But then all right thinking people would hate that too. There is another Britain, that isn't the Britain of the House of Lords, the great public schools and the officers' mess. The Britain of the nonconformists, the trades unionists, the suffragettes and the Chartists, musical pioneers like the Beatles, writing songs to change the world from a council house in Liverpool. And the Britain of ordinary people living unsung lives, working hard for not a lot of money. This is the Britain that I love, the Britain that Labour will always fight for.
f***ing brilliant post. These Tories hate everything good about Britain.
Digging around a bit, it’s a lot better for the LibDems than it appears. They are still in contention in a lot of their target seats. Bearing in mind the model’s self-confessed weakness in identifying seat-specific effects, the LDs could still surprise on the upside, and so take Bozo’s majority down.
I've estimated them at 22 seats, but that's still not enough to deprive Bojo of his majority. What we still need is more Lab and LD to SNP tactical switching in Scotland. I still find it bizarre that the Tories are going to do so well there.
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
If the Lib Dems gain a decent number of affluent English seats and Jo Swinson loses hers, it would be a good result for them in the longer term. Choosing her was a disastrous decision.
They've got previous, though not many quality runners available, then who has?
I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.
I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.
I’ve been too busy then too ill to get an independent sense of what is going on. There’s huge dissatisfaction at the available choice and that’s as much as I’ve picked up.
There is also real anger and desire to end austerity. That is behind the BBCQT hostility to the Lib Dems. Apart from Brexit BoZo has little to offer.
Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.
Someone on PB (sorry I can't remember who) posted up the link enabling the earlier YouGov MRP's detailed data and forecast result for every seat to be downloaded. Does anyone know please whether this same information is available for this updated MRP?
I think the tone of Johnston on the last day could effect 20 seats.
He surely has to come out and make a passionate speech about the NHS. Maybe make some cast-iron guaranteee (copyright D Cameron) about how he won't privatise it.
Ramming a JCB into fake bricks aint gonna cut it,
That stunt looked pathetic to anyone whose not a Bozo fan . Coupled with his photo gate incident it’s not a good look .
He just looks like he’s not taking things seriously.
How on earth do the Tories only get a 28 majority with a nine point poll lead? That makes no sense.
Flattered by BXP not standing in Tory seats.
Not really. Sedgefield is projected that the Conservative have a 1% lead there despite Brexit standing. But in Milton Keynes they are barelly ahead too even if Brexit is not standing.
Someone on PB (sorry I can't remember who) posted up the link enabling the earlier YouGov MRP's detailed data and forecast result for every seat to be downloaded. Does anyone know please whether this same information is available for this updated MRP?
I don’t expect anyone will remember, but this isn’t the election result.
I will remember Alistair. I think the polls are way out.
Which way?
Given the horrible choice of leaders, the splitting of Left/Right across Leave/Remain, the collapse of Westminster parties in Scotland, I am expecting the result to be highly unpredictable. I have no way of knowing in which direction, but the old models and assumptions, UNS etc will not be much use this time around. I also dislike the way the MRP takes a national view and then "morphs" it on to constituency level based on a handful (630?) of voters questioned, a proportion of whom are self-selected like people on here who do YouGov panels.
So much has changed. The models have never been tested like this, but never forget that "computer modelling" is too often a way of saying "guesstimate".
Thursday at 10pm will be interesting
(BTW - my own view is Boris with a majority of 10, but I would prefer -10)
Boris needs to get outside Downing Street tomorrow and make a statement assuring the people that the NHS is safe in his hands and that no one should have to be without a bed. He needs to link the Brexit dividend back to the NHS and promise £350 million extra a week from the moment we leave .
The LibDems are going to regret "Bollocks to Brexit", and personalising the campaign around Jo Swinson. She may even lose her seat. That being said, in pure vote terms, the LDs will do significantly better than in '15 or '17. With 50+% more votes than last time, and it would be surprising if they were to actually fall backwards in number of seats.
If the Lib Dems gain a decent number of affluent English seats and Jo Swinson loses hers, it would be a good result for them in the longer term. Choosing her was a disastrous decision.
They've got previous, though not many quality runners available, then who has?
I think she's okay. Even the Revoke platform would've been okay if she'd explained herself better and toughed it out. But it has become clear that LibDem members of the Cameron coalition are tainted and the party should've picked a leader who's untainted,eg. Layla Moran.
Am sticking with my opinion from earlier this evening. The numbers look broadly sensible, though the numbers of very close calls in Tory-held seats in Scotland and Tory targets in North Wales seem surprisingly high given relatively buoyant performances in the Scottish and Welsh polls, and the likely effect of Unionist tactical voting in Scotland.
Looks most likely that there will be a moderate Conservative majority.
Con vs Ind - East Devon Con vs LD - Winchester, Esher Con vs Lab - Kensington, Dagenham, Hendon, Bedford, Clwyd S, Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Delyn, Aberconwy, Wolverhampton SW, Gedling, Lincoln, Grimsby, Bradford S, Stockton S, Sedgefield, Bolton NE, Bury N Con vs SNP - Ayr, East Ren, Lanark, Aberdeen S, Ochil, Gordon, Moray Lab vs SNP - Rutherglen, Glasgow E LD vs SNP - NE Fife 3 way marginal - Ynys Mon
Workington now leans Lab but Con just ahead in Bolsover.
Really? That's what would sway people who have been undecided up until now? I just don't understand people.
Yes. I've had lots of people talking about it. The NHS really matters to people and a sick child ... you couldn't have got a worse possible closing meme for Johnson.
When the post-mortem of this election is written I think that will be the moment when Johnson lost it.
Like Kinnock at Sheffield.
It could be. Or Brown in Rochdale, or Callaghan on his return from Guadeloupe.
But the night is young. We're not even in Wednesday yet.
Comments
Does this MRP take account of postal votes already cast?
Put a few quid on 70-80% turnout
It'll be interesting to see, considering this is so close to the Focaldata MRP totals, which seats they differ on.
Anyway, I haven't bothered to change my forecast (Tory majority 18) since the end of November, and I'm happy to stick with it. https://ukelect.wordpress.com/2019/11/17/general-election-2018-nowcast/
😅
Donkey. Red rosette. Eye-ore!
Offset that with 20% postal votes.
But, heck, this is tighter.
Night all.
Good grief.
Edit: YouGov publish the spreadsheet here.
Are you new here?
It does seem very strange .
I see that they have Chuka closing in in Westminster & London, 38% to 32% but within margin of error.
When the post-mortem of this election is written I think that will be the moment when Johnson lost it.
Like Kinnock at Sheffield.
Inject it into my veins.
Wales only 10 Tories, completely out of line with the Wales barometer
Will there be an update tomorrow? ;-)
Only a predicted strong Labour revival keeps the SNP seats lower.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=MRP_26_Nov_2019
Exceptionally small cliff
Their problem is that it has come so so late, that is quite unlikely. But a hung parliament is super do-able. For them.
Jeez.
A slim Tory victory is essentially what it’s predicting and essentially what I think a lot of us have been saying for some time. I thought the 50+ majority stuff was always a bit of guff.
The Truth is a Boris majority is likely. Tories naturally delight at the prospect of a blank cheque.
Ramming a JCB into fake bricks aint gonna cut it,
NEW THREAD
OGH vote could be the one that decides the outcome - Buffoon or Magic Marxist?
*innocent face*
It's down but it hasn't fallen out of an 80s Argentine helicopter
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16BjKMutz0rNyU7jqyH-S0VTcYPwhp-fGD5z73s-5YoA
Just fixing a bug in the seat progression chart, so can see how the night is predicted to pan out. Obviously ignore the "result" stuff on the Chart tab as that is just placeholder.
If the turnout is that high, Boris will have a hefty majority.
Bozo has ducked Neil and fucked up on the NHS photo. Driving a bulldozer doesn’t really cut it by way of compensation.
He just looks like he’s not taking things seriously.
Sedgefield is projected that the Conservative have a 1% lead there despite Brexit standing.
But in Milton Keynes they are barelly ahead too even if Brexit is not standing.
So much has changed. The models have never been tested like this, but never forget that "computer modelling" is too often a way of saying "guesstimate".
Thursday at 10pm will be interesting
(BTW - my own view is Boris with a majority of 10, but I would prefer -10)
Looks most likely that there will be a moderate Conservative majority.
Con vs Ind - East Devon
Con vs LD - Winchester, Esher
Con vs Lab - Kensington, Dagenham, Hendon, Bedford, Clwyd S, Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd, Delyn, Aberconwy, Wolverhampton SW, Gedling, Lincoln, Grimsby, Bradford S, Stockton S, Sedgefield, Bolton NE, Bury N
Con vs SNP - Ayr, East Ren, Lanark, Aberdeen S, Ochil, Gordon, Moray
Lab vs SNP - Rutherglen, Glasgow E
LD vs SNP - NE Fife
3 way marginal - Ynys Mon
Workington now leans Lab but Con just ahead in Bolsover.
But the night is young. We're not even in Wednesday yet.
It fell 10% overnight on the EU Ref outcome and we appear to have survived.
Stop being such a drama queen!