I've backed a Tory minority government at 1.42. Can anyone else see an alternative outcome?
If we knew May was not about to resign then backing her as next PM at 1.86 looks decent value. But will she stick it out or pass the baton on? I think she will be PM in the immediate post election government. I don't think the Great British Public would readily accept yet another unelected and "parachuted in" PM.
However grim this looks for the SNP, it'll only get grimes in the next election as the tactical voters work out what to do. (ENL, Fife & Perth will all fall).
Weaver Vale Labour gain.I flagged this up yesterday at long odds.What a Labour campaign.The organising teams can pat themselves on the back and the comms have just been at a different level.The excellent rebuttal to the Tory lies was swift and aggressive, and the garden tax remains in just a wet dream of CCHQ.
Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.
You have lost.
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
It looks as though you have lost seats.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
You've still lost that one.
Suck it up.
LOL. Care to explain that?
Still Brexiting.
What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?
To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.
Why you you have that as an OR?
I think being out of the EU *is* good for the country.
Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.
What's Osborne going to offer ?
Higher student fees ? Higher house prices ? More borrowing to fund vanity projects ?
The Conservatives left with a minority administration. Theresa May will be gone later today, though probably hang on a few weeks whilst the bloodlettings commence.
Whilst clearly Labour have gone forward, it's under Corbyn which about 180 of the MPs don't want as leader or even agree with his programme, but now can't deny that it is his programme that has gone forward, his ideas that are ringing with the country.
I can't see the Conservative administration lasting 5 years. I think we could easily see a 2020 election (forced), which would be ironic. As for Brexit, that's going to be a real, real problem now but with Labour technically supporting it, something must be negotiated. But it's probably going to be disastrous.
I started the campaign as a labour optimist thinking they might get close to 200. Well done Corbyn, you magnificent bastard. I hope he personally visits all his moderate rebels and asks them to kiss his ring.
Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.
What's Osborne going to offer ?
Higher student fees ? Higher house prices ? More borrowing to fund vanity projects ?
Student loans aren't working. I've seen it too often. People default, loans aren't repaid, students give up.
A new deal is needed. Not Corbyn's free unicorns bollox, but summat.
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinction
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,
Indeed. WTF Was Fox Hunting doing in the Tory manifesto. Crazy
Foxes can sleep easy now
Until they die of hunger, disease or being shot, snared or poisoned. Foxes do not drift off gently in bed in extreme old age surrounded by hundreds of loving foxy-woxy children and grandchildren.
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinction
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,
How does that compare to your prediction last week?
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinction
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,
Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.
You have lost.
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!
With Boris as PM going into the next election, it will be a case of hiring scales to weigh the Labour vote, and a microscope to count the Tory's.
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinction
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,
How does that compare to your prediction last week?
Comments
If we knew May was not about to resign then backing her as next PM at 1.86 looks decent value. But will she stick it out or pass the baton on? I think she will be PM in the immediate post election government. I don't think the Great British Public would readily accept yet another unelected and "parachuted in" PM.
Tories would have a majority when you take out SNP....
SNP =
What a waste of time.
Higher student fees ? Higher house prices ? More borrowing to fund vanity projects ?
= Thin majority for Conservatives
The Conservatives left with a minority administration. Theresa May will be gone later today, though probably hang on a few weeks whilst the bloodlettings commence.
Whilst clearly Labour have gone forward, it's under Corbyn which about 180 of the MPs don't want as leader or even agree with his programme, but now can't deny that it is his programme that has gone forward, his ideas that are ringing with the country.
I can't see the Conservative administration lasting 5 years. I think we could easily see a 2020 election (forced), which would be ironic. As for Brexit, that's going to be a real, real problem now but with Labour technically supporting it, something must be negotiated. But it's probably going to be disastrous.
Without 30-odd SNP MPs, the Tories will be able to get their English domestic agenda through quite easily.
It is the national votes like the budget and Queens Speech that are going to be the harder battles.
Ruth, laird of all she surveys.
This is an obvious potential consequence of your position.
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,
Recount at Ashfield
May will govern and refuse to go.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Madness.