politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do
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The next PM will have to have the skill to explain that although we didn't beat all other parties put together, we had more votes and more seats. And are the only option.MaxPB said:
Not sure that winning the most votes and most seats counts as losing. We didn't win, but we also didn't lose.Bobajob_PB said:
No. You went to the country. And you lost.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
Still Brexiting.JosiasJessop said:
LOL. Care to explain that?GeoffM said:
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.0 -
Labour gain Lincoln0
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@carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE20170
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Devon east NOT an Indy gain0
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Nope. For the last couple of weeks all the polls were consistent with a Tory share of 44%.IanB2 said:
Lol @ the polls! One poll?ThreeQuidder said:
Bang in line with the polls.TheWhiteRabbit said:TMay could get 44%!!
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Plenty suggested that while that was the case last time, itmight not be again.not_on_fire said:
Ah, another one for the busted PB myths listsurbiton said:
I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
- Tory vote is hyper-efficient
Probably, but the SUP cannot be taken for granted. And I'm not from NI, but I doubt they'd agree to a formal deal.paulyork64 said:Will Con + DUP >=323?
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Ruth Davidson is amazing.0
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Wow, that's going to a very late night.NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
One Tory seat I don't care too much about.0 -
Croydon Central gone.0
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A good swing to the Cons also in Bassetlaw.AndreaParma_82 said:Con did very well in Rother Valley. Majority cut to 8%
Must have a chance then in adjacent Derbyshire NE.
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Con gain Stirling.
Lab gain Croydon Central.0 -
And another one. Stirling.0
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David Davis re-elected.
Shame.0 -
Why not? ITV have tweeted it too.alex. said:
Are you supposed to reveal things like that?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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Croydon central falls to jezza0
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4 losses for the SNP in 2 mins there.0
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Yeah, the thread between 2230-2300 is going to be entertaining reading. Hardly anyone believed it despite it being almost spot on in 2015Pong said:Fantastic exit poll in hard circumstances.
Congratulations Curtice et al.0 -
Oh, I thought that had already been declared. I'm torn. I'd still like to see the tiniest of Tory majorities, but I'd like him to lose.Scott_P said:@carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017
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Cath Smith re-elected in Lancaster0
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No. No more elections. We see Brexit through to whatever end, maybe even make Theresa own it and dump her afterwards. Once we have completed Brexit we can go to the people.SeanT said:
Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.0 -
Possibly the second biggest story of the night and not a word on the BBC coverage.Pulpstar said:Ruth Davidson is amazing.
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Conservative 318 + 10 DUP = 3280
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So with scon taking Stirling, we're looking at 10 seats and a winning bet aren't we???0
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Really? Now that's out of left field, I think.TheScreamingEagles said:LD gain Edinburgh SW
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Con gain Stirling0
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There seem to be a lot more incredibly close seats than usually, or is it only me?0
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Lincoln!!!
I mean, I know Lincoln town is a bit of a different beast to rural Lincolnshire (which really was the Brexit Heartland), but still.0 -
A 15k Lab maj in Nottingham South where the Conservatives poured in the resources.0
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You mean Ed West? Or a truly ludicrous result in SW?TheScreamingEagles said:LD gain Edinburgh SW
Con gain Berwick
Lab gain Lincoln !!0 -
Tory vote very efficient. They really do fight for the few not the many0
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I thought the Tories will win in Wales.
Labour = 50% of the votes.0 -
Very close recounts:Scott_P said:@carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017
Cons likely to hold RP, PC likely to take Ceridgion, LDs likely to take Fife NE.0 -
Corbyn says lost votes, but I think the Tories will have more than last time.0
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They will not. Arms length every time.kle4 said:
Plenty suggested that while that was the case last time, itmight not be again.not_on_fire said:
Ah, another one for the busted PB myths listsurbiton said:
I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
- Tory vote is hyper-efficient
Probably, but the SUP cannot be taken for granted. And I'm not from NI, but I doubt they'd agree to a formal deal.paulyork64 said:Will Con + DUP >=323?
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Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?0
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Stirling Con GAIN!0
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Exit poll underestimated SNP losses?0
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One to go I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:So with scon taking Stirling, we're looking at 10 seats and a winning bet aren't we???
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Any word on Argyll and Bute?0
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undoubtedly so. turnout up and share upPulpstar said:Corbyn says lost votes, but I think the Tories will have more than last time.
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Cameron was forced to gamble by the Europhobes and lost.
May chose to gamble and lost.
In the eyes of the Europhobes, it will be Cameron's fault, ffs.0 -
Gah.rcs1000 said:
Very close recounts:Scott_P said:@carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017
Cons likely to hold RP, PC likely to take Ceridgion, LDs likely to take Fife NE.
I lost Stoke bets by 80 votes.0 -
Labour hold Bolsover...0
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Why?JosiasJessop said:David Davis re-elected.
Shame.0 -
Well, we saw what happened when the UUP got to close (though they've ended back in the same place now anyway)Y0kel said:
They will not. Arms length every time.kle4 said:
Plenty suggested that while that was the case last time, itmight not be again.not_on_fire said:
Ah, another one for the busted PB myths listsurbiton said:
I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
- Tory vote is hyper-efficient
Probably, but the SUP cannot be taken for granted. And I'm not from NI, but I doubt they'd agree to a formal deal.paulyork64 said:Will Con + DUP >=323?
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SCON up to 9 (+9)... so with 1 hold, the WillHill 20/1 >9.5 seats bet comes off?0
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You have to feel sorry for her. She's going to be remembered as one of the most inept leaders in British history0
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The beast is back. Labour hold Bolsoveranother_richard said:
A good swing to the Cons also in Bassetlaw.AndreaParma_82 said:Con did very well in Rother Valley. Majority cut to 8%
Must have a chance then in adjacent Derbyshire NE.0 -
A National Government of some sort probably should be in the offing. An open offer to work with anyone who wants to deliver the best possible outcome from the Brexit Negotiations.MaxPB said:
No. No more elections. We see Brexit through to whatever end, maybe even make Theresa own it and dump her afterwards. Once we have completed Brexit we can go to the people.SeanT said:
Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.
It won't happen - but it probably should.0 -
Lab gain Leeds NW.0
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Tories will find a way to govern.
Just to many close to call seats going Tory.0 -
Edin North & Leith
SNP hold. Split unionist vote0 -
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All less than 250 odd votes.Mortimer said:
Gah.rcs1000 said:
Very close recounts:Scott_P said:@carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017
Cons likely to hold RP, PC likely to take Ceridgion, LDs likely to take Fife NE.
I lost Stoke bets by 80 votes.0 -
SNP hold in charles kennedy's old seat0
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Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.0
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A bit baffled by the Tories not gaining Perth now.
Wales being very nice to Labour still, only Scotland playing to the script.0 -
Labour gained Leeds NW0
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Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.kle4 said:Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?
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Leeds NW gone to Lab from LD.0
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being selfish - god knows what my tax bill will be in 6 months - time to go self employed?0
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Must be West. Libs in SW would be like UKIP winning Islington North.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You mean Ed West? Or a truly ludicrous result in SW?
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Karl McCartney goes down in brexit flames in Lincoln. Revenge of the remainers?0
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I think the BBC LD forecast of 11 is one or two short.
Fife NE and O&S should both be LD.0 -
Shipley still not confirmed labour gain.0
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And a massive ego.KentRising said:
Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.kle4 said:Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?
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Too oldKentRising said:
Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.kle4 said:Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?
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ITV projecting 16 LD seats?!0
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What's in it for the rest of the EU? Spain only has so much pull.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
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What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?GeoffM said:
Still Brexiting.JosiasJessop said:
LOL. Care to explain that?GeoffM said:
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.
To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.0 -
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Also, I thought the idea the majority, or even the composition of the parliament, had any influence on the deal was supposed to be silly?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
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*claps*JosiasJessop said:
What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?GeoffM said:
Still Brexiting.JosiasJessop said:
LOL. Care to explain that?GeoffM said:
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.
To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.0 -
one of the hidden surprises of this election. People tought Sturgeon would falter but this is a horrendous result.SeanT said:SNP down to 32, projected
Heheheheheheh
Fuck off indyref20 -
Too high, likely to be 13.not_on_fire said:ITV projecting 16 LD seats?!
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We need to satisfy 27 nations. It only takes one to bugger up the entire dealkle4 said:
What's in it for the rest of the EU? Spain only has so much pull.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
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On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?0
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CON Gain Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk0
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Does he understand EVFEL?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.0
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Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinctionrcs1000 said:0 -
LOL SNP Hold N&L against the tide.0
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Won't the SLAN and SLD MPs cancel it out though?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Not surprising given Holyrood results last year.Paristonda said:SNP hold in charles kennedy's old seat
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Labour hold Halifax.
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Can't be much older than Corbyn?IanB2 said:
Too oldKentRising said:
Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.kle4 said:Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?
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Yeah, I suspect there will be a by election there soon. I doubt she would want to stick around.MaxPB said:Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.
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@FraserWhyte81: Salmond currently scribbling on some scraps of paper... Rewriting his planned speech perhaps?0
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Or Farron.not_on_fire said:
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinctionrcs1000 said:0 -
Theresa out by tomorrow night!0
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Tories are now in the lead with the popular vote.0
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The one major problem, self inflicted by the Tory austerity cuts of the Civil Service, is that there are not enough qualified civil servants to do the work required. And it is virtually impossible to hire qualified and security checked staff at the wages and conditions on offer.edmundintokyo said:
Not saying you're wrong, but by what process?TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
They can't be taken from other departments, no volunteers as it may damage future prospects, and nearly all the departments are short staffed for the work required.
Nearly every one in Parliament now realises that the reality of Brexit is actually Brexsh*t, and any excuse to ditch it will do fine.0 -
Why you you have that as an OR?JosiasJessop said:
What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?GeoffM said:
Still Brexiting.JosiasJessop said:
LOL. Care to explain that?GeoffM said:
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.
To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.
I think being out of the EU *is* good for the country.0
This discussion has been closed.