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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where we are now summed up in two betting Tweets

?? Latest Brexit Odds ??1/3 UK holds European Elections in May8/11 2019 General Election2/1 2019 Referendum2/1 UK leaves with NO DEAL on April 12th

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,716
    edited March 2019
    First. Unlike May's deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    MV4 is the one. Or maybe MV5. Perhaps MV6.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    edited March 2019
    Second..... no Third! But possibly well in front of some Conservative candidates at the forthcoming GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    MV4 is the one. Or maybe MV5. Perhaps MV6.

    We need official MV3 first.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.

    Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MV4 is the one. Or maybe MV5. Perhaps MV6.

    We need official MV3 first.
    Was today's events "the Never Say Never Again" of Meaningful Votes. Not official and a remake of MV2.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    edited March 2019
    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111653278847242242
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    kle4 said:

    Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.

    Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.

    We could have 4 Prime Ministers this year.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    May 23rd would be interesting and potentially complicated as it would be concurrent with European Parliamentary elections were we to extend and hold them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    Maybe May should try to grab a friendly deputy speaker, and however many members constitute a quorum and hold a Robber’s Parliament across the road before any other members can come by and vote down her deal again. Worked for the second council of ephesus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111653278847242242

    "It's going in the right direction" bless!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.

    Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.

    We could have 4 Prime Ministers this year.
    One would be nice.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    kle4 said:

    Maybe May should try to grab a friendly deputy speaker, and however many members constitute a quorum and hold a Robber’s Parliament across the road before any other members can come by and vote down her deal again. Worked for the second council of ephesus.

    Bercow being abducted for a couple of days would be very helpful next week.

    He has screwed with this for long enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111653278847242242


    Which answers the question DavidL had about what the point of today was - to show momentum and support for this option above the indicative vote options.

    Not sure that will work, but in any case won’t the government need to come off the fence and not abstain on Monday? And can they be sure how all their Cabinet members will vote?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    What do we know about the next stage of the Letwin Process?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111653278847242242

    I don't think people have registered yet how limited the choices are. The Letwin process is almost an irrelevance, unless it produces a majority for a second referendum to justify a long extension.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Benpointer said:

    What do we know about the next stage of the Letwin Process?

    It will be a fuck up?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MV4 is the one. Or maybe MV5. Perhaps MV6.

    We need official MV3 first.
    "Meaningful Vote No. 3: There is no Meaningful Vote No.3"
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    oxfordsimon said:

    kle4 said:

    Maybe May should try to grab a friendly deputy speaker, and however many members constitute a quorum and hold a Robber’s Parliament across the road before any other members can come by and vote down her deal again. Worked for the second council of ephesus.

    Bercow being abducted for a couple of days would be very helpful next week.

    He has screwed with this for long enough.
    Surely you mean "years". "Days" seems hardly adequate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?
    Makes a lot of sense.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Popcorn, anyone?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Just messaged a friend who is an actual anarchist. "Your lot must be feeling pretty smug right now."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?
    Wouldn't that be fun.

    Might also postpone the locals to the same date for fun.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited March 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    MarqueeMark said:

    Benpointer said:

    What do we know about the next stage of the Letwin Process?

    It will be a fuck up?
    Surely that's the future of any option
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Popcorn, anyone?
    I'm diabetic, but I would do a jig if either of them lost their seats, I'd class both of them as Con Gains.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Like the new logo
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?
    Wouldn't that be fun.

    Might also postpone the locals to the same date for fun.
    And we could sort out the best crisp while we are at it.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Can't help thinking there will have been a majority in the HoC by this time next week for WA or WA+x

    And we can all breathe easily again....

    :-)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    Or remind them what a mess the Tories have made.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    A fortnight next Tuesday for the 23rd, and a week later for the 30th.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    edited March 2019
    How long before one of the holdout Conservative MP's says that he didn't realise he was voting to stop Brexit?

    I think that Steve Baker and Mark Francois have to be prevented from running again as Conservative candidates. In all likelihood, the Continuity Remainers' associations will do for them, without CCHQ intervention.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    On the European Parliament elections, can anyone advise; is any Parliamentary vote required to give the green light for UK elections? I just cannot believe there will be a majority for it.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Benpointer said:

    Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.

    Can the HoC and EU do a deal? I believe the EU can only talk to the govt. So it looks like revoke or No Deal
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    Sean_F said:

    How long before one of the holdout Conservative MP's says that he didn't realise he was voting to stop Brexit?

    I think that Steve Baker and Mark Francois have to be prevented from running again as Conservative candidates. In all likelihood, the Continuity Remainers' associations will do for them, without CCHQ intervention.

    2044.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    Does anyone see any chance of Betfair paying out on "No" for MV3? The rubric says "market voided if vote does not take place", but not until yesterday did they change the wording to specify that this must include the political declaration. It was originally explicit that MV3 was defined as a third vote *on the Withdrawal Agreement*. Which happened today.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,701
    ReggieCide said:

    Benpointer said:

    Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.

    Can the HoC and EU do a deal? I believe the EU can only talk to the govt. So it looks like revoke or No Deal
    Or delay.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261
    RH1992 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    May 23rd would be interesting and potentially complicated as it would be concurrent with European Parliamentary elections were we to extend and hold them.
    It would presumably greatly decrease the cost of holding an EU election
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Benpointer said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Don’t see how we avoid a GE this year still, but in fairness that is a lesser consideration than what will happen in the next 2 weeks. Pinning hopes on Customs Union now I guess.

    Although MV2.5 has received more votes than anything else so far. It is the most popular, technically. But not the least unpopular.

    We could have 4 Prime Ministers this year.
    One would be nice.
    Harsh but oh so fucking fair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    For the majority of Leave voters, completing a ballot in a European election will be a novel experience. Many will be surprised to discover that such a thing exists.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    May's masterplan uncovered!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.
    I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.

    Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Benpointer said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Benpointer said:

    Only 2/1 against No Deal on 12th April ?! Must be a lot less likely than that since both the EU and the HoC don't want it.

    Can the HoC and EU do a deal? I believe the EU can only talk to the govt. So it looks like revoke or No Deal
    Or delay.
    delay = revoke
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?
    That would be fun.

    LibDdems, Labour, TIGs, Greens, Plaid, SNP all squabbling for the Remain vote, Tories and assorted UKIP incarnations squabbling for the Leave vote.

    I've thought for a while that an election was needed. But not under May. No way can she be put to the voters again. But then, neither can a stand in. But then, neither is there going to be another Tory coronation.

    A Tory version of Battle Royal is required. All the contestants for Tory leader on Gruinard Island, with a selection of axes, crossbows, throwing knives, flamethrowers and broadswords. Last Man Standing gets to implement Brexit. Get a result within 24 hours.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Like the new logo
    A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    FPT Mr. B, cheers for posting that.

    Bit busy over the weekend so I might be putting up the pre-qualifying tosh this evening rather than tomorrow.

    Mr. F, quite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Like the new logo
    A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.
    Could also serve as the template for future flags of the component states of the union - your old national flag within the EU flag.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.
    I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.

    Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
    The thought of a Corbyn government horrifies me, but the idea of either of those two tossers losing their seats would be like Ed Balls losing his on steroids
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    All across the land the hosts of Mordor raged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT Mr. B, cheers for posting that.

    Bit busy over the weekend so I might be putting up the pre-qualifying tosh this evening rather than tomorrow.

    Mr. F, quite.

    Either Mercedes have some pace in hand, or they have gone into damage limitation mode - they didn't do a second qualifying sim, unlike Ferrari.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Like the new logo
    A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.
    ....and the largest anti-EU movement.

    I love the idea of all the ProEU Movement agitating for an institution headed by Juncker, the sort of businessman they would ordinarily be, er, marching to have removed from office - for being an affront to all that was decent in the world they want to live in. But hey, IOKIYAE.


    (It's OK If You're A Eurocrat)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    OldKingCole said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    Or remind them what a mess the Tories have made.
    It might just remind some more open minded Leavers that voting leave was not in the country's best interest, and the only people it has served well was the country's enemies and detractors
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.
    I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.

    Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
    The thought of a Corbyn government horrifies me, but the idea of either of those two tossers losing their seats would be like Ed Balls losing his on steroids
    The constituency result I liked the most was Mark Reckless losing in 2015, but this might top that.

    Ditto Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and Andrew Bridgen losing, but I cannot see that happening.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    edited March 2019
    Would be massive upheaval to delay the local elections now. The formal campaign period has begun so election expenses have been triggered, all polling stations and their staff are booked, nominations have been accepted (still open), polling cards with official notices of the election are all out.

    Chaos and primary legislation needed to change that this stage.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    The Conservatives called the 2017 election as the party of Brexit, telling people Labour wanted to stop it, thinking it was a 50% strategy. It turned out to be a 40% strategy that also boosted the opposition up to the same level.

    Now it's become a 30-35% strategy, and they seem determined to make the same mistake again.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.
    I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.

    Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
    I still think they'd be polling 45-50%. That might be enough to lose, but I think probably not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. B, hard to judge relative race pace between those two teams because Leclerc was ordered to back off and Vettel had gremlins in Oz, but right now I think Mercedes has the biggest qualifying boost (hence relatively weakest in the race), Ferrari are in the middle, and Red Bull are similar to Ferrari but a bit better (relative to qualifying) in the race.

    If we end up with Ferrari-Mercedes-Red Bull in the race, I wonder if the Silver Arrows might end up going backwards.

    Anyway, I'll check the odds sometime after 5pm.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited March 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    23rd; Coinciding with the Euros?
    Wouldn't that be fun.

    Might also postpone the locals to the same date for fun.
    Too late for locals, nominations in, the clock has already been started.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    tpfkar said:

    Would be massive upheaval to delay the local elections now. The formal campaign period has begun so election expenses have been triggered, all polling stations and their staff are booked, nominations have been accepted (still open), polling cards with official notices of the election are all out.

    Chaos and primary legislation needed to change that this stage.

    Chaos doesn't seem a problem for the present government.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/1111653632099995648
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    There are also people who really do not like Corbyn who now no longer care if he wins, like me. The Tories won’t get those votes. In my case it matters not since it is a safe seat but others...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    The Conservatives called the 2017 election as the party of Brexit, telling people Labour wanted to stop it, thinking it was a 50% strategy. It turned out to be a 40% strategy that also boosted the opposition up to the same level.

    Now it's become a 30-35% strategy, and they seem determined to make the same mistake again.
    It would depend how well parties to the right of the Conservatives polled.

    Right now, I think we'd be looking at another hung Parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/1111653632099995648

    So the planes won't fly?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    I think both would hold their seats. Both were around 50% Leave, and the Conservatives did well in both seats in local elections.
    I think a mixture of Brexit and Universal Credit puts IDS at risk.

    Boris has managed to annoy both Leavers and Remainers today.
    I still think they'd be polling 45-50%. That might be enough to lose, but I think probably not.
    I think it might come down to which minor parties don't stand.

    You can see an angry UKIP/Brexit Party candidates screaming betrayal taking votes from IDS and Boris Johnson.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.

    Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I reckon IDS and Boris would lose their seats in a snap election.

    Like the new logo
    A reflection that the UK is now the home of what is probably the largest Pro EU movement in Europe.
    ....and the largest anti-EU movement.

    I love the idea of all the ProEU Movement agitating for an institution headed by Juncker, the sort of businessman they would ordinarily be, er, marching to have removed from office - for being an affront to all that was decent in the world they want to live in. But hey, IOKIYAE.


    (It's OK If You're A Eurocrat)
    And what is your opinion of Aaron Banks? Or the foreign advocates of Brexit, Vladimir Putin? Donald Trump? Personally I would prefer us to be aligned with the likes of Donald Tusk than any of these tossers
  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.

    They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.

    They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.

    However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.

    Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    OldKingCole said:

    A GE in late May might, just might turn into a referendum. I can well imagine that in some place at least Remain, or Leave, parties might agree to put up a single candidate, a bit like Martin Bell vs Neil Hamilton.

    That would frankly be a disgrace...it's not all about brexit... unless we then had a 'proper' GE later in year to re-set things.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2019
    That list of Tory rebels is now 7 or 8 remainers, a dozen hard liners, and not many others.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1111653278847242242

    By 'run-off' do they mean an either/or vote? Otherwise with 2 yes/no votes we could just end up with two more No votes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    AlastairMeeks said:

    All across the land the hosts of Mordor raged.


    Against the dying of the light.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    The Guardian is suggesting that 'there could be a run-off next week between MV3 and whatever the Letwin process produces'
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
    I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    SeanT said:

    Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.

    Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.

    What a pity all that money can’t buy you a backbone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    matt said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
    I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
    Sadly!
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.

    If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch

    Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.

    2.1. No deal. Cash in
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    kfowkes said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    I can see Labour winning up to 35-38% even with the TIG included.

    They will take a bit of a hit in constituencies like Hove, Hampstead, Hornsey etc but the majorities they built up there are safe enough to begin with.

    They may also take a further hit in the europhile seats in Edinburgh and Glasgow from the SNP.

    However I can't see TIG doing Labour any damage whatsoever in northern marginals like High Peak, Colne Valley, Warrington S,,Keigley, Bury N et al where bread and butter issues were key and will be again at the next election.

    Angela Smith's constituents were also completely scathing about her in Penistone in a recent guardian article.

    The thing I think is going to be different from the last election is that people will believe there is a real chance Corbyn could be PM, whereas last time only his most naïve of supporters thought so. Voting Labour last time was somewhat a free hit against the idea of the much believed landslide of TMay.The reality of the most left wing government ever in the UK may be sobering for some.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.

    Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.

    What a pity all that money can’t buy you a backbone.
    Though at least he's capable of reasoning as well as emoting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    The EU hitting out hard against the failure today and ramping up no deal.

    However, Varadkar seems to be in full panic mode and so he should be
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    dots said:

    Can we read anything significant in fact it was brought this week despite destined to fail? Yes we can, look at the groups earlier saying “looking to bring it back this week” and those saying “only back if can win” and you can see which group is now controlling government. Significant because if you get any promises from the other group they are worthless.

    If you don’t believe me, just see what happens next. I expect a “managed no deal” putsch

    Brexiteers in and out of cabinet, in the party and their supporters in other parties and the media will go for managed no deal.

    2.1. No deal. Cash in

    Managed No Deal is an oxymoron.

    Plus the EU have said the mini/sectoral deals are off the table.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    That list of Tory rebels is now 7 or 8 remainers, a dozen hard liners, and not many others.

    Surely all of those are hardliners!?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Nigelb said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.

    Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.

    What a pity all that money can’t buy you a backbone.
    Though at least he's capable of reasoning as well as emoting.
    Well he is applying the maxim of John Maynard Keynes that I mentioned earlier, and has gone up in my estimation because of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    That list of Tory rebels is now 7 or 8 remainers, a dozen hard liners, and not many others.

    3-line whip them into extinction.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The EU hitting out hard against the failure today and ramping up no deal.

    However, Varadkar seems to be in full panic mode and so he should be

    Well, both positions can be understood.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    SeanT said:

    Well, here is one Brexiteering sinner who abjectly repents, in so many ways. William Glenn was right and I was wrong. Brexit is undeliverable in any meaningful way that doesn’t severely damage the country.

    Revote. Or revoke. We have been defeated.

    You going all John of Gaunt on us ?

    That England that was wont to conquer others
    Hath made a shameful conquest of itself...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    OldKingCole said:

    matt said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Benpointer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    "The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote..." for the party that's been in government for that entire period.

    Yeah right.
    I think it's pointless trying to predict how public opinion will move. All we know is that the government is shambolic, and Labour is despised.
    The difference being Labour will likely sweep the remain vote again, for the same reasons as last time.
    Labour will gain the bulk of it, but there are also a lot of people who loathe Corbyn, even among Remainers, so I think their vote share will be well down on 2017.
    Yes Remainers, you can stay in the EU. But under an anti-semite PM.....
    I don’t think much of the public gives a shit about Jew baiting.
    Sadly!
    I think they do. It will be an issue that continues to damage Corbyn, and quite rightly so
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    I would dispute the easy bit, but it might be the easiest out of these options.

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1111663853060927488
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    edited March 2019
    2/1 a No Deal on 12 Apr?

    That is Ladbrokes attempting to mug their customers without even bothering with the mask and the blunt instrument.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2019
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm expecting a general election on May 23rd or May 30th.

    What’s the latest date that Parliament would need to vote for a dissolution for that to happen?

    23rd May would be strongly preferable. The absurdity of having to complete a ballot for the EU 3 years after we voted to leave will remind Leavers to vote Tory.
    15th April would be latest date for Dissolution to make an election possible on 23rd May. Probably preceded by a Parliamentary vote on 12th April.
This discussion has been closed.