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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new politics where the young ones actually turn

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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Chameleon said:

    EDW20000 said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Young people cant buy and renting is killing them, all roads leave to Right to Buy, the most stupid policy ever.

    But having a council house is not the same as owning a property? The youth want property, not council houses.
    They do not want insecure, expensive private lets.
    Exactly, 6 months and then stuff in bin bags and looking for new flat AGAIN. Boomers screwed the millennials by buying all the housing.
    So build more houses. Better still, convert older buildings into starter apartments - two bedrooms with combined kitchen/diner - and sell them for £50-100K.
    But the baby boomers object to them, and hence very few get built. There seem to be very few issues that the youth have that are not being caused by the baby-boomers.
    I feel really sorry for the youth of today. I think the Boomers have been the most privileged generation in the history of the UK.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The spotlight of the British public is going to shine brightly on the DUP like the police headlights on the garden of Fred and Rose West.
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Total votes

    Labour 1997 (Blair landslide)
    13,518,167

    Conservatives 2017 (May disaster)
    13,650,900 (with 1 to come)

    LD collapse since 1997 explains it of course, but looking at the Tory performance in isolation it's decent.

    Lab + Con share has never increased by anything like as much in one election - huge change.

    #statto
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Rich, there's no accounting for taste :p

    F1: just a reminder I backed (and tipped) No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes). Been one or more at 2 of the 7 most recent races, and the weather forecast is dry.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,317

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Brom said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?

    Me neither, but they need to really start thinking about how to do
    Lots of sweeties?

    I think that student debt is too high. The fees being raised from £3k to £9k (and now even higher) was a terrible mistake and meant that people started off working life going from £10k debt (manageable) to £40k debt (ridiculous). And then they have to try and buy an overpriced house.

    Changing fees back to £3k (applied retrospectively) and even making it free for key subjects I think needs to be looked at.

    Corbyn could never actually deliver on this because of the rest of his policies, but the Tories could.

    Even with fees at 3k, the debt typically is 25k because of maintenance loans.
    Labour needs to get tactically sharp and start putting some carefully considered proposals and amendments in Parliament. If they choose their ground carefully it will be very difficult for May to hold her side together.
    This is where Corbyn becomes an asset for the Tories. For two years they bungled their way through Parliament, but clearly they know how to campaign and sell a message/idea.
    The Tories need to get a few Labour moderates on board, maybe involve Starmer in Brexit as a national interest. The division in Labour is still huge, it's just the Blairites are going to keep quiet about it until Corbyn steers them further to the left.
    I think we may see a "Brexit negotiating committee" to which Starmer and even Cable will be invited to join. They'd be absolute idiots to accept, but I don't see how they could turn it down.
    LOL! Why on Earth should Starmer and Cable get involved with this shower of sh*te?
    Quite. Labour should steer well clear. The government is dead.

    CON + DUP = 328 = LOL

    As AveIt might say.
    Coalition of Chaos = 322 = LOL!!!!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Mortimer said:

    The future, short of a messiah leader, is minority governments or opposition.
    No, just don't piss off the base with shit policies so they all stay home. It was May and her shit policies that lost it last night. There is nothing else to it, she was a rubbish PM pushing rubbish policies and the British public just gave that verdict. Thankfully we didn't completely shit the bed and have enough seats to get a minority government, but there is a lot of hard work ahead to undo the damage May has inflicted on our party with her home thieving policies, stupid energy price caps and other anti-business regulation. We are the party of lower taxes, home ownership, more jobs and supporting businesses of all sizes. May repudiated too many of our core ideas to try and get Lab -> UKIP voters, she didn't get them and loads of our own base stayed home or, unfortunately, voted Labour to avoid the home theft policy.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Silver-linings for the Tories (sort of):

    UKIP smashed to smitherooons
    Massive swathes of Scotland turn blue
    Labour's allies in NI the SDLP wiped out
    Prospect of NI MPs joining the government, making it, along with the new Scots Tories, a truly UK administration.

    Sickening bigotry directed at our fine Ulster folk on PB this morning from the self-proclaimed defenders of minorities.
    Really?

    Nothing wrong with a bit of Orangism in my book.
    The DUP see ISIS as being too soft on the gays.
    I am no DUP supporter, but that is a vile comment.
    In the context of Great Britain, that is a reasonable comment.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,307
    edited June 2017
    Theresa needs to resign. Her successor will then have to call a 'who governs Britain?' election in the autumn. There's no viable alternative.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Brom said:

    Roger said:

    THIS IS THE END' Tory MPs’ fury at Theresa May’s aides Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill over disastrous election 2017 campaign

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3760850/tory-mps-fury-at-theresa-mays-aides-nick-timothy-and-fiona-hill-over-disastrous-election-2017-campaign/

    I would put far more blame on Lynton Crosby. As he always does he treats the electorate like simpletons who can only absorb one simple message oft repeated. That is both old fashioned and inappropriate for a better educated and younger audience.
    Lynton Crosby only joined the campaign in April and by all accounts wielded far less power than these two. Timothy, Hill and May should take the blame here.
    Blimey, another unsuccessful campagns that it turns out Corsby wasn't involved in. Amazing all these unsuccesful campaigns that accidentally think Crosby is involved but isn't.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    nunu said:

    LD vote all over the place

    So they won Eastbourne with 46.9%, but just down the road the LD vote in Hastings was just 3.4%. Inexplicable

    Have those tactical voting websites worked then? LD and Lab young voters savvy enogh to know hoe to stop the tories?

    Gina Miller is very smart.
    Totally different situations. Lloyd is the former local MP for Eastbourne, says he won't stop Brexit, winner with the old people etc. Eastbourne Council strong lib dem run authority.

    Lib dems are nowhere in Hastings.

    Goes down to how strong the local party is, as is always the case with lib dems.

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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    nielh said:

    Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.

    The thread from yesterday morning is a true PB keeper.

    The millennials are lazy/feckless/addicted to Playstation/scared of rain.

    Chortle.
    They turned out, but I doubt it was much more than last year, though it seems they split very decisively in his favour. Corbyn has clearly got a hold on the squeezed middle. It certainly wasn't the youth who won places like Crewe and Nantwich.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    EDW20000 said:

    BigRich said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Young people cant buy and renting is killing them, all roads leave to Right to Buy, the most stupid policy ever.

    I don't understand how you get to that conclusion, If a council house is sold then it is one less rented property and one more bought property.

    Governments have done lots of stupid things that have paused up the price of housing, both rents and sale prices, above what they should/would be if left to the free market, but selling council houses is not one of them.

    My friend owns over 100 ex-LA flats, the company is registered in the BVI via Panama etc. It pays no tax and the flats are used by AirBnB for £100 per night. Why should tenants be able to buy at a discount?
    Your friend sounds like a very astute business person who has sported a gap in the market.

    People should be able to buy the house they live in from the government, because as you original post pointed out, people what to be able to live in property that they own.

    Things government should do or stop doing to help the housing situation:

    1) make it easier to get planing permition to build more houses unless you equalize supply and demand there will be a shortage and prides go up.
    2) sell of government own land that could be built on.
    3) scrap the help to buy sceam that simply drives up prieses.
    4) Make it easy to change the use of buildings e.g. Offices in to houses.
    5) get rid of the cap on council tax so that more expensive (over £340K) houses are taxed at the same proportion as cheaper houses.
    6) alternative to point 5, introduce a Land Value Tax.
    7) get rid of stamp duty so that it is essayer for people to more out of houses that are to big for them.
    8) change housing benefit so it is not tide to renting a property, or better still go for a universal welfare payment.
    9) get rid of the discount when buying a council house, and also get rid of the limits on who can buy there house, i.e. the need to live there for 5 years and own for 5 years after selling it.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    BBC definitely said earlier that Lab was ahead in Kensington.

    By 35 votes I think.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    Mr. Rich, Davis.

    Edited extra bit: sorry, did you mean actual Conservatives, or the PB Tories [which is almost everyone]?

    I wouldn't have a vote in such a leadership contest.

    Mr Dancer I care about your opinion, weather you can vote or not!

    As this is unscientific I just interested in peoples opinion rather than anything else.

    (especially as you have gone for Davis)
    I'm not a Tory, but Davis makes more sense as a replacement for May than any of the alternatives I can think of.
    Boris is a risible idea - and as we saw from the Gove episode, could probably be scared off if push comes to shove.
    Davies, Boris, Hammond, none of them are near the right answer. Tip: go for someone without grey hair.
    Who ?
    Davis isn't ideal, but I'm struggling to come up with a realistic alternative for the current situation.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Typo said:

    Chameleon said:

    EDW20000 said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Young people cant buy and renting is killing them, all roads leave to Right to Buy, the most stupid policy ever.

    But having a council house is not the same as owning a property? The youth want property, not council houses.
    They do not want insecure, expensive private lets.
    Exactly, 6 months and then stuff in bin bags and looking for new flat AGAIN. Boomers screwed the millennials by buying all the housing.
    So build more houses. Better still, convert older buildings into starter apartments - two bedrooms with combined kitchen/diner - and sell them for £50-100K.
    But the baby boomers object to them, and hence very few get built. There seem to be very few issues that the youth have that are not being caused by the baby-boomers.
    Exactly. Planning itself is an utter nightmare.
    Planning and immigration are the two big problems. We can't have the population rising so quickly without building more houses, because all that does is put prices up!
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Northern Irish politics used to be "over there". Now it is here, frightening.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited June 2017
    Brom said:

    nielh said:

    Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.

    The thread from yesterday morning is a true PB keeper.

    The millennials are lazy/feckless/addicted to Playstation/scared of rain.

    Chortle.
    They turned out, but I doubt it was much more than last year, though it seems they split very decisively in his favour. Corbyn has clearly got a hold on the squeezed middle. It certainly wasn't the youth who won places like Crewe and Nantwich.
    As I said on the last thread, my social circle is basically the best possible demographics for Con among the young. More voted Lab than Con in it...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Labour are ahead by 38 votes after third recount in Kensington, according to Twitter.

    Everyone has apparently gone home because the counters are exhausted.

    A fourth recount tomorrow morning.

    Tomorrow, Saturday?

    Has no-one told them they're the only seat left?
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Sandpit said:

    That map is the highlight of an otherwise crap night.
    Yep, the only one of the four nations where one party won a majority of seats.
    DUP = 10/18 ?
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    Mr. Rich, Davis.

    Edited extra bit: sorry, did you mean actual Conservatives, or the PB Tories [which is almost everyone]?

    I wouldn't have a vote in such a leadership contest.

    Mr Dancer I care about your opinion, weather you can vote or not!

    As this is unscientific I just interested in peoples opinion rather than anything else.

    (especially as you have gone for Davis)
    I'm not a Tory, but Davis makes more sense as a replacement for May than any of the alternatives I can think of.
    Boris is a risible idea - and as we saw from the Gove episode, could probably be scared off if push comes to shove.
    Davies, Boris, Hammond, none of them are near the right answer. Tip: go for someone without grey hair.
    Who ?
    Davis isn't ideal, but I'm struggling to come up with a realistic alternative for the current situation.
    Greg Clark potentially, a nice liberal, centrist Tory that has the potential to unify.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    Roger said:

    THIS IS THE END' Tory MPs’ fury at Theresa May’s aides Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill over disastrous election 2017 campaign

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3760850/tory-mps-fury-at-theresa-mays-aides-nick-timothy-and-fiona-hill-over-disastrous-election-2017-campaign/

    I would put far more blame on Lynton Crosby. As he always does he treats the electorate like simpletons who can only absorb one simple message oft repeated. That is both old fashioned and inappropriate for a better educated and younger audience.
    Lynton Crosby only joined the campaign in April and by all accounts wielded far less power than these two. Timothy, Hill and May should take the blame here.
    Blimey, another unsuccessful campagns that it turns out Corsby wasn't involved in. Amazing all these unsuccesful campaigns that accidentally think Crosby is involved but isn't.
    May is a 'control freek', who was trying to run the campaign her self, as she does with everything, it was only when it was looking realy bad that Corsby was given leverage, and at least he seems to have stopped the slide in the last week
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Silver-linings for the Tories (sort of):

    UKIP smashed to smitherooons
    Massive swathes of Scotland turn blue
    Labour's allies in NI the SDLP wiped out
    Prospect of NI MPs joining the government, making it, along with the new Scots Tories, a truly UK administration.

    Sickening bigotry directed at our fine Ulster folk on PB this morning from the self-proclaimed defenders of minorities.
    Really?

    Nothing wrong with a bit of Orangism in my book.
    The DUP see ISIS as being too soft on the gays.
    I am no DUP supporter, but that is a vile comment.
    In the context of Great Britain, that is a reasonable comment.
    It's a wildly inaccurate comment.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Theresa needs to resign. Her successor will then have to call a 'who governs Britain?' election in the autumn. There's no viable alternative.

    Never ends well. The answer is invariably "you don't mate".
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,210

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
    Ahem!

    I posted this at 3:31 last Monday:-

    "But I also don't think this particular debate will much help the Tories. Whether more police would help or not is moot. But it does feed into an impression that sometimes the Tories know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Good security does not come cheap. If the aid budget can be protected how much more should this apply to the security/police budget?

    If I - as an "Anyone But Corbyn" voter - feels like this, can we really be sure that the Tories will win?

    I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".

    If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer. :)"

    I did not get the result right but I was closer than pretty much everyone here with their big Tory majorities, including even some Labour supporters.

    Kudos to Mr Herdson and Rochdale Pioneers for their good posts.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited June 2017

    There are some amazing Lab results out there in seats they were nowhere in before, e.g.

    Truro and Falmouth 37.7% +22.5!

    The unwind of the tactical votes for LibDems. Second referendum toxic down here in the SW.

    Tbh, somewhat surprised the Cons held on to Camborne and Redruth. George Eustice must have run a good campaign. Fantastic result for Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moorview as well - he hoovered up the great bulk of the departing Kipper vote. (Compare to say North Devon, where the blues picked up only a quarter of it.)

    Huge increase in Ben Bradshaw's personal vote in Exeter.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Nigelb said:

    Theresa needs to resign. Her successor will then have to call a 'who governs Britain?' election in the autumn. There's no viable alternative.

    Never ends well. The answer is invariably "you don't mate".
    They've already had that election yesterday, we need a strong majority government from someone.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Theresa needs to resign. Her successor will then have to call a 'who governs Britain?' election in the autumn. There's no viable alternative.

    We had a Conservative government call a "who governs Britain" election in February 1974. The electorate said not you Ted Heath.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700
    Popular Vote:

    Conservative
    1992: 14,093,007
    1997: 9,600,943
    2001: 8,357,615
    2005: 8,784,915
    2010: 10,703,754
    2015: 11,334,576
    2017: 13,650,900

    Labour
    1992: 11,560,484
    1997: 13,518,167
    2001: 10,724,953
    2005: 9,552,436
    2010: 8,606,527
    2015: 9,347,304
    2017: 12,858,652

    So, May put on more votes than the posh boys and had the highest number of votes since Major's record in 1992 (and also beat Blair's tally). Corbyn however put on more votes than any Labour leader since Attlee.....
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    BigRich said:

    EDW20000 said:

    BigRich said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Young people cant buy and renting is killing them, all roads leave to Right to Buy, the most stupid policy ever.

    I don't understand how you get to that conclusion, If a council house is sold then it is one less rented property and one more bought property.

    Governments have done lots of stupid things that have paused up the price of housing, both rents and sale prices, above what they should/would be if left to the free market, but selling council houses is not one of them.

    My friend owns over 100 ex-LA flats, the company is registered in the BVI via Panama etc. It pays no tax and the flats are used by AirBnB for £100 per night. Why should tenants be able to buy at a discount?
    Your friend sounds like a very astute business person who has sported a gap in the market.

    People should be able to buy the house they live in from the government, because as you original post pointed out, people what to be able to live in property that they own.

    Things government should do or stop doing to help the housing situation:

    1) make it easier to get planing permition to build more houses unless you equalize supply and demand there will be a shortage and prides go up.
    2) sell of government own land that could be built on.
    3) scrap the help to buy sceam that simply drives up prieses.
    4) Make it easy to change the use of buildings e.g. Offices in to houses.
    5) get rid of the cap on council tax so that more expensive (over £340K) houses are taxed at the same proportion as cheaper houses.
    6) alternative to point 5, introduce a Land Value Tax.
    7) get rid of stamp duty so that it is essayer for people to more out of houses that are to big for them.
    8) change housing benefit so it is not tide to renting a property, or better still go for a universal welfare payment.
    9) get rid of the discount when buying a council house, and also get rid of the limits on who can buy there house, i.e. the need to live there for 5 years and own for 5 years after selling it.
    The government should build and refurbish housing stock in the north, then give them away. We need to encourage entrepreneurs and business activity in some of the deprived regions; we don't need yet more posh flats in London and the south-east which is already overheated.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    Mr. Rich, Davis.

    Edited extra bit: sorry, did you mean actual Conservatives, or the PB Tories [which is almost everyone]?

    I wouldn't have a vote in such a leadership contest.

    Mr Dancer I care about your opinion, weather you can vote or not!

    As this is unscientific I just interested in peoples opinion rather than anything else.

    (especially as you have gone for Davis)
    I'm not a Tory, but Davis makes more sense as a replacement for May than any of the alternatives I can think of.
    Boris is a risible idea - and as we saw from the Gove episode, could probably be scared off if push comes to shove.
    Davies, Boris, Hammond, none of them are near the right answer. Tip: go for someone without grey hair.
    Who ?
    Davis isn't ideal, but I'm struggling to come up with a realistic alternative for the current situation.
    Greg Clark potentially, a nice liberal, centrist Tory that has the potential to unify.
    Decent guy, but have enough people even heard of him ?
    And for those that have, there's the homeopathy nonsense.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    The future, short of a messiah leader, is minority governments or opposition.
    No, just don't piss off the base with shit policies so they all stay home. It was May and her shit policies that lost it last night. There is nothing else to it, she was a rubbish PM pushing rubbish policies and the British public just gave that verdict. Thankfully we didn't completely shit the bed and have enough seats to get a minority government, but there is a lot of hard work ahead to undo the damage May has inflicted on our party with her home thieving policies, stupid energy price caps and other anti-business regulation. We are the party of lower taxes, home ownership, more jobs and supporting businesses of all sizes. May repudiated too many of our core ideas to try and get Lab -> UKIP voters, she didn't get them and loads of our own base stayed home or, unfortunately, voted Labour to avoid the home theft policy.
    You might be right. But I fear that position doesn't beat 40%; which Labour have shown they can get now...
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    Mr. Rich, Davis.

    Edited extra bit: sorry, did you mean actual Conservatives, or the PB Tories [which is almost everyone]?

    I wouldn't have a vote in such a leadership contest.

    Mr Dancer I care about your opinion, weather you can vote or not!

    As this is unscientific I just interested in peoples opinion rather than anything else.

    (especially as you have gone for Davis)
    I'm not a Tory, but Davis makes more sense as a replacement for May than any of the alternatives I can think of.
    Boris is a risible idea - and as we saw from the Gove episode, could probably be scared off if push comes to shove.
    Davies, Boris, Hammond, none of them are near the right answer. Tip: go for someone without grey hair.
    Who ?
    Davis isn't ideal, but I'm struggling to come up with a realistic alternative for the current situation.
    Greg Clark potentially, a nice liberal, centrist Tory that has the potential to unify.
    Decent guy, but have enough people even heard of him ?
    And for those that have, there's the homeopathy nonsense.
    Not being previously heard of will I suspect be a substantial positive in the coming election.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700

    Theresa needs to resign. Her successor will then have to call a 'who governs Britain?' election in the autumn. There's no viable alternative.

    Tried it before. Didn't end well for the chap who asked the question (Heath, 1974)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    edited June 2017
    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Theresa needs to resign. Her successor will then have to call a 'who governs Britain?' election in the autumn. There's no viable alternative.

    Never ends well. The answer is invariably "you don't mate".
    They've already had that election yesterday, we need a strong majority government from someone.
    We need a cure for cancer and workable fusion power, but we're not getting them any time soon.
    In the meantime, we need a government.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Sean_F said:

    Silver-linings for the Tories (sort of):

    UKIP smashed to smitherooons
    Massive swathes of Scotland turn blue
    Labour's allies in NI the SDLP wiped out
    Prospect of NI MPs joining the government, making it, along with the new Scots Tories, a truly UK administration.

    Sickening bigotry directed at our fine Ulster folk on PB this morning from the self-proclaimed defenders of minorities.
    Really?

    Nothing wrong with a bit of Orangism in my book.
    The DUP see ISIS as being too soft on the gays.
    I am no DUP supporter, but that is a vile comment.
    In the context of Great Britain, that is a reasonable comment.
    It's a wildly inaccurate comment.
    The only part of the British Isles that bans gay marriage. Standards are different elsewhere in the British Isles. They have banned it because of a "petition of concern". Perhaps the Northern Irish people disagree, but those people are the face of Northern Ireland.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Haha. Jon Trickett trying to spin a Labour government out of thin air.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    And the winner is ....... YOUGOV
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chameleon said:

    Nigelb said:

    BigRich said:

    Mr. Rich, Davis.

    Edited extra bit: sorry, did you mean actual Conservatives, or the PB Tories [which is almost everyone]?

    I wouldn't have a vote in such a leadership contest.

    Mr Dancer I care about your opinion, weather you can vote or not!

    As this is unscientific I just interested in peoples opinion rather than anything else.

    (especially as you have gone for Davis)
    I'm not a Tory, but Davis makes more sense as a replacement for May than any of the alternatives I can think of.
    Boris is a risible idea - and as we saw from the Gove episode, could probably be scared off if push comes to shove.
    Davies, Boris, Hammond, none of them are near the right answer. Tip: go for someone without grey hair.
    Who ?
    Davis isn't ideal, but I'm struggling to come up with a realistic alternative for the current situation.
    Greg Clark potentially, a nice liberal, centrist Tory that has the potential to unify.
    Decent guy, but have enough people even heard of him ?
    And for those that have, there's the homeopathy nonsense.
    Not being previously heard of will I suspect be a substantial positive in the coming election.
    The time for unknowns is in opposition.
    I still think Davis quite possible. What are his odds...
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    There are some amazing Lab results out there in seats they were nowhere in before, e.g.

    Truro and Falmouth 37.7% +22.5!

    The unwind of the tactical votes for LibDems. Second referendum toxic down here in the SW.

    Tbh, somewhat surprised the Cons held on to Camborne and Redruth. George Eustice must have run a good campaign. Fantastic result for Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moorview as well - he hoovered up the great bulk of the departing Kipper vote. (Compare to say North Devon, where the blues picked up only a quarter of it.)

    Huge increase in Ben Bradshaw's personal vote in Exeter.
    It surely is more complex than that. the Yellow peril are within striking distance in a number of seats in Devon and Cornwall.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Could the Orange Book Lib Dems join the Orange party to help out the Conservatives?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Bobajob, you seemed to have forgotten the response to that from myself and Mr. kle4.

    Speaking of videogames, as expertly predicted by me, Warhorse Studios trailed announcement for today was indeed a release date for Kingdom Come Deliverance. Slight delay, alas, to February 2018.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Could the Orange Book Lib Dems join the Orange party to help out the Conservatives?

    Why would they?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    Cyclefree said:

    I think there can be no question about the PB 'post of the year': David Herdson's post on Wednesday evening.

    Agreed.
    Ahem!

    I posted this at 3:31 last Monday:-

    "But I also don't think this particular debate will much help the Tories. Whether more police would help or not is moot. But it does feed into an impression that sometimes the Tories know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Good security does not come cheap. If the aid budget can be protected how much more should this apply to the security/police budget?

    If I - as an "Anyone But Corbyn" voter - feels like this, can we really be sure that the Tories will win?

    I increasingly feel Corbyn might do it. I hope, I really hope, I'm wrong. It will IMO be a moral, political and economic disaster for Britain. But if the last year has taught us anything, it should have taught us that "it should not happen" does not mean "it won't happen".

    If I am wrong you can all laugh and jeer at me on Thursday night. If not, I shall be a political seer. :)"

    I did not get the result right but I was closer than pretty much everyone here with their big Tory majorities, including even some Labour supporters.

    Kudos to Mr Herdson and Rochdale Pioneers for their good posts.
    I believe I agreed with you at the time - but David's post had a visceral impact that set it apart.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Northern Irish politics used to be "over there". Now it is here, frightening.

    Your anti-Irish rant is uncalled for. Please stop.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    10 extra years of austerity in a country under assault with 20,000 fewer police who were told not to scaremonger and nurses not worth a pay rise whilst bankers fiddle Libor get bonuses and get bailed out.
    I'm amazed she got 318
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Well, we truly do live in interesting times
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Could the Orange Book Lib Dems join the Orange party to help out the Conservatives?

    Only if they have a political death wish.
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    Re: Kensington
    I am in this constituency and am away with my family. My wife and I got postal votes but my 2 daughters nominated a proxy.
    When the proxy turned up he could only vote for 1 of them.
    With such a close result would there be grounds/a mechanism for challenging the result?
    Evidence of similar admin problems in other seats, perhaps due to councils being caught on the hop by the sudden nature of the election, new registration procedures etc
    Could other close results be challenged, possibly changing the maths?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    New thread.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,342

    I really think May should shuffle off the stage. She went back on everything she’d said, particularly about the need for an election, and now everything’s backfired on her. Labour is rejuventated, and rejuventated under Corbyn, she’s managed somehow to make Northern Ireland even more polarised and she looks as though the only way a Government with some sort of majority can be formed is by a Tory-DUP ‘alliance”.
    If there’s a plus for her and the Tories it’s that there’s evidence that the Unionist card is worth playing in Scotland, although I don’t the impression that Scots Tories take the same view on Brexit as English and Welsh ones.

    In purely partisan terms, the prospect of May staggering on, propped up by Ulster zealots, facing a newly fired-up Labour opposition with little competition, sounds wonderful.

    In terms of the national interest, less so.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,342

    It takes a heart of stone!

    The tabloid attacks on Jezza all flopped.
    Yes, and it's interesting how Jezza saw them off. Not an angry reaction denouncing the evil Tories. Not a defensive reaction saying actually my conversation in 1973 has been misreported, blah blah. Just carry on being positive, mild and pleasant, and make the tabloids look silly.

    The thing is: most people don't really care that much if he said something unwise 40 years ago, so long as they feel he's a decent bloke now.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,342
    alex. said:

    Any chance Corbyn will blow Labour's result by launching a purge against opponents in his party? Shadow Cabinet might be interesting.

    No. People just don't get Corbyn. Insult him, he eyes you with mild concern and then forgets it. Demand his resignation, he politely declines. He isn't into deselections, revenge, all that crap, just thinks that if you just go on quietly putting a case you think reasonable, then eventually people come round.

    That said, he's loyal to the people who stood by him in the hurricane. Don't expect a purge of his loyalists either.
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    atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    nielh said:


    I would smash buy to let landlords with tax and force them to sell. Everyone deserves a home.

    You are walking in to another dementia tax scenario with your core vote if you take on buy to let.

    That core vote is on the way out. There's a new core vote in town.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,342
    Sean_F said:

    The strangest election since the 1920's. May's strategy almost paid off. The Tories did gain strongly in many working class areas, but mostly not by enough. And, they alienated middle class Remainers.

    The government, even though weak, may last a long time, as only a Conservative government is viable on these numbers.

    Ahem. By-elections. Revolts. Constant talk of coups. Brexit negotiations crises.

    What this election matches most historically is 1950. Labour won with one of the largest votes in British history up to that point. But they were run so close by the Tories and were so exhausted in very sense that they were out within a year.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just don't see how the Tories can win these young people back without Labour having a stint in government?

    Agreed. The Tories could go down the 1923 route and refuse to govern, put Jezza in for a yea and then collapse the administration next year - From the 1923 defeat the Tories won a landslide in 1924.
    If the most important post war negotiations weren't starting in 10 days they may have been tempted. No alternative for May but to stick it out.

    Horrific situation all round, but for the fact it's entirely of her own making I'd feel sorry for her.
    Everyone's got to forget Brexit. It's not going to happen.

    We need to get down on our hands and knees and beg/grovel to the EU to let us stay.
    Don't be ridiculous. We're on course for a transitional Brexit where we leave in stages. If we manage to leave for EFTA/EEA we can sort out our global trading position over the next 3-4 years and get a bespoke trading deal with the EU afterwards that leaves us with the ability to trade freely and easily with the EU and the rest of the world while having some kind of border control system.
    We're in a national emergency now. Brexit was a good idea a year ago but through the idiocy of the Tory Party it's all fallen apart - This is now a fight to keep the lights on for UKPLC literally.

    We need to find a way out of Brexit ASAP (of course that will lead to a surge in support for Farage and probable street riots with people having Brexit stolen from them but we are where we are)
    No need to be so alarmist. Labour are still 50 seats behind and once we get rid of May at least some of the problems go away. The new PM is going to dump house theft immediately, for example, we will probably extend the triple lock (sadly) and keep the WFA for everyone to get older voters back on side. May and her team will get shat on from the greatest of heights by the next PM, the stink of her policies need to be purged.
    An unfunctioning government with a lame duck PM trying to navigate our way through Brexit when 48% of the country (including 75% of the business community and 90% of the Service Sector) think the idea is barking?

    That sounds like a good idea.
This discussion has been closed.