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  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    So the big assumption on here over the past 6 weeks that UKIP voters would all switch to Con is looking blown out of the water.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Philip Davies losing in Shipley:)

    What? 18% gap!
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Haha! On the nail
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sterling on the slide again, GBPUSD 25 pips above the exit poll low
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Artist said:

    Miliband laid the groundwork for Labour progressing in urban areas in the south.

    Nah. The situation is totally different. My guess - and it is little more than that - is that it is young versus old.

    It'll be interesting to see if this slightly drunken thought is backed up by later analysis.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    You know how all along we've been spotting that Labour are doing well in: Labour safe seats, Tory safe seats.

    This is exactly what seems to be happening....

    We haven't had any marginal results to say otherwise yet.
    Damn you and your logic, sir! :)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Con to lose Northampton North? Northampton ******* North!!!!
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    While you're waiting for the big marginals, have a go at the GE cryptic crossword https://dadge.wordpress.com/2017/06/08/general-election-cryptic-crossword/
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    MarqueeMark said:

    Story seems to be ex-UKIP voters splitting 2:1 to Labour.

    I mentioned this very specifically here, a couple of weeks ago, about how the UKIP-to-Labour figure was strikingly high compared to Tory-Lab traffic, in that particular poll there.

    Corbyn appeal to flat-cap UKIP + predominant refighting of Brexit in the opposite direction, exaggerating all the Remain trends for Labour = goodnight Lynton and Teresa.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.

    How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
    Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
    Glad someone is :-)
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    NickPalmer said:

    Northampton North???!!! 15% margin to overcome.

    Northampton South must be in danger too. The previous Conservative MP stood down over a local financing scandal and the new candidate was parachuted in from Derbyshire.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    bigjohnowls said:

    Lab biggest party if Thurrock Northampton North

    Well congrats to you.

    Brexit and Corbyn both winners - maybe only you and Old Labour celebrating both.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DavidPBMaddox: Looks like Tories could lose Shipley...here that Philip Davies has said it is "too close to call"

    That's a bloody 10,000 majority there. Jesus.
    This is heading for a labour minority government
    One can only hope....

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    No new election. We've had enough - minority government and fight for every vote.
    And Brexit? Whither May's ridiculous Hard Brexit?
    Hash it out on the floor of the Commons.
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    workington and middlesboro, north holding up for tories, yorkshire marginals critical
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    Plaid source tells me looks like they're running third in Ynys Mon. Both Labour and Plaid say Arfon very close #2017Election
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    I do.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MarqueeMark said:

    Where are the Tory gains from Labour going to come from?

    They're not.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Shed a tear for ICM right now

    Shed a tear for people who tweeted sarcastically about YouGov. Although YouGov utterly fucked up by their last minute poll adjustment to their final poll
    Putting undecideds back to their 2015 vote when so many of them were ukip voters pondering where to go was always dumb. I said as much this morning.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DavidPBMaddox: Looks like Tories could lose Shipley...here that Philip Davies has said it is "too close to call"

    That's a bloody 10,000 majority there. Jesus.
    This is heading for a labour minority government
    I have a plane ticket to Prague in mid August, if anyone wants to buy it, I don't suppose that anyone would be interested in the return.
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kle4 said:

    A lot less 'this exit poll is bollocks' stuff now I see.

    It is bollocks, but not necessarily to the Conservative's advantage...
  • spudgfsh
    spudgfsh Posts: 1,568
    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    https://twitter.com/NeilAPerry/status/872960531262472192

    Normal Lamb is close to holding on in Norfolk North (no UKIP candidate this time!)

    From a personal perspective, I really hope he holds on.
    As someone who's suffered from Mental Health problems in the past so do I. He's done more in the last 7 years than any other polititician
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    You know how all along we've been spotting that Labour are doing well in: Labour safe seats, Tory safe seats.

    This is exactly what seems to be happening....

    We haven't had any marginal results to say otherwise yet.
    We also haven't seen any big Remain seats come in yet either.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Floater said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.

    How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
    Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
    Glad someone is :-)
    I am.

    People want a change. Brexit showed that.
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Something tells me Clegg will be happy if LD > 10 and he loses his seat. He finally gets to take the retirement with his lovely wife, that would have shafted his party when they were on 8.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Tories could be below their exit poll score if they don't do as well in Scotland and Wales
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    No new election. We've had enough - minority government and fight for every vote.
    And Brexit? Whither May's ridiculous Hard Brexit?
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    No new election. We've had enough - minority government and fight for every vote.
    And Brexit? Whither May's ridiculous Hard Brexit?
    Then you just increase the UKIP vote, softish Brexit with free movement and some transition controls delayed could be the way but it will not be easy
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    I do.
    So do I
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    MarqueeMark said:

    Where are the Tory gains from Labour going to come from?

    Exactly. There aren't any.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
    I feel sorry for both Cameron and May, both capable politicians, both backed Remain both screwed by the current volatility and mood of the electorate, ie anti austerity, anti globalisation, anti immigration etc
    No need to feel sorry for either of them.

    Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Story seems to be ex-UKIP voters splitting 2:1 to Labour.

    Kippers are traitors.

    Why oh why did I ever think differently.
    Kippers are NOTA.

    You should have given them a more positive message.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    NickPalmer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Philip Davies losing in Shipley:)

    What? 18% gap!
    Can't see it.

    Some wild rumours at the mo....
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Workington

    Con +6,000
    Lab +5,000
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    A lot less 'this exit poll is bollocks' stuff now I see.

    And none of the "free money on Conservative majority".
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    brokenwheel said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot less 'this exit poll is bollocks' stuff now I see.

    It is bollocks, but not necessarily to the Conservative's advantage...
    Quite - if Labour hold onto seats in Wales, well, and if they win a few less from the SNP than hoped and Labour a few more, and you have very close numbers and no allies in the Commons for Tories other than DUP, while Labour will have SNP and LD.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    I do.
    So do I
    Sean's last sentence contains one answer
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    Yes, I think we're looking at 330 seats, but May is done. Literally fucking done.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    Where are the Tory gains from Labour going to come from?

    Don Valley, I hope!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @patrick_kidd: Prediction: Boris becomes PM, re-rats and takes Britain back into the EU.
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    Line from the severn to the wash separates two different countries.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    jonny83 said:

    alex. said:

    Smart money should be on David Davis IMO

    I would take Davis over Boris, I think Boris would be a huge mistake.
    If it's Boris Jeremy wouldn't have to wait till 2022
  • nielh
    nielh Posts: 1,307
    hunchman said:

    nielh said:

    If Amber Rudd gets decapitated in Hastings that is fascinating.
    5k conservative majority. 55% Brexit. Notwithstanding the labour council, large parts of the parliamentatery constituency are tory voting rural shires.
    The 2015 labour candidate did not stand because I think she thought it was a hopeless case.
    Large parts of Hastings are white working class and retired people from places like Tonbridge living in bungalows in suburbs.
    Labour struggled to actually even find a credible candidate.
    Tories made no effort at all here, must have thought it was in the bag, guess they put all their efforts in to Eastbourne, Lewes, etc.
    No one will miss Amber Rudd, she didn't fit in.

    Nicholas Wilson standing on an anti corruption HSBC ticket there I believe did huge damage. There are YouTube clips of the hustings. The moderator stepped in to save Rudd when the questioning got 'a bit difficult'. Hardly surprising given her wretched background and her appalling business career. Check it out on Companies House - the information is there.
    Not sure what impact it had locally, was covered in the independent paper (read by about 1% of the population). But what effect does this really have on an election? Must be something else going on.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenCatt/status/872961447533436933
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Trust the Mackems and Smoggies to let the side down.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    bigjohnowls said:

    Lab biggest party if Thurrock Northampton North

    Probably not if the Tories pick up seats in Wales and a lot in Scotland and a few in the North, though Labour clearly making gains in the South
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    camel said:

    Line from the severn to the wash separates two different countries.

    Age 44 separates two different countries.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Recount in Hastings.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    Yes, I think we're looking at 330 seats, but May is done. Literally fucking done.
    How do you get to 330?!
  • bookseller
    bookseller Posts: 508
    Word at the count here in OxWAB is that turnout is *really* up to over 70%
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    I'm going to be very drunk by the time 3 rolls round.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    I remember 12 months ago people were making jokes about Prime Minister Corbyn visting the Trump White House. Not looking so funny now
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    Yes, I think we're looking at 330 seats, but May is done. Literally fucking done.
    Seems like you are not happy !
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.

    But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Oddschecker is down
    IGIndex is down
    SPIN is still ip
    PaddyP is still up
    Spreadex still up

    You can still buy Con most seats at 93 on Spin if you're interested.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Boris is great for people who like Marmite. For those who don't, not so much. Davis.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
    I feel sorry for both Cameron and May, both capable politicians, both backed Remain both screwed by the current volatility and mood of the electorate, ie anti austerity, anti globalisation, anti immigration etc
    No need to feel sorry for either of them.

    Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
    Two politicians who both gambled big and lost
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Scott_P said:

    @patrick_kidd: Prediction: Boris becomes PM, re-rats and takes Britain back into the EU.

    He couldn't take the party with him on that even if he wanted.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    That David Herdson wobble is looking remarkably prescient.

    Yep, & Cyclefree.
    Big G as well.

    We'll need to draw up a new list as all the old models are now trashed.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Scott_P said:

    @mshafiquk: BREAKING NEWS: labour sources quietly confident that they may have won #SheffieldHallam and defeated Nick Clegg #GE2017

    Yay, the last of the quad gone, if true.
  • spire2
    spire2 Posts: 183
    Any ideas how the fixed term parliament act works in a hung parliament? If the conservatives dont get a majority , do labour get a cgance to put up a queens speech?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Small but significant swing to the Tories in Workington.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Con to lose Northampton North? Northampton ******* North!!!!

    University.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I knew Theresa May was defining herself as the antithesis of David Cameron, who knew she'd apply it to general elections too?
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Looking very 45/40-ish.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
    I feel sorry for both Cameron and May, both capable politicians, both backed Remain both screwed by the current volatility and mood of the electorate, ie anti austerity, anti globalisation, anti immigration etc
    No need to feel sorry for either of them.

    Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
    Two politicians who both gambled big and lost
    Cameron was forced into it by the Europhobic loons in his own party. May did it of her own volition.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The YouGov model is looking spookily accurate.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    bookseller said:

    Word at the count here in OxWAB is that turnout is *really* up to over 70%

    Would have to think Nicola Blackwood is in trouble
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    LucyJones said:

    I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.

    But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.

    I hope fox hunting is off the agenda for good
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Northampton North is 4% swing. 16% UKIP vote
  • JonathanD
    JonathanD Posts: 2,400
    JosiasJessop said:

    Floater said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.

    How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
    Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
    Glad someone is :-)
    I am.

    People want a change. Brexit showed that.
    I think Brexit showed that people wanted free stuff.

    Unfortunately, Tory leavers thought the Brexit vote was some giant endorsement of their philosophical view point on sovereignty, self-determination and foreigners.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Thank god there is an election finally that is really quite enjoyable
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    viewcode said:

    Oddschecker is down
    IGIndex is down
    SPIN is still ip
    PaddyP is still up
    Spreadex still up

    You can still buy Con most seats at 93 on Spin if you're interested.

    I had a stop-loss with SPIN at £250 but my current/cashout position shows at -£510.

    How do I bail out without losing the stop-loss? Is it automatic?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    spire2 said:

    Any ideas how the fixed term parliament act works in a hung parliament? If the conservatives dont get a majority , do labour get a cgance to put up a queens speech?

    May is still PM for now, and largest party would probably get first go.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    Workington

    Lab +8.8
    Con +11.6

    Lab majority 9.4%

  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Where are the Tory gains from Labour going to come from?

    Don Valley, I hope!
    TP will be remaining a bookie and PB poster methinks!

    I like the bloke, but not his politics.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarqueeMark said:

    Where are the Tory gains from Labour going to come from?

    Middlesbrough South perhaps. Swing to the Tories in neighbouring Middlesbrough.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Story seems to be ex-UKIP voters splitting 2:1 to Labour.

    Kippers are traitors.

    Why oh why did I ever think differently.
    Well if they were swayed by the free money from Brexit nonsense, why wouldn't they go for the free money from Corbyn nonsense ?

  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Looking very 45/40-ish.

    Who will be on 45?
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    old_labour said:

    Scott_P said:

    @mshafiquk: BREAKING NEWS: labour sources quietly confident that they may have won #SheffieldHallam and defeated Nick Clegg #GE2017

    Yay, the last of the quad gone, if true.
    I thought you were predicting 400 Con MPs ?

    :wink:
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I'm sorry I don't have the energy for another general election or EU related referendum in the next 5 years
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    not_on_fire said:

    I remember 12 months ago people were making jokes about Prime Minister Corbyn visting the Trump White House. Not looking so funny now

    No.

    I've never been concerned by an election result before now.
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Inverclyde, Coatbridge and the western isles going labour wtf
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    LucyJones said:

    I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.

    But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.

    Not a single person has mentioned fox hunting to me. Anywhere.

    It's the free sweeties and exhaustion with austerity.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    NOM nailed on, IMO.

    Should be 1.15-1.25, perhaps?
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    AndyJS said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Where are the Tory gains from Labour going to come from?

    Middlesbrough South perhaps. Swing to the Tories in neighbouring Middlesbrough.
    Places like Wakefield also.. maybe...
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Morley & Outwood is a Lab gain. UKIP voters will win it for them.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    Yes, I think we're looking at 330 seats, but May is done. Literally fucking done.
    How do you get to 330?!
    All the 'its close in x and Lab might take it' falling Con, and a few gains in Scotland.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    LucyJones said:

    I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.

    But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.

    I hope fox hunting is off the agenda for good
    And wiping out badgers too.....
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited June 2017
    there's a realignment going on. The Tories getting the Moron vote the Brexiteers the Old. Labour getting the Young the Graduates and the Remainers. Not me but Danny Finklestein! (words not verbatum)
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Workington

    Lab +8.8
    Con +11.6

    Lab majority 9.4%

    Another one where Labour are under-shooting YouGov :(
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I hope we don't have another GE this year.

    Please.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    No new election. We've had enough - minority government and fight for every vote.
    And Brexit? Whither May's ridiculous Hard Brexit?
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.

    Thank fuck.

    Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.

    No new election. We've had enough - minority government and fight for every vote.
    And Brexit? Whither May's ridiculous Hard Brexit?
    Then you just increase the UKIP vote, softish Brexit with free movement and some transition controls delayed could be the way but it will not be easy
    There will be barely any Brexit, whatever is the final result. On the Tory side, the City will make sure.

    The June 19th meeting will be postponed.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    13 results in:

    Middlesbrough
    Workington
    Basildon
    Swindon North
    Sunderland x3
    Newcastle x3
    Broxbourne
    Kettering

    That's 12. Which one am I missing?
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    LucyJones said:

    I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.

    But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.

    Indeed.
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.

    How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
    Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
    I thought you were supposed to be going to bed at 11pm?

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TravelJunkie said:

    Inverclyde, Coatbridge and the western isles going labour wtf

    SNP in free-fall? :D
  • handandmouse
    handandmouse Posts: 213
    edited June 2017
    [Deleted - I misread the percentages. Still they increased their vote in Workington]

    The pessimistic Labour Uncut forecast predicted an 11-point loss here!
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Don't know whether it is too many snacks or the results so far, but I feel sick.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    JonathanD said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Floater said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.

    How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
    Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
    Glad someone is :-)
    I am.

    People want a change. Brexit showed that.
    I think Brexit showed that people wanted free stuff.

    Unfortunately, Tory leavers thought the Brexit vote was some giant endorsement of their philosophical view point on sovereignty, self-determination and foreigners.
    This whole surprise result seems the biggest indictment of two years of Tory mishandling of Europe I've ever seen.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Labour hold Workington

    What was the swing
    And more importantly how does it compare to YouGov.
This discussion has been closed.

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