The Guardian is suggesting that 'there could be a run-off next week between MV3 and whatever the Letwin process produces'
I wouldn't like to bet on whatever the Letwin process produces vs May's deal. The DUP will never vote for May's deal but I wonder whether Francois etc would really stick to that 'shotgun in the mouth" mentality when it's May's deal v Customs Union/Second Ref. I reckon Hoey and a couple of other Labour leavers switching too so it could squeak over the line.
Does anyone see any chance of Betfair paying out on "No" for MV3? The rubric says "market voided if vote does not take place", but not until yesterday did they change the wording to specify that this must include the political declaration. It was originally explicit that MV3 was defined as a third vote *on the Withdrawal Agreement*. Which happened today.
I greened up (For the grand total of two quid profit) on that and moved my money to no on today's vote
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
At this point I will be deeply patronising and tell you, and all those thinking like you, You haven’t the first clue what you are talking about. you don’t know what managed no deal is. What you are saying here is what someone who has been paying no attention at all will say.
The EU has designed and have ready in place a textbook mechanism for managing no deal Brexit. We leave the EU in two weeks time. No taking part in EU elections. And Future relationship talks do not begin again until we bung them the lolly and accept the backstop on any future transition.
BUT IN THE MEANTIME EVERYTHING STAYS EXACTLY THE SAME AS NOW but gets gradually turned off in the coming months to avoid as much pain as can be avoided. No big apocalypse, our membership of the EU Gradually to avoid as much adverse reaction as possible turned off. As sean_t would put it, softly softly tickle the flying monkey turned off. It may take 9 months or more, but then UK is out. Of everything.
This softly softly transition to completely out the EU, the EU itself will offer us, is exactly what no dealers will now be promoting.
And here’s the real kicker as next PM candidate bozzy bear would put it, parliament has absolutely no say in this now, its up to the EU and the British Government, and if the British government disagrees it’s up to the EU. That’s not the kicker, this is: the opposition parties were warned there was only one way to take no deal off the table. The opposition parties need to go back to their members and their voters and explain how in their infinite wisdom they spurned three opportunities to prevent no deal happening. This managed no deal every Noe vote on 29th March initiated
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
But he is no more loathed than was true in April 2017!
The Guardian is suggesting that 'there could be a run-off next week between MV3 and whatever the Letwin process produces'
I wouldn't like to bet on whatever the Letwin process produces vs May's deal. The DUP will never vote for May's deal but I wonder whether Francois etc would really stick to that 'shotgun in the mouth" mentality when it's May's deal v Customs Union/Second Ref. I reckon Hoey and a couple of other Labour leavers switching too so it could squeak over the line.
It appears US and European regulators were aware at least two years before the first 737 Max crash that the method for controlling the plane’s nose angle might not work in certain conditions.
According to Reuters, European Aviation Safety Agency documents from 2016 certified the plane as safe, partly because training would “clearly explain” to pilots the “unusual” situations in which they would need use a manual wheel on the flight deck to adjust the angle. But those situations were not listed in the flight manual used by American Airlines, Reuters said.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
At this point I will be deeply patronising and tell you, and all those thinking like you, You haven’t the first clue what you are talking about. you don’t know what managed no deal is. What you are saying here is what someone who has been paying no attention at all will say.
The EU has designed and have ready in place a textbook mechanism for managing no deal Brexit. We leave the EU in two weeks time. No taking part in EU elections. And Future relationship talks do not begin again until we bung them the lolly and accept the backstop on any future transition.
BUT IN THE MEANTIME EVERYTHING STAYS EXACTLY THE SAME AS NOW but gets gradually turned off in the coming months to avoid as much pain as can be avoided. No big apocalypse, our membership of the EU Gradually to avoid as much adverse reaction as possible turned off. As sean_t would put it, softly softly tickle the flying monkey turned off. It may take 9 months or more, but then UK is out. Of everything.
This softly softly transition to completely out the EU, the EU itself will offer us, is exactly what no dealers will now be promoting.
And here’s the real kicker as next PM candidate bozzy bear would put it, parliament has absolutely no say in this now, its up to the EU and the British Government, and if the British government disagrees it’s up to the EU. That’s not the kicker, this is: the opposition parties were warned there was only one way to take no deal off the table. The opposition parties need to go back to their members and their voters and explain how in their infinite wisdom they spurned three opportunities to prevent no deal happening. This managed no deal every Noe vote on 29th March initiated
Actually since March 2016 I've been prepping the organisation I worked for No Deal, as I recounted on here many times.
I love how the idiots who said No Deal was Project Fear are now trying to assure us all the No Deal is nothing to worry about.
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
Doctor to patient: " I am sorry, Mr Smith, the pointless brain procedure you elected for three years ago is now unavailable on the NHS. We can now offer you a managed full frontal lobotomy. What say you?
Patient: Let's just get on with it. Take back control. They need me more than I need them
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
The key question is 'How many deposits will TIG save?'
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
But he is no more loathed than was true in April 2017!
Oh I think there is a lot more public cut through on the baggage he has bought to Labour.
I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
IDS is very popular in Woodford.
Majority's been sliding though; just under 2500 last time. Was 12,000 some years ago.
The Chingford end of the seat has changed dramatically in recent years as middle class lefties have started families and moved out of inner London to enjoy Epping Forest and benefit from the good local schools, bringing their votes with them. The seat narrowly voted Remain in 2016.
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
Fair play to you.
not to worry - he will change his mind again in a couple of hours :-)
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
But he is no more loathed than was true in April 2017!
He might be, but any reasons to hold the nose and vote for him will be stronger than ever.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
But he is no more loathed than was true in April 2017!
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
Fair play to you.
No. The extent of the damage done means people like that are unforgivable.
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
It's usual to quote Luke 15:10 at this point but frankly I feel too sorry for genuine Leavers who have been well and truly led up the garden path.
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
Fair play to you.
not to worry - he will change his mind again in a couple of hours :-)
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
The thing I think is going to be different from the last election is that people will believe there is a real chance Corbyn could be PM, whereas last time only his most naïve of supporters thought so. Voting Labour last time was somewhat a free hit against the idea of the much believed landslide of TMay.The reality of the most left wing government ever in the UK may be sobering for some.
A landslide was not the general expectation by the final week of the 2017 campaign - indeed several polls pointed to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
But he is no more loathed than was true in April 2017!
Oh I think there is a lot more public cut through on the baggage he has bought to Labour.
Otherwise you should be at least 10 points clear
But that same baggage was then giving the Tories a lead of over 20%!
Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.
Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
Fair play to you.
No. The extent of the damage done means people like that are unforgivable.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
By 'run-off' do they mean an either/or vote? Otherwise with 2 yes/no votes we could just end up with two more No votes.
Probably has to be an either/or for that reason. Dunno how that's made to work in the current HoC though.
Dead easy and something they should have done well before now. We don't have AYE and NO lobbies, we have Option A (May deal?) and Option B (customs referendum?) lobbies. Don't like either of them? fine - but you're abstaining then. All about taking away the option to simply vote No.
I wasn't particularly bothered by the kind of deal that was struck to leave the EU, but the fact it is March 29th 2019 and we haven't left with No Deal having failed to agree A deal, is another to add to the long list of disgrace.
Con, Labour, Lib Dem or TIG, all any of them can do is break promises and act in their own self interest. Time to be done with all four of the old fashioned, out of touch parties.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I had a customer rant at me today how he saw himself as socialist, but would never vote for that anti Semitic tw*t Corbyn. He was voting for the tories 3x with a postal vote (three member ward).
I don’t see how the Tory Party can fight the next GE without first splitting given some of the comments flying around today. The sooner the likes of Grieve, Boles and Morgan join Allen, Soubry and Wollaston the better.
I wasn't particularly bothered by the kind of deal that was struck to leave the EU, but the fact it is March 29th 2019 and we haven't left with No Deal having failed to agree A deal, is another to add to the long list of disgrace.
Con, Labour, Lib Dem or TIG, all any of them can do is break promises and act in their own self interest. Time to be done with all four of the old fashioned, out of touch parties.
A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
An equally interesting but different prospect beckons IMO.
1. We extend for a GE. 2. Tories choose new leader - a Leaver. 3. Labour offer REF2 in their manifesto. 4. Tories offer 'proper' Brexit.
The 39 billion euro question - is the enthusiasm amongst ardent remainers to stop Brexit sufficient to sweep Corbyn to number 10 despite the fact of him being Corbyn?
My answer to that, based on how I see it here and now, is ... YES.
I wasn't particularly bothered by the kind of deal that was struck to leave the EU, but the fact it is March 29th 2019 and we haven't left with No Deal having failed to agree A deal, is another to add to the long list of disgrace.
Con, Labour, Lib Dem or TIG, all any of them can do is break promises and act in their own self interest. Time to be done with all four of the old fashioned, out of touch parties.
and replace them with what though? President Farage?
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
The thing I think is going to be different from the last election is that people will believe there is a real chance Corbyn could be PM, whereas last time only his most naïve of supporters thought so. Voting Labour last time was somewhat a free hit against the idea of the much believed landslide of TMay.The reality of the most left wing government ever in the UK may be sobering for some.
A landslide was not the general expectation by the final week of the 2017 campaign - indeed several polls pointed to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament.
The yougov constituency polls that showed something weird happening were mocked though. Kensington going labour?
I wasn't particularly bothered by the kind of deal that was struck to leave the EU, but the fact it is March 29th 2019 and we haven't left with No Deal having failed to agree A deal, is another to add to the long list of disgrace.
Con, Labour, Lib Dem or TIG, all any of them can do is break promises and act in their own self interest. Time to be done with all four of the old fashioned, out of touch parties.
and replace them with what though? President Farage?
He would be better in my opinion than any of the other leaders, but my hope is for the SDP to make an impact.
A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
An equally interesting but different prospect beckons IMO.
1. We extend for a GE. 2. Tories choose new leader - a Leaver. 3. Labour offer REF2 in their manifesto. 4. Tories offer 'proper' Brexit.
The 39 billion euro question - is the enthusiasm amongst ardent remainers to stop Brexit sufficient to sweep Corbyn to number 10 despite the fact of him being Corbyn?
My answer to that, based on how I see it here and now, is ... YES.
I could NEVER vote to actively bring in a Corbyn government. I would vote TIG or LibDem
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
The thing I think is going to be different from the last election is that people will believe there is a real chance Corbyn could be PM, whereas last time only his most naïve of supporters thought so. Voting Labour last time was somewhat a free hit against the idea of the much believed landslide of TMay.The reality of the most left wing government ever in the UK may be sobering for some.
A landslide was not the general expectation by the final week of the 2017 campaign - indeed several polls pointed to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament.
The yougov constituency polls that showed something weird happening were mocked though. Kensington going labour?
The only pollsters that down weighted the politically engaged apparently
I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
IDS is very popular in Woodford.
Majority's been sliding though; just under 2500 last time. Was 12,000 some years ago.
The Chingford end of the seat has changed dramatically in recent years as middle class lefties have started families and moved out of inner London to enjoy Epping Forest and benefit from the good local schools, bringing their votes with them. The seat narrowly voted Remain in 2016.
That’s a polite left wing version of white flight “we moved out for the good local schools”. Of course they did.
Does anyone see any chance of Betfair paying out on "No" for MV3? The rubric says "market voided if vote does not take place", but not until yesterday did they change the wording to specify that this must include the political declaration. It was originally explicit that MV3 was defined as a third vote *on the Withdrawal Agreement*. Which happened today.
I greened up (For the grand total of two quid profit) on that and moved my money to no on today's vote
Parliament's own twitter said this was not MV3 and the government said this wasn't MV3.
I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
IDS is very popular in Woodford.
Majority's been sliding though; just under 2500 last time. Was 12,000 some years ago.
The Chingford end of the seat has changed dramatically in recent years as middle class lefties have started families and moved out of inner London to enjoy Epping Forest and benefit from the good local schools, bringing their votes with them. The seat narrowly voted Remain in 2016.
That’s a polite left wing version of white flight “we moved out for the good local schools”. Of course they did.
A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
An equally interesting but different prospect beckons IMO.
1. We extend for a GE. 2. Tories choose new leader - a Leaver. 3. Labour offer REF2 in their manifesto. 4. Tories offer 'proper' Brexit.
The 39 billion euro question - is the enthusiasm amongst ardent remainers to stop Brexit sufficient to sweep Corbyn to number 10 despite the fact of him being Corbyn?
My answer to that, based on how I see it here and now, is ... YES.
They would support him. But, I think it could also seal the deal for the Conservatives in places like Bishop Auckland, Penistone, and Ashfield.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.
They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.
They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.
However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.
Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.
The thing I think is going to be different from the last election is that people will believe there is a real chance Corbyn could be PM, whereas last time only his most naïve of supporters thought so. Voting Labour last time was somewhat a free hit against the idea of the much believed landslide of TMay.The reality of the most left wing government ever in the UK may be sobering for some.
A landslide was not the general expectation by the final week of the 2017 campaign - indeed several polls pointed to the distinct possibility of a Hung Parliament.
The yougov constituency polls that showed something weird happening were mocked though. Kensington going labour?
Beyond that , there were several polls showing a Tory lead in low single figures. Moreover the clear Tory surge in Scotland implied things were going less well for them in the rest of GB.
A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
An equally interesting but different prospect beckons IMO.
1. We extend for a GE. 2. Tories choose new leader - a Leaver. 3. Labour offer REF2 in their manifesto. 4. Tories offer 'proper' Brexit.
The 39 billion euro question - is the enthusiasm amongst ardent remainers to stop Brexit sufficient to sweep Corbyn to number 10 despite the fact of him being Corbyn?
My answer to that, based on how I see it here and now, is ... YES.
I must listen out among my friends and neighbours. I live in Priti Patel's constituency and Priti has voted fairly consistently for No Deal and Out. I wonder how many Conservatives will be happy with her now if, in effect she has brought down a Conservative Government.
I wasn't particularly bothered by the kind of deal that was struck to leave the EU, but the fact it is March 29th 2019 and we haven't left with No Deal having failed to agree A deal, is another to add to the long list of disgrace.
Con, Labour, Lib Dem or TIG, all any of them can do is break promises and act in their own self interest. Time to be done with all four of the old fashioned, out of touch parties.
and replace them with what though? President Farage?
He would be better in my opinion than any of the other leaders, but my hope is for the SDP to make an impact.
I believe he has a great admiration for Mr Putin. I am sure that is very much in the interests of all good patriots
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
They’ve already been negotiated and signed
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
Could be interesting if May brings MV3 back against the IV winner.
Likely to be lots of abstentions and neither will get a proper majority of the HOC . The SNP. Lib Dems, PC and TIG won’t back anything unless it’s a second vote or Norway plus at worst .
Does anyone see any chance of Betfair paying out on "No" for MV3? The rubric says "market voided if vote does not take place", but not until yesterday did they change the wording to specify that this must include the political declaration. It was originally explicit that MV3 was defined as a third vote *on the Withdrawal Agreement*. Which happened today.
I greened up (For the grand total of two quid profit) on that and moved my money to no on today's vote
Parliament's own twitter said this was not MV3 and the government said this wasn't MV3.
So unfortunately I think you are out of luck.
The market voiding will only cost me two quid though..
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I had a customer rant at me today how he saw himself as socialist, but would never vote for that anti Semitic tw*t Corbyn. He was voting for the tories 3x with a postal vote (three member ward).
He sound a bit weird - and can hardly be a socialist if he intends voting Tory given the availability of other alternatives.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I find the wishful thinking about Corbyn and McDonell amongst otherwise decent people genuinely frightening. We are in a mess. I think a second referendum is now the only solution. Remain needs to be an option, a/the deal also an option but is "no deal" to be offered? If so how to structure it? If not then will a festering betrayal myth spawn some very ugly politics? For God's sake though, why don't the Labour moderates stop collaborating?
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I had a customer rant at me today how he saw himself as socialist, but would never vote for that anti Semitic tw*t Corbyn. He was voting for the tories 3x with a postal vote (three member ward).
He sound a bit weird - and can hardly be a socialist if he intends voting Tory given the availability of other alternatives.
Of course he can.
I’m not a socialist, but would be sorely tempted to vote for Labour if a Conservative PM revoked Article 50 without a referendum.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
The idea that the UK would never be able to strike a deal with the EU after leaving without one on 12th April is an oxymoron.
As is the idea that May has somehow already reached a deal, when all she has really done is left the UK open to 21 months of further negotiations which will drag on and on given that the EU will have the UK in an armlock.
If you think the UK should revoke, fair enough, I understand that position.
However, if you accept that the UK should leave, it is much better now to move to leave on 12th April before signing anything, with our cards intact and with the EU under real pressure to offer us something better in the subsequent negotiations. Their whole negotiating strategy to date has been to offer nothing in the expectation that the UK would fold, a not unreasonable approach given the willingness of May to jump as high as she was told and with a parliament of Remainers hoping to covertly frustrate the referendum result. Let's not pretend that the UK could not and cannot get something better than what is at the moment on offer.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
They’ve already been negotiated and signed
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I had a customer rant at me today how he saw himself as socialist, but would never vote for that anti Semitic tw*t Corbyn. He was voting for the tories 3x with a postal vote (three member ward).
He sound a bit weird - and can hardly be a socialist if he intends voting Tory given the availability of other alternatives.
His words. People are strange and don’t fit into what we might think is rational.
Dead easy and something they should have done well before now. We don't have AYE and NO lobbies, we have Option A (May deal?) and Option B (customs referendum?) lobbies. Don't like either of them? fine - but you're abstaining then. All about taking away the option to simply vote No.
OK - but these are still indicative votes. So that process narrows down the options, reaches a conclusion, which then has to be passed by the House .... ERG vote against because they hate Europe. Labour vote against because they hate the Tories. No progress.
I don’t see how the Tory Party can fight the next GE without first splitting given some of the comments flying around today. The sooner the likes of Grieve, Boles and Morgan join Allen, Soubry and Wollaston the better.
Well I can see why you would like that. Personally I would rather see the likes of Rees Mogg, Francois Bone et al join UKIP or BNP or any party where they can play out their pathetic little nationalistic fantasies. They are not Conservatives, they are not even right wing Tories, many of them are nothing more than nasty little crypto-fascists.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
The idea that the UK would never be able to strike a deal with the EU after leaving without one on 12th April is an oxymoron.
As is the idea that May has somehow already reached a deal, when all she has really done is left the UK open to 21 months of further negotiations which will drag on and on given that the EU will have the UK in an armlock.
If you think the UK should revoke, fair enough, I understand that position.
However, if you accept that the UK should leave, it is much better now to move to leave on 12th April before signing anything, with our cards intact and with the EU under real pressure to offer us something better in the subsequent negotiations. Their whole negotiating strategy to date has been to offer nothing in the expectation that the UK would fold, a not unreasonable approach given the willingness of May to jump as high as she was told and with a parliament of Remainers hoping to covertly frustrate the referendum result. Let's not pretend that the UK could not and cannot get something better than what is at the moment on offer.
I don’t see how the Tory Party can fight the next GE without first splitting given some of the comments flying around today. The sooner the likes of Grieve, Boles and Morgan join Allen, Soubry and Wollaston the better.
Well I can see why you would like that. Personally I would rather see the likes of Rees Mogg, Francois Bone et al join UKIP or BNP or any party where they can play out their pathetic little nationalistic fantasies. They are not Conservatives, they are not even right wing Tories, many of them are nothing more than nasty little crypto-fascists.
One day you’ll say something sensible. Not today, sadly.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I had a customer rant at me today how he saw himself as socialist, but would never vote for that anti Semitic tw*t Corbyn. He was voting for the tories 3x with a postal vote (three member ward).
He sound a bit weird - and can hardly be a socialist if he intends voting Tory given the availability of other alternatives.
Not so if that is the only way of stopping Corbyn Labour. I will have a similar dilemma. If I confirm the Labour candidate is not explicitly anti-Corbyn do I simply vote LD or abstain or must I vote Tory if there is a danger of Labour winning the seat? I know many will genuinely disagree but for me stopping Corbyn is the number one priority. He is way outside western democratic norms.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I find the wishful thinking about Corbyn and McDonell amongst otherwise decent people genuinely frightening. We are in a mess. I think a second referendum is now the only solution. Remain needs to be an option, a/the deal also an option but is "no deal" to be offered? If so how to structure it? If not then will a festering betrayal myth spawn some very ugly politics? For God's sake though, why don't the Labour moderates stop collaborating?
I rather disagree there. Most people are utterly sick of Brexit and desperate to move on. Despite the obsession of the commentariat, I doubt very much that an election called for this May would turn out to be a Brexit election - beyond the first ten days. People will be very receptive to other issues being raised - as was the case in 2017.
A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
An equally interesting but different prospect beckons IMO.
1. We extend for a GE. 2. Tories choose new leader - a Leaver. 3. Labour offer REF2 in their manifesto. 4. Tories offer 'proper' Brexit.
The 39 billion euro question - is the enthusiasm amongst ardent remainers to stop Brexit sufficient to sweep Corbyn to number 10 despite the fact of him being Corbyn?
My answer to that, based on how I see it here and now, is ... YES.
Well I think an early GE would certainly see a great deal of tactical voting by remainers and, whilst a new parliament might not have a Labour majority, it would have a majority of members elected on some kind of commitment to a new referendum (since, as you suggest, Labour would have to make commitment, however qualified, to hold one).
And I suggest remain voters are more organised and determined than leave voters, who will be angry, demoralised and unclear whether they can trust the Tories to deliver. So some will peel off to the Farage/Brexit party.
I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?
23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
"The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.
Yeah right.
I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
Sadly!
I suspect that is true outside a few constituencies - though I don't think Corbyn is generally perceived as being anti-Semitic himself. His problem arises from the company he has kept over the years.
I
He sound a bit weird - and can hardly be a socialist if he intends voting Tory given the availability of other alternatives.
Not so if that is the only way of stopping Corbyn Labour. I will have a similar dilemma. If I confirm the Labour candidate is not explicitly anti-Corbyn do I simply vote LD or abstain or must I vote Tory if there is a danger of Labour winning the seat? I know many will genuinely disagree but for me stopping Corbyn is the number one priority. He is way outside western democratic norms.
But someone who is determined to continue with the neo-liberalism of the last 40 years is not a socialist - whatever label he might seek to apply to himself. I myself am firmly committed to spoing my ballot paper in this very marginal seat - albeit for non -Corbyn related reasons.
I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
IDS is very popular in Woodford.
Majority's been sliding though; just under 2500 last time. Was 12,000 some years ago.
The Chingford end of the seat has changed dramatically in recent years as middle class lefties have started families and moved out of inner London to enjoy Epping Forest and benefit from the good local schools, bringing their votes with them. The seat narrowly voted Remain in 2016.
That’s a polite left wing version of white flight “we moved out for the good local schools”. Of course they did.
lefties? no not lefties, just Londoners who can't afford a house for a family in the centre. Socially liberal and inclusive, sure, that's why people choose London...socialist workers, no.
I don’t see how the Tory Party can fight the next GE without first splitting given some of the comments flying around today. The sooner the likes of Grieve, Boles and Morgan join Allen, Soubry and Wollaston the better.
Well I can see why you would like that. Personally I would rather see the likes of Rees Mogg, Francois Bone et al join UKIP or BNP or any party where they can play out their pathetic little nationalistic fantasies. They are not Conservatives, they are not even right wing Tories, many of them are nothing more than nasty little crypto-fascists.
One day you’ll say something sensible. Not today, sadly.
One day you will think of a witty intellectual repost...oh actually I don't think that is going to happen today or any other day.
Quite frankly, anyone that still thinks the madness known as Brexit is still of benefit to anyone other than Vladimir Putin, and a few short-selling traders really needs therapy. Wake up. It is a mess. It is likely to get worse. It is pointless. It gives me zero pleasure to say "I told you so" to leavers, because I dearly wish it had all never happened. Sometimes it is fun to debate, but in fact the whole sorry charade is just so sad!
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
They’ve already been negotiated and signed
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed...
Of course with no airlines deal we don’t need a third runway at Heathrow
Perhaps the good people of Richmond might reconsider?
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
They’ve already been negotiated and signed
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed...
Of course with no airlines deal we don’t need a third runway at Heathrow
Perhaps the good people of Richmond might reconsider?
are they actually going back on their minideal? Surely not?
The EU have after all said no minideals throughout whilst continuing to agrees bits and pieces.
I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
IDS is very popular in Woodford.
Majority's been sliding though; just under 2500 last time. Was 12,000 some years ago.
The Chingford end of the seat has changed dramatically in recent years as middle class lefties have started families and moved out of inner London to enjoy Epping Forest and benefit from the good local schools, bringing their votes with them. The seat narrowly voted Remain in 2016.
That’s a polite left wing version of white flight “we moved out for the good local schools”. Of course they did.
lefties? no not lefties, just Londoners who can't afford a house for a family in the centre. Socially liberal and inclusive, sure, that's why people choose London...socialist workers, no.
I moved out of the centre of London to benefit from the good local school. Does that make me a leftie?
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
They’ve already been negotiated and signed
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed...
Of course with no airlines deal we don’t need a third runway at Heathrow
Perhaps the good people of Richmond might reconsider?
are they actually going back on their minideal? Surely not?
The EU have after all said no minideals throughout whilst continuing to agrees bits and pieces.
Personally I think they are communicating misinformation to naive journalists who are tweeting without thought
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
The idea that the UK would never be able to strike a deal with the EU after leaving without one on 12th April is an oxymoron.
As is the idea that May has somehow already reached a deal, when all she has really done is left the UK open to 21 months of further negotiations which will drag on and on given that the EU will have the UK in an armlock.
If you think the UK should revoke, fair enough, I understand that position.
However, if you accept that the UK should leave, it is much better now to move to leave on 12th April before signing anything, with our cards intact and with the EU under real pressure to offer us something better in the subsequent negotiations. Their whole negotiating strategy to date has been to offer nothing in the expectation that the UK would fold, a not unreasonable approach given the willingness of May to jump as high as she was told and with a parliament of Remainers hoping to covertly frustrate the referendum result. Let's not pretend that the UK could not and cannot get something better than what is at the moment on offer.
Our cards intact? Oh dear oh dear!!
No legal obligation on the UK to pay over £39,000,000,000 to the EU.
The reality of trade in the interim on WTO terms threatening the EU's huge 2:1 net surplus of exports to the UK.
Perishable EU agricultural exports to the UK under particular threat, given that tariffs under WTO terms would generally be higher in the agricultural sector.
Varadkar under huge pressure to climb down or otherwise impose border controls or face controls on Irish exports to the EU.
Removal of the threat of the backstop threatening the UK's territorial integrity.
The question of whether the UK leaves having been settled, there will no longer be any point of the EU continuing to offer nothing in negotiations in the hope of the UK ending up staying in.
Yes, the UK's negotiating position would be immeasurably better having left on 13th April if we agree to nothing in the interim.
The trouble with any kind of extension, is the EU elections issue. These elections will be won by Farage's Brexit Party, and his new party will be established in public mind.
He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.
Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.
If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch
Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.
2.1. No deal. Cash in
Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.
Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
They’ve already been negotiated and signed
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed...
Of course with no airlines deal we don’t need a third runway at Heathrow
Perhaps the good people of Richmond might reconsider?
are they actually going back on their minideal? Surely not?
The EU have after all said no minideals throughout whilst continuing to agrees bits and pieces.
The trouble with any kind of extension, is the EU elections issue. These elections will be won by Farage's Brexit Party, and his new party will be established in public mind.
He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.
The establishment have more or less sent a letter begging for that.
Comments
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1111664192631640064
The EU has designed and have ready in place a textbook mechanism for managing no deal Brexit. We leave the EU in two weeks time. No taking part in EU elections. And Future relationship talks do not begin again until we bung them the lolly and accept the backstop on any future transition.
BUT IN THE MEANTIME EVERYTHING STAYS EXACTLY THE SAME AS NOW but gets gradually turned off in the coming months to avoid as much pain as can be avoided. No big apocalypse, our membership of the EU Gradually to avoid as much adverse reaction as possible turned off. As sean_t would put it, softly softly tickle the flying monkey turned off. It may take 9 months or more, but then UK is out. Of everything.
This softly softly transition to completely out the EU, the EU itself will offer us, is exactly what no dealers will now be promoting.
And here’s the real kicker as next PM candidate bozzy bear would put it, parliament has absolutely no say in this now, its up to the EU and the British Government, and if the British government disagrees it’s up to the EU. That’s not the kicker, this is: the opposition parties were warned there was only one way to take no deal off the table. The opposition parties need to go back to their members and their voters and explain how in their infinite wisdom they spurned three opportunities to prevent no deal happening. This managed no deal every Noe vote on 29th March initiated
Well, when I say shame - I might not mean that literally.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/29/investigators-believe-anti-stall-activated-in-ethiopian-737-max-report-us-regulators-lawsuit-boeing
The US Department of Justice is investigating Boeing’s development process, while the government is to review how the FAA certifies new aircraft, with questions being asked about the extent of self-certification by manufacturers.
It appears US and European regulators were aware at least two years before the first 737 Max crash that the method for controlling the plane’s nose angle might not work in certain conditions.
According to Reuters, European Aviation Safety Agency documents from 2016 certified the plane as safe, partly because training would “clearly explain” to pilots the “unusual” situations in which they would need use a manual wheel on the flight deck to adjust the angle. But those situations were not listed in the flight manual used by American Airlines, Reuters said.
I love how the idiots who said No Deal was Project Fear are now trying to assure us all the No Deal is nothing to worry about.
You sir have a credibility issue.
Patient: Let's just get on with it. Take back control. They need me more than I need them
Doctor: Of course they do. Nurse.....
Otherwise you should be at least 10 points clear
Fairer to say that they might well be prepared to call his bluff.
Commiserations.
Con, Labour, Lib Dem or TIG, all any of them can do is break promises and act in their own self interest. Time to be done with all four of the old fashioned, out of touch parties.
1. We extend for a GE.
2. Tories choose new leader - a Leaver.
3. Labour offer REF2 in their manifesto.
4. Tories offer 'proper' Brexit.
The 39 billion euro question - is the enthusiasm amongst ardent remainers to stop Brexit sufficient to sweep Corbyn to number 10 despite the fact of him being Corbyn?
My answer to that, based on how I see it here and now, is ... YES.
That’s a polite left wing version of white flight “we moved out for the good local schools”. Of course they did.
So unfortunately I think you are out of luck.
But I guess it’s ok for the Eu to rip up an agreement
Likely to be lots of abstentions and neither will get a proper majority of the HOC . The SNP. Lib Dems, PC and TIG won’t back anything unless it’s a second vote or Norway plus at worst .
I’m not a socialist, but would be sorely tempted to vote for Labour if a Conservative PM revoked Article 50 without a referendum.
As is the idea that May has somehow already reached a deal, when all she has really done is left the UK open to 21 months of further negotiations which will drag on and on given that the EU will have the UK in an armlock.
If you think the UK should revoke, fair enough, I understand that position.
However, if you accept that the UK should leave, it is much better now to move to leave on 12th April before signing anything, with our cards intact and with the EU under real pressure to offer us something better in the subsequent negotiations. Their whole negotiating strategy to date has been to offer nothing in the expectation that the UK would fold, a not unreasonable approach given the willingness of May to jump as high as she was told and with a parliament of Remainers hoping to covertly frustrate the referendum result. Let's not pretend that the UK could not and cannot get something better than what is at the moment on offer.
Their ‘loyalty’ is to themselves alone.
And I suggest remain voters are more organised and determined than leave voters, who will be angry, demoralised and unclear whether they can trust the Tories to deliver. So some will peel off to the Farage/Brexit party.
So a GE would probably lead ultimately to remain.
Quite frankly, anyone that still thinks the madness known as Brexit is still of benefit to anyone other than Vladimir Putin, and a few short-selling traders really needs therapy. Wake up. It is a mess. It is likely to get worse. It is pointless. It gives me zero pleasure to say "I told you so" to leavers, because I dearly wish it had all never happened. Sometimes it is fun to debate, but in fact the whole sorry charade is just so sad!
Have a great weekend everyone!
Perhaps the good people of Richmond might reconsider?
The EU have after all said no minideals throughout whilst continuing to agrees bits and pieces.
Of course there are going to be mini deals
The reality of trade in the interim on WTO terms threatening the EU's huge 2:1 net surplus of exports to the UK.
Perishable EU agricultural exports to the UK under particular threat, given that tariffs under WTO terms would generally be higher in the agricultural sector.
Varadkar under huge pressure to climb down or otherwise impose border controls or face controls on Irish exports to the EU.
Removal of the threat of the backstop threatening the UK's territorial integrity.
The question of whether the UK leaves having been settled, there will no longer be any point of the EU continuing to offer nothing in negotiations in the hope of the UK ending up staying in.
Yes, the UK's negotiating position would be immeasurably better having left on 13th April if we agree to nothing in the interim.
He will then be running at next GE on a full blown betrayal of the People act. Dangerous waters.
Sectoral mini-deals are not an option.
https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1111648694703742976
May lost
Will continue to seek support for her deal, says spokesperson
Jeremy Corbyn called for an election
#groundhogvote