politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

Benpointer said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"I could not consent to the introduction into our national life of a device so alien to all our traditions as the referendum which has only too often been the instrument of Nazism and Fascism."

referendums are "a device of dictators and demagogues"

C. Attlee

Discuss

Attlee's reputation only increases further as more time passes.

Royally effed up the Partition of India, though.

Anyone have an idea as to how many more Labour votes there would have been today if the amendment had been allowed ?

And how many fewer Conservative ?

another_richard said:

Anyone have an idea as to how many more Labour votes there would have been today if the amendment had been allowed ?

And how many fewer Conservative ?

Which amendment? - there were three.

AmpfieldAndy said:

williamglenn said:

Brexit is on track everyone.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1111696389279543296

If only the EU would kick us out. It would implement the referendum, free us from Temainers trying to block it, and allow us to get on with the rest of our lives.

Dream on - not happening.

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Benpointer said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"I could not consent to the introduction into our national life of a device so alien to all our traditions as the referendum which has only too often been the instrument of Nazism and Fascism."

referendums are "a device of dictators and demagogues"

C. Attlee

Discuss

Attlee's reputation only increases further as more time passes.

Royally effed up the Partition of India, though.

Fair point, didn't appreciate that was him, somehow thought it was WSC. My oversight.

Delegated to the Viceroy I think. India did not have direct rule by the PM, and Attlee was always pro-Indian self rule.

India was under direct rule after 1858.

Cyclefree said:

mwjfrome17 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/skeptical7th/status/1111654184577892352

Astonishing you can wear that and not get arrested (if he wasn't).

Being a c##t is not a crime.

Being a racist c%%t is.

Being against multi-culturalism is not racist.

Well here is the definition

Multiculturalism is a situation in which all the different cultural or racial groups in a society have equal rights and opportunities, and none is ignored or regarded as unimportant.

So being against racial groups having equal rights and opportunities is somehow not racist?

What you are describing is equality under the law not multiculturalism.

Image result for multiculturalismen.wikipedia.org
Multiculturalism is a situation in which all the different cultural or racial groups in a society have equal rights and opportunities, and none is ignored or regarded as unimportant.
Multiculturalism definition and meaning | Collins English Dictionary
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/multiculturalism
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About this result

Black_Rook said:

I've not had much time to assimilate all the info about what's been going on today, but my understanding is as follows:

1. The Deal has been defeated for a third time, but May is likely to attempt to bring it back for a fourth. Dead horse flogging to continue ad nauseam.
2. Brexit Day is now scheduled for April 12th, but the effective deadline for Parliament voting for any option that might lead to Brexit with a Withdrawal Agreement is April 9th, because the European Council expects any proposal to arrive with it for consideration no later than the 10th.
3. MPs are going to attempt to find a majority for a way forward again on Monday. If they're still deadlocked after that then it's still theoretically possible that they could settle on something through one or two more rounds of voting, though more likely the remaining week thereafter will be eaten up by mutual recrimination and the attempts of the Government to somehow secure MV4.
4. Therefore, if Parliament doesn't vote for a positive outcome on April Fools' Day that the EU can accept - and I don't see much likelihood of anything other than a Deal vs Remain referendum coming to pass at this stage - then MPs are either going to have to resort to the Revoke panic button (probably on the 10th or the 11th, once any lingering hope of any other possible way out of No Deal is dead,) or they will simply sit there like a complete field of wet lettuces and hand total victory to Andrew Bridgen, Bill Cash and the rest of the diehards.

Or is there anything vital that I'm missing here?

It's a pretty good summing-up, I would say. You also include the revoke panic button that many are forgetting.

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

@Barnesian....I know it is not right but when MPs lie and go against a national democratic Vote for their own or Party benefit what do they expect ? That they will be welcomed by the public ?

viewcode said:

dots said:

Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.

If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch

Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.

2.1. No deal. Cash in

I will never cease to be amazed at people who believe they can arrange hundreds of small deals in fourteen days with an entity that doesn't want to deal, and without actually having the power to negotiate any deal at all. It's one thing to believe in unicorns, it's another thing to phone to book the unicorn stadium for unicorn dressage, despite there being no unicorns, no unicorn stadium, no such sport as unicorn dressage, and you don't own a phone.

I thought there’s no point arguing with people who’s not listening. Maybe I was being too belligerent because politics is not logical, doesn’t work logically, you can’t say to anyone ignore what you are being told think it through logically. There no logic to politics just shades of politic.

But then I thought this.

I totally agree transitional arrangements of a managed no deal, the Sectoral mini-deals are not on the table. I totally agree on that.

But will you agree with me that is precisely what we must keep an eye on, that the moment they come out the box (BECAUSE THEY EXIST) and are back on the table it’s clear which way this is going?

Because what you are doing is taking EU communique, not just of today but for the next week or so, a communique that is playing politics, and you are using it to play your own politics. But it doesn’t work as a weapon against me because unlike you I haven’t swallowed it.

My reasoned argument is It’s not that these things don’t exist. And we shouldn’t trust the politics behind what they are saying. If they go into no deal scenario, if council decide to go that route, why wouldn’t they use these things considering they have them?

There’s not of shred of doubt in my mind we are heading to no deal using the carefully devised
transition arrangements and sectoral mini deals, because once the leaver putsch is complete in cabinet the political preference of the decision makers at this time, EU council and the UKs Conservative Government will be to manage no deal brexit as painlessly as possible.

I’m right about a leaver putsch. I’m also right about what it results in.

Jonathan said:

So, we have a couple of indicative votes next week. The government decides to ignore them and goes for no deal. There is a lot of howling, but nobody can stop them.

Is that what happens next?

I don't think so. If the Tories go explicatly for no-deal they will lose people for sure. Hammond, Rudd and other remainers.

Casino_Royale said:

On a lighter note, it gives me some satisfaction to see the revoke petition has still not reached 6 million.

5,976,389. It's going to be a relief when I can turn it off thinking "Job well done.".

viewcode said:

dots said:

Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.

If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch

Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.

2.1. No deal. Cash in

I will never cease to be amazed at people who believe they can arrange hundreds of small deals in fourteen days with an entity that doesn't want to deal, and without actually having the power to negotiate any deal at all. It's one thing to believe in unicorns, it's another thing to phone to book the unicorn stadium for unicorn dressage, despite there being no unicorns, no unicorn stadium, no such sport as unicorn dressage, and you don't own a phone.

They’ve already been done. Eg the ceo of easyJet said there was a deal on flying for the next 9 months.

Benpointer said:

another_richard said:

Anyone have an idea as to how many more Labour votes there would have been today if the amendment had been allowed ?

And how many fewer Conservative ?

Which amendment? - there were three.

See the comments on PB around 8.30am today.

rcs1000 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"I could not consent to the introduction into our national life of a device so alien to all our traditions as the referendum which has only too often been the instrument of Nazism and Fascism."

referendums are "a device of dictators and demagogues"

C. Attlee

Discuss

Well, the Swiss seem to manage frequent referenda without becoming too obviously fascistic. And here in California, there's no shortage of state level referenda.

The problem is that we don't have a federal system or written Constitution, unlike those two states you mention, so there is a lack of checks and balances. And sanity.

Jonathan said:

So, we have a couple of indicative votes next week. The government decides to ignore them and goes for no deal. There is a lot of howling, but nobody can stop them.

Is that what happens next?

Theoretically you're right: if Parliament comes up with a clear majority for something that Theresa May doesn't like she could choose to ignore it (and we'd then be into the territory of whether MPs had both the willpower and the time to sack her and install a compromise figure as a temporary PM to expedite the chosen course of action.)

In practice, for as long as anything other than No Deal or Revoke is actually possible (i.e. up to about April 9th) then if Parliament does find a clear and workable way forward I believe that the Prime Minister, stubborn as she is, will go for it - not least because the only such compromise that appears workable is swallowing her Deal after all, on the proviso that a Deal/Remain referendum is then held. That would resolve the situation, and I think the EU27 would be amenable to extending to allow such a vote to take place.

If we run out of time for a negotiated settlement with the EU then it comes down to panic revocation versus No Deal. Again, if Parliament votes to Revoke then I think the PM will accept, but the barriers to Revocation are sufficiently high (MPs vote overwhelmingly against the SNP motion the other night, and Revoke is likely to destroy the Conservative Party) that No Deal is the more likely outcome if Parliament hasn't been able to agree anything else by a week next Tuesday.

At this stage, I think the most likely outcome at the end of all of this is No Deal, followed by 2nd Referendum, followed by Revoke. A long extension for something other than 2nd Ref seems like nothing more than an opportunity for more dithering and can-kicking in Westminster, it provides no certainty to the EU27, and so I don't see why they would be interested in allowing such a thing.

Barnesian said:

Marco1 said:

@Barnesian....I know it is not right but when MPs lie and go against a national democratic Vote for their own or Party benefit what do they expect ? That they will be welcomed by the public ?

Nandy is a Leaver.

I trust she voted for the WA then, as that's the only mechanism available for getting out of the EU.

isam said:

tpfkar said:

rottenborough said:

The trouble with any kind of extension, is the EU elections issue. These elections will be won by Farage's Brexit Party, and his new party will be established in public mind.

He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.

Are you sure? The Brexit vote will split between Con / UKIP / Brexit / Lots of UKIP splinters
I reckon Labour might do quite well.

I just cant see the Tories, as the party that failed to deliver Brexit, being backed by Leavers

I don't think logic has much to do with these things. The Tories are clearly more leavey than Labour and I have a feeling that will get the leavers voting blue. Likewise remainers are likely at their wits end with Labour - but who else can they vote for if they don't want to let the people who have messed everything up back in.

I predict a rerun of 2017.

Ishmael_Z said:

Omnium said:

Casino_Royale said:

On a lighter note, it gives me some satisfaction to see the revoke petition has still not reached 6 million.

There's a herd thing there. I really don't know if its the power of social media genuinely percolating themes, or whether it is in fact idiots (who may or may not work in the Kremlin) pumping the numbers. There will of course be a degree of both.

I will say though that should I ever meet someone who signed the revoke petition then I'll hold them forever-more in low esteem. Sort of surprising that I genuinely don't know a single person who has said they'd signed - admittedly I've not asked.

Here's a wild hypothesis: the people whose job it is to weed out fake signatures from petitions, know more about it than you do.

I signed it (once). How I am going to sleep tonight, or any other night, knowing that you hold me in low esteem, God knows.

I surrender obviously. You're quite right in your pointing fun.

I'd barely mention your (once) moment of madness if the issue was a minor one.

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

No police at all? Find that hard to believe.

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

Not yet.

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:

Off topic, the valuation of Lyft (loss-making) and listed today in the US and suggested valuations for Uber strike me as insane. And a bubble in the making.

I fear we are re-embarking on the same old boom and bust cycle of before.

I think we've been in the boom part of the boom and bust cycle for quite a while now*.

* As regards valuations of certain high tech startups

Greater fool theory. You also see it in the Canadian hash companies

But Merck paying 24x EBITDA for a manufacturer of plastic ear tags shoots the lights out

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1111715776023744513?s=21

Dame Margaret Beckett entered the building ?!?

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

I’ll sell a million and buy at zero

Tinderpot London, who'd have thunk it..

Benpointer said:

isam said:

Anorak said:

Benpointer said:

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

WhisperingOracle said:

isam said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

Parliament doesn't normally slap the British people in the face though

All the British people ?

Over half!

Not according to current polls, ofcourse ;.)

Not ever really - 37% of the British people.

"The British People" is usually code for "people like me".

In this case it just meant people who voted for the winners of the 2016 referendum, which does include me though I suppose.

But it was not "over half" of the British people just to be clear.

Over one eighth of the UK electorate have signed the Revoke petition.

Recidivist said:

isam said:

tpfkar said:

rottenborough said:

The trouble with any kind of extension, is the EU elections issue. These elections will be won by Farage's Brexit Party, and his new party will be established in public mind.

He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.

Are you sure? The Brexit vote will split between Con / UKIP / Brexit / Lots of UKIP splinters
I reckon Labour might do quite well.

I just cant see the Tories, as the party that failed to deliver Brexit, being backed by Leavers

I don't think logic has much to do with these things. The Tories are clearly more leavey than Labour and I have a feeling that will get the leavers voting blue. Likewise remainers are likely at their wits end with Labour - but who else can they vote for if they don't want to let the people who have messed everything up back in.

I predict a rerun of 2017.

Sorry, we have our wires crossed, I meant the Euro Elections.

Gardenwalker said:

https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1111716582164779013?s=21

To show the different circles we move in on here, this morning I was trying to convince a friend that having Tommy Robinson in charge of the country would be a bad thing.

isam said:

Gardenwalker said:

https://twitter.com/georgetrefgarne/status/1111716582164779013?s=21

To show the different circles we move in on here, this morning I was trying to convince a friend that having Tommy Robinson in charge of the country would be a bad thing.

Having Stephen Hawking in charge of the country would have been a bad thing. Having me in charge of the country would be a disaster,

isam said:

Recidivist said:

isam said:

tpfkar said:

rottenborough said:

The trouble with any kind of extension, is the EU elections issue. These elections will be won by Farage's Brexit Party, and his new party will be established in public mind.

He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.

Are you sure? The Brexit vote will split between Con / UKIP / Brexit / Lots of UKIP splinters
I reckon Labour might do quite well.

I just cant see the Tories, as the party that failed to deliver Brexit, being backed by Leavers

I don't think logic has much to do with these things. The Tories are clearly more leavey than Labour and I have a feeling that will get the leavers voting blue. Likewise remainers are likely at their wits end with Labour - but who else can they vote for if they don't want to let the people who have messed everything up back in.

I predict a rerun of 2017.

Sorry, we have our wires crossed, I meant the Euro Elections.

If we get as far as holding European Parliament elections then it goes without saying that the outcome could be rather unpredictable - although if I had to stick my neck out then I would guess that the main casualty in such a poll would be Labour.

RobD said:

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

No police at all? Find that hard to believe.

There were none except the usuals at the end of Downing Street,

Leave being hijacked by Tommy Robinson . The anger mongers will always find a vehicle to hijack .

Whether you voted Leave or Remain to see the UK descending into such division is very sad.

rural_voter said:

RobD said:

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

No police at all? Find that hard to believe.

There were some, but they definitely weren't needed.

Thanks, yet more fake news I see. Were the police needed in Sunderland?

isam said:

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

I’ll sell a million and buy at zero

The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?

That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

I’ll sell a million and buy at zero

The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?

No man is an island, but I’m not really influenced by who other people are voting for really.

Black_Rook said:

isam said:

Recidivist said:

isam said:

tpfkar said:

rottenborough said:

The trouble with any kind of extension, is the EU elections issue. These elections will be won by Farage's Brexit Party, and his new party will be established in public mind.

He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.

Are you sure? The Brexit vote will split between Con / UKIP / Brexit / Lots of UKIP splinters
I reckon Labour might do quite well.

I just cant see the Tories, as the party that failed to deliver Brexit, being backed by Leavers

I don't think logic has much to do with these things. The Tories are clearly more leavey than Labour and I have a feeling that will get the leavers voting blue. Likewise remainers are likely at their wits end with Labour - but who else can they vote for if they don't want to let the people who have messed everything up back in.

I predict a rerun of 2017.

Sorry, we have our wires crossed, I meant the Euro Elections.

If we get as far as holding European Parliament elections then it goes without saying that the outcome could be rather unpredictable - although if I had to stick my neck out then I would guess that the main casualty in such a poll would be Labour.

I guess the dynamic is Con/UKIP/Brexit/BNP fighting over the Brexit votes, LD/TIG/Green/Nats fighting over the Remain votes, and Corbyn talking about jobs and housing and austerity. I wouldn't underestimate the constituency for the latter, a lot of voters are just not into the whole brexit thing either way.

rural_voter said:

RobD said:

rural_voter said:

RobD said:

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

No police at all? Find that hard to believe.

There were some, but they definitely weren't needed.

Thanks, yet more fake news I see. Were the police needed in Sunderland?

How should I know? I've never been to Sunderland.

More of a rhetorical question, sorry

Barnesian said:

another_richard said:

Barnesian said:

Marco1 said:

@Barnesian....I know it is not right but when MPs lie and go against a national democratic Vote for their own or Party benefit what do they expect ? That they will be welcomed by the public ?

Nandy is a Leaver.

She isn't.

For a more nuanced view

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/second-brexit-referendum-lisa-nandy-labour-mp-wigan-constituents/

Nandy is nuanced but that doesn't make her a Leaver.

Black_Rook said:

nico67 said:

Leave being hijacked by Tommy Robinson . The anger mongers will always find a vehicle to hijack .

Whether you voted Leave or Remain to see the UK descending into such division is very sad.

Speaking more broadly than just about the various ultras, this kind of division is what comes of having years and years of rolling 24 hour media coverage dominated by a single issue. Vast swathes of people who may previously have had little interest in the matter in question start to develop convinced views about it, and disagreement between those holding contrary opinions becomes progressively more widespread in society.

See also: the Scottish independence chasm.

Good post. The sad truth is that politicians have fueled the division by irresponsible rhetoric .

Just some idle but naughty musing ....

The British have a ticklish, quirky and politically perverse sense of humour that surely is the only explanation for BoJo being Foreign Secretary, Jezza outperforming all expectations in 2017 and MayBot losing her majority.

And so as BREXIT becomes like an episode of Monty Python the much maligned and derided Prime Minister twists in the wind and calls a general election where her tenacity, endurance and sheer cussedness is matched against the real prospect of PM Jezza and MayBot is returned with a thumping majority.

Oh how we laughed !! ....

Recidivist said:

RobD said:

Barnesian said:

isam said:

Barnesian said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.

That's because they are voting to Remain!

Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers

The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.

No police at all? Find that hard to believe.

There must have been some but I don't remember seeing one.

I was in the march for over three hours and I really didn't see a single police officer except outside Downing Street. It was quite extraordinary and I commented on it at the time.

Gardenwalker said:

That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

This is why I didn't go

A friend asked me