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SystemSystem Posts: 11,700
edited June 2017 in General
«13456714

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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    First?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    edited June 2017
    Second like May. In credibility at least.
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    bardigianibardigiani Posts: 19
    Second
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    I think we had a thread on Swindon North in 2015 :p
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Can I jut thank everyone who stood for parliament? You're all a heck of a lot braver than me, winner or loser.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Current mood: smug
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Does the exit poll predict Labour gaining Swindon South?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    So Swindon North even worse than the exit poll? Shit. Better in areas that won't help a Tory majority, worse in areas it very well would have helped them.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    W&SW Con up 10%.
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    do we have any updates from the midlands??
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534
    Us bedwetters were right then.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Sunderland West

    Lab +5.8
    Con +10

    Majority: 31.9% for Sharon Hodgson
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,008
    We've seen nothing so far to suggest that the exit poll was wrong. Absolute disaster for May, so far.
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    "Labour up 10 points in Swindon North - which Ed Balls points out wasn't in the top 100 target seats for Jeremy Corbyn"

    So not all that important/relevant then.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Almost nothing interesting now until 2am...
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    It's too early to call this.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,016
    FPT note Chelsea and Fulham is safe C but Kensington is 7k majority with some loyal Lab areas, 4k LD/G 2015 and very Remainish.
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    DougieDougie Posts: 57
    When Paul Waugh is saying that Labour wins Kensington and Chelsea, he must mean the Kensington seat. K&C doesn't exist anymore.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AndrewSparrow: “I am told that ‘the men in grey suits are livid’, Forsyth says https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/872949651779051520
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I expect Labour have taken Canterbury.

    If I were forced to guess right now, I'd say Jeremy Corbyn is forming the next government.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    If only everywhere was like Sunderland
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.
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    OliverOliver Posts: 33
    Holy shit at Thornberry's grin :smiley:
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    Theresa May - The PM who blew an unloseable election after threatening to take away the Englishman's castle...

    That is her fate. ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    HYUFD said:

    Sunderland West
    2% swing from Labour to Tories

    What good does that do them?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Brief crossover on Betfair from Tory maj to nominated.....after terrible swindon result.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    kle4 said:

    So Swindon North even worse than the exit poll? Shit. Better in areas that won't help a Tory majority, worse in areas it very well would have helped them.

    Not necessarily. Labour doing well in safe Tory seats is bad news for them. Wasted votes.
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited June 2017
    OUT said:

    Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.

    It's up to the membership not Ruth. Unless there's a coronation which seems highly unlikely;
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312
    from the current results it's looking like there is more polarisation in the seats. not good for anyone
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    PBers all over the place.

    Exit poll the worst in history ......

    NOM a certainty .....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    It's too early to call this.

    Based on the Swindon result Labour could be doing better than the exit poll.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hahaha Emily Thornberry looking like the cat that's got the cream.

    Gwaaaan girl!!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Crazy awful terrible Yougov Seat mdel

    Swindon North
    Con 52%
    Labour 35%

    Crazy awful reality

    Swindon North
    Con 53%
    Labour 38%
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,008
    Don't believe it, but if that's true it demonstrates how big a factor remainer anger is going to be.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Kensington and Chelsea omg
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Text from a CCHQ source to me

    'Please, please, please tell me it is going to be ok'
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.

    Swindon North was Brexity.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    Countryside Outer: Foxes GAIN
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Super quick thread header, well done TSE.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mo majority is better than a bad majority...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited June 2017
    This is the only time in my life I wanted the Tories to win a GE!

    Now I am worried my UKIP vote might let Labour into Hx and Uppers!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    Kensington and Chelsea omg

    Seat doesn't exist anymore. Been split into Kensington, and Chelsea and Fulham.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    The con leadership contenders look so fucking bad. David Davis, Boris, Hammond? Fuck me. They're May but with a penis.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Pauly said:

    OUT said:

    Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.

    It's up to the membership not Ruth. Unless there's a coronation which seems highly unlikely;
    She threatened to split from the uk party if he won last time.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Alistair said:

    Crazy awful terrible Yougov Seat mdel

    Swindon North
    Con 52%
    Labour 35%

    Crazy awful reality

    Swindon North
    Con 53%
    Labour 38%

    Buy stock in yougov? :D
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    stjohn said:

    PBers all over the place.

    Exit poll the worst in history ......

    NOM a certainty .....

    Emotionally in a bad place
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017

    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.

    Swindon North was Brexity.
    It was pretty much 50/50. (So a national bellwether perhaps?)
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Nice bit of nostalgia on ITV just now as sound not working in Gerry Adams interview
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    edited June 2017
    stjohn said:

    PBers all over the place.

    Exit poll the worst in history ......

    NOM a certainty .....

    Betfair, where opinion is matched with hard cash, has it at 50/50.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    Text from a CCHQ source to me

    'Please, please, please tell me it is going to be ok'

    Isn't that their job? :o
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650

    Don't believe it, but if that's true it demonstrates how big a factor remainer anger is going to be.
    Big French expat population in Kensington.
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    booksellerbookseller Posts: 421

    I expect Labour have taken Canterbury.

    If I were forced to guess right now, I'd say Jeremy Corbyn is forming the next government.

    Brexit, Trump, Corbyn - the full set. Blimey...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Alistair said:

    Crazy awful terrible Yougov Seat mdel

    Swindon North
    Con 52%
    Labour 35%

    Crazy awful reality

    Swindon North
    Con 53%
    Labour 38%

    My model had Con 50%, Lab 30%.

    With a 104 maj....
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    OliverOliver Posts: 33

    Text from a CCHQ source to me

    'Please, please, please tell me it is going to be ok'

    Oh to be a fly on the wall there now.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Oliver said:

    Holy shit at Thornberry's grin :smiley:

    Smuggest grin I've ever seen. Well, they've earned it.
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    So Swindon North even worse than the exit poll? Shit. Better in areas that won't help a Tory majority, worse in areas it very well would have helped them.

    Not necessarily. Labour doing well in safe Tory seats is bad news for them. Wasted votes.
    Well, first marginal is key to all this, but as North Swindon is right next to a seat which has been marginal not too long ago, and I cannot see why South Swindon would react all that differently in terms of surging Labour (and I'm told the Tory Council is pretty crap), then I think it likely they are doing well there too.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Kensington and Chelsea ? Excuse me ? I have not had a drop to drink.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.

    Swindon North was Brexity.
    Thought that it was Reamainy.

    In which case, no one knows what's going to happen.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Danny565 said:

    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.

    Swindon North was Brexity.
    It was pretty much 50/50. (So a national bellwether perhaps?)
    Reading seats could be vulnerable?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Thornberry getting way ahead of herself
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Gerry Adams really shouldn't be talking about May 'surviving' ...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    rcs1000 said:

    Almost nothing interesting now until 2am...

    Swindon South?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    edited June 2017
    @Mortimer

    No, it was the turning point. You are and were completely blind to how toxic it is for us to suggest that the homes people have worked hard for over their whole lives are going to be confiscated because the person dared to fall ill.

    It is a complete disaster policy it was spotted immediately by those of us in the Cameroon camp, but not your lot and you still deny the reality even though there is hard evidence of the Lab -> UKIP voters aren't turning out for us in places where homes have high values.
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    dazzadazza Posts: 28
    LAB have very well in Swindon North. Must have been some direct CON -> LAB.
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    OUT said:

    Pauly said:

    OUT said:

    Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.

    It's up to the membership not Ruth. Unless there's a coronation which seems highly unlikely;
    She threatened to split from the uk party if he won last time.
    Then she betrays her party.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Thornberry on BBC.
    Loach on Sky.

    Switch to ITV for the first time tonight...
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If Tories are doing better in safe Labour seats and Labour are doing better in safe Tory seats... then we have a massive increase in marginal seats for the election after.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    Is it just me or are the drinks getting progressively stronger?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Crazy awful terrible Yougov Seat mdel

    Swindon North
    Con 52%
    Labour 35%

    Crazy awful reality

    Swindon North
    Con 53%
    Labour 38%

    Buy stock in yougov? :D
    Yougov predicting Con 302, so less than the exit poll:

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

    Just putting it out there...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Crazy awful terrible Yougov Seat mdel

    Swindon North
    Con 52%
    Labour 35%

    Crazy awful reality

    Swindon North
    Con 53%
    Labour 38%

    My model had Con 50%, Lab 30%.

    With a 104 maj....
    Your model sounds pretty...ambitious. If yours is close to YouGov so far, where are you expecting it to differ?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Text from a CCHQ source to me

    'Please, please, please tell me it is going to be ok'

    This lot were sure of a majority and that the exit poll was wrong five seconds ago :lol: If they are bricking it off the back of Swindon North then they basically know nothing.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    'Shinners will not take seats' - Speccie live blog
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Crossover on Betfair, NOM now odds-on favourite.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Cutting bitchery from Thornberry.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Any news from Vauxhall? Got a very nice bottle of the vintage stuff ready to open.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    When will we see a seat that matters. It is all very well Labour increasing vote where it doesn't matter - we need a seat that is close!
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    chrisbchrisb Posts: 101

    Danny565 said:

    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.

    Swindon North was Brexity.
    It was pretty much 50/50. (So a national bellwether perhaps?)
    Reading seats could be vulnerable?
    I'm on Reading East at 12/1!
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Should I keep watching or just go to bed?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Ken Clarke now speaking on BBC
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Kensington and Chealsea is not a seat. It's Kensington, and I'd be suprised.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Chameleon said:

    Is it just me or are the drinks getting progressively stronger?

    Mine are.

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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Confused CNN woman saying they're expecting Newcastle North or South. Northern mate shouts at TV: Newcastle South is Gateshead!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    SMukesh said:

    Don't believe it, but if that's true it demonstrates how big a factor remainer anger is going to be.
    Big French expat population in Kensington.
    Who don't have a vote!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    The prospect of emigrating is looking more tempting by the second.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    SMukesh said:

    Don't believe it, but if that's true it demonstrates how big a factor remainer anger is going to be.
    Big French expat population in Kensington.
    Who cannot vote.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    Well, that's some cards aff the chaos table.

    https://twitter.com/SiobhanFenton/status/872951253587853312
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    SMukesh said:

    Don't believe it, but if that's true it demonstrates how big a factor remainer anger is going to be.
    Big French expat population in Kensington.
    But they don't have a vote.
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    Something extraordionary going on here. The Brexit election which did not even dare speak its name, where everyone mocked the LD's for making it a central plank - and now a swing to Labour seems to be exactly mapped on to the remain areas, largely, apparently by young voters who didn't turn out for the referendum.

    Brexit, Act II - The young.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    jonny83 said:

    Should I keep watching or just go to bed?

    That a serious question????
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited June 2017

    If Tories are doing better in safe Labour seats and Labour are doing better in safe Tory seats... then we have a massive increase in marginal seats for the election after.

    Clarke says Labour doing worse than national polls in Leave voting North and Midlands, Labour doing better than national polls in more Remain voting London and South
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Absolutely - any Tory gain in England must be suspect, given the exit poll expects big Tory gains in Scotland, meaning there must be lots of losses and not main gains in England.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    Ken Clarke for Prime Minister
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Ken Clarke - what a star!
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,086
    Dadge said:

    Confused CNN woman saying they're expecting Newcastle North or South. Northern mate shouts at TV: Newcastle South is Gateshead!

    Greater Newcastle. ;)
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    Prodicus said:

    Chameleon said:

    Is it just me or are the drinks getting progressively stronger?

    Mine are.

    I fear that for tonight to be okay they'll have to continue that way.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    both up 6000 in Newcastle North
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    Looks like Labour will do remain in areas, Tories in the Brexity areas.

    Swindon North was Brexity.
    Thought that it was Reamainy.

    In which case, no one knows what's going to happen.
    Wiltshire as a whole was 52-48 for Leave - even the rock solid seats for Tories won't be too heavily brexity I think.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Crazy awful terrible Yougov Seat mdel

    Swindon North
    Con 52%
    Labour 35%

    Crazy awful reality

    Swindon North
    Con 53%
    Labour 38%

    My model had Con 50%, Lab 30%.

    With a 104 maj....
    so what would happen on these results? Tory majority with your model?
This discussion has been closed.