politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new politics where the young ones actually turn
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shows what a crazy night it was when a party can lose half its seats and end up with 50% more than it started.tpfkar said:
Almost. I'd have taken 12 seats in a flash if you'd offered it yesterday. But to lose NE Fife by 2, Richmond Park by 45, Ceredigion by 104 and St Ives by 312 - that hurts. It should have been better.archer101au said:I congratulate the Labour and LD supporters on a great campaign and a great night. I am sure you are having fun right now.
However, one thing seems to be overlooked. When the sun rises tomorrow, there will be a Tory Government.0 -
Andrew Neil's been up all night without time to snack, poor guy keeps slipping up and talking about May's mandate for Breakfast0
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The LibDem miss by two in NE Fife must be a record closeness for any postwar constituency election?0
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'Chase me'Pauly said:
I see myself as more of a Sammy Wilson type figure.old_labour said:
Are you Nigel Dodds?Pauly said:
The pansies better swallow their pride for the national interest.old_labour said:Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/8720265220429905940 -
Indeed, but this is the hand we've been dealt. We can't go back to the public and assume that we'll win. Look at what happened this time.JackW said:
Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.old_labour said:Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.
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Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
Tactically they should let Corbyn drown himself. If she stays, they own the chaos and Corbyn is in by landslide in October. I hope she stays. And they get obliterated 97 styleJackW said:
Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.old_labour said:Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.
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Labour in Canterbury. Labour to hold (not win) Ynys Mon was a steal. I also backed NOM with Labour and Tory minority governments, based on the gold standard Yougov and Survation polls.Lucian_Fletcher said:Lol. Made a profit on the election. Almost every call I made was wrong but I backed Labour in Canterbury!
But probably the biggest winners just dumped large stakes on safe seats at odds-on, with the early ricks on vulnerable seats as the icing on the cake.0 -
“I believe and I’ve said – and I think I said it last year – that we can turn these polls around.”
Credit where it's due. Solid prediction from Diane Abbott.0 -
I still don't understand why they didn't.MaxPB said:
That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.old_labour said:
Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.MaxPB said:
Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.FF43 said:Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.
That was a real open goal.0 -
Lucian, you know I love you dearly but may I suggest that you and fellow Conservative supporters hold off telling others what is silly for a bit until the memory of this Grade A Clusterfuck fades in the memory a little.Lucian_Fletcher said:Labour can't form a government that's just silly. May needs to form a minority government, hand over either to someone competent or to Boris. DUP won't bring down the government. They just squeezed out every vote they can. Only way from where they are is down.
Boris isn't a runner. The EU would scarcely bother talking to him, and simply wouldn't take him seriously.
Someone competent? Credible alternatives are thin on the ground, but has anybody asked if Kenneth Clarke is free? He does at least command the respect of the whole house. It need only be until the pain stops hurting a bit and everyone feels they can face another election.
Hopefully by that time all the Parties will have thought about it a bit and decided who and what they want to put up to those troublesome voters.0 -
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
Except then Labour would just have promised £700m a week for the NHS. The Conservative party should be the party of wise public spending.MaxPB said:
That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.old_labour said:
Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.MaxPB said:
Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.FF43 said:Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.
The Tory Leave campaign opened the gates to socialism and high spending and now we are all going to have to pay the price.0 -
Now that IS naughty.Theuniondivvie said:
'Chase me'Pauly said:
I see myself as more of a Sammy Wilson type figure.old_labour said:
Are you Nigel Dodds?Pauly said:
The pansies better swallow their pride for the national interest.old_labour said:Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/8720265220429905940 -
Good points. Corbyn is actually boxed in as a lot of the swing to Labour is not really based on a firm support for his outlook. Much of the affluent Southern swing to Labour would be horrified if the full manifesto was actually implemented. Corbyn voting against immigration restrictions or security measures will not be poular with many who voted Labour this time. The hung parliament will mean the Labour manifesto and Corbyn and McDonell will be examined in detail for the first time for many Labour voters.Cookie said:Well, I'm obviously very disappointed with this result. But what does this all mean?
The problem with democracy is that it isn't an essay question. You just get to put a cross in a box; you dodn't get to specify what sort of conservatism or socialism or liberalism you want. A pity, though it would make counts very long. Before we jerk too many knees, we should recognise that the Conservative Party has achieved the third highest vote total of any party ever, and outpolled Tony Blair in 1997. The country has wholesale rejected conservatism - though if course, it is hard to know what shade of conservatism its conservative voters might prefer. That said, there are clearly many, many voters for whom the status quo offers so little that they are prepared to dabble with Corbynism in the hope of something different. The twitter warriors are a tiny minority of these. I don't believe many Labour voters want to see Britain turned into Venezuela. What they do want is what many Conservatives also want: job security, pay rises, better public services, an answer to tuition fees.
Our system tends to polarise us into two camps, when the reality is that thre are a wide spectrum of opinions. Perhaps as a result of this election we might have to pay heed to some of the issues we currently aren't adressing. That's no bad thing. That's how democracy should work.
I can't, can't reconcile myselt to Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. To me, they are far beyond the pale. But most of their voters, most of their members, most of their MPs are not a different tribe; they are decent people who have a different set of priorities to me or a differnet approach to getting to the same broad goal.
Britain hasn't changed its mind. Britain isn't a single entity dithering between two choices. It is 60-odd million people weighing up hundreds and hundreds of issues and value sets. A relatively small proportion of Britons have decided to express their priorities through the democtratic system a different way. For some of us, the outcome is disappointing, but that doesn't shake my belief in democracy.0 -
Ha, I didn't realise Angus Robertson had lost his seat.
Well, that's a bright spot, at least.0 -
Think I'm about £100 up... Would have been closer to £1000 if bloody Zac hadn't ruined it in Richmond Park!DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour in Canterbury. Labour to hold (not win) Ynys Mon was a steal. I also backed NOM with Labour and Tory minority governments, based on the gold standard Yougov and Survation polls.Lucian_Fletcher said:Lol. Made a profit on the election. Almost every call I made was wrong but I backed Labour in Canterbury!
But probably the biggest winners just dumped large stakes on safe seats at odds-on, with the early ricks on vulnerable seats as the icing on the cake.
Many thanks to Pulpstar (?) for his Wales Labour tips.0 -
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.
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Not true whoever is recommended as having confidence of the house is leader, ie acting Conservative Party leader. Besides she could announce her intention to resign and serve until after the leadership election like Cameron did.dyedwoolie said:If May resigns as PM then Corbyn is PM until his QS is voted down.
Her option is to resign as leader but stay as PM if she has the confidence of the house.0 -
A numerically viable alternative is doing a deal with Sturgeon. Give her a seat in the Brexit negotiations and agree to the referendum demand between the deal and independence.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but this is the hand we've been dealt. We can't go back to the public and assume that we'll win. Look at what happened this time.JackW said:
Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.old_labour said:Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.
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Mr. Punter, I agree Boris is unfit, but Ken Clarke? An arch EU-phile just as we're about to negotiate leaving the EU?
It's not going to happen.0 -
Mr Fire,
Haven't Labour said that they accept the EU referendum result?
If they do get into government, I can see them concocting a form of words which means they'll present a deal which means basically no change with the EU and leaving in name only. The problem they'll have is explaining this.
Ah, now I understand, they are politicians after all. Saying mutually incompatible things is second nature.
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Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.
Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?0 -
How can any sort of sensible Brexit deal now be negotiated?FF43 said:Theresa May or her successor can get a Brexit deal through, but it needs the support of Labour to see off any potential rebellion on Tory benches. The DUP won't provide the numbers. The Conservative leadership needs to have serious talks with Keir Starmer.
A lot of the Labour vote yesterday probably thought they were voting against Brexit and will be horrified if they see it keep going.
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Osborne promised high spending and no tax rises and borrowed hundreds of billions more than he predicted. None of his vanity projects were ever left short of money.JonathanD said:
Except then Labour would just have promised £700m a week for the NHS. The Conservative party should be the party of wise public spending.MaxPB said:
That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.old_labour said:
Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.MaxPB said:
Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.FF43 said:Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.
The Tory Leave campaign opened the gates to socialism and high spending and now we are all going to have to pay the price.
2015 was when the everlasting magic money tree was promised.0 -
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
Red Kensington.0
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Paisley and Ren South. I banged the desk because I thought Lab had won but the TV sound was so bad I got it all wrong. Looked a right tit!FF43 said:
They were lucky not to lose more. The SNP benefited from a mixup about Unionist tactical voting where voters went for the Tories by mistake in seats Labour would have won.Cosmic said:The SNP had more net losses than the Tories.
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Well played Scotland - I look forward to collecting from malc.
Also some good feedback on the Con campaign - clear it was a disaster and lessons to be learned. May should stay on for a bit but not too long.
And thanks Mark Senior for the Cambridge tip - helped reduce other losses.
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No, there was also a Labour plan to write off the student debt of those currently on courses and maybe even those who had finished.Boothman said:Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.
Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?0 -
A lot also thought they were voting for better funded public services and cheaper homes, safe in the knowledge that the Brexit decision was made a year ago and Labour had accepted it...JonathanD said:A lot of the Labour vote yesterday probably thought they were voting against Brexit and will be horrified if they see it keep going.
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Mr Boothman,
"Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."
It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.0 -
Corbo's "interesting policies" didn't harm him.JackW said:
Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.old_labour said:Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.
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Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?dyedwoolie said:
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
It may be that YouGov has really cracked the problem of projecting the results of general elections, with this Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification business. It sounds like a sensible thing to do, and despite all the scepticism it has worked well. The largest error in the projected number of seats for the main parties was an underestimate of 14 for the Conservatives.not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
LOLold_labour said:Red Kensington.
Charles ** and the posh folk will have to move to a proper Conservative constituency.
Such as Morley or Mansfield or Middlesbrough South.
** I think I'm right that Charles lives in Kensington constituency.
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Faisal: Under Corbyn, Labour has highest share of vote since Labour in 1997.0
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Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit pollpaulyork64 said:
Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?dyedwoolie said:
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
Thanks to @Pulpstar for the Lab Ynys Mon tip. One of the few winners I had. Overall down about half.0
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OK but who pays for the bribe? it has to be either the young, or the old, or the middle.CD13 said:Mr Boothman,
"Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."
It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.0 -
I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.0
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Indeed.CD13 said:Mr Boothman,
"Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."
It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.
Couple that with the threat to inheritances from dementia.0 -
I would have made that the flagship policy of an otherwise very boring manifesto. Every time public spending came up, "we're gong to invest the £350m per week promised in the NHS" every time the economy came up, "our manifesto is fully costed so we can afford to invest the £350m per week into the NHS".JonathanD said:
Except then Labour would just have promised £700m a week for the NHS. The Conservative party should be the party of wise public spending.MaxPB said:
That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.old_labour said:
Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.MaxPB said:
Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.FF43 said:Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.
The Tory Leave campaign opened the gates to socialism and high spending and now we are all going to have to pay the price.
It was the winning strategy, that with "Brexit means Brexit" repeated over and over again would have got us a fairly healthy majority. Relating everything back to protecting the NHS and ensuring that our figures add up so we can continue to invest in it was the basis of the 2010 victory which saw us gain 90 seats.0 -
Agreed.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Amber Rudd being talked up IMO... She barely clung on and is very associated with the TM project.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, I agree Boris is unfit, but Ken Clarke? An arch EU-phile just as we're about to negotiate leaving the EU?
It's not going to happen.
I'm really hoping Phil Hammond stands as the heavyweight candidate. Boris surely will run.
I've also had a nibble on Rory Stewart. Probably too early for him - but I think he is impressive.0 -
Indeed but in a way not.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
The Conservatives got their best ever vote in Wakefield with an 11% increase.
DH and his team did their stuff.
And they did even better in adjacent Morley constituency.
The Conservative failing was in other places.0 -
Thank you. An extraordinary result. He was the one who gave me the East Lothian tip. As you say we're all corbynites now. The baddies have lost which is more important than worrying about who has wonTheuniondivvie said:
Congrats on your relly's majority, & your E.Lothian tip, I completely misread the SLab surge. We are all Corbynites now.Roger said:They are asking how the Tories can do a deal with a Party which believes the world is less than 10,000 years old? The DUP aren't Orthodox Jews are they?
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I doubt he would be happy with the award.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Looks like the DUP with 292,000 votes is trying to dictate Theresa May's "Strong And Stable" negotiations with the EU.0
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Yes. Either that, or RochdalePioneers' post the other day about why people are voting for Corbyn rather than May's uninspiring campaign, which also proved remarkably prescient. I don't think RP has ever written a thread-leading post for PB, but maybe he should be invited to.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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ThomasNashe said:
I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Staying up is proving to be easier said then done. May have a nap soon.0
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Well said. Some sterling performances in what must have been difficult circumstances on the ground in the last couple of weeks.another_richard said:
Perhaps but in a way not.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
The Conservatives got their best ever vote in Wakefield with an 11% increase.
DH and his team did their stuff.
And they did even better in adjacent Morley constituency.
The Conservative failing was in other places.
Kudos to the team in Middlesbrough South too, considering what happened in Stockton South.0 -
Or the extremely young/those not yet born.paulyork64 said:
OK but who pays for the bribe? it has to be either the young, or the old, or the middle.CD13 said:Mr Boothman,
"Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."
It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.0 -
Right I have to do some work and I'm already feeling exhausted.
Have fun, there's plenty to talk about but be nice to each other.
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I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.0
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well I never knew that. where was all this information?dyedwoolie said:
Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit pollpaulyork64 said:
Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?dyedwoolie said:
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
and thanks. sorry bit tired.paulyork64 said:
well I never knew that. where was all this information?dyedwoolie said:
Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit pollpaulyork64 said:
Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?dyedwoolie said:
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
Gold Stars are due this morning to TSE who has been calling Mrs May all sorts of unpleasant names for months now, David Herdson for his shocking but oh so perceptive post on Tuesday evening, YouGov and Survation for sticking to their guns, although YouGov's resolve weakened at the 11th hour and, of course not forgetting OGH for spotting the huge impact of the hugely increased youth vote and for pointing out the wisdom of his spread bet involving a sale of Tory Seats when they were still at heady heights.
Finally some credit goes to an unnamed poster from S.W. London, modesty forbids, who came up with some smashing bets, resulting in him personally clearing a profit running well into four figures.0 -
Any photoshops of Arlene with Tessy in her pocket yet?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That would be Kezia recommending Lab voters vote Con to keep the SNP out.FF43 said:
They were lucky not to lose more. The SNP benefited from a mixup about Unionist tactical voting where voters went for the Tories by mistake in seats Labour would have won.Cosmic said:The SNP had more net losses than the Tories.
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I picked it up from the BBC coverage showing expected seats etcpaulyork64 said:
well I never knew that. where was all this information?dyedwoolie said:
Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit pollpaulyork64 said:
Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?dyedwoolie said:
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
If there's another election soon, then perhaps it be possible for all manifestos to reviewed independently by the Office of Budget Responsibility?
I can't help thinking McDonnell's budget was written by someone who thought he wouldn't be implementing it. And as for arrogance of the Tories not even bothering to cost their's...0 -
So, do the DUP have loyalist paramilitary links?0
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Some of us who supported Corbyn had similar bets!JFN said:I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.
But overall.im up so very pleased both financially and politically.0 -
My own anecdote:
Went to vote in Brentford and Isleworth, not that busy at the polling station.
Looked at my card (just three candidates) and picked "conservative". I've voted Tory in the last 4 elections now, and this was the one - despite Corbyn - in which I felt the least enthusiastic about doing so.
What is the Conservative Party promising to deliver? No strong policies came to mind. At all. I remember them going on and on and on about the opposition, but nothing AT ALL about what they would do for the prosperity of the nation, and to the future benefit of my young children.
For their faults - and they are legion - at least the Labour Party was putting something up there that offered hope and improvement. I didn't believe it was achievable, but the sense remained that there was willing.
May has fucked this up from start to finish. She has no-one else to blame but herself. A charisma-less void outmaneuvered by crypto-communists and appeasers of terror.
It is a very depressing day.0 -
gotcha thanks. I had sky on mainly.dyedwoolie said:
I picked it up from the BBC coverage showing expected seats etcpaulyork64 said:
well I never knew that. where was all this information?dyedwoolie said:
Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit pollpaulyork64 said:
Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?dyedwoolie said:
It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff Northanother_richard said:
Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?not_on_fire said:
Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot onanother_richard said:Re the Exit Poll.
They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.
If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.0 -
One of the extraordinary moments. The Messiah!ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Some of this talk by Labour bods is tripe - the Labour party won 261 seats. That is no mandate to govern.0
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I'd agree that he's one of the most valuable posters, not least because he represents a very under-represented constituency on PB: astute Labour activist.El_Capitano said:
Yes. Either that, or RochdalePioneers' post the other day about why people are voting for Corbyn rather than May's uninspiring campaign, which also proved remarkably prescient. I don't think RP has ever written a thread-leading post for PB, but maybe he should be invited to.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Immigration - the dog that didn't bark?0
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Mr. rkrkrk, Hammond's stock fell a lot after his stand-up routine at the Budget. He might get it, and I'd prefer him to Boris, but not enthusiastic.
Osborne really is a muppet. He'd be PM by lunchtime if he hadn't decided he wanted six jobs rather than five (I wonder if he regrets his vendetta agenda as a cause of the dire result, or feels vindicated by May's meltdown).0 -
ALastair - this was about your ideal outcome wasn't it? Are you still feeling less despondent about this outcome than you would be any of the others?AlastairMeeks said:
Agreed.ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Who is the shrew on Sky News?
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Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.0
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I had a nightmare last night, woke up this morning to find it was real.
At least Corbyn shouldn't get the keys to number 10 but still.........0 -
You are playing Party Politics. The situation is serious. Six months? We've got to get through the next six days first and nobody has a clue where we go from here, least of all the hapless bunch that got us into this f*cking mess.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:
Ask them today, and the voters would probably blame the Tories, but in aix months?Peter_the_Punter said:
Who will the voters blame for the mess?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:I've just heard John McDonnell on the BBC, basically saying Labour can form a minority government without making any formal deals with other parties, an option he firmly ruled out.
He said they'd write a Queen's speech enacting the Labour manifesto, which he thought would get majority support in the Commons. He asked who'd dare vote against abolishing tuition fees.
If Labour do try that approach, it will be a fiasco, and another election will look likely. The question then will be who voters blame for the mess.
I think the voters have a pretty good idea who to blame for the current mess, Robert, don't you? And if you don't you'll get a pretty good idea who when they go to the polls again, which may in fact be fairly soon.
If we have six months of Labour politicians talking about their grand ideas on TV, and complaining that none of the other parties will vote for them while showing absolutely no willingness to compromise the public mood might well change.
Let's see who stands up tall, and talks some sense, and we'll leave the speculation about 'the public mood' until the dust has settled a bit.0 -
Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had0
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So are the other 44 Scottish MPs. Goes both ways. Clear Con majority for English LawsAlistair said:Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.
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Hammond would be a disaster at the ballot box - a greyer duller May.rkrkrk said:
Amber Rudd being talked up IMO... She barely clung on and is very associated with the TM project.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, I agree Boris is unfit, but Ken Clarke? An arch EU-phile just as we're about to negotiate leaving the EU?
It's not going to happen.
I'm really hoping Phil Hammond stands as the heavyweight candidate. Boris surely will run.
I've also had a nibble on Rory Stewart. Probably too early for him - but I think he is impressive.
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Well that was a shocker.
For me the abiding message of the election is that voters want more jam. The JAMs want more jam. People are tired of just coping and want some jam sprayed around. The 'strong and stable' came across as dull and tightfisted. No jam. The Tories need a new leader. An engaging and likeable one. A human. And one who can steer between pissing our national finances up a wall and investing enough in public services to keep the mob happy enough. This may not be politically possible and we face the same deep national conundrum as before - our appetite for welfarism exceeds our appetite for paying for it.0 -
Incorrect. The labour plan was to back date the legislation so even those currently in Uni would have had their fees written off. In fact they promised to write off fees from some people who have already graduated. It was self interest, which is fair enough.Boothman said:Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.
Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?0 -
Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.0
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The budget is old news now I hope? And perhaps can be blamed on TM?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. rkrkrk, Hammond's stock fell a lot after his stand-up routine at the Budget. He might get it, and I'd prefer him to Boris, but not enthusiastic.
Osborne really is a muppet. He'd be PM by lunchtime if he hadn't decided he wanted six jobs rather than five (I wonder if he regrets his vendetta agenda as a cause of the dire result, or feels vindicated by May's meltdown).
Osborne looked vindicated on TV. He was also I have to say very good at explaining results and pulling out key pieces of information. Put quite a few journalists to shame and didn't pull his ounches about the impact of the result.0 -
.....so it wasnt just a nightmare then.....
Brexit under real threat in my view.
"Why, why, why............Theresa,..........."0 -
Lottery ticket guy myself. You write off the $1 before you buy it and any sort of win is a bonus.TGOHF said:
Never bet more than you can afford to lose.JFN said:I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.
And hedge
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Ken Clarke says otherwise.Roger said:Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had
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I piled into NOC on the markets about 5 minutes before the exit poll came about, on a hunch based on tweets and my own nervousness. That plus Jonny Mercer in Plymouth means I'm up enough for a one-way premium economy flight to Canada ;-)Lucian_Fletcher said:Lol. Made a profit on the election. Almost every call I made was wrong but I backed Labour in Canterbury!
Not that they'd ever let me in permanently, too old and skills in the wrong place.
WillS.0 -
Didn't he recant afterwards ?ThomasNashe said:I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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Thanks to those who tipped Labour to take Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam and, very late in the day, Redding East.Pulpstar said:
Scottish Tory, Tory SW and London Labour bets saved me from misjudging the overall picture !JFN said:I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.
Those constituency bets saved me from a night of very heavy losses.0 -
I am seriously wondered about some of my PB friends. Anybody heard from Woody 662? He was convinced it would be 100+, and he doesn't bet in pennies.TGOHF said:
Never bet more than you can afford to lose.JFN said:I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.
And hedge
Hope he and others are all ok.0
