I am short GBP on basis that pound has only fallen a bit because market sniffs hard brexit averted; but possibly likely to unravel next few days as it emerges May is going to battle on regardless, with a gun now held to her head by DUP & Duncan Smfuith type Eurosceptic hardliners - for me we are in worse possible scenario; she is very, very weakened but sceptics still in driving seat. Clock ticking. No evidence now brexit will go mega soft despite Osborne tweets, or are there enough Tory pro Europeans to detail and I am misreading?
Excellent post. Asks all the right questions, but f*ck knows what the answers are.
This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind
I doubt if they're going to implement DUP policies across England, Wales and Scotland. The concessions will be on issues like enacting a statute of limitations for ex-servicemen, which won't be unpopular.
I agree. Much as I hate the DUP. Having said that I know Arlene was unimpressed by the Tory campaign.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Really? Which Conservatives have given you that impression?
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time well end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Yes in any normal circumstances that would be a potential strategy. But there is Brexit to contend with. Labour can't be trusted with it.
It depends, if there is another election within a year then he will do better and possibly edge into the lead. If we can hold the line until 2022 then his bungling nature might actually see him fall internally. We know that he is a serial bungler, but a good campaigner. Hold off the next campaign for as long as possible and build up a decent leadership team over the next five years.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Yes, I suspect even more would join their mates to go with the flow if there is another election is called in a few months. Lots of sweeties and little experience of paying for them unfortunately
To what extend did differential age turnout, compared to predictions, screw up the Tory seat targeting? Or was that screwed up by other factors? Certainly it seems the Tory effort was directed to seats in a sub-optimal way...
The targeting was correct in some ways.
What was not anticipated was Remain Conservatives in prosperous seats switching to Labour.
"No deal is better than a bad deal" is actually a good negotiating position, and is certainly smarter than the alternative.
But saying it before a GE and people (wrongly) assuming that she wanted hard Brexit? Insanity.
Perhaps this was the problem with calling a snap election; the overall strategy was not being thought through.
It is an utterly stupid negotiating position. This is a divorce. While there must theoretically be a worse deal than never seeing your children again and not getting your part share of the house, it is not the position to go in on. The sensible starting position is that we are adults, we don't wish to be in this position, but let's try to sort out something that works and do what's best for the children. I can do the childcare in the holidays if that helps.
Theresa May never got that. Brexit needs a reset and she needs to be replaced for that reason.
Theresa May to visit the palace at 12.30pm to seek permission to form a government.
HMQ should tell her no - You've lost - Bring me someone else.
She has 57 more seats than the next biggest party and ±750,000 more votes - on what basis is that" losing"?
I don't mean the Conservative shouldn't form the next government... But this woman, Theresa The House Snatcher - Has been defeated and humiliated - She's got to go - And if nobody in the Tory Party has the guts to tell her, HMQ should!
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time, we'll end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Labour don't have close to the numbers to form a government. Even the backing of Plaid, SNP, and Greens would only take them up to 300.
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time well end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Yes in any normal circumstances that would be a potential strategy. But there is Brexit to contend with. Labour can't be trusted with it.
Wherever you stand right now Brexit is fucked; it's fast EEA or bust.
I think they're much closer. May said this was an election backing Brexit. She didn't get it. It's now down to parliamentary arithmatic. There are many ways the MPs can push it into the long grass and as 75% were against leaving the EU apart from paying lip service to 'the wishes of the people' they now have the power to do it.
There are not enough Tory Eurofanatics to make a difference and there are still the Labour Eurosceptics who will make sure it stays on course.
All the Tories disappeared off TV screens as they are petrified brexit will be derailed/watered down if they lose control of parliament presumably? Livid with May for her appalling campaign but realise they need to cling onto her as a caretaker until they find another pilot to keep the swivel-eyed hard exit project on track? They would love to knife her in typically brutal Tory way, but realise their 25 year EU exit crusade will melt away if they don't shore her up and rally round to at least get negotiations underway...then bullet her in the Autumn? I would guess she would want to go as she clearly hated the gig in recent weeks, but hard-line Eurosceptics will be pressuring her desperately to stay?
I am short GBP on basis that pound has only fallen a bit because market sniffs hard brexit averted; but possibly likely to unravel next few days as it emerges May is going to battle on regardless, with a gun now held to her head by DUP & Duncan Smith type Eurosceptic hardliners - for me we are in worse possible scenario; she is very, very weakened but sceptics still in driving seat. Clock ticking. No evidence now brexit will go mega soft despite Osborne tweets, or are there enough Tory pro Europeans to detail and I am misreading?
Market thinks brexit cancelled / softened, but Davis prob in negotiations in 10 days time, just more captive to swivel-eyed hard-line loons than anytime since the vote last year; just a gut reaction that Osborne disagreed with on ITV; what do you guys think?
I think there is a lot of feeling this morning (at least my WhatsApp messages say so) that we can't make any false moves now, one more and Jez starts measuring up for curtains in No 10. That alone will keep the headbangers in line. The DUP are looking for soft-Brexit so that won't be an issue.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
If it goes to a second election they might get it.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Really? Which Conservatives have given you that impression?
- ICM are the gold standard - 18-24 year olds don't vote - All UKIP voters are Tories on holiday - Lynton Crosby knows what he's doing - The electorate wants Hard Brexit
The youth turnout is genuinely encouraging, whatever people think of the result. Grey power should not be the only driver for manifestos.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Agreed. The Tories could go down the 1923 route and refuse to govern, put Jezza in for a year and then collapse the administration next year - From the 1923 defeat the Tories won a landslide in 1924.
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time well end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Yes in any normal circumstances that would be a potential strategy. But there is Brexit to contend with. Labour can't be trusted with it.
Wherever you stand right now Brexit is fucked; it's fast EEA or bust.
I don't see brexit in doubt, that would have required a lib dem surge.
A couple of reflections before switching off for the day to recharge the batteries with a walk up Ingleborough....
The explanation for the result is perfectly simple: May calculated that Corbyn was voter repellent but he wasn't... everything else flows from that simple misjudgement. The saving grace was that the secondary assumption, that the SNP had stumbled badly by calling for a second referendum, proved to be correct.
There were those who had ridiculed Project Fear during the Brexit referendum who spent six weeks tweeting photographs of Corbyn at rallies in the 1970s oblivious to the fact that it wasn't working... they are hoisted upon their petards.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
Shacking up with the DUP isn't a good look and, however firm the arrangement looks at the outset, I cannot see that ending happily.
It depends, if there is another election within a year then he will do better and possibly edge into the lead. If we can hold the line until 2022 then his bungling nature might actually see him fall internally. We know that he is a serial bungler, but a good campaigner. Hold off the next campaign for as long as possible and build up a decent leadership team over the next five years.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
The left has won the Labour war. That means Corbyn will not be leader in 2022. It won't be McDonnell either. Buy Lisa Nandy for the long term.
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time, we'll end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Labour don't have close to the numbers to form a government. Even the backing of Plaid, SNP, and Greens would only take them up to 300.
Sit out the confidence vote - it's not just up or down, abstain is also an option.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
If it goes to a second election they might get it.
Raving Marxists in the Labour party and a hung parliament. Welcome to 1974!
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
The present situation reminds me of what I thought about Trump versus Clinton, i.e. that each party had managed to pick the only candidate who might be unable to beat the other.
It's fairly clear that a slice of the electorate doesn't care about the IRA support history and has already forgotten what having Gordon Brown in power was like. Traditionally the aversion of older voters to Labour was that they could remember what Labour in government was like but it seems this is already forgotten.
I wonder what the reaction's going to be from Corbyn's new fans when it transpires that he still lost and the Tories are still in power?
The fate of the Fixed Term Parliament Act is now incredibly important. The Tories promised to repeal it but arguably it provides their best defence for the next five years!
This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind
One can only wonder at the DUP shopping list :
1. Reverend Ian Paisley Snr interred in Buckingham Palace. 2. Flat earth atlases in schools. 3. Gays to be thrown off from the walls of the Tower of London 4. Peter Tatchell to be extradited to Mosul 5. RUC reformed. 6. Sinn Fein members to be interned on the Falkland Islands 7. UDA to be merged into the army. 8. Roman Catholic churches to be closed. 9. Dinosaurs to be removed from museums.
It depends, if there is another election within a year then he will do better and possibly edge into the lead. If we can hold the line until 2022 then his bungling nature might actually see him fall internally. We know that he is a serial bungler, but a good campaigner. Hold off the next campaign for as long as possible and build up a decent leadership team over the next five years.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
The left has won the Labour war. That means Corbyn will not be leader in 2022. It won't be McDonnell either. Buy Lisa Nandy for the long term.
Yep. The argument "just imagine if the rebel MPs hadn't undermined Corbyn at every turn and instead pulled together" will be impossible to counter within Labour.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Me neither, but they need to really start thinking about how to do
Lots of sweeties?
I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.
Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.
Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
The present situation reminds me of what I thought about Trump versus Clinton, i.e. that each party had managed to pick the only candidate who might be unable to beat the other.
It's fairly clear that a slice of the electorate doesn't care about the IRA support history and has already forgotten what having Gordon Brown in power was like. Traditionally the aversion of older voters to Labour was that they could remember what Labour in government was like but it seems this is already forgotten.
I wonder what the reaction's going to be from Corbyn's new fans when it transpires that he still lost and the Tories are still in power?
It depends, if there is another election within a year then he will do better and possibly edge into the lead. If we can hold the line until 2022 then his bungling nature might actually see him fall internally. We know that he is a serial bungler, but a good campaigner. Hold off the next campaign for as long as possible and build up a decent leadership team over the next five years.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
The left has won the Labour war. That means Corbyn will not be leader in 2022. It won't be McDonnell either. Buy Lisa Nandy for the long term.
Yep. The argument "just imagine if the rebel MPs hadn't undermined Corbyn at every turn and instead pulled together" will be impossible to counter within Labour.
The only positive is Diane Abbott must have lost him an awful lot of margins. Without her in his team he might be PM. I'm sure she will be permanently ditched as moderates line up to serve him.
This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind
One can only wonder at the DUP shopping list :
1. Reverend Ian Paisley Snr interred in Buckingham Palace. 2. Flat earth atlases in schools. 3. Gays to be thrown off from the walls of the Tower of London 4. Peter Tatchell to be extradited to Mosul 5. RUC reformed. 6. Sinn Fein members to be interned on the Falkland Islands 7. UDA to be merged into the army. 8. Roman Catholic churches to be closed. 9. Dinosaurs to be removed from museums.
Equally to the point, if SF just sit there, can the government avoid another Stormont election (assuming direct rule is a non-starter)? If there is another NI election it will be a proxy for another mini-referendum on the Tory government by NI voters. Given the concerns about Brexit that the province has, it is hard to see the DUP improving its position?
This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind
One can only wonder at the DUP shopping list :
1. Reverend Ian Paisley Snr interred in Buckingham Palace. 2. Flat earth atlases in schools. 3. Gays to be thrown off from the walls of the Tower of London 4. Peter Tatchell to be extradited to Mosul 5. RUC reformed. 6. Sinn Fein members to be interned on the Falkland Islands 7. UDA to be merged into the army. 8. Roman Catholic churches to be closed. 9. Dinosaurs to be removed from museums.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Me neither, but they need to really start thinking about how to do
Lots of sweeties?
I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.
Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.
Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.
Even with fees at 3k, the debt typically is 25k because of maintenance loans.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Me neither, but they need to really start thinking about how to do
Lots of sweeties?
I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.
Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.
Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.
Actually not a bad plan - if we short of key workers, say doctors - pay their fees if they study the relevant subject(s)
All the Tories disappeared off TV screens as they are petrified brexit will be derailed/watered down if they lose control of parliament presumably? Livid with May for her appalling campaign but realise they need to cling onto her as a caretaker until they find another pilot to keep the swivel-eyed hard exit project on track? They would love to knife her in typically brutal Tory way, but realise their 25 year EU exit crusade will melt away if they don't shore her up and rally round to at least get negotiations underway...then bullet her in the Autumn? I would guess she would want to go as she clearly hated the gig in recent weeks, but hard-line Eurosceptics will be pressuring her desperately to stay?
Or it could be that they're all in a room drawing lots for who gets to tell TMay it's all over (or drawing for the short straw for who gets to replace her!)
It depends, if there is another election within a year then he will do better and possibly edge into the lead. If we can hold the line until 2022 then his bungling nature might actually see him fall internally. We know that he is a serial bungler, but a good campaigner. Hold off the next campaign for as long as possible and build up a decent leadership team over the next five years.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
Looking at the last 3 election results, there really was v little difference in the number Tory seats. MOE almost
It depends, if there is another election within a year then he will do better and possibly edge into the lead. If we can hold the line until 2022 then his bungling nature might actually see him fall internally. We know that he is a serial bungler, but a good campaigner. Hold off the next campaign for as long as possible and build up a decent leadership team over the next five years.
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
The left has won the Labour war. That means Corbyn will not be leader in 2022. It won't be McDonnell either. Buy Lisa Nandy for the long term.
The current leadership isn't going anywhere. They think they have a mandate for Government. They have Diane doing the maths right now.
That's my final Diane gag btw. I spoke to a medical person who made me think.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
I am going to go out on a limb here as I have not really crunched the numbers. But it seems to me it is dumb for anyone to blame the young vote for this result (even though of course they did increase their turnout.) That on its own would not have been enough. It took the Tories managing to piss off their core elder vote as well to make the real difference. Yes Corbyn managed to enthuse the young but turnout was only up 2% so it took a lot of older voters to sit on their hands or switch away from the Tories to make this result happen.
The fault for all of this lies squarely with May and her team.
Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.
I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?
Should Nicola resign ?
Nah, they won the majority of seats.
Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.
Also her main (only) rival , Eck , is without a seat.
Who is likely to be SNP leader at Westminster?
Pete Wishart?
I am trying to think which MPs they have who have been their longer than 2 years. Apart from him and Angus McNeil the only other one, and the person I think who is most likely to take over that role is Stewart Hosie.
I am short GBP on basis that pound has only fallen a bit because market sniffs hard brexit averted; but possibly likely to unravel next few days as it emerges May is going to battle on regardless, with a gun now held to her head by DUP & Duncan Smith type Eurosceptic hardliners - for me we are in worse possible scenario; she is very, very weakened but sceptics still in driving seat. Clock ticking. No evidence now brexit will go mega soft despite Osborne tweets, or are there enough Tory pro Europeans to detail and I am misreading?
Market thinks brexit cancelled / softened, but Davis prob in negotiations in 10 days time, just more captive to swivel-eyed hard-line loons than anytime since the vote last year; just a gut reaction that Osborne disagreed with on ITV; what do you guys think?
I think there is a lot of feeling this morning (at least my WhatsApp messages say so) that we can't make any false moves now, one more and Jez starts measuring up for curtains in No 10. That alone will keep the headbangers in line. The DUP are looking for soft-Brexit so that won't be an issue.
The DUP and everyone else on the island of Ireland do not want a hard border. That will be a big motivator.
Time to pay the €100bn and join the EEA like Norway. It gives us EU access without any say in Brussels and puts us in a worse position than we are in today. So everybody "wins". We get access and the EU gets an example of why leaving is worse choice than staying.
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time, we'll end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Labour don't have close to the numbers to form a government. Even the backing of Plaid, SNP, and Greens would only take them up to 300.
Sit out the confidence vote - it's not just up or down, abstain is also an option.
What makes anyone confident that a Corbyn government that lost a confidence vote in the House would then resign?
Brexit Secretary David Davis could be being primed to take the fall for Theresa may's disastrous performance in last night's election.
Mr Davis is now the greatest threat to the Tory leadership.
ITV News' Chris Ship said Boris Johnson's team is "trying to pin the election fail" on him as Mrs May is now "damaged goods".
He added former Chancellor George Osborne had said "Boris (who many have speculated wants to be one day be prime minister) has a little smile on his face today".
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
If it goes to a second election they might get it.
Raving Marxists in the Labour party and a hung parliament. Welcome to 1974!
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Me neither, but they need to really start thinking about how to do
Lots of sweeties?
I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.
Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.
Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.
Even with fees at 3k, the debt typically is 25k because of maintenance loans.
Labour needs to get tactically sharp and start putting some carefully considered proposals and amendments in Parliament. If they choose their ground carefully it will be very difficult for May to hold her side together.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Agreed. The Tories could go down the 1923 route and refuse to govern, put Jezza in for a yea and then collapse the administration next year - From the 1923 defeat the Tories won a landslide in 1924.
If the most important post war negotiations weren't starting in 10 days they may have been tempted. No alternative for May but to stick it out.
Horrific situation all round, but for the fact it's entirely of her own making I'd feel sorry for her.
Watching the Tory election campaign felt like watching the England Iceland football in 2016 - we know what will happen but it'll be good to watch -goal ! - they've equalised. Plenty of time. - they're a goal ahead. Still early. - we need to equalise soon - fuck
This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind
One can only wonder at the DUP shopping list :
1. Reverend Ian Paisley Snr interred in Buckingham Palace. 2. Flat earth atlases in schools. 3. Gays to be thrown off from the walls of the Tower of London 4. Peter Tatchell to be extradited to Mosul 5. RUC reformed. 6. Sinn Fein members to be interned on the Falkland Islands 7. UDA to be merged into the army. 8. Roman Catholic churches to be closed. 9. Dinosaurs to be removed from museums.
Would be funny if UKIP re-surge and take more votes off labour again in the next election.
Brexit won't happen (there's no majority and little will within Parliament to do it) so not only will UKIP under Farage surge but those that have had Brexit stolen from them will be incredibly angry.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Me neither, but they need to really start thinking about how to do
Lots of sweeties?
I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.
Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.
Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.
Expecting everybody to pay more tax so that people who benefit form a University education do have to pay for it, is to me grossly unfair.
Brexit Secretary David Davis could be being primed to take the fall for Theresa may's disastrous performance in last night's election.
Mr Davis is now the greatest threat to the Tory leadership.
ITV News' Chris Ship said Boris Johnson's team is "trying to pin the election fail" on him as Mrs May is now "damaged goods".
He added former Chancellor George Osborne had said "Boris (who many have speculated wants to be one day be prime minister) has a little smile on his face today".
This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind
One can only wonder at the DUP shopping list :
1. Reverend Ian Paisley Snr interred in Buckingham Palace. 2. Flat earth atlases in schools. 3. Gays to be thrown off from the walls of the Tower of London 4. Peter Tatchell to be extradited to Mosul 5. RUC reformed. 6. Sinn Fein members to be interned on the Falkland Islands 7. UDA to be merged into the army. 8. Roman Catholic churches to be closed. 9. Dinosaurs to be removed from museums.
Equally to the point, if SF just sit there, can the government avoid another Stormont election (assuming direct rule is a non-starter)? If there is another NI election it will be a proxy for another mini-referendum on the Tory government by NI voters. Given the concerns about Brexit that the province has, it is hard to see the DUP improving its position?
If Northern Ireland voted in a fresh Assembly election as it did yesterday, the DUP would win very big.
Brexit Secretary David Davis could be being primed to take the fall for Theresa may's disastrous performance in last night's election.
Mr Davis is now the greatest threat to the Tory leadership.
ITV News' Chris Ship said Boris Johnson's team is "trying to pin the election fail" on him as Mrs May is now "damaged goods".
He added former Chancellor George Osborne had said "Boris (who many have speculated wants to be one day be prime minister) has a little smile on his face today".
She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time, we'll end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.
Labour don't have close to the numbers to form a government. Even the backing of Plaid, SNP, and Greens would only take them up to 300.
Sit out the confidence vote - it's not just up or down, abstain is also an option.
What makes anyone confident that a Corbyn government that lost a confidence vote in the House would then resign?
He lost one in his leadership and didn't resign.
Because one was a meaningless advisory vote that had no meaning, the other is not. Labour's rulebook has no such thing as a confidence vote, the way to get rid of a leader is to challenge them - so he called their bluff and won.
Westminster's rulebook does have a confidence vote. Lose that and you're out.
Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.
She's resigning today.
I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.
Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).
The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.
A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.
The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.
I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.
Absolutely correct. The arrogance is astonishing. All I'm hearing is that the silly old British public - and the pampered youth in particular - weren't intellectually equipped enough to appreciate their, and Theresa's, unquestionable talents. I'm starting to think that a bit of the 1997 treatment would do them some good.
I am going to go out on a limb here as I have not really crunched the numbers. But it seems to me it is dumb for anyone to blame the young vote for this result (even though of course they did increase their turnout.) That on its own would not have been enough. It took the Tories managing to piss off their core elder vote as well to make the real difference. Yes Corbyn managed to enthuse the young but turnout was only up 2% so it took a lot of older voters to sit on their hands or switch away from the Tories to make this result happen.
The fault for all of this lies squarely with May and her team.
Yep, that dementia tax, and police numbers were utterly toxic, and really the turning point.
I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?
Agreed. The Tories could go down the 1923 route and refuse to govern, put Jezza in for a yea and then collapse the administration next year - From the 1923 defeat the Tories won a landslide in 1924.
If the most important post war negotiations weren't starting in 10 days they may have been tempted. No alternative for May but to stick it out.
Horrific situation all round, but for the fact it's entirely of her own making I'd feel sorry for her.
Various EU big cheeses are reported as saying Brexit talks can be delayed. The German election is in September which gives plenty of time for Theresa May to be replaced.
Brexit Secretary David Davis could be being primed to take the fall for Theresa may's disastrous performance in last night's election.
Mr Davis is now the greatest threat to the Tory leadership.
ITV News' Chris Ship said Boris Johnson's team is "trying to pin the election fail" on him as Mrs May is now "damaged goods".
He added former Chancellor George Osborne had said "Boris (who many have speculated wants to be one day be prime minister) has a little smile on his face today".
Comments
Remember that Labour are still 50 seats behind and they faced the worst ever post-war Tory leader. The situation is still salvageable, but for Theresa, the time has come for her to leave.
Bravo Theresa
Theresa May never got that. Brexit needs a reset and she needs to be replaced for that reason.
F*ck him.
Oh Nuttall resigns
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40215432
The explanation for the result is perfectly simple: May calculated that Corbyn was voter repellent but he wasn't... everything else flows from that simple misjudgement. The saving grace was that the secondary assumption, that the SNP had stumbled badly by calling for a second referendum, proved to be correct.
There were those who had ridiculed Project Fear during the Brexit referendum who spent six weeks tweeting photographs of Corbyn at rallies in the 1970s oblivious to the fact that it wasn't working... they are hoisted upon their petards.
And the fact she will be knifed by her own party within weeks
Strong and Stable my Arse
Why I’m taking the 20/1 on Farage being UKIP leader at the end of 2017
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/01/a-201-tip-to-start-off-2017/
It's fairly clear that a slice of the electorate doesn't care about the IRA support history and has already forgotten what having Gordon Brown in power was like. Traditionally the aversion of older voters to Labour was that they could remember what Labour in government was like but it seems this is already forgotten.
I wonder what the reaction's going to be from Corbyn's new fans when it transpires that he still lost and the Tories are still in power?
1. Reverend Ian Paisley Snr interred in Buckingham Palace.
2. Flat earth atlases in schools.
3. Gays to be thrown off from the walls of the Tower of London
4. Peter Tatchell to be extradited to Mosul
5. RUC reformed.
6. Sinn Fein members to be interned on the Falkland Islands
7. UDA to be merged into the army.
8. Roman Catholic churches to be closed.
9. Dinosaurs to be removed from museums.
Any ?
I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.
Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.
Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.
That's my final Diane gag btw. I spoke to a medical person who made me think.
The fault for all of this lies squarely with May and her team.
Btw how good were balls but especially ozzie on itv. Must have watched itv 60% and bbc just 40%.
I see prof curtice is noting labour lost as badly as brown did in 2010.
Time to pay the €100bn and join the EEA like Norway. It gives us EU access without any say in Brussels and puts us in a worse position than we are in today. So everybody "wins". We get access and the EU gets an example of why leaving is worse choice than staying.
What a shambles.
He lost one in his leadership and didn't resign.
Will Brexit Secretary David Davis take the blame?
Brexit Secretary David Davis could be being primed to take the fall for Theresa may's disastrous performance in last night's election.
Mr Davis is now the greatest threat to the Tory leadership.
ITV News' Chris Ship said Boris Johnson's team is "trying to pin the election fail" on him as Mrs May is now "damaged goods".
He added former Chancellor George Osborne had said "Boris (who many have speculated wants to be one day be prime minister) has a little smile on his face today".
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2017-06-09/will-brexit-secretary-david-davis-take-the-blame/
Well done
Horrific situation all round, but for the fact it's entirely of her own making I'd feel sorry for her.
- we know what will happen but it'll be good to watch
-goal !
- they've equalised. Plenty of time.
- they're a goal ahead. Still early.
- we need to equalise soon
- fuck
How's the ARSE? Not too sore I hope.
It's going to get nasty,,,
Westminster's rulebook does have a confidence vote. Lose that and you're out.