politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do
Options
Comments
-
Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
The live footage of May heading down the M4 looks like the coverage of the evacuation of the nurse who was diagnosed with ebola.0
-
Labour beating Tories by 75,000 votes0
-
Amazing to think Andy Street won the West Midlands barely a month ago.0
-
I don't want it, but I think you'd be right - charisma will be the order of the day, not the appearance of dull competence.SeanT said:Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?
IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:
Boris
Rudd
Hammond
Davis
uhm...
Fallon?
anyone else?
I think Boris wins this.0 -
Playing the long con perfectly. (geddit?)alex. said:
Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
The last laugh for the jilted generation.0 -
Yes it did, it said, if the Union matters vote for us.Pulpstar said:
Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?Lucian_Fletcher said:I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.
It does matter. Don't let all that talk of Unionists (of whatever shade) going all soft on unification because of Brexit fool you.
Blood is thicker than water0 -
Does "Sunil" now mean "blue" in a slightly more literal way, Dr P?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I had a feeling it would be, even as I votedIanB2 said:Ilford N Lab
0 -
@davidtorrance: .@PoliticalYeti "But somehow the commentators will find a way to say that peak Nat has passed..." Silly commentators.0
-
Priti!SeanT said:Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?
IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:
Boris
Rudd
Hammond
Davis
uhm...
Fallon?
anyone else?
I think Boris wins this.0 -
Haven't Sky shown us enough of Theresa's sorry motorcade!0
-
A cold, hard nosed bribe of about £30k per kid, Middle class friends of mine with teenage kids, probably natural Tories, rather shamefacedly admitted they had decided to take the money, Not good governance, but understandable on a personal/family level.JosiasJessop said:
*Some* of them pay for. The clever will avoid it, to the cost of the others.Richard_Nabavi said:
A £30K bribe which they pay for. Smart.tlg86 said:
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
As ever.0 -
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
0 -
About as toxic :-)williamglenn said:The live footage of May heading down the M4 looks like the coverage of the evacuation of the nurse who was diagnosed with ebola.
0 -
May resignation at midday in front of No.10, staying on until the new leader is unveiled. Basically, Cammo's speech from last year.0
-
Well done to my friend James Cleverly in Braintree0
-
I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
0 -
It's quite amusing.Bobajob_PB said:
Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
The last laugh for the jilted generation.0 -
Tory remainers stayed at home.0
-
Labour gain Warrington South.0
-
No. You went to the country. And you lost.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
See, you don't need online voting or PR to be heard, just show up in the right place in the right numbers.Bobajob_PB said:
Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
The last laugh for the jilted generation.0 -
Those pesky kids!Bobajob_PB said:
Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
The last laugh for the jilted generation.0 -
Superb night for Labour - Warrington s goes red0
-
Labour gain Warrington South0
-
thanks - im tired - or excited - or bad at maths!ThreeQuidder said:
(650-7)/2 = 643/2 = 322 to win.llef said:if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?
0 -
-
Edin West LD gain0
-
Labour got 30% of vote in Scotland but only 6 seats.
Tories 23% in Scotland 6 seats so far.0 -
No I don't think so, plus I'm not sure Corbyn will be there in 2022, a younger hard left leader will replace him and take the Labour party forwards on the same platform.alex. said:
Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.0
-
Indeed. FTPA actually makes a minority govt more stable, surely....alex. said:
FTPACasino_Royale said:
It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.0 -
Labour gain warrington0
-
My fear that the whole Corbyn/IRA was priced in/irrelevant has borne out to be true.tlg86 said:Labour gain Warrington South.
0 -
You would have thought if Corbyn's history was going to resonate anywhere it would be there.tlg86 said:Labour gain Warrington South.
0 -
Con did very well in Rother Valley. Majority cut to 8%0
-
Have the tv companies done any estimates on vote shares for other parties?0
-
Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.0
-
That "Corbynite rabble" has just secured a huge amount of support from the general public.Bobajob_PB said:
No. You went to the country. And you lost.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
"Mr Hammond, they're playing your song..."Chameleon said:
Someone equally shit, who will bang on about the same things, and go out the same way.AndyJS said:
Who do you think is most likely to replace her?Richard_Nabavi said:
No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.MaxPB said:
No. The knives are out already.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
0 -
I knew that screaming 'IRA' was never going to gain the Tories votes.EPG said:Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.
0 -
Second recounta t Southampton Itchen.0
-
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.0 -
Ironic that she may get the highest vote share for 46 years.KentRising said:May resignation at midday in front of No.10, staying on until the new leader is unveiled. Basically, Cammo's speech from last year.
0 -
Con vote not that inefficient.
It's Con 44, Lab 41
And Con will be 50 seats ahead0 -
But looks like getting 44%.SeanT said:
yupTheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.SeanT said:
Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
Now how much did Cameron manage ?
0 -
I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.Danny565 said:Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.
0 -
Foster ruling out propping up Corbyn.0
-
Votes tallies are meaningless in FPTP.another_richard said:
But looks like getting 44%.SeanT said:
yupTheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.SeanT said:
Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
Now how much did Cameron manage ?0 -
Sturgeon staying on, defiant. Not spoken with people in Gordon.0
-
LOL. Care to explain that?GeoffM said:
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.0 -
and lose.SeanT said:
Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.0 -
LOL - I thought I made a projection on low side at work - but I am going to look stupid on Monday0
-
Sky: Con 315-325. JCICINPM, surely.0
-
I KNEW the North was swinging back to Labour big time in the final weeks, I could just feel it in my bones.The_Apocalypse said:
I knew that screaming 'IRA' was never going to gain the Tories votes.EPG said:Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.
Midlands relatively poor for Lab, though.0 -
@skyelections: Conservative gain #Berwickshire from SNP #GE20170
-
Sky saying Tory 315-325 so hung parliament!JosiasJessop said:
I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.Danny565 said:Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.
0 -
I think Tom is going to lose now.Chameleon said:
The con lack of majority I hope? Not anything going on in NI?Lucian_Fletcher said:I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.
0 -
Ah, another one for the busted PB myths listsurbiton said:
I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.FrancisUrquhart said:If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
- Tory vote is hyper-efficient0 -
Lol @ the polls! One poll?ThreeQuidder said:
Bang in line with the polls.TheWhiteRabbit said:TMay could get 44%!!
0 -
Priti Patel, the next PM, holds her seat ;-)0
-
IDS's majority was cut to just 2,438 votes.0
-
so be it - but try to keep stalinists from powerJonathan said:
and lose.SeanT said:
Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.0 -
Not sure that winning the most votes and most seats counts as losing. We didn't win, but we also didn't lose.Bobajob_PB said:
No. You went to the country. And you lost.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
full recount in ceredigion
less than 150 votes between 1st and 2nd
expected in 30 mins
0 -
My thinking is that this somehow happens via Boris' previous idea of a 2nd referendum. He believed from the outset that the EU would not negotiate meaningfully with us until we rejected them in an initial EU referendum.edmundintokyo said:
Not saying you're wrong, but by what process?TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
0 -
Jackie Doyle price has won 3 elections in 3 figures lucky lucky girl0
-
Oh wow, I didn't realise the SDLP had lost all their seats.0
-
Will Con + DUP >=323?0
-
Yes but Cameron cleverly split the working class left wing vote by using UKIP as a foil.another_richard said:
But looks like getting 44%.SeanT said:
yupTheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.SeanT said:
Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
Now how much did Cameron manage ?
0 -
133 net seat gains.another_richard said:
But looks like getting 44%.SeanT said:
yupTheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.SeanT said:
Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
Now how much did Cameron manage ?
The pound shop Bonar Law lost seats.0 -
Cons GAIN Berwick0
-
@BBCPhilipSim: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Conservative GAIN from SNP.0
-
One seat in Antrim they won back after a loss in 2015. One seat won on 30% versus opposition divided 3 ways, after finishing in the pack in 2015. Generally speaking, the two communities are uniting around their larger parties, which isn't great in the long run.Pulpstar said:
Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?Lucian_Fletcher said:I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.
0 -
If it is 7 SF MPs, then that reduces the effective majority to 318 ...hunchman said:
Sky saying Tory 315-325 so hung parliament!JosiasJessop said:
I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.Danny565 said:Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.
0 -
Go to the moderate Labour mps, tell them to elect a different parlimentary leader so the left piss off. Offer a national government to run things for the period of Brexit talks.
Tory PM, Labour Chancellor, (try and get Balls back in parliament pronto). Stability at least?0 -
Richmond stays blue0
-
Fantastic exit poll in hard circumstances.
Congratulations Curtice et al.0 -
If CON reach 44% it would be the best result for any party since CON in 1970.
0 -
SNP getting monstered0
-
Hold?KentRising said:Cons GAIN Berwick
0 -
Tories need to be down to 295 or so, realistically, for JICIPM. He needs about 280 seats plus 30 SNP but confidence and supply from Lib Dems. Even then it's tight.ThreeQuidder said:Sky: Con 315-325. JCICINPM, surely.
0 -
Tory Labour seat crossover incoming!0
-
3 more losses for the SNP.0
-
Also: Labour's raw votes tally isn't going to be far off 1997, I think.0
-
2 wins in Scotland for Tories. But they can't keep up with English losses.0
-
WAK gone Con.0
-
The next PM will have to have the skill to explain that although we didn't beat all other parties put together, we had more votes and more seats. And are the only option.MaxPB said:
Not sure that winning the most votes and most seats counts as losing. We didn't win, but we also didn't lose.Bobajob_PB said:
No. You went to the country. And you lost.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
LD gain Edinburgh SW
Con gain Berwick
Lab gain Lincoln !!0
This discussion has been closed.