politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

The live footage of May heading down the M4 looks like the coverage of the evacuation of the nurse who was diagnosed with ebola.

Amazing to think Andy Street won the West Midlands barely a month ago.

alex. said:

MaxPB said:

Bobajob_PB said:

MaxPB said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

321, 322, 323, 324 possible.

No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.

You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

You have lost.

No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.

Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!

Playing the long con perfectly. (geddit?)

Pulpstar said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.

Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?

Yes it did, it said, if the Union matters vote for us.

It does matter. Don't let all that talk of Unionists (of whatever shade) going all soft on unification because of Brexit fool you.

Blood is thicker than water

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Ilford N Lab

I had a feeling it would be, even as I voted

Does "Sunil" now mean "blue" in a slightly more literal way, Dr P?

SeanT said:

Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?

IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:

Boris
Rudd
Hammond
Davis
uhm...
Fallon?

anyone else?

I think Boris wins this.

Hunt.

AR404 said:

Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC

I hope she wins, lot of time for her.

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...

Send them all for re-education.

They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?

A £30K bribe which they pay for. Smart.

*Some* of them pay for. The clever will avoid it, to the cost of the others.

As ever.

A cold, hard nosed bribe of about £30k per kid, Middle class friends of mine with teenage kids, probably natural Tories, rather shamefacedly admitted they had decided to take the money, Not good governance, but understandable on a personal/family level.

williamglenn said:

The live footage of May heading down the M4 looks like the coverage of the evacuation of the nurse who was diagnosed with ebola.

About as toxic :-)

Bobajob_PB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

The last laugh for the jilted generation.

It's quite amusing.

Tory remainers stayed at home.

Bobajob_PB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

The last laugh for the jilted generation.

See, you don't need online voting or PR to be heard, just show up in the right place in the right numbers.

Bobajob_PB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

The last laugh for the jilted generation.

Those pesky kids!

ThreeQuidder said:

llef said:

if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?

(650-7)/2 = 643/2 = 322 to win.

thanks - im tired - or excited - or bad at maths!

Edin West LD gain

alex. said:

MaxPB said:

Bobajob_PB said:

MaxPB said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

321, 322, 323, 324 possible.

No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.

You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

You have lost.

No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.

Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!

No I don't think so, plus I'm not sure Corbyn will be there in 2022, a younger hard left leader will replace him and take the Labour party forwards on the same platform.

alex. said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.

Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.

It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.

It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.

FTPA

Indeed. FTPA actually makes a minority govt more stable, surely....

tlg86 said:

Labour gain Warrington South.

My fear that the whole Corbyn/IRA was priced in/irrelevant has borne out to be true.

tlg86 said:

Labour gain Warrington South.

You would have thought if Corbyn's history was going to resonate anywhere it would be there.

Have the tv companies done any estimates on vote shares for other parties?

Bobajob_PB said:

MaxPB said:

Bobajob_PB said:

MaxPB said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

321, 322, 323, 324 possible.

No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.

You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

You have lost.

No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.

No. You went to the country. And you lost.

That "Corbynite rabble" has just secured a huge amount of support from the general public.

Chameleon said:

AndyJS said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

TravelJunkie said:

Can may hang on?

No. The knives are out already.

No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.

Who do you think is most likely to replace her?

Someone equally shit, who will bang on about the same things, and go out the same way.

"Mr Hammond, they're playing your song..."

Second recounta t Southampton Itchen.

KentRising said:

May resignation at midday in front of No.10, staying on until the new leader is unveiled. Basically, Cammo's speech from last year.

Ironic that she may get the highest vote share for 46 years.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.

The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.

yup

And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.

But looks like getting 44%.

Now how much did Cameron manage ?

Foster ruling out propping up Corbyn.

Sturgeon staying on, defiant. Not spoken with people in Gordon.

GeoffM said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

Bobajob_PB said:

MaxPB said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

321, 322, 323, 324 possible.

No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.

You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

You have lost.

No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.

It looks as though you have lost seats.

Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.

You've still lost that one.

Suck it up.

LOL. Care to explain that?

LOL - I thought I made a projection on low side at work - but I am going to look stupid on Monday

The_Apocalypse said:

EPG said:

Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.

I knew that screaming 'IRA' was never going to gain the Tories votes.

I KNEW the North was swinging back to Labour big time in the final weeks, I could just feel it in my bones.

Midlands relatively poor for Lab, though.

surbiton said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.

Ah, another one for the busted PB myths list

- Tory vote is hyper-efficient

Priti Patel, the next PM, holds her seat ;-)

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

Bobajob_PB said:

MaxPB said:

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

321, 322, 323, 324 possible.

No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.

You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

You have lost.

No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.

Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.

Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.

and lose.

so be it - but try to keep stalinists from power

full recount in ceredigion
less than 150 votes between 1st and 2nd
expected in 30 mins

Oh wow, I didn't realise the SDLP had lost all their seats.

Will Con + DUP >=323?

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.

The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.

yup

And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.

But looks like getting 44%.

Now how much did Cameron manage ?

133 net seat gains.

The pound shop Bonar Law lost seats.

@BBCPhilipSim: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Conservative GAIN from SNP.

hunchman said:

JosiasJessop said:

Danny565 said:

Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.

Sky saying Tory 315-325 so hung parliament!

If it is 7 SF MPs, then that reduces the effective majority to 318 ...

Go to the moderate Labour mps, tell them to elect a different parlimentary leader so the left piss off. Offer a national government to run things for the period of Brexit talks.
Tory PM, Labour Chancellor, (try and get Balls back in parliament pronto). Stability at least?

If CON reach 44% it would be the best result for any party since CON in 1970.

SNP getting monstered

ThreeQuidder said:

Sky: Con 315-325. JCICINPM, surely.

Tories need to be down to 295 or so, realistically, for JICIPM. He needs about 280 seats plus 30 SNP but confidence and supply from Lib Dems. Even then it's tight.

3 more losses for the SNP.

2 wins in Scotland for Tories. But they can't keep up with English losses.

WAK gone Con.

Berwickshire