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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    tpfkar said:

    I congratulate the Labour and LD supporters on a great campaign and a great night. I am sure you are having fun right now.

    However, one thing seems to be overlooked. When the sun rises tomorrow, there will be a Tory Government.

    Almost. I'd have taken 12 seats in a flash if you'd offered it yesterday. But to lose NE Fife by 2, Richmond Park by 45, Ceredigion by 104 and St Ives by 312 - that hurts. It should have been better.
    shows what a crazy night it was when a party can lose half its seats and end up with 50% more than it started.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Andrew Neil's been up all night without time to snack, poor guy keeps slipping up and talking about May's mandate for Breakfast
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    The LibDem miss by two in NE Fife must be a record closeness for any postwar constituency election?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    Pauly said:

    Pauly said:

    Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.

    The pansies better swallow their pride for the national interest.
    Are you Nigel Dodds?
    I see myself as more of a Sammy Wilson type figure.
    'Chase me'

    https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/872026522042990594
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    JackW said:

    Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.

    Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.
    Indeed, but this is the hand we've been dealt. We can't go back to the public and assume that we'll win. Look at what happened this time.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Cosmic said:

    The SNP had more net losses than the Tories.

    The diamond in the rough of a bad - and expensive - night.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    JackW said:

    Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.

    Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.
    Tactically they should let Corbyn drown himself. If she stays, they own the chaos and Corbyn is in by landslide in October. I hope she stays. And they get obliterated 97 style
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Lol. Made a profit on the election. Almost every call I made was wrong but I backed Labour in Canterbury!

    Labour in Canterbury. Labour to hold (not win) Ynys Mon was a steal. I also backed NOM with Labour and Tory minority governments, based on the gold standard Yougov and Survation polls.

    But probably the biggest winners just dumped large stakes on safe seats at odds-on, with the early ricks on vulnerable seats as the icing on the cake.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    “I believe and I’ve said – and I think I said it last year – that we can turn these polls around.”

    Credit where it's due. Solid prediction from Diane Abbott.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.

    Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.
    Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.
    That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.
    I still don't understand why they didn't.

    That was a real open goal.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320

    Labour can't form a government that's just silly. May needs to form a minority government, hand over either to someone competent or to Boris. DUP won't bring down the government. They just squeezed out every vote they can. Only way from where they are is down.

    Lucian, you know I love you dearly but may I suggest that you and fellow Conservative supporters hold off telling others what is silly for a bit until the memory of this Grade A Clusterfuck fades in the memory a little.

    Boris isn't a runner. The EU would scarcely bother talking to him, and simply wouldn't take him seriously.

    Someone competent? Credible alternatives are thin on the ground, but has anybody asked if Kenneth Clarke is free? He does at least command the respect of the whole house. It need only be until the pain stops hurting a bit and everyone feels they can face another election.

    Hopefully by that time all the Parties will have thought about it a bit and decided who and what they want to put up to those troublesome voters.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.

    Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.
    Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.
    That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.
    Except then Labour would just have promised £700m a week for the NHS. The Conservative party should be the party of wise public spending.

    The Tory Leave campaign opened the gates to socialism and high spending and now we are all going to have to pay the price.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Pauly said:

    Pauly said:

    Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.

    The pansies better swallow their pride for the national interest.
    Are you Nigel Dodds?
    I see myself as more of a Sammy Wilson type figure.
    'Chase me'

    https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/872026522042990594
    Now that IS naughty.
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Cookie said:

    Well, I'm obviously very disappointed with this result. But what does this all mean?

    The problem with democracy is that it isn't an essay question. You just get to put a cross in a box; you dodn't get to specify what sort of conservatism or socialism or liberalism you want. A pity, though it would make counts very long. Before we jerk too many knees, we should recognise that the Conservative Party has achieved the third highest vote total of any party ever, and outpolled Tony Blair in 1997. The country has wholesale rejected conservatism - though if course, it is hard to know what shade of conservatism its conservative voters might prefer. That said, there are clearly many, many voters for whom the status quo offers so little that they are prepared to dabble with Corbynism in the hope of something different. The twitter warriors are a tiny minority of these. I don't believe many Labour voters want to see Britain turned into Venezuela. What they do want is what many Conservatives also want: job security, pay rises, better public services, an answer to tuition fees.
    Our system tends to polarise us into two camps, when the reality is that thre are a wide spectrum of opinions. Perhaps as a result of this election we might have to pay heed to some of the issues we currently aren't adressing. That's no bad thing. That's how democracy should work.
    I can't, can't reconcile myselt to Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. To me, they are far beyond the pale. But most of their voters, most of their members, most of their MPs are not a different tribe; they are decent people who have a different set of priorities to me or a differnet approach to getting to the same broad goal.
    Britain hasn't changed its mind. Britain isn't a single entity dithering between two choices. It is 60-odd million people weighing up hundreds and hundreds of issues and value sets. A relatively small proportion of Britons have decided to express their priorities through the democtratic system a different way. For some of us, the outcome is disappointing, but that doesn't shake my belief in democracy.

    Good points. Corbyn is actually boxed in as a lot of the swing to Labour is not really based on a firm support for his outlook. Much of the affluent Southern swing to Labour would be horrified if the full manifesto was actually implemented. Corbyn voting against immigration restrictions or security measures will not be poular with many who voted Labour this time. The hung parliament will mean the Labour manifesto and Corbyn and McDonell will be examined in detail for the first time for many Labour voters.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Ha, I didn't realise Angus Robertson had lost his seat.

    Well, that's a bright spot, at least.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722
    Cosmic said:

    The SNP had more net losses than the Tories.

    They were lucky not to lose more. The SNP benefited from a mixup about Unionist tactical voting where voters went for the Tories by mistake in seats Labour would have won.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Lol. Made a profit on the election. Almost every call I made was wrong but I backed Labour in Canterbury!

    Labour in Canterbury. Labour to hold (not win) Ynys Mon was a steal. I also backed NOM with Labour and Tory minority governments, based on the gold standard Yougov and Survation polls.

    But probably the biggest winners just dumped large stakes on safe seats at odds-on, with the early ricks on vulnerable seats as the icing on the cake.
    Think I'm about £100 up... Would have been closer to £1000 if bloody Zac hadn't ruined it in Richmond Park!

    Many thanks to Pulpstar (?) for his Wales Labour tips.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If May resigns as PM then Corbyn is PM until his QS is voted down.
    Her option is to resign as leader but stay as PM if she has the confidence of the house.

    Not true whoever is recommended as having confidence of the house is leader, ie acting Conservative Party leader. Besides she could announce her intention to resign and serve until after the leadership election like Cameron did.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.

    Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.
    Indeed, but this is the hand we've been dealt. We can't go back to the public and assume that we'll win. Look at what happened this time.
    A numerically viable alternative is doing a deal with Sturgeon. Give her a seat in the Brexit negotiations and agree to the referendum demand between the deal and independence.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Punter, I agree Boris is unfit, but Ken Clarke? An arch EU-phile just as we're about to negotiate leaving the EU?

    It's not going to happen.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited June 2017
    Mr Fire,

    Haven't Labour said that they accept the EU referendum result?

    If they do get into government, I can see them concocting a form of words which means they'll present a deal which means basically no change with the EU and leaving in name only. The problem they'll have is explaining this.

    Ah, now I understand, they are politicians after all. Saying mutually incompatible things is second nature.
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    BoothmanBoothman Posts: 13
    Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.

    Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    FF43 said:

    Theresa May or her successor can get a Brexit deal through, but it needs the support of Labour to see off ​any potential rebellion on Tory benches. The DUP won't provide the numbers. The Conservative leadership needs to have serious talks with Keir Starmer.

    How can any sort of sensible Brexit deal now be negotiated?

    A lot of the Labour vote yesterday probably thought they were voting against Brexit and will be horrified if they see it keep going.



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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.

    Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.
    Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.
    That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.
    Except then Labour would just have promised £700m a week for the NHS. The Conservative party should be the party of wise public spending.

    The Tory Leave campaign opened the gates to socialism and high spending and now we are all going to have to pay the price.
    Osborne promised high spending and no tax rises and borrowed hundreds of billions more than he predicted. None of his vanity projects were ever left short of money.

    2015 was when the everlasting magic money tree was promised.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2017
    Red Kensington.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    FF43 said:

    Cosmic said:

    The SNP had more net losses than the Tories.

    They were lucky not to lose more. The SNP benefited from a mixup about Unionist tactical voting where voters went for the Tories by mistake in seats Labour would have won.
    Paisley and Ren South. I banged the desk because I thought Lab had won but the TV sound was so bad I got it all wrong. Looked a right tit!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Well played Scotland - I look forward to collecting from malc.

    Also some good feedback on the Con campaign - clear it was a disaster and lessons to be learned. May should stay on for a bit but not too long.

    And thanks Mark Senior for the Cambridge tip - helped reduce other losses.

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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Boothman said:

    Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.

    Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?

    No, there was also a Labour plan to write off the student debt of those currently on courses and maybe even those who had finished.
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    oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    JonathanD said:

    A lot of the Labour vote yesterday probably thought they were voting against Brexit and will be horrified if they see it keep going.

    A lot also thought they were voting for better funded public services and cheaper homes, safe in the knowledge that the Brexit decision was made a year ago and Labour had accepted it...

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Boothman,

    "Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."

    It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Faisal: Some liberal minded Tories horrified at thought of deals with DUP.

    Exactly. If the Tories go with a DUP C&S then all their "interesting" policies and beliefs will be paraded by the opposition parties and hang them round the neck of the Tories. An understanding with the DUP comes with a price tag in many senses.
    Corbo's "interesting policies" didn't harm him.

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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
    Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,128

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    It may be that YouGov has really cracked the problem of projecting the results of general elections, with this Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification business. It sounds like a sensible thing to do, and despite all the scepticism it has worked well. The largest error in the projected number of seats for the main parties was an underestimate of 14 for the Conservatives.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091

    Red Kensington.

    LOL

    Charles ** and the posh folk will have to move to a proper Conservative constituency.

    Such as Morley or Mansfield or Middlesbrough South.

    ** I think I'm right that Charles lives in Kensington constituency.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Faisal: Under Corbyn, Labour has highest share of vote since Labour in 1997.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
    Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?
    Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit poll
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    Thanks to @Pulpstar for the Lab Ynys Mon tip. One of the few winners I had. Overall down about half.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    CD13 said:

    Mr Boothman,

    "Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."

    It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.

    OK but who pays for the bribe? it has to be either the young, or the old, or the middle.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    CD13 said:

    Mr Boothman,

    "Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."

    It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.

    Indeed.

    Couple that with the threat to inheritances from dementia.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Davies pushed hardest for an election and isn't popular with his cabinet colleagues. Big takeaway from this result is that the Conservative tack to UKIP has failed tactically. I am as surprised as anyone by that. Too many Kippers went Labour. UKIP are dead as a party, so there's no point pandering to them anymore. The centre ground is where the Tories need to be.

    Roll on Brexit for the 60%. It's where we should have been from the beginning, not trying to get hard Brexit through on the back of 20% of voters and Tory voters who had nowhere else to go.
    Your dry as dust libertarianism is dead.
    That's always been dead, I've never believed otherwise. I was on here (and telling irl Tories) saying that the government should have run on meeting the Labour Leave campaign pledges like £350m per week for the NHS.
    Except then Labour would just have promised £700m a week for the NHS. The Conservative party should be the party of wise public spending.

    The Tory Leave campaign opened the gates to socialism and high spending and now we are all going to have to pay the price.
    I would have made that the flagship policy of an otherwise very boring manifesto. Every time public spending came up, "we're gong to invest the £350m per week promised in the NHS" every time the economy came up, "our manifesto is fully costed so we can afford to invest the £350m per week into the NHS".

    It was the winning strategy, that with "Brexit means Brexit" repeated over and over again would have got us a fairly healthy majority. Relating everything back to protecting the NHS and ensuring that our figures add up so we can continue to invest in it was the basis of the 2010 victory which saw us gain 90 seats.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Mr. Punter, I agree Boris is unfit, but Ken Clarke? An arch EU-phile just as we're about to negotiate leaving the EU?

    It's not going to happen.

    Amber Rudd being talked up IMO... She barely clung on and is very associated with the TM project.

    I'm really hoping Phil Hammond stands as the heavyweight candidate. Boris surely will run.

    I've also had a nibble on Rory Stewart. Probably too early for him - but I think he is impressive.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    edited June 2017

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Indeed but in a way not.

    The Conservatives got their best ever vote in Wakefield with an 11% increase.

    DH and his team did their stuff.

    And they did even better in adjacent Morley constituency.

    The Conservative failing was in other places.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    They are asking how the Tories can do a deal with a Party which believes the world is less than 10,000 years old? The DUP aren't Orthodox Jews are they?

    Congrats on your relly's majority, & your E.Lothian tip, I completely misread the SLab surge. We are all Corbynites now.
    Thank you. An extraordinary result. He was the one who gave me the East Lothian tip. As you say we're all corbynites now. The baddies have lost which is more important than worrying about who has won
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    I doubt he would be happy with the award.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Looks like the DUP with 292,000 votes is trying to dictate Theresa May's "Strong And Stable" negotiations with the EU.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Yes. Either that, or RochdalePioneers' post the other day about why people are voting for Corbyn rather than May's uninspiring campaign, which also proved remarkably prescient. I don't think RP has ever written a thread-leading post for PB, but maybe he should be invited to.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    :+1:
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Staying up is proving to be easier said then done. May have a nap soon.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Perhaps but in a way not.

    The Conservatives got their best ever vote in Wakefield with an 11% increase.

    DH and his team did their stuff.

    And they did even better in adjacent Morley constituency.

    The Conservative failing was in other places.
    Well said. Some sterling performances in what must have been difficult circumstances on the ground in the last couple of weeks.

    Kudos to the team in Middlesbrough South too, considering what happened in Stockton South.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    CD13 said:

    Mr Boothman,

    "Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe ..."

    It's a bribe but not just to the young. Those parents (and grandparents) with teenagers in the family will be mightily relieved. Many would have been expecting to have to help support them.

    OK but who pays for the bribe? it has to be either the young, or the old, or the middle.
    Or the extremely young/those not yet born.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    Right I have to do some work and I'm already feeling exhausted.

    Have fun, there's plenty to talk about but be nice to each other.
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    JFNJFN Posts: 13
    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
    Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?
    Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit poll
    well I never knew that. where was all this information?
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
    Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?
    Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit poll
    well I never knew that. where was all this information?
    and thanks. sorry bit tired.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited June 2017
    Gold Stars are due this morning to TSE who has been calling Mrs May all sorts of unpleasant names for months now, David Herdson for his shocking but oh so perceptive post on Tuesday evening, YouGov and Survation for sticking to their guns, although YouGov's resolve weakened at the 11th hour and, of course not forgetting OGH for spotting the huge impact of the hugely increased youth vote and for pointing out the wisdom of his spread bet involving a sale of Tory Seats when they were still at heady heights.
    Finally some credit goes to an unnamed poster from S.W. London, modesty forbids, who came up with some smashing bets, resulting in him personally clearing a profit running well into four figures.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    Cosmic said:

    The SNP had more net losses than the Tories.

    They were lucky not to lose more. The SNP benefited from a mixup about Unionist tactical voting where voters went for the Tories by mistake in seats Labour would have won.
    That would be Kezia recommending Lab voters vote Con to keep the SNP out.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    Any photoshops of Arlene with Tessy in her pocket yet?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
    Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?
    Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit poll
    well I never knew that. where was all this information?
    I picked it up from the BBC coverage showing expected seats etc
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    If there's another election soon, then perhaps it be possible for all manifestos to reviewed independently by the Office of Budget Responsibility?

    I can't help thinking McDonnell's budget was written by someone who thought he wouldn't be implementing it. And as for arrogance of the Tories not even bothering to cost their's...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So, do the DUP have loyalist paramilitary links?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    JFN said:

    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.

    Some of us who supported Corbyn had similar bets!
    But overall.im up so very pleased both financially and politically.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2017
    My own anecdote:

    Went to vote in Brentford and Isleworth, not that busy at the polling station.

    Looked at my card (just three candidates) and picked "conservative". I've voted Tory in the last 4 elections now, and this was the one - despite Corbyn - in which I felt the least enthusiastic about doing so.

    What is the Conservative Party promising to deliver? No strong policies came to mind. At all. I remember them going on and on and on about the opposition, but nothing AT ALL about what they would do for the prosperity of the nation, and to the future benefit of my young children.

    For their faults - and they are legion - at least the Labour Party was putting something up there that offered hope and improvement. I didn't believe it was achievable, but the sense remained that there was willing.

    May has fucked this up from start to finish. She has no-one else to blame but herself. A charisma-less void outmaneuvered by crypto-communists and appeasers of terror.

    It is a very depressing day.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Re the Exit Poll.

    They got quite a few things wrong - but their errors cancelled out.

    If all their errors had been the same way we would now either have a Con Maj or PM Corbyn.

    Hardly surprising there were errors given the number of seats decide by less than 1000 votes. But on average the poll was spot on
    Didn't it expect the Conservatives to make gain in North Wales ?
    It had them gaining all 4 NE Wales seats and holding gower and Cardiff North
    Did the exit poll drill down to individual seat level?
    Yes. It had predictions across all seats based on the exit poll
    well I never knew that. where was all this information?
    I picked it up from the BBC coverage showing expected seats etc
    gotcha thanks. I had sky on mainly.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    One of the extraordinary moments. The Messiah!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Some of this talk by Labour bods is tripe - the Labour party won 261 seats. That is no mandate to govern.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Yes. Either that, or RochdalePioneers' post the other day about why people are voting for Corbyn rather than May's uninspiring campaign, which also proved remarkably prescient. I don't think RP has ever written a thread-leading post for PB, but maybe he should be invited to.
    I'd agree that he's one of the most valuable posters, not least because he represents a very under-represented constituency on PB: astute Labour activist.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Immigration - the dog that didn't bark?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. rkrkrk, Hammond's stock fell a lot after his stand-up routine at the Budget. He might get it, and I'd prefer him to Boris, but not enthusiastic.

    Osborne really is a muppet. He'd be PM by lunchtime if he hadn't decided he wanted six jobs rather than five (I wonder if he regrets his vendetta agenda as a cause of the dire result, or feels vindicated by May's meltdown).
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
    ALastair - this was about your ideal outcome wasn't it? Are you still feeling less despondent about this outcome than you would be any of the others?
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Who is the shrew on Sky News?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JFN said:

    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.

    Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

    And hedge ;)

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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    I had a nightmare last night, woke up this morning to find it was real.

    At least Corbyn shouldn't get the keys to number 10 but still.........
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    JFN said:

    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.

    Scottish Tory, Tory SW and London Labour bets saved me from misjudging the overall picture !
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320

    I've just heard John McDonnell on the BBC, basically saying Labour can form a minority government without making any formal deals with other parties, an option he firmly ruled out.

    He said they'd write a Queen's speech enacting the Labour manifesto, which he thought would get majority support in the Commons. He asked who'd dare vote against abolishing tuition fees.

    If Labour do try that approach, it will be a fiasco, and another election will look likely. The question then will be who voters blame for the mess.

    Who will the voters blame for the mess?

    I think the voters have a pretty good idea who to blame for the current mess, Robert, don't you? And if you don't you'll get a pretty good idea who when they go to the polls again, which may in fact be fairly soon.
    Ask them today, and the voters would probably blame the Tories, but in aix months?

    If we have six months of Labour politicians talking about their grand ideas on TV, and complaining that none of the other parties will vote for them while showing absolutely no willingness to compromise the public mood might well change.
    You are playing Party Politics. The situation is serious. Six months? We've got to get through the next six days first and nobody has a clue where we go from here, least of all the hapless bunch that got us into this f*cking mess.

    Let's see who stands up tall, and talks some sense, and we'll leave the speculation about 'the public mood' until the dust has settled a bit.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Alistair said:

    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.

    The Tories have a majority in England and Wales.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Alistair said:

    Have we talked about EVEL yet? Tories will have nothing close to a majority for English legislation. 12 Tory MPs and the 10 DUP are locked out.

    So are the other 44 Scottish MPs. Goes both ways. Clear Con majority for English Laws
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2017
    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Alistair said:

    So, do the DUP have loyalist paramilitary links?

    Apparently they don't matter, all in the past don't you know
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rkrkrk said:

    Mr. Punter, I agree Boris is unfit, but Ken Clarke? An arch EU-phile just as we're about to negotiate leaving the EU?

    It's not going to happen.

    Amber Rudd being talked up IMO... She barely clung on and is very associated with the TM project.

    I'm really hoping Phil Hammond stands as the heavyweight candidate. Boris surely will run.

    I've also had a nibble on Rory Stewart. Probably too early for him - but I think he is impressive.
    Hammond would be a disaster at the ballot box - a greyer duller May.

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    PatrickPatrick Posts: 225
    Well that was a shocker.

    For me the abiding message of the election is that voters want more jam. The JAMs want more jam. People are tired of just coping and want some jam sprayed around. The 'strong and stable' came across as dull and tightfisted. No jam. The Tories need a new leader. An engaging and likeable one. A human. And one who can steer between pissing our national finances up a wall and investing enough in public services to keep the mob happy enough. This may not be politically possible and we face the same deep national conundrum as before - our appetite for welfarism exceeds our appetite for paying for it.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Boothman said:

    Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.

    Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?

    Incorrect. The labour plan was to back date the legislation so even those currently in Uni would have had their fees written off. In fact they promised to write off fees from some people who have already graduated. It was self interest, which is fair enough.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Holy shit. I've just seen Zac's result. Squeakier than a barrel full of mice.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Mr. rkrkrk, Hammond's stock fell a lot after his stand-up routine at the Budget. He might get it, and I'd prefer him to Boris, but not enthusiastic.

    Osborne really is a muppet. He'd be PM by lunchtime if he hadn't decided he wanted six jobs rather than five (I wonder if he regrets his vendetta agenda as a cause of the dire result, or feels vindicated by May's meltdown).

    The budget is old news now I hope? And perhaps can be blamed on TM?

    Osborne looked vindicated on TV. He was also I have to say very good at explaining results and pulling out key pieces of information. Put quite a few journalists to shame and didn't pull his ounches about the impact of the result.
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    .....so it wasnt just a nightmare then.....

    Brexit under real threat in my view.

    "Why, why, why............Theresa,..........."
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    TGOHF said:

    JFN said:

    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.

    Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

    And hedge ;)

    Lottery ticket guy myself. You write off the $1 before you buy it and any sort of win is a bonus.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Roger said:

    Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

    Ken Clarke says otherwise.
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    wills66wills66 Posts: 103

    Lol. Made a profit on the election. Almost every call I made was wrong but I backed Labour in Canterbury!

    I piled into NOC on the markets about 5 minutes before the exit poll came about, on a hunch based on tweets and my own nervousness. That plus Jonny Mercer in Plymouth means I'm up enough for a one-way premium economy flight to Canada ;-)

    Not that they'd ever let me in permanently, too old and skills in the wrong place.

    WillS.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Didn't he recant afterwards ?
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,952
    Pulpstar said:

    JFN said:

    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.

    Scottish Tory, Tory SW and London Labour bets saved me from misjudging the overall picture !
    Thanks to those who tipped Labour to take Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam and, very late in the day, Redding East.

    Those constituency bets saved me from a night of very heavy losses.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,320
    TGOHF said:

    JFN said:

    I'm just laughing in my morning tea at all the PB Tories who were predicting 100+ majorities yesterday. I hoped you placed enough bets both ways to get some money back.

    Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

    And hedge ;)

    I am seriously wondered about some of my PB friends. Anybody heard from Woody 662? He was convinced it would be 100+, and he doesn't bet in pennies.

    Hope he and others are all ok.
This discussion has been closed.