politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do
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LOL at LibDem ramping in Vauxhall0
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No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.MaxPB said:
No. The knives are out already.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
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Con so far down 9 seats
12 gains
21 losses0 -
I had a SkyBet special of Labour to hold Chester, Alyn and Ellesemere at 11/1.Chameleon said:Lab hold City of Chester.
Very nice.0 -
Which will go down like a cup of cold sick. It's a delightful prospect.OchEye said:
He'll hold back till the next election in the autumn, then he'll try for Holyrood, again to take over from Sturgeon.Scott_P said:@akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017
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Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!0
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LOL at whoever said LDs would win Vauxhall.0
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deader than disco.Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
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Lib Dems within 1% on canvass o_O ?!0
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plaid won arfon by 92 votes.
is that the smallest margin so far??0 -
Jaisus.NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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Seems like despite a few losses (poor Clegg...and the other guy), England has been good for the LDs, as is Scotland, and only Wales might let them down- no word from Ceredigion and the recount?0
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Ilford N Lab0
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To whom?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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So can we say that Theresa may has saved the Union?
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i didnt think it would happen but-Peter_the_Punter said:
Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?williamglenn said:
The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
What was it?
change in demographics
large public sector employment and growing
MAIN REASON
Awful candidate-the oldies love him but personally i think he is dreadful (and i am 50 this year)0 -
@euanmccolm: sturgeon and her team currently have no idea what to do. these results have caught them unawares. the fm is about to be severely tested.0
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Lab gain Weaver Vale, wherever that is0
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That was just to distract from them taking Eastbourne!AndreaParma_82 said:LOL at LibDem ramping in Vauxhall
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Excellent.....NickPalmer said:
Good news for animal welfare people - Chris Williamson is exceptionally committed on that.Chameleon said:Derby north gone Lab.
Foxes will be breathing a little easier tonight too....and the badger cull????
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Who do you think is most likely to replace her?Richard_Nabavi said:
No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.MaxPB said:
No. The knives are out already.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
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Home truths time.
The Tories have lost.
Give it up.
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Good news hard Brexiteers, Andrea Leadsom re-elected0
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Kellner says Tory voteshare will be up to 44%0
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Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:
To whom?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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It's a dumb choice.MaxPB said:
I seriously doubt it, I think we'll get a referendum on what comes next. Hard Brexit vs EEA/EFTA is my bet.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
A five year transition period of EEA/EFTA (during which we can forge new relationships), followed by a referendum on the future relationship with the EU.
Everyone should be able to agree to that.0 -
Edinburgh West LD gain from SNP0
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So May rocked up in Slough. Labour won 62.9% of the vote.0
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I'm surprised that the Conservatives gained Southport as yet again they're doing completely shite in Greater Merseyside.rcs1000 said:Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?
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WowChameleon said:0 -
Chesterfield Lab hold0
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if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?0
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Redditch Con hold0
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Another huge hold for Labour.IanB2 said:Ilford N Lab
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Correct. It's the carefully presented empty heads that people object to. There has never been a more vacuous and inept campaign than May's. Indeed, can anyone recall what she "campaigned" on?Cyclefree said:
She also had something to say.HYUFD said:
May, Hillary, Gillard, Royal, sad to say voters do not like earnest, hardbitten women leaders it seems, Merkel the exception but she can be fat and jovial. Thatcher was in the right place at the right timenumbertwelve said:
I do feel sorry for her. You don't want to get to the highest office in the land only to relinquish it a mere year later... Sadly, she didn't have a leadership campaign proper, and she wasn't shown up as being, well, utterly useless at actually campaigning.Oliver said:Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.
May didn't.
She - and the Tories - believed her own propaganda. Hubris.0 -
Whatever else has happened tonight, Scottish Indy has taken a severe setback. That is good news.0
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The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.SeanT said:
Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
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Edinburgh West back to Lib Dems.0
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No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.0 -
@BBCPhilipSim: Edinburgh West is a Lib Dem GAIN from the SNP.0
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Are you supposed to reveal things like that?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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has NI really gone 10 to DUP and 6 to SF???0
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Chester
Lab 56.8
Con 40.50 -
While the Tories weakness is they 'only ever panic in a crisis' their strength is they are completely unsentimental about leaders....,,,,Y0kel said:
This is correct, Tory leaders are mean't to win..not come 2nd and claim victory, but win. She didn't.Chameleon said:
No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
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Cheshire/Mersey borderlandsalex. said:Lab gain Weaver Vale, wherever that is
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Someone equally shit, who will bang on about the same things, and go out the same way.AndyJS said:
Who do you think is most likely to replace her?Richard_Nabavi said:
No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.MaxPB said:
No. The knives are out already.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
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SNP only need 3 more for a majority of Scottish seats. Come on unionists.0
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Same as Fife NE. There is going to be some real cliff hangers tonight.Chameleon said:0 -
I'm going +1 on that.hunchman said:
Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:
To whom?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
Happy to see her toast to anyone else.0 -
She gambled, she lost. She's finished, and I think she knows it.CarlottaVance said:
While the Tories weakness is they 'only ever panic in a crisis' their strength is they are completely unsentimental about leaders....,,,,Y0kel said:
This is correct, Tory leaders are mean't to win..not come 2nd and claim victory, but win. She didn't.Chameleon said:
No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
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As well as the Conservatives holding Morley they had a bid swing in Penistone.
Here's hoping that Wakefield can come through for DH.0 -
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I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.0
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That's down to Ruthalex. said:So can we say that Theresa may has saved the Union?
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She needs to win. Every remainers vote will be key.hunchman said:
Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:
To whom?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.0 -
Southport is always guaranteed to misbehave. It always does the opposite of what you think!another_richard said:
I'm surprised that the Conservatives gained Southport as yet again they're doing completely shite in Greater Merseyside.rcs1000 said:Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?
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Full recount for Amber Rudd0
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Nah, this parliament is hung is just a way that no semi-stable government will be able to be formed. Back to the polls in autumn.kle4 said:
No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.0 -
another election by October?0
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That's the fourth I think?Big_G_NorthWales said:Full recount for Amber Rudd
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You are joking? You went to the country, you got your arses kicked.kle4 said:
No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.
Go into opposition.0 -
I had a feeling it would be, even as I votedIanB2 said:Ilford N Lab
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Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC0
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Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?Lucian_Fletcher said:I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.
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(650-7)/2 = 643/2 = 322 to win.llef said:if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?
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Hope Soubry can win in Broxtowe.IanB2 said:
She needs to win. Every remainers vote will be key.hunchman said:
Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:
To whom?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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TMay could get 44%!!0
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bigjohnowls said:
Vince back in Twickenham great news
For Labour yes.....0 -
Yes, it's a clear and pleasant morning in Cheltenham, Jack.JackW said:Any news on Cheltenham?
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I doubt anyone wants a new election soon. The Tories need to spend the next year working on their manifesto, for starters!Casino_Royale said:
It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.0 -
What was worse was having lots of MPs scattered all over the place whose electorates had little in common (2015). At least now it's clear that they are a Scottish unionist, and chintzy town / suburban anti-Tory party.Paristonda said:
ITV saying 16 which is fine by me. Big churn in MPs indicates the LD party has a new makeup though. Seems like they have gained largely through Scottish tactical voting, not good for the long term.rcs1000 said:0 -
FTPACasino_Royale said:
It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.0 -
Liverpool
Labour lowest share is 77.7% for Maria Eagle. Luciana Berger got 79%, Twigg, Ellman and the new guy in Walton all in 80-85% range0 -
Said by a non-small-c-conservative.hunchman said:
Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.TheScreamingEagles said:
To whom?NickPalmer said:Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
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Quickly regretting this. Should have stuck with my instincts. At least for value.stjohn said:It looks like the Tories will form a minority government. But will May lead it? I've reversed my Boris bets to be PM after the GE but who knows?
Now Betfair PM after GE
May 1.82- 1.92
Boris 5.3 - 5.9
Corbyn 5.7 - 5.90 -
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
Come on Amber.AR404 said:Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC
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We haven't had a declaration yet from Hastings & Rye have we?0
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If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.0
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The con lack of majority I hope? Not anything going on in NI?Lucian_Fletcher said:I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.
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Look at what happened though - massive increase in the Labour vote to come second with 15,500 votes. It was supposed to be a Con-LD marginal.hunchman said:
Southport is always guaranteed to misbehave. It always does the opposite of what you think!another_richard said:
I'm surprised that the Conservatives gained Southport as yet again they're doing completely shite in Greater Merseyside.rcs1000 said:Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?
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Do the Tories currently have a Deputy PM or First Secretary of State who could credibly be asked to be caretaker PM?0
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And still have to resignTheWhiteRabbit said:TMay could get 44%!!
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Did Brown ever get 44%? This is no great result for May granted but she has still got a higher Tory voteshare than any Tory leader since 1979. Brown and May both serious, hardworking politicians but neither sadly had the charisma needed to win elections in modern politics, Boris is clearly the populist, charismatic choice the Tories need now, with Davidson staying in ScotlandSeanT said:
yupTheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.SeanT said:
Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
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No.kle4 said:Do the Tories currently have a Deputy PM or First Secretary of State who could credibly be asked to be caretaker PM?
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Bang in line with the polls.TheWhiteRabbit said:TMay could get 44%!!
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Labour don't have the numbers.Bobajob_PB said:
You are joking? You went to the country, you got your arses kicked.kle4 said:
No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.SeanT said:
Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.
Go into opposition.0 -
Not saying you're wrong, but by what process?TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
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