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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    It was a shocking wake up moment for a lot of us.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    edited June 2017
    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?

    SNP win by 2

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000049

    Or Perth and North Pertshire

    SNP win by 21

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000054
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rkrkrk said:

    Immigration - the dog that didn't bark?

    People have given up thinking the politicians will do anything about it after the tories promised to reduce it at three elections now and it actually went up during their time in office. Which is very limited now I would guess.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    rkrkrk said:

    Mr. rkrkrk, Hammond's stock fell a lot after his stand-up routine at the Budget. He might get it, and I'd prefer him to Boris, but not enthusiastic.

    Osborne really is a muppet. He'd be PM by lunchtime if he hadn't decided he wanted six jobs rather than five (I wonder if he regrets his vendetta agenda as a cause of the dire result, or feels vindicated by May's meltdown).

    The budget is old news now I hope? And perhaps can be blamed on TM?

    Osborne looked vindicated on TV. He was also I have to say very good at explaining results and pulling out key pieces of information. Put quite a few journalists to shame and didn't pull his ounches about the impact of the result.
    Osborne looked incredibly glum when the seats were all falling to Labour and we were wobbling badly and underperforming the exit poll. He still wants the party to succeed. He needs to come back.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    Alistair said:

    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.

    They have an easy majority.

    47 other Scottish MPs can't vote
    8 other NI MPs can't vote
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913

    If the DUP won't countenance special status for Northern Ireland in the EU, and they won't countenance a hard border with Ireland, then the cost of a deal will have to be that we forget any idea of leaving the single market and customs union.

    You could still win your bet with Sean if I've understood it correctly.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,435
    Slept for a couple of hours and it is still a disaster for the UK albeit a good result for Scotland. May's total vote and share of the vote is actually quite impressive, it's Labour's surge and collection of the opposing votes that has undone her.
    I don't see how she survives in anything other than a caretaker role and surely only months even then.
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    I've just heard John McDonnell on the BBC, basically saying Labour can form a minority government without making any formal deals with other parties, an option he firmly ruled out.

    He said they'd write a Queen's speech enacting the Labour manifesto, which he thought would get majority support in the Commons. He asked who'd dare vote against abolishing tuition fees.

    If Labour do try that approach, it will be a fiasco, and another election will look likely. The question then will be who voters blame for the mess.

    Who will the voters blame for the mess?

    I think the voters have a pretty good idea who to blame for the current mess, Robert, don't you? And if you don't you'll get a pretty good idea who when they go to the polls again, which may in fact be fairly soon.
    Ask them today, and the voters would probably blame the Tories, but in aix months?

    If we have six months of Labour politicians talking about their grand ideas on TV, and complaining that none of the other parties will vote for them while showing absolutely no willingness to compromise the public mood might well change.
    You are playing Party Politics. The situation is serious. Six months? We've got to get through the next six days first and nobody has a clue where we go from here, least of all the hapless bunch that got us into this f*cking mess.

    Let's see who stands up tall, and talks some sense, and we'll leave the speculation about 'the public mood' until the dust has settled a bit.
    Agreed
    I was slightly surprised that the "voice of reason" this morning on Today was IDS.
    He more or less said what you did-although i dont recall the F***ing mess bit !!

    Although privately he is probably screaming the place down
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Alistair said:

    So, do the DUP have loyalist paramilitary links?

    Apperently the voters don't care about that stuff.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Don't panic Larry the cat is in charge
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Nigel Evans criticising TMay. Do not find yourself alone with the DUP in the Elizabeth Tower, Nige.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,373
    Floater said:

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    It was a shocking wake up moment for a lot of us.
    He should be awarded both Poster and Tipster Of The Year on the spot.

    I've known David through these pages for many years, and met him, and when he was downbeat, I took it more seriously than any of Survation's polls. Saved me a few quid, I can tell you.

    Hope the lad is OK. He's got a lot on.

    He's a diamond.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    Amen brother!

    Especially if Farage becomes leader again.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?

    SNP win by 2

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000049

    Or Perth and North Pertshire

    SNP win by 21

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000054
    Zac is next door, so more curious about that one. Very surprised he made it, given the shellacking handed out to the Tories in Twickers and Bentford.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
    Absolutely - and it had the essential quality of being widely derided at the time.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644

    Floater said:

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    It was a shocking wake up moment for a lot of us.
    He should be awarded both Poster and Tipster Of The Year on the spot.

    I've known David through these pages for many years, and met him, and when he was downbeat, I took it more seriously than any of Survation's polls. Saved me a few quid, I can tell you.

    Hope the lad is OK. He's got a lot on.

    He's a diamond.
    Absolutely, I'm hopeful he'll do a thread tomorrow morning.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2017

    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?
    And can I congratulate you on your long-standing and perspicacious assessment of May's qualities (or lack thereof).
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    hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    I voted Tory through gritted teeth yesterday but only to support Ruth Davidson and not in anyway to support May. May's hope of a hard Brexit is dead. The Scottish Tories were not elected on a mandate for a hard Brexit and Ruth has clearly stated she does not support one.

    My son who is at Edinburgh Uni went back to Edinburgh to vote Labour for the first time in his life and despite thinking their whole manifesto was rubbish. In addition almost all his friends did the same. This was about the youth vote showing it wanted to be noticed.

    It is not too far to go that almost single handed Ruth Davidson has saved the union. She had the temerity to stand up to the SNP and her success has finally woken up Labour in Scotland.

    So an ultra soft Brexit and no independence appears the route forward. The only question is who will lead the country. I am thinking Hammond. He has been very quiet.








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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Indeed but in a way not.

    The Conservatives got their best ever vote in Wakefield with an 11% increase.

    DH and his team did their stuff.

    And they did even better in adjacent Morley constituency.

    The Conservative failing was in other places.
    The post said that he thought Wakefield would still be won, but for local reasons.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    I have to say the more I think about it the more I feel this is an almost ideal result for me. I think exactly 326 seats would have been ideal as it would have meant Theresa still being knifed but there would be literally no danger of Corbyn coming in or having to ask for S&C from any other party.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    Con Hold Cornwall North.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036
    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,435

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    Amen brother!

    Especially if Farage becomes leader again.
    Leader of what? Does UKIP still exist after last night?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Never been so worried after reading a single post.

    Perhaps Tories need to send people undercover is strong labour wards to find the strength of the opposition vote. You can hit your own target voters but it's no use if every single potential labour voter turns out.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,913

    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
    Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?
    And can I congratulate you on your long-standing and perspicacious assessment of May's qualities (or lack thereof).
    I hoped she would prove me wrong.

    She's shafted so many good Tories.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    Assuming Lab gain Kensington, it's:

    Con + DUP 328

    Opposition 315

    Total 643 (exc SF)

    Majority 13
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,335
    edited June 2017
    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
    Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.
    Nah, the people spoke.

    Brexit would have been even messier if we had no referendum and say in 2020 Dave's replacement put in the Tory manifesto to pull us out of the EU and they won a majority on 35% of the vote
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
    Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.
    No, I meant Ken Clarke was the best Tory leader they never had.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.

    Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.
    Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.
    That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.
    I still don't understand why they didn't.

    That was a real open goal.
    I was calling for the same. I think I may have been one of the infamous "bedwetters" for doing so...
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    Like I said, on average the poll was spot on. Seats is overpredicted the Cons
    MikeL said:

    Assuming Lab gain Kensington, it's:

    Con + DUP 328

    Opposition 315

    Total 643 (exc SF)

    Majority 13

    You need to exclude the Speaker
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?
    And can I congratulate you on your long-standing and perspicacious assessment of May's qualities (or lack thereof).
    Hey, I believe I started hating on her first. It was the ill thought out grammar schools plan/announcement. That was the day I decided she was crap, selective education can be a good thing, but it needs to be selective at all levels, not just one. That was when the veil lifted for me.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,435
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mr. rkrkrk, Hammond's stock fell a lot after his stand-up routine at the Budget. He might get it, and I'd prefer him to Boris, but not enthusiastic.

    Osborne really is a muppet. He'd be PM by lunchtime if he hadn't decided he wanted six jobs rather than five (I wonder if he regrets his vendetta agenda as a cause of the dire result, or feels vindicated by May's meltdown).

    The budget is old news now I hope? And perhaps can be blamed on TM?

    Osborne looked vindicated on TV. He was also I have to say very good at explaining results and pulling out key pieces of information. Put quite a few journalists to shame and didn't pull his ounches about the impact of the result.
    Osborne looked incredibly glum when the seats were all falling to Labour and we were wobbling badly and underperforming the exit poll. He still wants the party to succeed. He needs to come back.
    God yes. May made a host of mistakes but that is right up there.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    edited June 2017

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
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    Nigelb said:

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
    Absolutely - and it had the essential quality of being widely derided at the time.
    I dont think it was derided-there was a question as to whether it was genuine as it was so out of character but i think most people listened to what he said-some bet accordingly -most were more concerned for him as an individual as he was obviously very tired as he later said himself.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
    Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.
    Nah, the people spoke.

    Brexit would have been even messier if we had no referendum and say in 2020 Dave's replacement put in the Tory manifesto to pull us out of the EU and they won a majority on 35% of the vote
    There really was no need for him to resign though, it made an uncertain situation more chaotic than need be.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I suppose the other takeaway is that the Cons should have a proper leadership contest next time - not a coronation - they don't seem to work.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say the more I think about it the more I feel this is an almost ideal result for me. I think exactly 326 seats would have been ideal as it would have meant Theresa still being knifed but there would be literally no danger of Corbyn coming in or having to ask for S&C from any other party.
    I'm looking at the same silver lining. It's a very thin one, though.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    Like I said, on average the poll was spot on. Seats is overpredicted the Cons
    MikeL said:

    Assuming Lab gain Kensington, it's:

    Con + DUP 328

    Opposition 315

    Total 643 (exc SF)

    Majority 13

    You need to exclude the Speaker
    No. Lab supplies two deputy speakers, Con supply one. None of the four vote.

    Which is why BBC count Speaker as Con.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,373

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,399
    Floater said:

    I had a nightmare last night, woke up this morning to find it was real.

    At least Corbyn shouldn't get the keys to number 10 but still.........

    Not yet
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    DUP willing to keep May in Office - not a surprise after Forster's earlier remarks.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Wonder how many people voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, given that they were apparently so far behind in the polls there was no way they would ever come anywhere near actually winning?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    JohnO said:

    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

    Totally agree, the more and more I think about it, this feels like a worse result than 1997.

    To be only ahead of Corbyn by 1.4% means an epic failure on so many levels.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    Should Nicola resign ?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    We can't go for hard brexit now, just get EEA/EFTA take the hit and make the best of it.

    The tories need to hold on until someone at least liveable with is in charge of the labour party.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?

    SNP win by 2

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000049

    Or Perth and North Pertshire

    SNP win by 21

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000054
    Stonking majorities. Support firming up.

    Fife NE was not won by a whisker, it was won by a panda.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    MaxPB said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.

    Have you not seen the Fife result?
    And can I congratulate you on your long-standing and perspicacious assessment of May's qualities (or lack thereof).
    Hey, I believe I started hating on her first. It was the ill thought out grammar schools plan/announcement. That was the day I decided she was crap, selective education can be a good thing, but it needs to be selective at all levels, not just one. That was when the veil lifted for me.
    Ok, you can have a cookie too. London house prices look set to fall, that must cheer you up a bit...
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
    Not according to the BBC just now, she isn't. She thinks she can hang on.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    LucyJones said:

    Wonder how many people voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, given that they were apparently so far behind in the polls there was no way they would ever come anywhere near actually winning?

    Not sure, but it proves that you should never ever assume that an election is in the bag for anyone as you go to vote !
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Alistair said:

    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.

    Er, the Tories have 297 of 533 English seats.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,373
    JohnO said:

    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

    Commisserations John. You deserved better even if the Government didn't.

    Would Ken Clarke do as an interim replacement until the Party sorts itself out a bit? It really can't afford another f*ck up and he is totally dependable and trusted.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319

    JohnO said:

    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

    Totally agree, the more and more I think about it, this feels like a worse result than 1997.

    To be only ahead of Corbyn by 1.4% means an epic failure on so many levels.
    2.4% (UK)
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Glad I dont bet on politics, last night was traumatic enough without that
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036
    LucyJones said:

    Wonder how many people voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, given that they were apparently so far behind in the polls there was no way they would ever come anywhere near actually winning?

    Agree. Many voted Tory in 2015 for similar reasons.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    JohnO said:

    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

    Totally agree, the more and more I think about it, this feels like a worse result than 1997.

    To be only ahead of Corbyn by 1.4% means an epic failure on so many levels.
    Yes, at least with Blair he was essentially running a fairly Tory spending plan, this feels like "one more mistake and we're handing over the keys of No 10 to a lunatic". There is literally no room for error and we don't have the respite of opposition to regroup and find the kind of talent needed for the next few years.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,335

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's that one should avoid saying an issue is settled or finished or decided.

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    SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    LucyJones said:

    Wonder how many people voted Labour thinking it was "safe" to do so, given that they were apparently so far behind in the polls there was no way they would ever come anywhere near actually winning?

    Perhaps the same number who voted for Brexit thinking it wouldn't win?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Alistair said:

    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.

    Of course same might be true of the coalition of chaos
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Agree with that.
    Thankfully May's deficiencies were exposed now before she could do long term damage in the Brexit divorce proceedings.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
    Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.
    Nah, the people spoke.

    Brexit would have been even messier if we had no referendum and say in 2020 Dave's replacement put in the Tory manifesto to pull us out of the EU and they won a majority on 35% of the vote
    There really was no need for him to resign though, it made an uncertain situation more chaotic than need be.
    Cameron told us he would not resign if we voted to Leave. We voted to Leave. He resigned.

    Cameron bears a significant amount of responsibility for last night. If he hadn't resigned, we would not have had May and then she wouldn't have felt the need to go to the country to get her own mandate from the voters. (Although, I concede that he would have been in a very difficult situation fronting Brexit. So he should have said he would resign if he lost - would probably have been enough to win it for Remain.)
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    Well blimey.

    The other day I wondered on here whether we could be sure that Corbyn in power would ever voluntarily relinquish it. I cited his approval of Maoist regimes and his disregard of things like no confidence votes in support.

    The responses were along the lines that existing constitutional constraints would prevent any such thing; oddly nobody suggested that Corbyn himself would never contemplate any such thing.

    Here we are this morning and we have Corbyn 55 seats begin declaring victory.

    I wasn't wrong about him.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    BBC just said young vote turnout is 72%???
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    Andy JS....thanks for your spreadsheet...Swindon North convinced me it was safe to pile on NOM.....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    Should Nicola resign ?
    Nah, they won the majority of seats.

    Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    I voted Tory through gritted teeth yesterday but only to support Ruth Davidson and not in anyway to support May. May's hope of a hard Brexit is dead. The Scottish Tories were not elected on a mandate for a hard Brexit and Ruth has clearly stated she does not support one.

    My son who is at Edinburgh Uni went back to Edinburgh to vote Labour for the first time in his life and despite thinking their whole manifesto was rubbish. In addition almost all his friends did the same. This was about the youth vote showing it wanted to be noticed.

    It is not too far to go that almost single handed Ruth Davidson has saved the union. She had the temerity to stand up to the SNP and her success has finally woken up Labour in Scotland.

    So an ultra soft Brexit and no independence appears the route forward. The only question is who will lead the country. I am thinking Hammond. He has been very quiet.








    This talk of hard and soft Brexit is nonsense. If we leave the EU we leave the Single Market (inc free movement).
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's that one should avoid saying an issue is settled or finished or decided.

    Obviously the result in Scotland means the people want another referendum - oh
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036
    Youth turnout 72%. Seems they could register AND get out of bed. Who'd have thunk it?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    LucyJones said:

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
    Not according to the BBC just now, she isn't. She thinks she can hang on.

    Theresa May will not fight the next election. The Prime Minister can resign soon, or be forced out later. Those are her only choices.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    May will get all the blame and carry the can, but the hubris of the Tory back office operation is worth reflecting on too. Both Messina and Crosby have had their reputations destroyed by this result. It was them sending May to those constituencies and putting her in warehouses and security-swept factories.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Glad I dont bet on politics, last night was traumatic enough without that

    I was actually feeling physically sick at 10 05 last night

    But hey, life goes on

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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    To what extend did differential age turnout, compared to predictions, screw up the Tory seat targeting? Or was that screwed up by other factors? Certainly it seems the Tory effort was directed to seats in a sub-optimal way...
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

    Totally agree, the more and more I think about it, this feels like a worse result than 1997.

    To be only ahead of Corbyn by 1.4% means an epic failure on so many levels.
    Yes, at least with Blair he was essentially running a fairly Tory spending plan, this feels like "one more mistake and we're handing over the keys of No 10 to a lunatic". There is literally no room for error and we don't have the respite of opposition to regroup and find the kind of talent needed for the next few years.

    For me it was as exciting as 1997....after all the disappointments of recent years.

    Well done to Nick Palmer and BigNight for sticking with Corbyn through thick and thin
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Well blimey.

    The other day I wondered on here whether we could be sure that Corbyn in power would ever voluntarily relinquish it. I cited his approval of Maoist regimes and his disregard of things like no confidence votes in support.

    The responses were along the lines that existing constitutional constraints would prevent any such thing; oddly nobody suggested that Corbyn himself would never contemplate any such thing.

    Here we are this morning and we have Corbyn 55 seats begin declaring victory.

    I wasn't wrong about him.

    Indeed. He would still be a rubbish PM. The problem is, the current PM does not exactly sparkle.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
    Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2017

    Alistair said:

    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.

    Er, the Tories have 297 of 533 English seats.
    I haven't slept.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    Theresa May to visit the palace at 12.30pm to seek permission to form a government.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    May seeking permission from Queen to form government - lets lock out Jezza
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    edited June 2017
    The strangest election since the 1920's. May's strategy almost paid off. The Tories did gain strongly in many working class areas, but mostly not by enough. And, they alienated middle class Remainers.

    The government, even though weak, may last a long time, as only a Conservative government is viable on these numbers.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I am looking forward to hearing some stories from tissue price. Such a shame he couldn't pull it off this time, though maybe he will have to stay quiet in case he has another try soon.
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Surely she has to resign today, her authority, in Parlt, in the country and vs the EU, is not just diminished, in my view it is irredemiably broken. She must announce she she is standing down
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    LucyJones said:

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
    Not according to the BBC just now, she isn't. She thinks she can hang on.

    Theresa May will not fight the next election. The Prime Minister can resign soon, or be forced out later. Those are her only choices.
    This. She'll go when another leading Tory decides they want to take over.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    Should Nicola resign ?
    Nah, they won the majority of seats.

    Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.
    Also her main (only) rival , Eck , is without a seat.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sean_F said:

    The strangest election since the 1920's.

    Still laughing at people who were complaining that this election would be boring.

    We trully live in interesting times and as a nation we are going to catch hell come the next recession
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,036

    Well blimey.

    The other day I wondered on here whether we could be sure that Corbyn in power would ever voluntarily relinquish it. I cited his approval of Maoist regimes and his disregard of things like no confidence votes in support.

    The responses were along the lines that existing constitutional constraints would prevent any such thing; oddly nobody suggested that Corbyn himself would never contemplate any such thing.

    Here we are this morning and we have Corbyn 55 seats begin declaring victory.

    I wasn't wrong about him.

    Oh yes you were. You under-estimated him. Now May is in coalition with terrorist apologists and young Earth creationists.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963
    edited June 2017

    Nigelb said:

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
    Absolutely - and it had the essential quality of being widely derided at the time.
    I dont think it was derided-there was a question as to whether it was genuine as it was so out of character but i think most people listened to what he said-some bet accordingly -most were more concerned for him as an individual as he was obviously very tired as he later said himself.
    I'd have to check, but my memory is that it was, while not universally by any means, widely rejected as a prediction, despite the clear respect and affection he's held in.
    A lot of comments about how a 'bad street' can happen to anyone while canvassing.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Hills have yet to settle on 10/1 against Over 65% Turnout, No Overall Majority. One result left.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
    Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.
    Nah, the people spoke.

    Brexit would have been even messier if we had no referendum and say in 2020 Dave's replacement put in the Tory manifesto to pull us out of the EU and they won a majority on 35% of the vote
    There really was no need for him to resign though, it made an uncertain situation more chaotic than need be.
    Cameron told us he would not resign if we voted to Leave. We voted to Leave. He resigned.
    He lied to the House, repeatedly.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's that one should avoid saying an issue is settled or finished or decided.

    Very true.

    Whilst I expecting the SCon surge, and a good performance from the Lib Dems, was not expecting the SLAB surge.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,373

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
    Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
    The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.

    A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

    But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

    So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

    I'm spending some time in my own dungeons with Mrs JackW in charge of the my wallet. Cruel and unusual punishment I tell you .... but deserved .... :cry:
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Theresa May to visit the palace at 12.30pm to seek permission to form a government.

    She kind of has to do that I guess. But it's a real mess.

    Keeping corbyn out of No10 has to be the priority, Even if it means allowing labour to win in the future with a more reasonable leader.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    BBC -- Dimbleby, Neil and Laura K all seem very tired and are making verbal slips. The BBC needs to think about more reasonable shifts next time.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

    She's resigning today.

    I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
    Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
    Hard to see who that Unity candidate would be though.

    Rory, your time is now!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,644
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

    Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
    I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
    Should Nicola resign ?
    Nah, they won the majority of seats.

    Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.
    Also her main (only) rival , Eck , is without a seat.
    Who is likely to be SNP leader at Westminster?

    Pete Wishart?
This discussion has been closed.