Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

1457910

Comments

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Mail, Independent and many commentators predicting early GE.

    But if there is an early GE, Con will not have time to choose new leader so it'll be May v Corbyn.

    Yet Corbyn is still 7.6 for next PM?

    My own view is that an early GE doesn't make sense as key decision re Brexit must be made by 12 April. Assuming we do extend and it's for a reasonable length of time then there's no need for an immediate GE. Con can elect their new leader and then next step is up to that new leader.
  • Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    Corbyn and the idiotic ultra brexiteers are equally responsible
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2019

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    .
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    Isn't it reasonable to judge people by the company they keep?
    Who's keeping their company? This was a binary choice in a constitutionally vital referendum. Do you like fish and chips? Aren't you worried that they like fish and chips? Do you wear underpants? So do they I'd be willing to bet. The idea that this would have any bearing on anyone's thought process on such an issue fills me with utter despair. We have lived with the EU for 40 odd years. Get a ****ing grip, make an informed decision, and have the strength of mind and character not to be deterred by memes, optics, and any other fluff.
    Hitler was a vegetarian. Just because he was we don’t tar all fascists with that defect.
    If you want to read some great blogs I suggest googling was Hitler a vegetarian? You’ll find a selection of interesting blogs where vegetarians try to disprove this. Most would say he followed a vegetarian diet towards the end of his life, but he did enjoy a wurst earlier in his life so this is proof to some that he couldn’t have been vegetarian.

    People only say Hitler was a vegetarian environmentalist to make him look bad
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    HYUFD said:

    So the WA fails again but by a narrower margin, seems some Labour MPs chickened out of backing it once they saw it would lose. So the Commons looks like voting for permanent Customs Union on Monday, then all depends on whether it votes to contest the EU Parliament elections too

    HYUFD said:

    So the WA fails again but by a narrower margin, seems some Labour MPs chickened out of backing it once they saw it would lose. So the Commons looks like voting for permanent Customs Union on Monday, then all depends on whether it votes to contest the EU Parliament elections too

    Wonder how many Tory MPs will vote for that and against their own manifesto. That will destroy any credibility they have - as individuals - or as a party if it succeeds.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    rpjs said:

    So I was wondering what couldn't actually be worse than the current mess in the UK. Here's my tentative list:

    1) A military coup
    2) The Queen suspending Parliament and reinstating Divine Right
    3) "I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords"
    4) Case Nightmare Green*

    * from Charles Stross's "Laundry" Lovecraftian horror novels, where in the latest installment the stars have come right and the PM is in fact the Black Pharaoh Nyarlathotep.

    Any more suggestions?

    We become the Soviet Union?
  • HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    If that is true, the Tory party is heading for self-destruction.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    May now faces a choice.

    Election, Customs Union, No Deal, Referendum, Revocation.

    Which one is least terrible for her, and the Tory Party, and can be blamed easiest on “Parliament”?

    To me, that’s a Referendum, but I am not May.

    I think we can remove the GE from that list. I'm not at all convinced that the EU27 will be willing to extend A50 to allow for an election (which may very well produce another Parliament that can't find a majority for any form of Brexit plan,) and even if they do then how many Tory MPs are going to want to go into another election with Mrs May as leader, and with in all likelihood either no manifesto policy at all on Europe, or with one that much or even most of both the Parliamentary party and the rank-and-file membership repudiates.

    The customs union is a matter for the future relationship and is therefore irrelevant, so surely we're back to Referendum, Revocation or Hard Brexit? I concur that the referendum is probably the least unpalatable choice on this very nasty menu for the Conservative Party, but I don't think that the PM will take the initiative and try to whip for this option herself, as she's always rejected it in the past and there's every indication that her pig-headed, run-down-the-clock strategy w.r.t. the Deal is just going to continue until the clock actually does run down to zero. I therefore think that the only way she'll contemplate having another referendum is if Parliament itself finds a majority for it through the Letwin process.

    Besides, getting MPs to vote for it first is the only way she might then be able to deflect some of the opprobrium from convinced Leavers out in the country away from herself and her party, and onto the Commons as a whole.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    No man is an island, but I’m not really influenced by who other people are voting for really.
    Might make it difficult to persuade other people to vote for what your voting for, even with the basic doorstep stuff.

    'Ignore those Fascist pigs, I'm a chap of high minded principle so vote the way I'm voting. Or not, whatever.'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    This is the sort shit that causes problems. Dial it down.
    We all agree that it should be dialled down, and violence must be condemned. However, if people see that trying to achieve change through adherence to democratic processes does not work then they will seek other means. John McDonnell, amongst others has not hidden his enthusiasm for direct action.

    The public voted to Leave the EU in a referendum. 3 years later we are still in the EU, and there is no obvious sign we are leaving anytime soon.
    There is no justification for direct action or the menacing “other means”, none.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's really not very bright, is she?
    Apparently not. My mum lives in her constituency and said she tries terribly hard, which is a euphemism I recognize from her teaching days.
    If anyone ever asks me about the Dunning–Kruger effect, I shall just point to Priti Patel.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    isam said:
    When he says the 'referendum result' I presume he's smuggling in the notion that this must entail absolutely no future arrangements with the EU whatsoever.
    Just watched it and it's even weirder than I thought. It's actually smuggling in the notion that Brexit has already been cancelled. This has to be some kind of rabble-rousing exercise.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    No man is an island, but I’m not really influenced by who other people are voting for really.
    Might make it difficult to persuade other people to vote for your voting for, even with the basic doorstep stuff.

    'Ignore those Fascist pigs, I'm a chap of high minded principle so vote the way I'm voting. Or not, whatever.'
    I’m sure it does make it difficult, yes. That’s why parties and media always dig dirt on their rivals and highlight it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888




    Did everyone spot the woman holding up the pro-Remain poster in the corner? :lol:
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    Interesting. I sort of see Raab/Leadsom/Johnson/Gove fishing in one part of the pond with Hunt/Javid/Hancock in the other. The question is the extent to which past loyalties (Javid and Hancock were both backed by GO as I recall) and past issues (Gove/Johnson and of course Leadsom's comment last time round) will matter.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    Corbyn and the idiotic ultra brexiteers are equally responsible
    May is 100% respomnsible
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    This is the sort shit that causes problems. Dial it down.
    We all agree that it should be dialled down, and violence must be condemned. However, if people see that trying to achieve change through adherence to democratic processes does not work then they will seek other means. John McDonnell, amongst others has not hidden his enthusiasm for direct action.

    The public voted to Leave the EU in a referendum. 3 years later we are still in the EU, and there is no obvious sign we are leaving anytime soon.
    There is no justification for direct action or the menacing “other means”, none.
    If you were sentenced to a year in prison and they still hadn’t let you out after four, do you think you’d still just keep writing nice letters asking them if they might set you free?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    May now faces a choice.

    Election, Customs Union, No Deal, Referendum, Revocation.

    Which one is least terrible for her, and the Tory Party, and can be blamed easiest on “Parliament”?

    To me, that’s a Referendum, but I am not May.

    I think we can remove the GE from that list. I'm not at all convinced that the EU27 will be willing to extend A50 to allow for an election (which may very well produce another Parliament that can't find a majority for any form of Brexit plan,) and even if they do then how many Tory MPs are going to want to go into another election with Mrs May as leader, and with in all likelihood either no manifesto policy at all on Europe, or with one that much or even most of both the Parliamentary party and the rank-and-file membership repudiates.

    The customs union is a matter for the future relationship and is therefore irrelevant, so surely we're back to Referendum, Revocation or Hard Brexit? I concur that the referendum is probably the least unpalatable choice on this very nasty menu for the Conservative Party, but I don't think that the PM will take the initiative and try to whip for this option herself, as she's always rejected it in the past and there's every indication that her pig-headed, run-down-the-clock strategy w.r.t. the Deal is just going to continue until the clock actually does run down to zero. I therefore think that the only way she'll contemplate having another referendum is if Parliament itself finds a majority for it through the Letwin process.

    Besides, getting MPs to vote for it first is the only way she might then be able to deflect some of the opprobrium from convinced Leavers out in the country away from herself and her party, and onto the Commons as a whole.
    Its because a CU would be a matter for future discussion that passing the WDA with CU commitment is advantageous ie it would allow the EU to be exited but with the future direction of travel to be sorted out later.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019
    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I find he has quite a lot in common with my movement.
    Bowel?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    MikeL said:

    Mail, Independent and many commentators predicting early GE.

    But if there is an early GE, Con will not have time to choose new leader so it'll be May v Corbyn.

    Yet Corbyn is still 7.6 for next PM?

    My own view is that an early GE doesn't make sense as key decision re Brexit must be made by 12 April. Assuming we do extend and it's for a reasonable length of time then there's no need for an immediate GE. Con can elect their new leader and then next step is up to that new leader.

    It will not surprise me if May only calls a GE for the simple reason she needs to tell the EU she's doing something "constructive" (well...) with her long extension.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Direct action is not necessarily violent or threatening, however. It doesn't mean quite the same - and can include all kinds of things.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Scott_P said:
    Dacre is still exerting an influence from his editor-in-chief role. This is classic Dacre stuff.
    Yes, the Tory press is an interesting subject. If a General Election were to occur I cannot see them backing anyone but the Tories as Corbyn is the alternative. I say this even if Revoke or a long delay is implemented. The Tory press has much of the blame for even creating these problems, they drip poison into the minds of people and whip up hysteria about relatively trivial matters. We are not just badly governed but subject to a media that is completely out of control.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the hostess to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    All that money, the best education, and yet the Goldsmith boys appear to be congenitally retarded.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    I suppose he meant political establishment
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    You don't think people won't look at the footage of Saturday's remain march and tonight's leave protest and draw their own conclusions? Obviously you can't judge all leavers by tonight's crowd but it's not doing much to dispel the stereotype although I am personally quite happy for Tommy Robinson to become the poster boy for leave!.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    Interesting. I sort of see Raab/Leadsom/Johnson/Gove fishing in one part of the pond with Hunt/Javid/Hancock in the other. The question is the extent to which past loyalties (Javid and Hancock were both backed by GO as I recall) and past issues (Gove/Johnson and of course Leadsom's comment last time round) will matter.
    I'd have thought anyone associated with George Osborne will be in trouble with the selectorate from the get go given how George has been behaving in the past few years....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    OMG no more imminent election talk from the media .

    More nonsense. Any election won’t happen until after Brexit . So the Tories who are more reliant on Leavers are going to go to the country after having failed to deliver Brexit . Exactly what will the manifesto say , Mays deal ! After the ERG have spent months convincing Leavers her deal is rubbish and making many Leavers no dealers will the manifesto say no deal .

    Are they looking to get completely wiped out in cities. They will also get wiped out in Scotland . The Tories are screwed , Labour will suffer some damage but even in Leave seats the majority of Labour voters were Remainers .

    May threatening an election and the Tories actually voting for it is a fantasy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    May now faces a choice.

    Election, Customs Union, No Deal, Referendum, Revocation.

    Which one is least terrible for her, and the Tory Party, and can be blamed easiest on “Parliament”?

    To me, that’s a Referendum, but I am not May.

    These are not all mutually exclusive.

    For example, the most likely way IMO that a Referendum will arise is VIA a General Election.

    Extend for that. New Tory leader offering macho Brexit. Labour offer renegotiated wimpy Brexit and confirmatory Referendum. Labour win.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2019
    MikeL said:

    Mail, Independent and many commentators predicting early GE.

    But if there is an early GE, Con will not have time to choose new leader so it'll be May v Corbyn.

    Yet Corbyn is still 7.6 for next PM?

    My own view is that an early GE doesn't make sense as key decision re Brexit must be made by 12 April. Assuming we do extend and it's for a reasonable length of time then there's no need for an immediate GE. Con can elect their new leader and then next step is up to that new leader.

    If an early general election were called the EU would most willingly extend in the prospect of an end to BREXIT or BREXITlite.
  • Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    Corbyn and the idiotic ultra brexiteers are equally responsible
    May is 100% respomnsible
    That is utter nonsense.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    rpjs said:

    So I was wondering what couldn't actually be worse than the current mess in the UK. Here's my tentative list:

    1) A military coup
    2) The Queen suspending Parliament and reinstating Divine Right
    3) "I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords"
    4) Case Nightmare Green*

    * from Charles Stross's "Laundry" Lovecraftian horror novels, where in the latest installment the stars have come right and the PM is in fact the Black Pharaoh Nyarlathotep.

    Any more suggestions?

    Skynet reaching self-awareness and launching the nukes as the boffins try to pull the plug?
    A dallas style dream sequence where it turns out Thatcher is still in charge
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    Corbyn and the idiotic ultra brexiteers are equally responsible
    May is 100% respomnsible
    That is utter nonsense.
    I know. Come now, BJO. Don't you have a spell checker? :p
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I look forward to a General Election where both Labour and Conservatives will be lying through their teeth to claim that they have a coherent, united platform which all candidates have agreed to support. It shouldn't take long for unity to fall apart.

    Re Protests, has it turned into an 18th weekend of running battles with the police in major towns and cities? When it does non-Brexit will have led to chaos.

    Just seen Jon Snow making a fool of himself, perhaps he could quietly retire to Glastonbury,
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    This is the sort shit that causes problems. Dial it down.
    We all agree that it should be dialled down, and violence must be condemned. However, if people see that trying to achieve change through adherence to democratic processes does not work then they will seek other means. John McDonnell, amongst others has not hidden his enthusiasm for direct action.

    The public voted to Leave the EU in a referendum. 3 years later we are still in the EU, and there is no obvious sign we are leaving anytime soon.
    There is no justification for direct action or the menacing “other means”, none.
    +1
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    Really? He's one of those Goldsmiths? I thought that could only be the work of some acne-cream revolutionary from his mum's spare room.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited March 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Speaking of the Dunning–Kruger effect, Trump seems bomb-proof to reality, with a little help from his "friends" who seem to have fallen for it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2019
    OllyT said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    You don't think people won't look at the footage of Saturday's remain march and tonight's leave protest and draw their own conclusions? Obviously you can't judge all leavers by tonight's crowd but it's not doing much to dispel the stereotype although I am personally quite happy for Tommy Robinson to become the poster boy for leave!.
    A Leave supporter murdered Jo Cox, and a week or two later Leave still won
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    Corbyn and the idiotic ultra brexiteers are equally responsible
    May is 100% respomnsible
    Is that the Oz-Brit Abuse gambit?
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    Isn't it reasonable to judge people by the company they keep?
    People are being judged by company they don’t keep


    Didn't go tonite so I can't speak from experience, but the rushes don't look good.
    Less well educated people from poorer parts of the country are angrier and more violent, to use Akala’s explanation for gang trouble, and when they feel alienated and rejected, it can erupt.
    No need to tell me that, Sam. I was listening to some great vox pop from Rochester earlier today; it would have made you weep. Salt-of-the-earth types incandescent at being let down by politicians, and who shall blame them. They've been shafted all their lives, and they've been shafted again.

    What they don't get is that in the now-unlikely event of a full on Brexit, they will be first in the line to get shafted some more. It just won't help them. More likely it will make matters worse.

    What makes me incandescent is that Labour should be first in line defending and helping these people. Instead it vacillates under a questionable leadership, and gives too much succour to members and other supporters whose instincts are to sneer at the poorly educated who feel left behind by the changes in the world around them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    .
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    Isn't it reasonable to judge people by the company they keep?
    Hitler was a vegetarian. Just because he was we don’t tar all fascists with that defect.
    If you want to read some great blogs I suggest googling was Hitler a vegetarian? You’ll find a selection of interesting blogs where vegetarians try to disprove this. Most would say he followed a vegetarian diet towards the end of his life, but he did enjoy a wurst earlier in his life so this is proof to some that he couldn’t have been vegetarian.

    People only say Hitler was a vegetarian environmentalist to make him look bad
    It is not clear when he adopted it, since some accounts of his dietary habits prior to the Second World War indicate that he consumed meat as late as 1937. By 1938, Hitler's public image as a vegetarian was already being fostered, and from 1942, he self-identified as a vegetarian. Personal accounts from people who knew Hitler and were familiar with his diet indicate that he did not consume meat as part of his diet during this period, with several contemporaneous witnesses—such as Albert Speer (in his memoirs, Inside the Third Reich)—noting that Hitler used vivid and gruesome descriptions of animal suffering and slaughter at the dinner table to try to dissuade his colleagues from eating meat. An examination of Hitler's remains carried out by French scientists in 2017 found no traces of meat fibre in the tartar on Hitler's teeth.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler_and_vegetarianism

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    nico67 said:

    OMG no more imminent election talk from the media .

    More nonsense. Any election won’t happen until after Brexit . So the Tories who are more reliant on Leavers are going to go to the country after having failed to deliver Brexit . Exactly what will the manifesto say , Mays deal ! After the ERG have spent months convincing Leavers her deal is rubbish and making many Leavers no dealers will the manifesto say no deal .

    Are they looking to get completely wiped out in cities. They will also get wiped out in Scotland . The Tories are screwed , Labour will suffer some damage but even in Leave seats the majority of Labour voters were Remainers .

    May threatening an election and the Tories actually voting for it is a fantasy.

    Indeed, it is just the media whipping up the readership. I think you outline the contradictions well - As Vernon Bogdanor predicted several years ago Brexit is a Government destroyer! They are not going to go for an early election by choice.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    Attacking the messenger rather the message is always a sign of intellectual bankruptcy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,186
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    Interesting. I sort of see Raab/Leadsom/Johnson/Gove fishing in one part of the pond with Hunt/Javid/Hancock in the other. The question is the extent to which past loyalties (Javid and Hancock were both backed by GO as I recall) and past issues (Gove/Johnson and of course Leadsom's comment last time round) will matter.
    Indeed, which is why Raab is a strong dark horse.

    What is certain though is most Tory members want a shift to the right once May goes and someone committed to Leave, also as tonight's rally shows if another Remainer succeeds May I am afraid we will see a surge for a Tommy Robinson dominated UKIP let alone Farage's Brexit Party, especially amongst C2s who voted Tory in 2017 expecting them to deliver a hard Brexit
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    “Corbyn conspires with hard Brexiteers” is a bit of a stretch.
    This is the sort shit that causes problems. Dial it down.
    We all agree that it should be dialled down, and violence must be condemned. However, if people see that trying to achieve change through adherence to democratic processes does not work then they will seek other means. John McDonnell, amongst others has not hidden his enthusiasm for direct action.

    The public voted to Leave the EU in a referendum. 3 years later we are still in the EU, and there is no obvious sign we are leaving anytime soon.
    There is no justification for direct action or the menacing “other means”, none.
    +1
    Direct action includes things like the Suffragette's movement, the more peaceful flower-power demonstrations of the mid-late 60s, sit-ins, and anti-frackers' night-time occupations of drilling sites. I personally would at various times have supported some or all of these.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Theresa May faces a stark but simple choice this weekend. Should she risk shattering her Conservative party by delaying and watering down Brexit; or would she rather face the electorate and let them shatter the party for her. Few could be surprised if she wants to spend a little longer than usual in church on Sunday.

    Almost any path the prime minister now takes is likely to lead to a large number of cabinet resignations. In the words of one cabinet member: “All choices are grim.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/cb6a7b4c-5233-11e9-9c76-bf4a0ce37d49?shareType=nongift
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    As such a keen fan of Putin, you should well know that nasty politicians throughout history have used the equivalent of 'tatooed yobs' to further their interests. Therefore it's perfectly natural to be concerned when 'tatooed yobs' get involved with politics.
    And we are being obliquely threatened with exactly these people in the portentous warnings from the Brexit mean's Brexit brigade about how we will rue the day if the democratic will of 17 million voters is ignored.
    A lot of 'tattoed yobs' wear red - and are much more active physically politically in shutting down debate, Think of them as the dogs in Animal Farm.
  • kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    She's really not very bright, is she?

    I have respect for MPs in general and I do not like the phrase 'thick as pig shit'.

    However, Priti Patel ...
    I was at university with her, and I can confirm that she is dim.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    edited March 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    I look forward to a General Election where both Labour and Conservatives will be lying through their teeth to claim that they have a coherent, united platform which all candidates have agreed to support. It shouldn't take long for unity to fall apart.

    Has any UK political party ever split *during* a General election campaign? Surely that'd be a real possibility here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,186
    nico67 said:

    OMG no more imminent election talk from the media .

    More nonsense. Any election won’t happen until after Brexit . So the Tories who are more reliant on Leavers are going to go to the country after having failed to deliver Brexit . Exactly what will the manifesto say , Mays deal ! After the ERG have spent months convincing Leavers her deal is rubbish and making many Leavers no dealers will the manifesto say no deal .

    Are they looking to get completely wiped out in cities. They will also get wiped out in Scotland . The Tories are screwed , Labour will suffer some damage but even in Leave seats the majority of Labour voters were Remainers .

    May threatening an election and the Tories actually voting for it is a fantasy.

    I see an election under May as a repeat of Feb 1974, the Tories likely come close, maybe even winning most votes or seats (Heath won the popular vote then) but it is Labour that form the government with the SNP. On an election where May seeks a mandate for her Deal as Heath did to tame the unions the voters may blow a raspberry
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    As such a keen fan of Putin, you should well know that nasty politicians throughout history have used the equivalent of 'tatooed yobs' to further their interests. Therefore it's perfectly natural to be concerned when 'tatooed yobs' get involved with politics.
    And we are being obliquely threatened with exactly these people in the portentous warnings from the Brexit mean's Brexit brigade about how we will rue the day if the democratic will of 17 million voters is ignored.
    A lot of 'tattoed yobs' wear red - and are much more active physically politically in shutting down debate, Think of them as the dogs in Animal Farm.
    What?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    dr_spyn said:

    I look forward to a General Election where both Labour and Conservatives will be lying through their teeth to claim that they have a coherent, united platform which all candidates have agreed to support. It shouldn't take long for unity to fall apart.

    Has any political party ever split *during* an election campaign? Surely that'd be a real possibility.
    Labour had some serious failings out during the 1983 campaign, but then of course they had split already.

    On topic I'd say no deal exit is a lot longer odds than 2/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,186

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    If that is true, the Tory party is heading for self-destruction.
    No, just getting back in touch with its core vote
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    That's because they are voting to Remain!

    Farage has been attacked on more than one occasion, and I doubt it was by Leavers
    The Remain crowd of a million had zero police presence. The police had done the risk assessment and knew there was no risk. The Farage Sunderland march of 150(?) had six police in yellow jackets.
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    Isn't it reasonable to judge people by the company they keep?
    People are being judged by company they don’t keep


    Didn't go tonite so I can't speak from experience, but the rushes don't look good.
    Less well educated people from poorer parts of the country are angrier and more violent, to use Akala’s explanation for gang trouble, and when they feel alienated and rejected, it can erupt.
    No need to tell me that, Sam. I was listening to some great vox pop from Rochester earlier today; it would have made you weep. Salt-of-the-earth types incandescent at being let down by politicians, and who shall blame them. They've been shafted all their lives, and they've been shafted again.

    What they don't get is that in the now-unlikely event of a full on Brexit, they will be first in the line to get shafted some more. It just won't help them. More likely it will make matters worse.

    What makes me incandescent is that Labour should be first in line defending and helping these people. Instead it vacillates under a questionable leadership, and gives too much succour to members and other supporters whose instincts are to sneer at the poorly educated who feel left behind by the changes in the world around them.
    ...and the one time they get their voices heard, and win, the politicians conspire to ignore them. Truly incredible.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    If that is true, the Tory party is heading for self-destruction.
    No, just getting back in touch with its core vote
    It may come to same thing, historically. The national-populist base of the core vote is too small to sustain the full size of tory party as it's currently constituted, and wants to be. A nationalist/free-market split may be more realistic, especially if hard Brexit is gone through with, and the incompatible demands of the two groups are gradually understood.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,186

    HYUFD said:

    So the WA fails again but by a narrower margin, seems some Labour MPs chickened out of backing it once they saw it would lose. So the Commons looks like voting for permanent Customs Union on Monday, then all depends on whether it votes to contest the EU Parliament elections too

    HYUFD said:

    So the WA fails again but by a narrower margin, seems some Labour MPs chickened out of backing it once they saw it would lose. So the Commons looks like voting for permanent Customs Union on Monday, then all depends on whether it votes to contest the EU Parliament elections too

    Wonder how many Tory MPs will vote for that and against their own manifesto. That will destroy any credibility they have - as individuals - or as a party if it succeeds.
    If a WA plus Customs Union passes it will be on Labour, LD, SNP and Tory Remainer rebels votes, most Tories will vote against, hence May is in an impossible position. WA plus CU is today's Corn Laws and she could end up like Peel, repealing the Corn Laws but losing most of his party at the same time
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
    People elected that parliament after May called an election after saying the other parties were trying to stop Brexit. You can’t say it’s undemocratic.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    This isn't fair. Leavers may well have made insufficient effort, but non-Leavers are equally guilty. You, yourself, are one of the most intransigent remainers. How much effort did you make?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Scott_P said:
    So some Cabinet Ministers want to to vote against the manifesto upon which they were elected. It farcical. They just want to be paid for doing what Brussels tells them.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Theresa May now confronts Brexit choices she hoped never to face
    Robert Shrimsley
    "This makes Monday perhaps the most important day so far in settling Britain’s future. MPs will get their second day of indicative votes and a chance to choose a new path. The only two options which appear close to commanding majority support are a permanent customs union and a second referendum."

    Monday's a special day then - especially before noon.
    :smile:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    I can't understand why this is such a big issue given any commitment to a/the customs union in the PD is little more than an aspiration and certainly isn't set in stone if there's a new Con leader and a general election with a Con majority government at the end of it?

    What am I missing?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
    Now why is it that Leavers have wholly failed to convince their erstwhile opponents that their mad hobbyhorse is a worthwhile pursuit? It turns out that race-baiting in the referendum campaign and then demonising opponents nonstop afterwards is a poor way to build a consensus.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    There does seem to be a path ahead:

    Monday: CU emerges as the favourite option from IV2. There's a question about whether PV can be linked to it; I suspect not, as Labour support is just too lukewarm

    Wednesday: Gvt is moving towards having its WA "run off" against whatever emerges from IV2. So there's a (WA+)CU v WA vote. Unless the ERG refuse to play, they should be on May's side. Nevertheless CU probably scrapes through. May has to go.

    Can the WA and PD be amended to incorporate a CU in time for agreement by both houses before 12 April? Probably not. So the next move is a long extension needing to be agreed w/c 8 April, and at the EU summit on the 10th - probably of nine months. Maybe two years.

    Gives time for a new Tory leader who needs to decide whether to run with CU or go to the country to get a different mandate. I still lean against a 2019 GE. So new leader runs with CU

    Tories do badly in the locals and both Tory and Labour do badly in the Euros. Confirms no GE.

    Either the new leader runs CU through to a Jan 2020 CU Brexit or runs into trouble with the proposal later this year and is forced to add a PV to it. In that case, a referendum in the autumn; Remain wins.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    Scott_P said:
    So some Cabinet Ministers want to to vote against the manifesto upon which they were elected. It farcical. They just want to be paid for doing what Brussels tells them.
    Its either CU or No Deal or GE.

    Decision time.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
    People elected that parliament after May called an election after saying the other parties were trying to stop Brexit. You can’t say it’s undemocratic.
    It's undemocratic because neither the Tories nor Labour said anything in their 2017 manifestos about preventing us leaving the EU. However some Tories and the majority of Labour MPs are doing so.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    FF43 said:

    isam said:
    Son of one of Britain's most prominent capitalists, Etonian, married the heiress to the Rothschild banking dynasty, financier in his own right - complains about the establishment.

    Attacking the messenger rather the message is always a sign of intellectual bankruptcy
    No worries. I attack the message.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2019
    Have to admit the Leave protesters have a point here

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1111745526528163840
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
    The public elected this Parliament AFTER the referendum. It’s mandate is fresher than the referendum. I realise it is unfashionable but I tend to the view that MPs generally want to take a course of action that causes least harm to their constituents. Except the DUP and the ERG of course.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Omnium said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    This isn't fair. Leavers may well have made insufficient effort, but non-Leavers are equally guilty. You, yourself, are one of the most intransigent remainers. How much effort did you make?
    In what way am I intransigent? I would have voted for the deal if I had a choice. I might still get the opportunity.

    I haven’t concealed my disgust for the antics of Leavers, but those have been pretty contemptible, as I’m sure you’ll accept. And why should Remainers make any effort to forge a consensus for a policy they think is malign and foolish?
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    You've got no interest in making Brexit work. Many people in this country now have no interest in making the EU work. How the flying feckity doodah do we reconcile that?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    I have a hunch that May will go for no deal, rather than take on her right wing. She might try another MV first, but will prefer no deal over compromise.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Very pleased there will be some rousing pieces in the Telegraph tomorrow. That’s exactly what we need to sort this mess out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,500

    Have to admit the Leave protesters have a point here

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1111745526528163840

    🤗
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from my local party Association AGM, a strong feeling a 'true Brexiteer' was now needed as the next Tory leader. On a straw poll Raab and Leadsom came a surprising joint top, Boris was second and Hunt third

    If that is true, the Tory party is heading for self-destruction.
    No, just getting back in touch with its core vote
    And out of touch with the majority.

    Delicious, isn’t it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    One hour until LINO (Leave In Name Only) Everyone ready? :D

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the WA fails again but by a narrower margin, seems some Labour MPs chickened out of backing it once they saw it would lose. So the Commons looks like voting for permanent Customs Union on Monday, then all depends on whether it votes to contest the EU Parliament elections too

    HYUFD said:

    So the WA fails again but by a narrower margin, seems some Labour MPs chickened out of backing it once they saw it would lose. So the Commons looks like voting for permanent Customs Union on Monday, then all depends on whether it votes to contest the EU Parliament elections too

    Wonder how many Tory MPs will vote for that and against their own manifesto. That will destroy any credibility they have - as individuals - or as a party if it succeeds.
    If a WA plus Customs Union passes it will be on Labour, LD, SNP and Tory Remainer rebels votes, most Tories will vote against, hence May is in an impossible position. WA plus CU is today's Corn Laws and she could end up like Peel, repealing the Corn Laws but losing most of his party at the same time
    Possibly, but those Cabinet Remainers can’t be allowed to stay in Cabinet if they vote against their own referendum. Better a split in the party than that. Voting to alleviate famine in Ireland is rather more noble than voting out of self gratification.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Have to admit the Leave protesters have a point here

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1111745526528163840

    C**t's have more depth and warmth than Campbell.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yes. No deal. In 14 days. With fuck all prep. And maximum disruption. The opposite of what the Confederation of British Industry and British Chambers of Commerce want.

    That's how the Tories win a majority...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Scott_P said:
    So some Cabinet Ministers want to to vote against the manifesto upon which they were elected. It farcical. They just want to be paid for doing what Brussels tells them.
    Its either CU or No Deal or GE.

    Decision time.
    I'm of the view that May will go for a general election. It buys time from the EU and provides the opportunity to clear the decks. She might end up walking the plank or sinking the Corbyn fleet but at least it will be the PM taking back an element of control from the storm.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    I suspect CU will come out of the elimination and TM needs to put it back to the house for confirmation. After that leave with WDA and customs union on the 22nd May to avoid EU elections and enter transition.

    Then by Summer new PM and a GE shortly after.

    I too have this as the most likely scenario. And if it goes this way - a GE post Brexit in, say, October - I think the Tories will win it.

    My next most likely scenario is that the GE is pre Brexit and called as a last resort to break the current impasse. In this case, Labour offer renegotiation and confirmatory REF2 and they win. The REF takes place in 2020 and we Remain.

    There are then various other unlikely scenarios that do not involve a GE. The most likely of these unlikely scenarios is that a Unity Coalition is formed and somehow holds together for long enough to pilot through a renegotiated BINO/REF/REMAIN solution.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
    The public elected this Parliament AFTER the referendum. It’s mandate is fresher than the referendum. I realise it is unfashionable but I tend to the view that MPs generally want to take a course of action that causes least harm to their constituents. Except the DUP and the ERG of course.
    This Parliament has no mandate to prevent us leaving the EU. Neither Labour nor the Tories said they would do so in their 2017 GE manifestos.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    You've got no interest in making Brexit work. Many people in this country now have no interest in making the EU work. How the flying feckity doodah do we reconcile that?
    Yes it’s a complete disaster. I’ve been saying that for nearly three years. Glad you’re catching on.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Jonathan said:

    I have a hunch that May will go for no deal, rather than take on her right wing. She might try another MV first, but will prefer no deal over compromise.

    No May will ask for an extension and resign afterwards rather than go for no deal . No deal definitely ends her government . She’ll rather let another leader try and go for that .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    There does seem to be a path ahead:

    Monday: CU emerges as the favourite option from IV2. There's a question about whether PV can be linked to it; I suspect not, as Labour support is just too lukewarm

    Wednesday: Gvt is moving towards having its WA "run off" against whatever emerges from IV2. So there's a (WA+)CU v WA vote. Unless the ERG refuse to play, they should be on May's side. Nevertheless CU probably scrapes through. May has to go.

    Can the WA and PD be amended to incorporate a CU in time for agreement by both houses before 12 April? Probably not. So the next move is a long extension needing to be agreed w/c 8 April, and at the EU summit on the 10th - probably of nine months. Maybe two years.

    Gives time for a new Tory leader who needs to decide whether to run with CU or go to the country to get a different mandate. I still lean against a 2019 GE. So new leader runs with CU

    Tories do badly in the locals and both Tory and Labour do badly in the Euros. Confirms no GE.

    Either the new leader runs CU through to a Jan 2020 CU Brexit or runs into trouble with the proposal later this year and is forced to add a PV to it. In that case, a referendum in the autumn; Remain wins.

    I doubt they'd want a long extension as it gives too much time for 'events' to happen and minds to change.

    Which is also why I think they'd want a GE sooner rather than later.

    And sooner rather than later is also suggested by where we are in the economic cycle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:
    So some Cabinet Ministers want to to vote against the manifesto upon which they were elected. It farcical. They just want to be paid for doing what Brussels tells them.
    Its either CU or No Deal or GE.

    Decision time.
    CU pledge -> Exit -> New Leader -> No CU -> General Election
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Scott_P said:
    So some Cabinet Ministers want to to vote against the manifesto upon which they were elected. It farcical. They just want to be paid for doing what Brussels tells them.
    Its either CU or No Deal or GE.

    Decision time.
    No deal isn’t desirable but allows us to get on with the rest of our lives. Don’t see how the Tory Party can fight a GE without splitting at the moment. Both more desirable that staying in a customs union.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649


    People are being judged by company they don’t keep


    Didn't go tonite so I can't speak from experience, but the rushes don't look good.
    Less well educated people from poorer parts of the country are angrier and more violent, to use Akala’s explanation for gang trouble, and when they feel alienated and rejected, it can erupt.
    No need to tell me that, Sam. I was listening to some great vox pop from Rochester earlier today; it would have made you weep. Salt-of-the-earth types incandescent at being let down by politicians, and who shall blame them. They've been shafted all their lives, and they've been shafted again.

    What they don't get is that in the now-unlikely event of a full on Brexit, they will be first in the line to get shafted some more. It just won't help them. More likely it will make matters worse.

    What makes me incandescent is that Labour should be first in line defending and helping these people. Instead it vacillates under a questionable leadership, and gives too much succour to members and other supporters whose instincts are to sneer at the poorly educated who feel left behind by the changes in the world around them.
    ...and the one time they get their voices heard, and win, the politicians conspire to ignore them. Truly incredible.
    Yeah, but get real, Sam. You know as well as me that the opinions of the 17.4m were hugely diverse, many of them having bugger all to do with Brexit.

    There was no plan, no leadership and no hope of implementing it. They were offered a bum choice - the undesirable versus the undeliverable.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    You've got no interest in making Brexit work. Many people in this country now have no interest in making the EU work. How the flying feckity doodah do we reconcile that?
    Yes it’s a complete disaster. I’ve been saying that for nearly three years. Glad you’re catching on.
    I'm really grateful that you've helped me see the light xx
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Omnium said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    This isn't fair. Leavers may well have made insufficient effort, but non-Leavers are equally guilty. You, yourself, are one of the most intransigent remainers. How much effort did you make?
    In what way am I intransigent? I would have voted for the deal if I had a choice. I might still get the opportunity.

    I haven’t concealed my disgust for the antics of Leavers, but those have been pretty contemptible, as I’m sure you’ll accept. And why should Remainers make any effort to forge a consensus for a policy they think is malign and foolish?
    Sorry - perhaps I haven't kept up with developments. You were once-upon-a-time the most intransigent of remainers - at least based on reading of your views.

    Remainers need to recognise the decision. You'd have to confess that all on the remain side actively see that as a thing, and very rarely wish to acknowledge any validity in the decision.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Barnesian said:

    Good summing up of some of the atmosphere :

    http://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1111686933825179649

    She wouldn't have got that from the Remain crowd. No police necessary. That's the difference.
    .
    I’ll sell a million and buy at zero
    The numbers aren't the point. The difference is the behaviour. Whose side do you want to be on. The tattooed yobs (plus Trump and Putin)?
    Its genuinely mystifying to me how a vaguely intelligent person can't see how stupifyingly cretinous it is to base a political decision on whether 'the tatooed yobs' belong to the other side. What sort of imbeciles have we bred?
    Isn't it reasonable to judge people by the company they keep?
    Hitler was a vegetarian. Just because he was we don’t tar all fascists with that defect.
    If you want to read some great blogs I suggest googling was Hitler a vegetarian? You’ll find a selection of interesting blogs where vegetarians try to disprove this. Most would say he followed a vegetarian diet towards the end of his life, but he did enjoy a wurst earlier in his life so this is proof to some that he couldn’t have been vegetarian.

    People only say Hitler was a vegetarian environmentalist to make him look bad
    It is not clear when he adopted it, since some accounts of his dietary habits prior to the Second World War indicate that he consumed meat as late as 1937. By 1938, Hitler's public image as a vegetarian was already being fostered, and from 1942, he self-identified as a vegetarian. Personal accounts from people who knew Hitler and were familiar with his diet indicate that he did not consume meat as part of his diet during this period, with several contemporaneous witnesses—such as Albert Speer (in his memoirs, Inside the Third Reich)—noting that Hitler used vivid and gruesome descriptions of animal suffering and slaughter at the dinner table to try to dissuade his colleagues from eating meat. An examination of Hitler's remains carried out by French scientists in 2017 found no traces of meat fibre in the tartar on Hitler's teeth.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler_and_vegetarianism

    I always assume that vegetarians have Nazi sympathies. (Not you, Sunil, of course.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    That moment when Leave went full on fascist.

    https://twitter.com/albyearley/status/1111701074094817280?s=21

    This is why I didn't go

    A friend asked me
    This is the most unBritish thing I have seen.
    Indeed. I wouldn't dream of associating myself with it.
    Leavers need to excise this actively from their movement and the sentiments that drive it. This is not part of what motivates most Leavers.
    Tommy Robinson has nothing to do with my movement.

    I find him abhorrent.
    I know you do. They do not represent you. However...

    Some of the language prominent Leavers have used like “traitor” and “saboteur” have not helped one bit. Instead there should have more of an effort to remove them and attract normal folk that may simply disagree with Leave.
    Never mind “more of an effort”, “an effort” would have been a start. Leavers have constantly pandered to the extremes. Now they wonder why things are getting steadily worse.
    Things are getting steadily worse because the public voted to leave the EU and a remainer Parliament is doing everything it can to prevent us leaving the EU.
    People elected that parliament after May called an election after saying the other parties were trying to stop Brexit. You can’t say it’s undemocratic.
    You can when 86% of votes were cast for parties pledged to implement Brexit....
This discussion has been closed.